Will Israel bomb Iran? ( 2)
February 15, 2012 by Sabella Abidde 5 Comments


That Israel would attack Iran has been the topic of debates and media speculations for many years now. And conventional wisdom seems to suggest that an attack would take place before the end of spring 2012. However, statements that are recently attributed to President Barack Obama, and to decision makers in Qatar, Turkey, and elsewhere in the Middle East, seem to indicate that an attack is not likely to happen anytime soon. In effect, the United States and her friends seem to prefer the ongoing unilateral and United Nations-backed sanctions and or diplomatic solution.

At this point, no one seems to know, or know with any degree of certainty, what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would do. Frankly, what Netanyahu would do, and how the Iranians would respond, is what keeps many world leaders awake. The Israelis would not be satisfied with just attacking a couple of nuclear and military warehouses: a few other Iranian national security interests may also be attacked. The Iranians, on the other hand, are likely to respond in both conventional and non-conventional manner.

Recent statements attributed to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — “I have no fear of saying that we will back and help any nation or group that wants to confront and fight against the Zionist regime (Israel)” — is an indication that Iran would broaden its theatre of operation against Israel and the United States. And just last week, the Reuters news agency quoted Obama as saying that, “Any kind of additional military activity inside the Gulf is disruptive and has a big effect on us. It could have a big effect on oil prices. We’ve still got troops in Afghanistan, which borders Iran. And so our preferred solution here is diplomatic.”

As sensible as Obama’s statement was, he seems to have understated what the likely cost to the US would be. Frankly, the cost would be exorbitant in economic, military, and political sense. This is a president who recently concluded a war in Iraq, and is winding down another in Afghanistan. It makes no sense for him to restart the war in Iraq and then postpone the end-date in Afghanistan. And of course, there are a dozen or so other places where Iran can (non-conventionally) bloody America’s nose.

The war efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq have already cost the US taxpayers billions and billions of dollars. And the number keeps climbing. Washington should spend its resources at home for homebuilding efforts — not abroad, starting and fighting a war and a country that has not encroached on its sovereignty or integrity. More importantly, thousands of patriotic young men and women have already given their lives and comfort to the defence of their country. How much more can and should America ask of these heroes? A decade of war is more than enough for the vast majority of Americans to tolerate.

For the Israelis, the cost would be far greater (unless of course they have the wherewithal to surgical strike and paralyse Iran). The Saudi Arabian and other governments in the region may not be a huge fan of Tehran. But what about the Arab states? In many of these countries, it matters not what the position of their governments may be. Many of these governments would quickly realise how much respect — not necessarily love — their people have for their brothers and sisters in Iran once the conflict begins. “The enemy of my enemy is my friend”, is especially instructive in this part of the world.

Second, majority of the Islamic world are likely to take sides with Tehran; so also would the majority of the developing countries. For most people in these parts of the world, they see and sense hypocrisy on the part of the US, and arrogance on the part of the Israelis. For more than five decades, America’s support for Israel has been unyielding even in situations where, the world believes, Israel has been the clear aggressor. And why, they wonder and continue to wonder, can Israel own nuclear weapons — but not Iran? In addition, many people in the developing world are terribly unhappy with how Israel has been treating the Palestinians.

Third, there is the issue of preemptive strike. No matter what the Israelis and their allies may think of the Iranian leadership, this is a country that has not invaded another country in its recent history. All they have done is to do what many other nations have done: obtain nuclear weapons. Why attack a country solely because she is pursuing what is within her national security ambition? After all, this is a sovereign nation. A preemptive strike, by the US or Israel, therefore, would be seen as illegal, unethical and unconscionable: a declaration of war on a peaceful country!

For many years now, anti-Semitism in the US, Asia, and the Middle East and elsewhere has been on the decline. One of the unintended consequences of an Israeli attack is that it would renew such negative and wholly unwholesome feeling. And finally, there is something about wars that the world is very familiar with: for the most part, those who start a war are never in a position to script how it should or would end. John G. Stoessinger, in “Why Nations Go To War,” reminded us that, “The emperors and generals who sent their men to war in August 1914 thought in terms of weeks, not months, let alone years.” This is one of the enduring ironies of wars.

And here is a final irony: if Tehran was an ally of the United States, no one would have opposed her quest for nuclear weapons. Indeed, it would have been in order for Tehran to arm itself whichever way it wanted. Today, Iran is simply paying the price for refusing to kowtow to anybody; for refusing to be a marionette; and for its singular pursuit of its sovereign goals. What’s wrong with that?

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It is too late to stop Iran and the whole World knows it. Israel is panicking, because their trump card in Middle Eastern relations will no last for long; Iran will soon have nukes.
The question is if Iran will proliferate their weapons to Syria, Levanon and Jordan. Thats where the real beans is. That aside, a nuclear equipped Iran could sit in the strait of Homuz with all confidence, like a horned monster and dictate the direction of the oil market; an act that will lead to war.

It is too late to stop Iran and the whole World knows it. Israel is panicking, because their trump card in Middle Eastern relations will no last for long; Iran will soon have nukes.
The question is if Iran will proliferate their weapons to Syria, Levanon and Jordan. Thats where the real beans is. That aside, a nuclear equipped Iran could sit in the strait of Homuz with all confidence, like a horned monster and dictate the direction of the oil market; an act that will lead to war.

@ beaf dont underestimate the power of GOD. yes i true  that iran gots what it takes to defend it's  terrectory, but we all no that it wount take 8 month to for them iran to surrender if iserael should come for them. what the world is afraid is intervension from other nations e.g russia, chinna and the whole arab  community. and which will result to amagedon, 3rd world war. becuse the u.s and hi allies would not be sleeping when such happens to jeruselem .