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THE United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has raised the alarm that one out of eight Nigerians, representing 24.8 million people, are facing acute hunger this year.https://www.icirnigeria.org/24-8m-nigerians-facing-acute-hunger-in-26-states-un/ |
richmond500:To my knowledge, the Kaduna refinery was commissioned in 1980 and the second Port Harcourt refinery in 1989. What happened to naira from 1980 to 1990? According to this website, it went from 55 kobo for $1 in 1980 to N8.04 to $1 in 1990: https://www.bbc.com/pidgin/tori-58535028. In present day terms, this is like going from a dollar exchange rate of N700 to N10,000.00! Of course, the economy of the 1980s was different but the point is that the import substitution premise that lies behind the argument that local refinery production will lead to stronger naira can be misleading. |
nnewsnjobs:Actually, not making the sort of promises customary to Nigerian presidential candidates is a sign of sound judgement. The persons looking for or promising naira appreciation are economic illiterates and are not doing Tinubu any favors if he hasn't promised such. We will see in a few years. |
richmond500:The delusion is strong here. |
tensazangetsu20:I don't disagree that people will miss Buhari but some of the reasons will be for things outside Tinubu's control. For one, he has to remove or at least pare down fuel subsidy. That will cause a heavy blow to people's living standards. He has to figure out a way of managing government debt (less/restrained spending) and widening the tax base. Again, these come with high short-term pain. On the insecurity side, that will continue as an explosion in youth population and the desertification (due to climate change) that pushes Fulani herdsmen down South will lead to continued clashes. Everything is set for more misery not because Tinubu is necessarily inept but partly because the Buhari government he supported and helped enthron has given him a bunch of ticking time bombs. |
tensazangetsu20:I don't think he's going to be worse than Buhari. I think he's going to be GEJ level of bad. Someone who has some good ideas but will execute them poorly and will be blissfully unaware as the country drifts into more poverty and insecurity. |
GeneralPula:Are you waiting for instructions on propaganda from your employers? |
Whilst they were in captivity, their country's leaders didn't give a damn and the opposition used them as political footballs and didn't give a damn either. |
T8ksy:The North v South divides are almost equally balanced in population. If a political region leaves, that creates a significant imbalance and an incentive for the remaining regions on the reduced side of the divide to also leave. With a Biafra, why would an Ijaw or Yoruba person want to stay in a Nigeria that will now be disproportionately Northern? |
lhordspy:Can you point me to when Mr Biden disappeared to France or abroad for a month in order to "rest"? |
MasterJayJay:Many's understanding of politics is that the end game is for our tribesmen to be in power. If that's your understanding, then the Northern political class is excelling in politics. If you understand politics as a means of securing a better standard of living for people you govern, the Northern political class is failing. |
grandstar:I would guess the figure may be at least $60bn. For instance in 2013 alone, the CBN allegedly used $26.6bn in forex interventions:http://businessnews.com.ng/2014/01/08/cbn-defended-naira-26-6bn-2013-report/ As governor for almost 5 years, 2009 to 2014, these forex interventions to stabilise the exchange rate were a regular feature of Sanusi's tenure. An 2011 article notes this: Saying that the apex bank had failed to rise to the occasion at the height of the strident calls by the International Monetary Fund to devalue the local currency, Agbaje said, “I think CBN missed the opportunity two years back to adopt greater exchange rate flexibility to prevent (as the IMF famously cautioned) ‘one-way bets’ against the naira.https://www.ghanamma.com/2011/11/28/nigeria-cbn-finally-surrenders-to-market-forces-on-the-naira/ This carried on through Emefiele's tenure but the downsides have become more glaring given the backdrop of lower oil prices. It's very obvious to me why these forex interventions to stabilise the Naira are unsustainable and quite destructive. If you have high inflation, like Nigeria has had for decades, you simply can't have a stable exchange rate. Stable rates would result in subsidizing imports and undermining your own export competitiveness. |
internationalman:They like Nigeria in so far as it offers them an easier route to unparalleled wealth. If Keyamo grew up in the US, the most he can hope for is an ordinary middle-class existence. |
The interpretation of the helicopter video as one of a drug deal in progress is beyond stupid. It's food for the gullible. |
EmeeNaka:You have to be naive to believe that the poverty rate of any place, absent war or natural disaster or some systemic crisis, can change from 20% to 60% within 6 years. It's sad seeing the level of discourse in Nigerian politics and the pseudo-intellectualism of Nigerians like Kperogi. |
Finesse247:His silence and absence are a complete farce. Try and imagine a person elected as leader in Britain, the US, Japan or even South Africa not making public appearances in his home country for weeks, never mind going 2 months. By now, the president-elect will be holding press conferences and making the initial cabinet nominations so as to hit the ground running. His supporters, mostly naifs, will keep up the positive talk assuming that things will work out in the end. |
RevolverOcelot:Bullying, harrasing and generally maltreating your subordinates is one of the perks of being a Nigerian oga. What kind of boss are you, if you are not shouting at people you lead? Nigerians will think you are a mumu and weak leader. |
NRC ought to be privatized and the government should encourage private investors/companies to build and own rail tracks, stations and trains. |
KanwuliaExtra:They won't hear anything. Nigeria is basically a lawless kleptocracy, so I assume that any criminality/illegality is possible and will attract no blowback. |
baralatie:People still claim that because developed economies like the US, Japan, and the UK have a lot of debt, it's ok for us. They forget that debt sustainability is the key issue here especially when debt interest (both rate and amount) is high. Up until recently, Germany and Japan could borrow at negative interest rates! Which means the creditors paid them to lend to them. Nigeria is not in the same league, it's like comparing Kano Pillars to Real Madrid. Nigeria has low investor confidence with many Nigerians, including political leaders, desperate to locate their money/investment/property in safer economic climes like the UK and the US. Mind you, these figures probably don't even include borrowing from the CBN which has been happening surreptitiously. If you include debt owed to the CBN, we are looking at $150bn in debt. Also, much of the debt incurred has gone to finance consumption, or pay off older debt, so no chance of reaping return on investment. It's a dire situation and I feel sorry for Nigerians as they don't know what is coming. |
SalamRushdie:Whilst Zimbabweans were starving due to Mugabe's intransigence, members of his Shona ethnic group continued to back him. One thing I have learned from politics is the resilience of ethno-religious sentimental support even in the face of dire reality. |
He likely had business interests which President Conde, a supposed friend, facilitated. It is very unlikely such interests would include drug trafficking as there are plenty of other more wholesome ways he could make money at that point in his life. Trafficking is too risky. |
Since the incoming President, Tinubu, and his relationship with Guinea is in the news, I thought I post this: OPINION Sunday Dare: In faraway Guinea Conakry, the Tinubu’s political prowess holds swayhttps://dailypost.ng/2015/10/26/sunday-dare-in-faraway-guinea-conakry-the-tinubus-political-prowess-holds-sway/ This is a Wikipedia summary of the 2015 Guinea elections: On 17 October 2015, Condé was selected for a second term and given 57.85 percent of the vote, an outright majority in the first round of voting.[4] The election was marred by fraud and mismanagement.[29] Cellou Dalein Diallo, who received the majority the vote, rejected the results because the vote had been rigged by Condé's government. Condé's government resorted again in intimidating voters, ballot stuffing, permitting minors to vote, altering the electoral map, and violence against the opposition supporters. However, the opposition did not file an official appeal.[30] Condé was sworn in for his second term on 14 December 2015.[31]Like most African leaders, it ended badly: https://www.theafricareport.com/in-depth/guinea-coup-the-fall-of-alpha-conde/ |
mrvitalis:Not floating the Naira provided a disincentive to export from Nigeria and for foreign investors, and everyone else, to bring in forex into Nigeria. Why would you bring FDI into Nigeria knowing full well taking money out of Nigeria will be a challenge? The multiple exchange rates provided arbitrage opportunities for the corrupt. I agree that Emefiele acts to please the presidency or whoever he owes his position to. But that singularly makes him unqualified for the role as the CBN governor should act independently from politicians. Do I expect that to change under Tinubu? If Tinubu has any sense, he will appoint competent central bankers and allow them to do their jobs without hindrance/interference. Central Bank independence is crucial to economic credibility. Emefiele was emblematic of the pitfalls of being a willing agent of political interference in central banking. He even tried to run for office whilst keeping his post! Naira redesign was chaotic and once again, the buck stops at his desk. The economic/social costs of Naira stability exceeded the benefits of stability. |
OneTemplate:Sanusi committed some basic errors in how he managed the exchange rate and this was in many respects a major source of the currency instability we experienced after his tenure. We had multiple exchange rates during Sanusi's tenure but with high oil prices, the spread between the official and the black market rates was narrow. The biggest error he committed, in my view, was using forex reserves to stabilise the Naira (the exchange rate was stable during his tenure). This is defensible if you are certain that oil prices (the most important source of forex inflows) will remain high. This of course turned out not be the case and ended up making the adjustment to lower oil prices more painful. In my view, you need a monetary economist as the CBN governor. This would be an expert in monetary policy but Nigeria has few of these. The only Nigerian monetary economist I know is Ayo Teriba but I don't know if he is suitable for the job. |
mrvitalis:The CBN governor was complicit as he pursued policies that are inimical to economic growth: fixed exchange regime, import restrictions, chaotic naira currency note replacement. Now, you can claim these policies would have been implemented anyway even if Emefiele resigned. That, I would agree with but the fact is that he never acted honorably and sullied his reputation by being the public face of central bank incompetence. |
N3TRAL:There is still this idea people have that if we get our son into government, he will "share the money" with his fellow tribes people whilst the others are left to rot. It's a boneheaded zero-sum thinking that underpins some of the tribalism you see here. Like you indicate, the measures of success partly lie in delivering an enabling environment for private enterprise to thrive. To my mind, that environment includes strong security forces to curb insecurity, adherence to the rule of law, deregulation to reduce government interference, etc. |
There is not much mystery to this. The calculation is that it is more politically beneficial to bash an Igbo person/Igbos than it is to bash those of a core North extraction. The idea is to appeal to ethnic/religious sentiment and resentment (the modus operandi of Nigerian political strategising) by uniting against the "scheming" and "devious" Igbos. You can have 2 events occur in a day, a massacre by herdsmen and a controversial comment by a prominent Igbo person. The comment will dominate the news cycle and the massacre will be relegated to a minor news story not worthy of discussion. There is not much logic to it beyond finding a common enemy. |
It's a far cry from the 2008 peak. The demise of oil and gas investment has not been replaced.
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Fuel subsidy will need to go as it distorts markets, disincentives investment and the FG cannot afford it given how much debt it has incurred. That being said, its impact on inflation will be brutal so I would recommend it's phased out instead of taken off in one go. The amount of suffering that awaits Nigerians in the coming years will be unprecedented. |
Inflation will be brutal if subsidy is removed but it has to be done. If 2 policy reforms Tinubu has suggested are implemented - subsidy removal and removal of multiple exchange rates - the immediate impact will be inflationary. To curb inflation, the CBN will need to hike interest rates even further which will add to the economic difficulties. At the same time, the incoming government is facing a fiscal crisis as debt expense takes up almost all of tax revenue. This will call for higher tax revenues and lower government spending. Again, these are immediately contractionary reducing economic growth in the short-term. The government may choose to not implement any of its reforms instead and just drift aimlessly for the next few years. I think it's a problem that the APC government has its power base effectively in the North (the South West is an aberration in the South). There's not much stomach for deregulation amongst Northern politicians so it will be interesting to see how Tinubu navigates through this. All I can say is I am glad I don't live in Nigeria. |
A big issue with these sorts of videos is that draw attention to extent of cognitive decline Tinubu has suffered as he's aged. You can see there is a sharp contrast between the young Tinubu (articulate and intellectually sound) and present day Tinubu who struggles to express himself. It makes me think a lot of people backing him do soin the hope this will be a repeat of the Yar'Adua scenario with Shettima taking over if Tinubu can't complete his tenure. |
