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Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts - Investment (7392) - Nairaland

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Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mpeace(m): 10:52am On Dec 01, 2023
Locotrader:
Good morning folks.
Transcorp is planning to separate the power subsidiary .How true is this news and what is the effect on share price?
Positive or negative?
But how reliable is your source. Cos I think this is what transcorp has been missing
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Zegra: 10:54am On Dec 01, 2023
yMcy56:

grin grin
Reminds me of @Deepsuk grin

Deepsuk reincarnated grin grin grin

2 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Locotrader(m): 10:59am On Dec 01, 2023
Mpeace:
But how reliable is your source. Cos I think this is what transcorp has been missing

A broker told me.He said the news is at the floor already.We also have insiders here.This is the reason I brought it up here.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by beejay1(m): 11:06am On Dec 01, 2023
During an interview early this year, Tony said it would happen, but in like 5 years time. That interview happened during the period when Ote$ tried to launch a hostile takeover. So not sure it is something that will happen now.

4 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Locotrader(m): 11:19am On Dec 01, 2023
beejay1:
During an interview early this year, Tony said it would happen, but in like 5 years time. That interview happened during the period when Ote$ tried to launch a hostile takeover. So not sure it is something that will happen now.

Apart from this, accumulation is ongoing for some days now and gradual rise in price day by day.
Someone said Tony wrote to the sec for additional stakes in Transcorp.Another news about the unbindling of the power unit.one needs to be guided accordingly before Making any decision.

3 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Boshins: 11:30am On Dec 01, 2023
Locotrader:


You must have a reason.can you explain?
Or just a recommendation?
unbundling news... I believe the market will react positively to this news... Apart from this, something cool is coming from d stable of Transcorp...... cool
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Locotrader(m): 11:34am On Dec 01, 2023
Boshins:
unbundling news... I believe the market will react positively to this news...

Okay, make I pick tasere units like I did in oando.
I will be much interested if them go list the power arm
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Locotrader(m): 11:37am On Dec 01, 2023
Oando just hit 12 now.
Watching for stocks to do Jijo.
December is here.
Man pikin need awoof money now

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by yMcy56(f): 11:40am On Dec 01, 2023
UNITY
Touched 1.31 earlier.....
Reversed up and currently sighted @1.53......
Now full bid @1.54!

I knowingly didn't mention it when it started moving up, so they won't say it's the post that made Nsempas to go and buy it..... smiley

2 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Princkez: 11:42am On Dec 01, 2023
yMcy56:
UNITY
Touched 1.31 earlier.....
Reversed up and currently sighted @1.53......
on full bid @1.54

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Zegra: 11:43am On Dec 01, 2023
Locotrader:
Oando just hit 12 now.
Watching for stocks to do Jijo.
December is here.
Man pikin need awoof money now

We no longer hear about MULTIVERSE anymore undecided undecided undecided undecided undecided grin grin grin grin grin

7 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmasoft(m): 12:01pm On Dec 01, 2023
Locotrader:
Good morning folks.
Transcorp is planning to separate the power subsidiary .How true is this news and what is the effect on share price?
Positive or negative?

Both!

Good news if the separation is like Afriprud, ucap and afriland was unbundled from UBA

Bad news if it's separated the way Transcorp Hotel was separated from Transcorp

2 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 12:18pm On Dec 01, 2023
Locotrader:
Oando just hit 12 now.
Watching for stocks to do Jijo.
December is here.
Man pikin need awoof money now

This Oando is just like what Yoruba people call ''oja okukun'' i.e. underworld market or black market. The more you look, the less you see!
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 12:38pm On Dec 01, 2023
yMcy56:
SEPLAT @2,320!
Anybody wey get this one, na to hold am tight...
It's getting out of reach of common man.... smiley

Accumulation has been going on in JAIZ @1.55/1.60 for a long time now.......when will they allow this bank to move?

Mpeace smiling sheepishly rightnow grin grin grin

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Ginalex(f): 12:40pm On Dec 01, 2023
yMcy56:
UNITY
Touched 1.31 earlier.....
Reversed up and currently sighted @1.53......
Now full bid @1.54!

I knowingly didn't mention it when it started moving up, so they won't say it's the post that made Nsempas to go and buy it..... smiley
cheesy wink they should not tag one of mentors a MH biko. I grabbed some when it deeped funny enough smiley

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by yMcy56(f): 12:48pm On Dec 01, 2023
DANGCEM
Heavy cross deals @320.......
E be like say dey wan move this Dangcem again o.

JAIZ: Insider activities and loading @1.50....

OANDO: Quite some activities @11.80.......

SUGAR/SALT: Quite some activities here.....

FBNH: 31M bids Vs. 2M offers..........with over 18M bids at 22 and above......

3 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by yMcy56(f): 12:51pm On Dec 01, 2023
PETERiCHY:
Mpeace smiling sheepishly rightnow grin grin grin
Lol. Peter so you end up not having this SEPLAT?
Can remember you were waiting for it @150 that time..... grin
Mpeace don hammer, my Christmas hamper don set. lipsrsealed grin
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mpeace(m): 1:13pm On Dec 01, 2023
yMcy56:

Lol. Peter so you end up not having this SEPLAT?
Can remember you were waiting for it @150 that time..... grin
Mpeace don hammer, my Christmas hamper don set. lipsrsealed grin
Lol. I remember the day you help us move this Seplat.
Its not done going up yet.
All na paper profit for now.
Once we reach the peak, may we be wise enough to drop off.

3 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mpeace(m): 1:14pm On Dec 01, 2023
PETERiCHY:


Mpeace smiling sheepishly rightnow grin grin grin
This one na big stone wey resemble accolade.

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by yMcy56(f): 1:22pm On Dec 01, 2023
Mpeace:
This one na big stone wey resemble accolade.
Lol. I don't think it's stone, na jealousy..... grin
Peter saw the opportunity but didn't make use of it.
Think he was happy for you anyway.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 3:19pm On Dec 01, 2023
kalkah:
@AJ8, Kindly explain the calculation. I want to learn. Thanks


My Common Sense entry point :
Buy if price of stock is well below 80% of 4xEPS FY estimates to guarantee at least above 20% gain in the investment . The 4x EPS FY will become your target price and the range if still strong could be 4xEPS-5x EPS. provided the company has good Dividend payment history within the sector. If the Dividend payment is very poor, aim at 75% 0f 4xEPS as target price meaning you would have to enter even lower ( that’s at least below 80% of this target). Review targets as new EPS come in. Use only EPS that’s organic ( I.e based on pure corporate sweat).

REMEMBER TO INJECT DUE DILIGENCE IN EVERY PICK ESPECIALLY WHEN CURRENT PRICE IS ABOVE 4 X EPS.

Consider these hypothetical examples below:

1. A company released Q2 half year results at say N5.5 but is currently sell at N18.00 . Dividend payment is adjudged good. My target would be N44 and range N44-N55. I would buy.
2. A company with a full year results EPS of N1.05 currently selling at N1.00 should rally quickly to N4.00 if with good or improving fundamentals . I would buy and target exit at N4.00 except new EPS suggest otherwise.

3. A company with current price at N60.00 but EPS of N2.00 is not a buy for me as 4x EPS is only N8.00 . It remained however good for those who bought it earlier at less than N8.00 .

REMEMBER all strategies were derived at a point in time. This works for me and keeps my losses to a minimum.

9 Likes 1 Share

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 3:23pm On Dec 01, 2023
700k in the bag, I told you say na sure. I don dey rub shoulders with Oga loco o small small o. Be like say nah dis kind package I go dey run hense fourth. Omo, nah 3 bottles I just dey use dey step down with friends. grin grin grin

Back to my hole, I no need to shout o. No need sef.

8 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 5:03pm On Dec 01, 2023
aj8:



My Common Sense entry point :
Buy if price of stock is well below 80% of 4xEPS FY estimates to guarantee at least above 20% gain in the investment . The 4x EPS FY will become your target price and the range if still strong could be 4xEPS-5x EPS. provided the company has good Dividend payment history within the sector. If the Dividend payment is very poor, aim at 75% 0f 4xEPS as target price meaning you would have to enter even lower ( that’s at least below 80% of this target). Review targets as new EPS come in. Use only EPS that’s organic ( I.e based on pure corporate sweat).

REMEMBER TO INJECT DUE DILIGENCE IN EVERY PICK ESPECIALLY WHEN CURRENT PRICE IS ABOVE 4 X EPS.

Consider these hypothetical examples below:

1. A company released Q2 half year results at say N5.5 but is currently sell at N18.00 . Dividend payment is adjudged good. My target would be N44 and range N44-N55. I would buy.
2. A company with a full year results EPS of N1.05 currently selling at N1.00 should rally quickly to N4.00 if with good or improving fundamentals . I would buy and target exit at N4.00 except new EPS suggest otherwise.

3. A company with current price at N60.00 but EPS of N2.00 is not a buy for me as 4x EPS is only N8.00 . It remained however good for those who bought it earlier at less than N8.00 .

REMEMBER all strategies were derived at a point in time. This works for me and keeps my losses to a minimum.
.

Hello Chief

what would you term a good dividend payment history?
is it only in term of amount? or it is in terms of % of EPS or in terms of comparision to peers in same industry? or in term of years of unbroken payments? or in term of growth to the dividend being paid?

would appreciate if you share

2 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmanuelewumi(m): 5:58pm On Dec 01, 2023
ositadima1:
700k in the bag, I told you say na sure. I don dey rub shoulders with Oga loco o small small o. Be like say nah dis kind package I go dey run hense fourth. Omo, nah 3 bottles I just dey use dey step down with friends. grin grin grin

Back to my hole, I no need to shout o. No need sef.


Reason why some people who are sure of their tools can afford to take leverage in order to harness opportunities in the market

3 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by kalkah: 7:04pm On Dec 01, 2023
Good dividends are mostly in terms of unbroken dividend payment for at least 5 years. Some analyst believe if a company cannot pay the dividend then the fundamentals is not good except for companies categorized as growth company.

AJ8 will still reply. This is a student response.
quote author=robobo post=127264615].

Hello Chief

what would you term a good dividend payment history?
is it only in term of amount? or it is in terms of % of EPS or in terms of comparision to peers in same industry? or in term of years of unbroken payments? or in term of growth to the dividend being paid?

would appreciate if you share
[/quote]

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 7:04pm On Dec 01, 2023
robobo:
.

Hello Chief

what would you term a good dividend payment history?
is it only in terms of amount? or it is in terms of % of EPS or terms of comparison to peers in the same industry? or in terms of years of unbroken payments? or in terms of growth to the dividend being paid?

would appreciate if you share

The average of the last 2 dividends x 10 comes very close to the peak price before the declaration of new dividends in anticipation that the new year's end should at least meet the previous year’s yield if the EPS has been surpassed or met. This is true for most of the banks that average a yield of 10% assuming the shares were bought just before the declaration at the peak price before declaration. That price should climb after the declaration to reflect the yield and prospects of the stock. For example, Zenith Bank pays about N3.50 on average which x 10 gives say N35.00. This price would hover about this price till new prospects emerge, then the climb. Notice also the price matches the last organic EPS x 4 ( adjust without the variations induced by the foreign exchange valuations). Same for UBA, GTCO, etc. You can cross-check, and notice they would roughly come within a Neighboring range of x4 eps-x5 eps or x10 dividends. The companies however with huge FDI yields average about 5% so best to use dividends x 20 approximately…. e.g. Breweries, Oil and gas, conglomerates, MTN, Airtel, etc. I only buy these stocks for price appreciation once the price shows it’s well below a price commensurate with a 5% yield e.g. NB at current price and sell off once it attains dividends x20. Holding such a stock till dividends would mean you have settled for a yield of about 5%.

In other words to put it simply… if sentiments anticipate a 5% yield meaning that those invested in the stock are happy with a 5% yield, then the price would reflect 5% but the earliest investors probably got the stocks at a premium. earning far more than the new investors e.g. Seplat. , NB, Guinness, etc. since they bought at prices far much lower in the past.

So check the average yield in the sector. That should help. But 10% for banks. (EPS X4 or dividends x 10 most times reflects the target price before new EPS or dividends) .

Would be happy to apply the calculations on the next report of a company with a good yield so you appreciate it better.

Hope this clarifies it a bit better.

6 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 7:16pm On Dec 01, 2023
kalkah:
Good dividends are mostly in terms of unbroken dividend payment for at least 5 years. Some analyst believe if a company cannot pay the dividend then the fundamentals is not good except for companies categorized as growth company.

AJ8 will still reply. This is a student response.
quote author=robobo post=127264615].

Hello Chief

what would you term a good dividend payment history?
is it only in term of amount? or it is in terms of % of EPS or in terms of comparision to peers in same industry? or in term of years of unbroken payments? or in term of growth to the dividend being paid?

would appreciate if you share


For growth stocks I use eps x4 as target. I buy only when the price is significantly below this. However I calculate the estimated FY eps on the best quarter x 4 . E.g TIP . Buying only if the future looks bright.

3 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by pizapato(m): 9:27pm On Dec 01, 2023
aj8:


The average of the last 2 dividends x 10 comes very close to the peak price before the declaration of new dividends in anticipation that the new year's end should at least meet the previous year’s yield if the EPS has been surpassed or met. This is true for most of the banks that average a yield of 10% assuming the shares were bought just before the declaration at the peak price before declaration. That price should climb after the declaration to reflect the yield and prospects of the stock. For example, Zenith Bank pays about N3.50 on average which x 10 gives say N35.00. This price would hover about this price till new prospects emerge, then the climb. Notice also the price matches the last organic EPS x 4 ( adjust without the variations induced by the foreign exchange valuations). Same for UBA, GTCO, etc. You can cross-check, and notice they would roughly come within a Neighboring range of x4 eps-x5 eps or x10 dividends. The companies however with huge FDI yields average about 5% so best to use dividends x 20 approximately…. e.g. Breweries, Oil and gas, conglomerates, MTN, Airtel, etc. I only buy these stocks for price appreciation once the price shows it’s well below a price commensurate with a 5% yield e.g. NB at current price and sell off once it attains dividends x20. Holding such a stock till dividends would mean you have settled for a yield of about 5%.

In other words to put it simply… if sentiments anticipate a 5% yield meaning that those invested in the stock are happy with a 5% yield, then the price would reflect 5% but the earliest investors probably got the stocks at a premium. earning far more than the new investors e.g. Seplat. , NB, Guinness, etc. since they bought at prices far much lower in the past.

So check the average yield in the sector. That should help. But 10% for banks. (EPS X4 or dividends x 10 most times reflects the target price before new EPS or dividends) .

Would be happy to apply the calculations on the next report of a company with a good yield so you appreciate it better.

Hope this clarifies it a bit better.

Thanks for sharing a loads of knowledgeable information 🙏
This makes a lot of sense and will be useful for those of us still learning the ropes

3 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by dominic17: 9:31pm On Dec 01, 2023
We have taken 100% profit and move on
Zegra:


We no longer hear about MULTIVERSE anymore undecided undecided undecided undecided undecided grin grin grin grin grin

5 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmanuelewumi(m): 4:50am On Dec 02, 2023
aj8:


The average of the last 2 dividends x 10 comes very close to the peak price before the declaration of new dividends in anticipation that the new year's end should at least meet the previous year’s yield if the EPS has been surpassed or met. This is true for most of the banks that average a yield of 10% assuming the shares were bought just before the declaration at the peak price before declaration. That price should climb after the declaration to reflect the yield and prospects of the stock. For example, Zenith Bank pays about N3.50 on average which x 10 gives say N35.00. This price would hover about this price till new prospects emerge, then the climb. Notice also the price matches the last organic EPS x 4 ( adjust without the variations induced by the foreign exchange valuations). Same for UBA, GTCO, etc. You can cross-check, and notice they would roughly come within a Neighboring range of x4 eps-x5 eps or x10 dividends. The companies however with huge FDI yields average about 5% so best to use dividends x 20 approximately…. e.g. Breweries, Oil and gas, conglomerates, MTN, Airtel, etc. I only buy these stocks for price appreciation once the price shows it’s well below a price commensurate with a 5% yield e.g. NB at current price and sell off once it attains dividends x20. Holding such a stock till dividends would mean you have settled for a yield of about 5%.

In other words to put it simply… if sentiments anticipate a 5% yield meaning that those invested in the stock are happy with a 5% yield, then the price would reflect 5% but the earliest investors probably got the stocks at a premium. earning far more than the new investors e.g. Seplat. , NB, Guinness, etc. since they bought at prices far much lower in the past.

So check the average yield in the sector. That should help. But 10% for banks. (EPS X4 or dividends x 10 most times reflects the target price before new EPS or dividends) .

Would be happy to apply the calculations on the next report of a company with a good yield so you appreciate it better.

Hope this clarifies it a bit better.



Very good, but you might miss some growth stocks that currently have a low dividend yield.


Just focus on a minimum total return of 20% and above.

Dividend yield plus 5 years compounded annualized earning growth.


United Capital current dividend yield should be about 9% plus 5 years compound annualized earning growth of about 18%. That should give you a total return of about 27%.


Although you still need to consider the profit margin, economic value added ie the spread between the ROCE and WACC multiplied by the capital employed, cash value added ie spread between the CFROI and WACC multiplied by capital employed.


I use 20% as my WACC for stocks on NGX

2 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:10am On Dec 02, 2023
Based on current plans and progress, Ellah Lakes Plc is anticipated to commence revenue generation in 2025. Their 2,400 hectare oil palm plantation in Edo State is projected to commence oil production in 2024, and their cassava processing plant is also anticipated to be operational in 2024. Upon the operationalization of these facilities, Ellah Lakes will be able to begin selling their products and generating revenue.

Its total equity stands at 19.9 billion naira as at the end of July 2023, which has been increasing, primarily owing to land appreciation. The group has been incurring an average of 900 million naira annually to run the farm and business. I estimate that they will expend a total of approximately 2 billion naira before commencing revenue generation in 2025. This amount will be covered by land appreciation.

ELLAHLAKES possesses 5,000 hectares of land, with 2,100 hectares currently planted, while OKOMUOIL owns over 32,000 hectares of land, with 19,000 hectares planted.

Below is a simplified back-of-the-envelope calculation of what may be anticipated from ELLAHLAKES in 2025:

*Currently, OKOMUOIL generates 16.2 billion naira in profit after tax (PAT) from their 19,000 hectares.

*I project ELLAHLAKES to generate 1.8 billion naira in PAT from their 2,100 hectares proportionally.

*Assuming reduced efficiency due to ELLAHLAKES being relatively new, 0.8 x 1.8 billion naira = 1.44 billion naira in PAT.

*Earnings per share (EPS) of 1.44 billion naira / 2 = 0.72 naira.

*At the current price of 3.13 naira per share, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio should be 4.34 compared to 14 for OKOMUOIL.

*Estimated dividend yield of (0.72 naira / 3.13 naira) x .8 = 16%.

Conclusion: If all goes well, purchasing it now or at a lower price, if feasible, would be akin to purchasing UCAP in 2020, lol.

Additionally, I have observed increased interest in the stock in the last 3 months. A stock that previously traded below 10 million naira in a month is now trading 300 million and 190 million naira monthly.

grin grin grin

13 Likes 1 Share

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmanuelewumi(m): 9:47am On Dec 02, 2023
ositadima1:
Based on current plans and progress, Ellah Lakes Plc is anticipated to commence revenue generation in 2025. Their 2,400 hectare oil palm plantation in Edo State is projected to commence oil production in 2024, and their cassava processing plant is also anticipated to be operational in 2024. Upon the operationalization of these facilities, Ellah Lakes will be able to begin selling their products and generating revenue.

Its total equity stands at 19.9 billion naira as at the end of July 2023, which has been increasing, primarily owing to land appreciation. The group has been incurring an average of 900 million naira annually to run the farm and business. I estimate that they will expend a total of approximately 2 billion naira before commencing revenue generation in 2025. This amount will be covered by land appreciation.

ELLAHLAKES possesses 5,000 hectares of land, with 2,100 hectares currently planted, while OKOMUOIL owns over 32,000 hectares of land, with 19,000 hectares planted.

Below is a simplified back-of-the-envelope calculation of what may be anticipated from ELLAHLAKES in 2025:

*Currently, OKOMUOIL generates 16.2 billion naira in profit after tax (PAT) from their 19,000 hectares.

*I project ELLAHLAKES to generate 1.8 billion naira in PAT from their 2,100 hectares proportionally.

*Assuming reduced efficiency due to ELLAHLAKES being relatively new, 0.8 x 1.8 billion naira = 1.44 billion naira in PAT.

*Earnings per share (EPS) of 1.44 billion naira / 2 = 0.72 naira.

*At the current price of 3.13 naira per share, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio should be 4.34 compared to 14 for OKOMUOIL.

*Estimated dividend yield of (0.72 naira / 3.13 naira) x .8 = 16%.

Conclusion: If all goes well, purchasing it now or at a lower price, if feasible, would be akin to purchasing UCAP in 2020, lol.

Additionally, I have observed increased interest in the stock in the last 3 months. A stock that previously traded below 10 million naira in a month is now trading 300 million and 190 million naira monthly.

grin grin grin




Who is the new core investor of Ellah Lakes.


Okomu was not profitable when it was sold by FGN at N5.00 per share


Presco was not profitable when it was sold by Edo State and Delta State government at N5.00.


Think of what we get from palm oil

Vegetable oil when bleached, margarine when the bleached oil is hydrogenated.

Body cream, soap production, drugs etc

6 Likes

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