Folks,

Looking for some information on C & I Leasing - about to do some number crunching. Does anyone know the exact number of shares outstanding?
Back-calculating from the market cap data on Cashcraft indicates it may be around 600 million but I thought they recently did an offer for 1.6 billion shares?? and I know that they have a convertible loan debenture from a foreign investment firm on their books.

That said, may be an interesting stock pick once the current wave settles. Thanks!

@ Those who asked,

1. In history,there is nothing new under the sun,you need to know the past to predict the future.Thats one way.

2. I told someone earlier to follow your business newspapers very regularly.
i don't buy anything else. I don't even know what is happening in Nigeria now
I hear we now have a new woman speaker called Patricia Etteh and she's doing quite well. Is she?.

These are the numbers for CILEASING using 1.6B outstanding shares.

                              Price      Out Shares             Proj PAT        PE

C & I LEASING PLC N5.80 1.6B           0.37B 24.90


PO sometime June 2006 for 1.4B shares - Around 75% subscribed according to SEC website.

There is some contention that the figure should be 1.35B but I can't validate this.

@ Wanajo
Easimoni
Father of 2

Bagco or PHB with a time frame of 2009?

Tonyjon suggests PHB but am still mulling my options. I dont want to buy both. majority wins.
Please reply soonest. Thanks

Pumping I see ur online. Please contribute too, Thanks

FatherOF2:

@ Those who asked,

I hear we now have a new woman speaker called Patricia Etteh and she's doing quite well. Is she?.

Yes o. So well that she is being considered for Senate president  

youngdoc:

@ Wanajo
Easimoni
Father of 2

Bagco or PHB with a time frame of 2009?

Tonyjon suggests PHB but am still mulling my options. I don't want to buy both. majority wins.
Please reply soonest. Thanks

Bank PHB.

Many thanks Pumping!

pumping777:

Yes o. So well that she is being considered for Senate president

infact not senate president alone for nigeria president self

Thanks Pumping,

Didn't know that the offer was fully subscribed (for 1.4 billion units). If it was, then it's not quite as attractive as I thought it was although the growth prospects of the company look good. Crunching more numbers, if the offer had greater than 50% subscription, then Law Union & Rock is still a better buy (I hear you say different industries but the main area of growth for both of those companies will likely be in their oil and gas business)

Enjoy the rest of your Thanskgiving weekend!

pumping777:

These are the numbers for CILEASING using 1.6B outstanding shares.

Price Out Shares Proj PAT PE

C & I LEASING PLC N5.80 1.6B 0.37B 24.90


PO sometime June 2006 for 1.4B shares - Around 75% subscribed according to SEC website.

There is some contention that the figure should be 1.35B but I can't validate this.

brita123:

Thanks Pumping,

Didn't know that the offer was fully subscribed (for 1.4 billion units). If it was, then it's not quite as attractive as I thought it was although the growth prospects of the company look good. Crunching more numbers, if the offer had greater than 50% subscription, then Law Union & Rock is still a better buy (I hear you say different industries but the main area of growth for both of those companies will likely be in their oil and gas business)

Enjoy the rest of your Thanskgiving weekend!

The offer was not fully subscribed (it was 75%). As pumping said, the total # of shares is 1.601B.

youngdoc:

@ Wanajo
Easimoni
Father of 2

Bagco or PHB with a time frame of 2009?

Tonyjon suggests PHB but am still mulling my options. I don't want to buy both. majority wins.
Please reply soonest. Thanks

Bank PHB hands down.

bigjay01:

fellow Naiaralanders
pumping, easimoni, fatherof2, wanaj0 ,
I am a stock market virgin. I have a quick question, can anyone tell me the historical behaviour of stock market this time of the year. Does it generally tend get depressed. Is it wise to buy from the secondary market this time of the year, or is it better t wait till a certain time after xmas?. My stock broker friend is advicing against generally waiting till January.
Whats the deal with Dunlop / Access / Afribank (PO), these are stocks am about to invest heavily based on my brokers advice. Any misgivings?

This is only my 3rd yr in the market and the large PO flying around make it impossible for me to predict the market direction. I think the market is slightly over-heated at the moment and could cool down in the next 2 week. Also, xmas and the Zenith offers in Dec should lower prices. My advice: wait till December to start buying.

Go for Access and the Bank PHB PO. No to Dunlop and the Afribank PO.

@Wanaj0 made a point about money coming from FBN returned funds and Institutional investors keeping the market from cooling.

He has a point, but I believe even if this funds come, it will be zapped by the Public offers set to debut in December, the truth is we are all extrapolating.

_{Where is @Bigboylary with his crystall ball when you need him?.}

I was one of the people that had problems with Access and their books - they are cooking it. Most Banks do cook their books - period!. _{believe it or not}

and it also happens in developed countries too - if it did not we would not have the Enron saga and the current sub prime lending problem.

However, that does not stop us from making profit.

Anyone know what is driving Law and Union through the roof?

The market did not react when they released their 3rd Quarter result and it was quite good.

So why react now? They have been on full 5% in the last 3 days!!.

I wonder if it will still go back to the days of 3.19?

yodiyokun:

@Wanaj0 made a point about money coming from FBN returned funds and Institutional investors keeping the market from cooling.

He has a point, but I believe even if this funds come, it will be zapped by the Public offers set to debut in December, the truth is we are all extrapolating.

_{Where is @Bigboylary with his crystall ball when you need him?.}

I was one of the people that had problems with Access and their books - they are cooking it. Most Banks do cook their books - period!. _{believe it or not}

and it also happens in developed countries too - if it did not we would not have the Enron saga and the current sub prime lending problem.

However, that does not stop us from making profit.

What is your definition of cooking books? If you have worked as an external auditor before you will understand some of the issues involved.

Basic problem with Enron was failure on the part of the auditor. The auditor compromised its position. Acting as a consultant and as an auditor at the same time.

Corporate governance is vital in companies that one invests in.

yodiyokun:

Anyone know what is driving Law and Union through the roof?

The market did not react when they released their 3rd Quarter result and it was quite good.

So why react now? They have been on full 5% in the last 3 days!!.

I wonder if it will still go back to the days of 3.19?

Improved liquidity is driving the market. Things will cool out soon.

Corporate governance is vital in companies that one invests in.

@ Wanajo, agree with this statement, but it would seem the pressure on banks to grow
revenue and  "positioning" following the rash of PO's / GDR / debt, has/will undoubtedly lead
to  share price manipulation and creative accounting amongst some banks.

It's hard tell which banks may or may not be involved, but banks like GTB somehow comes
across as one that doesn't. Only time will tell.

Sooner or later, the CBN / SEC will have to increase their supervisory functions over these banks.
God forbid a major scandal erupts in this sector - the bedrock of the NSE's exponential growth.

The consequences of this is better imagined.

Even if the banks are cooking the books, it can only be half cooked because they pay out huge cash dividends so there is some real profit cooking there.

pumping777:

Even if the banks are cooking the books, it can only be half cooked because they pay out huge cash dividends so there is some real profit cooking there.

There is no doubt about it - They make money.

However "cooking books" is relative.  The majority of the cooking has to do with loan portfolio. Enough recycling of non performing loans and repackaging - some taken off the books completely. This is not creative accounting - it is corporate fraud!.

Most people argue about this point relentlessly , I know what I have seen with my naked eyes . I know what I know - chikena.

oshkosh:

@ Wanajo, agree with this statement, but it would seem the pressure on banks to grow
revenue and  "positioning" following the rash of PO's / GDR / debt, has/will undoubtedly lead
to  share price manipulation and creative accounting amongst some banks.

It's hard tell which banks may or may not be involved, but banks like GTB somehow comes
across as one that doesn't. Only time will tell.

Sooner or later, the CBN / SEC will have to increase their supervisory functions over these banks.
God forbid a major scandal erupts in this sector - the bedrock of the NSE's exponential growth.

The consequences of this is better imagined.

GTB is one of my favorite banks especially with Corporate Governance, they are far better than the cream of the crop.

The issue of the pressure to perform  is a basis for worry - I agree with you.

CBN - Is it Beans - did any one here read the letter addressed to Soludo from the Spring bank M.D?

Soludo has a long way to go in cleaning, the Banking supervison and inspection departments - Most of those guys have fed fat through Banks.

I know we used to pay them in dollars (naira will be too big to carry) to commot face from anomalies they see. Banks settle them because they have things to hide.

Recently CBN had plans to implement a software that will directly upload Banks financial data to CBN database for analysis - I am not sure if that has taken off. It will be a good step to curb /reduce bribing CBN officials.

The Brazilian bank that went under 2 years ago because of a fraudulent money transfer was traced back to Nigeria - Union Bank in particular. Many Banks were involved, I was privy to handle some of the documents used in part of the deal.

Let us just keep praying, that Soludo will forge ahead with good corporate governance in order to protect customers, the public and the market.

pumping777:

Even if the banks are cooking the books, it can only be half cooked because they pay out huge cash dividends so there is some real profit cooking there.

Forget cash dividends? The Banks that are sitting on cash are UBN and FBN -- I am not sure about Afribank / Zenith. The others are begging God.

According to paper, they are paying dividends from profits  - In reality the cash dividend may be paid from liabilities,  !!!!!!

yodiyokun:

Anyone know what is driving Law and Union through the roof?

The market did not react when they released their 3rd Quarter result and it was quite good.

So why react now? They have been on full 5% in the last 3 days!!.

I wonder if it will still go back to the days of 3.19?

Lawunion has actually done app. 5% each day for the last 7 trading days. I bought at N3.11 last week Wednesday(pure luck becuase I had been waiting on the order for almost 2 weeks but it never dropped to my bid price) and it is  N4.41 today. A gain of over 40%. This has always been my favourite insurance stock because it has much lower volatility.

I think the shareholding structure limits the rate of profit taking thereby reducing volatility.

Before the last PO, 63% of Lawunion belonged to Skye Bank, Consolidated Discounts Ltd and Swede Control intertek. I don't know what the figures are now but I will expect something similar.

I feel we won't see N3.31 for Lawunion again except for some government policy reversal that affects the insurance industry or they come out with a disastrous result.

Here we go again like defensive investors,  Book cooking,

All I can say is try and watch your portfolio and exit when you liver can't carry again.
Summary the Nigerian environment is still very volatile and people are making money out of it,  Unfortunate?,  Yes. Soludo needs to be El Rufai and Ribadu combined to be able to put adequate corrective/preventive measures in place.

Can people think which three banks Soludo says are marginal,
http://www.tribune.com.ng/23112007/news/news2.html
Cheers

yodiyokun:

There is no doubt about it - They make money.

However "cooking books" is relative.  The majority of the cooking has to do with loan portfolio. Enough recycling of non performing loans and repackaging - some taken off the books completely. This is not creative accounting - it is corporate fraud!.

Most people argue about this point relentlessly , I know what I have seen with my naked eyes . I know what I know - chikena.

My reply was actually on a lighter note. I do agree with you that there is some genius accounting in the banking industry and like you said it does not stop us from making money.

@Ololufemi

Just wanted to check whether my brokers ripped me off or not.

I agree with Wanajo, it is tidier to use your company(ies) to buy the shares.

@wanajo

Very persuasive and comprehensive bird's eyeview of the situation.

You must be a stockbroker?

I agree with you that people there is unlikely to be any prolonged bear market.

People will not jump in wholeheartedly into the POs like for 1st Bank. Besides even if we do the monies Will be returned earlier because:

1) No more stupid CBN verification of everybody and
2) New SEC guidelines on allotments and return of monies.

@Oshkosh

I have been a perennial Transcorp optimist but I'm shaking a bit. My sources tell me nothing to worry about and I don't think Government will

want to take on the expenses when the BPE are already in court for not paying 5 year salaries allegedly promised to disengaged workers at

privatisation.
The new directors should make a difference with all the "yeye" goings on there. It has been embarrassing to me - an ardent advocate of Transcorp ideal!

With greater honesty from the board, the company will do well. I still believe the new MD has a workable strategy that will reap bounties. My main problem with the company has been one of credibility. It was especially damaging when one of the departed directors denied that the PO was undersubscribed. Guess he was in a very difficult situation at a very sensitive time for the company.

Fighting over which contractors to supply equipment was very damaging. It looked like they were all trying to give the job to their people. We all know what has been gong on with Siemens, Haliburton, Wilbros etc

Samstone4

pumping777:

Even if the banks are cooking the books, it can only be half cooked because they pay out huge cash dividends so there is some real profit cooking there.

If you want to know the Banks sitting on Cash - look for a way of Getting the NIBSS statement (NIg Interbank settlement scheme). The consistent net placers  are the cash cows and consistent net takers - have liquidity issues ( the sure sign of mismanagement)

Geees:

Here we go again like defensive investors, Book cooking,

All I can say is try and watch your portfolio and exit when you liver can't carry again.
Summary the Nigerian environment is still very volatile and people are making money out of it, Unfortunate?, Yes. Soludo needs to be El Rufai and Ribadu combined to be able to put adequate corrective/preventive measures in place.

Can people think which three banks Soludo says are marginal,
http://www.tribune.com.ng/23112007/news/news2.html
Cheers

Marginal Banks ---- _{taking a wild guess here} FIB, Spring , Unity and Sterling come to mind - Take your pick

3 marginal banks?

my guess
first inland had problems with their 25 billion reserves after the massive write off of the last result, anyone remember?
Spring bank for sure after all the lying by the banks involved in the merger, little wonder some wonder if the bank is still alive,

[color=#006600]HELLO TO MY FELLOW NAIRALANDERS,
TEMMIE10. WANAJO, PUMPING777 ETC,
PLEASE I WANTED TO BUY 100,000 UNITS OF "UNITED
NIGERIA TEXTILE", UNTL. NEXT WEEK THURSDAY.
THE PRICE HAS DROPPED TO MERE N1.51k TODAY PRICE.
6 MONTHS AGO IT WAS ABOUT N6. MAY ALMIGHTY GOD
REWARD U GUYS ENDLESSLY.

Roland E:

[color=#006600]HELLO TO MY FELLOW NAIRALANDERS,
TEMMIE10. WANAJO, PUMPING777 ETC,
PLEASE I WANTED TO BUY 100,000 UNITS OF "UNITED
NIGERIA TEXTILE", UNTL. NEXT WEEK THURSDAY.
THE PRICE HAS DROPPED TO MERE N1.51k TODAY PRICE.
6 MONTHS AGO IT WAS ABOUT N6. MAY ALMIGHTY GOD
REWARD You GUYS ENDLESSLY.

Hello,
Though i don't understand your messge
Are you asking for advice? If so please STAY OFF UNTL because:
http://businessdayonline.com/Analysis/Editorial/584.html and http://www.thetidenews.com/article.aspx?qrDate=11/14/2007&qrTitle=Revamping%20the%20textile%20industry&qrColumn=FEATURES

They are broke and are folding up,
Unless there is news that it has been revived, then please I would love to read about it.
Cheers

Roland E:

[color=#006600]HELLO TO MY FELLOW NAIRALANDERS,
TEMMIE10. WANAJO, PUMPING777 ETC,
PLEASE I WANTED TO BUY 100,000 UNITS OF "UNITED
NIGERIA TEXTILE", UNTL. NEXT WEEK THURSDAY.
THE PRICE HAS DROPPED TO MERE N1.51k TODAY PRICE.
6 MONTHS AGO IT WAS ABOUT N6. MAY ALMIGHTY GOD
REWARD You GUYS ENDLESSLY.

I believe UNTL announced shut down around October this year. Did you hear of a buyout and revamping of the company

Forget that the stock price turned around around N1 and has consistently risen now to N1.50. The interest could be because of the "low" nominal price.

@ pumping777, got diamond today at 19.10. still couldnt get BETA GLASS but i thank God it lost today. my prayer now is on access coming down. diamond and betaglass, dangote sugar are all my darlings, after that, i aint buying nothing till christmas.

brothers, i've just been doing a little extra digging on my new favorite company, Nig-german

these guys have had the same amount of shares outstanding for at least 9 yrs which is as far back as i can research

consistent profits too

i wish someone had pulled my ears about these guys o!!

anyway its not too late, i'll just be patient till the bulls are locked back in the pen and hit the share hard

who's with me, any figures/ratios on Nig german fellas

chei i don slack!!

I actually found out about Nig-German from here in Sep, and did research before going in late Oct, it was about 20% of my small portfolio, actually wanted it to be 25%, but took away funds I had allocated for it unfortunately.

They havent given any bonuses since, which is great for me, neither have they come out seeking funds through POs
They are serously undervalued, even though they are listed under chemical paints, their interests in oil and gas is huge, and its their top 2 area alongside pharmaceuticals for largest profits. I love their partnership with the big dogs like pfizer with whom they produce the drug Benylin and other stuff.

I think they limit the amount of shares available too which helps keep the price unaffected even during a bear market. Chief Shonekan holds a large amt.
I like the management, I like Alhaji Idris the Emir of Zaria being the chairman given his connections.
NGC also are invested in UNIC Insurance

This is their report from 2005
http://www.ngcplc.com/financials/NGCPLC_Annual_Report_2005.pdf

This is the data I have based on linear projection of half year PAT of 119.5M from turnover of 1.36B.

NIGERIA-GERMAN CHEMICALS PLC

Price          Outst. Share                      Proj PAT                   PE
25.35        0.15               0.24         16.31