sarahatuba:
Why are we just going back nd forth on this issue......im sure putting this as one of their campaign strategies was a collective decision by people who know all these y'all are writing....nt just a one man decision.......they arent as stupid or dumb as we might think......lets give them time to prove they can do it...lets not be pessimistic #my 2kobo on the matter

Bayswater:
Barcanista, you have hit the nail on the head.

We already have a budget deficit of about N1.4trillion and somebody wants to add additional spending of N1.9trillion to that.

So the question still remain: where will Buhari get additional N3.3trillion to finance the budget and his welfare programmes?

Instead of the 'chained agents' to answer this question, they will rather abuse the OP.

I have addressed this in my other post: VAT would be increased from 5% to 10% or 15% and income taxes too would be increased. So it won't be out of place if I tell Nigerians to get ready for the impending inflation.

The discussion now should be how to combat the impending inflation and the attendant austerity?

I have already moved on from Buhari's welfare policies and budget because I know it is not only achievable but it's also a blatant lie

barcanista:
We are not in Zombie republic where we take everything said by politicians without scrutiny. HOW do they plan to implement if if they are not stupid?

atlwireles:


Any attempt to increase taxes at the federal level will not pass. The Nigerian Business community and financial donate states will aggressively fight it. Remember most of the APC states are what I call collection state, vat increase will not affect, because they are paying almost zero right now. Only Lagos is going to feel the effects, and they rather see a State tax increase than a federal one.. The opposition states will do the Nigerian thing and call it a[b] tribal economic sabotage[/b].

atlwireles:


Any attempt to increase taxes at the federal level will not pass. The Nigerian Business community and financial donate states will aggressively fight it. Remember most of the APC states are what I call collection state, vat increase will not affect, because they are paying almost zero right now. Only Lagos is going to feel the effects, and they rather see a State tax increase than a federal one.. The opposition states will do the Nigerian thing and call it a tribal economic sabotage.

atlwireles:


Any attempt to increase taxes at the federal level will not pass. The Nigerian Business community and financial donate states will aggressively fight it. Remember most of the APC states are what I call collection state, vat increase will not affect, because they are paying almost zero right now. Only Lagos is going to feel the effects, and they rather see a State tax increase than a federal one.. The opposition states will do the Nigerian thing and call it a tribal economic sabotage.

otr1:
Please include the value of what we lose in oil theft. I hope you know that would be part of our earnings when Buhari comes on board?

And by the way, believe we run on deficit at your own peril.

barcanista:
Lol, Buhari administration should not expect scrutiny of his proposed programs. Last night some of his supporters took the entire Nigerians for fools with their gigantic and ignorant calculation including a Supermod here. I suppose Buhari and his crew are yet to understand how things work or they deliberately scammed us.

musing2:


Lol @ tribal economic sabotage.

SLIDEwaxie:
thank you for your stupidity. But tell me Sir, what is the meaning of MOST APC states when we all knw dt in yorubaland, except Lagos, the state that collects more tax is Ondo state?

As last time I checked, it is still a PDP state

barcanista:
Bros, even if he's to increase VAT to 10% or 15% he won't still be able to raise the said amount. I will really like to see those people that were celebrating at their ignorance on Obiagelli's thread last night including my friend OAM4J.

If he should go ahead to implement it, we will experience "massive" Hyperinflation and a total collapse to our economy. Zimbabwe will be coming to our aide

PointB:
The op raise salient points and it is also proper to start the debate now. Nigeria is an on-going concern, the fact the team Buhari are not ready to debate their agenda doesn't stop other people exercing the freedom.


That said, I personally don't like welfarism as policy, as the alternative forgone are usually capital projects!

So if you ask me to choose between feeding school children and building and equipping schools, I'll choose the latter!

If I have to make a choice between paying allowance to graduates, indigent population, etc and constructing roads, and railways, and more ports, I'll choose the latter.

I supported fuel subsidy removal, and I'm against other welfare programs that subsidize consumption, simply because subsidy today, means lower quality future. It means that for our today, we are sacrificing tomorrow.

And as the op has noted the cost of these welfare policy is just too homongous, even if we can afford it (which obviously we can't), it simply not sustainable, and the people of course will never be satisfied!

Alas, APC/Buhari have promised, they must deliver! Chikena!!

SLIDEwaxie:
In Ogun state, before the advent of APC, PDP led govts alwys say there is no money and they eben borrow to pay workers so, there won't be much developments.

When the APC came in, the development was massive and they weren't borrowing to pay salaries. And the money they borrowed were judiciously interpreted as structures of development. When asked where he source 'these' money from after then 'no money' national anthem of the PDP, he replied:

There is money everywhere and every angle. All you need to do is curtail corruption, reduce the amount you spend on your govt, follow up on how money disbursed to ministries are spent, and u will be surprised at the abundance you have.

The monies your cronies make in the creeks that they chop alone is enuff to do many unimaginable things for the benefit of the masses.

buskie13:
I don't just know wat to say..but it's a surety APC led govt will fail woefully ...the CHANGE they asked for is going to affect Nigeria badly...i don't have much to say...

GEJ remains my President till 2019

PointB:


lol, Ogun state is actually one of the most indebted states in Nigeria.

https://www.nairaland.com/1390145/debt-profile-nigerian-states-party-by-party

I believe that 'judiciously' in your comment is debatable.

barcanista:
It's like you miss the beginning or you lack comprehension. Read the Part 1 and you will know how the N1.87 trillion was arrived at.
https://www.nairaland.com/2265570/buhari-social-program-laudable-laughable

SLIDEwaxie:
In Ogun state, before the advent of APC, PDP led govts alwys say there is no money and they eben borrow to pay workers so, there won't be much developments.

When the APC came in, the development was massive and they weren't borrowing to pay salaries. And the money they borrowed were judiciously interpreted as structures of development. When asked where he source 'these' money from after then 'no money' national anthem of the PDP, he replied:

There is money everywhere and every angle. All you need to do is curtail corruption, reduce the amount you spend on your govt, follow up on how money disbursed to ministries are spent, and u will be surprised at the abundance you have.

The monies your cronies make in the creeks that they chop alone is enuff to do many unimaginable things for the benefit of the masses.

atlwireles:


Keep your comment to the topic, I repeat most of the incoming APC states are collector states. They give nothing to the center. I know you want a tribal insult march, I just hope the mods keeps this moniker of yours in the cooler, so you can log in with another one.

barcanista:
Bros, shey you understand economics so? Abeg no de fall hand.

According to President Goodluck Jonathan, 300,000-400,000 barrels of oil per day, or more than 10% of all Nigeria's production, is being lost at a cost to the state and oil companies of around £1bn a month – more than is spent on education and the health of the nation's 168 million people. Not only is Nigerian oil theft helping to keep the world price of oil high, it is causing corruption and social disorder, says the president.

barcanista:
PLEASE TAKE TIME TO READ

This thread is in response to the Thread by Obiagelli's https://www.nairaland.com/2265908/buharis-social-program-very-possible. In her bid to defend the Social policy of Mr Buhari, Obiagelli insulted the intelligence of Nigerians with respect to what is accrued to the Federal Government in revenue per fiscal year. Let us start by putting things in order...

Nigeria's Revenue:
Nigeria's revenue is accrued through oil export, non oil export, oil tax and non oil tax. The Federal Inland Revenue Service is statutory responsible for the collection of both oil profit tax and non oil tax. The money for oil export goes directly to the Federation Account via the NNPC. The money generated via non oil export goes directly to the federation account through relevant Agencies.

Oil Revenue:
The total sum realised through Oil export(after operational cost) and oil profit tax is known as "Oil Revenue"

Non Oil Revenue
While the sum realised through export of other commodities(after operational cost) and the money realised from non oil profit tax is called "Non Oil Revenue".

What Did Nigeria Earn Between January 2014 and January 2015?
Nigeria Total Earning:
Jan 2014 - June 2014 = N5.109trn

June 2014 - Jan 2015= N3.676trn

Total: N8.785trn

Total Oil Revenue (Oil Export Earning + Oil taxes)
= 70% of Total Revenue ie N6.15trn

*Total Non Oil Revenue (Non Oil Export + Non oil taxes)
= 30% of N8.785trn ie N2.635 trn

Jan 2014- June 2014 = N1.08trn*
July 2014 - Jan 2015= N1.556trn [N2.635trn]

Understanding FIRS 2014 Report:
FIRS announced that the sum of N4.69trn was generated in 2014. The report indicated that N2.45 trillion, representing 52.96 per cent, was collected from petroleum profit tax while N2.24 trillion, representing 47.04 per cent, was collected from non-oil taxes during the period.
Analysis
This sum(N4.69trn) is not independent of the published N8.785trn that Nigeria was said to earn between Jan 2014 and January 2014. It is a part and parcel of the total revenue.

How Much Did FG Get In 2014?
There is a consolidated Sharing formula between FG, States, LGs and Oil Producin States(13%) after operational and other associated cost has been deducted.
FG Earnings In 2014
1st Qtr: N912 billion
2nd Qtr: N864.2 billion
3rd Qtr: N924.68 billon
4th Qtr: N617.186 billion
Total 2014= N3.318trn

2014 Budget: N4.6trn
FG Projected Earning for 2014= N3.73tr
Real Earning = N3.318trn
Deficit in 2014 Fiscal Year: N1.282trn

What this means is that the money accrued to the FG was not even enough to fund 2014 budget. We had a deficit of N1.282trn.
Also note that the fall in oil price affected our earning.

Looking At 2015 Budget:
The 2015 budget(as adjusted) stand at N4.3trn.
Projected Revenue For 2015= N3.603trn
Deficit: N1.297trn (N4.3trn - N3.603trn)

This means the 2015 budget will be run on deficit of N1.297trn (as confirmed by the Senate).

Looking At Buhari's Proposal
With Buhari's proposed N1.89tr Social program, it invariably means an additional N1.89trn will be added to the projected deficit of N1.29 trn ie N3.187trn if he is to go ahead with paying of N5000 to 25 million unemployed annually, from where will he be able to make up the HUGE deficit?.

Analysing The Argument of The Pro-Buharis
Some Pro-Buharis claim that the project will be done in phase of 5m people per year. However, the problem of "How to identify these 5m beneficiaries" and what will be the for selection?
Anyway, that is for another day. Let's go by their argument...
Unemployment benefit: 5m * N5000 = N300 billion.

*The N300b is for the payment benefit alone*. Add that to logistics, overhead and operational cost that the program will incur (approx 50% ie N150billion) annually.

Total: N300b + N150b = N450b

Feeding for 40m Public School Children = N373 billion.

Subtotal: N823 billion.

Where Will Buhari Source For the estimated N823 billion?

- Remove Subsidy? Total package for petrol and kerosene subsidies plus SURE-P fund = N166.5b. That is clearly not up to 30%.

- Invest All Capital Expenditure + Subsidy? This will be a very silly move though. But adding Capital Expenditure and Subsidy will total N866.9 billion. Just a little above the projected N823billion.
Going this route means there will be no project for road, no infrastructure and other capital projects. In fact, it is synonymous to eating the present away.

- Will He Borrow? Borrowing to fund Social Welfare program is synonymous to eating away the future. That means indebting our future and a panacea to economic collapse likened to what happened to Greece if not worse. It also means increasing our already projected deficit of N1.29 trillion

What is the fate of this Social program? Feasible, Laudable or Laughable?

bogzyboy:
[s][/s]


[s]Can you show me a link where Buhari proposed N1.89tr for his social program? Or are you just making that up[/s]?

Plus10:
Bacanista no need for too much analysis before someone will know that the so called welfare package is not feasible and at the sametime laughable.The apc government should just ignore the program and apologize to Nigerians for scamming them.

Bayswater:


I know, they will not raise any meaningful revenue from it but it will cause severe hardship on Nigerians as prices of daily needs will go up. We don enter this one chance sha, may God help us.