garfield1:


His failure is sure.those members that defected are those that joined with pdp to elect his stooge as a speaker.apc controls all the reps and senators.bauchi have always voted buhari and dogara is with apc

Buhari is not on the ballot. In 2019 Buhari got over 70% but the governor could not get 50% a more than 40% point swing in just 2 weeks same with Kano. Don't do any analysis thinking Buhari would be of Value cos he won't maybe just 5%.

Bauchi is 50/50 cos of Sadique clot. NNPP or PDP would win the Presidential there.

majole:


Just one LGA & that's the person you are calling his name? Go find out about Bauchi elections. If the last governor from Bauchi metropolis an incumbent could be defeated in Bauchi what more of Sadique from Katagum axis? Sadique might win but not because of Dogara. Stop giving Dogara too much importance here. With what percent did he win reelection in 2019?

Am only saying that dogara will give sadiq the advantage.the ex governor was sabotaged in bauchi LGA across party lines.if dogara was in apc as of then,abdullahi would have won...again,there were big allegations that he is not from bauchi.these factors are no more there. Dogara LGA might be the tie breaker again..he won by 30000+

joyandfaith:
It depends on Tinubu running mate. Muslim-Muslim tickets will make things difficult for APC in SS/SE and Northern states of Nasarawa, Taraba, Plateau, Benue and even Adamawa.
Protest votes.
Buhari presidency has caused division along religious and tribal lines. Tinubu will cause confusion along religious and tribal lines.

TELL THEM AGAIN

majole:


Buhari is not on the ballot. In 2019 Buhari got over 70% but the governor could not get 50% a more than 40% point swing in just 2 weeks same with Kano. Don't do any analysis thinking Buhari would be of Value cos he won't maybe just 5%.

Bauchi is 50/50 cos of Sadique clot. NNPP or PDP would win the Presidential there.

Prp is even stronger than nnpp.atiku cannot win bauchi na.this is a place that gives buhari/apc bloc votes.its like saying because wike decamped to APC,rivers will go apc....atiku can only win northern states where pdp is solid like sokoto,kebbi,Kaduna,taraba etc...the argument that north will vote atiku because he's a northerner is faulty...even when buhari is not on the ballot,apc wins most polls in the north

garfield1:


Yes,if he can win an incumbent,he too can lose as an incumbent

That's true but not because of Dogara

majole:


TELL THEM AGAIN

Funny.things are already difficult for apc in ss/se and north central.pdp will always win there so what's the difference.

majole:


That's true but not because of Dogara

Am only saying he gives one extra advantage when the election is stalemated

ImmaculateJOE:


APGA or Labour Party is taking Abia State..

Better

majole:


Garfield1 did quiet a good analysis. I believe Ebonyi looks 50/50 and might move slightly to PDP if Tinubu picks a Muslim Vice.

A lot of APC Candidates would avoid Tinubu like a plaque if he chooses a Muslim as Vice for them to win.
Taraba might go APC in Gubernatorial

Apc has more chances in ebonyi compared to bauchi.there is a sitting governor who has done well and he has zoned the ticket to the north as required.the apc candidate is from izzi,the dominant clan in the north and one if the two dominant clans in ebonyi who are clamouring for the guber.the izzi people will naturally give their son nwifuru bloc votes.the pdp candidate sen ogba is from a minority in ebonyi central and central is dominated by the ezzas.most people in pdp are angry with ogba emergence..umahi is in control of ebonyi south so pdo has lost the state.it is no more a party battle but a tribal one...tinubu or atiku would not influence anything i n ebonyi.atiku will win ebonyi narrowly

In taraba,it is controlled tightly by t.y danjuma who goofed by zoning back power to taraba south where the incumbent is from.APC should have zoned power to taraba north or central but foolishly gave it to sen bwacha from taraba south

garfield1:


Am only saying that dogara will give sadiq the advantage.the ex governor was sabotaged in bauchi LGA across party lines.if dogara was in apc as of then,abdullahi would have won...again,there were big allegations that he is not from bauchi.these factors are no more there. Dogara LGA might be the tie breaker again..he won by 30000+

Dogara won his reelection 73k to 50k. Dogara might be the tie breaker but till then. I don't see him as too much of a factor in Bauchi

majole:


Dogara won his reelection 73k to 50k. Dogara might be the tie breaker but till then. I don't see him as too much of a factor in Bauchi

Am talking of bala Mohammed winning margin.I never saw or thought that dogara would be reelected in 2019 or influence guber elections.all am saying is that dogara is not that popular in bauchi as a whole but he dominates his immediate constituency and it will go to APC..bala wasn't even that popular in 2019,he lost woefully to APC in 2015.sadiq is very popular

garfield1:


Prp is even stronger than nnpp.atiku cannot win bauchi na.this is a place that gives buhari/apc bloc votes.its like saying because wike decamped to APC,rivers will go apc....atiku can only win northern states where pdp is solid like sokoto,kebbi,Kaduna,taraba etc...the argument that north will vote atiku because he's a northerner is faulty...even when buhari is not on the ballot,apc wins most polls in the north

When you stop smoking whatever you smoke for 1 week then come back & read what you write. BAUCHI & KANO ARE THE 2 MOST MATURED STATES IN NIGERIAN ELECTION. IF YOU ARE POPULAR YOU CAN WIN THERE.
BAUCHI WON'T VOTE TINUBU SAME WITH KANO. GO FIND OUT AFTER 1 WEEK OF ABSTINENCE

garfield1:


Am only saying he gives one extra advantage when the election is stalemated

Now you are talking but that wasn't your initial statement from the beginning of the post. You dey try but places where you don't understand their politics then leave it like both parties would get at least 40% so that even if the other gets 59/40 you would still be right

garfield1:
Better

Avoid political nairaland..... PDP is sweeping that State, Presidential & Guber. The alternative is divided already..

garfield1:



Apc has more chances in ebonyi compared to bauchi.there is a sitting governor who has done well and he has zoned the ticket to the north as required.the apc candidate is from izzi,the dominant clan in the north and one if the two dominant clans in ebonyi who are clamouring for the guber.the izzi people will naturally give their son nwifuru bloc votes.the pdp candidate sen ogba is from a minority in ebonyi central and central is dominated by the ezzas.most people in pdp are angry with ogba emergence..umahi is in control of ebonyi south so pdo has lost the state.it is no more a party battle but a tribal one...tinubu or atiku would not influence anything i n ebonyi.atiku will win ebonyi narrowly

In taraba,it is controlled tightly by t.y danjuma who goofed by zoning back power to taraba south where the incumbent is from.APC should have zoned power to taraba north or central but foolishly gave it to sen bwacha from taraba south

You really understand Ebonyi politics and your analysis is 99% but again it is SE where they are not used to opposition though Ebonyi has always had a strong opposition against the PDP in the past.

With respect to Taraba, TY Danjuma only determines what happens in the PDP but not general. His influence is Money & the fact that APC is seen as a Muslim party and have always given their ticket to Muslims in the past. For 2023 APC Candidate is a Christian from the same zone as the PDP candidate. Muslims would give APC Candidate 75% of their votes and since Senator Bwacha is a popular politician in his own right, he would likely get 35% of the Christian vote which would be enough to defeat PDP 50/49

majole:


When you stop smoking whatever you smoke for 1 week then come back & read what you write. BAUCHI & KANO ARE THE 2 MOST MATURED STATES IN NIGERIAN ELECTION. IF YOU ARE POPULAR YOU CAN WIN THERE.
BAUCHI WON'T VOTE TINUBU SAME WITH KANO. GO FIND OUT AFTER 1 WEEK OF ABSTINENCE

If you smoke, dont feel that others do.this is highly childish and disappointing.I thought I was discussing with a sane,mature mind.is this how you are? If you disagree with me,can't you relate without invectives
Bauchi and kano has always voted for buhari or any party affiliated with buhari at federal levels.atiku is overrated,he is not as popular as buhari.there is a reason why there vote buhari and it is not just because he's a northerner or popular.atiku lacks those qualities.kwankwaso comes close.why is it that atiku cannot win the north east,why did he win only taraba and Adamawa narrowly? Why is it that he cannot dominate his region like tinubu? Why is it that tinubu defeated obj yet atiku cannot.atiku is overrated.politically,tinubu is better than him,has more men and resources nationally and will defeat atiku.the northerners are not blind voters as you think.they will not vote atiku the way you guys think...

majole:


You really understand Ebonyi politics and your analysis is 99% but again it is SE where they are not used to opposition though Ebonyi has always had a strong opposition against the PDP in the past.

With respect to Taraba, TY Danjuma only determines what happens in the PDP but not general. His influence is Money & the fact that APC is seen as a Muslim party and have always given their ticket to Muslims in the past. For 2023 APC Candidate is a Christian from the same zone as the PDP candidate. Muslims would give APC Candidate 75% of their votes and since Senator Bwacha is a popular politician in his own right, he would likely get 35% of the Christian vote which would be enough to defeat PDP 50/49

Things are changing.south east is no longer heavily pdp as it used to be.APC is penetrating.the obi fever is penetrating everywhere in the east.apc has been winning IMO and doing well in ebonyi...gov umahi is a ruthless governor who crushes his opponents mercilessly like Wike.ebonyi pdp is factionalised.pdp bigwigs like egwu and anyim are against ogba

garfield1:


If you smoke, dont feel that others do.this is highly childish and disappointing.I thought I was discussing with a sane,mature mind.is this how you are? If you disagree with me,can't you relate without invectives
Bauchi and kano has always voted for buhari or any party affiliated with buhari at federal levels.atiku is overrated,he is not as popular as buhari.there is a reason why there vote buhari and it is not just because he's a northerner or popular.atiku lacks those qualities.kwankwaso comes close.why is it that atiku cannot win the north east,why did he win only taraba and Adamawa narrowly? Why is it that he cannot dominate his region like tinubu? Why is it that tinubu defeated obj yet atiku cannot.atiku is overrated.politically,tinubu is better than him,has more men and resources nationally and will defeat atiku.the northerners are not blind voters as you think.they will not vote atiku the way you guys think...

Guy you dey carry this smoking thing too far. Is part of the fun to make the discussion entertaining. Sorry if you feel offended. Is just to say you completely get it wrong in that particular analysis

garfield1:


Oga,in 2019 dogara led the apc cabal that removed gov abubakar.bala and Muhammed were tied until results from dogara LGA gave bala the victory.bala won 7 LGAs against 13 by APC.ex governor Muhammed is from bauchi metropolis yet he lost his LGA due to a gangup across party lines.

You're absolutely correct.

rolams:
You got no point at all! Bauchi to APC? I laughed. Osun to Oyetola? Matawalle in Zamfara? Yayaha bello to win Kogi? Ekiti to APC?

Well, I don't know what makes you come to this conclusion.

maybe you have never been to bauchi sef

Aiel123:

Bala's reelection is sure
Remember serving members of APC on the state house has defected to PDP.
Coupled with powers of incumbency

Bauchi APC had majority of members in the state assembly and they had a sitting governor yet they lost. So what's your point?

majole:

Guy you dey carry this smoking thing too far. Is part of the fun to make the discussion entertaining. Sorry if you feel offended. Is just to say you completely get it wrong in that particular analysis

Well,the joke is too expensive. I hardly drink talkless of smoking.you can always disagree politely.you can't tell me that if gej joins apc,bayelsa will vote tinubu.no

Nonsense APC analysis....

Rivers, Benue are full PDP states....

Ezmans:
APC I'll not win a single state in South East & south south

emotionally speaking.

Indispensable85:




You're absolutely correct.

Where is alimikhena from? Who got apc ticket in Edo south? I want shettima to be tinubu running mate.e get why

Duru009:
Nonsense APC analysis....

Rivers, Benue are full PDP states....

But buhari won Benue in 2015 and apc won guber there.buhari lost there by 8990 votes in 2019.father alia is the most popular person in Benue now, pdp has even taken him to court

garfield1:


If you smoke, dont feel that others do.this is highly childish and disappointing.I thought I was discussing with a sane,mature mind.is this how you are? If you disagree with me,can't you relate without invectives
Bauchi and kano has always voted for buhari or any party affiliated with buhari at federal levels.atiku is overrated,he is not as popular as buhari.there is a reason why there vote buhari and it is not just because he's a northerner or popular.atiku lacks those qualities.kwankwaso comes close.why is it that atiku cannot win the north east,why did he win only taraba and Adamawa narrowly? Why is it that he cannot dominate his region like tinubu? Why is it that tinubu defeated obj yet atiku cannot.atiku is overrated.politically,tinubu is better than him,has more men and resources nationally and will defeat atiku.the northerners are not blind voters as you think.they will not vote atiku the way you guys think...

My brother SW is one tribe. NE is over 50 tribes. YOBE/BORNO are no go area for any party that is not APC. BAUCHI is always Buhari.infact BAUCHI has voted for Buhari in percentage terms more than Katsina since 2013. So that leaves Atiku to fight in just 3 states in the NE hence you can't compare him to TINUBU SW. Yes Atiku might not be loved in the FULANI/HAUSA NORTH as BUHARI & KWANKWASO but don't think they would prefer TINUBU to him. Remember also that all those times Atiku was contesting Buhari was contesting too that's why. So 2023 is a different ball game. Remember that Atiku as Vice was able to garner a good chunk of votes in the Muslim north in 2003

garfield1:


Where is alimikhena from? Who got apc ticket in Edo south? I want shettima to be tinubu running mate.e get why

Alimekhena is from etsako east in Edo north.
Edo south apc candidate is hon valentine asuen. I don't support any Muslim vice president for the APC. It must never happen. They should give it to Dogara immediately.

ikennaoma:
Thought u are a fantastic Analyst..
ABIA will go to labour party (Alex Oti)
IMO Election is 2024
Osun will go to PDP
Ekiti certainly will go to APC
Ebonyi will go APC cuz Dave is loved there
RIVERS will fall back to APC ( unless Wike uses The court to disqualify him)
Delta will be a close contest but PDP will have it's way
Kano obviously will go to NNPP

This guy you weigh bad. I concur 100% with you

garfield1:


Oga,ebonyi and IMO will remain apc.stop the nonsense hatred.apc will win at least two states in ss.people no longer care about party.you guys said buhari won't get 25% in ss/se

which state in South South

Ezmans:
which state in South South

Crs and one of delta, rivers aks

garfield1:


But buhari won Benue in 2015 and apc won guber there.buhari lost there by 8990 votes in 2019.father alia is the most popular person in Benue now, pdp has even taken him to court

Because of Rev. Alia, Ortom would loss the Senate seat but again cos of Muslim Muslim Tinubu ticket it might favour Ortom.

But on the gubernatorial it's a WALK OVER for Rev. Alia. It's not a contest