garfield1:


I have track record.does the faceless poll has any

😂😂😂🤣

Who know this guy make him come carry am... 😂🤣

garfield1:


Oyetola just won at the tribunal

Like there's no appeal and Supreme Court.
How does that concern what we are discussing? 😂

Where did you even get this news?

bishopkay:

You seem to forget why GEJ lost the election. He practically lost the North Central, he lost most of the Christian north. He also lost his small base in the SW. Then let's not talk about the almost 45% incidents form votes that accrued to Buhari.

Now you see why your logic is flawed? The same people who voted for GEJ in 2011, abandoned him to vote for Buhari in 2015! This is to tell you that voters pattern change and is quite malleable, depending on the persons on the ballot and their interests. Make una dey play sha... Just dey play!

Not true.even if he won nc,he would still lose.he lost because he couldn't match buhari figures from ne nw like he did in 2011 and because he lost sw..gej also used incidents forms massively

garfield1:


Not true.even if he won nc,he would still lose.he lost because he couldn't match buhari figures from ne nw like he did in 2011 and because he lost sw..gej also used incidents forms massively

you guys should stop discussing analysis with this clown 😂😂😂

bishopkay:

Kenya! The opposition that won the election was a member (VP) of the ruling party till he split and left.

The ruling party that lost the election was actually a merger between the ruling party and the former opposition party led by Raila. It was a behemoth, unthinkable to think they'd lose. The rest as they say is history.

Just dey play sha. Yorubas will vote for Bola but northerners will not vote for Atiku. Same people who have always voted along ethnic lines since our return to democracy. Just dey play!

That's to show you how unreasonable Tinubu supporters are. They believe that Yorubas will vote for Tinubu because he is their brother and despite the fact that APC has failed and put all Nigerians in severe suffering. However, same people also believe that Northern muslims will abandon Atiku their brother, despite being more healthy and acceptable to vote for Tinubu

Anyways, they're not called zombies for nothing.

Workch:
you guys should stop discussing analysis with this clown 😂😂😂

Oyetola just won oh.I opened a thread about oh.who is the clown again

Efewestern:


Money alone can't win you primaries. You need strategic supports from governors who by extension controls the delegates.

The National chairman of APC and Aso cabal never wanted BAT and they didn't even hide it. Few weeks to the primaries, northern governors were summoned to Abuja and they insisted that power must return to South. That was even after Lawal had been endorsed by some cabal members and some APC key figures.

The northern governors fought fiercely for BAT. If not for them, Ameachi or Lawal would have won.

Also, you can't downplay the impacts of governors in Nigerian elections, unless you are not truthful to yourself. Religion, Tribe, Political support and masses acceptance are what you put on the table when discussing the outcome of any election. Even in state levels, Tribe, political supports and masses acceptance play an important role.

Unless LP wins SS with a landslide and get atleast 50% of NC, They would need chunk of votes from SW. Like how GEJ secured his first ticket.

Money alone can't win primaries, money can make the difference. A huge difference.

I would not downplay the impact of governors before BVAS. BVAS has significantly reduced their power.
While they still have a role to play, it only comes to vote buying. They can no longer influence figures massively
You have to agree

Workch:
Like there's no appeal and Supreme Court.
How does that concern what we are discussing? 😂

Where did you even get this news?

You see,you are not updated.it shows that I am very good in predictions

garfield1:


Do you think I like Tinubu? My original choices were amechi and osibanjo? I am from ss same as the guy I quoted.the realities on ground points to a Tinubu victory

Talking about SS, I see you carrying 25% to give to Tifnubu in Delta state LMAO. Delta no even sure for PDP as things stand na come APC? Or you think Omo Agege's influence will work for Tifnubu? E go shock you oh.

My parents and extended family are all voting LP for presidency and Omo Agege for Gubernatorial because he's both a relation of the family and the PDP brought out a tout to be governor, which we won't let happen. No dull yourself oh this guy.

garfield1:


You see,you are not updated.it shows that I am very good in predictions

You are a clown I swear.
😂😂😂

garfield1:


You see,you are not updated.it shows that I am very good in predictions

Open betting shop na😂🤣😂

kay1one:


Open betting shop na😂🤣😂

I have a betking shop

Workch:
You are a clown I swear.
😂😂😂

Guy,admit it,I am good.to make you happy,Tinubu will lose to obi but obi must join apc after.agree?

garfield1:


Guy,admit it,I am good.to make you happy,Tinubu will lose to obi but obi must join apc after.agree?

If BVAS says Oyetola won, so what's the big deal, let Oyetola win. It doesnt mean that Tinubu will win

Think. I have no issues whether APC or PDP in Osun. Tinubu will still lose

bishopkay:

Talking about SS, I see you carrying 25% to give to Tifnubu in Delta state LMAO. Delta no even sure for PDP as things stand na come APC? Or you think Omo Agege's influence will work for Tifnubu? E go shock you oh.

My parents and extended family are all voting LP for presidency and Omo Agege for Gubernatorial because he's both a relation of the family and the PDP brought out a tout to be governor, which we won't let happen. No dull yourself oh this guy.

Omo agege influence gave buhari 25% in 2019 na.now,lp is eating pdp votes.again,itsekiri have endorsed Tinubu.ijaws are divided and isokos are with tinubu

garfield1:


My brother,I am on all fours with you esp your analysis on ss.ss is a battleground.delta will be contested by the three parties and all will get 25% though I see atiku winning.with wike against atiku,rivers is obi vs tinubu but I see obi winning with tinubu getting 25%.in aks,I see pdp winning but obi and tinubu should get 25%.in bayelsa,it is apc vs pdp.it will be closely contested.in crs river,the three parties are well matched but with apc campaigning more with more personnel and resources and pdp disunited,apc may win.I think edo is between lp and apc with lp narrowly winning.
In nc,lp penetratuon is mostly in benue,plateau and fct but it seems they have lost steam on benue.but obi should beat atiku in nc.the battle will be in ne nw

I still disagree with on Delta's result 😂. I told you some days back that LP has wide acceptance. Agreed that the margin won't be much, but Obi is now favored to win the state.

LP will also win Rivers (With or without wike's support) and EDO. Winning states in SS isn't really the problem but at what margin?

If 1m people voted in Delta and 45% went to LP, 35% for PDP and 20% for APC, such win won't count much as opposed to 80% combined forces of LP/PDP and 20% of APC. This simple permutation was how GEJ was able to knock out Buhari in the first poll. Infact, if not that SWestern votes were divided in 2015, GEJ would have won.

Presently, there are some states PDP won't even see 10%. Example is Lagos.

NW will be the decider for me and if the northern governors turn their back on BAT, then he is a goner 😂. But the governors are also fighting for their interests and a northern straight rule won't be beneficial to them. Gaduje and El-Rufai are his main pillar.

garfield1:
I have a betking shop

Cut 1 is about to happen

Workch:
If BVAS says Oyetola won, so what's the big deal, let Oyetola win. It doesnt mean that Tinubu will win

Think. I have no issues whether APC or PDP in Osun. Tinubu will still lose

I am the most objective apc fan you can find here.

garfield1:


I am the most objective apc fan you can find here.

Oyetola in the first term was also sacked by tribunal and Adeleke won. He appealed until Supreme Court.

You people don't know anything about the law. Adekele remains govenror until Supreme Court says otherwise.

You don't know anything

garfield1:


Omo agege influence gave buhari 25% in 2019 na.now,lp is eating pdp votes.again,itsekiri have endorsed Tinubu.ijaws are divided and isokos are with tinubu

Itsekiri what? Isokos what? Okay oh we'll see

Workch:
Money alone can't win primaries, money can make the difference. A huge difference.

I would not downplay the impact of governors before BVAS. BVAS has significantly reduced their power.
While they still have a role to play, it only comes to vote buying. They can no longer influence figures massively
You have to agree

My arguments are;

* Money alone without political supports is useless
* Governors are important in Nigerian election
* Northern governors are the only reason BAT scaled through the primaries and they are still the reason he still has a chance in NW and NEestern states despite the poor performance of the ruling party.
..................................................................................

If the Northern governors were to turn their back on BAT like they did to GEJ, he would loose the election before the D-Day. His money is meaningless without the support of political gladiators.

Efewestern:


I still disagree with on Delta's result 😂. I told you some days back that LP has wide acceptance. Agreed that the margin won't be much, but Obi is now favored to win the state.

LP will also win Rivers (With or without wike's support) and EDO. Winning states in SS isn't really the problem but at what margin?

If 1m people voted in Delta and 45% went to LP, 35% for PDP and 20% for APC, such win won't count much as opposed to 80% combined forces of LP/PDP and 20% of APC. This simple permutation was how GEJ was able to knock out Buhari in the first poll. Infact, if not that SWestern votes were divided in 2015, GEJ would have won.

Presently, there are some states PDP won't even see 10%. Example is Lagos.

NW will be the decider for me and if the northern governors turn their back on BAT, then he is a goner 😂. But the governors are also fighting for their interests and a northern straight rule won't be beneficial to them. Gaduje and El-Rufai are his main pillar.

My brother,okowa that outsmarted ibori cannot bw underrated.he gave atiku the highest votes in ss in 2019.he will do whatever it takes to win delta no matter how popular obi is.he is still in control of ika and delta south where votes are produced.highest obi will get is a close second...
Obi seems popular mainly in benincity but apc is very strong in ovia side.the esans are undecided while edo north is apc.so it will be tight,dont follow the media frenzy.it was so in 2019 and buhari almost won edo..
Even in rivetrs,most people shouting obi are in ph,eleme and oyigbo.what about the ogonis,kalabaris,ahoadas,etches,ekrikas,abdonis and these are areas that matters...all these narrow victories is favouring Tinubu...

For nw,I don't think el rufai is vital.whoever wins kaduna will do so marginally.key people will be bagudu,masari,matawalle,wamakko,badaru,ganduje.even if those govs betray him,those at the grassroots can still salvage Tinubu.the nw us clearly divided into three and Tinubu is campaigning very well

garfield1:


16000 respondents is too small to use for an analysis

No of respondents is not an issue in a poll done scientifically i.e if sampling is done scientifically.

This is one of the very 1st rule in statistics.

And i know that you my fwend, garfield, is fully aware of it. So why you come dey lule??

Chaff theory
Atiku is the president in just some few days to come
#atikuorganizingforaction

garfield1:


No.but I have antecedents.again,google trend used millions of respondents to analyse.noi polls is manageable

NOI polls used 1000-3000 respondents. Hope you know that??

bishopkay:

Itsekiri what? Isokos what? Okay oh we'll see

Don't you know itsekiri tribe? They like voting for yorubas and remi is from there.they have been pro apc since 2015.pdp neglected isokos and apc gave them senate ticket so they endorsed apc

nameo:


NOI polls used 1000-3000 respondents. Hope you know that??

They are always correct

nameo:


No of respondents is not an issue in a poll done scientifically i.e if sampling is done scientifically.

This is one of the very 1st rule in statistics.

And i know that you my fwend, garfield, is fully aware of it. So why you come dey lule??

I prefer a higher numb plus them visiting the rural areas

bishopkay:

Kenya! The opposition that won the election was a member (VP) of the ruling party till he split and left.

The ruling party that lost the election was actually a merger between the ruling party and the former opposition party led by Raila. It was a behemoth, unthinkable to think they'd lose. The rest as they say is history.

Just dey play sha. Yorubas will vote for Bola but northerners will not vote for Atiku. Same people who have always voted along ethnic lines since our return to democracy. Just dey play!

Dont mention kenya. What happened in kenya was a realignment. Kenyatta lost Ruto and gained odinga. Buhari didnt lose Tinubu to gain atiku.

Svoboda:


Dont mention kenya. What happened in kenya was a realignment. Kenyatta lost Ruto and gained odinga. Buhari didnt lose Tinubu to gain atiku.

You asked a question and got an answer. Don't cry

garfield1:



My brother,okowa that outsmarted ibori cannot bw underrated.he gave atiku the highest votes in ss in 2019.he will do whatever it takes to win delta no matter how popular obi is.he is still in control of ika and delta south where votes are produced.highest obi will get is a close second...
Obi seems popular mainly in benincity but apc is very strong in ovia side.the esans are undecided while edo north is apc.so it will be tight,dont follow the media frenzy.it was so in 2019 and buhari almost won edo..
Even in rivetrs,most people shouting obi are in ph,eleme and oyigbo.what about the ogonis,kalabaris,ahoadas,etches,ekrikas,abdonis and these are areas that matters...all these narrow victories is favouring Tinubu...

For nw,I don't think el rufai is vital.whoever wins kaduna will do so marginally.key people will be bagudu,masari,matawalle,wamakko,badaru,ganduje.even if those govs betray him,those at the grassroots can still salvage Tinubu.the nw us clearly divided into three and Tinubu is campaigning very well

Nobody is underrating Okowa reason I'm not giving LP 70% win like some people do. You should know that Ibori was the one who gave Delta South the electoral value they are currently enjoying and with the crisis rocking the party at the state level, it would be naive to think anyone controls the creek votes. Up till this very moment, no single Ijaw bigwigs have endorsed PDP, note one! They are all mute and with the new electoral laws, I'm believing some things won't be as usual.

So when you consider these factors plus the wide acceptance of LP, it only makes sense to conclude that they would win albeit with a close margin. Even if PDP miraculously wins, the margin would be meaningless.

Wanted to mention Wamakko, that man is doing lots of Damage to PDP in Sokoto. Ganduje is a strong ally to Bat and El-Rufai is one of the few actor in the region whose support for BAT is unwavering.

bishopkay:

You asked a question and got an answer. Don't cry

I asked a question. Your answer is wrong. Dont rush to answer questions with the wrong answers.