Let me be honest: when I wrote the article, “Calm Down, IBB Will Not Run”, some months ago, my intention was to draw him out. I was tired of his frequent threats to run for president. In 2003, the intimidation was too much. His in-law, Chief Sonny Okogwu, threatened hell, saying there was a “pact” that the North would take back power after four years. Former President Olusegun Obasanjo was, therefore, told not to run in 2003. We were even informed that Obasanjo had signed an agreement to do only one term. At the end of it all, IBB disappeared. Since he obviously could not get the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) ticket, I thought IBB would test his popularity by contesting on another platform. Smart guy, he just chickened out. Then his supporters started saying it was because he respected Obasanjo. If he had run, they said, he would have won easily.

Then came the 2007 election, then came Ibrahim Babangida again. He joined the PDP in public glare, bought the presidential nomination form for N5 million and delivered a wonderful speech that Martin Luther King Jnr would be envious of. IBB said he wanted to “repair” Nigeria. Hear him: “I see the pain of dashed hopes, the agony of thwarted dreams and the regrets of expectations not met. Therefore, over and above the various prescriptive models for future leadership that are now being variously canvassed in the popular media, I would rather simply define the challenge of our immediate next national leadership as this: to make whole again. To that I am committed.” It was like: finally, IBB would run. He declared: “We should not allow national discourse to degenerate to a level where we begin to see a difference between our past and present in terms of absolute. Evil versus good, corruption versus holiness, soldiers versus civilians, saints versus sinners… we are sharpening the edges of conflict in the society.”

He was asked by THISDAY if he would not chicken out. He replied: “Chicken out? No, it is not in my character. If anything, I like to be challenged.” Then he chickened out. We woke up one morning to hear that IBB had dropped out of the race for his “younger brother”, Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, and his “friend and brother”, Gen. Aliyu Mohammed Gusau. I was disappointed. Disappointed because a few days later, his supporters began to harass us again, proclaiming: “If he had run, he would certainly have won…” The impression created by them is that for IBB, presidency is just there for the taking. He is the one who has been reluctant to pick it up. He would win election in Nigeria any day, anytime, his supporters would say. And each time he chickened out, the supporters always came back to tell us: “If only he had run, you know… piece of cake.”

By writing that he would not run this time around, I intended to achieve just one thing: draw out the general for his final demystification. We can then have our peace forever. There would be no more intimidation, no more “piece of cake”. Now that he has delivered another declaration speech, it would be disastrous if he withdraws yet again. It would even be more disastrous for him to say: “You see, Jonathan is my president, Atiku Abubakar is my newfound soul mate and Bukola Saraki is like a son to me.” He must contest in the presidential primary. If he fails to get the PDP ticket, he must test his famed charisma and popularity by running on the platform of another party. I would hate to hear again: “If only he had run, you know… piece of cake.”

Love him or hate him, Babangida is a smart man. If President Yar’Adua were alive, IBB would not have dared to run against him, either in PDP or ANPP or any other party for that matter. But as a crack opportunist, he has seen a great opportunity, especially with the sentiment about zoning. He is playing the ethnic game. He has even promised the South-east that he would do only four years, quit in 2015 and then install an Igbo as president. Let’s face the fact: that is a political masterstroke. And I know a good number of Igbos who like that proposition. With the South-west completely out of the PDP calculation for president or vice-president in the next God-knows-how-many-years, and with South-south possibly occupying the position of president for the next God-knows-how-many-years, it is natural for the Igbo of the South-east to fret about when it would be their turn. The Babangida promise, therefore, is something to chew on.

The only problem, though, is that Babangida’s promises are never fulfilled. His life history is filled with broken promises (is he called Maradona for nothing?) If, in 2015, he decides to go for a second term, who would stop him? After all, Obasanjo was said to have entered into an agreement in 1999 not to do a second term but he ran and nobody could stop him. Jonathan has decided to run, in spite of the PDP zoning arrangement, and nobody can stop him. So if IBB chooses to run again in 2015, what can anybody do? The counterargument to that, however, is that as long as IBB has an Igbo VP who is in line to succeed him either in 2015 or 2019, the South-east stands to lose nothing, compared to the Jonathan option. If Jonathan wins and the party comes up with a new zoning formula, the best PDP can offer the South-east is Senate presidency. So the IBB promise to the South-east is good political arithmetic—in my opinion.

Leaving the issues of zoning aside, you cannot but laugh at IBB’s declaration. Whoever wrote his script promising to fight corruption must be mischievous. “Our approach shall be to energise and fortify the anti-corruption agencies of government and implement a systematic and protracted engagement with the values and institutional structures which promote corruption in Nigeria. Specifically, my administration shall be more pro-active in the war against unexplained and unexplainable wealth,” IBB said, without a hint of irony. I expected him to chuckle, but he kept a straight face. He even added one more line of poetry: “There must be a link between work and wealth.” If there is one area IBB should avoid talking about throughout his campaign, it is corruption and values. He should continue to focus on Third Mainland Bridge and DFRRI, FRSC and such things. When it comes to fighting corruption, when it comes to “unexplained and unexplainable wealth”, he should pretend that he has a cough.

Since IBB loves to always refer to his “sparkling past”, he may need to be reminded about his record. When Gen. Muhammadu Buhari sent all the looting politicians to jail in 1984/85, it was Babangida who came and put the country on a reverse gear in the war against corruption. He released all the jailed politicians, returned their seized loot to them, gave them a pat on the back and created a new Nigeria where “unexplained and unexplainable wealth” became the order of the day. It was during Babangida’s time that cocaine pushers became role models in our society. Allen Avenue, Lagos, was their haven. It was nicknamed “Cocaine Avenue”. Those boys flaunted their ill-gotten wealth openly, even though there was something called NDLEA set up to “fight” drug pushing. It was during IBB’s time that 419 became a full-time profession, and some of the biggest scammers in town had police escorts—officially. It was during IBB’s time that our values were finally bastardised. We are yet to recover.

The money politics we play today, where the highest bidder forces his way through, was planted and watered by IBB. He banned, unbanned and banned politicians at will, saying he wanted to create “newbreed” politics. What did he do? He empowered some young chaps with raw cash and set them up in politics. With their heavy war chest, they took over the arena. Poor Nigerians, bruised and battered, sought solace in wads of naira hidden inside loaves of bread; they sold their votes openly. The “newbreed” politicians bought their way through. We are still paying the price today. In the immortal words of Ike Okonta, “Babangida democratised corruption and corrupted democracy”. Nobody laid a better foundation for the corruption of values in Nigeria more than IBB—and subsequent presidents and heads of state have only convincingly played their part in consolidating this dubious distinction. IBB should please promise something else.

http://www.thisdayonline.com/nview.php?id=183162