There will be nothing to dissect here, The writer gave Tinubu 18 state, Atiku 19 states and you still think Obi has any state he can win? All I see after election is IPOB killing their own people in anger that they voted against their brother
shebi it is OP that will be sharing votes on election day
ImmaculateJOE: Tinibu cannot win the following state.
Abia Anambra Ebonyi Enugu Imo Cross River Edo Rivers Plateau Benue FCT.. They belong to Peter Obi... I dont care about the list above..
All the states here were won by PDP/Atiku in 2019. I just dey laff oooooo 🤣🤣. You'll never see what is coming until it hits you zombiediots next month.
INTEREST ON DEPOSITS COLLECTED UPFRONT? The man with face mask who said that he is a banker, and that interest from money invested in bank, is collected upfront, is a thief. Nobody collects interest in deposits upfront.
1. The northerners feel it is not the yoruba 's turn to produce the Presidency. The nostalgia here is why must they give Tinubu that opportunity?
Most northerners feel they better have it themselves. This is where Atiku becomes their choice. But if Obi play his game very well he still stand a chance defeating Atiku.
2. A second reason that is affecting Tinubu is that most northerners feel Tinubu will be too hard for the north to handle. He is a very strict and stubborn man that will not dance to their tunes.
adedayofrosh: 19 states where Tinubu may lose the 2023 presidential election
Bola Tinubu is finally one more step away from the presidency after decades of plotting. The former Lagos state governor cofounded the ruling APC and helped President Muhammadu Buhari to win two elections. Now, he believes it’s his turn to rule the country. But this won’t be a coronation. Below are 19 states where he may lose the 2023 election.
Osun The main opposition PDP lost the 2019 presidential election in this state by only a 1% point – and yet it did not control the state at the time. This changed last year when the PDP won the state gubernatorial election. The opposition has strengthened its position here and the APC is fractured locally. The ruling party is unlikely to win next month’s election in this state.
Imo Imo is the only state in the southeast that Tinubu’s APC controls, but the state governor and the party are highly unpopular. At best, the party will muster enough votes to satisfy a constitutional requirement that a winning candidate must get 25% of votes in at least two-thirds of states nationwide and the capital Abuja.
Anambra The PDP comfortably won Anambra in the last five presidential elections, but this time it faces stiff competition because LP candidate Peter Obi comes from this state. Tinubu is not expected to put up a meaningful challenge there.
Plateau Plateau presently has the most registered voters in the central north. It is a swing state with a largely Christian population, and there is constant friction between Christians and Muslims given the dynamic between the central north and the rest of the mostly Muslim north. This is why many stakeholders flinched when Tinubu, a Muslim, picked another Muslim as his running mate – neglecting an unwritten Nigerian rule that a president and his vice cannot both be of the same faith. Voters in Plateau will have that in mind.
Enugu The PDP always wins this southeastern state by a landslide. The party’s current candidate Atiku Abubakar got 84% of the votes in the last presidential election. If that changes this time, it won’t be because Tinubu’s on the ballot but because a more popular Obi has emerged.
Benue Benue is a predominantly Christian state in the central north. As in Plateau, voters are averse to the APC’s Muslim-Muslim arrangement due to pre-existing religious tensions in the state. The election will be competitive here, but the PDP candidate should earn a second consecutive victory.
Taraba Voters in Taraba have never elected a Muslim state governor, so it’s improbable they’ll vote for a party with two Muslim running mates. The state is mainly Christian and is currently controlled by the PDP.
Sokoto The northwest is the stronghold of Tinubu’s APC, which runs all the states in this region except Sokoto. The party swept votes in this northwest area last time, but that was because its candidate Buhari is seen in the area as its religious and ethnic leader.
Now, the president’s not on the ballot for the first time since 2003. This means another candidate’s going to inherit that large segment of the electorate who vote on the basis of religion and ethnicity. Tinubu’s apparently not that candidate – northern Muslims consider southern Muslims inferior. The NNPP’s Rabiu Kwankwaso and PDP’s Atiku are ahead here because they’re both northern Muslims and Hausa-Fulani.
Rivers Rivers has more voters than any other state in the oil-rich Niger Delta. The state (and the rest of the southern region) is a PDP stronghold – it’s always won presidential elections by a wide margin there. But the PDP state governor now bizarrely opposes his own party’s candidate. This infighting may allow Tinubu to squeeze out enough votes to meet the 25% constitutional threshold, but his supporters still won’t expect him to win the state.
Delta The PDP won 72% of votes in this southern state last time. Now, the state governor is also the party’s vice-presidential candidate. Tinubu will be devoting the bulk of his resources elsewhere.
Abuja The PDP won the country’s capital five times as the ruling party and still did so in 2019 when it was in the opposition. This pattern will likely continue this year.
Ondo Ondo is in Tinubu’s backyard: the southwest. But his party APC lost the presidential election there last time even though it runs the state. This is because the party was splintered not just in the state but also in the region. That dynamic is still at play this year.
Cross River [/b]Atiku neatly beat the APC’s Buhari here last time with 70% of the votes. The southern state now has an APC state governor, but Tinubu seems prepared for a defeat so long as he can get up to 25% of the votes in this state toward fulfilling the constitutional requirement in two-thirds of the 36 states.
[b]Adamawa Tinubu’s main opponent Atiku is from this state in the northeast. The ruling APC won this historically PDP state for the first time in 2015, but Atiku was in the APC at the time. Atiku should continue his home winning streak next month.
Akwa Ibom [/b]A Tinubu win in Akwa Ibom will be a miracle. Getting 25% or more of the votes should be enough success for the ruling party candidate.
[b]Edo The margin here in the 2019 election was barely 2% points. Next month’s election in the state will again be closely contested, and the PDP has the upper hand given it’s presently in charge of the state.
Bayelsa Tinubu will hope that former (and current) PDP figures in this state, such as oil minister and ex-Bayelsa state governor Timipre Sylva, can get him a decent tally there. But no one should anticipate a Tinubu victory.
Abia The Abia state governor is one of five PDP state governors who are rumored to be discussing a deal with Tinubu to sabotage their own party. Note: it’s not really ‘sabotage’ in the eyes of Nigerian politicians, who freely switch parties when it personally benefits them.
President Buhari would barely win a few thousand votes in Abia (or any other state in the southeast) in a fair election, but he managed to rally 26% of the votes in 2019 – just enough to get over the constitutional line – with the state governor’s tacit cooperation. Tinubu should expect this cooperation again this time. He knows he’s unpopular here, and so winning the state is not his priority.
Ebonyi Ebonyi is another state where President Buhari somehow managed to get over the constitutional line in 2019 – with 25.26% of the votes. The PDP state governor who covertly organized this result has in fact since joined the ruling party. Tinubu will count on him to organize this simple result for him again, leaving Atiku and Obi to slug it out while he directs his own energy elsewhere.
adedayofrosh: 19 states where Tinubu may lose the 2023 presidential election
Bola Tinubu is finally one more step away from the presidency after decades of plotting. The former Lagos state governor cofounded the ruling APC and helped President Muhammadu Buhari to win two elections. Now, he believes it’s his turn to rule the country. But this won’t be a coronation. Below are 19 states where he may lose the 2023 election.
Osun The main opposition PDP lost the 2019 presidential election in this state by only a 1% point – and yet it did not control the state at the time. This changed last year when the PDP won the state gubernatorial election. The opposition has strengthened its position here and the APC is fractured locally. The ruling party is unlikely to win next month’s election in this state.
Imo Imo is the only state in the southeast that Tinubu’s APC controls, but the state governor and the party are highly unpopular. At best, the party will muster enough votes to satisfy a constitutional requirement that a winning candidate must get 25% of votes in at least two-thirds of states nationwide and the capital Abuja.
Anambra The PDP comfortably won Anambra in the last five presidential elections, but this time it faces stiff competition because LP candidate Peter Obi comes from this state. Tinubu is not expected to put up a meaningful challenge there.
Plateau Plateau presently has the most registered voters in the central north. It is a swing state with a largely Christian population, and there is constant friction between Christians and Muslims given the dynamic between the central north and the rest of the mostly Muslim north. This is why many stakeholders flinched when Tinubu, a Muslim, picked another Muslim as his running mate – neglecting an unwritten Nigerian rule that a president and his vice cannot both be of the same faith. Voters in Plateau will have that in mind.
Enugu The PDP always wins this southeastern state by a landslide. The party’s current candidate Atiku Abubakar got 84% of the votes in the last presidential election. If that changes this time, it won’t be because Tinubu’s on the ballot but because a more popular Obi has emerged.
Benue Benue is a predominantly Christian state in the central north. As in Plateau, voters are averse to the APC’s Muslim-Muslim arrangement due to pre-existing religious tensions in the state. The election will be competitive here, but the PDP candidate should earn a second consecutive victory.
Taraba Voters in Taraba have never elected a Muslim state governor, so it’s improbable they’ll vote for a party with two Muslim running mates. The state is mainly Christian and is currently controlled by the PDP.
Sokoto The northwest is the stronghold of Tinubu’s APC, which runs all the states in this region except Sokoto. The party swept votes in this northwest area last time, but that was because its candidate Buhari is seen in the area as its religious and ethnic leader.
Now, the president’s not on the ballot for the first time since 2003. This means another candidate’s going to inherit that large segment of the electorate who vote on the basis of religion and ethnicity. Tinubu’s apparently not that candidate – northern Muslims consider southern Muslims inferior. The NNPP’s Rabiu Kwankwaso and PDP’s Atiku are ahead here because they’re both northern Muslims and Hausa-Fulani.
Rivers Rivers has more voters than any other state in the oil-rich Niger Delta. The state (and the rest of the southern region) is a PDP stronghold – it’s always won presidential elections by a wide margin there. But the PDP state governor now bizarrely opposes his own party’s candidate. This infighting may allow Tinubu to squeeze out enough votes to meet the 25% constitutional threshold, but his supporters still won’t expect him to win the state.
Delta The PDP won 72% of votes in this southern state last time. Now, the state governor is also the party’s vice-presidential candidate. Tinubu will be devoting the bulk of his resources elsewhere.
Abuja The PDP won the country’s capital five times as the ruling party and still did so in 2019 when it was in the opposition. This pattern will likely continue this year.
Ondo Ondo is in Tinubu’s backyard: the southwest. But his party APC lost the presidential election there last time even though it runs the state. This is because the party was splintered not just in the state but also in the region. That dynamic is still at play this year.
Cross River [/b]Atiku neatly beat the APC’s Buhari here last time with 70% of the votes. The southern state now has an APC state governor, but Tinubu seems prepared for a defeat so long as he can get up to 25% of the votes in this state toward fulfilling the constitutional requirement in two-thirds of the 36 states.
[b]Adamawa Tinubu’s main opponent Atiku is from this state in the northeast. The ruling APC won this historically PDP state for the first time in 2015, but Atiku was in the APC at the time. Atiku should continue his home winning streak next month.
Akwa Ibom [/b]A Tinubu win in Akwa Ibom will be a miracle. Getting 25% or more of the votes should be enough success for the ruling party candidate.
[b]Edo The margin here in the 2019 election was barely 2% points. Next month’s election in the state will again be closely contested, and the PDP has the upper hand given it’s presently in charge of the state.
Bayelsa Tinubu will hope that former (and current) PDP figures in this state, such as oil minister and ex-Bayelsa state governor Timipre Sylva, can get him a decent tally there. But no one should anticipate a Tinubu victory.
Abia The Abia state governor is one of five PDP state governors who are rumored to be discussing a deal with Tinubu to sabotage their own party. Note: it’s not really ‘sabotage’ in the eyes of Nigerian politicians, who freely switch parties when it personally benefits them.
President Buhari would barely win a few thousand votes in Abia (or any other state in the southeast) in a fair election, but he managed to rally 26% of the votes in 2019 – just enough to get over the constitutional line – with the state governor’s tacit cooperation. Tinubu should expect this cooperation again this time. He knows he’s unpopular here, and so winning the state is not his priority.
Ebonyi Ebonyi is another state where President Buhari somehow managed to get over the constitutional line in 2019 – with 25.26% of the votes. The PDP state governor who covertly organized this result has in fact since joined the ruling party. Tinubu will count on him to organize this simple result for him again, leaving Atiku and Obi to slug it out while he directs his own energy elsewhere.
I swear, considering what I’m seeing in Edo, it’s 99.9% Labour Party, don’t even argue with them, they’ll confirm on election day
Regie2bless: rubbish prediction, In Edo state we don't vote party we vote personality, hadn't been obaseki goes to NNPP he will still win the election, and the funniest things is dat Edo people speaks in one voice when it comes to election, so zoning Edo state to PDP is a child's play. I can tell u for free, Edo state is for Obi, 99.9999999% of votes cast on dat day will be for Labour, NNPP, APC and PDP can make do of the remaining 0.1 vote. I'm say this authoritatively because I'm a bini man. And dat is what on ground in Edo state. Obaseki once complain dat everywhere u go in Benin city is obedient.
APC has only won Nasarawa once in history, and it won't repeat itself. A large percentage of Nasarawa voters are Abuja people who reside in Mararaba-Masaka axis, the same way APC can never win Abuja is the same way it can't win Nasarawa.
that is true most Abuja workers reside in nassarawa.....
All the states here were won by PDP/Atiku in 2019. I just dey laff oooooo 🤣🤣. You'll never see what is coming until it hits you zombiediots next month.
it won't be like that for pdp,I have people in pdp and they know it will look difficult for them in the south. Don't underestimate those G5 govs.
OGHENAOGIE: so what do u expect him to say if he said vote APC u ll come here to type nonsense of wanting to rig the process... Those of u supportive obi are living in lala land next month Ina go well back
you dey river and water dey enter your eye.
Be there trying to sound intelligent when you know you're not.
Are you more informed than Tinubu himself?? Carry on
Felabrity: you would have called him an Ipob if he was igbo
even the idiotic pigs believe tinubu will win 18 state, But I disagree with osun, benue, sokoto, ondo, Edo and beyelsa. Obi and atiku will share 13 state
Bizibi: it won't be like that for pdp,I have people in pdp and they know it will look difficult for them in the south. Don't underestimate those G5 govs.
