progress69:
Clownish question.

The value of Naira is determined mainly by the price of crude.

Jonathan rode on oil tide for 3 years, with nothing to show for it, even in the reserves.

We started feeling the heat of the dropping oil prices which forced Jonathan to devalue Naira to N197 to a dollar, which was trading at N232 to in the parallel market. Bare in mind that oil prices was still as high as $70-75/barrel and Nigeria was producing oil at full capacity. 2.2 million barrels/day.

What do u expect when oil price dipped to low as $28/barrel with little reserves to defend the Naira as was done by Sanusi.

What do u expect, when militants blow up pipelines and reduce our production level to as lownas 1600 million barrels pwr day ( interestingly those that wail the much are always very happy when a bpmb goes off on crude pipe)

Bare in mind that Sanusi used about 50% of the reserves then to defend the economy and Naira, yet Naira lost over 20% of its value. Luckily for Nigeria, or let me say unfortunately for Nigeria, Oil price picked again in a short time.

Why I said unfortunately is because, if oil didn't pick up so fast then, our leaders would have been serious about DIVERSIFICATION!

I refused to read this dumb epistle. So how are countries without oil coping; since according to this thrash you are writing; oil is the determinant decider of fx?

PDJT:


You guys are where you're as a consequence of trying to solve economic problems with political solution.
[Bad Policies, insecurity, human rights abuse, lack of diplomacy, statements like : "Nigerians are criminals/corrupt, women belong to the kitchen" by the supposed number one salesman, in front of world media, has consequences!]

Meanwhile, there is no evidence anywhere in the world or in history books, where a people (Nation/Country) were lifted from poverty to affluence through politics.
Politics has it's limits, economics always come first.
In Malaysia, for example, the Malays have always had political power and used it decisively against others, but the average minority Chinese earn nearly twice what the average majority Malay earn.
Same logic and evidence applies to Blacks/Latinos vs. Chinese/Japanese/Jews in the US.
You can bring that home to your Nigeria.

I will recommend you get the book: "Basic Economics", by Thomas Sowell.

I think it's more like lack of wisdom on the part of our successive leaders as well as followers. A lot of attempts have been made in the past to diversify our economy but lack of patience, continuity, fluctuation in oil price and international conspiracy led to their failure.

This Buhari Presidency represents the 1st time in recent past a revisit has been made for diversification but the followers are not much aware of the need to support this attempt. Moving away from easy money comes with a little hardship and sacrifice before the aim is achieved. As a result of this economic disability our growth and downturn is determined by only one commodity which is crude oil.

FuckyourMama:
The answer 2 ur question is common sense: we had a PhD holder in office back then to steer our economy unlike the waec certificate forger we have now.

If Buhari could have a C6 in Hausa language!, then he was more than useless. Then comes the bombshell, our president had an F9, in Mathematics, I mean Mathematics! Since then, he's not done anythig to upgrade himself; and you are here wondering why Nigeria is in reccession?

Metroescobar:



My friend shut up and stop disturbing the thread with your senseless posts abeg! Adults are trying to debate and no one wants to join you in barking about stale electoral propaganda so go and play with your mates in the sand!

You are so pained. Especially when faced with unavoidable facts. Ndo

vatiqan:



You are so pained. Especially when faced with unavoidable facts. Ndo

Pained? For what? I don't care for buhari and I didn't care for even goodluck but i'm tired of reading dumb posts by foolish kids when I could rather be reading smart arguments?

Or are you a fan of that _wanker?

vatiqan:




If Buhari could have a C6 in Hausa language!, then he was more than useless. Then comes the bombshell, our president had an F9, in Mathematics, I mean Mathematics! Since then, he's not done anythig to upgrade himself; and you are here wondering why Nigeria is in reccession?

My broda d thing tire me o, worse of all is d fact dt he had all diz failures ontop of forgery. I mean what kinda person forges a WAEC certificate n still fails woefully

[s]

Edelweiss44:


Mr Buhari's propagandist, I'm sorry for you and your so-called "expert knowledge". At your age and with your supposed level of high education, you still supported and voted for an unintelligent dullard who cannot even produce an authentic school cert! Shame on you! Look at how the country's economy is now looking like your president's confused life!

You want to tell me that there are no competent technocrats who know what to do under the current situation to salvage the economy? And you're here defending a total failure instead of asking him to do exactly what he was elected to do. Your principal, Buhari was elected by those who supported him so that he can fix the economy! Not to come and give us useless excuses why the economy cannot be fixed. If the economy was too bad for him to fix, then why did he contest to be president? In fact, I don't blame him. It's folks like you who would vote an unintelligent dullard like him to rule a complex nation like Nigeria that I blame! In case you are not aware, the economic recession happening in Nigeria today is almost exactly like what happened in Nigeria between 1983 - 1985 under Buhari's first regime. Go on google and search for stories on Buhari's past regime. Listen to IBB's 1985 coup speech and see all the things he mentioned as "excuses" for overthrowing Buhari to "save Nigerians". Whether he ended up saving Nigerians or not is another matter for another day, but the fact is tbat the economic reasons he mentioned were valid.

What Nigeria needs is an intelligent and sincere leader to come up with intelligent solutions to our problems, not a dullard who only knows how to give excuses why the economy is bad and can't be fixed by him!

[/s]

Revert to the question asked by the OP, and stop all this senseless childish lines.

vatiqan:




I refused to read this dumb epistle. So how are countries without oil coping; since according to this thrash you are writing; oil is the determinant decider of fx?

Deep down, u know u read it. The article is not for go everlasting unintelligent kids.
Imagine ur last dumb question and u want me to engage u?
Look for your mates, this is far way beyond u.

progress69:


Deep down, u know u read it. The article is not for go everlasting unintelligent kids.
Imagine ur last dumb question and u want me to engage u?
Look for your mates, this is far way beyond u.

If you are 40, then you are older in age. I read the very first line and understood where you were driving at. This site is not for young school leavers!

Abagworo:


I always knew from day 1 that the reason for bombing oil installations was to reduce available funds and make things difficult for Buhari Government to kick-start it's manifesto. This Government actually overcame the tactics late 2016 but is not doing enough to enlighten people about the causes of recession.

u are really stup.id

progress69:


Shut up and be sensible. Check the economy of those who depend mainly on oil, including Almighty Saudi Arabia.

So insulting me will make u sensible. Remember that it takes a wise and courageous man to admit his mistakes. it was the likes of u who put us in the mess we are today.
Economy is not about the availability of money only but the ability and the know how to harness what you have for the general good of the people. All of you accusing GEJ of corruption are now blind to the rip off going on in our Nigeria in the name of foreign exchange policy.
When u were shouting of change in 2014 those of us with foresight pleaded for caution given that the devil we knew was better than the buhari we also knew, as the leopard cannot change its spots but you refused and put us in this mess.
Thank you for all you did but let the 1.5 million man march go on for that is only what remains to be taken away from us by this regime.

Abagworo:


I think it's more like lack of wisdom on the part of our successive leaders as well as followers. A lot of attempts have been made in the past to diversify our economy but lack of patience, continuity, fluctuation in oil price and international conspiracy led to their failure.

This Buhari Presidency represents the 1st time in recent past a revisit has been made for diversification but the followers are not much aware of the need to support this attempt. Moving away from easy money comes with a little hardship and sacrifice before the aim is achieved. As a result of this economic disability our growth and downturn is determined by only one commodity which is crude oil.

You can't make tangible progress as a country without shared Unity. That was one of the basis of the question, that the WH correspondent asked Buhari about Niger Delta on his visit to the WH.
Obama himself spelt it out to Buhari, but he doesn't care, perhaps he knows it's only a matter of time as there is no basis for Unity, anyway.
Divide the Country and see the individual Nations rise.

vatiqan:



If you are 40, then you are older in age. I read the very first line and understood where you were driving at. This site is not for young school leavers!

Lol. So u are in your late 30s and u still reason like an high school leaver. U need to see a priest, man of God or whoever u worship!

Olusegun obasanjo led this country into this enormous mess.

progress69:


Lol. So u are in your late 30s and u still reason like an high school leaver. U need to see a priest, man of God or whoever u worship!

Meaning I'm more or less ur father. Poor you. Defending the indefensible even with an empty stomach?

[s]

greenmonk:


So insulting me will make u sensible. Remember that it takes a wise and courageous man to admit his mistakes. it was the likes of u who put us in the mess we are today.
Economy is not about the availability of money only but the ability and the know how to harness what you have for the general good of the people. All of you accusing GEJ of corruption are now blind to the rip off going on in our Nigeria in the name of foreign exchange policy.
When u were shouting of change in 2014 those of us with foresight pleaded for caution given that the devil we knew was better than the buhari we also knew, as the leopard cannot change its spots but you refused and put us in this mess.
Thank you for all you did but let the 1.5 million man march go on for that is only what remains to be taken away from us by this regime.

[/s]

vatiqan:



Meaning I'm more or less ur father. Poor you. Defending the indefensible even with an empty stomach?

I can never have a dumb Father. Sorry. Besides even if u are 40 u can't even my Father.

progress69:


I can never have a dumb Father. Sorry. Besides even if u are 40 u can't even my Father.

I wldnt want to talk abt that old man who is suffering in the village for the calamity (Buhari), he knew nothing abt but which his own son and his likes, brought upon him

Na wao for we countrymen,Baba promise us 1 naira to $1 but before then he wants to make it 10k naira to 1 dollar first...abeg make una chill for baba.SAI BABA!

4Play:


This narrative is such a silly cop-out. Yes, oil prices are crucial but Buhari's fixed exchange rate regime has made it economically unwise to bring in forex into Nigeria, except for remittances. This is the primary explanation for the collapse in non-oil sources of forex inflow which I noted in an earlier post:

--------
This is not true: We do not earn all our forex from crude oil exports. Remittances, capital inflow and non-oil exports contribute to forex inflows:

1) The World Bank has disclosed that Nigeria received a total of $21 billion from its citizens living abroad as home remittance in 2014 saying that growth of remittance is expected to slow this year.

Source: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/04/nigerians-living-abroad-remitted-21bn-in-2014-world-bank/

2) Represented by the Director, Development Finance of the CBN, Dr Mudashiru Olaitan, Emefiele blamed the decline of non oil revenue on the low level of loans to exporters which invariably contributed to the decline in non oil export revenue receipts from $10.53billion in 2014 to $4.39billion in 2015.

Source: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2016/01/cbn-blames-declining-non-oil-revenue-on-low-export-loans/

3) For instance, figures obtained by the National Bureau of Statistics stated that as of 2013, the country had a total investment inflow of $21.32bn (N4.2tn). This figure, according to an analysis of the report, declined to $20.72bn (N4.08tn) and $9.64bn (N1.89tn) in the 2014 and 2015 fiscal periods respectively.*

Source: http://investadvocate.com.ng/2016/03/07/investment-inflow-nigeria-drops-n2-3tn/

From the above 3, non-oil sources of forex in 2014 totalled $52bn -$21bn in remittances, $10.5bn in non-oil exports and $20.7bn in investment inflows. So all the Nigerian government needed to do was make sure the 3 non-oil sources of forex inflow continued to grow to offset the reduction in oil export income. Instead, by displaying a disinterest in setting a clear policy direction and implementing the boneheaded fixed exchange rate policy; 2) and 3) above declined very fast making things even worse than they ordinarily would have been.

---------

* Investment inflow was down to $5bn in 2016. Worst figures in 10 years. See here:[url] http://investorsking.com/investment-inflow-nigeria-drops-10-year-low/[/url]

There is absolutely nothing silly about what I explained above, I simply pointed out that the drop in oil price was the major hammer that hit Nigeria's economy followed by the almost 50% drop in oil exports due to internal sabotage. While we all agree the confusion in the exchange rate fixing policy has great effects on our recovery today, that does not necessarily change the facts about oil price / reduced export volume being the biggest hits to the economy.

To repeat what I said earlier, investors don't take their money to places where they can clearly see cash flow is drying up; even the early morning akara seller would prefer to take her wares to a richer credit worthy neighbourhood. The major reason the investors move away is still tied to the forex scarcity in the country, a scarcity which is primarily an effect of the dwindling oil industry. All the things you mentioned as being responsible for a decline in non-oil revenue are still tied to the same scarcity of forex; from the lack of loans to exporters to the lack of forex to manufacturers, to the crisis in the aviation industry which has forced international airlines to leave completely or relocate to Ghana, all these were fuelled by the lack of forex to either repatriate profits or to import raw materials and equipment.

The only non-oil forex source which you listed above which isnt directly/indirectly linked to the oil revenue is diaspora remittances, and that aspect has seen a major leap in the last 2 years due to the dying Naira.

BlackBaron:
High oil prices
Demand and supply...

The first is obvious.

Demand and supply was helped largely by the volume of fx in circulation under Jonathan. There was a lot of contracts and also a lot of hard currency exchanges via politicians which fed the bdc market. Couple that to the liberal attitude to bdc by CBN by way of high fx sales. It always managed to be in excess of supply or just about.

Fair enough, while politician hand downs are evil and were a proportion of fx inflows for bdc. Buhari obviously cracked down on this, but he's also stopped spending completely. This has left the market completely drained of fx and with demand soaring. It's getting worse.

It's ironic Mr Buhari is absolutely clueless with no alternative to limit fx scarcity also went on to limit the amount of fx inflows into the economy by limiting fx from bdc to $8000 monthly via the CBN. This absolutely meagre sum can not even scratch the surface unfortunately and so here we are with crippling economic conditions.

In all of these, I find it weird that you have not been able to see or acknowledge the fact that there was a major drop in the forex inflow into the country and that was what ultimately led to the scarcity of forex in the system. You seem to just dwell on the fact that 'Buhari restricted forex supply to the market' without acknowledging the inevitable reasons why.

Are you aware of how fast the foreign reserves were running down between November 2014 and May 2015?... The reserves dropped by $10bn from $38.5bn to $28.5bn within this period, and despite this infused $10bn, the Naira still fell in the black market to N230 because there was still short supply in the market. Meanwhile this was even in a period when oil still sold above $60. Of course when it was obvious that the drop in oil price was not going to reverse, it was inevitable to start restricting what CBN issues to people and to the market, and that was the genesis of forex restrictions.

progress69:
Clownish question.

The value of Naira is determined mainly by the price of crude.

Jonathan rode on oil tide for 3 years, with nothing to show for it, even in the reserves.

We started feeling the heat of the dropping oil prices which forced Jonathan to devalue Naira to N197 to a dollar, which was trading at N232 to in the parallel market. Bare in mind that oil prices was still as high as $70-75/barrel and Nigeria was producing oil at full capacity. 2.2 million barrels/day.

What do u expect when oil price dipped to low as $28/barrel with little reserves to defend the Naira as was done by Sanusi.

What do u expect, when militants blow up pipelines and reduce our production level to as lownas 1600 million barrels pwr day ( interestingly those that wail the much are always very happy when a bpmb goes off on crude pipe)

Bare in mind that Sanusi used about 50% of the reserves then to defend the economy and Naira, yet Naira lost over 20% of its value. Luckily for Nigeria, or let me say unfortunately for Nigeria, Oil price picked again in a short time.

Why I said unfortunately is because, if oil didn't pick up so fast then, our leaders would have been serious about DIVERSIFICATION!

The bolded line is not true, please be practical in your assertions.................................................
The price of oil plays a role but it isnt solely responsible. A simple review of the price of Oil from 1965 till 2017 along side the price of the dollar is more than enough to prove that comment wrong.

ehissi:


The bolded line is not true, please be practical in your assertions.................................................
The price of oil plays a role but it isnt solely responsible. A simple review of the price of Oil from 1965 till 2017 along side the price of the dollar is more than enough to prove that comment wrong.

I hear!

kabrud:


Pls don't hide under the cover of insult, explain ur counter opinion.

With all the information at your fingertips, if you don't understand the dynamics of currency exchange rate but prefer to scream "Buhari"!!!......The joke's on you.

ehissi:


The bolded line is not true, please be practical in your assertions.................................................
The price of oil plays a role but it isnt solely responsible. A simple review of the price of Oil from 1965 till 2017 along side the price of the dollar is more than enough to prove that comment wrong.

What are you saying?

Demand and supply determines the currency exchange rates.

What are we(Nigeria) offering the world?

What is its current value?

What is its current demand?

Information is all around you, don't limit your mental capacity just to show you hate one man.

Very STUPID question. Your oil price was high

ba7man:
What are you saying?

Demand and supply determines the currency exchange rates.

What are we(Nigeria) offering the world?

What is its current value?

What is its current demand?

Information is all around you, don't limit your mental capacity just to show you hate one man.

Hmmmmmmm............................

Mental capacity? Hate?

Read my comment again and be enlightened.


What word (s) in my comment(s) suggests hate?

And why are you so eager to make my mental capacity a topic of discussion on an online forum thread that already has a topic??


If you cannot intelligently explain why the fall in the price of Oil is solely responsible (with special emphasis on the words "Solely Responsible" ) for the decline in the value of the Naira from between #180/216 to #500/650; then why persecute my mental capacity and accuse me of hate speech?

Assuming this kind of posture in what ought to be a purely intelligent, academically enlightening debate will only make one sound like an amalgamated combination of both Lai Mohammed/Femi Adesina and Chief Oyegun put together.........

ehissi:


Hmmmmmmm............................

Mental capacity? Hate?

Read my comment again and be enlightened.


What word (s) in my comment(s) suggests hate?

And why are you so eager to make my mental capacity a topic of discussion on an online forum thread that already has a topic??


If you cannot intelligently explain why the fall in the price of Oil is solely responsible (with special emphasis on the words "Solely Responsible" ) for the decline in the value of the Naira from between #180/216 to #500/650; then why persecute my mental capacity and accuse me of hate speech?

Assuming this kind of posture in what ought to be a purely intelligent, academically enlightening debate will only make one sound like an amalgamated combination of both Lai Mohammed/Femi Adesina and Chief Oyegun put together.........

People that don't know but think they know are avoided by me.



Bye.

ba7man:
People that don't know but think they know are avoided by me.



Bye.

My bro. That is the best thing. U nor see me talk "I Hear" for en rants?. God forbid i wast my time on such people!

progress69:


My bro. That is the best thing. U nor see me talk "I Hear" for en rants?. God forbid i wast my time on such people!

their ignorance is so vast, you can't even know where to start with them.

The worst part of it is they're so vocal and proud of their shortcomings.

Its best they're left to wallow in their ignorance.

ehissi:


Hmmmmmmm............................

Mental capacity? Hate?

Read my comment again and be enlightened.


What word (s) in my comment(s) suggests hate?

And why are you so eager to make my mental capacity a topic of discussion on an online forum thread that already has a topic??


If you cannot intelligently explain why the fall in the price of Oil is solely responsible (with special emphasis on the words "Solely Responsible" ) for the decline in the value of the Naira from between #180/216 to #500/650; then why persecute my mental capacity and accuse me of hate speech?

Assuming this kind of posture in what ought to be a purely intelligent, academically enlightening debate will only make one sound like an amalgamated combination of both Lai Mohammed/Femi Adesina and Chief Oyegun put together.........

U people lie alot. Naira was devalued by GEJ to N197/$ and was already trading around 235-250 in the black market b4 he left. Oil was still above $60/barrel. Now tell.me what u expect when oil dipped as low as $28/barrel and remained so for Months coupled with reduced oil production due to the activities of terrorists in the Niger Delta. We get our FX mainly from crude. Yaradua/GEJ used about %50 of the robust reserve then to defend the Naira and economy, which was over $30bn. Ur hero ledt $1bn short of that amount in the reserves. And this is after selling oil for average of $100/barrel for close to 3 years. What happened to all the money? Where are the infrastructures to conmeserate with the depleted national reserves? He even started borrowing money to.meet "recurrent expenditure" like paying salaries way back 2014. Nigeria was already in trouble since way back 2014. The failure of oil price to pick up for over a year was just the final nail on the confin. Even Bloomberg, IMF and world bank knows oil price is the major determinant of the value our Naira cos that is our major source of our FX

When Buhari came in the oil price was around 30dollars per barrel and the exchange rate was 350. Now the crude is around 55dollars per barrel and the exchange rate is 500. it seems the more the govt makes more revenue the more the naira crashes. I am afraid that the exchange rate may reach 1,000 naira to the dollar if the price of crude gets 80 dollars per barrel