@ Easimoni, shigidi n ALL



Crusader Insurance Plc 2nd Quarter Ended June 30th, 2007

                                            2007                         2006

Turnover                               1.3b                         0.78b

PBT                                       635.7m                   171.6m
Taxation                               (42.5m)                   (26.3m)

PAT                                       593.2m                   145.3m



Looks like somebody saw this result days ago, the price has steadily gone 5% up a few days now and then eps even with the additional shares is looking like 37k.

shreks:

Hello, i will like to know the lowest amount that brokers accept. Is it possible to get a broker who will accept like #1000 to buy shares for me. I don't have a broker yet. Am not working yet and thats what i can get in two months. Thanks.

use the money to buy public offers. I think 1000 naira may be too small. Try to acquire at least 4,000 naira more to buy one of the offers that will come later in the year.

You can go for penny stocks like Japaul Oil or International Breweries @ 87k per share. A German Brewery has acquire a stake in International Breweries.

Temmie10 and all gurus in da house: What's your take on International Breweries and the proposed PO?

Read about it in the BusinessDay, but here's a different link.

http://www.ngex.com/news/public/newsinfo.php?nid=4606

German brewery acquires stake in International Breweries in Ilesha
x | August 13, 2007
Brauhasse International of Germany now owns 60.1 percent of the company of International Breweries plc, Ilesha. It also recently made available 3.2 million euros as deposit for shares in the forthcoming offer to enable it maintain its equity holding in the company.

The core investor, Brauhasse International, is a wholly owned subsidiary of Warsteiner Group, one of the biggest privately owned breweries in Germany, operating since 1753.

The offer by which International Breweries intends to raise about N1.4 billion, has been approved by the Nigerian Stock Exchange and is awaiting the approval of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

General Manager of Sterling Capital, the financial advisers and issuing house, noted that with the Core Investor taking up about 60% of the proposed offer, and other identified investors taking up additional 20%, the offer is already fully sold.

International Breweries is one of the few indigenous breweries in Nigeria, and it commenced operations in 1978, producing the Trophy brand of beer and a non-alcoholic beverage, Betamal.

@knowAll
can you pls send me the spreadsheet.

German brewery acquires stake in International Breweries in Ilesha

Brauhasse International of Germany now owns 60.1 percent of the company of International Breweries plc, Ilesha. It also recently made available 3.2 million euros as deposit for shares in the forthcoming offer to enable it maintain its equity holding in the company.

The core investor, Brauhasse International, is a wholly owned subsidiary of Warsteiner Group, one of the biggest privately owned breweries in Germany, operating since 1753.

The offer by which International Breweries intends to raise about N1.4 billion, has been approved by the Nigerian Stock Exchange and is awaiting the approval of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

General Manager of Sterling Capital, the financial advisers and issuing house, noted that with the Core Investor taking up about 60% of the proposed offer, and other identified investors taking up additional 20%, the offer is already fully sold.

International Breweries is one of the few indigenous breweries in Nigeria, and it commenced operations in 1978, producing the Trophy brand of beer and a non-alcoholic beverage, Betamal.

Omoba3

I dunno much about this but i guess the first fundamental question that comes to mind is "How many people still drink trophy beer and betamalt?"

A business cannot be separated from its price. Lets keep fingers crossed tho.

Temmie10: Thanks for the prompt reply. You're a star!

Temmie10:

@ egoldman

Before you go and fight with your broker. Let me jus try to put things as straight as possible. The bonus shares for the year ended 2007 has not yet been credited o. It will be credited to all those still holding the shares of FBN as at 20/8/2007.

What you read on proshare was the bonus issue for the year ended 2006, i read the report too. you are not entitled to that one and that is why your broker is correct.
If anybody has recieved bonus for FBN 2007, let them speak up,

@ easimoni
i will try to post some more analysis.
How many shares does Oando have in issue? i read that it is 572 million. Can you please doublecheck that for me.

Could someone give me the email id and contact numbers of firstbank registrar ? i guess they will be able to tell me where i stand on this .i also need the automated inquiry numbers of the cscs to verify what i have in there (hope its working this time )

Ok guys , it looks like my broker is probably right about the bonus thing , i have been able to search the said article on proshare and below are the details, it clearly said that the bonus that was credited was for those that bought firstbank shares in 2006 while i bought mine in the month of February 2007 ;

Proshare News and Analysis
Bonus Issue Credited by CSCS for 5 firms
Posted Wednesday, August 1, 2007

Kindly be informed that the Central Securities Clearing Systems Ltd (CSCS) has credited accounts of shareholders that qualified for bonus issues of the companies listed below with the bonus declared for 2006 financial year end. The companies are:



1. Benue Cement Company Plc (BCC)

2. United Bank for Africa Plc (UBA)

3. Oceanic Bank Plc

4. Union Bank of Nigeria Plc (UBN)

5. First Bank of Nigeria (FBN)



Please if your portfolio has not been updated with the bonus, kindly contact your stockbrokers

if you guys think that i should still be qualified to received the bonus please let me

news source ; http://www.proshareng.com/myproshare/portal_news.php?id=2697

But wait oooh , am kinda getting confused here let us look at it from this angle, if someone had bought firstbank shares in 2006 and is eligible for the 1 for 6, then in February this year the person sold it , does that mean the one who bought it (me) will not be able to claim the bonus ? what if the original owner from last year did not sell it, does that mean that owner also is not qualified ? does the change of ownership mean the new owner is not eligible for the bonus ?
damn it i need full contact of firstbank registrar and God help my broker if she is trying to play fast one at me , not gonna take it no easy with her

frank iririr, i need your contact number badly oooh, i have lost the one i had as i changed my phone , i need to be cleared very well about this matter .

Since it is the old 1 for 1 bonus that they were refering to you are not entitled oh

aaaaaah , is that so ? i was thinking they were referring to the 1 to 6 own , anyway thanks everyone for helping out , thats the good thing about nairaland forum

@goldman
i was just going through your mails in the forum and what caught me attention was the time you did your posting and you still had people awake to give you reply(s) immediately, just want to thank every one for being there for each other
this your bonus thing with FBN must have given you sleepless nights,my brother try sleep today

[quote:Temmie10]Easimoni has given you a very good short answer. Anybody who is knowledgable about stocks will tell you that the share price is of very little use as an indicator to whether a company is cheap or not. Think about fundamentals, potential for growth, eps, pe,

If not, keep waiting for 200 o, Jesus will probably come earlier[quote][/quote]


Looks like i dont have to wait till when Jesus come before we see our Blue chip stocks hitting N200.00 per stock, with this new re-dennomination of the Naira. For example Zeniths stock value is currently N63.00, by august 2008, when re-denomination has taken place lets assume zenith's stock is still N63, that figure will be divided by 100 to get a new stock valuation. By doing this the new value of Zenith's stock will 0.63kobo, if it now grows from 0.63kobo to N2.00, then it would archeived the old N200.00 bench mark. Because the new N200 will be about $252.00.

@ knowall

"if it now grows fro 0.63k to 2 naira", u really know all.

i really like you, your way of playing around figures and all, esp that u dun use any facts.
Zenith stock at us$2.00?, it will have to be the biggest bank in africa, but they will still split it so you're still dreaming.

but since u no wan hear, u don win, zenith will reach 200 so go and buy buy buy and wait wait wait.
The truth is not for everybody.
Enuf said!

temmie10, fantastic crusader result! looks like the insurance sector might rally again pretty soon. personally, im confused as to which insurance coys are good buys. evry1 says mutual benefit, wapic or crusader and even continental re: . but i really dont know much in terms of their projected eps, no. of shares and all that. plus they seem to list new shares almost evry other day in this sector, what are your picks?

[quote:Temmie10] "if it now grows fro 0.63k to 2 naira", u really know all.


it is a matter of fact, e don grow b4 from N11.00 in 2004 to N63.00 in 2007, that is 6X, i dont see any reason why it will not grow from 0.63k to N2.00, 4X, in the new dispenstion.[quote][/quote]

plus all their p/e ratios seem to be quite high.

@ Temmie10,

Oando has 572 M shares as you stated. However, as part of the restructuring, they'll list an additional 200 M shares later this year. Multiply the current PE (12.3) by 1.35 to get the full picture (16.5). Still not bad for a 50% growth rate. Def better than my beloved GTB.

@ Temmie10, per your previous post on Crusader, see why I just KNOW the market is (to some degree) fixed? Some people started buying up before the results were published. NSE needs to step in and start punishing these inside traders. Thing is peeps in the NSE prob participate in insider deals.

@ easimoni, i have another tutorial question
spaeking about using a prospectus to know if an offer is good or not, i was looking at access banks prospectus, i see their projected eps is 1.12 for 2008 and 1.54 for 2009. so lets say it has a p.e of 28 by year end(march), that gives a forcast price of 30 naira. okay, now looking at 2009, if we assume same p.e, we have about 42naira range. so my question is , is it right to asume the p.e range will be more or less the same which means u can forecast roughly the price of access in 2010? somehow ,it just doesnt seem that simple.the p.e range surely must change for an industry shouldnt it? and did they even consider if they will give bonus or not. pls help me out here.
secondly, as i asked temmie10 earlier, im kinda stuck when it comes to the insurance sector. can u give me advice on which ones are good for 1year time frame. its confusing trying to calculate anything in that sector for me.
thanks men.

[quote:Shigidi] secondly, as i asked temmie10 earlier, im kind of stuck when it comes to the insurance sector. can u give me advice on which ones are good for 1year time frame. its confusing trying to calculate anything in that sector for me.
thanks men.

to be sincere, i will like to invest in d insurance sector too, but that sector na real "kalokalo"

@ Shigidi,
KnowAll answered your question on the Insurance sector well. Na real Kalokalo at the moment. So many companies, who did PO, IPO, private placement? How many shares did they sell? What were the profit projections? Clearly, Crusader and AIICO have shown good results and seem to be safe bets. Can't speak about others.

TO your 1st questions, PEs change all the time. When I started investing in Dec 04, PE's for banks ranged from 6-11. Yes, you read it right. Who is to say they won't return there some day? Doesn't seem likely with the buzz around the NSE at the moment but it's ultimately inevitable. Buy the company that has a good mix of low current PE and high growth and you'll be best protected against a bear market.

easimoni:

@ Temmie10,

Oando has 572 M shares as you stated. However, as part of the restructuring, they'll list an additional 200 M shares later this year. Multiply the current PE (12.3) by 1.35 to get the full picture (16.5). Still not bad for a 50% growth rate. Def better than my beloved GTB.

You and this your OandO fascination. Hope you've factored in the fact that the turnover drop hence if the margin remains the same that there will be a drop in profit? I expect margins to even drop due to the refusal of government to deregulate teh sector.

Though the six months result shows an increase in profit, note that this is due to an Exceptional Item.

Personally, the petroleum marketing sector is not a place to be. Margins are thin and will continue to reduce until government decide to deregulate the sector.

Focus on Insurance, healthcare, Chemicals and the banking sector. That's where the growth will come from. C & I and Japaul (based on offer price and profit forecast) are good ones also. They are set to benefit from the local content policy .

If there is a stock that is cheap now, it is Flour Mills especially for the long term. Nigerian German will be a good one after the current pull back.

@ All,

IBTC's latest Stock Select is out. Note; only 6 banks are short-term "BUYs". Temmie10, Oando is also a "BUY", long and short-term.

@ Wanaj0,
where have u been? Just sold my BETA Glass . Should have sold when u said so.

Thanks for the gist on Oando. Will give it some thought. Didn't know about the EI (you don't see that on a one-line summary).

Flour Mills. it shocked me that the FY result didn't get any response from the market. I agree it's cheap.

C&I; it seems no one can get it now. I'll try when the demand subsides.

easimoni:

@ All,

IBTC's latest Stock Select is out. Note; only 6 banks are short-term "BUYs". Temmie10, Oando is also a "BUY", long and short-term.

For IBTC, there are other rules that drives there stock selection. Diversification is one of them. Another is the capitalisation of the stock and liquidity. That's why Conoil with reducing profit in a sector that has minimal growth made the list!!!!!

OandO has been on that list since the beginning of the year and the return is almost nil in a market that has returned 50% on the average.

No way I will buy any stock in the petroleum marketing sector until there is deregulation!!! The margins are just too small. Competition so stiff. Growth minimal and capital requirement HUGE.

easimoni:

@ Wanaj0,
where have u been? Just sold my BETA Glass . Should have sold when u said so.

Thanks for the gist on Oando. Will give it some thought. Didn't know about the EI (you don't see that on a one-line summary).

Flour Mills. it shocked me that the FY result didn't get any response from the market. I agree it's cheap.

C&I; it seems no one can get it now. I'll try when the demand subsides.

Brother I dey. Soemtimes is good to let others share their views.

Flour Mills result was solid even though the 90k dividend was a disgrace. That the share still held its own shows that all is well!!! Though I don't like the Chairman of the board, Flour Mills is up to BIG things. Growth and profitability are excellent. May wait till October to buy them though.

On OandO, though the PE is low, there are many other things holding the price down. One of them is corporate governance. See how Ocean and Oil increase their holdings through teh so called merger scheme arrangement. To amke matters worse, they talked about almost doubling EPS just like that. That is creative accounting as far as I am concerned.

Another thing is the high turnover of its management staff. That is making investors uncomfortable.

Last is the fact that the margin in that industry generally is reducing. If not for the EI, OandO's profit would have dropped. OandO was forced to pay almost all its earnings out as dividend just to keep the price up! This is sinspite of the huge debt overhang and the need to fund expansion projects. That sector for me is not the way to go irrespective of the PE.

C & I will be scarce. It is also not a very liquid stock anyway.

Don't worry about Beta Glass. It should rebound. But for the long term I will be careful. Turnover is not growing. With NAFDAC's plan to stop bottling companies from having their product in bottles as from 2008/2009, things will be hard for them.

AIICO looks good but I don't trust them. They do some abracadbra sometimes.

@ Shigidi

On Insurance:
I dunno if you've seen the movie "Wall Street", Michael Douglas makes a statement in one of the scenes.
"I look at 99 deals a day, i choose one".
That is very similar to my take on the Insurance sector.
There are 25 companies listed and more on the way.
But even in a funny sector, the good companies will do very well

I am all smiles over the crusader result though.
How can a company show less than 200m in the first 3 months and then almost 600m PAT in the 6 months result?
If they can maintain/grow pat at any rate close to what they are doing, then this still has a long way to go. it still looks cheap even at a price of 5 naira.

Mutual benefits is not too bad too, waiting for their result tho, on a 1 yr plan, this is probably a good time to enter mutual benefits. IT is well documented that wapic has good potential but you cannot buy them all. I am restricting myself to just 2 stocks in insurance as a matter of fact.

@ Easimoni,
thx for the ibtcreport. looks like the ei abt oando is true. they have some listing on the jse(south africa) and about 4 million out of the 18 million dollars half year profit was not factored into the jse eps calculation.

Anyone willing to comment on the recently listed Airline Services and Logistics? It looks like it's mimicking NACHO in price run up,

@ Temmie, Easimoni and wanajo



If I understand you guys right, Insurance stocks are good to buy? I am having lots of Lasaco stocks and I am contemplating to drop the stocks because it's like YO-YO going up and down everyday but i just saw their year ended result and i am like, Maybe i should just hold on,

What do you guys think


LASACO ASSURANCE PLC: Audited account for the year ended Dec 31 2006. Turnover stood at N1.6 Billion as against N0.95 Billion in the comparable period of 2005. Profit Before Tax (PBT) is N225.3M for 2006 compared with N177.5M in 2005, Profit after Tax for 2006 stood at N171.5M, compared with N141.3M in the comparable period of 2005