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Business / Re: Nigeria's Four Refineries To Begin Operation Next Month - NNPC by 4Play(m): 4:20pm On Aug 14 |
These old threads remind me of how deeply ingrained misinformation is in Nigeria and of the desperation Nigerians have for good news. On the first page, those celebrating the "news", whether GEJ or Buhari supporters, got the most likes. Those expressing skepticism, and who turned out to be right, received the fewest likes. 1 Like |
Foreign Affairs / Kenyan President Removes Budget For First Lady by 4Play(m): 2:04pm On Jul 05 |
BREAKING: Kenyan president William Ruto removes budgets for offices of First Lady, Second Lady and dissolves 47 state agencies after 3 weeks of anti-government protests. https://gazettengr.com/just-in-ruto-scraps-budget-for-first-ladys-office-dissolves-40-agencies-amid-protests/ Makes a lot of sense. If you are asking your countrymen to make sacrifices, that you demonstrate that you are prepared to cut the cost of governance. 1 Like |
Politics / As Nigeria's Gasoline Debt Hits $6 Billion, Some Traders Back Out by 4Play(m): 3:05am On Jul 05 |
Nigeria's debt to gasoline suppliers has surpassed $6 billion - doubling since early April - as state oil firm NNPC struggles to cover the gap between fixed pump prices and international fuel costs, six industry sources said. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nigerias-gasoline-debt-hits-6-billion-some-traders-back-out-say-sources-2024-07-04/ 1 Like
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Politics / Re: FG Clears $850 Million Debt To European Airlines by 4Play(m): 8:11am On Jul 04 |
To foster the false narrative of progress, news is circulated which is portrayed as unprecedented positive developments but which are in fact a replay of the past: Here is an article from 2017 LAGOS, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Nigeria's central bank has sold $660 million in three- and five- month currency forwards at an auction aimed at clearing a backlog of dollar demand, traders said on Wednesday. https://www.reuters.com/article/world/africa/nigeria-sells-660-mln-forwards-to-clear-backlog-of-dollar-demand-traders-idUSL5N1FM3B8/ Here is another from 2018: The International Air Transport Association on Tuesday announced that Nigeria had cleared the backlog of $600m trapped funds belonging to foreign airlines operating in the country. https://stocksng.com/nigeria-clears-foreign-airlines-600m-trapped-funds/ In summary, Nigeria is always clearing FX backlogs and will continue doing so if the naira/inflation problem is not arrested. |
Business / Re: Interest Rate At 30% Will Stifle Growth, Hinder Job Creation - Dangote Warns CBN by 4Play(m): 7:47am On Jul 03 |
Realtruth2023: FG budgeted spending was N5 trillion in 2015, N21 trillion in Buhari's last budget and N28 trillion in Tinubu's first budget. Absolutely, the growth in naira spending is a major fuel of inflation. This is why CBN money printing ("ways and means" took off under Emefiele to enable FG to continue spending. When you combine an injection of naira supply into an economy already witnessing a reduction in dollar inflow from oil exports, you have a recipe for naira collapse and further inflation. Stabilising inflation requires monetary tightening through raising rates otherwise it becomes lucrative to borrow in naira to buy dollars. Of course, all this would be futile if government spending isn't reined in. But a combined fiscal and monetary tightening is needed in Nigeria. https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/economy/chartoftheday-proposed-vs-approved-budgets-of-nigeria/ |
Politics / Re: 60 Minimum Wage Is Too Too Much. Strike to reduce senators salary instead by 4Play(m): 7:29am On Jul 03 |
grandstar: Total deregulation of petrol is fine in the long run but doing that now will fuel inflation in the short run and can introduce an unstable inflation dynamic that will negate any positives. If you combine that with increasing minimum wage - which is a direct transmission of cash to people's pockets - you have all the ingredients to further fuel inflation. They need to focus on stabilising government spending (outside of fuel subsidy). I think Tinubu's first budget called for N28 trn, a rise of N7 trn from Buhari's last budget. This budget, if I understand it, doesn't include the fuel subsidy budget. Any major increase in naira spending is likely to add to inflation. With fuel subsidy, one way of smoothing the transition to zero subsidy and offseting the inflationary effects could be to introduce a cap on spending which can be lowered each subsequent year. Say N2 trillion in year 1, N1 trillion in year 2, and zero in year 3. The main shortfall I see in this, though, is the possibility of fuel scarcity at the end of each year if people know they can sell at higher prices the next year. But the aggregate effect is likely to make the transition to total deregulation less inflationary. They need, and this is unavoidable, to get a large forex loan. Best source would be the IMF. This will alleviate the CBN's forex scarcity problem. $10bn will be the minimum needed, possibly more. This should have been one of the first things to do, if not the first. On inflation, I think they have done well with increasing CBN's interest rates. It's difficult to guage what the inflation rate actually is as the official estimates might be underestimating it but you should not have interest rates below the rate of inflation. That is just a recipe for more inflation. If they could also sell all those government assets as a recent Punch editorial called for, that will be a good debt-free source of forex. These would include sea and air ports, their NNPC assets (including refineries), TCN and PHCN etc. Whether they can pull these off without selling them at firesale prices to cronies/themselves is a major question though. Ultimately, I don't think this government has the integrity and nous to address the key economic challenges facing the country unless they are forced to. With subsidy and naira exchange rate partial deregulation, I think they had no choice so had to do something. Where they don't feel compelled, they will carry on business as usual, concentrating on acquiring resources to stay in power. |
Politics / Re: Economy: Time For Talking Over For Tinubu - Punch Editorial by 4Play(m): 6:54am On Jul 03 |
They need to sell those government owned assets through a fair and transparent process. Whether Tinubu and the thieves he sorrounds himself with are capable of doing this is a major question. By selling the assets, the government will signal to international investors that it is committed to reforms. It will also enable Nigeria obtain an injection of forex which will further assist in stabilising naira. Additionally, I don't see how they can get away without getting a large forex loan to stabilise the naira. 2 Likes |
Crime / Re: Man Jailed For Taking Off Condom During Sex by 4Play(m): 3:52am On Jun 14 |
This convicted man was able to claim asylum in the UK in 2002 by claiming he was a child, being under 18, at the time. 2. The appellant was born on 29 November 1984 or so he asserts. The Secretary of State did not believe that this was the appellant's true date of birth. He treated the appellant as an adult and he was interviewed about his claim on 21 March 2002. The respondent did not believe the account given by the appellant and for the reasons set out fully in the decision letter dated 27 March 2002 he refused his claim on both asylum and human rights grounds. https://tribunalsdecisions.service.gov.uk/utiac/38776 1 Like |
Crime / Man Jailed For Taking Off Condom During Sex by 4Play(m): 4:01pm On Jun 13 |
A man has been jailed for four years and three months in a rare conviction for “stealthing” – taking a condom off during sex without consent. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jun/13/london-man-jailed-stealthing-removing-condom-without-consent 4 Likes 1 Share
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Celebrities / Re: Burna Boy Shares 10m To University Of Port Harcourt Students by 4Play(m): 1:05pm On Jun 12 |
VeeVeeMyLuv: This is an uninformed take. To cause inflation, you need to inject trillions of naira. So something like a new much higher minimum wage can add to inflation but not giving out N10 million. 2 Likes |
Politics / Re: IMF: Nigeria Account Balance Surplus Hits ₦1.432 Billion by 4Play(m): 6:22pm On Jun 05 |
With Nigerian news,you always need to put it in context. $1.4bn does not give you a proper perspective without considering surpluses and deficits run recently. Nigeria’s current account balance rose to a 9-year high of $7.7 billion in the first half of 2022, five times higher than the $1.13 billion recorded in the second half of last year. https://nairametrics.com/2022/10/05/nigerias-current-account-balance-rises-to-9-year-high-of-7-7-billion-in-h1-2022/ 2 Likes |
Politics / Re: 60 Minimum Wage Is Too Too Much. Strike to reduce senators salary instead by 4Play(m): 6:18pm On Jun 03 |
People don't understand that part of why Nigeria is in this mess are the relentless rises in minimum wages which government can't sustain. To pay for them, they rely on CBN printing money to lend to the government which results in further naira depreciation and an increase in inflation. Over the long run, Nigerians end up worse off. |
Education / Re: Nigerian Students In UK Seek Help From Food Charity by 4Play(m): 5:30am On Jun 01 |
FreeStuffsNG: You just wanted to mock Nigerians abroad because you are stuck with the hellhole government you have been supporting. Are millions of Nigerians not suffering from the rapid currency depreciation your government has overseen? Depreciation has helped fuel inflation as the country is import-dependent. 28 Likes 1 Share |
Politics / Nigerian Students Thrown Out Of UK University by 4Play(m): 1:15pm On May 22 |
Nigerian students at a UK university say they are devastated after some were thrown off their course and ordered to leave the UK when they got behind on their fees because of a currency crash. https://www.theguardian.com/education/article/2024/may/22/nigerian-students-teesside-university-ordered-to-leave-uk-naira-currency-crash |
Crime / Abusive Husband Killed Wife With Skateboard by 4Play(m): 2:02pm On Apr 25 |
An abusive husband beat his wife to death with their son's skateboard while police outside waited for permission to enter from superiors. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13349449/Abusive-husband-beat-wife-death-skateboard.html 2 Likes 1 Share
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Politics / Re: Filling Stations Are Selling Petrol At N110: Why? by 4Play(m): 1:57pm On Mar 10 |
There were at least 2 comments on that first page speaking highly of Venezuela. This was in 2012. Look what happened to Venezuela shortly after and what is happening to Nigeria now: Venezuela is introducing economic reforms including new banknotes that lop five zeros off its fast-depreciating currency as the country battles hyperinflation. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/20/venezuela-bolivars-hyperinflation-banknotes |
Business / Re: Countries Where Binance Is Banned, Restricted (Full List) by 4Play(m): 2:08pm On Mar 02 |
Binance is banned in those countries to protect customers from excessive losses due to crypto volatility and scams. Nigeria is taking action against Binance to use it as excuse in a blame game regarding naira's collapse. 1 Like |
Politics / Re: The Irrationality Of The CBN Interest Rate Hike by 4Play(m): 9:22am On Mar 01 |
DevilsEqual: This argument, that Nigeria is exceptional and so standard or "textbook" economic theories don't work in Nigeria is an often trotted out claim that has only served to justify some of the most bone-headed policies you will ever see. Nigeria is not exceptional when it comes to the understanding that if central bank interest rates are way below the rate of inflation, the rate of inflation cannot be curtailed. If these people disagree, please give us examples of where significant and protracted high inflation was resolved without raising rates. Of course, businesses need low interest rates. But if consumers are suffering from inflation and the currency is losing value, businesses are not going to invest. Where were the business investments when rates were lower? In this environment, if I run a business and you lend me money at low interest rates, the best returns I can make would be gained by finding a way to convert my money into dollars and waiting a few years for naira to lose value to the dollar and I can pay back the naira denominated loan. The reality is that low interest rates makes it very profitable to swap naira for dollars. If you are a saver in naira, your savings lose value and is not offset by the interest rates you get on your savings. You cannot stimulate your economy out of an inflation crisis. I also agree that increasing rates is not enough as you need to curtail government spending growth which I think is a key driver of inflation in Nigeria. The thinking, as with low interest rates, that you can stimulate growth through government spending which we have seen implemented since 2015 has always been flawed. The late economist, Rudi Dornbusch, touched on this in relation to Latin America: Again and again, Latin America has seen the populist scenario played to an unfortunate end. Upon gaining power, populist governments attempt to revive the economy through massive spending. After an initial recovery, inflation reemerges and the government responds with wage an price controls. Shortages, overvaluation, burgeoning deficits, and capital flight soon precipitate economic crisis, with a subsequent collapse of the populist regime. https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/macroeconomics-populism-latin-america Don't claim that Nigeria is exceptional. 3 Likes 2 Shares |
Politics / Re: CBN’s 22.5% Interest Rate Will Worsen Economic Situation – Peter Obi by 4Play(m): 2:25pm On Feb 29 |
Very disappointingly ignorant comments from Peter Obi. Maybe he wants to oppose everything the government does for the sake of it. Expansionary monetary policy including rapid increases in the money supply and negative real rates (the difference between inflation rate and MPR) is one of the main drivers of inflation and currency depreciation in Nigeria. 2 Likes 1 Share |
Politics / Re: Wale Edun's Plans To Improve The Nigerian Economy by 4Play(m): 10:40am On Feb 24 |
Collaborating with CBN by increasing interest rates to attract FPI. I find this to be short-sighted if attracting hot money is the perceived benefit of raising interest rates and not the reduction of inflation, & FDI. Also, our real interest rates are still negative, so how will this work? ❌ Increasing interest rates is vital as a way to cool inflation as you can't fight inflation with interest rates which are below the rate of inflation. Attracting portfolio inflows would be an added bonus. In addition, they need to curb government spending and money supply growth as this is fueling inflation and Naira depreciation. Increasing the supply of naira leads to increased demand for dollars. So it's not so much about directing spending to the poor (if they can do that, great) but curbing the growth in government spending. PS: Ultimately, they need a quick and sizeable injection of forex which they can source from the IMF. 10 Likes |
Politics / Re: Nigeria’s Money Supply Hits New All-Time High Of ₦93.72 Trillion In January 2024 by 4Play(m): 8:58am On Feb 24 |
IamAtikulate: If they wanted to know what are the key drivers of inflation and Naira depreciation, this money supply growth is one of the major causes. Here is what an article on hyperinflation has to say about a characteristic of this phenomenon: By and large, these episodes all occurred because of a rapid (or accelerating) increase in the supply of money that wasn't matched by a corresponding increase in goods and services. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2012/08/21/great-hyperinflation-episodes-in-history-and-what-they-tell-us-about-the-fed/ Production of goods and services, nor the availability of the dollar, hasn't suddenly increased in Nigeria so this money supply growth has to be "accommodated" through higher prices for the same goods and services and for the dollar (lower naira value). |
Politics / Re: Please What's Causing The Rise In Cement Price? by 4Play(m): 10:58am On Feb 17 |
Who remembers this thread? https://www.nairaland.com/7842393/bua-moves-crash-cement-price Apparently, the cement price rise problem was resolved in September 2023: Those Igbos brains is fvcked up. |
Politics / Re: Group Of Primary School Students Came Out Asking Thunder To Strike On Tinubu by 4Play(m): 10:54am On Feb 17 |
AntiZikist: So in your mind you are a winner? This sort of imbecility should be studied by PhD students in the future. You are bragging online when many of your relatives are struggling to make ends meet. 2 Likes |
Health / Nigerian Nurses In The UK Embroiled In Qualification Scandal by 4Play(m): 10:07am On Feb 14 |
NHS nurses being investigated for ‘industrial-scale’ qualifications fraud https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/feb/14/nhs-nurses-being-investigated-for-industrial-scale-qualifications 6 Likes 1 Share
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Politics / Re: How Nigeria’s Economy Nosedived In 10 Years by 4Play(m): 5:33pm On Feb 11 |
The average figure for 2014 was 8.1 percent. The inflation figure was 8 percent in January and ended with 8 percent. While in 2015, the average inflation rate was 9.01 percent with 8.2 percent recorded in January and ended in December with 9.55 percent. I remember posting multiple times in 2015 and 2016 about this. The crazy expansion in government spending from 2015 onwards in the mistaken belief that it will stimulate the economy was very wrong-headed. You can't stimulate your way out of a forex scarcity which Nigeria began to experience from the 2nd half of 2014. To make matters worse, they put in place a fixed exchange rate system which deterred forex inflows and distorted the market even more. 36 Likes 3 Shares |
Health / Re: Nigerians Turn To Traditional Healers As Prices Of Drugs Go Out Of Reach by 4Play(m): 2:22pm On Feb 11 |
christejames: See below: Catapault: 6 Likes |
Foreign Affairs / Re: African Countries Should Be Recolonised Because Their Leaders Are Corrupt – Erik by 4Play(m): 2:13pm On Feb 11 |
Our leaders are incompetent and corrupt and in large part are a reflection of the kind of people we are. But what we are going through is part of the learning process. After many missteps, we learn the hard way what mistakes to avoid. |
Politics / Re: Why Blame Tinubu For Inflation When Obi Vowed To End Subsidy “On Day One”? by 4Play(m): 10:52am On Feb 11 |
The OP's question only makes sense if you believe that all that is driving inflation is subsidy. In reality, inflation is also driven by the scale of the increase in government spending (FG budget went from N21 trillion in 2023, from N4.5 trillion in 2015, to N28 trillion budgeted for 2024). The increase in naira supply drives demand for dollars. Monetary policy is also too loose, CBN interest rates should not be below the rate of inflation. But when you have a CBN governor appointed partly because he was part of Tinubu's inner circle, it erodes the independence of the central bank which is necessary to restore central bank credibility. Loose monetary policy loosens the appeal of holding naira as inflation erodes the value and you can't get interest rates that offsets inflation. Psychology also drives forex markets and electing an APC stalwart who has been making noise in the past about spending to drive growth (including suggesting printing naira) and who has a chequered personal history (to put it mildly) does a lot to cement the perception that Nigeria is not turning a new leaf and will sustain with its reputation as a corruption-riddled kakistocracy. All 3 candidates would have reduced subsidy as there was no choice given the fiscal hole the country has dug itself into. Even Buhari, if he was elected to a 3rd term, would have done same. But by failing to tackle all the other issues I have referred to as we are witnessing today, it's made the situation a lot worse. 3 Likes 1 Share |
Politics / Re: Respite For Businesses As ‘sit-at-home’ In S/east Fades by 4Play(m): 9:59am On Feb 11 |
IPOB's appeal lay in the perception that they were a means of counteracting the perceived threat of Fulanis. With Buhari no longer in power, their appeal has diminished. The sort of people who filled the ranks of IPOB (poorly educated young men) were indoctrinated to resent the Muslim north. |
Politics / Re: Citizens Groan As Rice Hits N77,000 Per Bag by 4Play(m): 9:30am On Feb 11 |
The official inflation figure from the National Bureau Statistics is a lie. My guess is that inflation has gone far higher than captured in the data as naira depreciation gathered pace amplified by the reduction of fuel subsidy. 1 Like |
Politics / Re: Hunger Protests: Why Tinubu Can’t Govern Like Buhari By Farooq A. Kperogi by 4Play(m): 3:11pm On Feb 10 |
Everydaylove: This is one of the things that annoys me with the Tinubu fan club who place blame on Buhari for today's situation. Without Tinubu's staunch support for the 8 years of Buhari's regime and before, Buhari would not have wreaked the havoc he did. To now suggest that he should be given more time to clean up Buhari's mess beggars belief. He traded his countrymen's well being, literally their lives, for his own personal ambition to be president. One cannot separate today's circumstances from the people who facilitated it. 3 Likes 1 Share |
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