tensazangetsu20:
Damn I should really stop prophesying. In 30 days someone worst than buhari will be sworn in as president

I don't think he's going to be worse than Buhari. I think he's going to be GEJ level of bad. Someone who has some good ideas but will execute them poorly and will be blissfully unaware as the country drifts into more poverty and insecurity.

GeneralPula:
I’ll confirm the news..

Are you waiting for instructions on propaganda from your employers?

Whilst they were in captivity, their country's leaders didn't give a damn and the opposition used them as political footballs and didn't give a damn either.

T8ksy:




Are you truly sure of that assertion in bold? Certainly, the true "owners of Nigeria" will do everything in their capacity to scupper the biafran agenda because they are aware that once any ethnic group exit Nigeria, others will follow suit, especially the south and the middlebelt.

The North v South divides are almost equally balanced in population. If a political region leaves, that creates a significant imbalance and an incentive for the remaining regions on the reduced side of the divide to also leave.

With a Biafra, why would an Ijaw or Yoruba person want to stay in a Nigeria that will now be disproportionately Northern?

lhordspy:
Joe Biden is 80years old, about 81 in few weeks.

Yet in Nigeria here, some political m!screants, fascists and disrespectful kids with the thinking ability of a 3month old baby are using age as a yardstick for efficiency in leadership.

This is the saner clime you compare us to. This is the saner clime you write letters to, to interfere in our national politics. This is your 'paradise'.... With an 80yr old president; declaring for another term...

To all pastors and G.Os who have abandoned the preaching of the gospel of God and are now using the altar of God to instigate, propagate and spread hate against the other religion by calling the candidate from other religion a 'druglord' , a 'terrorist' ....

Hear me well, and hear me clear. You are nothing but cone-artistes deceiving your gullible congregation. If election is conducted 2million times, Nigerians will still not vote your religious partitioner of a candidate. He can only be president of your politicised church, he can never and will never rule us in this country.

Can you point me to when Mr Biden disappeared to France or abroad for a month in order to "rest"?

MasterJayJay:
When some people say 'The north are masters in politics', I just laugh at them.
They should organize a meeting with all bandits, boknharam and iswap members, give them traditional titles for peace to reign.

Many's understanding of politics is that the end game is for our tribesmen to be in power. If that's your understanding, then the Northern political class is excelling in politics.

If you understand politics as a means of securing a better standard of living for people you govern, the Northern political class is failing.

grandstar:


Sanusi probably spent $20b defending the Naira. Many blame Jonathan for the paltry $43 bn in the foreign reserves while that should have gone to SLS. He even admitted as much that he exploited high oil crude prices. He should have listened to the IMF when they advised him but with oil prices high, he jettisoned that advice.

I would guess the figure may be at least $60bn. For instance in 2013 alone, the CBN allegedly used $26.6bn in forex interventions:http://businessnews.com.ng/2014/01/08/cbn-defended-naira-26-6bn-2013-report/

As governor for almost 5 years, 2009 to 2014, these forex interventions to stabilise the exchange rate were a regular feature of Sanusi's tenure. An 2011 article notes this:

Saying that the apex bank had failed to rise to the occasion at the height of the strident calls by the International Monetary Fund to devalue the local currency, Agbaje said, “I think CBN missed the opportunity two years back to adopt greater exchange rate flexibility to prevent (as the IMF famously cautioned) ‘one-way bets’ against the naira.

https://www.ghanamma.com/2011/11/28/nigeria-cbn-finally-surrenders-to-market-forces-on-the-naira/

This carried on through Emefiele's tenure but the downsides have become more glaring given the backdrop of lower oil prices.

It's very obvious to me why these forex interventions to stabilise the Naira are unsustainable and quite destructive. If you have high inflation, like Nigeria has had for decades, you simply can't have a stable exchange rate. Stable rates would result in subsidizing imports and undermining your own export competitiveness.

internationalman:
How come people don't come to Nigeria for vacation except Nigerians..

Don't be deceived these people don't like Nigeria even though they may be staying in it they are actually not living in it.

Nigeria is like their workplace, a company where they work. Their real home is where their children are. And your guess is as good as mine.

They like Nigeria in so far as it offers them an easier route to unparalleled wealth. If Keyamo grew up in the US, the most he can hope for is an ordinary middle-class existence.

The interpretation of the helicopter video as one of a drug deal in progress is beyond stupid. It's food for the gullible.

EmeeNaka:
This Farooq Kperogi is not different from an average politician, but in his view writings, he believe that he has provided a balanced opinion.
It is incredible to believe that Anambra have an increased poverty prevalence. Granted that some people would always quote Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the question is, how did NBS arrive at it's data? What study was it basing it references? Have the NBS data be peer reviewed? And what is the record of accuracy of NBS?
I believe that NBS could be one agency that needs to be checked very well, because government data or data, is important for policy formulation.

You have to be naive to believe that the poverty rate of any place, absent war or natural disaster or some systemic crisis, can change from 20% to 60% within 6 years. It's sad seeing the level of discourse in Nigerian politics and the pseudo-intellectualism of Nigerians like Kperogi.

Finesse247:
We've not seen video from him in recent times, we only see press releases. Not even perhaps pictures of followers went to celebrate Eid with him wherever he is. I can't wait for him to come back and hit the ground running and start running from day one as he said.

His silence and absence are a complete farce. Try and imagine a person elected as leader in Britain, the US, Japan or even South Africa not making public appearances in his home country for weeks, never mind going 2 months.

By now, the president-elect will be holding press conferences and making the initial cabinet nominations so as to hit the ground running.

His supporters, mostly naifs, will keep up the positive talk assuming that things will work out in the end.

RevolverOcelot:
Bullying staff and civil servants is part of the politics in Nigeria

Bullying, harrasing and generally maltreating your subordinates is one of the perks of being a Nigerian oga.

What kind of boss are you, if you are not shouting at people you lead? Nigerians will think you are a mumu and weak leader.

NRC ought to be privatized and the government should encourage private investors/companies to build and own rail tracks, stations and trains.

KanwuliaExtra:
These people keep trying Nigerians. . . .Dem go soon hear am!

They won't hear anything. Nigeria is basically a lawless kleptocracy, so I assume that any criminality/illegality is possible and will attract no blowback.

baralatie:
It is as a result of the fashola group who were defending the importance of accumulating debts to be normal since america has debts and has not failed.
Well
Here we dey

People still claim that because developed economies like the US, Japan, and the UK have a lot of debt, it's ok for us.

They forget that debt sustainability is the key issue here especially when debt interest (both rate and amount) is high. Up until recently, Germany and Japan could borrow at negative interest rates! Which means the creditors paid them to lend to them. Nigeria is not in the same league, it's like comparing Kano Pillars to Real Madrid. Nigeria has low investor confidence with many Nigerians, including political leaders, desperate to locate their money/investment/property in safer economic climes like the UK and the US.

Mind you, these figures probably don't even include borrowing from the CBN which has been happening surreptitiously. If you include debt owed to the CBN, we are looking at $150bn in debt.

Also, much of the debt incurred has gone to finance consumption, or pay off older debt, so no chance of reaping return on investment.

It's a dire situation and I feel sorry for Nigerians as they don't know what is coming.

SalamRushdie:
The painful thing is despite all this Buhari still has supporters

Whilst Zimbabweans were starving due to Mugabe's intransigence, members of his Shona ethnic group continued to back him.
One thing I have learned from politics is the resilience of ethno-religious sentimental support even in the face of dire reality.

He likely had business interests which President Conde, a supposed friend, facilitated.

It is very unlikely such interests would include drug trafficking as there are plenty of other more wholesome ways he could make money at that point in his life. Trafficking is too risky.

Since the incoming President, Tinubu, and his relationship with Guinea is in the news, I thought I post this:

OPINION Sunday Dare: In faraway Guinea Conakry, the Tinubu’s political prowess holds sway
Published on October 26, 2015 By Daily Post Staff

Though the October 11, 2015 presidential elections in Guinea Conakry have come and gone, not many would forget in a long time the key role played by Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. And just like he did in the Nigerian situation serving as the catalyst, the fulcrum alongside others and perhaps the “babalawo” that brought the opposition to power and chased away the PDP after 16 years in power, Asiwaju Tinubu has helped retain a trusted friend and pan-Africanist in power. Prof. Alpha Conde, the first democratically elected president of Guinea, is back for a record second term of 5 years after a commanding first round victory of 58 per cent of total votes cast.


The victory that came when the final results were announced was reward for handwork and a campaign that was on message. The political campaign of the incumbent president got a bite when Tinubu moved in to help his friend, a brother and a true African leader. The journey for Alpha Conde’s re-election began sometime in May 2015 when he came to Nigeria for the inauguration of President Muhammadu Buhari. President Conde not only met with Nigeria’s President, Muhammadu Buhari, he met with other African leaders. He described his meeting with Buhari as very useful and insightful. President Conde in several conversations maintained that Africa has found in Buhari the leader it needs to lead it and move it forward. He said Buhari is best suited to lead Africa where Goodluck Jonathan failed.

https://dailypost.ng/2015/10/26/sunday-dare-in-faraway-guinea-conakry-the-tinubus-political-prowess-holds-sway/

This is a Wikipedia summary of the 2015 Guinea elections:

On 17 October 2015, Condé was selected for a second term and given 57.85 percent of the vote, an outright majority in the first round of voting.[4] The election was marred by fraud and mismanagement.[29] Cellou Dalein Diallo, who received the majority the vote, rejected the results because the vote had been rigged by Condé's government. Condé's government resorted again in intimidating voters, ballot stuffing, permitting minors to vote, altering the electoral map, and violence against the opposition supporters. However, the opposition did not file an official appeal.[30] Condé was sworn in for his second term on 14 December 2015.[31]

Like most African leaders, it ended badly:

https://www.theafricareport.com/in-depth/guinea-coup-the-fall-of-alpha-conde/

mrvitalis:

CBN recommended Naira flotation severally but buhari refused ....Les assume this is emefieles idea not to float the naira ...what different did it make ?


Import restrictions is what you are blaming on CBN ? You obviously don't know the CBN governor is not independent of the president

Naira redesign police helped stabilize naira you can't even deny that

This issues you raise have absolutely nothing on the points I raised

Not floating the Naira provided a disincentive to export from Nigeria and for foreign investors, and everyone else, to bring in forex into Nigeria. Why would you bring FDI into Nigeria knowing full well taking money out of Nigeria will be a challenge?

The multiple exchange rates provided arbitrage opportunities for the corrupt.

I agree that Emefiele acts to please the presidency or whoever he owes his position to. But that singularly makes him unqualified for the role as the CBN governor should act independently from politicians. Do I expect that to change under Tinubu? If Tinubu has any sense, he will appoint competent central bankers and allow them to do their jobs without hindrance/interference. Central Bank independence is crucial to economic credibility. Emefiele was emblematic of the pitfalls of being a willing agent of political interference in central banking. He even tried to run for office whilst keeping his post!

Naira redesign was chaotic and once again, the buck stops at his desk. The economic/social costs of Naira stability exceeded the benefits of stability.

OneTemplate:
@OP.

No doubt the choice of CBN governor is crucial to Tinubu's success as President. I am sure the search has begun already if not concluded even before the elections knowing Tinubu.

Many excellent names out there. Personally, for what Tinubu wants to achieve and the 360 degree change he wishes to introduce into the economic and monetary management of Nigeria's potentials, with special focus on lower interest rates and availability of credit, I would go with SLS.

He is very disciplined, resolute and brave. He can be trusted to be professional and loyal to the brief of his president and not hijack/abuse the very powerful CBN governor position to use as a tool for self and crony aggrandizement as the filthy Emefiele symbolises.

Sanusi Lamido is pro-people and already buys into what Tinubu is proposing that is radical but needed to transform how Nigeria manages her economic potential, monetary policy and the advantageous use of the Naira by her citizens.

My personal opinion though that assumes SLS is available and interested.

Sanusi committed some basic errors in how he managed the exchange rate and this was in many respects a major source of the currency instability we experienced after his tenure.

We had multiple exchange rates during Sanusi's tenure but with high oil prices, the spread between the official and the black market rates was narrow.

The biggest error he committed, in my view, was using forex reserves to stabilise the Naira (the exchange rate was stable during his tenure). This is defensible if you are certain that oil prices (the most important source of forex inflows) will remain high. This of course turned out not be the case and ended up making the adjustment to lower oil prices more painful.

In my view, you need a monetary economist as the CBN governor. This would be an expert in monetary policy but Nigeria has few of these.

The only Nigerian monetary economist I know is Ayo Teriba but I don't know if he is suitable for the job.

mrvitalis:

The fundamental issue with Nigerians ( majority ) leaders n citizens is this ...we mostly font know the difference between symptoms of a problem and a problem ....this right up is evident of that

The CBN governor couldn't have done much really ...the finance minister and the president economic teams are to be blamed

Using scarce foreign exchange to do political jamboree n construction of projects that are 1) super super inflated 2) that is not financially sustainable 3) poorly sited based on sentiments landed us here

You borrowed 40 billion dollars or so ...80% was used to enrich politicians the 20% used for projects

None of those projects can even financially support themselves

You are broke ,u had the chance to borrow money instead of using the money to create something that can generate revenue for u ....you are 80% ...used the remaining 20% to buy liabilities

Then you turn around to blame your wife for not being frugal for your kitchen expenses

The Op like osibanjo in 2019 in his debate against Peter obi don't even understand the problem


Sad thing is Tinubu would do exactly the same thing just with more corruption more grammar

The CBN governor was complicit as he pursued policies that are inimical to economic growth: fixed exchange regime, import restrictions, chaotic naira currency note replacement.

Now, you can claim these policies would have been implemented anyway even if Emefiele resigned. That, I would agree with but the fact is that he never acted honorably and sullied his reputation by being the public face of central bank incompetence.

N3TRAL:
I supported Bola Ahmad Tinubu because I believe in a free market I believe his reorganisation of Nigeria will promote.

If Igbo people work hard while Yorubas are waiting for Government welfare and special treatment for "accommodating" others, they Igbo people will live better in the next four years.

If Yoruba people welcome investors while the South East lock up the region by insurrection, incessant sit-at-home orders and a parallel government, the Yoruba people will live better in the next four years.

The work of the new government is to ensure that students in public schools will finish a four year course before the fifth year.

The work of the new government is to ensure that electricity improves across the country greatly and Nigeria can refine 80% of the petroleum the country consumes.

The work of the new government is to drive public - private partnerships that will create necessary jobs for those who are not business oriented and decongest the overcrowded public service.

The work of the new government is to provide incentives for startups and open channels for international trade to balance our payment for trade.

The work of the new government is to build an army to end insurgency and islamism in the Savannah.

If you no work, you no go chop whether you are from Ibadan or Daura

There is still this idea people have that if we get our son into government, he will "share the money" with his fellow tribes people whilst the others are left to rot. It's a boneheaded zero-sum thinking that underpins some of the tribalism you see here.

Like you indicate, the measures of success partly lie in delivering an enabling environment for private enterprise to thrive. To my mind, that environment includes strong security forces to curb insecurity, adherence to the rule of law, deregulation to reduce government interference, etc.

There is not much mystery to this. The calculation is that it is more politically beneficial to bash an Igbo person/Igbos than it is to bash those of a core North extraction.

The idea is to appeal to ethnic/religious sentiment and resentment (the modus operandi of Nigerian political strategising) by uniting against the "scheming" and "devious" Igbos.

You can have 2 events occur in a day, a massacre by herdsmen and a controversial comment by a prominent Igbo person. The comment will dominate the news cycle and the massacre will be relegated to a minor news story not worthy of discussion.

There is not much logic to it beyond finding a common enemy.

It's a far cry from the 2008 peak. The demise of oil and gas investment has not been replaced.

Fuel subsidy will need to go as it distorts markets, disincentives investment and the FG cannot afford it given how much debt it has incurred.

That being said, its impact on inflation will be brutal so I would recommend it's phased out instead of taken off in one go.

The amount of suffering that awaits Nigerians in the coming years will be unprecedented.

Inflation will be brutal if subsidy is removed but it has to be done. If 2 policy reforms Tinubu has suggested are implemented - subsidy removal and removal of multiple exchange rates - the immediate impact will be inflationary.

To curb inflation, the CBN will need to hike interest rates even further which will add to the economic difficulties.

At the same time, the incoming government is facing a fiscal crisis as debt expense takes up almost all of tax revenue. This will call for higher tax revenues and lower government spending. Again, these are immediately contractionary reducing economic growth in the short-term.

The government may choose to not implement any of its reforms instead and just drift aimlessly for the next few years. I think it's a problem that the APC government has its power base effectively in the North (the South West is an aberration in the South). There's not much stomach for deregulation amongst Northern politicians so it will be interesting to see how Tinubu navigates through this.

All I can say is I am glad I don't live in Nigeria.

A big issue with these sorts of videos is that draw attention to extent of cognitive decline Tinubu has suffered as he's aged. You can see there is a sharp contrast between the young Tinubu (articulate and intellectually sound) and present day Tinubu who struggles to express himself.

It makes me think a lot of people backing him do soin the hope this will be a repeat of the Yar'Adua scenario with Shettima taking over if Tinubu can't complete his tenure.

Corona22:
I’m actually a history student , and I do understand exactly what’s going from both sides, this is not my first time trying to converse with Igbo people , though the ones I spoke to are far more reasonable than the ones I’m speaking to here

Not sure how useful this is for you but my framework for understanding ethnicism is that it's a pathology that pretty much every Sub-Saharan African ethnic group possesses. Each ethnic group generally believes that they are the good ones and it's other ethnic group(s) that are ruining everything. Never mind that before colonialism redrew political boundaries, all ethnic groups were pretty much developmentally backwards relative to development strides outside Africa. So it's important to realise how commonplace this is, how this is something one can hardly be surprised by.

Here is another insight, even if you had ethnically homogeneous states, this pathology will simply be chanelled into intra-ethnic strife. Talk of Igbo domination will be quickly replaced by Ijebu domination for instance, North/Yoruba marginalisation of Igbos will be replaced by talk of domination by Anambra, etc. The objects of hatred will change but the pathology of hatred won't change. Afterall, ethnic identities as they currently exist are just a construct that developed as a way to channel this mistrust. Before the British colonized Nigeria, each of these ethnic groups were engaged in major intra-ethnic wars.

It brings me to the question of why this pathology exists. To a large extent, Africans are a low trust people who inhabit low trust societies. There is a concise Wikipedia summary of these concepts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_trust_and_low_trust_societies. Living in a climate of perpetual distrust, people see plots everywhere - GBV is running for Governor as part of an Igbo plot, Buhari is pursuing an Islamist agenda. Unfortunately, I don't think there is a magic solution for breaking the cycle of mistrust.

What I advocate is that people try and focus on national challenges and how we can overcome them without resorting to solutions that invariably entail blaming the various ethnicities. How do we solve the problems of poverty, insecurity, corruption, inflation, etc? In addressing these challenges, the answers won't lie in tribal bashing. Unfortunately, the likelihood that Nigerians will grow out of our tribal-focused hate-mongering thought processes is very slim but you have to keep trying.

tensazangetsu20:
Well for the sake of tinubus supporters I really hope tinubu ends up being a good president. But he won't, even peter obi wont have been a good president if he had won. No matter who wins, inflation, poverty and hardship will only continue to increase in Nigeria. You can never lose betting against Nigeria to get worst and taking life changing decisions on the basis of a better Nigeria is the most idiotic thing anyone can do.

This.

The next few years will discredit anyone who takes the reins in Aso Rock. We only experience significant economic growth in this country when there is a commodities/oil price boom which is unlikely to materialise in the next few years.

The sole source of hope is that no one can be as bad as Buhari.

XY23:


Fiscal prudence I am afraid can't be the thrust of APC (BAT's) government. That is why the possible outcome of his tenure is predictable. Profligacy would sink Nigeria deeper, based on its current debt burden and export index. We see the facts, are but always quick to ignore them but prefer wishful thinking instead.

I will argue that they have no choice but to cut spending and raise taxes. When tax revenue matches debt expense, you have to implement fiscal austerity.

One way round it is to borrow even more from the CBN which is what has been happening in the last few years. But this fuels inflation and distorts the debt/capital markets.

I think the best solution is that a major IMF loan will have to be taken to inject forex, lower debt expense (at least in the short-term), and restore confidence in the economy and amongst investors.

Whoever won the presidency, the next few years will be tougher for Nigerians as the present government has left a few ticking time-bombs for its successor.

Nigerian politics is about tribe/personality/religion. All these profiles posted, but no one will tell you what policy programs the elected governors will bring to the table. How is he different from past governors/his opponents?

grandstar:


If Tinubu's government can achieve an average growth rate of about 8% annually over the next 8 years, increase tax revenue to about 11% of the economy from the paltry 6% today and increase non-oil exports to 50% of total exports, it could be regarded as a good performance.

The country's overdependence on oil revenue for at least 75% of its exports and 75% of budget revenue are perhaps the biggest problems the economy faces.

Just making both the petrol price and Naira exchange flexible again would bring about some much fiscal sanity. A market reflective exchange rate would boost growth to ateast 6%.

It would be fantastic if Nigeria followed the path of Centeal European economies by slashing both corporate and personally income taxes to very business friendly rate. A corporate tax rate of 15% should do, even when the 2% education tax is included.

Your thoughts please.

I wish it were true but I don't believe that 8% growth per year growth for the next 8 years is achievable.

In Nigeria, periods of strong growth often coincided with periods of big increases in global commodity (mainly oil) prices - the 1970s with the Arab oil embargo, the 2000s with China's entry into the WTO and oil prices going from a low $9 p/b in 1999 to circa $100 by 2011/12, and the 1960s post-independence boom with the discovery of oil deposits. It highlights that much of Nigeria's growth thus far is simply riding the tail winds of commodity rallies.

I think the last 8 years has seen Nigeria dig a big hole for itself which is severely underestimated. Presently, tax revenues barely covers debt expense so the first task will need to be ensuring fiscal stability. I don't believe you are going to see a big uplift in taxes. People extrapolating from the Lagos experience in the immediate period from 1999 are being naive. Nigeria as a whole saw a big increase in tax revenues and GDP from 1999 as the economy's size went from $50bn to a peak of circa $570bn in 2013/14 and the country's economic capital benefited immensely from that. There is no reason to assume this, or anything remotely close, will repeat itself.

You are right that deregulation of petrol and exchange rates will reduce the fiscal burden and the latter should boost non-oil exports (all things being equal). The reality also is that in the short run, it will cause a lot of adjustment pain by fueling even higher inflation which the CBN will need to counter by hiking up interest rates. So this monetary offset, if combined with more fiscal prudence (lower government spending and higher tax intake), will counter the growth boosting effects from deregulation. I can't see where you get your 8% growth from.

My proposal will be to do the exchange rate deregulation first. Negotiate a huge IMF loan/debt rescheduling agreement with creditors to boost forex inflow, investor confidence and fiscal sustainability. We can phase out petrol subsidy by year 2 or 3.

We then need to run a big privatisation effort with the ports, NNPC etc (the IMF will insist on this anyway). Again, this can boost forex inflow and investor confidence.

The total net effects of the above won't boost growth immediately but it will begin to unravel some of the policy errors we have been making over the years.

PS: One thing that scares me about Tinubu is that his one big idea for the economy is that we should print more money so we can spend more. That is utterly insane and there is not much else I can add on that.