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Politics / Re: Buhari’s People Are Not Making Things Easier For His Successor, Nigerians - Sani by 4Play(m): 12:59pm On May 24, 2023 |
It will be silly if Tinubu and his defenders start blaming Buhari in a few months for disappointment with the new government when Tinubu was partly responsible for Buhari being in power. Having benefited from supporting Buhari to further his personal ambitions, the negative fallout from Buhari's ineptitude have to be taken as the logical consequences of his support. 14 Likes 2 Shares |
Politics / Re: Is The CBN Governor Really Responsible For Weakening Of The Naira? by 4Play(m): 3:05pm On May 20, 2023 |
Tianamen1: I forgot about this too as the CBN's lending to the government is something that is a bit murky and I don't know if it has the legal powers to refuse. As you indicate, FG's spending fuels inflation. Inflation makes holding naira unattractive, which is why higher interest rates are needed, and creates additional demand for forex (the more naira supply is created, the more naira is used to purchase forex). By printing naira, lending to the government, and not imposing much higher interest rates, the CBN was facilitating the forces causing naira depreciation. 2 Likes |
Politics / Re: Is The CBN Governor Really Responsible For Weakening Of The Naira? by 4Play(m): 2:47pm On May 20, 2023 |
This is a topic that is too complex to be properly addressed in a Nairaland post but I will summarise my views. At heart, naira depreciation reflects an imbalance between the supply and demand for foreign currency (forex) in Nigeria. So, in theory, naira depreciation can be reversed or at least curtailed if the supply of forex is improved and demand is curbed. Another way of looking at it is to increase supply way faster than demand growth. I don't think any CBN governor would have stopped the naira's collapse from 2014 following the oil price decline that started that year. Oil revenues are obviously our main source of forex inflows via exports. Foreign direct investment into the oil and gas sector also brings in forex. In addition, foreign investor confidence (a key driver of portfolio inflows) also aligns with the strength of the oil sector, i.e, when oil prices are high, investors are keener to invest due to the stimulative effect it has on the general economy. So there is a host of reasons/policies, outside the CBN's remit, primarily centered on boosting non-oil exports and foreign investment into Nigeria that would have unchained the dependence of the Naira on the buoyancy of oil prices. In addition to the above, currencies follow a self-reinforcing cycle. Once a currency starts to significantly depreciate (due to oil price decline in our case), people/investors want to sell the currency. So the above factors suggest naira was going to decline no matter what once oil prices started falling in 2014. That all being said, the CBN governor made a bad situation even worse in 3 key respects. The most important is his fixed exchange rate which kept the naira artificially pegged at an unrealistic level. To illustrate, why would a foreign investor bring in funds to invest when, at the official rate, he will get less for his currency than he would get at the market rate? Supposing you assessed that a cement plant at a certain output level will cost you N440bn to build in Nigeria, at the official CBN rate you will need to invest circa $1bn. At the actual (market rate), you will only need $600m. So the fixed official rate acts as a disincentive. This also applies to export revenue, why export from Nigeria and get less in naira at the official rate than you could get at the market rate. The second way the CBN screwed up is by suppressing or trying to suppress demand by restricting access to forex. This damaged investor confidence again as such policy interventions dissuade foreign investors from bringing in forex into the country in the first place. If you know or suspect you will struggle to access forex in Nigeria, you will think twice about bringing it in in the first place. The last important error for me is that the level of interest rate that the CBN set is too low given the high level of inflation. When the purchasing power of your currency is falling in your own country, investors need high interest rates to compensate them for holding naira. If you give me interest rates of +30% per year, I will be prepared to hold naira bank deposits/naira bonds. Otherwise, inflation and currency depreciation makes holding naira assets unattractive. This in a nutshell summarises the naira debacle. It's not simply the CBN governor (a different governor under a Buhari government would likely adopt the same policies) but the governor has worsened an already bad situation. 4 Likes 1 Share |
Politics / Yemi Mobolade Elected Mayor Of Colorado Springs by 4Play(m): 6:00am On May 17, 2023 |
Yemi Mobolade, a Nigerian immigrant and businessman with no political experience, will be the first elected Black mayor of Colorado Springs after he defeated Wayne Williams on Tuesday night in the city’s runoff contest. https://coloradosun.com/2023/05/16/yemi-mobolade-colorado-springs-mayor/ 1 Like
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Politics / Re: The Most Popular Airport In London Is Owned By A Yoruba Man by 4Play(m): 1:12pm On May 14, 2023 |
I suspect if Mr Ogunlesi sees this claim that he owns airports, he will feel very embarrassed. 1 Like 1 Share |
Politics / Re: Rising Ethnic Tension Between Hausa And Fulani By Farooq A. Kperogi by 4Play(m): 11:50am On May 06, 2023 |
I think these are transitory, spur-of-the-moment tensile pushes and pulls that may soon abate, but it’s astonishing that it’s even happening. This part is wishful thinking. This is only the beginning. Factors that will drive more conflict across Nigeria include: Climate change with its impact on desertification which deprives herdsmen and farmers of arable land and water resources, and the growth in youth population which generates lots of young men with few economic opportunities. Expect more conflicts not less in the immediate future. 39 Likes 3 Shares |
Politics / Re: Prof Ike Ekweremadu: Every Nigerian Should Be Ashamed by 4Play(m): 9:39am On May 06, 2023 |
You are obfuscating with appeals to sentiment. He did the crime and has to live with the consequences. If a British politician does same in Nigeria (very unlikely), we should mete out similar punishment. |
Politics / Re: Why Are There So Many Tribes In Africa? by 4Play(m): 9:27pm On May 02, 2023 |
Humans originated from Africa before migrating to other continents so it makes sense that the "mother continent" has a lot more demographic diversity. 1 Like |
Politics / Re: Buhari Lays ‘booby Traps’ For Incoming Government; By Punch Editorial Board by 4Play(m): 8:08am On May 02, 2023 |
The decision to postpone subsidy removal and at the same time commence salary increase implementation seem like attempts to sabotage the new administration before it's taken office. Not that Tinubu personally cares. If anything, his supporters will use Buhari's ineptitude as propaganda in future to make excuses for him. 67 Likes 3 Shares |
Politics / Re: Check Out A Beautiful Scenery Of Onitsha That Is Trending Online by 4Play(m): 5:49pm On May 01, 2023 |
Lanretoye: You saw people standing in front of open gutters and concluded this is in Europe? |
Politics / Re: WFP: 1 In 8 Nigerians Facing Acute Hunger by 4Play(m): 4:28pm On May 01, 2023 |
MXrep: They referred to 26 states and Abuja so it's not just the North though the most serious are the Northern states. An earlier report from UNICEF highlights some reasons: Children are the most vulnerable to food insecurity. Approximately 6 of the 17 million food-insecure Nigerians today are children under 5 living in Borno, Adamawa, Yobe, Sokoto, Katsina and Zamfara states. There is a serious risk of mortality among children attributed to acute malnutrition. In the BAY states alone, the number of children suffering from acute malnutrition is expected to increase from 1.74 million in 2022 to 2 million in 2023. https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/25-million-nigerians-high-risk-food-insecurity-2023 |
Politics / WFP: 1 In 8 Nigerians Facing Acute Hunger by 4Play(m): 4:20pm On May 01, 2023 |
THE United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has raised the alarm that one out of eight Nigerians, representing 24.8 million people, are facing acute hunger this year. https://www.icirnigeria.org/24-8m-nigerians-facing-acute-hunger-in-26-states-un/ |
Politics / Re: N300 To 1$ - Nigeria Will Be Great Again by 4Play(m): 6:43am On Apr 28, 2023 |
richmond500: To my knowledge, the Kaduna refinery was commissioned in 1980 and the second Port Harcourt refinery in 1989. What happened to naira from 1980 to 1990? According to this website, it went from 55 kobo for $1 in 1980 to N8.04 to $1 in 1990: https://www.bbc.com/pidgin/tori-58535028. In present day terms, this is like going from a dollar exchange rate of N700 to N10,000.00! Of course, the economy of the 1980s was different but the point is that the import substitution premise that lies behind the argument that local refinery production will lead to stronger naira can be misleading. 4 Likes 1 Share |
Politics / Re: N300 To 1$ - Nigeria Will Be Great Again by 4Play(m): 6:20am On Apr 28, 2023 |
nnewsnjobs: Actually, not making the sort of promises customary to Nigerian presidential candidates is a sign of sound judgement. The persons looking for or promising naira appreciation are economic illiterates and are not doing Tinubu any favors if he hasn't promised such. We will see in a few years. 4 Likes |
Politics / Re: N300 To 1$ - Nigeria Will Be Great Again by 4Play(m): 6:09am On Apr 28, 2023 |
richmond500: The delusion is strong here. 2 Likes |
Politics / Re: As Bad As It Is Nigeria Of 2021 Will Be A Paradise Compared To Nigeria Of 2041 by 4Play(m): 12:39pm On Apr 26, 2023 |
tensazangetsu20: I don't disagree that people will miss Buhari but some of the reasons will be for things outside Tinubu's control. For one, he has to remove or at least pare down fuel subsidy. That will cause a heavy blow to people's living standards. He has to figure out a way of managing government debt (less/restrained spending) and widening the tax base. Again, these come with high short-term pain. On the insecurity side, that will continue as an explosion in youth population and the desertification (due to climate change) that pushes Fulani herdsmen down South will lead to continued clashes. Everything is set for more misery not because Tinubu is necessarily inept but partly because the Buhari government he supported and helped enthron has given him a bunch of ticking time bombs. 1 Like |
Politics / Re: As Bad As It Is Nigeria Of 2021 Will Be A Paradise Compared To Nigeria Of 2041 by 4Play(m): 12:30pm On Apr 26, 2023 |
tensazangetsu20: I don't think he's going to be worse than Buhari. I think he's going to be GEJ level of bad. Someone who has some good ideas but will execute them poorly and will be blissfully unaware as the country drifts into more poverty and insecurity. |
Crime / Re: Herdsmen Invade Ondo State Community, Kill Farmer, Injure Eight Other Residents by 4Play(m): 1:28pm On Apr 25, 2023 |
GeneralPula: Are you waiting for instructions on propaganda from your employers? 131 Likes 10 Shares |
Politics / Re: 2 Abducted Chibok Girls - Hauwa Mutah & Esther Markus Escape From Sambisa Forest by 4Play(m): 12:44pm On Apr 25, 2023 |
Whilst they were in captivity, their country's leaders didn't give a damn and the opposition used them as political footballs and didn't give a damn either. 3 Likes 1 Share |
Politics / Re: Breaking: Igbo People On The Street Of Nigeria Demanding For Biafra Referendum by 4Play(m): 12:42pm On Apr 25, 2023 |
T8ksy: The North v South divides are almost equally balanced in population. If a political region leaves, that creates a significant imbalance and an incentive for the remaining regions on the reduced side of the divide to also leave. With a Biafra, why would an Ijaw or Yoruba person want to stay in a Nigeria that will now be disproportionately Northern? |
Foreign Affairs / Re: Joe Biden Announces 2024 Re-Election Bid by 4Play(m): 12:26pm On Apr 25, 2023 |
lhordspy: Can you point me to when Mr Biden disappeared to France or abroad for a month in order to "rest"? 3 Likes 1 Share |
Politics / Re: Zamfara Government Reinstates Emir Aliyu Marafa Who Turbaned Ado Aleru by 4Play(m): 4:23pm On Apr 23, 2023 |
MasterJayJay: Many's understanding of politics is that the end game is for our tribesmen to be in power. If that's your understanding, then the Northern political class is excelling in politics. If you understand politics as a means of securing a better standard of living for people you govern, the Northern political class is failing. 3 Likes |
Politics / Re: Nigeria’s Bleeding Economy And Quest For A Sound CBN Governor by 4Play(m): 2:03pm On Apr 23, 2023 |
grandstar: I would guess the figure may be at least $60bn. For instance in 2013 alone, the CBN allegedly used $26.6bn in forex interventions:http://businessnews.com.ng/2014/01/08/cbn-defended-naira-26-6bn-2013-report/ As governor for almost 5 years, 2009 to 2014, these forex interventions to stabilise the exchange rate were a regular feature of Sanusi's tenure. An 2011 article notes this: Saying that the apex bank had failed to rise to the occasion at the height of the strident calls by the International Monetary Fund to devalue the local currency, Agbaje said, “I think CBN missed the opportunity two years back to adopt greater exchange rate flexibility to prevent (as the IMF famously cautioned) ‘one-way bets’ against the naira.https://www.ghanamma.com/2011/11/28/nigeria-cbn-finally-surrenders-to-market-forces-on-the-naira/ This carried on through Emefiele's tenure but the downsides have become more glaring given the backdrop of lower oil prices. It's very obvious to me why these forex interventions to stabilise the Naira are unsustainable and quite destructive. If you have high inflation, like Nigeria has had for decades, you simply can't have a stable exchange rate. Stable rates would result in subsidizing imports and undermining your own export competitiveness. |
Politics / Re: Keyamo Goes On Fishing While Enjoying His Vacation Abroad (Photo) by 4Play(m): 8:33am On Apr 23, 2023 |
internationalman: They like Nigeria in so far as it offers them an easier route to unparalleled wealth. If Keyamo grew up in the US, the most he can hope for is an ordinary middle-class existence. 4 Likes 1 Share |
Politics / Re: My Analysis Of Tinubu's 'Cocaine Trip' Video by 4Play(m): 7:02pm On Apr 22, 2023 |
The interpretation of the helicopter video as one of a drug deal in progress is beyond stupid. It's food for the gullible. |
Politics / Re: Obi Seems To Be Poverty-shaming The North, But Is He? - Farooqkperogi by 4Play(m): 12:35pm On Apr 22, 2023 |
EmeeNaka: You have to be naive to believe that the poverty rate of any place, absent war or natural disaster or some systemic crisis, can change from 20% to 60% within 6 years. It's sad seeing the level of discourse in Nigerian politics and the pseudo-intellectualism of Nigerians like Kperogi. |
Politics / Re: Is President-elect Ghosting Nigerians? by 4Play(m): 9:27am On Apr 22, 2023 |
Finesse247: His silence and absence are a complete farce. Try and imagine a person elected as leader in Britain, the US, Japan or even South Africa not making public appearances in his home country for weeks, never mind going 2 months. By now, the president-elect will be holding press conferences and making the initial cabinet nominations so as to hit the ground running. His supporters, mostly naifs, will keep up the positive talk assuming that things will work out in the end. 2 Likes |
Foreign Affairs / Re: UK Deputy PM, Dominic Raab Resigns Over Bullying Report by 4Play(m): 11:48am On Apr 21, 2023 |
RevolverOcelot: Bullying, harrasing and generally maltreating your subordinates is one of the perks of being a Nigerian oga. What kind of boss are you, if you are not shouting at people you lead? Nigerians will think you are a mumu and weak leader. 2 Likes |
Politics / Re: NRC Services Debt With N111bn, Generates N12bn – Report by 4Play(m): 1:03pm On Apr 18, 2023 |
NRC ought to be privatized and the government should encourage private investors/companies to build and own rail tracks, stations and trains. 1 Like 1 Share |
Politics / Re: Federal High Court Abuja restrains INEC From Tampering With Binani's Declaration by 4Play(m): 6:23am On Apr 18, 2023 |
KanwuliaExtra: They won't hear anything. Nigeria is basically a lawless kleptocracy, so I assume that any criminality/illegality is possible and will attract no blowback. |
Politics / Re: Nigeria’s 96% Revenue Used To Service Debt In 2022 – World Bank by 4Play(m): 4:51pm On Apr 17, 2023 |
baralatie: People still claim that because developed economies like the US, Japan, and the UK have a lot of debt, it's ok for us. They forget that debt sustainability is the key issue here especially when debt interest (both rate and amount) is high. Up until recently, Germany and Japan could borrow at negative interest rates! Which means the creditors paid them to lend to them. Nigeria is not in the same league, it's like comparing Kano Pillars to Real Madrid. Nigeria has low investor confidence with many Nigerians, including political leaders, desperate to locate their money/investment/property in safer economic climes like the UK and the US. Mind you, these figures probably don't even include borrowing from the CBN which has been happening surreptitiously. If you include debt owed to the CBN, we are looking at $150bn in debt. Also, much of the debt incurred has gone to finance consumption, or pay off older debt, so no chance of reaping return on investment. It's a dire situation and I feel sorry for Nigerians as they don't know what is coming. |
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