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Politics / Re: Buhari’s People Are Not Making Things Easier For His Successor, Nigerians - Sani by 4Play(m): 12:59pm On May 24, 2023
It will be silly if Tinubu and his defenders start blaming Buhari in a few months for disappointment with the new government when Tinubu was partly responsible for Buhari being in power.

Having benefited from supporting Buhari to further his personal ambitions, the negative fallout from Buhari's ineptitude have to be taken as the logical consequences of his support.

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Politics / Re: Is The CBN Governor Really Responsible For Weakening Of The Naira? by 4Play(m): 3:05pm On May 20, 2023
Tianamen1:
My original post tried to explain the interplay between the fiscal policies of the federal government and the monetary policies of the CBN.

4play, I like your first statement that this situation is too complicated for a nairaland post.

I forgot about this too as the CBN's lending to the government is something that is a bit murky and I don't know if it has the legal powers to refuse.

As you indicate, FG's spending fuels inflation. Inflation makes holding naira unattractive, which is why higher interest rates are needed, and creates additional demand for forex (the more naira supply is created, the more naira is used to purchase forex). By printing naira, lending to the government, and not imposing much higher interest rates, the CBN was facilitating the forces causing naira depreciation.

2 Likes

Politics / Re: Is The CBN Governor Really Responsible For Weakening Of The Naira? by 4Play(m): 2:47pm On May 20, 2023
This is a topic that is too complex to be properly addressed in a Nairaland post but I will summarise my views.

At heart, naira depreciation reflects an imbalance between the supply and demand for foreign currency (forex) in Nigeria. So, in theory, naira depreciation can be reversed or at least curtailed if the supply of forex is improved and demand is curbed. Another way of looking at it is to increase supply way faster than demand growth.

I don't think any CBN governor would have stopped the naira's collapse from 2014 following the oil price decline that started that year. Oil revenues are obviously our main source of forex inflows via exports. Foreign direct investment into the oil and gas sector also brings in forex. In addition, foreign investor confidence (a key driver of portfolio inflows) also aligns with the strength of the oil sector, i.e, when oil prices are high, investors are keener to invest due to the stimulative effect it has on the general economy. So there is a host of reasons/policies, outside the CBN's remit, primarily centered on boosting non-oil exports and foreign investment into Nigeria that would have unchained the dependence of the Naira on the buoyancy of oil prices.

In addition to the above, currencies follow a self-reinforcing cycle. Once a currency starts to significantly depreciate (due to oil price decline in our case), people/investors want to sell the currency.

So the above factors suggest naira was going to decline no matter what once oil prices started falling in 2014.

That all being said, the CBN governor made a bad situation even worse in 3 key respects. The most important is his fixed exchange rate which kept the naira artificially pegged at an unrealistic level. To illustrate, why would a foreign investor bring in funds to invest when, at the official rate, he will get less for his currency than he would get at the market rate? Supposing you assessed that a cement plant at a certain output level will cost you N440bn to build in Nigeria, at the official CBN rate you will need to invest circa $1bn. At the actual (market rate), you will only need $600m. So the fixed official rate acts as a disincentive. This also applies to export revenue, why export from Nigeria and get less in naira at the official rate than you could get at the market rate.

The second way the CBN screwed up is by suppressing or trying to suppress demand by restricting access to forex. This damaged investor confidence again as such policy interventions dissuade foreign investors from bringing in forex into the country in the first place. If you know or suspect you will struggle to access forex in Nigeria, you will think twice about bringing it in in the first place.

The last important error for me is that the level of interest rate that the CBN set is too low given the high level of inflation. When the purchasing power of your currency is falling in your own country, investors need high interest rates to compensate them for holding naira. If you give me interest rates of +30% per year, I will be prepared to hold naira bank deposits/naira bonds. Otherwise, inflation and currency depreciation makes holding naira assets unattractive.

This in a nutshell summarises the naira debacle. It's not simply the CBN governor (a different governor under a Buhari government would likely adopt the same policies) but the governor has worsened an already bad situation.

4 Likes 1 Share

Politics / Yemi Mobolade Elected Mayor Of Colorado Springs by 4Play(m): 6:00am On May 17, 2023
Yemi Mobolade, a Nigerian immigrant and businessman with no political experience, will be the first elected Black mayor of Colorado Springs after he defeated Wayne Williams on Tuesday night in the city’s runoff contest.

Mobolade had received 57% of the vote to Williams’ 43% as of 7:15 p.m. Tuesday. Williams conceded at about 7:30 p.m. When the second batch of results was released shortly before 9 p.m., the percentages hadn’t shifted.

Mobolade will succeed Mayor John Suthers, a former federal prosecutor and Colorado attorney general who was term-limited, to become the city’s 42nd mayor.

Mobolade’s decisive victory represents a political earthquake in Colorado Springs, long known as a conservative stronghold. Williams is a Republican while Mobolade is unaffiliated.

Just a few years ago it would be hard to imagine someone other than a Republican leading the city. But cracks in Colorado Springs’ GOP streak have shown in recent years. In the November election, Democratic Gov. Jared Polis came within 4 percentage points of his GOP challenger, University of Colorado Regent Heidi Ganahl, in El Paso County. Several Democrats won state legislative seats in and around the city.

“Wow,” an incredulous Mobolade said to kick off his victory speech. “Wow. Wow. I am speechless.”

Mobolade, a married father of three, moved to Colorado Springs in 2010 and quickly became a leader in the business community. He cofounded two popular restaurants — The Wild Goose Meeting House and Good Neighbors Meeting House — in Colorado’s second-largest city and served as its small business development administrator. He was also the vice president of business retention and expansion for the Colorado Springs Chamber and Economic Development Corporation.

https://coloradosun.com/2023/05/16/yemi-mobolade-colorado-springs-mayor/

1 Like

Politics / Re: The Most Popular Airport In London Is Owned By A Yoruba Man by 4Play(m): 1:12pm On May 14, 2023
I suspect if Mr Ogunlesi sees this claim that he owns airports, he will feel very embarrassed.

1 Like 1 Share

Politics / Re: Rising Ethnic Tension Between Hausa And Fulani By Farooq A. Kperogi by 4Play(m): 11:50am On May 06, 2023
I think these are transitory, spur-of-the-moment tensile pushes and pulls that may soon abate, but it’s astonishing that it’s even happening.

This part is wishful thinking. This is only the beginning.

Factors that will drive more conflict across Nigeria include: Climate change with its impact on desertification which deprives herdsmen and farmers of arable land and water resources, and the growth in youth population which generates lots of young men with few economic opportunities.

Expect more conflicts not less in the immediate future.

39 Likes 3 Shares

Politics / Re: Prof Ike Ekweremadu: Every Nigerian Should Be Ashamed by 4Play(m): 9:39am On May 06, 2023
You are obfuscating with appeals to sentiment. He did the crime and has to live with the consequences. If a British politician does same in Nigeria (very unlikely), we should mete out similar punishment.
Politics / Re: Why Are There So Many Tribes In Africa? by 4Play(m): 9:27pm On May 02, 2023
Humans originated from Africa before migrating to other continents so it makes sense that the "mother continent" has a lot more demographic diversity.

1 Like

Politics / Re: Buhari Lays ‘booby Traps’ For Incoming Government; By Punch Editorial Board by 4Play(m): 8:08am On May 02, 2023
The decision to postpone subsidy removal and at the same time commence salary increase implementation seem like attempts to sabotage the new administration before it's taken office.

Not that Tinubu personally cares. If anything, his supporters will use Buhari's ineptitude as propaganda in future to make excuses for him.

67 Likes 3 Shares

Politics / Re: Check Out A Beautiful Scenery Of Onitsha That Is Trending Online by 4Play(m): 5:49pm On May 01, 2023
Lanretoye:
It is Europe,dey fool yourself.

You saw people standing in front of open gutters and concluded this is in Europe?
Politics / Re: WFP: 1 In 8 Nigerians Facing Acute Hunger by 4Play(m): 4:28pm On May 01, 2023
MXrep:
North

They referred to 26 states and Abuja so it's not just the North though the most serious are the Northern states.

An earlier report from UNICEF highlights some reasons:

Children are the most vulnerable to food insecurity. Approximately 6 of the 17 million food-insecure Nigerians today are children under 5 living in Borno, Adamawa, Yobe, Sokoto, Katsina and Zamfara states. There is a serious risk of mortality among children attributed to acute malnutrition. In the BAY states alone, the number of children suffering from acute malnutrition is expected to increase from 1.74 million in 2022 to 2 million in 2023.

UNICEF, working with the government and partners such as MSF and ALIMA, is investing in scaling up preventive nutrition interventions, while ensuring that vulnerable children have access to life-saving nutrition services. In 2022, UNICEF with partners was able to reach approximately 650,000 children with life-saving nutrition services across the six states mentioned above.

The northwest region, around Katsina, Zamfara and Sokoto states, is an increasing food insecurity and malnutrition hotspot. An estimated 2.9 million people are currently critically food insecure (Cadre Harmonisé Phase 3 or worse.) This figure is projected to increase to 4.3 million in the lean season if urgent action is not taken.

https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/25-million-nigerians-high-risk-food-insecurity-2023
Politics / WFP: 1 In 8 Nigerians Facing Acute Hunger by 4Play(m): 4:20pm On May 01, 2023
THE United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has raised the alarm that one out of eight Nigerians, representing 24.8 million people, are facing acute hunger this year.

This is contained in a statement released on Saturday, April 29 in Abuja by the WFP head of Communications, Advocacy and Marketing in Nigeria, Chi Lael.

Lael disclosed that the agency, to address the urgent needs of those affected by conflict and in dire need of humanitarian aid in the North-east, was ramping up efforts to provide emergency food and nutrition assistance to 2.1 million people.

Part of the statement read, “WFP is gravely concerned that years of armed conflict in North-east Nigeria is driving hunger and malnutrition, with millions in need of life-saving assistance and facing the risk of famine.”

The WFP projected that Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states would witness severe hunger during the peak of the lean season between June and August 2023, with 4.3 million people being affected, and almost 600,000 on the brink of catastrophe.

https://www.icirnigeria.org/24-8m-nigerians-facing-acute-hunger-in-26-states-un/
Politics / Re: N300 To 1$ - Nigeria Will Be Great Again by 4Play(m): 6:43am On Apr 28, 2023
richmond500:
You are really bad in economics.
With Nigerian owned refinery in full operation and stoppage of subsidy.
It is obvious the naira will rise a bit

To my knowledge, the Kaduna refinery was commissioned in 1980 and the second Port Harcourt refinery in 1989. What happened to naira from 1980 to 1990?

According to this website, it went from 55 kobo for $1 in 1980 to N8.04 to $1 in 1990: https://www.bbc.com/pidgin/tori-58535028. In present day terms, this is like going from a dollar exchange rate of N700 to N10,000.00!

Of course, the economy of the 1980s was different but the point is that the import substitution premise that lies behind the argument that local refinery production will lead to stronger naira can be misleading.

4 Likes 1 Share

Politics / Re: N300 To 1$ - Nigeria Will Be Great Again by 4Play(m): 6:20am On Apr 28, 2023
nnewsnjobs:
Tomorrow now, Tinubu will say that he didn't give such promise.

#300 to $1, if he can achieve this, then I will give him my full respect.

Until then.

Tinubu that was running away from interview so that he will not go they and make any promises.
The only promise he made was student loan and recruitment of youth into the army. Outside that I didn't see any promise from him.

He thinks that he is wise by not given any promises.
We will assess him by checking the prices of good and services, dollar exchange rate and so many other indices when Buhari left office and compare it after one, two or four years of his administration to know how he is performing.
Promises or not, we know how to assess him.

Actually, not making the sort of promises customary to Nigerian presidential candidates is a sign of sound judgement.

The persons looking for or promising naira appreciation are economic illiterates and are not doing Tinubu any favors if he hasn't promised such. We will see in a few years.

4 Likes

Politics / Re: N300 To 1$ - Nigeria Will Be Great Again by 4Play(m): 6:09am On Apr 28, 2023
richmond500:

Our major problem is the money we spend on oil, $10b just for subsidy and the cost of refinning our crude and importing it back to Nigeria, you know how much be that?
And Dangote said he will be selling his oil in Naira to other countries.

Without trying if we can take the excesses we spend on oil, we can bring the dollar to N300.
That will revamp our economy and give rise to foreign investments.
N200 to a dollar is feasible in the next 4yrs if we focus on insecurity and oil.

Forget the huge debt weh Asiwaju inherit from Buhari, his administration has lots of advantage

The delusion is strong here.

2 Likes

Politics / Re: As Bad As It Is Nigeria Of 2021 Will Be A Paradise Compared To Nigeria Of 2041 by 4Play(m): 12:39pm On Apr 26, 2023
tensazangetsu20:


How much you willing to wager. In two years time, people will miss buhari.

I don't disagree that people will miss Buhari but some of the reasons will be for things outside Tinubu's control.

For one, he has to remove or at least pare down fuel subsidy. That will cause a heavy blow to people's living standards.

He has to figure out a way of managing government debt (less/restrained spending) and widening the tax base. Again, these come with high short-term pain.

On the insecurity side, that will continue as an explosion in youth population and the desertification (due to climate change) that pushes Fulani herdsmen down South will lead to continued clashes.

Everything is set for more misery not because Tinubu is necessarily inept but partly because the Buhari government he supported and helped enthron has given him a bunch of ticking time bombs.

1 Like

Politics / Re: As Bad As It Is Nigeria Of 2021 Will Be A Paradise Compared To Nigeria Of 2041 by 4Play(m): 12:30pm On Apr 26, 2023
tensazangetsu20:
Damn I should really stop prophesying. In 30 days someone worst than buhari will be sworn in as president grin grin grin

I don't think he's going to be worse than Buhari. I think he's going to be GEJ level of bad. Someone who has some good ideas but will execute them poorly and will be blissfully unaware as the country drifts into more poverty and insecurity.
Crime / Re: Herdsmen Invade Ondo State Community, Kill Farmer, Injure Eight Other Residents by 4Play(m): 1:28pm On Apr 25, 2023
GeneralPula:
I’ll confirm the news..

Are you waiting for instructions on propaganda from your employers?

131 Likes 10 Shares

Politics / Re: 2 Abducted Chibok Girls - Hauwa Mutah & Esther Markus Escape From Sambisa Forest by 4Play(m): 12:44pm On Apr 25, 2023
Whilst they were in captivity, their country's leaders didn't give a damn and the opposition used them as political footballs and didn't give a damn either.

3 Likes 1 Share

Politics / Re: Breaking: Igbo People On The Street Of Nigeria Demanding For Biafra Referendum by 4Play(m): 12:42pm On Apr 25, 2023
T8ksy:




Are you truly sure of that assertion in bold? Certainly, the true "owners of Nigeria" will do everything in their capacity to scupper the biafran agenda because they are aware that once any ethnic group exit Nigeria, others will follow suit, especially the south and the middlebelt.

The North v South divides are almost equally balanced in population. If a political region leaves, that creates a significant imbalance and an incentive for the remaining regions on the reduced side of the divide to also leave.

With a Biafra, why would an Ijaw or Yoruba person want to stay in a Nigeria that will now be disproportionately Northern?
Foreign Affairs / Re: Joe Biden Announces 2024 Re-Election Bid by 4Play(m): 12:26pm On Apr 25, 2023
lhordspy:
Joe Biden is 80years old, about 81 in few weeks.

Yet in Nigeria here, some political m!screants, fascists and disrespectful kids with the thinking ability of a 3month old baby are using age as a yardstick for efficiency in leadership.

This is the saner clime you compare us to. This is the saner clime you write letters to, to interfere in our national politics. This is your 'paradise'.... With an 80yr old president; declaring for another term...

To all pastors and G.Os who have abandoned the preaching of the gospel of God and are now using the altar of God to instigate, propagate and spread hate against the other religion by calling the candidate from other religion a 'druglord' , a 'terrorist' ....

Hear me well, and hear me clear. You are nothing but cone-artistes deceiving your gullible congregation. If election is conducted 2million times, Nigerians will still not vote your religious partitioner of a candidate. He can only be president of your politicised church, he can never and will never rule us in this country.

Can you point me to when Mr Biden disappeared to France or abroad for a month in order to "rest"?

3 Likes 1 Share

Politics / Re: Zamfara Government Reinstates Emir Aliyu Marafa Who Turbaned Ado Aleru by 4Play(m): 4:23pm On Apr 23, 2023
MasterJayJay:
When some people say 'The north are masters in politics', I just laugh at them.
They should organize a meeting with all bandits, boknharam and iswap members, give them traditional titles for peace to reign.


Many's understanding of politics is that the end game is for our tribesmen to be in power. If that's your understanding, then the Northern political class is excelling in politics.

If you understand politics as a means of securing a better standard of living for people you govern, the Northern political class is failing.

3 Likes

Politics / Re: Nigeria’s Bleeding Economy And Quest For A Sound CBN Governor by 4Play(m): 2:03pm On Apr 23, 2023
grandstar:


Sanusi probably spent $20b defending the Naira. Many blame Jonathan for the paltry $43 bn in the foreign reserves while that should have gone to SLS. He even admitted as much that he exploited high oil crude prices. He should have listened to the IMF when they advised him but with oil prices high, he jettisoned that advice.

I would guess the figure may be at least $60bn. For instance in 2013 alone, the CBN allegedly used $26.6bn in forex interventions:http://businessnews.com.ng/2014/01/08/cbn-defended-naira-26-6bn-2013-report/

As governor for almost 5 years, 2009 to 2014, these forex interventions to stabilise the exchange rate were a regular feature of Sanusi's tenure. An 2011 article notes this:
Saying that the apex bank had failed to rise to the occasion at the height of the strident calls by the International Monetary Fund to devalue the local currency, Agbaje said, “I think CBN missed the opportunity two years back to adopt greater exchange rate flexibility to prevent (as the IMF famously cautioned) ‘one-way bets’ against the naira.
https://www.ghanamma.com/2011/11/28/nigeria-cbn-finally-surrenders-to-market-forces-on-the-naira/

This carried on through Emefiele's tenure but the downsides have become more glaring given the backdrop of lower oil prices.

It's very obvious to me why these forex interventions to stabilise the Naira are unsustainable and quite destructive. If you have high inflation, like Nigeria has had for decades, you simply can't have a stable exchange rate. Stable rates would result in subsidizing imports and undermining your own export competitiveness.
Politics / Re: Keyamo Goes On Fishing While Enjoying His Vacation Abroad (Photo) by 4Play(m): 8:33am On Apr 23, 2023
internationalman:
How come people don't come to Nigeria for vacation except Nigerians..

Don't be deceived these people don't like Nigeria even though they may be staying in it they are actually not living in it.

Nigeria is like their workplace, a company where they work. Their real home is where their children are. And your guess is as good as mine.

They like Nigeria in so far as it offers them an easier route to unparalleled wealth. If Keyamo grew up in the US, the most he can hope for is an ordinary middle-class existence.

4 Likes 1 Share

Politics / Re: My Analysis Of Tinubu's 'Cocaine Trip' Video by 4Play(m): 7:02pm On Apr 22, 2023
The interpretation of the helicopter video as one of a drug deal in progress is beyond stupid. It's food for the gullible.
Politics / Re: Obi Seems To Be Poverty-shaming The North, But Is He? - Farooqkperogi by 4Play(m): 12:35pm On Apr 22, 2023
EmeeNaka:
This Farooq Kperogi is not different from an average politician, but in his view writings, he believe that he has provided a balanced opinion.
It is incredible to believe that Anambra have an increased poverty prevalence. Granted that some people would always quote Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the question is, how did NBS arrive at it's data? What study was it basing it references? Have the NBS data be peer reviewed? And what is the record of accuracy of NBS?
I believe that NBS could be one agency that needs to be checked very well, because government data or data, is important for policy formulation.

You have to be naive to believe that the poverty rate of any place, absent war or natural disaster or some systemic crisis, can change from 20% to 60% within 6 years. It's sad seeing the level of discourse in Nigerian politics and the pseudo-intellectualism of Nigerians like Kperogi.
Politics / Re: Is President-elect Ghosting Nigerians? by 4Play(m): 9:27am On Apr 22, 2023
Finesse247:
We've not seen video from him in recent times, we only see press releases. Not even perhaps pictures of followers went to celebrate Eid with him wherever he is. I can't wait for him to come back and hit the ground running and start running from day one as he said.

His silence and absence are a complete farce. Try and imagine a person elected as leader in Britain, the US, Japan or even South Africa not making public appearances in his home country for weeks, never mind going 2 months.

By now, the president-elect will be holding press conferences and making the initial cabinet nominations so as to hit the ground running.

His supporters, mostly naifs, will keep up the positive talk assuming that things will work out in the end.

2 Likes

Foreign Affairs / Re: UK Deputy PM, Dominic Raab Resigns Over Bullying Report by 4Play(m): 11:48am On Apr 21, 2023
RevolverOcelot:
Bullying staff and civil servants is part of the politics in Nigeria cheesy

Bullying, harrasing and generally maltreating your subordinates is one of the perks of being a Nigerian oga.

What kind of boss are you, if you are not shouting at people you lead? Nigerians will think you are a mumu and weak leader.

2 Likes

Politics / Re: NRC Services Debt With N111bn, Generates N12bn – Report by 4Play(m): 1:03pm On Apr 18, 2023
NRC ought to be privatized and the government should encourage private investors/companies to build and own rail tracks, stations and trains.

1 Like 1 Share

Politics / Re: Federal High Court Abuja restrains INEC From Tampering With Binani's Declaration by 4Play(m): 6:23am On Apr 18, 2023
KanwuliaExtra:
These people keep trying Nigerians. . . .Dem go soon hear am!

They won't hear anything. Nigeria is basically a lawless kleptocracy, so I assume that any criminality/illegality is possible and will attract no blowback.
Politics / Re: Nigeria’s 96% Revenue Used To Service Debt In 2022 – World Bank by 4Play(m): 4:51pm On Apr 17, 2023
baralatie:
It is as a result of the fashola group who were defending the importance of accumulating debts to be normal since america has debts and has not failed.
Well
Here we dey

People still claim that because developed economies like the US, Japan, and the UK have a lot of debt, it's ok for us.

They forget that debt sustainability is the key issue here especially when debt interest (both rate and amount) is high. Up until recently, Germany and Japan could borrow at negative interest rates! Which means the creditors paid them to lend to them. Nigeria is not in the same league, it's like comparing Kano Pillars to Real Madrid. Nigeria has low investor confidence with many Nigerians, including political leaders, desperate to locate their money/investment/property in safer economic climes like the UK and the US.

Mind you, these figures probably don't even include borrowing from the CBN which has been happening surreptitiously. If you include debt owed to the CBN, we are looking at $150bn in debt.

Also, much of the debt incurred has gone to finance consumption, or pay off older debt, so no chance of reaping return on investment.

It's a dire situation and I feel sorry for Nigerians as they don't know what is coming.

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