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CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I - Business (7) - Nairaland

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Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by sunerobaba: 5:59pm On Jun 15, 2016
joseph1013:
After crashing the economy with his stubbornness, Buhari goes back to his vomit and does the same thing he swore not to do, both on local and international media.

May we not be cursed with leaders whose egos are bigger than their love of the common good of the masses.
Receive sense in jesus name
Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by AreaFada2: 6:00pm On Jun 15, 2016
Meringe:
In all sincerity, this CBN gov is the worst so far. Under his care, naira lost 100% value in the market. How can you justify that? His actions caused most of this wahala, not necessarily the fundamentals. In short, the actions of this govt caused this wahala. Policy somersault is a very dangerous one. You don't go on experience tour with the lives of 200 million Nigerians.
In the height of militancy and economic meltdown, Soludo and Sanuisi managed the situation respectively.


The much i expected the dollar to naira is 220 at low price of crude oil.


Conclusion : They economy management team are serious learners.

The show is run by Buhari. Was the CBN gov not there during GEJ's time? Blame him for not resigning when Bubu began dictating his draconian policies of the 1980s.

1 Like

Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by Guyman02: 6:00pm On Jun 15, 2016
Max24:

I cant understand your conclusion from your premise. Are you suggesting we should continue deceiving ourselves about how corrupt we are, like when Jonathan said stealing is not corruption ? Libyas problems and our corruption status are totally unrelated. If we refuse to openly admit we are corrupt we won't start to fight it. Look at the ways China and Ghana has fought corruption- openly not by hiding it. Rawlings had to openly execute many politicians then and China imposed death penalty on the corrupt. Technically, this two countries openly admitted their corruption status hence the need for drastic legislation. Which effective penalty has Nigeria imposed on its corrupt ? It is only in Nigeria that laws against homosexuals are stiffer than laws against looters.

Have you ever heard any Chinese or Ghanaian leader admit to any westerner that corruption is a problem in China or Ghana? They deal with the problem drastically at home and when they are outside they tell you that China is the best investment destination and that the racist Chinese are the most accommodating set of people.
I saw the Chinese Foreign minister angrily telling a western journalist to get educated when he mentioned that China has a human rights violation problem.
See the video here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L99fiuE4-0c

2 Likes

Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by adebrave1(m): 6:04pm On Jun 15, 2016
[quote author=jam13 post=46603180][/quote]

I'd like it if you gonna drive me through it.

I'd appreciate
Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by Pavore9: 6:05pm On Jun 15, 2016
erico2k2:

How about your raw materials and machinery?

The FX earned takes care of raw materials while the machinery and parts being used has been successfully fabricated locally cutting off the hitherto importation from the U.S.
Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by Favolly(f): 6:05pm On Jun 15, 2016
Finally, reason has prevailed!

Best 'economic' news I've heard all year...

2 Likes

Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by adebrave1(m): 6:05pm On Jun 15, 2016
[quote author=jam13 post=46603180][/quote]


I'd like it if you gonna drive me through it.

I'd appreciate
Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by Nobody: 6:07pm On Jun 15, 2016
awesomeb1783:
After calling Nig shithole and you want to succeed in it? Can I remind you that it's only a shithead that will succeed in shithole
what a lame attempt at playing smart. so is Nigeria your personal property? am I not also a Nigerian? MYOB

1 Like

Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by Kingspin(m): 6:08pm On Jun 15, 2016
blackpanda:
[s][/s]

Please be quiet. Intelligent people are conversing
Price of goods and service to go up further, expert warns.
Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by Kingspin(m): 6:09pm On Jun 15, 2016
blackpanda:
[s][/s]

Please be quiet. Intelligent people are conversing
With the new policy. Price of goods and service to go up further, expert warns.
Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by AreaFada2: 6:11pm On Jun 15, 2016
Max24:

I cant understand your conclusion from your premise. Are you suggesting we should continue deceiving ourselves about how corrupt we are, like when Jonathan said stealing is not corruption ? Libyas problems and our corruption status are totally unrelated. If we refuse to openly admit we are corrupt we won't start to fight it. Look at the ways China and Ghana has fought corruption- openly not by hiding it. Rawlings had to openly execute many politicians then and China imposed death penalty on the corrupt. Technically, this two countries openly admitted their corruption status hence the need for drastic legislation. Which effective penalty has Nigeria imposed on its corrupt ? It is only in Nigeria that laws against homosexuals are stiffer than laws against looters.
When Buhari stops using dozens of SAN to fight his certificate fraud case in court and simply present it, we can let him talk about corruption. Until then he is one big scam and hypocrite.
Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by bajirao(m): 6:13pm On Jun 15, 2016
[quote author=Rilwayne001 post=46600246][/quote]
grin grin grin grin grin
Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by jinglesbaby: 6:15pm On Jun 15, 2016
Exactly! We should have seen this coming since the fuel scarcity issue! First there was scarcity and then an increase in price but with a cap and more availability. There has been dollar scarcity and hoarding since, it could even be that the scarcity and hoarding were artificially created by some greedy pple somewhere or forced on us by the powers that be from Europe and US! God, help us all! In developed countries where fx exchange rate is determined by market forces, it's high company taxes that led to the exodus of a lot of companies and taxes in these so-called developed countries are even put to good use which citizens benefit from. Now compare Nigeria?




GreatEngineer:

OK with the CAP in place, it will be fine and will work well but without it, sorry we are in for another messy trial and error policy cos people salary still remain the same while everything in the market will hit the sky.
Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by Laredojohn(m): 6:20pm On Jun 15, 2016
Monday is already by the corner.. let's wait and see
Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by Max24: 6:31pm On Jun 15, 2016
Guyman02:


Have you ever heard any Chinese or Ghanaian leader admit to any westerner that corruption is a problem in China or Ghana? They deal with the problem drastically at home and when they are outside they tell you that China is the best investment destination and that the racist Chinese are the most accommodating set of people.
I saw the Chinese Foreign minister angrily telling a western journalist to get educated when he mentioned that China has a human rights violation problem.
See the video here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L99fiuE4-0c
At the rate we are going in this country we will even if God should come down and ask about our corruption status maybe we would deny it even to God himself. My bro my view is that let's put pressure first on these greedy politicians and then we can talk of defending our integrity. Jesus said he that confess his sins will be forgiven but he that covers his shall be exposed. Let's not cover these corrupt politicians. For the west they already have an effective system that deals with the corrupt among them - what do we have ? You can not give what you don't have. See how Panama papers exposee led to the resignation of Iceland's PM but strengthened our own Senate President. Let's have strong laws first and then we call tell the west to go to blazes.

1 Like

Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by Shym3xx: 6:43pm On Jun 15, 2016
Let me crack some jokes before I disappear.

Where that nyggah sukkot at? Sukkot, since you're moving to naij - better make sure they pay you in US dollars cos you don't want to come back with something that looks like this toilet paper below:



^^^You'll bring a trillion naira back to the UK and you'll get £5 back in return, Mr. Nigerian Trillionare looool. grin grin grin grin
Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by 4everGrand(m): 6:45pm On Jun 15, 2016
alexistaiwo:
this is getting stale. Have lost faith in this pathetic government. If CBN like let them put naira @ 10000 to dollar. The average Nigerian that will succeed in this shithole called Nigeria will succeed and I am definitely one of them.
enough said

So you chose to live in a 'shiithole'? You wanna marry someone from a shiithole? You plan on doing business in a shiithole?
My country IS NOT a shiithole, young man.

2 Likes

Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by TheGoodJoe(m): 6:49pm On Jun 15, 2016
Shym3xx:


Lol. Even the Bank of England intervenes all the time to keep the Pounds Sterling afloat. Now imagine a country as unstable as Nigeria, with a very weak currency and, volatility in everything - yet they think pure float is the best option and some investors would fly out of thin air to invest there. It will dawn on them soon. grin

Anyway, anyone interested in reading the implications of pure floating on emerging economies can read this research paper from UCLA (it cited Russia, Mexico et al): http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty/sebastian.edwards/emerging.pdf

I don't know how Nigeria will escape hyperinflation (with the crazy inflation already plaguing the country) and most likely a default with this one. I'll be on the look-out, regardless.

As for the lousy economic theorists, who're no different from MBA holders who can't run a simple business, it'll dawn on you lot as well, when poverty hits you in ya faces lool.


Thank you very much. Super post. Let me look into the document and get back.
Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by designking: 6:54pm On Jun 15, 2016
Shym3xx:

What they're telling you in layman's term is that: salary will remain the same, but prices would double, thus slowly but surely wiping out the "middle class" who're the backbone of every economy and it will triple the poverty rate lol.

Population means nothing when there's no viable middle class and as an investor, I won't want to invest in a country like that unless I only deal with luxury goods the upper class can afford.
A step at a time bro. We need the economy to heal gradually and certainly wages will be better soon.
Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by babadee1(m): 6:55pm On Jun 15, 2016
joseph1013:
After crashing the economy with his stubbornness, Buhari goes back to his vomit and does the same thing he swore not to do, both on local and international media.

May we not be cursed with leaders whose egos are bigger than their love of the common good of the masses.

The mark of good leadership is that if something is not working you change tactics even if it makes you look bad. I think this new policy should be a welcome change and not another opportunity for wailers to wail. Better late than never.
Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by Shym3xx: 7:02pm On Jun 15, 2016
designking:

A step at a time bro. We need the economy to heal gradually and certainly wages will be better soon.

Anyway, I just checked the countries using free/pure float in Africa and, it's only Somalia. Well, it seems Nigeria is in good company. grin

Outside Africa, only Canada and US use free/pure float (Canada is too rich with small population and the US has petrodollar, world currency, and massive gold) - while the UK, Australia, Mexico, EU, Chile, Japan, Norway, Poland, and Sweden do manage their float and their apex banks do intervene from time to time. I know of the UK and EU. And Japan doesn't just manage its currency's float- it manipulates its currency lol.

Nigeria and Somalia - two great countries and pace-setters when it comes to emerging economies. grin cool
Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by Image123(m): 7:05pm On Jun 15, 2016
afroditte:
I remember you staunchly defending buharinomics last year.... so this is all you have to say now?


Sure, I stand by whatever i said. All was done in the best interest of the country and to plug and block the leakages of a seriously bleeding country. When there's trouble, you TROUBLEshoot until you arrive at a good place. The new plan is not the destination by the way, it is a when all else fails policy IMHO. It is not a magic wand that sweeps away all our economic woes. Buharinomics is still very much on point compared to what obtained previously. That one where FG borrowed and looted with impunity, where the coordinate minister confessed to high blood pressure and incessant headache. I'll choose Buharinomics a thousand times. The man is not as rigid or bigoted as painted, this picture is clearer by the day.

1 Like

Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by Oyingold: 7:09pm On Jun 15, 2016
Explanation on NairaMetrics

The Central Bank Governor has just announced a full float of the Naira in a press conference in Abuja. The CBN Governor informed a stunned audience that the exchange rate will be market determined and that the CBN will also participate in the market occasionally. The CBN also maintained that the 41 items banned last year for access to forex for imports remained banned. The CBN has also appointed primary dealers for the first time which is expected to help boost FX liquidity in the market.

In a remarkable turn on events for a CBN Governor and Government that have for months held tightly to an artificial exchange rate, the CBN Governor also revealed that we will be operating a single market suggesting that we will no longer have two windows.



The CBN also introduced a two way quote which basically means that the market will act like the stock market where buyers and sellers will state price and quantity they are willing to sell.

The CBN Governor also confirmed that all the “pent-up” demand awaiting to be filled (for example airlines looking to repatriate their dollars out of Nigeria) will be met at the interbank market but advised caution for buyers looking to front load orders. In what was quite a remarkable press conference, he clearly stated that the CBN has enough reserves to meet demand and is willing to put its reserves on the line.

The market will also include financial products such as futures where businesses who need dollars in the near distant future can now hedge by buying at a price today but get the dollars delivered when they actually need it.

Implications

As per the new price of the Naira, the CBN Governor mentioned that the price will be known when the market opens officially on Monday.

The implication of this could be wide-ranging and we will know more as more details emerge after the press briefing. However, we can only but conclude that the end of the black market is near as anyone and everyone can now buy dollars at any bank or with authorized dealers at a price that is market determined.

Nairametrics had reported severally that the black market rates might drop if the CBN announces a float as investors and businesses who refused to import dollars into Nigeria can not bring in their forex at a price they believe is market determined. This might take some time at the worst but we believe the market will be flooded with liquidity in due course. Indeed we anticipate some volatility as the market takes shape and tracks how liquid the market will be.

In other countries where a full float was launched, the value of the currency of the home country did plummet woefully before it found its level. However, the rates between the interbank market and the parallel market did narrow which we expect will also replicate in Nigeria.

The CBN Governor did not dwell on the controls currently in place such as limits to withdrawals of dollars from your bank domiciliary accounts or spending limits when abroad. However, we believe these limits will be removed in due time as the market becomes more liquid.

The CBN in its recently released policy details also revealed that the BDC’s will not be able to buy dollars from the interbank marker essentially throwing them under the bus.

What this also means is that if you own cash dollars then you have a choice of either depositing it in a bank or selling to Bureaux De Change (BDCs). If you want to buy without filling in all the requirements banks may ask you for such as your passport, then it’s probably the BDC you want to go to.

Bureaux De Change is officially a cash and carry market where major transactions can no longer take place. The incentives for banks to round trip and sell to BDCs is effectively removed since the interbank is market driven and more liquid.

The CBN also said applicable exchange rate for the purpose of import duty payments shall be the daily inter-bank FX closing rate as published on the CBN website. This means import duties will now be paid based on the closing exchange rate for the day at the interbank market. These rates can be obtained at the website of the FMDQ.

Transactions involving purchases of things like airline tickets, visa renewals, master card/visa transactions for online purchases abroad, school fees, medical tourism etc. will also now be paid using the interbank rate at the close of business every day.

So essentially, the price you pay for tickets, visas etc. can vary from day to day depending on the exchange rate for that particular day (except the CBN agrees with the merchant to fix a spot price).

The CBN folks, will no longer determine how much you pay for FX. That power is now in the hands of the market.

Even if the parallel market still exist, the interbank market will at worst mirror that price eliminating a price disparity that allows arbitrage to thrive.

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Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by Shym3xx: 7:14pm On Jun 15, 2016
TheGoodJoe:


Thank you very much. Super post. Let me look into the document and get back.

This is another research paper from Harvard, albeit it's more of a comparative analysis of exchange rate regimes: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/ADBpaperOnExRateRegimes.pdf

And this is the 2014 IMF report of FX arrangements of different countries: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/nft/2014/areaers/ar2014.pdf
Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by designking: 7:16pm On Jun 15, 2016
Shym3xx:


Anyway, I just checked the countries using free/pure float in Africa and, it's only Somalia. Well, it seems Nigeria is in good company. grin

Outside Africa, only Canada and US use free/pure float (Canada is too rich with small population and the US has petrodollar, world currency, and massive gold) - while the UK, Australia, Mexico, EU, Chile, Japan, Norway, Poland, and Sweden do manage their float and their apex banks do intervene from time to time. I know of the UK and EU. And Japan doesn't just manage its currency's float- it manipulates its currency lol.

Nigeria and Somalia - two great countries and pace-setters when it comes to emerging economies. grin cool
Lets give this policy some time, at least, we will be around to judge the outcome. I know there is going to be a lot of reviews and regular adjustments to this policy as we move forward.

2 Likes

Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by darlenese(f): 7:26pm On Jun 15, 2016
OK

So that means , #1 = $1


Abi?

grin grin grin
Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by TheGoodJoe(m): 7:30pm On Jun 15, 2016
Shym3xx:
Let me crack some jokes before I disappear.

Where that nyggah sukkot at? Sukkot, since you're moving to naij - better make sure they pay you in US dollars cos you don't want to come back with something that looks like this toilet paper below:



^^^You'll bring a trillion naira back to the UK and you'll get £5 back in return, Mr. Nigerian Trillionare looool. grin grin grin grin


I did a very quick study of the report due to time. So my opinion is not concrete.

I think the main concern between a fixed (pegged) exchange rate and a floating one has to do with the direct impact on inflation.

Most modern economic authors agree that a fixed exchange rate is susceptible to shocks from external crisis and external economic reports. While a fixed one receives less shock.

If you study the inflation of goods and services due to the recent drop in Crude Oil Prices, you will agree with the economic theorists that the effect is drastic. We are an emerging economy and the recent high inflation rate supports this theory.

I think the floating/flexible exchange rate is the right move. If we are going to reduce the impact of foreign economic news on the inflation here.

This will create a favorable market for investors.

2 Likes

Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by Seun(m): 7:37pm On Jun 15, 2016
If they are truly floating it, why is the system so complicated? It makes my head hurt. It looks as if the primary dealers are the new CBNs.

1 Like 2 Shares

Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by hezsquirt(m): 7:40pm On Jun 15, 2016
alexistaiwo:
this is getting stale. Have lost faith in this pathetic government. If CBN like let them put naira @ 10000 to dollar. The average Nigerian that will succeed in this shithole called Nigeria will succeed and I am definitely one of them.
enough said
dundi,, u calling ur country a shit hole....that means ure no different from a maggot.. #no offense..
btw, u said Ull succeed in this shithole, THEN ULL BE CALLED A KING SHITHOLE....oponu
Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by Shym3xx: 7:41pm On Jun 15, 2016
TheGoodJoe:


I did a very quick study of the report due to time. So my opinion is not concrete.

I think the main concern between a fixed (pegged) exchange rate and a floating one has to do with the direct impact on inflation.

Most modern economic authors agree that a fixed exchange rate is susceptible to shocks from external crisis and external economic reports. While a fixed one receives less shock.

If you study the inflation of goods and services due to the recent drop in Crude Oil Prices, you will agree with the economic theorists that the effect is drastic. We are an emerging economy and the recent high inflation rate supports this theory.

I think the floating/flexible exchange rate is the right move. If we are going to reduce the impact of foreign economic news on the inflation here.

This will create a favorable market for investors.

You did selective reading (albeit ya conclusion is also wrong) but didn't read this except from the end of page 4 and beginning of page 5:

This flexibility (floating), however, usually comes at the cost of some loss in credibility and, thus, tends to be associated (on average) with higher inflation. Alternatively, fixed exchange rates reduce the degree of flexibility of the system but impart (in theory) a higher degree of credibility to policy making. Since the public believes that, under fixed rates, the primary goal of monetary policy is 5 to preserve the exchange rate parity, they moderate their wage and price expectations, thus allowing the economy to attain a lower rate of inflation.

^^^The key point there is inflation.
Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by Adeevah(m): 7:42pm On Jun 15, 2016
feature11:
Does this mean that Naira has been devalued?


Yes...technically

No...monetarily
Re: CBN Floats The Naira, The Implications For You And I by TheGoodJoe(m): 7:43pm On Jun 15, 2016
Seun:
If they are truly floating it, why is the system so complicated? It makes my head hurt. It looks as if the primary dealers are the new CBNs.


Too complicated. The main thing is that the floating exchange rates makes the market take care of itself with less government input. The demand and Supply determines the exchange Rate.

Now the Central Bank will not have to use our reserves to support institutions and businesses that operate under the fixed exchange rate.

Remember CBN governor talking of providing forex for Dangote's refinery. Now that pressure is off the Government.

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