fellas,
i see nig german chemical is knocking up seriuos dosh on the exchange in the last 11 days
have to admit i turned a deaf ear to all the noise about them

they are 1 0f 2 in their sector as far as i see and therefore won't have much competition really.
they do have sustained profitability from my research and have good variables

i wonder if its too late to get on this candy train , FOR THE LONG TERM OF COURSE.

WHAT SAY U FELLAS?

I got in at N16.7 late Oct which was still higher than the N12 folks got in with in Aug, and its gained 50% since I got mine. Some might see it as being high now but I am looking at adding a little bit more for the long term based on where I see them going, their graph appears to me to be a high tight flag, I think the price will correct sideways (which is when I'll buy more), if so the best is yet to come. I dont see it going again below N20.
The company is great, they are jack of all trades, in healthcare, oil & gas, chemicals,

aktopgun:

fellas,
i see Nigeria german chemical is knocking up seriuos dosh on the exchange in the last 11 days
have to admit i turned a deaf ear to all the noise about them

they are 1 0f 2 in their sector as far as i see and therefore won't have much competition really.
they do have sustained profitability from my research and have good variables

i wonder if its too late to get on this candy train , FOR THE LONG TERM OF COURSE.

WHAT SAY You FELLAS?

i will go for it once the bull frenzy cools , around christmas probably. Just hope it will be more affordable then.

anyone know when the year end for Nig german cchemicals is?

Dec 31
Yup I dont see it going down, it'll prob just be constant at whatever price it settles at and then take off again in Jan.

aktopgun:

i will go for it once the bull frenzy cools , around christmas probably. Just hope it will be more affordable then.

anyone know when the year end for Nig german cchemicals is?

Guys,

Seems AIICO will be a good buy now that it is on technical suspension. have a better standing based on their current standing

Any ideas/views

thanks naijadr.

hope the practice is going well. what field are u in anyway?

do u have any results or figures on them i could have pls

@ololufemi

aiico's figures look good and they are reliable (as much as any ins coy can be)

it may be difficult to get on the floor now they are on TS but ur broker could always check.
my experience is that they just say its scarce, whatever that means!

ololufemi:

@Fatherof2,

Noticed the movement of First Bank, inching close to full 5% soon.

AP is also doing a rebound, up by almost 5% and crossed N100 . This means people who sold at a high of over 114 and re-entered at 83 would soon be cleaning out very soon and have their cash registers ringing.

What's up with this market. I don't even understand it anymore and I'm scared next year might be a great boom with prices skyrocketing.

Makes me happy though.

Thanks a lot bro. Very grteful for the access tip

Na GOD we go Thank my brother.
I never know the language i will use to reveal the coded pattern of NSE.I'm still trying to figure it out.Very soonest.
Let the bears come back first,that's when i know this code works.

aktopgun:

@ololufemi

aiico's figures look good and they are reliable (as much as any ins coy can be)

it may be difficult to get on the floor now they are on TS but your broker could always check.
my experience is that they just say its scarce, whatever that means!

Aiico is a good buy.You can surely get it on the Floor.It ain't scarce.People who are scared of TS are lining up to sell.
They don't know Aiico will bounce after the offer.

@ ololufemi

Tried crossing with my sister for an IPO.
Problem was the broker said they had to sell her shares and then buy it before it was transferred to my name.
That meant I had to pay commission twice.
Was that your experience?

Samstone4

@Father of 2

May I humbly ask how you knew that Access was about to move upwards, even without the results been released?
Now were you acting based on news, or the movement of related stocks, or a brokers tip etc. I just wanna know how you picked the timing and such so I can apply said strategy to other stocks, Thanks in advance.

no_shaking:

Agreed! Based on the strength of its H2 results vis-a-vis its current price, GTB is quite expensive now!

With H2 PAT of N7.5b and o/s shares of 13.85b (H2 EPS - 0.54), by the time u annualise this eps, GTB's fair value should be around N27

All those disappointed by GTBank; last fiscal year, GTB posted 43% of it's earnings in the 4Q! 45% the year B4. Sure these results don't project well but I think GTB is guilty of conservative accounting and should still meet the 19 - 20B most of us are expecting. That said, I don't have any in my 'folio but if the market drops it to the 20s, I'm going to get some. If you own for the long-term, no fear. Me thinks they still make 20B at FY.

FatherOF2
Please you are yet to respond to my post. I thank you for the advice and I really think your access bank "prophecy" was a hit. what stock do yu think one should buy into for short-term gain, and how do you make these "speculations".

Rob-roy:

@Father of 2

May I humbly ask how you knew that Access was about to move upwards, even without the results been released?
Now were you acting based on news, or the movement of related stocks, or a brokers tip etc. I just want to know how you picked the timing and such so I can apply said strategy to other stocks, Thanks in advance.

I bought some on Monday too. I did it because Access seemed to have dropped to<18 with no good reason so a rebound was likely. Still interested in knowing why Fatherof2 was so confident about it though! Doesn't mean I now support the 25% strategy.

upward:
When do you think I should keep holding my GTB to?? I fear-oh

Hold your GTB stubbornly till you see the FY results in about 6 months. GTB make 40+% of it's PAT in the 4Q! If you sell and the price drops, people like me will be dancing in 6 months o! Go look at it's history, GTB half-year NEVER projects well.

Easimoni
Thank you easimoni.

Am I the only one who saw the C&I Leasing result?

Is it time to become a growth investor and just KILL this stock? Ki lo de? I know they have 1.6B shares and forward EPS is only 25k (forward PE is 23) , but what will the forward EPS/PE be if the coy keeps growing PAT at 200% p.a? Can they keep growing? I know some peeps brought it up and I said it wasn't time but hmmmmmm.

upward:

Easimoni
Thank you easimoni. Now to the second parto f the question, for someone with about 50k loose cash NOW, what stock do you suggest he inevst in for shortest time gains(say 2 months). He's ready to take risks

Ol boy, I side-stepped that question for a good reason . As I'm not buying in this heated environment, can't tell anyone to go buy in good faith. Will only recommend what I own or really believe in. Now is the time to hold on to our cash. People must sell for xmas money and Zenith offer next month. THEN, we buy.

Good point. I was really thinkingof that, however I have tarnsexp on my buy list.

@ Samstone

@ ololufemi

Tried crossing with my sister for an IPO.
Problem was the broker said they had to sell her shares and then buy it before it was transferred to my name.
That meant I had to pay commission twice.
Was that your experience?

Samstone4  

Samstone,

You have to pay for the cross transfers of stocks. You pay for her to sell to you and also for you to buy it from her.

if you are damn too sure that a stock will appreciate by at least 100% just like Dangote did.

I am sure you wont mind paying your broker his charges of about 3.5% to 4.3% as transaction charges for both legs i.e sell and buy.

You cannot compare 3.5% to 100% haba.

Illustrated Example.

Imagine you bought 20,000 units of Dangote Sugar IPO at N18.00 as follows

10,000 @ N180,000 for Mr You and 10,000 @ N180,000 for your sister

Dangote Sugar's Price rises to N45 and a cross deal is done to your benefit( you will receive your sister's shares)

This means your sister sells her 10000 units of Dangote Sugar shares worth N450,000 to you.

N450,000 X 3.5% = N15,750. This is how much you would pay the broker

Your gain on the purchase you made for your sister would be N450,000 - N180,000 - N15,750 = N254,250

Hope its explanatory.

When do you think I should keep holding my GTB to?? I fear-oh

I believe GTB will drop further, may reach the N29 mark by December. If you're playing
short, you may want to sell b/w N33 and N34 now, then buy back when it's in the
20's.

My guess is that the market didn't have enought time to react to the under-expectation result. I suspect we'll see a small drop on Monday.

@ oshkosh, sound logic but you assume the institutional investor will be disappointed by the result. I'm not so sure because, again, GTB makes 60+% of it PAT in the 2nd half. Still on pace for 20B. And selling to buy back is a little trickier in life than on paper. By all means sell. Only if you have a better buy or are willing to hold on to cash.

Union bank Hybrid Offer in 1Q 2008?

http://businessdayonline.com/Economic-Watch/Market-Outlook/1232.html

Dem never tire?

@ Easimoni,

Easimoni, what's your take on IBTC. i think its a sell for now based on the additional shares which has increased it to 18 billion units and the current PE Ratio of 31.87 which is above the industry average of 25.39.

I would appreciate the reply bro.

or are willing to hold on to cash

Right now, cash is king. With the exception of stocks like Access, First
bank which I managed to acquire on Monday, I'd rather kick back and watch my cash-
flow until mid December /  January when these assets have attractive prices.

I missed the Intercontinental @ < N26. This is one I believe can
touch N40 by March 08. Still hoping and eagerly waiting for the bears
to take hold in  December.

easimoni:

Union bank Hybrid Offer in 1Q 2008?

http://businessdayonline.com/Economic-Watch/Market-Outlook/1232.html

Dem never tire?

E never finish! I hear say Spring Bank too wan come market Q1 2008  
Seriouly, working on putting its house in order before coming. U know what that means? - Price to be lifted soon; excellent FY results (hook or crook  ) to follow immediately, then the engineered Q1/Q2 results and finally the almighty TS!!

oshkosh:

Still hoping and eagerly waiting for the bears
to take hold in December.

Technically, the market is currently in an overbought mode _{(time to sell beckoning & re-enter @ lower price mid dec, if short term trader)}, so the bears are just round the corner to pounce heavily _{re. end of year book keeping for institutional investors, brokers etc}.

Nothing disappointing about the GTB result. It was not below expectation in any way. Wait for the Q3 result. That's when you start to see what is cooking. Though not too bullish about GTB (they hardly fiddle with their share price), but it is a fundamentally sound growth stock. Second largest in my portfolio after FBN.

First Bank is set for big things. I see them hitting a FY PAT of about N35b. That should take the price to about 50.00. If the IIL return money is through, that is extra N10bn extra ordinary income. If they decide to sell part of tehir stake in Celtel, that is another N5bn. So going forward, First Bank is it. Not even mentioning the benefit of the last PO.

Access, what can I say? For the first time I borrowed money to buy the IPO. WHy? It was undervalued. Can remember when people were talking about them cooking up books. Now we know better.

Nigerian German is on course. Solid company. Little float so will always hold its own even in a bear market. Major attraction is the benefit that will accrue from the oil services subsidiary. High margin business that is favoured by the local content policy.

Chellarams also is doing fine.

Watch out for BOC and Vitafoam. They will be the first to release result in the new year.

WAPCO, solid company. Little growth. Possibility of a bonus is very slim.

Insurance companies will still do well. However, until the full figures are out, I say HOLD. Those guys have zero corporate governance. For those talking about AIICO, do you know that they did a PO not too long ago? Do you know that they acquired some companies? Have you seen the scheme of merger?

On Universe Re, be careful! This is a company that did not meet NAICOM requirement. I suspect that the private Placment going on now is an extension of the initial unsuccesful private placement. What happens if you subscribe and NAICOM withdraws the license. Think about those that bought the IPO of All States Trus Bank.

IBTC is over valued. Just waiting for it to reach the 20.00 mark. Definitely there are better options out there.

As per buying offers through your brothers, sisters etc, not a tidy arrangement. What if they are also interested in buying. For me, easy way out is to incorporate a company with you and your spouse as the owners if you are married. You can have many of them and use that as your investment vehicle. Yes you will bear a ONCE and for all cost of incorporation and that is all. No commission to any broker. ANother advantage is that your identity is hidden. Verification of certificates etc is a lot easier. Just put a seal on the letter to the registrar and that is all. I see that as a more tidy way of handling teh problem of over subscription.

On Transcorp the problems are many. Major problem is funding for the turn around. With the unsuccesful PO, the funds rae not there. Option is to go for more debt which means that the shareholders will wait much longer for benefits.

Transcorp over paid for NITEL so if the sale is reversed no real problem apart from sentiments. They can put that money to better use but expect serious backlash.

no_shaking:

Technically, the market is currently in an overbought mode _{(time to sell beckoning & re-enter @ lower price mid dec, if short term trader)}, so the bears are just round the corner to pounce heavily _{re. end of year book keeping for institutional investors, brokers etc}.

Well, don't be too sure. If the trapped insurance funds and teh PFA enters the market, you will be suprised. Add that to the First Bnak return money. So, you need to know what is driving the market.

Well, my NGC will not come down to teh 12.62 that I bought in August correction or not!

I better not say the bears are coming or else some landers may be annoyed at me.

Take a cue from the insurance stocks, once people are satisfied with short term profits, they go sell 9profit Taking)


Waiting for them so we fit reenter at reasonable prices, the market too hot for now.

Another reason is that Bank PHB, Zenith, First Inland and Afribank will conclude their offers by first quarter 2008 and this would cost about N400 billion.

Means a significant amount will be sucked from the secondary market for transfer to the primary market.

Na wah for this market.

Union bank too don come enter.

so if the sale is reversed no real problem apart from sentiments

No need to panic (in the mid-long term) with Transcorp. The sale will not be reversed.
As a matter of fact, I see a swift turnaround of fortunes. What I see coming out of this
is a resolution that Transcorp needs more funding (which everyone already knows!), and
then deliberations on funding options.

The goverment may asssit, and rightly so. They own 49% of the company and
should be providing all possible assistance, not these political rhetoric. Besides,
transcorp is already a public company with very sound management but lacking
funds.

The dust will settle by January after all the reviews, and any good news from
that is likely to result in a sharp, northward swing of the share price.

fellow Naiaralanders

pumping, easimoni, fatherof2, wanaj0 ,

I am a stock market virgin. I have a quick question, can anyone tell me the historical behaviour of stock market this time of the year. Does it generally tend get depressed. Is it wise to buy from the secondary market this time of the year, or is it better t wait till a certain time after xmas?. My stock broker friend is advicing against generally waiting till January.

Whats the deal with Dunlop / Access / Afribank (PO), these are stocks am about to invest heavily based on my brokers advice. Any misgivings?

Suggestions highly appreciated

regards

Bigjay01