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Politics / Re: IMF: Nigeria’s Economic Growth To Slow by 4Play(m): 8:45am On Jul 27, 2023
seunmsg:


We’ve been doing phase removal of subsidy since 1999 and we never got to remove it fully until Tinubu came in. The problem with removing subsidy is not whether it should be gradual or at once but our willingness to allow market forces determine the price.

Labour fully accepted the removal of subsidy when price was moved to N537. Now that market forces have pushed the price above N600, they want to go on strike. Do we need anybody to explain to Labour leader that forcing government to bring down the price is a return to subsidy?

But now the government is considering costly palliatives and there is even talk of increasing public sector wages. If you are going to spend N500bn on palliatives, you might as well commit to spending only N500bn on subsidy.

You have to remember that the ultimate objective of economic policy is promoting economic prosperity. Market-determined prices are a means to an end, not the end in itself.

I suspect most African countries have market-determined fuel prices. But they have no prosperity.

The increase in inflation, at the same time that the currency is under pressure, will mean that most people will experience worsening poverty amplifying social instability and it will make it less likely that the government can follow through with more needed reforms because it's spent so much political capital for little apparent (to the average Nigerian) benefit.

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Politics / Re: IMF: Nigeria’s Economic Growth To Slow by 4Play(m): 8:06am On Jul 27, 2023
TheBillyonaire:


They monitor every economy now, not just those that seek lending, boy.

Spying for the highest bidder.

It's the IMF's role to monitor and give advice to all countries. They give advice to the US, UK, Germany, China, etc.

No country needs to take their advice but analysing economic policies and providing recommendations is part and parcel of their function.
Politics / Re: IMF: Nigeria’s Economic Growth To Slow by 4Play(m): 7:49am On Jul 27, 2023
nedu666:


Define short and long term using number of years

I will say around 10 years.

After the initial shock of a change in the price level of petrol, future changes will happen at a slower rate so living standards will adjust better. In the meantime, the money used in subsidizing petrol will be put to better use even if some of it is embezzled which happens with subsidy money anyway.

I would have preferred that the removal is done gradually to mitigate the impact on Nigerians but better it be removed than not all.
Politics / Re: IMF: Nigeria’s Economic Growth To Slow by 4Play(m): 6:09pm On Jul 26, 2023
inoki247:
Is like IMF are on drugs after telling us to remove Subsidy remove this and that we don remove now they're still yarning jargons...

Removing subsidy should have long-term positive impacts but will be painful in the short-term. Personally, I would have preferred a gradual phasing out of subsidy but it's better to remove it than to leave it in place.

2 Likes 1 Share

Politics / IMF: Nigeria’s Economic Growth To Slow by 4Play(m): 5:53pm On Jul 26, 2023
The International Monetary Fund has projected that Nigeria’s economic growth will decline in 2023 and 2024 due to security issues in the oil sector.

It stated that the country’s economy would grow at 3.2 per cent in 2023, before declining to 3.0 per cent in 2024.

The IMF disclosed this in its latest ‘World Economic Outlook Update: Near-Term Resilience, Persistent Challenges (July 2023)’ report.

Nigeria’s growth is below projections for the Sub-Saharan African region which is expected to grow by 3.5 per cent in 2023 and 4.1 per cent in 2024, according to the report.

https://punchng.com/insecurity-will-slow-nigerias-growth-says-imf/

1 Like

Politics / Re: Confiscation Order: Ibori Can Appeal To Higher Courts In UK — Sagay by 4Play(m): 3:21pm On Jul 22, 2023
The pertinent question is how is someone who was thieving from a UK store in the 1990s suddenly so rich?

Sure, he can appeal but how did he come about his wealth?
Politics / Re: Gunmen Kill 20, Burn Several Houses In Plateau Communities by 4Play(m): 10:50pm On Jun 21, 2023
LagosFirstSon:
The killing continued because Tinubu promised to continue from where Buhari stopped

This is a stupid take. Fulani killings have been going on long before Buhari and are actually widespread across West and Central Africa. It doesn't matter who you have as president.

What the president can do is significantly increase the size of the military and police, in addition to providing them with the equipmen, to combat this insecurity.

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Politics / Re: TINUBUNOMICS: Naira Depreciates By 16% To N770.38/$ by 4Play(m): 10:17pm On Jun 21, 2023
grandstar:


Why the crash? Should the CBN defend the Naira? Should a new competent CBN head, preferably a western trained economist be appointed? Or is this Naira Shock therapy?

Edit: I chose to re-read the article and it provided reasons for the problem. The revelation here is that there was simply pent up demand for forex, a massive overhang from the Emefiele era. The CBN might need to increase supply of dollars to the market to cool it down.

Would an increase in interest rates by the CBN cool it down, or should the Naira be allowed to find its true value no matter how low it goes?


I think people should worry less about the naira losing value, unless it's falling dramatically. A gradual decline to N1000 to $1 over the next 4 years doesn't worry me. If it happens within months, that will be troubling.

In the long run and given high inflation in Nigeria, naira will continue depreciating unless we overcome the inflation problem. We will need higher interest rates and restraints on fiscal spending to conquer inflation. Unfortunately, we will have go backwards to go forward but we need to be a bit cautious.

It's why I am worried about taking off fuel subsidy immediately instead of my preferred gradual elimination. There is only so much pain Nigerians can endure in such a short duration and you risk replaying the Russian/ex-Soviet states situation of the 1990s when market-led reforms at the end of the communist era were rushed through causing extreme poverty and financial crises and discrediting the reform process.
Politics / Re: TINUBUNOMICS: Naira Depreciates By 16% To N770.38/$ by 4Play(m): 2:01pm On Jun 20, 2023
CodeTemplar:
Wonderful. I hope it comes down as economists have predicted.

In the long run, the naira will continue to fall until we get inflation well under control.

The Tinubu propagandists should have held off on talking about naira strength as this is not well founded.

1 Like

Politics / Is Dozy Mmobuosi A Fraud? by 4Play(m): 3:18pm On Jun 06, 2023
The Nigerian "billionaire" who tried to buy Sheffield United is accused of being a fraudster in a new research report published today:

https://hindenburgresearch.com/tingo/

We are short Tingo Group Inc (NASDAQ:TIO) because we believe the company is an exceptionally obvious scam with completely fabricated financials.

Tingo, headquartered in New Jersey, claims to have several business segments focused on providing mobile phones, food processing and an online food marketplace for farmers primarily located in Nigeria

Tingo was founded and is spearheaded by “Dozy” Mmobuosi, CEO of the key holding company entity. Dozy is regularly described by the media as a billionaire and made waves earlier this year when he attempted to acquire the now-Premier League soccer team Sheffield United.

We’ve identified major red flags with Dozy’s background. For starters, he appears to have fabricated his biographical claim to have developed the first mobile payment app in Nigeria. We contacted the app’s actual creator, who called Dozy’s claims “a pure lie”.
Dozy claimed to have received a PhD in rural advancement from a Malaysian university in 2007. We contacted the school to verify the degree. They wrote back saying no one by his name was found in their verification system.

In 2017, Dozy was arrested and faced an 8-count indictment over issuance of bad checks, according to the Nigerian Economic and Financial Crimes Commission. He later settled the case in arbitration.

In 2019, Dozy claimed to have launched “Tingo Airlines” and posted social media messages encouraging customers to “fly with Tingo Airlines today”. Media outlets later uncovered that Tingo had photoshopped its logo onto pictures of airplanes. Dozy later admitted to never owning any actual aircraft.

We strongly suspect Tingo’s cash balance, which it conveniently claims is held in Nigeria, is fake. The company collected only ~12% of the interest income one would expect from its claimed cash balances.

Overall, we think Tingo is a worthless and brazen fraud that should serve as a humiliating embarrassment for all involved. We do not expect the company will be long for this world

3 Likes

Politics / Re: Seun Osewa Thought On Minimum Wage on twitter that got people talking! by 4Play(m): 2:22pm On Jun 03, 2023
IamV:
Seun Osewa,the owner of nairaland opinion on the increase of minimum wage in respect to the increase in fuel price on twitter today got many talking .
Here's his opinion on increasing the minimum wage ;


If I may ask,what do you think about his opinion on this issue?

He is on the right track. 99% of Nigerians are not civil servants or related to civil servants.

The average Nigerian is a rural dweller, living on subsistence farming, cattle herding or fishing. They don't have time or even access to Twitter or much of the internet. Nobody speaks for them or tries to change govt policy to benefit them (I believe subsidy for kerosene was removed years ago to virtual silence from Nigerians).

The government should aim to improve the quality of life for the average Nigerian, not the vocal urban/city dwellers who frequent places like Nairaland and Twitter. To this end, carefully targeted palliatives would be useful. They can even use the money to pay for healthcare access or access to primary and secondary education (maybe aim for free education up to SS3 level) improving health and human capital.

If civil servants feel that working for the government is uniquely bad, they can try a different line of work.

Nigeria can't afford another big increase in recurrent expenditure to pay higher civil servant wages. It is disingenuous to suggest that the way to provide welfare aid to reduce poverty in Nigeria is by increasing civil service pay when civil servants are arguably already better off than most Nigerians. That's why people pay bribes to be hired as civil servants!
Politics / Re: In Case You Don't Know The Root Cause Of Our Problems Today by 4Play(m): 7:08am On Jun 02, 2023
No need for long explanation. There was an oil boom in the 1970s which made the overall economy buoyant except for export (non-oil) sectors of the economy like agriculture.

Once the oil boom ended from 1980, and almost solely dependent on oil for exports, the whole economy went into a significant slump.

3 Likes

Politics / Re: BREAKING: TinuBULL As Nigerian Stocks Post 5.2% Gain After Inauguration Speech by 4Play(m): 6:39pm On May 30, 2023
That's an impressive response even if it's just one day yet. Fuel subsidy removal will cause a lot of short-term hardship and I would have preferred a gradual phasing out but in the long run, it's a step in the right direction.

1 Like

Politics / Re: Subsidy Removal Won’t Take Immediate Effect - Tinubu Clarifies by 4Play(m): 4:46pm On May 30, 2023
If this u-turn story is accurate, spare a thought for his supporters who argued yesterday that the immediacy of the subsidy removal was unavoidable.

Now they have to spin the postponement as another evidence of Tinubu's earth-shattering sagacity and wisdom.

64 Likes 6 Shares

Politics / Re: Racism, Xenophobia And Tribalism | Nigerians And Double Standards by 4Play(m): 6:43pm On May 27, 2023
Nigerians resent racism against blacks in the same way ISIS or Al Qaeda resent discrimination against Muslims or the KKK resent discrimination against whites.

In other words, we are not against prejudice and discrimination in principle, we are just against being at the receiving end of it.
Politics / Re: Buhari’s People Are Not Making Things Easier For His Successor, Nigerians - Sani by 4Play(m): 12:59pm On May 24, 2023
It will be silly if Tinubu and his defenders start blaming Buhari in a few months for disappointment with the new government when Tinubu was partly responsible for Buhari being in power.

Having benefited from supporting Buhari to further his personal ambitions, the negative fallout from Buhari's ineptitude have to be taken as the logical consequences of his support.

14 Likes 2 Shares

Politics / Re: Is The CBN Governor Really Responsible For Weakening Of The Naira? by 4Play(m): 3:05pm On May 20, 2023
Tianamen1:
My original post tried to explain the interplay between the fiscal policies of the federal government and the monetary policies of the CBN.

4play, I like your first statement that this situation is too complicated for a nairaland post.

I forgot about this too as the CBN's lending to the government is something that is a bit murky and I don't know if it has the legal powers to refuse.

As you indicate, FG's spending fuels inflation. Inflation makes holding naira unattractive, which is why higher interest rates are needed, and creates additional demand for forex (the more naira supply is created, the more naira is used to purchase forex). By printing naira, lending to the government, and not imposing much higher interest rates, the CBN was facilitating the forces causing naira depreciation.

2 Likes

Politics / Re: Is The CBN Governor Really Responsible For Weakening Of The Naira? by 4Play(m): 2:47pm On May 20, 2023
This is a topic that is too complex to be properly addressed in a Nairaland post but I will summarise my views.

At heart, naira depreciation reflects an imbalance between the supply and demand for foreign currency (forex) in Nigeria. So, in theory, naira depreciation can be reversed or at least curtailed if the supply of forex is improved and demand is curbed. Another way of looking at it is to increase supply way faster than demand growth.

I don't think any CBN governor would have stopped the naira's collapse from 2014 following the oil price decline that started that year. Oil revenues are obviously our main source of forex inflows via exports. Foreign direct investment into the oil and gas sector also brings in forex. In addition, foreign investor confidence (a key driver of portfolio inflows) also aligns with the strength of the oil sector, i.e, when oil prices are high, investors are keener to invest due to the stimulative effect it has on the general economy. So there is a host of reasons/policies, outside the CBN's remit, primarily centered on boosting non-oil exports and foreign investment into Nigeria that would have unchained the dependence of the Naira on the buoyancy of oil prices.

In addition to the above, currencies follow a self-reinforcing cycle. Once a currency starts to significantly depreciate (due to oil price decline in our case), people/investors want to sell the currency.

So the above factors suggest naira was going to decline no matter what once oil prices started falling in 2014.

That all being said, the CBN governor made a bad situation even worse in 3 key respects. The most important is his fixed exchange rate which kept the naira artificially pegged at an unrealistic level. To illustrate, why would a foreign investor bring in funds to invest when, at the official rate, he will get less for his currency than he would get at the market rate? Supposing you assessed that a cement plant at a certain output level will cost you N440bn to build in Nigeria, at the official CBN rate you will need to invest circa $1bn. At the actual (market rate), you will only need $600m. So the fixed official rate acts as a disincentive. This also applies to export revenue, why export from Nigeria and get less in naira at the official rate than you could get at the market rate.

The second way the CBN screwed up is by suppressing or trying to suppress demand by restricting access to forex. This damaged investor confidence again as such policy interventions dissuade foreign investors from bringing in forex into the country in the first place. If you know or suspect you will struggle to access forex in Nigeria, you will think twice about bringing it in in the first place.

The last important error for me is that the level of interest rate that the CBN set is too low given the high level of inflation. When the purchasing power of your currency is falling in your own country, investors need high interest rates to compensate them for holding naira. If you give me interest rates of +30% per year, I will be prepared to hold naira bank deposits/naira bonds. Otherwise, inflation and currency depreciation makes holding naira assets unattractive.

This in a nutshell summarises the naira debacle. It's not simply the CBN governor (a different governor under a Buhari government would likely adopt the same policies) but the governor has worsened an already bad situation.

4 Likes 1 Share

Politics / Yemi Mobolade Elected Mayor Of Colorado Springs by 4Play(m): 6:00am On May 17, 2023
Yemi Mobolade, a Nigerian immigrant and businessman with no political experience, will be the first elected Black mayor of Colorado Springs after he defeated Wayne Williams on Tuesday night in the city’s runoff contest.

Mobolade had received 57% of the vote to Williams’ 43% as of 7:15 p.m. Tuesday. Williams conceded at about 7:30 p.m. When the second batch of results was released shortly before 9 p.m., the percentages hadn’t shifted.

Mobolade will succeed Mayor John Suthers, a former federal prosecutor and Colorado attorney general who was term-limited, to become the city’s 42nd mayor.

Mobolade’s decisive victory represents a political earthquake in Colorado Springs, long known as a conservative stronghold. Williams is a Republican while Mobolade is unaffiliated.

Just a few years ago it would be hard to imagine someone other than a Republican leading the city. But cracks in Colorado Springs’ GOP streak have shown in recent years. In the November election, Democratic Gov. Jared Polis came within 4 percentage points of his GOP challenger, University of Colorado Regent Heidi Ganahl, in El Paso County. Several Democrats won state legislative seats in and around the city.

“Wow,” an incredulous Mobolade said to kick off his victory speech. “Wow. Wow. I am speechless.”

Mobolade, a married father of three, moved to Colorado Springs in 2010 and quickly became a leader in the business community. He cofounded two popular restaurants — The Wild Goose Meeting House and Good Neighbors Meeting House — in Colorado’s second-largest city and served as its small business development administrator. He was also the vice president of business retention and expansion for the Colorado Springs Chamber and Economic Development Corporation.

https://coloradosun.com/2023/05/16/yemi-mobolade-colorado-springs-mayor/

1 Like

Politics / Re: The Most Popular Airport In London Is Owned By A Yoruba Man by 4Play(m): 1:12pm On May 14, 2023
I suspect if Mr Ogunlesi sees this claim that he owns airports, he will feel very embarrassed.

1 Like 1 Share

Politics / Re: Rising Ethnic Tension Between Hausa And Fulani By Farooq A. Kperogi by 4Play(m): 11:50am On May 06, 2023
I think these are transitory, spur-of-the-moment tensile pushes and pulls that may soon abate, but it’s astonishing that it’s even happening.

This part is wishful thinking. This is only the beginning.

Factors that will drive more conflict across Nigeria include: Climate change with its impact on desertification which deprives herdsmen and farmers of arable land and water resources, and the growth in youth population which generates lots of young men with few economic opportunities.

Expect more conflicts not less in the immediate future.

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Politics / Re: Prof Ike Ekweremadu: Every Nigerian Should Be Ashamed by 4Play(m): 9:39am On May 06, 2023
You are obfuscating with appeals to sentiment. He did the crime and has to live with the consequences. If a British politician does same in Nigeria (very unlikely), we should mete out similar punishment.
Politics / Re: Why Are There So Many Tribes In Africa? by 4Play(m): 9:27pm On May 02, 2023
Humans originated from Africa before migrating to other continents so it makes sense that the "mother continent" has a lot more demographic diversity.

1 Like

Politics / Re: Buhari Lays ‘booby Traps’ For Incoming Government; By Punch Editorial Board by 4Play(m): 8:08am On May 02, 2023
The decision to postpone subsidy removal and at the same time commence salary increase implementation seem like attempts to sabotage the new administration before it's taken office.

Not that Tinubu personally cares. If anything, his supporters will use Buhari's ineptitude as propaganda in future to make excuses for him.

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Politics / Re: Check Out A Beautiful Scenery Of Onitsha That Is Trending Online by 4Play(m): 5:49pm On May 01, 2023
Lanretoye:
It is Europe,dey fool yourself.

You saw people standing in front of open gutters and concluded this is in Europe?
Politics / Re: WFP: 1 In 8 Nigerians Facing Acute Hunger by 4Play(m): 4:28pm On May 01, 2023
MXrep:
North

They referred to 26 states and Abuja so it's not just the North though the most serious are the Northern states.

An earlier report from UNICEF highlights some reasons:

Children are the most vulnerable to food insecurity. Approximately 6 of the 17 million food-insecure Nigerians today are children under 5 living in Borno, Adamawa, Yobe, Sokoto, Katsina and Zamfara states. There is a serious risk of mortality among children attributed to acute malnutrition. In the BAY states alone, the number of children suffering from acute malnutrition is expected to increase from 1.74 million in 2022 to 2 million in 2023.

UNICEF, working with the government and partners such as MSF and ALIMA, is investing in scaling up preventive nutrition interventions, while ensuring that vulnerable children have access to life-saving nutrition services. In 2022, UNICEF with partners was able to reach approximately 650,000 children with life-saving nutrition services across the six states mentioned above.

The northwest region, around Katsina, Zamfara and Sokoto states, is an increasing food insecurity and malnutrition hotspot. An estimated 2.9 million people are currently critically food insecure (Cadre Harmonisé Phase 3 or worse.) This figure is projected to increase to 4.3 million in the lean season if urgent action is not taken.

https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/25-million-nigerians-high-risk-food-insecurity-2023
Politics / WFP: 1 In 8 Nigerians Facing Acute Hunger by 4Play(m): 4:20pm On May 01, 2023
THE United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has raised the alarm that one out of eight Nigerians, representing 24.8 million people, are facing acute hunger this year.

This is contained in a statement released on Saturday, April 29 in Abuja by the WFP head of Communications, Advocacy and Marketing in Nigeria, Chi Lael.

Lael disclosed that the agency, to address the urgent needs of those affected by conflict and in dire need of humanitarian aid in the North-east, was ramping up efforts to provide emergency food and nutrition assistance to 2.1 million people.

Part of the statement read, “WFP is gravely concerned that years of armed conflict in North-east Nigeria is driving hunger and malnutrition, with millions in need of life-saving assistance and facing the risk of famine.”

The WFP projected that Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states would witness severe hunger during the peak of the lean season between June and August 2023, with 4.3 million people being affected, and almost 600,000 on the brink of catastrophe.

https://www.icirnigeria.org/24-8m-nigerians-facing-acute-hunger-in-26-states-un/
Politics / Re: N300 To 1$ - Nigeria Will Be Great Again by 4Play(m): 6:43am On Apr 28, 2023
richmond500:
You are really bad in economics.
With Nigerian owned refinery in full operation and stoppage of subsidy.
It is obvious the naira will rise a bit

To my knowledge, the Kaduna refinery was commissioned in 1980 and the second Port Harcourt refinery in 1989. What happened to naira from 1980 to 1990?

According to this website, it went from 55 kobo for $1 in 1980 to N8.04 to $1 in 1990: https://www.bbc.com/pidgin/tori-58535028. In present day terms, this is like going from a dollar exchange rate of N700 to N10,000.00!

Of course, the economy of the 1980s was different but the point is that the import substitution premise that lies behind the argument that local refinery production will lead to stronger naira can be misleading.

4 Likes 1 Share

Politics / Re: N300 To 1$ - Nigeria Will Be Great Again by 4Play(m): 6:20am On Apr 28, 2023
nnewsnjobs:
Tomorrow now, Tinubu will say that he didn't give such promise.

#300 to $1, if he can achieve this, then I will give him my full respect.

Until then.

Tinubu that was running away from interview so that he will not go they and make any promises.
The only promise he made was student loan and recruitment of youth into the army. Outside that I didn't see any promise from him.

He thinks that he is wise by not given any promises.
We will assess him by checking the prices of good and services, dollar exchange rate and so many other indices when Buhari left office and compare it after one, two or four years of his administration to know how he is performing.
Promises or not, we know how to assess him.

Actually, not making the sort of promises customary to Nigerian presidential candidates is a sign of sound judgement.

The persons looking for or promising naira appreciation are economic illiterates and are not doing Tinubu any favors if he hasn't promised such. We will see in a few years.

4 Likes

Politics / Re: N300 To 1$ - Nigeria Will Be Great Again by 4Play(m): 6:09am On Apr 28, 2023
richmond500:

Our major problem is the money we spend on oil, $10b just for subsidy and the cost of refinning our crude and importing it back to Nigeria, you know how much be that?
And Dangote said he will be selling his oil in Naira to other countries.

Without trying if we can take the excesses we spend on oil, we can bring the dollar to N300.
That will revamp our economy and give rise to foreign investments.
N200 to a dollar is feasible in the next 4yrs if we focus on insecurity and oil.

Forget the huge debt weh Asiwaju inherit from Buhari, his administration has lots of advantage

The delusion is strong here.

2 Likes

Politics / Re: As Bad As It Is Nigeria Of 2021 Will Be A Paradise Compared To Nigeria Of 2041 by 4Play(m): 12:39pm On Apr 26, 2023
tensazangetsu20:


How much you willing to wager. In two years time, people will miss buhari.

I don't disagree that people will miss Buhari but some of the reasons will be for things outside Tinubu's control.

For one, he has to remove or at least pare down fuel subsidy. That will cause a heavy blow to people's living standards.

He has to figure out a way of managing government debt (less/restrained spending) and widening the tax base. Again, these come with high short-term pain.

On the insecurity side, that will continue as an explosion in youth population and the desertification (due to climate change) that pushes Fulani herdsmen down South will lead to continued clashes.

Everything is set for more misery not because Tinubu is necessarily inept but partly because the Buhari government he supported and helped enthron has given him a bunch of ticking time bombs.

1 Like

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