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Ibb Has A Very Slim Chance Of Wining 2011 Presidential Election, See My Analysis - Politics - Nairaland

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Ibb Has A Very Slim Chance Of Wining 2011 Presidential Election, See My Analysis by banom(m): 6:02pm On Sep 16, 2010
I saw a post where babaerly was talking about his ridiculous " One reason We Need Ibrahim babangida  as president "  Though i think he was either high or drunk or simply wanted to have some fun by telling us that we need to vote for IBB because he is chop i Chop, a good reason indeed,

The following was my response to him and his cohorts and what i see about the mess and doom IBB is heading to. The thread can be found here. https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-513456.0.html

Honestly, as an IBB supporter, i believe you either do not know what you just said or you are making a fool of IBB himself, IBB is one candidate who's campaign is strongly based on Tribal or regional power shifting sentiments ( PDP ZONING) and you are here talking about Ethnocentric and sentimental political ideologies,

I am an election campaign strategist, and studying the  current election situation and how the many contestants are strategizing to win this 2011 election, it is obvious that IBB's campaign started on a very wrong path,

See how IBB plans to win, he intends to use the PDP agreed zoning arrangement to rally the majority of northerners to his side, and been the most powerful and influential contestant from the North, he can easily shuffle the other contestants from the north and get them to back down for him, if this works perfectly, it will bring him a lot of votes from the north, but this will not be enough to win the presidential election, on the other hand, he needs to get a good vote from the south as well, but he has a hopeless case here, it is obvious 70% of Yorubas will vote for a Dog or donkey in 2011 election  than voting for IBB, while  90% of Niger Deltans will prefer to die or tear Nigeria apart than voting for  any other candidate except president Goodluck Jonathan, so the only southern part he has a fair ground to get a good Vote to add up to any vote he will get from the North is In Igbo land, and this he hopes to get by talking about the post Biafran war situation of the Igbos and promising to hand over powerto them in 2015,

His strategy is based on emotional sentiment than anything strong or brilliant, and this can easily be countered and defeated by a superior and more brilliant and practical strategy , Some analyst have tried to analyze IBB's chances of victory in this 2011 election, they listed his strength and weaknesses, but this is a  list of some superfluous qualities they think will play out well for or against him in this election. one of such analysis is that his strengths are experience, Charisma and Dynamism and his weaknesses are june 12, Delegiwa, 12 billion dollar oil windfall and so on, all these are needless  and wont take him far or work much against him, 

The problem with some election battles like this is that once you have committed to some positions and issues, you cant back down again, and going further with some certain issues will hurt you than helping you, IBB's campaign started from the horns of a dilemma , his campaign is not seductive and is filled with unnecessary or negative sentiments,  thinking he will get the votes of the Igbos by bringing up the issues of Biafran war and handing over power to the Igbos in 2015  is hopeless and silly to say the least, this can easily be countered by asking him why 2015 for the Igbos ?, why not now  ? the northerners have held it for 39 years , why do they want another 4 years at the expense of people who have not enjoyed it for a single day,  is that not cheating and greediness ?and IBB is a man notorious  for cunning and deception and no one  will take him seriously, on the other hand, trying to get the vote of the northerners by using the PDP zoning sentiment is a negative campaigning that will equally work against him, this can equally be countered by highlighting all the negative sides of Zoning and  making it clear that it will lead Nigeria backward than forward and letting every one know that it is a mere PDP agreement and has no single place in our national constitution, IBB is hoping to get some vote from Niger delta by using a Niger delta man as his running mate, but that is equally hopeless, greater majority of Niger deltans will prefer their son as a president than a vice president, after all, opportunity comes but ones,

Finally, Ibb Has three main weaknesses or opposition in this 2011 election, the Greatest of them is the ambition of president Goodluck Jonathan to remain in office beyond 2011, his power of incumbency, the fact that he is from Niger delta, a region that her resources made the unity and survival of Nigeria possible but have not enjoyed a shot at the leadership of the nation they have been feeding for more than half a century now, even foreign power brokers  will prefer to protect their oil interest in Nigeria by supporting Goodluck Jonathan than supporting IBB and his tribal sentiments that has nothing to benefit them, the second opposition IBB has is his dubious past, having ruled Nigeria in the past for 8 years and Nine months, and with a dirty record of corruption, illegality , murder , dictatorship and denial and betrayal of the most promising democracy in our history, it will be funny to think the same people he denied democracy will elect him as  their "democratic president", and many Nigerians have a hopeless believe that most of their problems is from their past leaders and IBB is top on the list , some even call him, evil genius, chop i chop, father of corruption and so on, and they will be too or three glad to try a fresh new leader, his third weakness is a northern choice that the southerners will be satisfied with, even if the northerners will produce the next president of Nigeria, is going to be a candidate that will be agreed by the southerners and the northerners, and every one knows they will never settle for IBB, beside Obasanjo is one past leader of our nation that commands the highest influence in our political affairs, and there is one thing he wouldn't want to see happen in Nigeria,(any president that will take away from him the record of been the person who ruled Nigeria most), and the northerners will care more about a northerner becoming the  president of Nigeria than whom that person is.

IBB has a very slim chance of been the president of Nigeria in 2011, but there is still possibilities for him been elected but it will need a more brilliant, positive and effective campaigning, not the present mess he is doing right now.

Good day fellow country men
Re: Ibb Has A Very Slim Chance Of Wining 2011 Presidential Election, See My Analysis by sbeezy8: 6:11pm On Sep 16, 2010
Jonathan is igbo in the book of MANY people, he will be looked at by the others as igbo anyways.
Goodluck Ebelechkwu Azikwe Jonathan

so . . . there is your igbo president.
Re: Ibb Has A Very Slim Chance Of Wining 2011 Presidential Election, See My Analysis by legendprac(m): 8:30pm On Sep 16, 2010
@op, I agree with u, but do I dictate a 'pls hire me' tone in your last lines?
Re: Ibb Has A Very Slim Chance Of Wining 2011 Presidential Election, See My Analysis by banom(m): 2:32pm On Sep 17, 2010
sbeezy8:

Jonathan is igbo in the book of MANY people, he will be looked at by the others as igbo anyways.
Goodluck Ebelechkwu Azikwe Jonathan

so . . . there is your igbo president.



are you serious or you are just kidding ?
Re: Ibb Has A Very Slim Chance Of Wining 2011 Presidential Election, See My Analysis by saintchux(m): 3:25pm On Sep 17, 2010
sbeezy8:

Jonathan is igbo in the book of MANY people, he will be looked at by the others as igbo anyways.
Goodluck Ebelechkwu Azikwe Jonathan

so . . . there is your igbo president.



So is Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi, Peter Odili, Celestine Omeha, Meford Okilo Ibo Victor Attah?

All these are ibo names.
Re: Ibb Has A Very Slim Chance Of Wining 2011 Presidential Election, See My Analysis by bigben3: 3:34pm On Sep 17, 2010
@topic,which election are you talking about? 2010 or 2011?
Re: Ibb Has A Very Slim Chance Of Wining 2011 Presidential Election, See My Analysis by banom(m): 4:38pm On Sep 17, 2010
big-ben:

@topic,which election are you talking about? 2010 or 2011?

Is there any general election in Nigeria in 2010 ?
Re: Ibb Has A Very Slim Chance Of Wining 2011 Presidential Election, See My Analysis by banom(m): 1:40pm On Sep 21, 2010
legendprac:

@op, I agree with u, but do I dictate a 'pls hire me' tone in your last lines?

hahaha You are funny, i shouldn't beg any one to hire me on a public forum, if i want to be hired, i will personally write the candidate of my choice and propose to offer my service, that is how the Job is done, besides, IBB is the one that should be praying to Allah to help him in facing any opponent I am strategizing for, because i am going to crush him into total submission .
Re: Ibb Has A Very Slim Chance Of Wining 2011 Presidential Election, See My Analysis by Ayowumie(m): 3:12pm On Sep 21, 2010
@poster, Thanks for the analysis. It is accurate but to a fault. Your analysis also reflects some sentimental flaws that are been sentimentally explored by our corrupt politicians. By talking about the power of incumbency(am sure if you had your way, you would love to strategize for GEJ), you are reverting to partisan and reckless politicking as the only avenue for winning an election. What you are purportedly saying is that Jonathan would rig the election using the power of incumbency. Is that your own way of strategising? A candidate should be field and elected based on the "soundness of his arguments"- highest qualification in all standard (merits). If i were a strategist(which you said you are) and  indirectly supporting the candidature of GEJ, I would never pin point incumbency as advantage (albeit it is)through which people should vote him. Strategies of electioneering every where in the world are some times sentimentally driven (read about the 2008 Obama's election). I am not in support of IBB, but the fact that he is resorting into tribal sentiment as a basis of campaigning does not discredit him or make his campaign strategies flawed.(although his merits are questionable).
      Also, you said the Igbos have not tasted power for a single day. Is that supposed to be an exaggeration? If it is, you definitely over stretched it. And i don't buy into it - Ironsi was a man of Igbo extraction.
     IBB is not using a Niger-Deltan as his running mate. Please do not spread falsehood in the name of strategic analysis.

sbeezy8:

Goodluck Ebelechkwu Azikwe Jonathan



Goodluck Ebele Jonathan did not spell his name as Azikwe but rather[b] AZIKIWE[/b]     whatever that means
Re: Ibb Has A Very Slim Chance Of Wining 2011 Presidential Election, See My Analysis by Nobody: 3:32pm On Sep 21, 2010
xxxxxx
Re: Ibb Has A Very Slim Chance Of Wining 2011 Presidential Election, See My Analysis by banom(m): 1:12pm On Sep 22, 2010
Ayowumie:

@poster, Thanks for the analysis. It is accurate but to a fault. Your analysis also reflects some sentimental flaws that are been sentimentally explored by our corrupt politicians. By talking about the power of incumbency(am sure if you had your way, you would love to strategize for GEJ), you are reverting to partisan and reckless politicking as the only avenue for winning an election. What you are purportedly saying is that Jonathan would rig the election using the power of incumbency. Is that your own way of strategising? A candidate should be field and elected based on the "soundness of his arguments"- highest qualification in all standard (merits). If i were a strategist(which you said you are) and  indirectly supporting the candidature of GEJ, I would never pin point incumbency as advantage (albeit it is)through which people should vote him. Strategies of electioneering every where in the world are some times sentimentally driven (read about the 2008 Obama's election). I am not in support of IBB, but the fact that he is resorting into tribal sentiment as a basis of campaigning does not discredit him or make his campaign strategies flawed.(although his merits are questionable).
      Also, you said the Igbos have not tasted power for a single day. Is that supposed to be an exaggeration? If it is, you definitely over stretched it. And i don't buy into it - Ironsi was a man of Igbo extraction.
     IBB is not using a Niger-Deltan as his running mate. Please do not spread falsehood in the name of strategic analysis.

Goodluck Ebele Jonathan did not spell his name as Azikwe but rather[b] AZIKIWE[/b]     whatever that means

Thanks for your brilliant response, i really appreciate,

First of all. understand that i do not personally support or oppose any of IBB or GEJ, i was only trying to point out to Kosovo the direction IBB's campaign is leading to, and if i am supporting GEJ, i wouldn't have said that, i would have kept mum and allow him to commit more to his negative direction so he will destroy himself, Just as Napoleon Bonaparte said " Do not interrupt a man at the process of hanging himself" Strategy is simply effective plan of actions aimed at achieving a goal, in this case , an effective plan of actions aimed at winning the 2011 presidential election, and in facing an opponent in an election , there is such thing as Nailing, nailing means holding your opponent in a loosing position or issue and giving him no single room to separate himself from it and IBB started his campaign in a way he was well ripped for a deadly nailing, Obama did it to MCCain in 2008 by supergluing him to all the problem America was facing as a result of failed policies of former president Bush, Obama instead of making it an issue of Bush failed policies, he made it an issue of failed republican party's policies in which Mccain was part of and MCCAIN had no other option , he cant deny that he was no republican and never participated in making the policies,on the other hand agreeing to it was destructive, that was pure strategic nailing and this can be done to IBB in some issue he has committed himself  to, are you not seeing how GEJ is running around some issues ,never committing or distancing  himself completely from any thing, that is a better strategic approach to take now that the election is still at  early stage, that is what i was trying to point out in that analysis not indirectly supporting any candidate,  do you know i received three emails from people a day after i made that analysis, one was an invitation to work with a candidate, the other was an abuse and threat to me, while the last one was a kind of compliments by a fellow nairalander who wished to know more about me,

Talking about the power of incumbency,  i didn't say it because i personally support one man using the power of Aso rock to high jack  our votes and decisions but you and i can never deny it when it comes to elections in Nigeria, IBB did it in 1993 and 1999, Obasanjo did it in 2003 and 2007, What did you do about it ? GEJ has the power and like every one else, he will make use of it to win, if you or IBB is in that position, i am 100% sure you will  equally make use of it and then you will find nothing wrong with it. i pointed it out because it is the greatest opposition or problem IBB will face in this election , who is Goodluck Jonathan to stand in the way of IBB if not for the power of incumbency ? the only solution to this problem is the masses, if the masses can actively get involved, exercise and defend their franchise, then the power of incumbency wont matter, Oh my heavenly father, the masses i am talking about here is Nigerian masses, the most timid masses on earth when it comes to franchise and patriotism, until that day when the new breeds of Nigeria  will start exercising their franchise , the power of incumbency still holds water,

Finally i meant that the Igbos have not ruled Nigeria for a single day after the civil war and not after the independence,

Have a wonderful day.
Re: Ibb Has A Very Slim Chance Of Wining 2011 Presidential Election, See My Analysis by Ayowumie(m): 2:21pm On Sep 22, 2010
banom:

Finally i meant that the Igbos have not ruled Nigeria for a single day after the civil war and not after the independence,

Have a wonderful day. 
Your reply implies maturity. I was half expecting some insult like some nairalanders. Thank you!
Re: Ibb Has A Very Slim Chance Of Wining 2011 Presidential Election, See My Analysis by banom(m): 8:42pm On Sep 22, 2010
Ayowumie:

Your reply implies maturity. I was half expecting some insult like some nairalanders. Thank you!

you are highly welcome, i do appreciate constructive critism more than people's superficial praises.
Re: Ibb Has A Very Slim Chance Of Wining 2011 Presidential Election, See My Analysis by texazzpete(m): 9:01pm On Sep 22, 2010
@banom
Abeg modify the title ASAP. Which one be 2001 presidential elections?
Unless, of course, IBB has mastered time travel.
Re: Ibb Has A Very Slim Chance Of Wining 2011 Presidential Election, See My Analysis by youngmonie: 9:17pm On Sep 22, 2010
one thing that scares me for jonathan is that u can never trust all dose governors that u saw at the declaration . dey can support him then dn den go behind him to support another person and the primaries as well is done at state level nd not in abuja. lastly the north is negotiating on one candidate withing pdp dat wil represnet ahm so they dont split der vote by that, i fear for jonathan


And pdp is just an unreasonable party, wer d masses are suffering nd some people cannot affored three meals a day pdp is selling forms at useless pricess, 10million naira just ot buy the form ohh.what bout the campaign expense, its a gud tax payers of nigeria that wil bear dat onee
Re: Ibb Has A Very Slim Chance Of Wining 2011 Presidential Election, See My Analysis by banom(m): 11:07pm On Sep 22, 2010
texazzpete:

@banom
Abeg modify the title ASAP. Which one be 2001 presidential elections?
Unless, of course, IBB has mastered time travel.

Is now in perfect shape,thanks for reminding me,
Re: Ibb Has A Very Slim Chance Of Wining 2011 Presidential Election, See My Analysis by legendprac(m): 4:24pm On Sep 24, 2010
banom:

hahaha You are funny, i shouldn't beg any one to hire me on a public forum, if i want to be hired, i will personally write the candidate of my choice and propose to offer my service, that is how the Job is done, besides, IBB is the one that should be praying to Allah to help him in facing any opponent I am strategizing for, because i am going to crush him into total submission .

Ok ooo, Make I believe u
Re: Ibb Has A Very Slim Chance Of Wining 2011 Presidential Election, See My Analysis by banom(m): 1:58pm On Oct 04, 2010
legendprac:

Ok ooo, Make I believe u

if you like
Re: Ibb Has A Very Slim Chance Of Wining 2011 Presidential Election, See My Analysis by banom(m): 6:30pm On Jan 15, 2011
banom:

I saw a post where babaerly was talking about his ridiculous " One reason We Need Ibrahim babangida  as president "  Though i think he was either high or drunk or simply wanted to have some fun by telling us that we need to vote for IBB because he is chop i Chop, a good reason indeed,

The following was my response to him and his cohorts and what i see about the mess and doom IBB is heading to. The thread can be found here. https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-513456.0.html

Honestly, as an IBB supporter, i believe you either do not know what you just said or you are making a fool of IBB himself, IBB is one candidate who's campaign is strongly based on Tribal or regional power shifting sentiments ( PDP ZONING) and you are here talking about Ethnocentric and sentimental political ideologies,

I am an election campaign strategist, and studying the  current election situation and how the many contestants are strategizing to win this 2011 election, it is obvious that IBB's campaign started on a very wrong path,

See how IBB plans to win, he intends to use the PDP agreed zoning arrangement to rally the majority of northerners to his side, and been the most powerful and influential contestant from the North, he can easily shuffle the other contestants from the north and get them to back down for him, if this works perfectly, it will bring him a lot of votes from the north, but this will not be enough to win the presidential election, on the other hand, he needs to get a good vote from the south as well, but he has a hopeless case here, it is obvious 70% of Yorubas will vote for a Dog or donkey in 2011 election  than voting for IBB, while  90% of Niger Deltans will prefer to die or tear Nigeria apart than voting for  any other candidate except president Goodluck Jonathan, so the only southern part he has a fair ground to get a good Vote to add up to any vote he will get from the North is In Igbo land, and this he hopes to get by talking about the post Biafran war situation of the Igbos and promising to hand over powerto them in 2015,

His strategy is based on emotional sentiment than anything strong or brilliant, and this can easily be countered and defeated by a superior and more brilliant and practical strategy , Some analyst have tried to analyze IBB's chances of victory in this 2011 election, they listed his strength and weaknesses, but this is a  list of some superfluous qualities they think will play out well for or against him in this election. one of such analysis is that his strengths are experience, Charisma and Dynamism and his weaknesses are june 12, Delegiwa, 12 billion dollar oil windfall and so on, all these are needless  and wont take him far or work much against him, 

The problem with some election battles like this is that once you have committed to some positions and issues, you cant back down again, and going further with some certain issues will hurt you than helping you, IBB's campaign started from the horns of a dilemma , his campaign is not seductive and is filled with unnecessary or negative sentiments,  thinking he will get the votes of the Igbos by bringing up the issues of Biafran war and handing over power to the Igbos in 2015  is hopeless and silly to say the least, this can easily be countered by asking him why 2015 for the Igbos ?, why not now  ? the northerners have held it for 39 years , why do they want another 4 years at the expense of people who have not enjoyed it for a single day,  is that not cheating and greediness ?and IBB is a man notorious  for cunning and deception and no one  will take him seriously, on the other hand, trying to get the vote of the northerners by using the PDP zoning sentiment is a negative campaigning that will equally work against him, this can equally be countered by highlighting all the negative sides of Zoning and  making it clear that it will lead Nigeria backward than forward and letting every one know that it is a mere PDP agreement and has no single place in our national constitution, IBB is hoping to get some vote from Niger delta by using a Niger delta man as his running mate, but that is equally hopeless, greater majority of Niger deltans will prefer their son as a president than a vice president, after all, opportunity comes but ones,

Finally, Ibb Has three main weaknesses or opposition in this 2011 election, the Greatest of them is the ambition of president Goodluck Jonathan to remain in office beyond 2011, his power of incumbency, the fact that he is from Niger delta, a region that her resources made the unity and survival of Nigeria possible but have not enjoyed a shot at the leadership of the nation they have been feeding for more than half a century now, even foreign power brokers  will prefer to protect their oil interest in Nigeria by supporting Goodluck Jonathan than supporting IBB and his tribal sentiments that has nothing to benefit them, the second opposition IBB has is his dubious past, having ruled Nigeria in the past for 8 years and Nine months, and with a dirty record of corruption, illegality , murder , dictatorship and denial and betrayal of the most promising democracy in our history, it will be funny to think the same people he denied democracy will elect him as  their "democratic president", and many Nigerians have a hopeless believe that most of their problems is from their past leaders and IBB is top on the list , some even call him, evil genius, chop i chop, father of corruption and so on, and they will be too or three glad to try a fresh new leader, his third weakness is a northern choice that the southerners will be satisfied with, even if the northerners will produce the next president of Nigeria, is going to be a candidate that will be agreed by the southerners and the northerners, and every one knows they will never settle for IBB, beside Obasanjo is one past leader of our nation that commands the highest influence in our political affairs, and there is one thing he wouldn't want to see happen in Nigeria,(any president that will take away from him the record of been the person who ruled Nigeria most), and the northerners will care more about a northerner becoming the  president of Nigeria than whom that person is.

IBB has a very slim chance of been the president of Nigeria in 2011, but there is still possibilities for him been elected but it will need a more brilliant, positive and effective campaigning, not the present mess he is doing right now.

Good day fellow country men

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