Tinubu Drops Vice Presidential Ambition

By Tunde Abatan, Deputy Sunday Editor

Bola Ahmed Tinubu is no longer interested in the vice presidential race and is, instead, strategising on how the Action Congress (AC) would team up with another party to claim the presidency as well as win all the South Western States, Sunday Independent can reveal.

It also emerged that AC may have concluded plan to field the former anti-graft czar, Nuhu Ribadu as its presidential candidate, with Edo Governor and former Labour leader, Adams Oshiomhole, as his running mate.

That appears to be a fantastic political masterstroke, designed to woo the disenchanted Northerners who appeared certain to lose the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)’s presidential ticket to President Goodluck Jonathan and draw the organised Labour and younger elements who see Ribadu and Oshiomhole as emerging leaders they could count on.

Tinubu, former Lagos Governor and AC foremost financier, has long been rumoured to be in alliance talk with Muhammadu Buhari to float a joint presidential ticket, a very risky arrangement that would have repeated the Social Democratic Party (SDP)’s Muslim-Muslim ticket in the 1993 presidential ballot.

Late Moshood Abiola and Baba Gana Kingibe were Muslims, but the ticket won a landside across the country widely split along ethno-religious lines.

Tinubu’s rumoured VP ambition has seen him criss-cross the length and breadth of Nigeria in the last two years to build bridges as he consulted with top opposition leaders and political parties, including the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP).

He is said to have resolved to sit back and map out strategies for the AC to regain all its lost states in the Yoruba-speaking South West geopolitical zone as a bargaining chip for the party in its merger talks with other political parties in the country.

This agenda is believed to enjoy the backing of the five former governors of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) with whom he had been involved in series of mobilisation for the new party to be consummated from the years of consultations.

He was also said to have revealed the new move to his political associates and groups in the South West and across Nigeria in the last one month, a decision believed to be behind the lull and change of strategy in the political consultations among the opposition parties.

Sources close to the godfather of Lagos politics said he backs the decision by AC to support a younger element from the North with a running mate from the oil-bearing South South geo political zone, a deft move to dwarf the influence of Jonathan whose support base political scientists say is weak.

Tinubu and AC favour the candidature of Ribadu and Oshiomhole, two fellows whose support bases they believe could jolt the PDP in the ballot, sources said.

The choice of Ribadu over some other young Northerners like former Federal Capital Territory Minister, Nasir El Rufai, is said to have been informed by the high profile and public sympathy over his performance in the anti-corruption crusade, regardless of his romance with former President Olusegun Obasanjo and allegations that the latter used him to hound adversaries.

The choice of Oshiomhole as a running mate, sources added, flow from his coming from the same region as Jonathan and his wide appeal among Nigerians who relished his presidency of workers’ movement, Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC).

Jarus:

Ribadu is more marketable and strategic than Oshiomole.

At least not teh Oshiomole that is now flirting with IBB. But I don't think Ribadu wioll contest against GEJ that pardoned him.

Duroe:

@Moves.
I agree with you, if Ribadu wants to contest, they should make Pat Utomi/Donald Duke his running mate.
But we need to know what their manifestoes are, because it's not their personalities we want to 'chop', but what they have to offer.
Ribadu may be popular but that does not mean he will be a good President. We know Pat utomi had attempted to contest in the past. Do they have a vision of their own that will make them to desire to be the President or just an opportunity by AC to exploit the anticipated division in PDP? I don't think we need to get our President that way. We need a President that will come out with a 'dream'--'I have a dream' No the one a political godfather will just 'put 'am there'

Gbawe:

Not that simple. I don't think anyone can convince Duke and Utomi to be VP candidates to anyone since both men are fiercely nursing Presidential ambitions themselves. Also, the AC will be under pressure to produce a VP candidate who is already a Party member since Ribadu is not a member of the AC party. It is ideologically wrong for any Party to 'import' non-members for the position of President and VP.

Moves:

I disagree, both Men can be convinced to be VP in the hope that it would place them in better stead for taking a shot at the presidency than they are at present, Duke doesn't have a party structure in place; same goes for Pat Utomi, how did their last presidential adventure fare, I prefer Utomi cause he is well regarded in the SE; SW & SS,

Moves:

They should be replace Oshiomole with donald duke or Pat Utomi on that Ticket, [size=13pt]Let Oshiomole continue his governorship and prove himself at that stage, cos at present he has yet to achieve much in that position, [/size]

na_so:

Una dey make me laugh . Oshio what?

Who takes that kind of political risk in Nigeria? leave the governorship post for a Vp slot in a party that will hardly win the presidential race? Abeg make i laugh. 

Oshiomole will consider  that only on two grounds

1. When he has exhausted his 2 maximum shots at the governorship
                                OR
2. When forced by the party(like PDP) to drop that post. In this case A C is not that big as a party to bend oshiomole's hand.

As for ribadu, though he did arguably well at EFCC, i strongly believe he is not a good candidate for the presidency. He is way too combative as an individual for that post. Just one careless  utterance  from him in anger will set the country ablaze. If he wants to join AC, then fine, but should be considered for jobs like ministry of works, Power etc. As for him being the president it is definitely a bad choice. QED.

mikeansy:

Na So

I agree with you. I love Ribadu too but he is not a Presidential Material.

The office of President is not for angry men, Ribadu is very combative and wears his heart on his sleeve.

He will surely have good intentions but will not make a good President.

bk/babe90:

Was George W Bush "Presidential material"??!?!

Beaf:

This thread is toooooooooooooooooooo funny!
Imagine Oshiomole giving up his governorship for an imaginary VP post [b]in party that has only two governors (of which, he is one)![/b]Na rumour! The man is wiser than that BS, ANPP is a bigger party, but I doubt he will give up his governorship for a "VP" post there too. If all these micro parties want a foot in the door, they better merge into something sensible.

Na wa! NL go kill pesin one day sha!

JONATHAN AND NORTHERN HAWKS.

The Northern Political Forum that took place last week in Kaduna was a significant attempt by the Jonathan camp to win the PDP ticket that will enable him continue with his presidency until 2015, presumably. The meeting was attended by some notable figures from the three northern zones who, though short of rejecting zoning totally, unanimously approved the PDP ticket for Jonathan in 2011, according to what was shown on the national television. On the one hand, their decision raised hopes for Jonathan and, on the other, generates some fears about his ability to deliver on his promises.

After the welcome address by the Governor of Kaduna State who spoke the usual official language of Nigerian unity, the ball was set rolling by Solomon Lar who argued that zoning was adopted as a temporary measure which was meant to be disposed of when our democracy has matured, literally saying now is the time. Coming at his heel was Hassan Adamu. After affirming that no one can win the Presidency without the support of the North and recalling how the North has made sacrifices before to ensure that the country remains united, he posited that this is another opportunity where the region will exhibit its large heart. But this time, in return for its support, the President must be given what Adamu called a “northern agenda” which will protect the interest of the region. Adamu’s stand was strongly supported by the Sokoto Prince, Shehu Malami. The Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Bayero Nafada, also called on the North to make sacrifice for the sake of the unity of the country. He was practical in his argument. The North, he said, would have sought the same ticket were it in Jonathan’s shoes.

Then came the turn of zonal representatives of the PDP. Barnabas Gemade started by presenting the position of the Northcentral. He drafted God into the equation, saying zoning the presidency could be man-made as it was in 1999 or God ordained as it is in the case of Jonathan. Impliedly, Gemade is asking: Who are we to act against the wish of God then? But more than that, Gemade hinted the core argument of the pro-Jonathan group: the ticket of Yar’adua and Jonathan were joint and inseparable. So Jonathan should continue in 2011 as if he were Yar’adua. Kaulaha Aliyu from the Northeast joined the choir by arguing that zoning was a child of necessity and it is not required now. Ibrahim Ida presented the view of the Northwest PDP. However, the NTA transmission became inaudible and he was cut short. But with Shagari and Shehu Malami at the summit, I once can pretty right predict what Ida said.

Women, for the first time were called to express their opinion in such a gathering. They said, in the words of their spokeswoman, Mariam Waziri, that they are indifferent to zoning as “they” were not consulted when it was introduced in the first place. Pubic office, she said, should be given based on merit regardless of one’s religious and ethnic background. Jonathan merits it, in short, according to “northern women.”
So came the communiqué, read by Jerry Gana the foremost propagandist of Obasanjo’s third term bid, affirming the support of the gathering to, one, free and fair elections; two, the development of the North, promising a seminar to be held shortly on how the North would be developed economically; and, three, Jonathan’s ticket in 2011 election. The voice was Gana’s, but the logic was Gemade’s: the zoning ticket that produced Yar’adua and Goodluck as President and Vice-President respectively was a joint ticket that is inseparable; “the demise of one does not invalidate the other”, said Gana. Shi ke nan.

Of course, I forgot to mention the names of people like Mantu, Muhammad Abba Aji and so on. What these people said was obvious. I am rather more concerned by those I did not see, Adamu Ciroma, TY Danjuma, Iorchiya Ayu, Waku, Atiku and other proponents of zoning. Part of the problem is the misappropriation of names where any group today can claim to be representing a region. Are we therefore likely to see a counter-summit of pro-zoning supporters from the North and the Southeast? Or have they been beaten to submission? It is curious to note how appeal to national unity and patriotism is used now to repeal zoning just as they were used to introduce it in 1999,  If you have opposed zoning in 1999 you were unpatriotic; if you support it now you are still unpatriotic! Mhmm.

Politicians can be good philosophers, I think. Even Aristotle cannot argue better.

[b]It is logical for a summit like this to arrive at this conclusion given the track record of the politicians who gathered there and the nature of the country’s economy. I cannot remember any of the politicians at the summit who owns a surviving factory from which he earns a living. If anything, they have only helped to ruin the few in the North established by Lebanese and other northerners. Our political class, generally, is completely dependent on government, a reality that makes them compliant to the wishes of any incumbent. That is why coups were the only channels through which undesirable regimes could be removed for most part of African history.

Jonathan, therefore, must not see their effort as genuine. It is rather an expression of their dependency on whoever is in power.

For now, their support will sound like music to his ears, but he must not forget that the same class were responsible for the failure of all previous leaders. They rundown the Shagari government and rigged the 1983 elections (Shagari attended the summit); they toed the path of IBB in ruining our economy to non-recoverable levels and participated in his ill-fated transition program. They served as ministers of Abacha and approved his actions until when he failed to handover power to them. They brought Obasanjo to power and assisted him in running the most corrupt government and the worst civilian dictatorship. They conscripted Yar’adua knowing very well that he was terminally ill after failing to convince Nigerians to allow Obasanjo a third term. (One can say that majority of those who attended the summit were pro-Obasanjo, reincarnating the fear that Jonathan represents Obasanjo’s third term) And now, they are racing to support Jonathan by doing everything possible to deny the zoning they enacted ten years earlier when they wanted to sell a southern ticket to Northerners.[/b]

It is understandable and expected that the President is becoming expedient in his bid to win the PDP ticket. However, I have a number of fears. First, I am afraid when I heard them speak at the summit about a “northern agenda” that will take care of the interest of the region which they will present him with. Are they genuinely expecting Jonathan to correct the injuries they inflicted on the North or are they using such expression as subterfuge to make us believe that they have the North at heart? When in the communiqué they said they support free and fair elections, we are bound to ask when did any of them ever in his life practiced free and fair elections? Did not they rig in the NPN? Did not they abandon June 12 and followed Abacha? Did not they rig in 2003 and 2007? Only a fool would believe a person that has been rigging for fifty years but who suddenly claims to be a prophet of free and fair election.


Secondly, I see a lot of danger in their argument, for Jonathan, for the North and for the so-called zoning formula. They have created a room for further confusion in future in order to return and use the North again as a bargaining chip with the President in 2015. By hinging their support to Jonathan on the argument of “joint ticket” with late Yar’adua instead of issuing a totally new one to the incumbent, they created a room for the argument to be revisited at the expiration of the eight years of Yar’adua/Goodluck ticket, i.e. in 2015. The President will then need to come back and beg them for another term. Then we will be taken again through another circle of arguments and summits on zoning, allowing charlatans to raise emotions of religion and sectionalism again. The Yar’adua/Goodluck ticket is a northern ticket, they said. When it expires in 2015, are we expecting a bonafide southern ticket? Why did they find it difficult to declare the demise of zoning, once and for all, by accepting Baba Lar’s argument that it was only a temporary measure which does not suit Nigeria today and forever? Incidentally, they are free to do so because no other party is supporting zoning. I hope the PDP will be bold enough to scrap zoning in their NEC meeting this week such that the matter dies, once and for all, though not without some implications for the future of politics in the country.

Thirdly, the methods of Jonathan in gaining the ticket leaves a lot to be desired and I hope they are only short-term. The manner in which he sacked the PDP chairman portrayed him as bereft of any superior talent than Obasanjo. Power is the end. The type of people he recruited as foot soldiers in his ticket campaign suggests that he can hardly lead the reform needed by both his party and country. This inevitably leads to the fourth fear: that he may not be committed to free and fair elections, after all[b][/b].

Going by the above, which people and methods would Jonathan employ to garner his winning votes in 2011? We all know that it takes more than Jega’s INEC to achieve that. In fact, most of the work remains with the President who must contain the military, the police, and security agents who in the past have been at the forefront of election malpractices. He must convince the 27 PDP governors to respect the votes of citizens bearing in mind that none of them was voted before freely and fairly. He must subdue his party to give up rigging, its greatest strength and largest constituency. He must abandon people like Obasanjo who tells him that nobody can conduct a free and fair election. Finally, in case the elections are rigged on his behalf, he must allow the judiciary a free hand to decide on his fate and that of his PDP governors. I am beginning to feel that this is a tall ambition. Jega cannot do this on his behalf. I have raised this doubt in a previous article when I said that the chances of free and fair election are bright only if Jonathan himself is not running.

In conclusion we will advise the President to urgently review his methods if he wants to live above the level of mediocrity of many past Nigerian leaders. It is difficult in politics, admittedly, but not impossible. But merit always comes with sacrifice. He can still reach out to credible people – even within his PDP – in all parts of the country, run an open campaign and genuinely win if he is able to achieve the confidence of the majority. His present approach and companionship, however, compel us to start entertaining the fear that under him business will remain as usual. We have so advised his immediate two predecessors. None of them listened. Would he make a difference? Only time can tell.
Tilde,

19 July 2010

Gbawe:

Ridicule the AC all you want . That only shows that you do not understand that , for most politicians in Nigeria , Political Parties are only the means to actualise an end. Do we not see this with how politicians casually dump Parties that are their "ideological soulmate" (Atiku, et al) in a desire to move up ? Tomorrow , the AC could actually be the Party to beat if many of the Northern members of the PDP (as is covertly rumoured) eventually settle for working , wether overtly or covertly, for the party with the strongest Northern candidate because the need to support a Northern candidate outweighs every other consideration.

Did Yerima , a Nigerian lawmaker, not say that he is more respectful of the laws of Islam than that of Nigeria? Have some Northern organisations not come out to support him even if his child abuse practice is totally disgusting and deserving of condemnation by all Nigerians ? Read the article below (lenghty but worth reading)  to understand the 'support' you have been shouting that Jonathan enjoys .

http://www.saharareporters.com/article/jonathan-and-northern-hawks

Beaf:

. . .Yerima!

I hope and pray that you don't mean the cabal members, sleaze and those who confess more allegiance to religion than their country are going to pour glory and righteousness on the AC? Next thing, Boko Haram will be legalised.
So the Northern hawks that sent Ribadu into exile are going to support him as president. . . Even if pesin chop juju!

. . .But I remember saying this thread is so fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuunny!

Beaf:

This thread is toooooooooooooooooooo funny!
Imagine Oshiomole giving up his governorship for an imaginary VP post in party that has only two governors (of which, he is one)!
Na rumour! The man is wiser than that BS, ANPP is a bigger party, but I doubt he will give up his governorship for a "VP" post there too. If all these micro parties want a foot in the door, they better merge into something sensible.
Na wa! NL go kill pesin one day sha!

Gbawe:

I keep asking myself why folks cannot see that this argument many use to dismiss Ribadu lacks historical and pertinent logic !!! Have you noticed that I have never stated that this man or that man is not Presidential material? This is because I know that in Nigeria you don't go on to be President because you are or are not "Presidential material" . It is a mix of things (sagacity, kingmaker support , political machinery, outright popularity, financial backing , etc, etc) that churns up a Nigerian President. We do not operate a merit system that facilitates the emergence of a President who is "Presidential material" otherwise we would not have gained so many poor democrat Presidents !!!!

Was Shehu Shagari (a dull , charismaless and unknown school teacher) "Presidential material" in comparison to Obafemi Awolowo? Who became President between Awolowo and Shagari?

Was OBJ "Presidential material" in 1999?

Was dull , reclusive and charismaless Yar Adua more "Presidential" than Donald Duke when he 'won' the PDP Primaries on the way to eventually become the President of Nigeria?

Like I said it is easier to state that a candidate is not our choice than to speak as if history has informed us of who can be accurately deemed "Presidential material" in unpredictable Nigeria .

Anybody can be President in Nigeria in he ticks all the boxes for those who hold the aces in the battleground that churns up a Presidential victor. It is as simple as that. History has shown us that "Presidential material" means very little in Nigeria. I don't particularly think that Jonathan is Presidential material but he is our President today and he may retain his position next year if certain things align correctly for him.

PapaBrowne:

!!Killed it! Well described!! Only a drunk gambler would take such a risk! It is like selling off your million dollar home in say. . . Ikoyi, to buy a stake in an imaginary new island whose only proof of existence is a well drawn out Autocad presentation!
Oshiomole would never take such a fatal risk!! Except there is a provision where he can do that and still retain his Governorship position when he loses.

PapaBrowne:

Gbawe, you political calculations are flawed. Your reasoning is sharp, but your insight appears very limited. Many of the scenarios you've presented are political "impossicantities"!!
For instance, you have failed to see to the fact that Ribadu would never work against his number one Oga- Obasanjo. I repeat-never!! Especially not now when OBJ is the strongest politician in the country. Ribadu would not dump OBJ for Tinubu whose political clout does not stretch too far beyond the fringes of Lagos. Rather than Join AC, Ribadu would probably rather work with Soyinka's new party, but definitely not as a presidential candidate.

Secondly, AC cannot win the 2011 presidential elections. They don't have structures. I expect you to understand this. You need structures to win elections. For Obama to win elections he built massive structures out of young voters. Its so sad that AC is not attempting to build solid structures across the length and breath of Nigeria, despite what I think is a lot of goodwill that they should have.
There is barely any AC representation in the South south except  for Edo State. There is barely any AC representation in the East. APGA, PDP and PPA share the structures in the east. The North belongs to PDP and ANPP and probably CPC. Why is AC not doing anything to build structures in other states. Is it so expensive

And thirdly, Jonathan and probably Ribadu also are currently the most popular politicians in the country. You appendage that Jonathan is unpopular is false. Jonathan is already very popular for doing zero. And the reason is simple- Nigerians will identify with anyone who appears to be victimized. Jonathan thrives on that and the Northern hawks have failed to see that. The more they keep fighting Jonathan, the more they solidify his fan base.

sjeezy8:

Depends on how you look at it-

Ibb has said that PDP is his party and hes not changing any parties- If Jonathan wins PDP ticket and theres no other Northerners running as president aside from NUHU- then of course jonathan isnt winning that.

I cant really speak for the whole south but
I know AC- has three states votes- Lagos, Edo, Ondo( Labor party but has an alliance with AC in presidential elections) and Im sure that another state in the SW (probably Oyo) might hop on- making it atleast 4 southern state votes-

Middle belt- there 5 states +1 FCT- I know for sure atleast 3 of those states will vote for NUHU if he runs-

The core north - will def go for NUHU esp after being muscled out of the Zoning.

So honestly its up in the air. Its either vote PDP and jonathan or Vote out PDP and vote in NUHU.[/b]__________________________________________________________________

Thats if theres no rigging and free and fair election- which there probably wont be. Cause I see Jonathan as the same as OBJ.

BUT DEF JONATHANS PRESIDENCY ISNT ASSURED- because if Shagari can beat Awolowo,  Balewa(with Zik) beat Awo
Then its DEF possible that RIBADU can beat Jonathan

but I think it should be either Tinubu or Donald duke as vice president