After a two-week delay in releasing the all important Gross Domestic Product (GDP) economic growth data, Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will on Wednesday, officially confirm that the country is in recession with data pointing to a further GDP contraction of minus two percent (-2%) in the second quarter of fiscal year 2016, BusinessDay can authoritatively reveal.
The data would show a record lowest deep in GDP posted by the country in 25 years after the negative growth of minus 0.36 percent (-0.36%) recorded in the first quarter. Technically, an economy is in recession if it records two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
Nigeria’s GDP contracted by 0.36 percent year-on-year in the first three months of 2016, as the country’s non-oil sector contracted mainly due to a slowdown in the services and manufacturing sectors, caused largely by a weakening naira, while lower oil prices continue to drag the oil sector down.
The Q1 GDP was against 2.11 percent expansion in the previous period and way below forecasts of 1.7 percent growth. But before the first quarter contraction, the last time that Nigeria saw a negative annual growth rate, going by the rebased numbers, was in 1991 at -0.55 percent. Before that, it had settled at -0.51 percent and then -7.5 percent in 1983.
The figures would indicate that agriculture showed some growth in the second quarter, but both industry and services contracted, a highly placed source told BusinessDay. “Generally, industry, which includes manufacturing was largely affected by the difficulty in accessing forex,” the source said.
Figures would also show that the crude oil and gas sector recorded the worst performance.
Recent reports have it that Nigeria has lost over N1.1 trillion in oil revenues since the resurgence of militancy in the oil-rich Niger Delta region, as oil installations witnessed about 28 attacks just between February 10, 2016 and the end of last month (July) by the rampaging militants.
After hitting a two-year low in June, due to militants’ attacks on oil facilities, production managed to increase from the 1.4m barrels per day to 1.5m bpd, still much lower than the 2.2m bpd OPEC quota for the country, as well as 2016 budget estimates.
A confirmation by the NBS on Wednesday is ominous as it would obliterate prediction by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) earlier this year that Nigeria would see growth of around 1.8 percent by end of the year. Analysts say that this is because to attain a positive growth by the end of the year, the economy would need significant positive growth for the remaining third and fourth quarters, which remains unlikely, as the economy still struggles with a weakening naira and low oil prices.
But in the first quarter, the oil sector shrank 1.89 percent year-on-year, following an 8.28 percent contraction in the previous quarter. Oil production stood at 2.11 million barrels per day (mbpd), 0.05 mbpd, lower than in the preceding period.
Industrial production shrank 2.24 percent: manufacturing declined 8.39 percent (-13.09 percent in Q4), mining and quarrying fell by 2.96 percent (-8.05 percent in Q4) and electricity, gas, steam and water supply dropped 44.46 percent (+1.2 percent in Q4) and construction fell 5.37 percent (+4.14 percent in Q4).
The non-oil sector went down 0.18 percent, from a 3.14 percent growth in the previous period. Services expanded at a much slower 0.8 percent, compared with a 3.69 percent increase in the previous period.
Information and communication grew 4.07 percent (+4.21 percent in Q4); internal trade went up by 2.02 percent (+4.69 percent in Q4); while real estate decreased 4.69 percent (+0.79 percent) and finance and insurance fell 11.28 percent (+6.41 percent in Q4).
Agriculture grew 3.09 percent, lower than a 3.48 percent expansion in Q4.
Quarter on quarter, real GDP dropped by 13.7 percent, following a 3.1 percent growth in the previous period.

source: https://businessdayonline.com/nbs-to-reveal-we-are-in-recession-with-2-gdp-growth-in-q2/

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The data would show a record lowest deep in GDP posted by the country in 25 years after the negative growth of minus 0.36 percent (-0.36%) recorded in the first quarter. Technically, an economy is in recession if it records two consecutive quarters of negative growth.


Buhari has finally Buharified and zombified the Nigerian Economy

"The data would show a record lowest deep in GDP posted by the country in 25 years after the negative growth of minus 0.36 percent (-0.36%) recorded in the first quarter." Very useless APC government headed by Buhari

if only there are plans in place to make this a "floor", unfortunately nothing significant enough to reverse this trend, a careful look at the charts when presented will lead any rational individual to infer that Q3/Q4 will maintain the existing trend.

God help us all.

this is what happens when a government spends more time searching the records for sins of the past government so that it can deal with them rather than focusing on what has been achieved/needs to be done.

fact is fighting corruption should be a by-product of good governance & not governance in itself.

when you run a result-driven government, loopholes are identified, checked & then you move on. you don't dwell on the sin & gather everybody round to mock the sinners while the economy stands still.

may God grant our leaders the wisdom to lead us well & the humility to accept responsibility for their errors as they would want to accept the praises when they get it right.

Those that said they will vote for someone with NEPA bill as certificate should noe hush and enjoy the folly of that decision.
Perhaps. Next time when they are sick, they should go to the butchers to cut them open instead of a doctor or surgeon.dince education does not matter

ivandragon:
this is what happens when a government spends more time searching the records for sins of the past government so that it can deal with them rather than focusing on what has been achieved/needs to be done.

fact is fighting corruption should be a by-product of good governance & not governance in itself.

when you run a result-driven government, loopholes are identified, checked & then you move on. you don't dwell on the sin & gather everybody round to mock the sinners while the economy stands still.

may God grant our leaders the wisdom to lead us well & the humility to accept responsibility for their errors as they would want to accept the praises when they get it right.

Truth is many would have preferred the economy to be at astand-still, rather like a slippery fish it is slipping way from the grips of the "unskilled fishermen" we are having retrogressive movements.

Make I see who go blame me for here