It's a form of strength

According to 2015 elections NO

Political parties can campaigning as they want, but Biafrans Referendum will speak.

Rally on a Thursday?
Should leave my work & hustle to attend APC rally ? I dey craze, nah paid urchins, sycophants, goons of politicians & vagabonds dey attend political rallies of APC & PDP in Nigeria.

Tinubu Ebonyi crowd shock your bigoted Igbo papa he wan get stroke ba ? Na so election result go de shock your entire household as e de trickle in.

Polchiz:
Personally, I have never attended political rally but I have always voted my preferred candidate.

The front runners for the presidency come 2023 are engaging in political rallies across the country and their supporters and opponents are always quick to brag about crowds in their rally.

No rally can pull upto 400, 000 people, considering the capacity of the venues. Contrastly, candidates have won states with over a million votes. Some people are also paid to be at the rally.

Consequently, I ask " does crowd at rally translate to votes? ".

Additionally, don't we think that grassroots sensitization and mobilisation is more productive than rallies?

Many rural dwellers don't have the time and resources to make it to venues of campaign rallies .

immortalcrown:
Yes, it really matters. Rigging can't happen without it. If 1000 people rally for a candidate and only 10 later vote for the candidate, the candidate can claim he got 500 votes. But if only 10 rally for the candidate and he or she later claims to get 500 votes, you will ask who and who later voted for the candidate. This is why they pay so much money to get a large number of people at rallies.

Block-head, can't you see it's the same people that attend different rallies, for some peanut they gonna get?

oluphemmxzy:
According to 2015 elections NO

APC should sensitize more at grassroots. That is where Labour party is doing better.
If APC/PDP assumes that people already know them and fails to do more work, LP will just cruise to victory.

Farmers in the North now know LP and Peter Obi. A man that joined the party 6 months ago is known in all looks and cranies of Nigeria even in villages.
They go with ballot papers, educating local dwellers how to vote correctly for LP.

If APC/PDP relent, everyone will forget their existence.

Superwave16320:
Tinubu Ebonyi crowd shock your bigoted Igbo papa he wan get stroke ba ? Na so election result go de shock your entire household as e de trickle in.

Tinubu urchins and insults, yet they say Obidients are online mobs.

God bless you.

Even you shock at the level of foolishness displayed shamelessly by your tribesmen...lol

mrvitalis:

Honestly this makes absolute no sense that can't stand in any court of law at all

So crowd n election result shocking you is now an insult in Alaigbo ?! Na you sabi if God no bless na you n am get problem, all I can do is wish u well.

Polchiz:


Tinubu urchins and insults, yet they say Obidients are online mobs.

God bless you.

Superwave16320:
So crowd n election result shocking you is now an insult in Alaigbo ?! Na you sabi if God no bless na you n am get problem, all I can do is wish u well.

"....Shocked your bigoted Igbo papa".

Learn to be civilised. Tinubu does not know that you exist.

Emir01:
It matters, it's also part of the game both psychological and capacity to mobilize.

It doesn't matter a bit. Infact, it has absolutely nothing to do with performance in real elections.

Except party members, all other people at the rallies are just there to catch fun. I've attended so many political rallies during my school days, I don't even go out to vote at election days. So many like that, about 70% went there to see the dignities they normally see on their TVs, the rest went there to see musicians and meet new friends.

it is all for fun for people.

Tbh, they only count for bragging rights and trolling. A good percentage of those people attend all such rallies in their domains irrespective of the political parties organizing them.

immortalcrown:
Yes, it really matters. Rigging can't happen without it. If 1000 people rally for a candidate and only 10 later vote for the candidate, the candidate can claim he got 500 votes. But if only 10 rally for the candidate and he or she later claims to get 500 votes, you will ask who and who later voted for the candidate. This is why they pay so much money to get a large number of people at rallies.

This is reason I don't discuss politics on Nairaland anymore. Imaging arguing with this one about politics.

Emir01:
It matters, it's also part of the game both psychological and capacity to mobilize.

bro does everyone there av PVC It's just eye service

yemmit90:


It doesn't matter a bit. Infact, it has absolutely nothing to do with performance in real elections.

Except party members, all other people at the rallies are just there to catch fun. I've attended so many political rallies during my school days, I don't even go out to vote at election days. So many like that, about 70% went there to see the dignities they normally see on their TVs, the rest went there to see musicians and meet new friends.

it is all for fun for people.

You're a novice. History has shown that it matters. A popular candidates with good structure always pull a crowd. Those people that mobile them during d campaign will mobilize during d election day. Those places you see massive people during the campaigns are their strong holds. Buhari campaign =Jonathan =Yaradua =Obasanjo go nd watch those campaigns.

Emola12:
bro does everyone there av PVC It's just eye service

No, but it goes beyond eyes service, political party is like an association, most of them know themselves from various localities. In my street, we know how various houses vote. We know PDP and APC families. They hold meetings every week, there's nothing you can do to win their minds except their leader defect to opposition.

No, not at all.
No matter how huge the crowd is, it is still infinitesimal compared to the total number of voters across the state

If crowd matters Atiku should have done his 2nd term as president since.

Emir01:
It matters, it's also part of the game both psychological and capacity to mobilize.

Yes and no! Yes because it shows you have followers and no because the majority of voters do not attend rallies and no one really knows how many people at rallies are paid (money, free food and drinks, free souvenirs etc) as opposed to organic.

casualobserver:


Yes and no! Yes because it shows you have followers and no because the majority of voters do not attend rallies and no one really knows how many people at rallies are paid (money, free food and drinks, free souvenirs etc) as opposed to organic.

It's yes. I want you notice something. Pay attention to PO campaign in Lagos vs Kano, Obi in Ibadan vs Tinubu, Atiku in Bauchi Vs Obi, Tinubu in Abia vs Obi, Atiku in Osun vs Obi, Atiku in Akwaibom vs Tinubu, Tinubu in Kwara vs Atiku, Atiku in Ondo vs Obi etc even in state elections it reflects in their performances. When you're popular in a certain place forget it.

Emir01:
It matters, it's also part of the game both psychological and capacity to mobilize.

It is of no effect. It is just an entertainment and drama events that contribute nothing to victory at the poll. It is similar to TV debate and interview.

The reason for rallies especially try to gather large crowd was initiated by PDP to perfected plans of rigging and now other parties follows suit.

Just to deceive people, so that rigging can be easily be perpetrated.

But the wkrh the introduction of BVAS, I don't think �� rigging will be easy.


Ask APC in Osun state

It doesn't matter o.
Come ask ADC in Oyo State during 2019 election

babaolofin:


It is of no effect. It is just an entertainment and drama events that contribute nothing to victory at the poll. It is similar to TV debate and interview.

Campaign is a different ball game. We will see what Obi will pull in Borno, Kano, Kwara, Bauchi, Ibadan, Katsina vs Atiku nd Tinubu in terms of campaign vs what Obi will pull in Abia, Lagos, Imo, Anambra vs other candidates. Where any candidate is popular, it will be greatly reflect during campaigns.

immortalcrown:
Yes, it really matters. Rigging can't happen without it. If 1000 people rally for a candidate and only 10 later vote for the candidate, the candidate can claim he got 500 votes. But if only 10 rally for the candidate and he or she later claims to get 500 votes, you will ask who and who later voted for the candidate. This is why they pay so much money to get a large number of people at rallies.

Your analysis is top notch , keep it up .

Even in advanced countries, Rally attendance and media play a big role.

When u have a big rallies across country , common people and media will sit up and notice .

Psychologically , it plays a big role on neutral voters . If the neutral voter are seeing pictures of rally of a particular candidate getting huge response , Majority of neutral people will go for winning candidate .



This is a very interesting subject , we can continue discussion .

Camberlo:
The reason for rallies especially try to gather large crowd was initiated by PDP to perfected plans of rigging and now other parties follows suit.

Just to deceive people, so that rigging can be easily be perpetrated.

But the wkrh the introduction of BVAS, I don't think �� rigging will be easy.


Ask APC in Osun state

Adeleke campaign in Osun is massive, from ede, to Ila, Ire to Osogbo to Ilesa and it reflects during the election. Why is other party not pulling the same crowd? The campaign reflects a close battle apart from the history of the two parties in last 12 years.

Emir01:


It's yes. I want you notice something. Pay attention to PO campaign in Lagos vs Kano, Obi in Ibadan vs Tinubu, Atiku in Bauchi Vs Obi, Tinubu in Abia vs Obi, Atiku in Osun vs Obi, Atiku in Akwaibom vs Tinubu, Tinubu in Kwara vs Atiku, Atiku in Ondo vs Obi etc even in state elections it reflects in their performances. When you're popular in a certain place forget it.

Hence I said yes and no. Yes because if you cannot pull a crowd you have no chance, no because even if you can pull a crowd, it doesn’t say much against the opponent who can also pull a crowd because most voters don’t attend rallies.

For example, In the days of the 2 horse race, most states were won/lost by 60/40 margin max, many by 55/45 margin, some even by less. A good example is Kwara and most muddlebelt states, the margin of victory is always 5-10%, which means both parties are strong, So pulling a huge crowd in those states means nothing. There are Ibos everywhere, so Obi getting g a reasonable crowd in Ibadana means nothing, if you watch the Obi videos in Ibadan for instance, you will notice by the voices of members of the crowd that most of the crowd were Ibos.

The only thing you can draw from a rally is that if you cannot pull a crowd forget it.

casualobserver:


Hence I said yes and no. Yes because if you cannot pull a crowd you have no chance, no because even if you can pull a crowd, it doesn’t say much against the opponent who can also pull a crowd because most voters don’t attend rallies.

The only thing you can draw from a rally is that if you cannot pull a crowd forget it.

Why I said yes is because history has not proven it otherwise. I get ya point but I can only rely on data. Every political parties want people to attend their rallies and if you can't bring people to the board forget it. Those people at home are reflection of those outside campaigning.

casualobserver:


Hence I said yes and no. Yes because if you cannot pull a crowd you have no chance, no because even if you can pull a crowd, it doesn’t say much against the opponent who can also pull a crowd because most voters don’t attend rallies.

For example, In the days of the 2 horse race, most states were won/lost by 60/40 margin max, many by 55/45 margin, some even by less. A good example is Kwara and most muddlebelt states, the margin of victory is always 5-10%, which means both parties are strong, So pulling a huge crowd in those states means nothing. There are Ibos everywhere, so Obi getting g a reasonable crowd in Ibadana means nothing, if you watch the Obi videos in Ibadan for instance, you will notice by the voices of members of the crowd that most of the crowd were Ibos.

The only thing you can draw from a rally is that if you cannot pull a crowd forget it.

It doesn't matter wether is 3 or five horse races, your ability to mobilize will reflect on election day. People will vote across regions, ethnic nd religion, all candidates have something working for them already, you just have to work more, form alliances nd tap votes from everywhere that is available using their strategy. Strong parties field people of the same religion from their localities and some are loyal to them nd will work to deliver their candidates. Is Ibo the largest ethnic group? Forget about Ibo everywhere, the election is not only about ethnicity this is politics.

Emir01:


Why I said yes is because history has not proven it otherwise. I get ya point but I can only rely on data. Every political parties want people to attend their rallies and if you can't bring people to the board forget it. Those people at home are reflection of those outside campaigning.

Pls read the extension to my post.

Another thing to add is that not all rallies are equal for instance Ibadan or Jos rally is not always an Ibadan or Jos rally but an Oyo and plateau state rallies depending on your popularity. So whereas someone who is genuinely popular may attract a huge rally just from the residents of that particular town/city, another candidate may need to mobilize supporters from all corners of the state and neighboring g states. For instance Buhari can hold a massive rally just from the residents of katsina, similarly Kwakwanso Kano city. But if Kwakwanso is holding a rally in Ibadan or Buhari in onitsha, you can be sure the crowd is not just from all nooks and corners of the state but also from neighboring states.