4Play's Posts
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nairalanda1:The government always has a fixed price, including last year, and this is why they exceed the subsidy budget. Get rid of the fixed price and when the budgeted amount runs out for the year, fuel price can continue rising but at least injecting some subsidy funding makes the rate of increase smoother for the economy and helps with inflation (inflation is afterall a question of rate of price growth). People are fixated with the idea that subsidized fuel means the government committs to a price that fuel will be sold at because this is how we have always done it in Nigeria. It's definitely not the case that subsidy has to be structured this way and only this way. The idea that this way of removing subsidy gradually has failed before in Nigeria is incorrect because all partial removal I can recall (including GEJ's 2012 reduction) involved setting the price at a higher level which was bound to fail with time as there would be no political will/capital left to change the price again when Nigeria's persistent inflation problem rendered the fixed price obsolete/expensive. By discarding of the tendency to set fuel price, the government will allow market forces largely determine price but slow the rate of increase to allow for easier adjustment to the resulting price shock. It's the same reason why central banks often increase interest rates slowly toward a target level - to reduce risks to the economy associated with sudden price shocks. |
grandstar:They don't have to fix a price, they could set a fixed subsidy budget. Say N500bn in year one, N400bn in year two, and so on. That way, the fuel price is partly driven by market forces but the overall increase in price is limited. I am all against doing the same things that haven't worked in the past but a fixed subsidy budget (which reduces each year) is different from simply fixing a new price which is what past partial removals entailed. If your fear is that exchange rate depreciation will keep pushing fuel price up, one way of amplifying depreciation is to add to inflationary pressures. If the government isn't prepared for much higher CBN interest rates and what I suggested before (an IMF bailout to obtain scarce forex), we will learn the hard way when inflation pummels the economy to smithereens. |
I was surprised to see people like Wale Edun say the naira will stabilise around N700 to the dollar. I think restoring confidence in naira will require 2 anchors which are missing. The first and quickest are significant increases in the CBN's interest rate to at least 30% to curtail inflation. I don't think the wholesale removal of fuel subsidy helped the inflation picture. The second and more difficult is a set of comprehensive reforms (privatization, deregulation, etc) that will signal to markets/foreign investors that this government represents a radical change to what preceded before. I think that whilst the devaluation of the exchange rate was welcome, the government still seems wedded to the idea of managing the exchange rate and it maintains restrictions to forex access. People may come to see what the CBN did recently as just another round of naira devaluation. One of many Nigeria has undertaken since the early 80s when 70 kobo could get you $1. |
grandstar:It's precisely because inflation is high that the full removal of subsidy at once is ill-advised. The higher the fuel price, the higher the rare of inflation. High levels of inflation undermine economic confidence, currency stability and ultimately override any gains in debt sustainability. By the way, I think the government's reforms are half-baked. For instance, the spread between the official and black market exchange rates is re-emerging partly because the CBN retains restrictions on forex access to certain items and I suspect highly connected people can't let go of the round-tripping opportunities multiple exchange rates offer. At the end, foreign investors will come to see Tinubu’s policies as driven by desperation to sustain/increase government spending rather than a genuine embrace of wholesale reforms. As for the markets, I don't know if you are aware that Nigerian equity markets were one of the world's best performing in 2020 and 2022, as well as posting a decent performance in 2021. https://www.thecable.ng/nse-ranked-2020-best-performing-stock-market https://tribuneonlineng.com/nigerian-equities-market-gains-n5-7trn-to-rank-4th-globally/ https://businessday.ng/markets/article/nigerias-stock-market-ends-year-2021-with-positive-return-of-6-7/ The currency market (which is much bigger than the stock market), and the bond market to a lesser extent, are painting a different picture. Until reforms are comprehensive and inflation is brought under control, things will continue to get worse. I think the way fuel subsidy has been removed, despite the splattering of positive comments by some foreigners, will amplify Nigeria's economic problems. |
seunmsg:But now the government is considering costly palliatives and there is even talk of increasing public sector wages. If you are going to spend N500bn on palliatives, you might as well commit to spending only N500bn on subsidy. You have to remember that the ultimate objective of economic policy is promoting economic prosperity. Market-determined prices are a means to an end, not the end in itself. I suspect most African countries have market-determined fuel prices. But they have no prosperity. The increase in inflation, at the same time that the currency is under pressure, will mean that most people will experience worsening poverty amplifying social instability and it will make it less likely that the government can follow through with more needed reforms because it's spent so much political capital for little apparent (to the average Nigerian) benefit. |
TheBillyonaire:It's the IMF's role to monitor and give advice to all countries. They give advice to the US, UK, Germany, China, etc. No country needs to take their advice but analysing economic policies and providing recommendations is part and parcel of their function. |
nedu666:I will say around 10 years. After the initial shock of a change in the price level of petrol, future changes will happen at a slower rate so living standards will adjust better. In the meantime, the money used in subsidizing petrol will be put to better use even if some of it is embezzled which happens with subsidy money anyway. I would have preferred that the removal is done gradually to mitigate the impact on Nigerians but better it be removed than not all. |
inoki247:Removing subsidy should have long-term positive impacts but will be painful in the short-term. Personally, I would have preferred a gradual phasing out of subsidy but it's better to remove it than to leave it in place. |
The International Monetary Fund has projected that Nigeria’s economic growth will decline in 2023 and 2024 due to security issues in the oil sector.https://punchng.com/insecurity-will-slow-nigerias-growth-says-imf/ |
The pertinent question is how is someone who was thieving from a UK store in the 1990s suddenly so rich? Sure, he can appeal but how did he come about his wealth? |
LagosFirstSon:This is a stupid take. Fulani killings have been going on long before Buhari and are actually widespread across West and Central Africa. It doesn't matter who you have as president. What the president can do is significantly increase the size of the military and police, in addition to providing them with the equipmen, to combat this insecurity. |
grandstar:I think people should worry less about the naira losing value, unless it's falling dramatically. A gradual decline to N1000 to $1 over the next 4 years doesn't worry me. If it happens within months, that will be troubling. In the long run and given high inflation in Nigeria, naira will continue depreciating unless we overcome the inflation problem. We will need higher interest rates and restraints on fiscal spending to conquer inflation. Unfortunately, we will have go backwards to go forward but we need to be a bit cautious. It's why I am worried about taking off fuel subsidy immediately instead of my preferred gradual elimination. There is only so much pain Nigerians can endure in such a short duration and you risk replaying the Russian/ex-Soviet states situation of the 1990s when market-led reforms at the end of the communist era were rushed through causing extreme poverty and financial crises and discrediting the reform process. |
CodeTemplar:In the long run, the naira will continue to fall until we get inflation well under control. The Tinubu propagandists should have held off on talking about naira strength as this is not well founded. |
The Nigerian "billionaire" who tried to buy Sheffield United is accused of being a fraudster in a new research report published today: https://hindenburgresearch.com/tingo/ We are short Tingo Group Inc (NASDAQ:TIO) because we believe the company is an exceptionally obvious scam with completely fabricated financials. |
IamV:He is on the right track. 99% of Nigerians are not civil servants or related to civil servants. The average Nigerian is a rural dweller, living on subsistence farming, cattle herding or fishing. They don't have time or even access to Twitter or much of the internet. Nobody speaks for them or tries to change govt policy to benefit them (I believe subsidy for kerosene was removed years ago to virtual silence from Nigerians). The government should aim to improve the quality of life for the average Nigerian, not the vocal urban/city dwellers who frequent places like Nairaland and Twitter. To this end, carefully targeted palliatives would be useful. They can even use the money to pay for healthcare access or access to primary and secondary education (maybe aim for free education up to SS3 level) improving health and human capital. If civil servants feel that working for the government is uniquely bad, they can try a different line of work. Nigeria can't afford another big increase in recurrent expenditure to pay higher civil servant wages. It is disingenuous to suggest that the way to provide welfare aid to reduce poverty in Nigeria is by increasing civil service pay when civil servants are arguably already better off than most Nigerians. That's why people pay bribes to be hired as civil servants! |
No need for long explanation. There was an oil boom in the 1970s which made the overall economy buoyant except for export (non-oil) sectors of the economy like agriculture. Once the oil boom ended from 1980, and almost solely dependent on oil for exports, the whole economy went into a significant slump. |
That's an impressive response even if it's just one day yet. Fuel subsidy removal will cause a lot of short-term hardship and I would have preferred a gradual phasing out but in the long run, it's a step in the right direction. |
If this u-turn story is accurate, spare a thought for his supporters who argued yesterday that the immediacy of the subsidy removal was unavoidable. Now they have to spin the postponement as another evidence of Tinubu's earth-shattering sagacity and wisdom. |
Nigerians resent racism against blacks in the same way ISIS or Al Qaeda resent discrimination against Muslims or the KKK resent discrimination against whites. In other words, we are not against prejudice and discrimination in principle, we are just against being at the receiving end of it. |
It will be silly if Tinubu and his defenders start blaming Buhari in a few months for disappointment with the new government when Tinubu was partly responsible for Buhari being in power. Having benefited from supporting Buhari to further his personal ambitions, the negative fallout from Buhari's ineptitude have to be taken as the logical consequences of his support. |
Tianamen1:I forgot about this too as the CBN's lending to the government is something that is a bit murky and I don't know if it has the legal powers to refuse. As you indicate, FG's spending fuels inflation. Inflation makes holding naira unattractive, which is why higher interest rates are needed, and creates additional demand for forex (the more naira supply is created, the more naira is used to purchase forex). By printing naira, lending to the government, and not imposing much higher interest rates, the CBN was facilitating the forces causing naira depreciation. |
This is a topic that is too complex to be properly addressed in a Nairaland post but I will summarise my views. At heart, naira depreciation reflects an imbalance between the supply and demand for foreign currency (forex) in Nigeria. So, in theory, naira depreciation can be reversed or at least curtailed if the supply of forex is improved and demand is curbed. Another way of looking at it is to increase supply way faster than demand growth. I don't think any CBN governor would have stopped the naira's collapse from 2014 following the oil price decline that started that year. Oil revenues are obviously our main source of forex inflows via exports. Foreign direct investment into the oil and gas sector also brings in forex. In addition, foreign investor confidence (a key driver of portfolio inflows) also aligns with the strength of the oil sector, i.e, when oil prices are high, investors are keener to invest due to the stimulative effect it has on the general economy. So there is a host of reasons/policies, outside the CBN's remit, primarily centered on boosting non-oil exports and foreign investment into Nigeria that would have unchained the dependence of the Naira on the buoyancy of oil prices. In addition to the above, currencies follow a self-reinforcing cycle. Once a currency starts to significantly depreciate (due to oil price decline in our case), people/investors want to sell the currency. So the above factors suggest naira was going to decline no matter what once oil prices started falling in 2014. That all being said, the CBN governor made a bad situation even worse in 3 key respects. The most important is his fixed exchange rate which kept the naira artificially pegged at an unrealistic level. To illustrate, why would a foreign investor bring in funds to invest when, at the official rate, he will get less for his currency than he would get at the market rate? Supposing you assessed that a cement plant at a certain output level will cost you N440bn to build in Nigeria, at the official CBN rate you will need to invest circa $1bn. At the actual (market rate), you will only need $600m. So the fixed official rate acts as a disincentive. This also applies to export revenue, why export from Nigeria and get less in naira at the official rate than you could get at the market rate. The second way the CBN screwed up is by suppressing or trying to suppress demand by restricting access to forex. This damaged investor confidence again as such policy interventions dissuade foreign investors from bringing in forex into the country in the first place. If you know or suspect you will struggle to access forex in Nigeria, you will think twice about bringing it in in the first place. The last important error for me is that the level of interest rate that the CBN set is too low given the high level of inflation. When the purchasing power of your currency is falling in your own country, investors need high interest rates to compensate them for holding naira. If you give me interest rates of +30% per year, I will be prepared to hold naira bank deposits/naira bonds. Otherwise, inflation and currency depreciation makes holding naira assets unattractive. This in a nutshell summarises the naira debacle. It's not simply the CBN governor (a different governor under a Buhari government would likely adopt the same policies) but the governor has worsened an already bad situation. |
Yemi Mobolade, a Nigerian immigrant and businessman with no political experience, will be the first elected Black mayor of Colorado Springs after he defeated Wayne Williams on Tuesday night in the city’s runoff contest.https://coloradosun.com/2023/05/16/yemi-mobolade-colorado-springs-mayor/
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I suspect if Mr Ogunlesi sees this claim that he owns airports, he will feel very embarrassed. |
I think these are transitory, spur-of-the-moment tensile pushes and pulls that may soon abate, but it’s astonishing that it’s even happening.This part is wishful thinking. This is only the beginning. Factors that will drive more conflict across Nigeria include: Climate change with its impact on desertification which deprives herdsmen and farmers of arable land and water resources, and the growth in youth population which generates lots of young men with few economic opportunities. Expect more conflicts not less in the immediate future. |
You are obfuscating with appeals to sentiment. He did the crime and has to live with the consequences. If a British politician does same in Nigeria (very unlikely), we should mete out similar punishment. |
Humans originated from Africa before migrating to other continents so it makes sense that the "mother continent" has a lot more demographic diversity. |
The decision to postpone subsidy removal and at the same time commence salary increase implementation seem like attempts to sabotage the new administration before it's taken office. Not that Tinubu personally cares. If anything, his supporters will use Buhari's ineptitude as propaganda in future to make excuses for him. |
Lanretoye:You saw people standing in front of open gutters and concluded this is in Europe? |
MXrep:They referred to 26 states and Abuja so it's not just the North though the most serious are the Northern states. An earlier report from UNICEF highlights some reasons: Children are the most vulnerable to food insecurity. Approximately 6 of the 17 million food-insecure Nigerians today are children under 5 living in Borno, Adamawa, Yobe, Sokoto, Katsina and Zamfara states. There is a serious risk of mortality among children attributed to acute malnutrition. In the BAY states alone, the number of children suffering from acute malnutrition is expected to increase from 1.74 million in 2022 to 2 million in 2023.https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/25-million-nigerians-high-risk-food-insecurity-2023 |