abeg
all of you wey dey stress una selves
i joined www.antonioshares.com
and i cycled out
many of these options are too expensive
plus how many people get dat much cash and you have to start looking for people

crazyT:

@ Temmie, Easimoni and wanajo



If I understand you guys right, Insurance stocks are good to buy? I am having lots of Lasaco stocks and I am contemplating to drop the stocks because it's like YO-YO going up and down everyday but i just saw their year ended result and i am like, Maybe i should just hold on,

What do you guys think

Man, did u see Lasaco's interim results? If you believe the N560M PAT for 6 months, Lasaco's full year will give you an EPS of ~N1. This is a N15 stock. DO NOT SELL. DO NOT SELL. DO NOT SELL. DO NOT SELL. DO NOT SELL.

You get the drift

BTW, did y'all catch the news about Afribank being placed on technical suspension for a PO at N25. Didn't the stock just come off suspension about a month ago? I don't understand this market o! Anyway, make we see prospectus.

LAGOS (Reuters) - Investors in Nigeria's burgeoning stock market are seeing danger signals that the recent rally is turning into a bubble.

Concerns focus on banks, where share price growth has been spectacular since a wave of consolidation in 2005. Most bank stocks have more than doubled in value this year alone -- some have risen by more than 500 percent -- and the majority now trade at more than 20 times their expected 2008 earnings.

Investors say these multiples are unsustainable, even for a fast-growing "pioneer" market like Nigeria, where investor confidence has been growing steadily since economic reforms began in 2003.

"All the indicators of a market going out of control are here," said Jonathan Chew, head of Imara Asset Management UK Ltd, which has $25 million in Nigerian securities.

"When the entire retail sector is talking about stocks and shares, you know it is getting toppy," he added.

Reforms introduced by former President Olusegun Obasanjo won the country debt relief and a BB- credit rating in 2005. Optimism was fuelled by a peaceful transition from one civilian leader to another in elections in April -- a first for Nigeria -- despite widespread vote rigging.

President Umaru Yar'Adua has promised to extend Obasanjo's reforms and the All-Shares Index is up 68 percent in the 12 months to Aug 15, while the naira currency has strengthened against the dollar.

Fears of a bubble in the banking sector have mounted on reports that some banks are engaged in highly leveraged share purchase schemes through stockbrokers.

One senior bank executive said he knew of one case where a capital market operator borrowed 6 billion naira from a bank to invest in that bank's shares.

Bismarck Rewane, a consultant with Financial Derivatives Co. in Lagos, said the practice was widespread.

"Margin trading is the biggest gamble in town right now. It's very dangerous," he said.

'UNBRIDLED RISKS'

Godwin Obaseki, managing director of brokers Afrinvest, said banks have extended big loans to brokers, perhaps as much as 20 percent of the whole country's credit. But he said he did not know of cases where banks insisted on the loans being used to buy their own shares, which would be illegal.

© Reuters 2007. All Rights Reserved. | Learn more about Reuters ; http://africa.reuters.com/business/news/usnBAN547936.html

On the redenomination issue we can expect share reconstructions to be the order of the day except the government would introduce half kobo.

frankiriri:

On the redenomination issue we can expect share reconstructions to be the order of the day except the government would introduce half kobo.

As long as it does not result in reducing the value of our holdings they can play with the zeros behind our currency for as much as they like!

I beg take time to read this-----http://www.businessdayonline.com/?c=45&a=15493

According to the article Nigerians have learned what to do in a bull market, but they have yet to learn what to do in a bear market. They might find out shortly

Sometimes its good to have a shot of reality injection so we can put things in perspective

crazyT:

@ Temmie, Easimoni and wanajo



If I understand you guys right, Insurance stocks are good to buy? I am having lots of Lasaco stocks and I am contemplating to drop the stocks because it's like YO-YO going up and down everyday but i just saw their year ended result and i am like, Maybe i should just hold on,

What do you guys think


LASACO ASSURANCE PLC: Audited account for the year ended Dec 31 2006. Turnover stood at N1.6 Billion as against N0.95 Billion in the comparable period of 2005. Profit Before Tax (PBT) is N225.3M for 2006 compared with N177.5M in 2005, Profit after Tax for 2006 stood at N171.5M, compared with N141.3M in the comparable period of 2005

A lot depend on your personality. Lassaco comes highly recommended by most brokers but sorry, I will not buy. Simply because they are not a major player in that industry. I personally go for stocks that are LEADERS in their area of operation or aspiring leaders. Alternatively, if they have a niche market in the sector then I will take a look. Lassaco to me has none of that.

Personally, I love UNIC. They are market leader in health insurance. Also, the've cleaned up their books based on 2005 result. Yet to see the 2006 result. Bought the IPO (1.10) which was grossly undersubscribed like most of the insurance offers.

NEM also is very good but knowing that I rejected the rights at 56k, will not feel emotionally good buying it now.

WAPIC and Crusader are going to  be major players. WAPIC has the advantage of having a bank behind it.

AIICo appears cheap based on current valuation but I need to see their annual report. So many abracadabra of recent.

if onle LEADWAY is quoted. That would have been the ONLY insurance stock for me!

bug79x:

sure just saw that unaudited result. lasaco 560m with about 1.176bill out.shares.
better hold on to that stock

fi-le!

I hate to spoil the party but Lasaco's po last year was supposed to raise 4.4 billion shares so there is no way they have 1.176 billion shares.
check http://www.lasacoassurance.com/prospectus.pdf
if u factor the extra shares, then its not as attractive but still decent compared to the industry.

@ easimoni, ur help is greatly appreciated as always .
temmie10, i think ur right, this insurance sector is funny, im sure there will be a boom in the next few months so i think ill go for a two way split between crusader and wapic .
however, from csls report, these are some price projections of some insurance companies though i dont know what kind of valuation tchnique was used.
lasaco- 4.20k
m benefits-5.50k
sovereign trust-5.04k
wapic- 10.99k
just thought this might help.

Can anyone confirm if Investment & Allied Insurance Company PLC, formerly Milverton Insurance Co Ltd is currently having a private placement.

Temmie10, easimoni, frankriri and others pls respond.

Is this a buy or not??

Company Profile
• Investment & Allied Insurance Company PLC, formerly Milverton Insurance Co Ltd was incorporated and licensed to transact all classes of Insurance business except life. There was a management buyout on the company in 1993, when it started witnessing a modest growth.
• It was recapitalized to N200 million recently to enable it enhance its position in the market place.
• The company’s issues and fully paid share capital is made up of 100million shares of N2.00 each

Directors’ interests as at June 2006
Shareholder No. of Shares % holding
Abayomi Disu 10,000,000 10%
Funmi Ademosun 25,500,000 25.5%
Tony Ubogu 25,500,000 25.5%
Akin Oladeji 10,000,000 10%
Other Investors 29,000,000 29%
100,000,000 100%


Historical Performance and Ratios
• The company’s business, measured by Gross Premium has been volatile over the last four years. It grew at a CAGR of 24.3% over three years to N27.2 million from 2001 to 2004, but declined massively by 117.5% to N40.1 million in 2005.

• However, net profit grew at a CAGR of 21.58% to N20.26 million in 2005.

• Despite the loss in business occasioned by a drop in topline, earnings quality has been commendable as net profit margin steadily improved over a four year-period from 20.3% in 2001 to 50.5% in 2005.

• Company assets have grown at a CAGR of 29.7% to N297.5 million in four years

• Similarly, Shareholders’ funds grew by 33.6% on a CAGR basis to N282.4 million over four years to 2005.

Company Strategy
• In a bid to grow its business, the company plans to expand operations to other countries within the West African sub region.

• Its recapitalization strategy involves raising N2 billion via a private placement, with a view to having foreign equity investment during the placement

• The recapitalization strategy includes acquisition and/or merger with other insurance companies to enable it achieve up to a minimum of N3 billion in shareholders’ equity.

Valuation
• Based on the company’s result as at December 31 2005, we arrived at fair value ranging between N2.34 and N2.55 for a share in the company based on our Discounted Dividend Model (DDM) analysis.


• Trailing P/E Multiple of 10.5 is a discount to a sector average of 28x.

• Also, its trailing P/B Multiple of 0.74x is a discount to an average of 2.9x

Our Opinion
• We maintain that the company is fairly valued at the offer price. However, we emphasize that the conclusions reached were based on its most recent financial performance up to December 2005.
• The nominal value of the company’s shares is N2.00, which makes the offer price N0.53 assuming the nominal value of the shares is 50kobo. This will also result is a fair value ranging between N0.59 and N0.64.

I bought first bank share last year september, but i was told by my broker that i'm not entitle to the 1 for 1 bonus, Can someone please shed some light on this issue, Cos I'm about to rock the boat with him,

Please everybody!!!
What are ur views on sovereign trust?
i bought into them big time, but they've not been doing well, should i run for my dear life or hang on?
Your views will be appreciated.

felo12:

I bought first bank share last year september, but i was told by my broker that i'm not entitle to the 1 for 1 bonus, Can someone please shed some light on this issue, Cos I'm about to rock the boat with him,

What price did you buy the first bank shares then?

@ felo12.

I think first bank closed their register sometime in August (can't really remember), if it is after the closure that you bought it, your stockbroker is right! Don't worry you are entitled to the recent 1 for 6.

I have set-up a spreed -sheet to monitor the insurance stocks, that is where you will be able to make the next big killing in the stock market. But it is very volatile, going up & down, i just want to monitor it for 6 weeks then decide if its really worth investing in it. if I venture to invest, i will not buy ins stock on ipo, i will go to the secondrary market.

@know all

my guy by now u should know that Business, real estate and stocks are the best things to get you money.

By the time you are ready to start buying you could have already lost money. the best time to buy is now.
get a stockbroker and start trading.

@Temmie10,
Thanks for ur responce, i bought it at N42.70k/unit



@Texas 543,
The 1 for 6 is sorted, Thanks

hello guys,has anyone receive his dunlop and trancorp share certificate.I am yet to receive mine.hope to hear from u guys.

@ Jesu Seun,
sorry I don't have an answer to ur question. But I noticed from your signature that u are a "fountaineer". How's Pastor Tee these days? Used to attend when I lived in gbagada.

Easi: Just sent you an email. Its about a rogue access report, which CSL are now denouncing and have dismissed the so called rogue analyst.

Taken: Try www.investopedia.com

Should I sell my WEMA?

It is always flunctuating ever since I boutght.


Does anyone here have a good advice?

easimoni, frankiriri, wanajo, shigidi et al.

I've been learning a lot from your contributions on the forum. I've not been an active investor but this forum has awakened my mind.I currently have a portfolio of about N1.2m all from IPOs (Oceanic, Prudent (now Skybank), and First Bank). I have about N1m to invest now can you advise on what stocks to go for? I'm currently looking at Access Bank's IPO but I'm open to informed advices.


I'm really investing time and effort studying on investment (investopedia.com and Warren Buffet's book) so hopefully will soon be able assess stocks well but I need all your kind help while I'm still "crawling" before I fully learn how to walk and soon run!

Thanks all in advance.

Omoba3:

Easi: Just sent you an email. Its about a rogue access report, which CSL are now denouncing and have dismissed the so called rogue analyst.

@Omoba3

Is this the report you are refering to? This is posted on another thread on Nairaland but seems to have come from ARM. I am getting concerned and may still be able to stop my Access PO purchase. Please share your report if it is different so we are all informed. Thanks!

https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-57763.64.html

Jairzinho (m)
FRN
Posts: 29

Offline

 Re: Access Bank Offer @n14.90k - Would You Invest?
« #94 on: Today at 05:18:14 PM »  

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Got this on e-mail,

ACCESS BANK

INVESTMENT RISKS (To the Price Target/Recommendati on)

Financial Shenanigans: The bank is alleged to be “cooking the books” in its desperate
quest to tell a particular story and to attract investors to its offer and raise its status within
the banking industry in Nigeria and its subsequent appeal to foreign and domestic
investors. The bank received a “qualified” annual report due to the way it handled the
goodwill on its books. We adjusted their post-tax profit downward to reflect this
contravention of accounting standards. We are also highly concerned as to how the bank
was able to almost double its post-tax profit (88.33%) from its nine-month cumulative
result to the full-year result (N3.23 billion to N6.083 billion.) The bank has not yet been
able to explain this till date and we feel that yet to be fully ascertained maneuvers were
utilized to generate this sudden turnaround.

The Audit Committee of Access Bank is not a standing committee and has the Managing
Director and the Deputy Managing Director as members! This is totally out of line and
proves further that the “maneuvering” starts at the top.

We have reviewed quite a couple of company forecasts and we are amazed and alarmed
at the extent of the unwarranted optimism expressed by the company given its forecasts.
In addition, the reporting accountants emphasize that “the forecast information is not
intended to, and does not, provide all the information and disclosures necessary to give a
fair presentation of the results of the operations of the Bank in accordance with Nigerian
Statements of Accounting Standards” – PwC.

Market price manipulation: Access Bank’s price suddenly took an aggressive spike
two months to its date of suspension moving from N11.69 to N19.32 (a rise of 65.26%), a
move unprecedented given the time frame, ignoring the artificial increase of 100% due to
the share reconstruction. We believe the sudden steep price movement soon before the
technical suspension was placed is not due to “random” market forces but the bank and
its cronies buying up their shares in excess of the daily supply.

Reckless business decisions: The management of the bank has in the recent past
taken some reckless decisions in their quest to grow inorganically. These acts brought
losses to the bank and its shareholders; the bank last year tried unsuccessfully to acquire
Afribank through a hostile takeover. The bank was forced by the regulatory authorities to
sell the acquired shares at a loss. The bank also tried unsuccessfully to buy up Union
Bank. Access Bank management is definitely not comfortable with their current position
in the Nigerian banking industry; this is a good thing. The approaches they are willing to
take to become BIG overnight is what should give potential investors sleepless nights.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This message contains confidential information and is intended only for the individual named. If you are not the named addressee you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this e-mail. Please notify the sender immediately by e-mail if you have received this e-mail by mistake and delete this e-mail from your system. E-mail transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure or error-free as information could be intercepted, corrupted, lost, destroyed, arrive late or incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message, which arise as a result of e-mail transmission. If verification is required please request a hard-copy version.
The information herein represents the views of ARM Investment Managers and its subsidiary company, ARM Trustees Limited, on asset management, financial advisory and trusteeship services. ARM and its subsidiary are regulated by the Nigerian Securities & Exchange Commission.The registered office of ARM is at 1 Mekunwen Street , Off Oyinkan Abayomi, P.O. Box 55765 , Ikoyi, Lagos . Telephone: 234 -1-2692097, 2692976. www.arm.com. ng

NBA: This report is from CSL.

This is CSL distancing themselves from it and also the analyst:

August 15, 2007



DEAR VALUED READER



RE: EQUITY REPORT ON ACCESS BANK PLC



We write to withdraw the Equity Research Publication dated 14 th August 2007 prepared by Jude Fejokwu and published without the authorization of CSL Stockbrokers Limited.



The contents of the report are incorrect, unfounded and without basis. Indeed the entire report is entirely attributable to the writer and in the professional opinion of CSL Stockbrokers does not represent in any way the true position of affairs of Access Bank Plc. We urge you to please disregard the report in its entirety.



CSL Stockbrokers Limited admits regrettably that the report was not vetted or reviewed in line with our internal practice before publication by the writer. This unfortunate breakdown has brought significant embarrassment to our firm's reputation built over several years.



Our institution is particularly embarrassed as Access Bank Plc is a prized client for CSL Stockbrokers Limited and indeed the entire FCMB Group.



FCMB Capital Market is one of the Issuing Houses/Underwriters and CSL Stockbrokers is a stockbroker to Access Bank's on-going successful public offer. Our Group endorses totally the credibility of the Bank, its Board of Directors and Management Team and will in no way allow their exemplary efforts at establishing a First Class Bank to be diminished by a "rogue" analyst.



The said analyst has since been summarily dismissed from the employment of CSL and steps will be taken to ensure that there is no re-occurrence of this unfortunate event.



We have and continue to apologize to the Bank and all its shareholders for our mistake. The correct report on Access Bank Plc will be published within the current week.



Once again we regret any inconvenience caused by this report.



Thank you.

@Omoba3

Thanks for the response. Na wa for Naija! I am concerned about this and interesting CSL is going to issue it's report towards the end of the PO, when loads of people are already committed??

I will like to congratulate all Chelsea fans in Nigeria for the narrow winning we have been encounter this day,but by the special grace of God we won the league at the end of the season.
UP CHELSEA,
UP ABRAHAMOVIC,
UP JOSE MORINHO
UP BLUES.

Y'all
Something doesn't add up here.

NBA's attachment purportedly to be from ARM is actually a subsection from the CSL report uploaded by Omoba3.

So, Is ARM and CSL ( or whoever authored the analysis) in some connivance in this issue?

Whatever be the case, they have 'spoilt my mind' towards the Access bank offer. I wanted to pick up some shares, but now I don't think I want to go ahead.

What y'all think?

, By the way, this is not a football fan-club thread. We all mean business here. Just for the jerks.

@ all,
What dyu all think about the idea of purchasing some Nairas ahead of the anticipated increase in price?

@ Temmie, Easimoni and wanajo and others who contributed one way or the other to my LASACO question



Big Thanks to you all!!!

I think from the way Easimoni has drummed the idea into my head I'll still hold on to it.

I bought about 200k units @ 1.80 about 2 months ago (or thereabout), so if it goes to 15 Naira (before November) the way Easimoni put it; Na im bi say I don hit jackpot bi that o