without rotational presidency PDP is REALLY lookin unattractive.

If anything they should have had an agreement with the pdp to continue zoning but for 2011 zone it the SS and so on and so forth- instead of saying throw out the whole thing.

Thats just not a smart thing for them to throw it out right now- PDP looked good for Zoning but now they want to discontinue there no use of PDP.

sjeezy8:

without rotational presidency PDP is REALLY lookin unattractive.

If anything they should have had an agreement with the pdp to continue zoning but for 2011 zone it the SS and so on and so forth- instead of saying throw out the whole thing.

Thats just not a smart thing for them to throw it out right now- PDP looked good for Zoning but now they want to discontinue there no use of PDP.

Thats just making up the rule as they go, and thats not healthy for politics. What would have been the correct thing if zoning is to continue is to write it into the electoral act and let it be binding on all parties with clear definitions on who takes what when. Afterall PDP controls the whole NASS.

However I think the idea of zoning is down to politicians refusing to be innovative. I am not scared of the consequence of "no zoning" all we need in this country is a credible census; free and fair elections plus a National Identity System. Not Zoning.

Dancing around the problem is why nothing gets solved in Nigeria. If North provides the President in the next 30years so be it. The only way they can sustain that kind of success if every other factors like free and fair elections are resolved is if they govern up to standard. If they don't they wont win.

mikeansy:

The debate is no longer worth it because it seems to me your tactics is to dismiss any list provided as not a list or out of Jonathan's control. Its also amazing how you can claim that Jonathan and Yar'adua presented a vission in 2007, Yar'adua has failed Jonathan has not and yet you have not shown what Jonathan has done differently in other not to continue Yar'adua's failures now that he is in charge.

Shocking!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

No longer interested in this debate because stuffs are no longer adding up.

I wish you luck with your campaign for Jonathan. Nigerians will decide in 2011.

I never saw any worthwhile list and no effort was made to provide one; perhaps, because as you say, it doesn't add up.
It was all stuff like how he should be directing Jega (amounting manipulation) etc. Your position just wasn't thoroughly thought through.

Anyways I wish you Goodluck too.

sjeezy8:

without rotational presidency PDP is REALLY lookin unattractive.

If anything they should have had an agreement with the pdp to continue zoning but for 2011 zone it the SS and so on and so forth- instead of saying throw out the whole thing.

Thats just not a smart thing for them to throw it out right now- PDP looked good for Zoning but now they want to discontinue there no use of PDP.

It is a downright foolish thing to do and this is why the Northern Governors have skillfully dumped zoning at the door of the PDP. I see the PDP imploding if it bows to the inordinate ambition of an undeserving man (Jonathan) and his various insincere kingmakers . We gained an undeserving man (Yar Adua) not too long ago as President . We all saw how he fared. Logical to think that Nigerians will vehemently reject what amounts to , at best, another gamble (Jonathan) . Nigerians should watch who our most respected men and entities are getting behind as a clue to how they are thinking !!!!

Jonathan is intoxicated by power . He will think anything is possible . Naturally, there will be those who will 'support' him because of how the Presidency, and association with it,  is  a tool for stupendous self-aggrandizement in Nigeria. What Jonathan is too blind to fathom is that you cannot change the rules in the middle of the game when it is the most clannish region in Nigeria that will lose out.

Personally, I wan't the PDP to give their ticket to Jonathan because that is the type of 'hari-kari' action (borne of sheer "cash-and-carry" greed)  we need for Nigeria to see the back of this evil congregation of criminals . An asembly of unprincipled thieves , only held together by greed, will eventually implode. The PDP knows damn well that it is severely weakened minus zoning and with Jonathan as its candidate. Unacceptably stupendous rigging will be required for a candidate the political system and the voters will reject. Still , some mercenaries (Nwodo et al) would rather become billioniares even if that means setting Nigeria on fire with an unrealistic project.

There are a few men , if in Jonathan's shoes, Nigeria might get behind to defeat zoning via taking on the North.  Jonathan has not done enough for Nigerians to place him in the category of an iconic leader worth fighting for . This is why those who do not care for money are getting behind Ribadu while totally shunning Jonathan's 2011 ambition after taking to the Street to urge that he be made acting President. It is obvious that Jonathan's support base does not feature principled men and groups  . The supporters of Jonathan are mainly of the 'chop your dollar' Category and the article I supplied earlier illustrates this.

I am hoping the PDP , for the benefit of our nation, will prove it is a Party of mercenary Jackals that will let greed cloud collective reasoning.

@Na-so

My guy, your assertion that the "Presidency is Jonathan's to lose" simply does not seem to appear tenable to most Nigerian political analyst . Virtually non I have read from has posited that Jonathan's task will be easy or even achievable !!! It seems many do not think Jonathan's incumbency is a superior advantage that cannot be neutralised and made impotent because of the unpopularity of the entire project that will prompt realignment of hitherto opposed forces.

You should particularly take note of what is written below I have continued to cite , that majority of analyst identify with,  to understand that many , including those from Mr.President's Party, will unite to nullify any advantage Jonathan enjoy as per priviledge of office.


"If the PDP fields President Jonathan, and the Northern governors follow the decision of their elders as muted by its Chairman, Babangida Aliyu, which is clearly in favour of a Northern candidate, then a coalition of parties, as seen in the emerging ACN, which is a proposed merger of the AC, DPP, CPC, and some factions of the ANPP and PDP would field a Northern candidate".


http://www.independentngonline.com/DailyIndependent/Article.aspx?id=17832

Jonathan And The Politics Of 2011

•M. O. UYOUYO, writing from Abuja, examines the political calculus that will shape the next general elections…



Many people have criticised the statements credited to some Northern elders of the (North’s) capability to win elections in the country without the support of the South-South as the height of arrogance. To stereotype them as arrogant is to neglect the political sophistry that come with this veiled threat. Those in the South-South pushing for a Jonathan presidency without negotiating with the North for it are not only politically naive, but lack understanding of the Nigerian political environment.

One of the traditional allies of the North is the South-South. This region has produced the swing votes that decided presidential elections the North had interest in 1979, 1983, 1999 and 2003. The June 12, 1993 election is an exception because of its unprecedented nature in Nigeria’s history, which is one of the reasons the nation is yet to recover from it.

In 2011, I see a realignment of forces. If the PDP fields President Jonathan, and the Northern governors follow the decision of their elders as muted by its Chairman, Babangida Aliyu, which is clearly in favour of a Northern candidate, then a coalition of parties, as seen in the emerging ACN, which is a proposed merger of the AC, DPP, CPC, and some factions of the ANPP and PDP would field a Northern candidate. This scenario would see the North jettisoning its traditional South-South allies for a South-West VP, where the AC has relative strength, and a promise to back it in 2015. The South-West, which still sees the Obasanjo presidency as a misrepresentation of its ideology and interest would not want to miss such opportunity of an early return to power. This is what I see a Bola Tinubu or Babatunde Fashola, two of its emerging giants jumping at.

The South-South position in the above scenario doesn’t clearly point to majority of the votes going to Jonathan. Nigeria is an admixture of diverse ethnic and social groups, and this situation is more noticeable in the region. Some people in the region are already pointing to an Ijaw presidency, instead of the South-South it is supposed to be. Edwin Clarks’ fanatical support for Jonathan is perceived to be self-serving. The Urhobos and Itsekiris of Delta State, where Clark is from represented here by James Ibori and Emmanuel Uduaghan, former and present governors of the state who are also cousins are most likely not going to support Jonathan. The loss of Miriam Ali, wife of former PDP National Chairman, Ahmadu Ali and the party’s candidate for the Delta North Senatorial seat to Patrick Osakwe of the little known Accord Party with the support and connivance of the duo is still fresh in our memories. With the current travails of Ibori, which his people perceive as political victimisation, I don’t see them coming out strong in an election day to support Jonathan.

In Edo State, a victory for Jonathan come PDP would also put a cog in the wheels of Adam Oshiomhole’s re-election plans. Oshiomhole also has an eye on the presidency, and Jonathan’s election would end his dreams. This he will surely resist. The most beautiful bride in a possible regional voting behaviour is the South-East, whose chances of ruling the country would become thinner with a Jonathan or Northern presidency and a South-West VP for the latter in 2011. However, their leaders are not telling them the truth, and are rather using them as pawns in a chess game. The recent “Enugu Declaration” by the five South-East governors on July 4, 2010 that the zone would not contest the presidential and vice presidential elections in 2011, without consultations with the people through the zone’s famous “town halls/unions meetings”, referendum, public hearing etc. is a decision the zone may never recover from. The collateral/political damage this decision is going to produce would be more than the post-civil war “victor-vanquished syndrome”; although General Yakubu Gowon had then declared it was a “No victor, no vanquished”. The best chance of an Igboman ruling the country by 2015 is if Jonathan doesn’t run, and a South-South person is considered to have ruled the country, even if it was just to conclude a Northern term.

Beyond the regional blocks, a party/candidate that can lead an effective campaign which appeals to a majority of the populace, who are currently dissatisfied with the PDP, considered as one of the country’s major problems, will spell doom for a Jonathan candidature if we take our minds back to the Indian scenario earlier mentioned in my essay. In all of this, democracy and Nigeria is the winner. The Clinton/Al-Gore Democratic ticket was a South-South one that won the Bush-Quayle Republican ticket, which was a North-South ticket in the 1993 US presidential elections. What the politicians need to do is to tell us what they have for this country, and give the voters the opportunity, like in June 12, 1993 to decide. It is only then we can say we have started the journey towards becoming a nation.

@Na-so.

The parts in bold identify the thinking of the Political establisihment. With many , even when they do not support zoning, feeling that Jonathan is acting in an unprincipled manner same as his currently unpopular mentor (OBJ) . The ideological opposition to Jonathan's ambition , despite attempts at buying support, will be considerable. All the more beneficial for a decent Northern candidate the ACN will Present . The ACN  (Action Congress of Nigeria) is AC's new Mega platform after various planned mergers with other parties.

http://www.businessdayonline.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=13181:zoning-either-way-pdp-is-in-trouble-says-galadima&catid=85:national&Itemid=340

Zoning: Either way, PDP is in trouble, says Galadima


Thursday, 29 July 2010 01:15 Max Amuchie   


As Nigerians continue to deliberate on the outcome of the Northern governors’ meeting held in Kaduna on Tuesday, Buba Galadima, a member of the board of trustees of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), has said either way the matter of zoning the presidency in 2011 is resolved, the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is in trouble.

Speaking in an interview with BusinessDay, Galadima said if President Goodluck Jonathan decides to take the 2011 presidential ticket of the party by force, many people even among those publicly clamouring for him now would not work for his victory. On the other hand, if the North succeeds with the agitation for zoning, Jonathan would want to toe the line of the South African icon, Nelson Mandela, by conducting a free and fair election in which case the PDP might lose the 2011 election.

Galadima said he did not believe in zoning. “I have always stood against zoning because if you want to build a country, a nation, you should never allow any sectional, tribal or ethnic or religious consideration in your structuring of the country because once you allow that it will continue. If anybody wants to lead Nigeria he must reach out to all communities, to all religious persuasions and we have seen it work. (The late Moshood) Abiola reached out to Nigerians and he was able to defeat his only rival (Bashir) Tofa at the polling booth in front of his house (in Kano). That does not mean that what the PDP is doing is right. If you have even a gentleman’s agreement let alone a written document binding you together stand by it. By not doing it (zoning) they are trying to tell Nigerians that they should never be trusted with leadership”, he said.

This Gbawe sef . This analysis by this your adored writer(M. O. UYOUYO, writing from Abuja) is just too watery.

First it is not a balanced report, which does not in any way consider the odds that stand in jonathan's favour. I expect a professional to look at the factors that could boost GEJ's chances and the once that can scuttle it, and then take a subtle position.

If I understand the writer properly,
1. SW will go to the northern candidate,  because they have the VP slot with a promise to return the presidency to SW after the "northern" term.

2. SE will be divided, but the northern candidate still has an edge becuase GEJ only thins out the chance of an IGBO president in future.

3.The votes GEJ will get from the SS  will predominantly be IJAW votes while the itsekiris,the urhobos and the entire edo state goes to the northern candidate.

4.In the writers mind  , the "north" is one whole unit.

5. The writer assumes that in the end there will be only one "northern" candidate in the presidential race. Hence in the end Buhari,shekarau, Ibb,RIBADU,ATIKU,Danjuma Goje will merge forces at all cost.

6. That becuase of the general discontent for the PDP by the electorate, they will vote the consensus candidate of the "north" , regardless of who it turns out to be.

7 That the merger of  AC,DPP,CPC and Some factions of the ANPP and PDP will be big enough to have the kind of national coverage needed to win a presidential election.


By the assumptions above jonathan will win just 1 million votes, and the northern candidate 15 million votes. GEJ is finally disgraced for failing to heed popular advice.

Thanks for the analysis. Help me thank the writer too. GEJ has thrown in the towel. He will no longer contest.

^^^^

lol



these writers are always living their fantasies


does not forget that the odd are stacked in john's favour,


also just heard that shekaru just declared his intention on the ANPP platform? kai is he the most formidable candidate the "north" has to offer in opposition to john (that's if he finally deciedes to run)

kobikwelu:

^^^^

lol



these writers are always living their fantasies


does not forget that the odd are stacked in john's favour,


also just heard that shekaru just declared his intention on the ANPP platform? kai is he the most formidable candidate the "north" has to offer in opposition to john (that's if he finally deciedes to run)

Yes shekaru is strong in ANPP, He pushed Buhari out of the party. This move could still be interpreted a step to checkmate IBB's likely move , when he fails to get the PDP ticket. Anpp is just a 3 state party, even with the planned alliances it will still not measure up.

He is however no threat to Jonathan, even with all the noise these mallams are making.

Another thing i wait to see happen is how, BUHARI,SHEKARU and IBB can work together. Its like mixing diesel,water,and kerosene.

I know people will want to say the North knows how to manage things, but i beg to differ. Even in the second republic when notable notherners supported shagari, people like Aminu Kano (PRP) and Waziri Ibrahim (GNPP) did their own thing.

Babangida - PDP

Buhari - CPC

Shekarua - ANPP

Ribadu - AC

Na wa oh!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yes shekaru is strong in ANPP, He pushed Buhari out of the party. This move could still be interpreted a step to checkmate IBB's likely move , when he fails to get the PDP ticket. Anpp is just a 3 state party, even with the planned alliances it will still not measure up.

He is however no threat to Jonathan, even with all the noise these mallams are making.

Another thing i wait to see happen is how, BUHARI,SHEKARU and IBB can work together. Its like mixing diesel,water,and kerosene.

I know people will want to say the North knows how to manage things, but i beg to differ. Even in the second republic when notable notherners supported shagari, people like Aminu Kano (PRP) and Waziri Ibrahim (GNPP) did their own thing.

thats the problem with the so called "north"

who would step down for who

IBB step down for shekaru?? for wetin? wen dat 1 go happen
do they tink that he endured all that humiliation during the OBJ era just to step down for shekaru(a small boi )


the key is who would win the PDP primary, IBB IS LOBBYING for the ticket

or is it buhari that has been labouring and now,  was forced out?? and you expect him to step down for the shekaru/IBB

lets wait for the much vaunted "north" (in gbawe's ) word



**************munching guguru and zobo**********

Gbawe , wetin dey happen na? u never still see anoda article?

na_so:

Gbawe , wetin dey happen na? u never still see anoda article?

My brother, the debate don finish - more or less. Wetin remain na for all of us to wait and see. We have all postulated our theories. Let us now wait and see what actually happens . My point with the articles is that most I have read , even if permutations are varied, roughly consider Jonathan's mission a very difficult one. Not at all the done deal you , and many folks from the ND region ,  want to assume it is.

Overall I think Jonathan will find it difficult to achieve what OBJ failed to. We can talk about constitition and other minute details as evidence of the difference between OBJ's third term project and Jonathan's 2011 project but both are the same IMO.

OBJ , as a man who had benefited from and agreed to a pact within his own politica party, tried to cheat the most clannish region in Nigeria to a Presidential slot the region correctly feels has been zoned to it .

I say "correctly" because the PDP was designed to be the only Party , for many reason , that can realistically win the Presidency . Many PDP members would actually see Jonathan's ploy as an attempt , using the hitherto 'gauranteed' winning platform of the PDP, to usurp a Presidential term he would not have had the ideological right or support to aspire to had Yar Adua not died !!!!  This is why some PDP folks have come out to ask Jonathan respect a pact he benefited from and assented to .

Jonathan , like OBJ , is a PDP President who is trying to move the goal post in the middle of the game. Let see if he succeeds . You say he will and I feel he won't . We will have to wait and see because , aside from time , no amount of writing will prove either of us right or wrong.

Gbawe:

My brother, the debate don finish - more or less. Wetin remain na for all of us to wait and see. We have all postulated our theories. Let us now wait and see what actually happens . My point with the articles is that most I have read , even if permutations are varied, roughly consider Jonathan's mission a very difficult one. Not at all the done deal you , and many folks from the ND region , assume it is.

Overall I think Jonathan will find it difficult to achieve what OBJ failed to. We can talk about constitition and other minute details as evidence of the difference between OBJ's third term project and Jonathan's 2011 project but both are the same IMO.

OBJ , as a man who had benefited from and agreed to a pact within his own politica party, tried to cheat the most clannish region in Nigeria to a Presidential slot the region correctly feels has been zoned to it .

I say correctly because the PDP was designed to be the only Party , for many reason , that can realistically win the Presidency . Many PDP members would actually see Jonathan's ploy as an attempt , using the hitherto 'gauranteed' winning platform of the PDP, to usurp a Presidential term he would not have had the ideological right or support to aspire to had Yar Adua not died !!!! This is why some PDP folks have come out to ask Jonathan respect a pact he benefited from and assented to .

Jonathan , like OBJ , is a PDP President who is trying to move the goal post in the middle of the game. Let see if he succeeds . You say he will and I feel he won't . We will have to wait and see because , aside from time , no amount of writing will prove either of us right or wrong.

Kool. You have a point here. Lets wait and see. in politics 24 hours is a very long time. We still have weeks to even the party primaries.