here is the opinion poll result and the real presidential election result. Pls compare both and make your submissions.

OPINION POLL.
Jonathan Maintains Lead, PDP May Lose More States
07 Apr 2011
President Goodluck Jonathan

By Collins Edomaruse

With nine days to the presidential election, President Goodluck Jonathan, the candidate of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), is most likely to win at first ballot, going by the latest results from the poll conducted for THISDAY by Ipsos, the world’s leading market research company.

But on the down side, the ruling party may lose more than the five states earlier predicted in the governorship election as voters continue to make their decisions ahead of the polls.
In the survey conducted nationwide between March 20 and April 4 – the second wave in the series – 62.1 per cent of the respondents said they would vote for Jonathan, representing a marginal 1.8 percentage point increase above the previous poll conducted between February 25 and March 16, 2011 and published on March 21.

Major General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) came second with 23.6 per cent (up from 22.4 per cent in the first wave), Malam Nuhu Ribadu of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) scored 6 per cent (up from 4.7 per cent), and Malam Ibrahim Shekarau of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) got 1.9 per cent (down from 5.9 per cent). Undecided dropped from 6.4 per cent to 6.2 per cent.

Going by the nationwide results, the presidential race is now effectively between Jonathan and Buhari, with Ribadu and Shekarau failing to record any significant improvement among the polled electorate.
The results show that Jonathan could win in all the geo-political zones, except North-west where Buhari is strongest.
Jonathan has clear leads in 25 states – Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bayelsa, Benue, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Ekiti, Enugu, Gombe, Imo, Kaduna, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Ogun, Ondo, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers and Taraba, and FCT. He holds narrow leads in two states – Bauchi and Osun – but has lost his lead in Niger to Buhari, although he gained Bauchi and Ekiti during the period.
Buhari holds clear leads in six states – Borno, Jigawa, Kano, Kebbi, Yobe and Zamfara – and narrow leads in three – Katsina, Niger and Sokoto.

The winner of the presidential election is required to score a simple majority of votes in addition to a minimum of 25 per cent in at least 24 states of the federation.
Going by the results of the survey, Jonathan will score at least 25 per cent in 32 states and FCT. He may however fail to hit the percentage in four states – Jigawa, Kano, Kebbi and Yobe.
It may be an uphill task for Buhari who is likely to meet the requirement in only 14 states and FCT, while failing in 22 states. Instructively, he did not score 25 per cent of the polled samples in any of the 17 Southern states.

He may also fail to meet the requirement in five Northern states, namely Adamawa, Benue, Kogi, Kwara and Taraba.
In the governorship, PDP could lose as many as six states – up from five predicted in the last wave of polling. It was predicted two weeks ago that PDP could lose five states in the governorship election—Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Imo and Kebbi.
However, the latest results show that while PDP could win 16 states, it could as well lose six states to the opposition, while another four hang in the balance.

REAL ELECTION RESULT 2011.
ABIA 1,175,954 3,608 4,156

ADAMAWA 508,314 344,526 32,786

AKWA IBOM 1,165,629 148 54

ANAMBRA 1,145,169 4,223 3,437

BAUCHI 258,404 1, 315,209 16,674

BAYELSA 504,811 691 370

BENUE 694,776 109, 680 223, 007

BORNO 207, 075 909,763

CROSS RIVER 605,057 3,715 4808

DELTA 1, 378, 851 8, 960 13, 110

EBONYI 480,572 1,025 1,102

EDO 543, 173 17,795 54,242

EKITI 135, 009 2,689 116, 981

ENUGU 802, 144 3,753 -

FCT ABUJA 253,444 131,576 2,323

GOMBE 291,002 457, 894 3,420

IMO 1, 381, 357 7,591 14,821

JIGAWA 419, 252 663, 994

KWARA 268,243 83,603 52, 432

KADUNA 1,190,179 1,334,244 11, 278

KANO 440, 666 1,624, 354 42, 353

KATSINA 282,477 864,343 -

KEBBI 369,198 501,453

KOGI 399,816 132,201 6,516

LAGOS 1, 281, 688 189, 983 427, 000

NASARAWA 408,997 278, 390 1,204

NIGER 321,429 652,574 13,334

OGUN 309, 177 17,654 199,555

ONDO 387, 376 11,890 74,253

OSUN 188,409 6,997 299, 711

OYO 484, 758 92, 396 252, 240

PLATEAU 1,029,809 356, 551 10, 181

RIVERS 1, 817, 762 13,182 16, 332

SOKOTO 309, 057 540, 769 20,144

TARABA(n) 451,354 257,986 17,791

YOBE 117,128 337,537 6,069

ZAMFARA 238,980 624,515 17,970


TOTAL 22,195,839 11,897,000 1,992,169