tiger28:
Have you NOTICED the PEACEFUL attitudes of the POLITICIANS on the losing side of the recent edo election Visa Ban is the BEST weapon against Nigerian Politicians. See HOW they are trying to use gra gra with UK Most of their Children are either Schooling in the US or UK and some have homes and business there too. They don't need this wahala.......FOOLS!!!!

It's not enough to persuade them when the stakes are high. If the choice is between having political power and the wealth it brings on the one hand, or losing access to this via free and fair elections on the other, a lot of politicians will choose the former even if it means visa ban. They can also still fly to Dubai, Australia, Monaco, the Caribbean, etc

Just saw this on Twitter. Part of the Trump administration's racist policies.

It's important to note that under these proposals, you can still study for a four year degree as a Nigerian but you will have to renew your visa after every 2 years.

This is why it's hard to trade stocks, had an inkling something was brewing with GameStop but wasn't entirely persuaded.

(Bloomberg) -- Ryan Cohen, the entrepreneur who built Chewy.com into a pet-supply giant and sold it for more than $3 billion, is now pitching GameStop Corp. on a lofty goal: becoming a true competitor to Amazon.com Inc., according to a person familiar with the matter.

The video-game retailer’s shares jumped as much as 28% in premarket trading Tuesday, after Bloomberg News reported Cohen’s plans late Monday.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/top-gamestop-investor-wants-turn-232245844.html

Keinding:



Hey!
Though your question was for others to answer, let me add a few pointers fundamentally...
In the EV space and indeed the broader start up scene, three things to note:

1) proof of concept: On this Nikola fails. There's no proof that shows this product in reality. All talk here is future tense. It's hard for investors to be swayed by something that is simply design aesthetic. At least we see tesla with the roadster,cybertruk etc
We see Hyllion with a proof of concept that actually works.

2) Scalability: Nikola has not shown any roadmap on how they intend to scale their trucks. How fast can they scale orders of thousands when such are demanded? Where's the factory? What is existing currently? How can they react to demand and supply?

3) Good management: As we all know, mgt can make or mar your investment and that is why investors take time to buy into the person behind the product before they buy into the product or company itself(e.g take a look at the board of Hyllion, then you have Elon Musk for Tesla)
I'm not convinced Trevor is the right person to take this company to the moon as his actions and utterances leave much to be desired.

Their last earnings shows profit of $36k for a car company and wait for it, the profit was from something not related to car sales!

I still maintain it's a speculative play at best and I have no interest in buying based on the above pointers.

Invest wisely!!

This is a good concise analysis of Nikola. It's something we should do more of - weigh the pros and cons of each company.

I am still swayed by the deal they did with GM and you will think GM had done their due diligence on Nikola. But I don't know much about the deal so it might not say much about Nikola's credibility.

An update into the Nikola fraud investigations:

RabbiDoracle:


Sheer luck? Hmmm...

Hope you know people do research to find the directions prices will take? The researches are backtested and fine-tuned to match other asset classes.

So Renaissance Technologies strategy is sheer luck?

Have you heard of Chaos Theory before?

Let me simplify it for you. When protesters move on the road, they usually move in a haphazard form if you are viewing them on the ground. However, if you are viewing with a Drone, you tend to see a pattern of straight lines or huge circle formed my large mass of people.

Price movement can be haphazard at first glance, randomized or chaotic to some. But a careful look at it will show you a tradable pattern which gives some smart money managers good gains.

Stock investing has evolved. No longer like what we knew in the past.

There is a big difference between the Ed Seykotas and Jim Simons (Renaissance Technologies) of this world and the vast majority of investors.

It's one thing for a group of MIT maths PhDs to find patterns, the rest of us can't find tradable patterns even if we spent our whole lives looking for it.

Be also aware that the human mind is inclined to find patterns even where there are none. This is how our mind imposes a sense of order, it's a type of heuristic we deploy. There was a great book by Nicholas Taleb called Fooled by Randomness which highlights all this. It is mathematically probable that given millions of people trading/investing, some are going to enjoy wild success just down to randomness.

My take is that randomness explains a lot of our (ordinary investors) success in bull markets. I pointed out some time ago that if you closed your eyes and randomly selected stocks out of a list of SP500 stocks since March, the vast majority would bag you profits. The problem is obviously that over a long timeframe, you are likely to underperform the indexes.

Atouke:
They all have bank Accounts, kids and relations in US, EU and UK , The ban also include those . That's why they are scared. For Nigerian Politicians now, if you rig elections, your bank accounts in oyibo land will be frozen, your kids in Oyibo schools will be sent home and your relations will be banned from entry into oyibo land and the politicians themselves will not be able to go for medical check up Abroad.

this is scary stuff for Nigerian politicians, that why they are wary of rigging.

This is one of the major reasons the APC rigging machine went to sleep on this election, no politician wants to risk being banned by oyibo

There is a possibility of all that but it can be challenged in UK or US courts. I think politicians will keep rigging but in a less brazen fashion. If they don't rig, many will be powerless and risk facing the wrath of our legal system. Faced with such a choice, some will keep rigging in the same way Mugabe continued despite western sanctions.

A chimp that chose her portfolio of Internet stocks by chucking darts at a list of companies has been hailed a financial whizz kid by her keeper. Six-year-old Raven delivered a 213 per cent gain on 1999 outperforming most of the yuppies on Wall Street. Indeed, had she been employed at a Wall Street Mutual Fund, it's claimed her performance would have ranked as the 22nd best money manager in the country -- outperforming more than 6,000 Wall Street pros.

https://www.theregister.com/2000/01/13/wall_st_chumps_lose_out/

This story is insightful as it highlights that positive market returns in bull markets are just as attributable to randomness as to skills. We often make money in the stock market, like this year, through sheer luck and not skill. Of course the monkey's [b]returns will deteriorate over a longer length of time,[/b]same as our returns. So being cautious, less egotistical, and upgrading our skills/knowledge will be beneficial.

RabbiDoracle:




It is not just about saying that there is a good chance that there will be a fall based on the uncertainties. It is discovering it on time and reversing your trades (close longs, open short). This is what smart investors do.

The investing landscape has changed and the world of investing would come you if you don't change with it. More like survival of the fit.

You are not that pessimistic because you don't know where it was coming from, neither do you know where it is going to. If you have arrays of data that you look at, then you will understand that Ike gwuru.

For now, make I keep kwayet and watch.

I have long reduced to mainly cash position in August but if I think there is a huge sell off coming, I will add shorts to hedge/profit. All my remaining positions, apart from one, are long-term holdings

Right now, it's only people over-exposed with more money than they can afford to lose or have a lot of "one-chance" stocks (high volatility and high risk) that should worry.

Besides, stop scaring people, have you not read on here that if you keep buying stocks after "due diligence", you will become rich?

RabbiDoracle:


Any upswing on SP500 will be sold into and will not last.

It will revert to the mean of 1,800.

By then those investors still hanging on will exclaim : ike gwuru!

Prophet of Doom

There is a good chance of markets declining with all the uncertainties out there but I am not that pessimistic.

BullBearMkt:

@4Play, a good buy of LRCX. The stock seems ready for a buy swing trade...

With the 2 week LRCX candlestick showing bullish engulf, Lam Research Corporation may be ready to rally up to re-visit the Bearish Order Candle ( BOC ) at $347.19. Depending on market open on Monday, a gap-up above current price would likely be good to enter the stock at 306.22 while gap-down below current price might be good above 292. There is possibility for the stock price to drop to 270.

Risk: Market sentiment remains bearish .

I am holding this for the long term (I always say that and get excited and take profits early). But in all seriousness, I think it's a quality company to buy and hold for a few years and I would only reconsider if the policy/economic environment were to severely deteriorate.

As for the technicals, you are right. It does look like a potential inflection point has developed. I am a keen user of simple moving averages (SMA), particularly the 50, 100 and 200 at day, week, and month intervals. It's held up okay at the 200-day SMA but it's still delicately poised as not much buying has occurred, it's merely kinda gone sideways, bouncing between the 100-day SMA and the 200-day SMA.

Hey! Has anyone else seen how Gamestop performed? I got out early because the fundamentals have sucked but my instincts about the technicals seem to have been vindicated. Rabbi The Oracle thought it was going to $2 when it fell to $6 but it closed the week at $9.47. See screenshot below - that breakout from consolidation on large volume was partly what prompted me to do a quick trade:

Madibahisback:
Nothing good comes out of this state

The frequency of reporting criminality isn't necessarily indicative of the actual frequency of criminality.

There could be any number of reasons why bad news from Ogun state gets reported on a lot: proximity to Lagos and major news outlets, higher population, higher internet usage/communication, ethnic animus (even intra-ethnic resentment of Egbas), etc.

If a crime happens in one village in Nasarawa, you are probably less likely to hear of it (unless it can be attributed to Fulani) than if it happens in Abeokuta.

seyisanya:
I tire ooo. The other day one was sounding like a broken record, preaching an extreme conservative approach to investing in the stock market, only to come back again that he also bought some individual stocks at some point.

We have to understand that there is no one-way approach to making money in the stock market. I don't know the number of times we need to re-emphasize that everyone should do what works for them!

It's obvious from your posts that you have 2 severe shortcomings: investing experience and comprehension ability.

You haven't been in the market long enough to realise how difficult stock picking is and to acquaint yourself with the fact that passive investing, what you call an extremely conservative approach, is to the contrary, a very common and popular approach.

My stating that investing in indexes has been proven to be a better way to invest for retail investors isn't simply a stylistic preference. It's similar to saying that driving without seat belt (stock picking) increases the chances of harm than with seat belt (index investing).

For me, I've got a relatively small amount of my investing capital (about 10%) in stock investments mainly for the fun of it and to potentially benefit from that minuscule possibility that I might hit pay dirt.

So I always insist at every opportunity that people shouldn't hang too much hope that they will enjoy fantastic success in stock investments in the long run. Do it as a diversification/fun play with money that won't affect the quality of your life if lost. 2 of the most successful investors ever - Warren Buffett and George Soros - only made 20% per annum returns over 40 years. The chances that anyone here will come close to that is very slim. Not one person on here who has a contrary view to me on this has a long-term track record of success in picking stocks. You can't say something works when none of you have done it for long! It's all people who started dabbling in the markets in the last few months or years and believe I am preaching against their destiny to become rich.

Basing decisions on actual evidence is what we as Nigerians should inculcate. This is the building block of progress and how knowledge and life improves.

BullBearMkt:

...Lam Research is also on my watchlist & may likely fall further and since you are buying for long term, I think that's a good buy. Price below 245 seems to be a better BUY ENTRY

Yes, I think the whole US-China tech war could weigh on it whilst Trump is in office so it might go all the way down to 245 as you say. I am looking at 225 (May/June lows) and even the March lows around 180 as support levels.

But with long term holdings, I'm happy to buy at or near the 200 daily simple moving average. It's got great fundamentals so I'm content to hold it at these levels.

RabbiDoracle:




We will revisit this (part in bold) after the rout.

I get it! I suspect you missed the rally in US equities from March.

I am probably known on this thread for being a party pooper, insisting ad nauseam on extra caution but I have also learnt over the years not to fight the Fed. In equity valuations, cost of capital matters and present Fed policies puts a floor on how low market corrections can go. This will eventually change but not yet.

Because we have rallied for months, I had reduced my net long positions before the current correction and presently have 60% of my portfolio in cash. But I am still open to buying quality companies for the long term, bought Lam Research on Friday at 298, and of course the occasional opportunistic small speculative trade that catches my fancy.

RabbiDoracle:


You said you added Gamestop on the 8th of September.

Hope you have taken your loss?

Gamestop is going to $2. And you are entering it at 7 to 8.

All these trading faux gurus trying to mock people. Gamestop was a tiny speculative position which I got out of in the same day for a profit. Bought 7.68 and sold for 8.18.

Did the trade more out of boredom and technical analysis than conviction in its fundamentals.

My broker, Finecco, doesn't seem to allow screenshots so I took a picture. Sorry Ovasabi and the anti-screenshot people.

loneprof:


You're even more clueless than the person you quoted... You better get close to lawyers and understand how law works. If you commit a crime abroad or eloped during an investigation, with confirmation from a foreign police, you will most certainly be arrested and detained pending investigation.

You keep making unfounded statements which only appeal to uneducated naifs like you. What crime did she commit, what court adjudged her to have committed a crime?

There is zero evidence she is being detained at the request of UK police. In a few months time after she has possibly been intimidated enough, nothing will be heard about the phantom crime she was supposed to have been detained for.

sexylassie2:


This thing is confusing, i could remember this stuff happened during corona virus flight ban, how did she escape

also Nigerian court can not persecute her because the offense happened in the Uk also the evidence are there

basically, this is just baseless

It's a bulls**t story.

There is no criminal case against her in the UK which would warrant Naija police intervention. If she's being detained in Nigeria, it's more likely a case of Naija police overstepping legal bounds on behalf of someone who is trying to teach a "weaker" person a lesson.

numberonecytyzen:

Source?

I am hypothesizing from what I know of the UK justice system. You have to have cast iron evidence to successfully take legal action against a lady accusing you of rape. The idea that she fled the relative safety of the UK to Nigeria to escape justice is preposterous.

You and I know that the Nigerian police on the other hand tends to follow the money acting on behalf of the more powerful party in any dispute. What crime exactly is she being remanded for? The said "false" allegation would have occurred in the UK, the UK police or courts do not have an arrest warrant out for her.

The more you think of it, the more absurd this whole news article seems.

Eloped to Nigeria indeed. It's more likely her UK visa ran out and the dysfunctional Nigerian police is detaining her because she has no money/influence by comparison to the doctor.

DEXTROVERT:
Buhari
Has
Done
It
Again

Baba
Breaking
Records

Hospital on strike
University on strike
Increased tariff
Fuel hike
Infact it takes courage
To
Survive
Past 5yrs

This is the collective "achievement" of all the leaders not just Buhari. I would even go so far as to say it's a societal problem. We are a country that protests over fuel subsidy when more is spent on fuel subsidy than healthcare.

Tobex4realTobex234:
Bloodbath
March rerun they come.

I don't think so. I even added a small speculative position today, Gamestop (GME), as there has been a large uptick in volume accompanied by buying. I think the likes of Apple and Workhorse are also tempting.

afroxyz:


Have you also considered the fact that the amount of money available for you to trade with determines one's investment decisions? Someone who invested $1m can afford tp play the patience game, not someone using $1000 to chase profit of $500. There is never one way to make wealth in the market. Live and let live

That seems like an easy way to lose much of one's $1k.

It's true, Warren Buffett is partly in the business of capital preservation (he's trying to preserve the wealth he's accumulated) while a lot of young investors here are trying to generate wealth. The problem is that the market doesn't care about an investor's goals - it's not going to give a person the return they want just because they want it.

Bonatheripper:
This one's just wants to paint Anambra bad by all means.

It's just too obvious

It speaks to the rank bigotry that is commonplace amongst these folks. You have to feel sorry for the sort of miserable existence people live to spend a huge portion of their waking lives scouring the internet looking for bad news in Anambra.

Just basic understanding of maths will tell you that given a population of about 6m with relatively high literacy and internet penetration levels, you will find enough bad news on just about a daily basis to file to the front page.

RabbiDoracle:
You guys on longs should exit all. Don't leave any position open. You will suffer an almost 90% capital loss if your account isn't wiped out.

I issued this warning on NSEMPA around 28th August 2020 and later followed up with date similar event occurred on 1929:

Dow : 16K
S & P : 1,800
NASDAQ: 5,800

Guys should close their long trades. It is going to get severely bad.

Most of you waiting to buy the dip will lose money. September and October will have a massive red candles. Now some investors (sophisticated and newbies) are thinking it us just a correction. This isn't 'just' a correction. This is the start of a crash!

Soon NASDAQ will start to lose 7% on a single and trigger the circuit breakers. That is when EU and Asia will start Oso Abiola.

After losing 7%, it will graduate into the 13% single day range of fall. Then 20%.

Leave with your loss. Losses will keep piling.

The algos will sell until everything freezes just like how it did it March 2020. Then investors will face other assets like gold, bitcoin, silver, Brent etc and sell them to free up liquidity. They will be a massive crushing sell orders. Any rise you see in equities is a huge trap (just like the Tesla, Apple rise of Friday).


Wait for:

Bitcoin at 3,200
Gold at 1,200
Brent will hit below 20 again.

S & P VIX should spike towards 96. This will be the highest ever recorded for any crisis.

Just to add my 2 cents. Goodluck guys.

As wary as I am about all the gungho investors that we have seen in the last few months, I don't agree with all these excessively pessimistic claims.

As I have argued before, the Federal Reserves' liquidity is driving markets and markets tend to be forward looking, looking at where the economy is headed.

So whilst some investors feel the need to book some of the massive profits made and others are spooked by the upcoming US elections, things are generally looking up. Investors should be wary of being entirely out of the market at this point.

Coolcash1:

Nice one. People should imbibe the culture of sound risk and money management. Also position sizing should be practiced.

The ability to invest in a way that protects you against emotionally wrecking drawdowns is a crucial investing skill. Don't deploy a huge portion of your capital chasing fancy hot stocks - you might make money sometimes and feel like a genius but it's like playing Russian roulette, when you lose, you lose big.

Greed is what gets in the way but we have to learn to be long-term greedy as Goldman Sachs would put it. Unfortunately, no one is likely to become astoundingly rich on a sustainable basis from stockmarket investing within a short space of time. Aim to be rich/wealthy over the long run and curb all those get rich quick fantasies.

Such a waste of money. Elite politicians are obsessed with airports as this their favourite means of travel. But most Nigerian airports are not viable apart from a handful like Lagos, Abuja, Port Harcourt and perhaps Enugu https://guardian.ng/news/nigerian-airports-record-n44-billion-loss-in-3-years/

That money should have been invested in roads, healthcare and schools.

babytoun:

since the 2008/09 crash i have not gone near stocks ..
imagine someone that spent much of his savings on stocks like JAPAUL, Transacorp, Oceanic Bank, Intercontinental Bank, CI leasing (i still remember i bought this one for 17 naira in 2008 the whole estacode wey my office give me for a 3 weeks work outside 9ja) . i remember when someone said IGI was doing private placement and if we bought , we would gain at least 100% when they get listed publicly...... na so i carry money put ...up till today i no know wetin happen to the IGI.....

when snake bite person e go fear even millipede...... however our people say when woman pikin drown for river ...after crying na water she go still use wash her face ...that is why i am trying to give it a try again ...from a better informed position with money i can afford to lose

so now i am learning how to still do well even when the markets are down ...my purchases were purely based on rumours and pressure from stockbrokers..... i plan to take full responsibility this time with some help from pros here

I made some catastrophic mistakes in my early days. Started seriously trading in 2009, though I remember when I convinced my parents to buy Firstbank shares in 2007 which were selling at N22 I think! The big mistakes are trying to make money too quickly and not having a well-drilled "system" for taking a position.

Regarding being in a rush to make a killing, Buffett made a salient point that it's better to start down the slow and steady path as you can reap faster rewards in the long run (this is due to compound growth).

"Getting rich slow isn't actually slower," he said. "It's slower in year one, but it might be faster in year seven."

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-airbnb-brian-chesky-get-rich-slow-ipo-filing-2020-8-1029520058

I have been recommending to the "youngsters" here that beginners should have a preference for indexes but they don't want to hear There is a saying that stocks take the stairs when going up and the elevator when going down. Imagine watching your portfolio quadruple in a year and then see it halve in a few weeks of mad selling.

I have boiled down my rules to looking for good fundamentals: strong revenue and EPS growth, free cash flow, operating income, lowish price to earnings ratio (not significantly more than 30), etc. This website is quite good for checking these things: https://stockanalysis.com/

And then for technical analysis, I look for things like break outs from a trading range, the overall trend, and distance to the 200 daily simple moving average (SMA). If a stock is more than 20% above its 200 SMA, I am very reluctant to buy.

I deviate from the above rules for pure momentum trades like with Tesla, Workhorse or Plug. With this type, my position is 1/4 the normal size.

By the above rules, a lot of the popular stocks are currently overvalued so I have been reducing positions but still hold the following: Skyworks (SWKS), Rent-a-Centre (RCII), Biograd (BIO), Kirkland Gold (KL), Lam Research (LRCX), Revolve Group (RVLV) and a few others.

So as you can all see, despite my incessant admonitions to all and sundry that playing indexes is better in the long run than individual stocks, I can't resist the temptation to buy stocks

But in all seriousness, you should put most of your capital into indexes and start to move them gradually to stocks if you find you are consistently doing well in stocks in both bull and bear markets. This should be after at least 5 years!

Corruption is a significant part of the problem but not as much as the suite of inept policies that the country pursues.

Sometimes those policies exist because they facilitate corruption like multiple currency exchange rates that allow insiders to round trip, fuel subsidies that allow govt officials and fuel importers to corner subsidy payments, state run refineries and ports that aid theft through NNPC etc.

But a lot of other policies are ostensibly "well meaning" but actually counterproductive like increases in public sector wages at rates that outstrip the economic growth rate resulting in tax revenues that barely cover salaries, regulation of electricity and fuel prices which disincentives investment as companies need flexibility in pricing, incessant import bans which reduce consumer demand, proliferation of loss-making airports which put further strain on government finances, etc.

The country's economy is puny given the population and unless there is a radical overhaul of policies, in addition to tackling corruption, living standards will keep getting worse whilst we focus on lobbing scurrilous, often ethnicity/religion motivated, accusations at political leaders instead of addressing the policy deficiencies that exist.

This is why I am wary of the vague talk of restructuring as it often reflects a desire to retire to our ethno/regional sanctuaries where we think dynamism will magically reappear. People's lives won't be better unless Nigeria as a whole witnesses a sea change in the quality of governance.

ptoall1000:
So if one has dollars now is it advisable to sell it?

Hold on to your dollar as the only sustainable way for naira to appreciate is for more forex inflows from increases in oil revenues, remittances, foreign investment, sizeable IMF emergency loans, etc.

As a substantial increase in forex inflows is not forthcoming, the CBN's diktats won't change anything in the long run.