Tvegas:
How far with UACN? They returned loss during Covid from from 1.2 billion profit in 2019 to 500million loss in 2020. This company is poorly managed and not out of the woods as many assume. The unbundling is a no brainer and it would have really helped the ordinary shareholders but it seems the management have sinister motives.

I will suggest you issue a disclaimer on this stock very soon especially with their unbundling noise that have died down?

Issue what? A disclaimer to who?
we play too much in this forum.

I always liken OGG to a goalkeeper. No matter how many great stock recommendations he makes, some people will only remember the one that didn't meet their expectations.

Every single recommendation you see here is a product of hours and hours of careful analysis. Due diligence is the least effort required of anyone who looks to key-into these recommendations. it is irresponsible to blame others for your investment decisions.

Meanwhile, from what i see, UACN is not a lost cause, it still holds value for the patient ones.
Don't take my words for it, do your due dilligence

dinyelutochukwu:


Issue what? A disclaimer to who?
we play too much in this forum.

I always liken OGG to a goalkeeper. No matter how many great stock recommendations he makes, some people will only remember the one that didn't meet their expectations.

Every single recommendation you see here is a product of hours and hours of careful analysis. Due diligence is the least effort required of anyone who looks to key-into these recommendations. it is irresponsible to blame others for your investment decisions.

Meanwhile, from what i see, UACN is not a lost cause, it still holds value for the patient ones.
Don't take my words for it, do your due dilligence

Exactly my own viewpoint.
Issue disclaimer to an adult that has control of his fund? This is like someone going to buy a car recommended by a friend without carrying his own due diligence. After committing the avoidable error of judgement, he turns around and start blaming others.

OGG commits so much to research without being paid. Why should someone trade blame when unexpected happen?
No one can accurately predict the price movement of any stock all the time but if someone analysis consistently records 80% success, kudos should be given.

dinyelutochukwu:


Issue what? A disclaimer to who?
we play too much in this forum.

Ehuatamuigunisi:

Issue disclaimer to an adult that has control of his fund?

I guess my point is wrongly interpreted , Contrary to what you guys may think I follow OGGs post regularly. I also use his posts to benchmark some of my stock picks.

Previously he had written and I quote that " Has the appreciation in Neimeth happened so shall Wapco and UACN rise" . Wapco has obviously turned the corner, while UACN obviously hasn't turned the corner. He is probably an analyst hence my advice to him to prepare a disclaimer if things continue to go south.

The man has stuck to his gun which is commendable. So guys you need to really calm down . No one is condemning OGG for what he has called right or what he has called wrong. Critical reasoning and conversations is part of me.

People are using comments on this page to invest millions so every critical argument should be accommodated. I appreciate intelligent conversations but not hero worship.

ogg's predictions are 40% correct and 60% wrong.Take it or leave it.

BrokerHaruna:


We warned that danger looms on Nigerian banks. The poor economy is constraining them while the CBN's erratic and irrational policies are suffocating them, destroying values as fallouts. To give an idea of the extent of the crisis, Zenith bank has limited use of their debit cards to maximum $200 per month! The crisis is serious.

You are even lucky in Nigeria, for example, in Pakistan and Lebanon, you have restrictions on the dollars in your dorm account. Imagine someone telling you how you can spend the dollars you source for and deposited in your bank account and many other countries have such restrictions as well but in Nigeria, you still have unlimited restrictions on the wired dollars in your dollar account. I hope our situation won’t get worse to that of other countries.

onegentleguy:

Hope folks have seeing the fantastic result from FIDSON.
Triple digit % rise in NET INCOME. ...with other key revenue and earnings line also showing a remarkable improvement QoQ and YoY.

I have since said that all health coys are at this time, anti-fragile.
https://www.booksie.com/618814-alarm-bell-in-nigeria-between-fear-risk-and-opportunity-

...HOLD !!

Am not surprised at all that the result is fantastic. I wouldn't be surprised if they suppass GSK when they declare final dividend FY 2020.

It's trading well below it's fair value of #6.

Like I also said in my previous posts about the coy, it's on a recovery part to profitability (growth stock). A good stock to hold for the medium to long term.

Tvegas:

I feel the profitability potential of the healthcare stocks are overrated as far as the Covid19 lockdown is concerned. I also dont see any special gain they might have made from the lockdown . The number of patients being treated for Coronavirus are too minimal to command any major profit for them. Hope we also know that every Nigerian has turned to producers of sanitizers and face masks?

Furthermore, i dont think any Nigerian firm has the gut at the moment to research a vacinne or cure for Coronavirus like Gilead Sciences in the USA is doing, that would have been the money spinner. A favorable government policy towards importation of drugs can also wipe out any potential profit that accrue to that sector. If you think that is not possible think again as we have a clueless government in place for now. All they need is IMF threatening them and they will open the border.

Above is my post about the Health sector performance in relation to the Covid19 Lockdown in March when there was so much bullish talk about the sector. Fidson has dropped a good result in Half year 2020 , while GSK results was very flat.

For now, I will attribute any good result from that sector to individual company positioning, strategy and performance . But the idea that the entire sector is the biggest beneficiary from the Lockdown should be reconsidered.

RabbiDoracle:


Guinness has become an oil servicing company. It is digging for oil. Let's hope they find Oil in August.

Digging for oil with seplat

naturalflow:
ogg's predictions are 40% correct and 60% wrong.Take it or leave it.

That's huge and still cool,as long as you make more money from the 40% and lose less from the 60%, you are still bound to break even

Tvegas:
I guess my point is wrongly interpreted , Contrary to what you guys may think I follow OGGs post regularly. I also use his posts to benchmark some of my stock picks.

Previously he had written and I quote that " Has the appreciation in Neimeth happened so shall Wapco and UACN rise" . Wapco has obviously turned the corner, while UACN obviously hasn't turned the corner. He is probably an analyst hence my advice to him to prepare a disclaimer if things continue to go south.

The man has stuck to his gun which is commendable. So guys you need to really calm down . No one is condemning OGG for what he has called right or what he has called wrong. Critical reasoning and conversations is part of me.

People are using comments on this page to invest millions so every critical argument should be accommodated. I appreciate intelligent conversations but not hero worship.

Tvegas, you did well to clarify your earlier assertion, but your closing line was distasteful.
While OGG remains a hero to myself and a host of others here, we don't hero worship him. There is absolutely no need to.

That said, let me paint a scenerio of why we always advise due diligence.
OGG had recommended a BUY/HOLD on WAPCO, a smart investor will look to carry out due diligence to confirm
1. The value of reward he has spotted in this stock?
2. What time frame he is looking at (Long/Short term) to cash out on this reward.
3. What are the risks associated with this reward. (even roses have thorns )

Now, if you go into WAPCO with a short term mindset, you may be disappointed because the rewards are in the mid term.

A lot of folks in this forum have short term mindsets, that's not a bad thing though (I am even guilty of it sometimes) but you're likely to get burnt more often.
The rise witnessed in WAPCO this week is just as a result of it's fine Q2 result.
Yes, WAPCO may have turned a corner, but the real reward still lies ahead.

Tvegas:
Above is my post about the Health sector performance in relation to the Covid19 Lockdown in March when there was so much bullish talk about the sector. Fidson has dropped a good result in Half year 2020 , while GSK results was very flat.

For now, I will attribute any good result from that sector to individual company positioning, strategy and performance . But the idea that the entire sector is the biggest beneficiary from the Lockdown should be reconsidered.

I did my DD on Fidson before I started posting about them here.

Fidson has 2 major source of revenue OTC (Over The Counter) and Ethics prescription.

Since the outbreak of the covid, their Ethics prescription arm has enjoyed greater patronage especially their Intravenous fluid products. So as long as this pandemic is on, revenue will keep going up.

Other factors also play in their profitability which I will not repeat because I have already posted earlier.

Like I always say in my coy posts, this is not a buy recommendation.

onegentleguy:

Inference:
Unless u are a perfect trader with absolute control of their emotion(fear-greed factor in view), it'll be best to stay off most US-exchange coys
!

Whichever way you Slice or dice it, US market is a market where if you get your strategy right (either speculation or investing) you will be laughing to the bank.

It’s a market where you can be earning monthly cash flow from dividend. Also, enjoy robust and unprecedented capital appreciation on certain stocks with good strike.

The case of Kodak is a normal occurrence in the us market where investors react positively or negatively to a stock depending on the type of news about the stock. A clear indication that the market is efficient.

dinyelutochukwu:

Tvegas, you did well to clarify your earlier assertion, but your closing line was distasteful.
While OGG remains a hero to myself and a host of others here, we don't hero worship him. There is absolutely no need to.

No problem Baba your point is well noted. I don't just want us to get to that point where analysis of the gurus here cannot be questioned. Sorry if you find the portion in bold distasteful.

Valueinvestor:

That's huge and still cool,as long as you make more money from the 40% and lose less from the 60%, you are still bound to break even

the problem then lies on which will spoil the whole ticket.

naturalflow:
the problem then lies on which will spoil the whole ticket.

That's why you cut your losses short once the stock no longer aligns with your expectation as regards fundamentals

Coolcash1:


Whichever way you Slice or dice it, US market is a market where if you get your strategy right (either speculation or investing) you will be laughing to the bank.

It’s a market where you can be earning monthly cash flow from dividend. Also, enjoy robust and unprecedented capital appreciation on certain stocks with good strike.

The case of Kodak is a normal occurrence in the us market where investors react positively or negatively to a stock depending on the type of news about the stock. A clear indication that the market is efficient.

If I may ask, is there any naija stockbroker with online trading platform that provides access to trade in US stocks?

Valueinvestor:

That's why you cut your losses short once the stock no longer aligns with your expectation as regards fundamentals

I agree with you, 40% win rate (assuming this is correct) is not bad if u make more in ur winning trades. Plus some of OGGs analysis and predictions require time to manifest. Dat is why some people don't like fundamentals because it is slower, sometimes it can take a few years to finally come true.

My opinion sha.

ositadima1:


I agree with you, 40% win rate (assuming this is correct) is not bad if u make more in ur winning trades. Plus some of OGGs analysis and predictions require time to manifest. Dat is why some people don't like fundamentals because it is slower, sometimes it can take a few years to finally come true.

My opinion sha.

Actually what you said is correct

onegentleguy:


...No bro.
But Champion breweries is cool @ the current mkt price.

Is it REDSTAREX? I think current price holds value.

ositadima1:


I agree with you, 40% win rate (assuming this is correct) is not bad if u make more in ur winning trades. Plus some of OGGs analysis and predictions require time to manifest. Dat is why some people don't like fundamentals because it is slower, sometimes it can take a few years to finally come true.

My opinion sha.

Exactly my point. e.g
Neimeth took months, but it delivered upwards of 500%.

onegentleguy:
The share price of KODAK(NYSE: KODK) rose by as much as 2,189% in just 2 trading days(Tuesday and Wednesday) following a surge in price since the week began.(over 2440% rise)

And yes, it actually did happen !! ...as the stock rose from a band of $7 to $58 at some point.

Why?
There was a news that the coy was awarded a $765 million act loan to produce generic drug ingredients for the fight against Covid-19. ...including hydroxychloroquine.(a drug substance touted as a plausible panacea to the virus)
...just that !!

So I took a close look at the company's financials to see if indeed the run was worth it.
Analysis;

• In the 1st 3 months of 2020, the coy reported an over $110M loss in NET INCOME with revenue dropping by above 1,000bps.
• Elsewhere, several key revenue and earnings lines were pressured downwards with some printing in the negative. ...EM/EPS, ROAE, ROAA, RoIC, AER and CGPR in view.
Infact the last 2 lines showed clear signs of a likely distressed asset.
• The coys cost line consistently grew faster than earnings margin QoQ over the last 7 quarters.
• The company is embroiled in huge debt, a large chunk of which will be due for repayment by Q3/Q4 2021. ...with BS also riddled with a relatively high level of funding mismatches.
• With a negative OCF, the coys CBR(cash burn rate) currently stands @ over $8M per month.
...the interpretation of this is that the company could become bankrupt if that burn runs for another 21 months.(bite on cash reserve in view) The coys ALTMAN-Z SCORE also lends a strong credence to this.

...and so for a company with a history of below par operational performance, poor management and cooperate governance framework, one wonders if such a surge in price was justified and if the company is indeed the best fit for such an award.
Quite frankly, there should've been a better choice than KODAK !!

Essence of this post?
Most assets in the US are not just overpriced but have gotten to a point where the combination of asset pricing and the quest for value has been completely replaced by RISK.(negative RR/reward in view)

Inference:
Unless u are a perfect trader with absolute control of their emotion(fear-greed factor in view), it'll be best to stay off most US-exchange coys.
Even then, u still need to thread very carefully, because no one is perfect.
"When it rains, it'll most likely pour."
For the most part, its now a speculators market.
Remember;
"The danger with SPECULATING in the stock market is that it is an adversary to any clear Investing STRATEGY.
...often times, 'it is neither here nor there'
With 90% of the act, it is just like attempting to invent an idea that is already obsolete."
~Sinclair

"When a company within the stock market wants to quickly dispose of a 'building without a foundation', it auctions it to a SPECULATOR.
An INVESTOR stays far away... a TRADER watches on... but it is the SPECULATOR who eventually buys the auction."
~Sinclair

...CAUTION !!

Lol, bro US is where the money is na... don’t you want people to enjoy from Powell’s printing? God bless America

Tvegas:
No problem Baba your point is well noted. I don't just want us to get to that point where analysis of the gurus here cannot be questioned. Sorry if you find the portion in bold distasteful.

You have earned my respect.
Nobody wins when the family feuds.

onegentleguy:


There's always a caveat attached to my analysis and views.
...nothing is subjective.

That said, UACN still retains a good measure of valua(risk-reward margin in view) and remains a HOLD for us !!
Anyone who thinks otherwise is very free to put out their stakes for sale and exit.

As for the unbundling, yes the noise needed to die down so it can happen when u least expect !! ...that's the way "things like that play themselves out in the NSE room."
Trust u still remember the past cases of the drive for value in IBPLC, FIDSON, BETA GLASS etc... and more recently DANGOTE FLOUR, DIAMOND BANK, NEWREST ASL, WEMA, MAY&BAKER, NEIMETH and many others.
I kept screaming here that there was an immense value proposition in them, but some folks doubted, until the time of reckoning came. ...then lamentations became their other name !!

Only TIME can set matters straight.
...enough said.

...Abeg make una no start any e-fight oo !!
This life is sweet but also too short to overflog matters of this sort.

Like I said; UACN still HOLDS a great prospect.
Yes there was a setback in Q2, but overall, the coys feasible REWARD margin is still well ahead of surrounding RISK.
I peruse through the coys Q2 FP again, and I can say the same thing again and again.

@dinyelutochukwu, Ehuatamuigunisi, Valuainvestor, ositadima1, Mcy56 and others, I thank u for ur view and support !!
@Tvegas, thanks for ur view. Trust u read my post above. ...particularly the part in bold.
@naturalflow, I thank u for the sarcasm. knowing u, I honestly didn't expect any less. ...u are only being u !!
@Chalsniper abeg I also thank u in advance. ...I hope u don't start off any e-fight.

Pls, let's all put the UACN matter to rest and allow time to adjudge whether those in, can reap VALUE.
TIME, they say, has the best natural remedy to set matters straight and put them in their right perspective.


Regards

Coolcash1:


Whichever way you Slice or dice it, US market is a market where if you get your strategy right (either speculation or investing) you will be laughing to the bank.

It’s a market where you can be earning monthly cash flow from dividend. Also, enjoy robust and unprecedented capital appreciation on certain stocks with good strike.

The case of Kodak is a normal occurrence in the us market where investors react positively or negatively to a stock depending on the type of news about the stock. A clear indication that the market is efficient.

If it’s Nigeria, a company would release good news and even go down further

ojeysky:


If I may ask, is there any naija stockbroker with online trading platform that provides access to trade in US stocks?

You can use trading 212

Some posts are making me somehow afraid now........me that doesn't even consult any Oracle or use any candle to post my amateur's opinions.
Waiting for the day Nsempas will reason the matter and deal accordingly. Lol.

dinyelutochukwu:
A lot of folks in this forum have short term mindsets, that's not a bad thing though (I am even guilty of it sometimes) but you're likely to get burnt more often.
The rise witnessed in WAPCO this week is just as a result of it's fine Q2 result.
Yes, WAPCO may have turned a corner, but the real reward still lies ahead.

ositadima1:
Plus some of OGGs analysis and predictions require time to manifest. Dat is why some people don't like fundamentals because it is slower, sometimes it can take a few years to finally come true.

I strongly agree with these statements and I think it summarizes issues with predictions to a large extent.
It reminds me of Currentprice's prediction of Vitafoam and Dangflour, two out of the many predictions.
I may not remember clearly cos I'm typing off-hand, but will still say it.
He predicted Vitafoam to reach N5, and long after that, Vitafoam was doing marabouts around N3 or so........but by the time it took off, the first bus stop was N4......then N5+........another prediction around 8 came thereafter and it's yet to get there.
With the way Vitafoam is delivering, it's just a matter of time for the prediction to come true.
Nsempas always have short term focus. Once there's a prediction they jump in, only to be disappointed when it doesn't manifest quickly.
It's true few 'may not' come true because some things may have happened along the way but I think we should still appreciate people going out of their way to research and post it freely here.....
Funny enough, very few will come out to appreciate the ogas when the prediction comes true and they make good profits from it.
It's well.

Tvegas:
No problem Baba your point is well noted. I don't just want us to get to that point where analysis of the gurus here cannot be questioned. Sorry if you find the portion in bold distasteful.

You spoke my mind

Tvegas:
No problem Baba your point is well noted. I don't just want us to get to that point where analysis of the gurus here cannot be questioned. Sorry if you find the portion in bold distasteful.

You've spoken well.
....but you know there are ways someone will question the analysis and it will look like an atta.ck and there are ways it will be done and it helps to be able to sieve the info, learn and get it right too.
I do not support the phrase "hero worship" as well.
If you deliver food to my table thru your research, analysis and predictions, you'll definitely earn my respect.......doesn't mean I'm worshiping you.
You would have seen the way people were/are asking after Currentprice, it's because he's doing something great and people are missing him too......to me, that does not translate to worship but great respect and admiration for him. Only GOD should be worshipped.
So also OGG, oga Oracle and other gurus who are invaluable to the forum.
Na my own be that. Make I stop there.

Tvegas:
Lockdown in March when there was so much bullish talk about the sector. Fidson has dropped a good result in Half year 2020 , while GSK results was very flat.

GSK is yet to release result.........or maybe I missed the post.

naturalflow:
ogg's predictions are 40% correct and 60% wrong.Take it or leave it.

The best of men are men at the very best.

So how much does he get paid for the 40 percent right predictions?

How many percent predictions of a paid financial analyst do you feel will be right?

I like when people criticise the gurus in the house constructively to make everyone better but not destructive criticism that abuses their goodwill.

NB: i dont own UACN shares neither did i buy neimeth.

Whatever you take from this forum depends on your investment horizon and your due diligence.. few pages back, i responded to Ogg's analysis on ETI, clearly he identified a good stock but of course i made a little research on the said stock based on my model for investment (not the right fit). I quickly move my search elsewhere.. we joked about it and that was it.

No need to take things personsl here.. we all have one common goal (To make money) using different criteria e.g. RabbiDoracle, Meships, fxuser, bullbear, loco etc.

I'm a learner too..