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Foreign AffairsRe: African Countries Should Be Recolonised Because Their Leaders Are Corrupt – Erik by 4Play(m): 2:13pm On Feb 11, 2024
Our leaders are incompetent and corrupt and in large part are a reflection of the kind of people we are.

But what we are going through is part of the learning process. After many missteps, we learn the hard way what mistakes to avoid.
PoliticsRe: Why Blame Tinubu For Inflation When Obi Vowed To End Subsidy “On Day One”? by 4Play(m): 10:52am On Feb 11, 2024
The OP's question only makes sense if you believe that all that is driving inflation is subsidy.

In reality, inflation is also driven by the scale of the increase in government spending (FG budget went from N21 trillion in 2023, from N4.5 trillion in 2015, to N28 trillion budgeted for 2024). The increase in naira supply drives demand for dollars.

Monetary policy is also too loose, CBN interest rates should not be below the rate of inflation. But when you have a CBN governor appointed partly because he was part of Tinubu's inner circle, it erodes the independence of the central bank which is necessary to restore central bank credibility. Loose monetary policy loosens the appeal of holding naira as inflation erodes the value and you can't get interest rates that offsets
inflation.

Psychology also drives forex markets and electing an APC stalwart who has been making noise in the past about spending to drive growth (including suggesting printing naira) and who has a chequered personal history (to put it mildly) does a lot to cement the perception that Nigeria is not turning a new leaf and will sustain with its reputation as a corruption-riddled kakistocracy.

All 3 candidates would have reduced subsidy as there was no choice given the fiscal hole the country has dug itself into. Even Buhari, if he was elected to a 3rd term, would have done same. But by failing to tackle all the other issues I have referred to as we are witnessing today, it's made the situation a lot worse.
PoliticsRe: Respite For Businesses As ‘sit-at-home’ In S/east Fades by 4Play(m): 9:59am On Feb 11, 2024
IPOB's appeal lay in the perception that they were a means of counteracting the perceived threat of Fulanis. With Buhari no longer in power, their appeal has diminished. The sort of people who filled the ranks of IPOB (poorly educated young men) were indoctrinated to resent the Muslim north.
PoliticsRe: Citizens Groan As Rice Hits N77,000 Per Bag by 4Play(m): 9:30am On Feb 11, 2024
The official inflation figure from the National Bureau Statistics is a lie. My guess is that inflation has gone far higher than captured in the data as naira depreciation gathered pace amplified by the reduction of fuel subsidy.
PoliticsRe: Hunger Protests: Why Tinubu Can’t Govern Like Buhari By Farooq A. Kperogi by 4Play(m): 3:11pm On Feb 10, 2024
Everydaylove:
Both Buhari and Tinubu have wrecked this country. He had his personal ambition since but not for the betterment of the people. I only blamed the braindead mumu supporters Tinubu used to achieve his selfish goal.
This is one of the things that annoys me with the Tinubu fan club who place blame on Buhari for today's situation. Without Tinubu's staunch support for the 8 years of Buhari's regime and before, Buhari would not have wreaked the havoc he did. To now suggest that he should be given more time to clean up Buhari's mess beggars belief. He traded his countrymen's well being, literally their lives, for his own personal ambition to be president. One cannot separate today's circumstances from the people who facilitated it.
PoliticsRe: Hunger Protests: Why Tinubu Can’t Govern Like Buhari By Farooq A. Kperogi by 4Play(m): 3:04pm On Feb 10, 2024
ivolt:
You guys continuously underestimate the value of financial prudence in economic management.

If you are right, Lamido Sanusi should have been the best CBN governor since
oil price was highest during his tenure.
But in real fact, the best CBN governors were the one in charge during the
lowest average oil price of 1999 to 2007. That is Joseph Oladele and Charles Soludo.
Joseph even managed to hit a 10% growth rate which is unmatched since then.

Nigeria's FDI at 1999 was about $1 billion and it increased to $6 billion in 2007.
If a 600% rise is not significant enough, you should remember that somebody actually took it from
4 billion dollars in 2015 to negative value by the end of 2022. Now, that's a record.


Before you ask, my criteria for best is based on external reserve accumulation, exchange rate control and economic growth rate.
Being CBN governor at a time of rapidly increasing oil prices, which comes with increasing forex inflow, is different from being governor at a time of oil prices being stagnant or falling and your predecessor ran forex reserves low and printed naira to support government spending. It's an entirely different set of circumstances.

Oil prices were lower during OBJ's era than now but that is irrelevant. What matters is that they were much higher, and rapidly increasing, compared to the preceding 2 decades. That's part of why things felt better for Nigerians.
PoliticsRe: To Those Guys Who Said Buhari Will Be Better Than Tinubu by 4Play(m): 11:53am On Feb 10, 2024
The economic situation today is a byproduct of decades of misgovernance. That being said, Buhari made things worse in a way that meant whoever was his successor was going to oversee severe economic challenges.

I think where Tinubu, and his economic team, have gone wrong is that he was part of a school of thought that still believes that the a key policy response to Nigeria's economic doldrums is a variety of monetary and fiscal stimuluses.

Government spending has been escalating rapidly since 2015. But an increase in naira supply circulating in the economy, leads to an increase in dollar demand. The start of Buhari's government in 2015 led to a massive increase in fiscal spending. Whilst GEJ's last budget was circa N4.5 trillion, Buhari's 2016 budget was N6 trillion. By 2018, the FG budgeted a spend of N9 trillion, 2023 was N21 trillion, Tinubu's 2024 budget was for N28 trillion. My figures may not be exact but they reflect the general trend.

To accommodate all this spending, the CBN has had to run loose monetary policy keeping interest rates low to enable the government keep borrowing. Where the bond markets have proved insufficient, the CBN has stepped in to lend to support government spending (effectively printing naira). Recall that Tinubu has been a keen advocate of more government spending to support growth: https://punchng.com/coronavirus-print-more-naira-notes-tinubu-tells-fg/.

Some people have defended all this spending by saying the absolute level of government spending as a percentage of the economy is low compared to other countries. Whilst that is true, it is the "delta", the change in the rate of spending, that is the problem. If, for instance, you increase government spending almost 700% in about 8 years, at a time your main sources of revenue and forex inflow which is oil, is falling in value, you are injecting more naira into the economy to chase even scarcer dollars.

Contrast this with the policy response in 2015, credit to Iweala, when the 2015 budget was N4.5 trillion, as opposed to the N5 trillion 2014 budget. This was in recognition that the government's key revenue source, oil, was falling in value. That being said, GEJ, at least pre-Iweala coming in in August 2011, oversaw a massive increase in spending which enabled him win the 2011 elections. You see, in Nigeria, the key to political popularity is spending.

By the way, this is what makes Peter Obi's popularity ironic especially as he was running as a candidate of the Labour party. Most who support him would have hated his policies but assuming he maintained his tendency as Anambra governor to exercise fiscal restraint if he was president, it would have helped significantly ameliorate the havoc the expansion of naira supply is causing.

With a tightening of fiscal and monetary policy, Nigeria should seek a significant forex injection in the form of an IMF (or whoever else can provide large dollar-denominated lending) loan. This will provide the CBN ammunition to stabilise the exchange rate which is in a freefall. These solutions will also curtail inflation. By the way, it is absolutely paramount that if you are taking a large forex loan, that you restrain your naira spending otherwise you end up with a large forex debt that would, in future, simply add to dollar demand.
PoliticsRe: APC Supporters What Exactly Is Your Problem. Not Seen A More STUPID Group by 4Play(m): 2:21pm On Feb 01, 2024
It actually makes "logical" sense to be anti-Igbo as the key to uniting people is to identify a common enemy. Think of IPOB and their nemesis: Fulani herdsmen. The idea that you need to suspend the use of your faculties and be very fearful of some nemesis out to get you is at the heart of most political propaganda campaigns.

I suspect that the more dire the economic and security situation gets, the more you will see divide and rule tactics used resulting in more ethnicism.

If things weren't dire and APC had lots of actual and tangible achievements to point to, then they could leverage these for support. Lacking evidence of positive impacts on the general public's lives, the only way to sustain support has to be through finding bogeymen via tribalism.
PoliticsRe: How Is It That Tinubu Cannot Halt Naira Downward Slide? by 4Play(m): 6:36pm On Jan 28, 2024
nairalanda1:
I really can't help you son.

You can call me APC supporter, but subsidy has to go, and things have to be sold at a profit.

If it makes you go gaga, so be it

Peace, TInubu worshipper. One day, APC and PDP would be kicked out...
Subsidy has not gone though.
BusinessRe: Huge Losses For Speculators As Dollars Crashed To #805 At Black Market by 4Play(m): 10:06am On Jan 28, 2024
The "good old days" of N800 to 1USD.
PoliticsRe: Why It Is Dangerous To Speculate On NGN/USD by 4Play(m): 10:05am On Jan 28, 2024
Birdbyrde440:
Who is "we"?

You think the average joe will source more money to keep buying $?
What if he bought with his last money?
Or sold his home based on your advice just to buy $ and you come and tell him to buy more, from where will he get the money?
With inflation as high as it is, the general trend for naira is downwards. You might have some temporary spikes in naira value whenever they complete one of these external loan deals but it's not going to be long lasting unless the policymakers tighten monetary policy (higher CBN interest rates) and tighten fiscal policy (a concerted effort by the FG to curb spending).

Nigerians are constantly deceived/manipulated with hope. Go back to July/August when the black market rate was N850 to $1, people were being told that any minute now, the naira will rally and those holding dollars will be severely punished. Check out this thread in August for instance: https://www.nairaland.com/7805012/huge-losses-speculators-dollars-crashed.

PS: Another hopium thread in November 2023: https://www.nairaland.com/7899830/nigeria-happening-those-hoarding-dollars.

Much of Nigerian politics is about maintaining support by feeding your supporters a steady diet of hope. I have seen this cycle repeat itself for decades.
BusinessRe: Banks Lead Nigerian Stocks to World’s Second-Best Gains in 2024 by 4Play(m): 8:17pm On Jan 12, 2024
Same as before. With naira depreciation and high inflation, where should local investors put their money?

I posted this before. I don't know if you are aware that Nigerian equity markets were one of the world's best performing in 2020 and 2022, as well as posting a decent performance in 2021.

https://www.thecable.ng/nse-ranked-2020-best-performing-stock-market

https://tribuneonlineng.com/nigerian-equities-market-gains-n5-7trn-to-rank-4th-globally/

https://businessday.ng/markets/article/nigerias-stock-market-ends-year-2021-with-positive-return-of-6-7/
PoliticsRe: Tinubu Can’t Fix In 6 Months What Buhari Failed At In 8 Years – Shehu Sani by 4Play(m): 1:20pm On Dec 30, 2023
There is no clear cut government plan to tackle the security situation which is dire. They would need a massive recruitment and equipment investment plan to boost the capacity of the military and police. This will cost a lot of money and they need to work out how to fund this. So far, no sign of urgency from this government or from the last 2 presidents.
PoliticsRe: Dangote Refinery Receives Third Shipment by 4Play(m): 7:49pm On Dec 28, 2023
coleon:
There are still a lot of mystery around this crude supply to Dangote by shell. The global pricing for crude oil is denominated in USD hence why it's refered to as petrodollar. Now if the forward contract between Dangote and Shell is denominated in USD it then means Dangote will have to pay Shell in USD for the supply.
The only way Dangote will pay Shell in USD is if he sells to local petrol supplier also in USD which is why I am laughing at those thinking this arrangement will reduce pressure on FX.
My expectation is that Dangote will get her supply directly from NNPC and they can work out a way of making payments in NGN.
I suppose this is the reason the clueless NNPC MD already sent a disclaimer that nothing will change in the pricing of petrol.
I will be waiting till next year to watch and see how events unfold.
I don't know much about the crude oil supply arrangements to the refinery but I doubt the refinery will make much difference to Nigeria's currency depreciation issues which I think is driven by high inflation and lack of general confidence in the economy.

Supposing supply is via NNPC to the refinery, wouldn't that mean forgone oil export dollars? In other words, oil that could have been exported for forex dollars is simply diverted to a refinery in Lagos leading to less forex inflow into Nigeria.

The thinking is that lower import of refined crude will curb forex outflow/dollar demand. That is true. However, I suspect that much of the refinery's revenue will find its way out of the country as Dangote, just as is the case with the cement business and indeed many Nigerians/businesses, prefer to maintain financial assets offshore in more stable currencies like the dollar or Euro.

The net effect on naira depreciation will be close to zero. What's driving the optimism is Nigerians desperate tendency to seek for magic/easy solutions to complex problems. Next year, they will be looking for other sources of optimism after the hullabaloo about the refinery comes to nothing.
PoliticsRe: 13 States Plan Fresh N2.3tn Borrowing by 4Play(m): 1:02pm On Dec 26, 2023
yoruboid:
I laugh at those hailing Abia for its insane and ambitious borrowing

The same Abia spending N30bn on a 6km road

Capital projects are the biggest scams by Governments and that’s how they loot funds
It seems apparent to me that this Abia governor is committing the typical Naija/African policy failure of reckless borrowing rationalised by references to infrastructural demands.

The excuse often used for reckless borrowing - that there is a massive infrastructural deficit - is akin to overdosing on iron tablets because you realise you have iron-deficiency anaemia.

Much of this borrowing makes it impossible to maintain or invest in infrastructure in the long-run (after the present governor's tenure has expired) due to the unsustainability of the debt load which imposes unavoidable fiscal costs/constraints on future governments. Infrastructure investment has to be sustainable - implemented over a long cycle - without causing fiscal crisis which could distort monetary/fiscal policy. See how the CBN ended up financing government borrowing which added to the inflation and Naira debacle

Think of Nigeria in the 1970s, all the infrastructure investments - sea and airports, electrical projects, road networks etc - was still followed by economic contraction in the 1980s that was worse than that experienced by many war-ravaged countries and which only ended when China's entry into the WTO in 2000 helped fuel a commodities (including oil) boom afterwards starting in OBJ's era.

It is the one way in which the rather much overhyped Peter Obi stood out from others. That he did not succumb to the typical Naija mentality of erecting financially unsustainable infrastructure projects which could be used for bragging rights.
PoliticsRe: Is Dozy Mmobuosi A Fraud? by 4Play(op): 7:49am On Dec 22, 2023
Update on this story:

A Nigerian businessman who appeared to be closing in on a takeover of the Premier League football club Sheffield United is being sued by the US financial watchdog for a fraud, in which he is alleged to have faked documents and made up companies out of “thin air”.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) said on Monday it had filed charges against Dozy Mmobuosi, claiming he inflated his companies’ financial performance by hundreds of millions of dollars to defraud investors.

The regulator filed its claim against Mmobuosi personally, and his company Tingo Group, which is listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange, and two related companies, Tingo International Holdings and Agri-Fintech Holdings.

The regulator alleges Mmobuosi orchestrated a “staggering” fraud the roots of which date back years.

In a court filing, the SEC said the fraud related mostly to Tingo Mobile, a private Nigerian company Mmobuosi founded that purportedly sourced and supplied mobile handsets and related services to farmers in Nigeria.

It claimed Mmobuosi created fake bank statements and forged supporting documents to give the impression that Tingo Mobile was a “thriving” business worth more than $1bn, when in fact it had “no meaningful customers or operations and about $15 in its bank account”.

He allegedly engineered the sale of Tingo Mobile from Agri-Fintech to Nasdaq-listed Tingo Group in an all-share merger, meaning the fake revenues were incorporated into the new company.

He then repeated the trick with the sale of Tingo Foods, described as an “elaborate fiction”, to Tingo Group for $204m earlier this year.

“Mmobuosi and the entities he controls have fraudulently obtained hundreds of millions in money or property through these schemes,” the SEC said in a statement.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/dec/19/businessman-tried-buy-sheffield-united-accused-elaborate-dozy-mmobuosi?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
PoliticsRe: Moody's Upgrades Economic Outlook On Nigeria To Positive - Reuters by 4Play(m): 10:56am On Dec 10, 2023
In late 2021, Moody's and S&P upgraded Nigeria's outlook to positive:
Global leading rating agency, Standard & Poor’s has affirmed Nigeria’s sovereign credit rating at B+ and revised its outlook from negative to stable.

This comes about a week after another rating firm, Moody’s Investor Services changed its outlook on Nigeria’s economy to Stable from Negative.

In a statement released today, U.S. based Standard & Poor’s, says its stable outlook on Nigeria, indicates that covid-19 related pressures will continue to weigh on the country’s GDP growth and fiscal and external metrics, but improved oil prices will support GDP growth.
https://www.arise.tv/s-and-p-global-revises-nigerias-sovereign-credit-rating-to-positive-from-negative/
PoliticsRe: Tinubu’s First 6 Months: FG, States Spend Hugely, Citizenry Not Feeling Impact by 4Play(m): 8:06am On Dec 02, 2023
Compare the amounts shared recently to the same figure in 2015 and you will see that spending in naira terms has doubled at least. The problem is partly that the purchasing value of naira has severely declined in the last 9 years as can be seen converting these sums to the dollar. Adjusted for inflation/depreciation, spending has gone down.

https://www.channelstv.com/2015/06/23/faac-fg-states-lgs-share-n409-3-billion/

https://dailypost.ng/2015/08/27/faac-fg-states-lgs-share-n511-8bn-for-july/
PoliticsRe: Nigeria Is Happening To Those Who Are Hoarding Dollars. by 4Play(m): 12:44pm On Nov 04, 2023
We have been through this journey multiple times starting from when $1 exchanged for 70 kobo. The multi-decade collapse in the naira's value does not happen in a straight line.

You have appreciation in naira which is hailed by the government and their supporters but these naira appreciations turn out to be brief as the long-term trend continues. Here are examples of articles written regarding naira appreciation in the last few years alone:

https://www.nairaland.com/7730375/naira-appreciate-settle-n600-1

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/12/naira-appreciates-over-dollar-by-n1-at-parallel-market/

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/08/naira-appreciates-n368-parallel-market/

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/12/naira-appreciated-30-3-dollar-10-months/amp/

https://www.legit.ng/business-economy/money/1512144-naira-ends-2022-a-positive-days-straight-losses-dollar/

Nigeria/Nigerians have a well-embedded expectation that inflation will continue to run high and a general distrust of the economy/political leaders/institutions. As long as this remains the case (I expect it will), then the naira will continue falling.

The fact that people are now celebrating naira exchanging for circa N900 to the $1 when it was exchanging for tells you a lot about how easily it is to sell hope to many, especially if the politician they're supporting is from their tribe. Nigerians love to clutch on to hope, that's why religion thrives in Nigeria. Particularly for the "Ronu" supporters confronted with myriad examples of living conditions getting worse under their tribesman, a little bit of something to hold on to and lavish praise on their "son" gets them giddy until reality sets in and they move on to the next source of hope.
PoliticsRe: Nigeria Is Not Broke, It’s Political Elites That Are “Broque” By Farooq Kperogi by 4Play(m): 9:30am On Oct 28, 2023
Nigeria is tragically broke. That the political class continues to lavish spending on themselves compounds the tragedy.

In some of the poorest countries, whether Somalia or Afghanistan, corruption is still rampant. See for instance: https://qz.com/somalia-is-the-most-corrupt-country-in-the-world-1850063626

Acknowledging that a country is broke is not a minor debating point but an important juncture to begin to tackle it. If you say Nigeria is not broke because politicians are buying SUVs for themselves, it makes it impossible to balance the budget and curtail inflation. More damage is done by failing to spend within the limits a country's finances allows.
Foreign AffairsRussia's Central Bank Raises Interest Rate By 7.5 Percentage Points by 4Play(op): 9:21am On Oct 28, 2023
This is how inflation often has to be tackled. Central bank policy rate has to be close to or above the inflation rate and they would need to be quick about raising rates to stop high inflation expectations from being embedded in the population's psyche. Here, Russia's central bank raised rates from 7.5% in July 2023 to 15% today to address inflation which has risen from 4% to 6%.

This is no magic bullet but a sharp rise in the policy rate is usually the bare minimum required to tackle inflation.

Russia's central bank has put up its key interest rate to 15% to try to curb inflation and bolster a weak rouble.1

The higher-than-expected rate hike of two percentage points raises borrowing costs for the fourth time in a row.

Globally the pace of price rises has been high, in part due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Inflation in Russia hit 6% in September.

There has also been increased government spending in Russia as it pours resources into its war machine.

The Bank of Russia, the country's central bank, has now raised rates by 7.5 percentage points since July as it seeks to get inflation back down to its 4% target.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-67233075.amp
PoliticsRe: Naira Crash: Tinubu Government Destroying Buhari's Legacy - Opinion by 4Play(m): 8:20pm On Oct 19, 2023
A huge IMF loan is necessary to inject forex into the economy. We also need big hikes in interest rates to cool down inflation and make the naira relatively more attractive to hold. The fact that the CBN has not responded with rate hikes worries me and suggests a degree of ineptitude or cowardice on their part.

They need to also start looking at assets (including the ports and NNPC/refineries) to sell to foreign investors as this can draw in forex. There is a whole range of policy reforms they can pursue to build confidence and almost 1/2 year is gone and they are still focusing on propaganda with a nearly comatose president who is too brain-dead to master policy details.

If you want to read about the textbook case on how to get out of this malaise, look at the reforms undertaken by South Korea from 1997 after its financial crisis.
Foreign AffairsSouth Africa Set To Briefly Overtake Nigeria As Africa's Biggest Economy by 4Play(op): 1:26pm On Oct 17, 2023
Can't see this lasting simply because Nigeria has lower GDP per capita, lower levels of economic development and faster population growth which should mean we are more likely to experience "catch up" growth.

South Africa is projected to briefly surpass Nigeria and Egypt as the largest economy on the continent next year, International Monetary Fund forecasts reveal.

The IMF's World Economic Outlook projects South Africa's gross domestic product to reach $401 billion in 2024, surpassing Nigeria's $395 billion and Egypt's $358 billion, all at current prices.

However, this shift is predicted to be temporary, as South Africa is expected to hold the top spot for just one year before trailing Nigeria once more. By 2026, South Africa is projected to fall to third place behind Egypt, as outlined in the report released last week.
https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/south-africa-to-overtake-nigeria-and-reclaim-its-position-as-africas-biggest-economy/0w4zjb9
HealthUk-Based Nigerian Nurses In Exam Fraud Scandal by 4Play(op): 5:44pm On Sep 23, 2023
Almost 50 overseas trained nurses and midwives in the UK who 'likely' qualified fraudulently are still being allowed to treat patients while under investigation, MailOnline can reveal.

The Nursing and Midwifery Council (NMC) today confirmed that 48 Nigerian professionals are suspected of paying someone to a sit computer-based exam that tests medical knowledge and is needed to work in Britain.

The NMC said it was 'more likely than not' that those it has identified obtained their result fraudulently.

However, the regulator told MailOnline that they will still be allowed to treat patients while investigations are underway — though not all are necessarily working in healthcare.

Thinktanks today slammed the decision, saying the regulator had a 'duty to protect patients' and their decision could see 'incompetent individuals threaten the health of adults and new-borns'.

The 48 people identified sat the exam, which covers drug dosage calculations and clinical questions for health issues like diabetes, at the Yunnik Technologies Test Centre in Ibadan, south west Nigeria.

An investigation by the NMC found 'evidence of widespread fraudulent activity' at the centre, meaning all the test results it has issued have now been deemed invalid.

While doubts were initially cast over 515 nurses and midwives who were tested at centre, the NMC narrowed the list of 'likely' fraudulent applicants down to 48.

These nurses and midwives will have their case assessed by an independently appointed panel to decide if they gained fraudulent entry to the NMC register.

If the panel determines they did, they would be removed from register losing the right to work as nurse or midwife in the UK.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12545343/nurses-midwives-Nigeria-working-UK-exam-results-fraudulen.html

See also story covered in Punch: https://punchng.com/exam-results-uk-nursing-council-raises-concern-over-widespread-fraud-in-ibadan-centre/
BusinessRe: Nigeria Downgraded From FTSE Russell Equity Index by 4Play(op): 8:53am On Sep 18, 2023
HopeSpencer:
.


They downgraded Nigeria in their useless ratings because investors won't be able to move their dollars out of Nigeria easily. We call it capital flights.

Oyinbo no happy that government won't let them enjoy their spoil in peace.


.
So to you, this is good news?

You can't easily attract capital if capital repatriation is hindered.

Nigeria won't grow without large scale capital importation.
BusinessRe: Nigeria Downgraded From FTSE Russell Equity Index by 4Play(op): 8:52am On Sep 18, 2023
There has been a lot of hullabaloo about reforms undertaken by this government. A few weeks ago, for instance, I was arguing the government was wrong to immediately remove fuel subsidy.

In hindsight, I have come to realise what seems to have been done is to effectively reduce subsidy, not eliminate it. That's not bad in itself (I prefer this) but the deceptiveness of government policy pronouncements fuels mistrust.

The same thing is happening with the FX market where I have always thought immediate liberalization is necessary to eliminate the gap between the official and black markets and enable the market determine the exchange rate. In reality, what they have done is depreciate the official rate but the chasm between it and the black market rate remains and is increasing.

In reality, not much has changed but a little bit of honesty and transparency would be useful to help buoy international investors' confidence. Nigerians already have a reputation for being deceitful, it's unhelpful if the Nigerian government conforms to that stereotype.
BusinessNigeria Downgraded From FTSE Russell Equity Index by 4Play(op): 8:36am On Sep 18, 2023
Nigeria has been demoted from a frontier market to an unclassified market one year after an annual equity country classification review by FTSE Russell, a subsidiary of London Stock Exchange Group, placed Africa’s largest economy on its watch list of countries monitored for possible reclassification.

The downgrade takes effect from 18 September when Nigerian index constituents will be deleted at zero value from FTSE Frontier Index Series, including the FTSE Frontier 50 Index, FTSE IdealRatings Islamic Index Series, FTSE/JSE All Africa Index Series, FTSE Middle East & Africa Extended Index Series and FTSE/MV Exchange Index.

FTSE Russell equity indices are used by investors across the world as equity benchmarks, allowing them to track the performance of specific market segments.

The decision followed a ratification by the FTSE Russell Index Governance Board and was arrived at after no improvement was recorded in the ability of international institutional investors to repatriate capital at a foreign exchange rate that would be used in FTSE Russell equity indices, a statement said.

“FTSE Russell has received feedback from market participants that although Nigeria has adopted a floating foreign exchange (FX) rate for the Nigerian Naira in the Investors’ & Exporters’ (I&E) FX Window, which is now operating on a “Willing Buyer, Willing Seller” basis, the lack of liquidity in the I&E FX Window continues to adversely impact the ability of international institutional to replicate benchmark changes,” the document said.
https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/624940-nigeria-downgraded-on-ftse-russell-equity-indices.html

CrimeRe: Nigerian Superstition: Man Kills Mum In UK Over Witchcraft by 4Play(op): 6:33pm On Aug 31, 2023
NaBanga:
Most paranoid schizophrenic beliefs are culture based. In the far past, it was mostly religious. Now the prevailing one (in the US) is about politicians abusing kids. The one that seems to have always been around is that someone is watching them (walking by, passing by in a car, cameras, cell phones, internet, etc). If you are around anyone with these thoughts, it's best to distance yourself. Not all of them are harmful, but you don't know the schizophrenics who will kill.
You might be right. The schizophrenia is there but how it manifests itself in a person could depend on the person's cultural background. There are examples of white European schizophrenic killers, and they often cite something culture-specific (like the government or aliens are spying on them).

That being said, there are a lot of elderly women in Nigeria (this is quite common in Anambra which I am familiar with) who experience a lot of degrading abuse/isolation because people have concluded they are witches.
CrimeRe: Nigerian Superstition: Man Kills Mum In UK Over Witchcraft by 4Play(op): 6:24pm On Aug 31, 2023
itsme01:
cool

You carried your 14th century witch hunting to UK... The Country where Witches and Wizards have Grand Lodge and equal rights as citizens

UK had abolished their Anti Witchcraft laws since 17th century

Well his lawyers claim he has schizophrenia and he is delusional and he would escape death sentence.
They don't have death sentence in the UK, most severe is life imprisonment without parole. The schizophrenia defence has been used before in a similar case from 2009:

A divorced father of three stabbed his mother 21 times after becoming convinced that she was a witch and had put a curse on him, a court heard today.

Kayode Kuye tortured and killed Christina Kuye, 69, because he believed she had ruined his life with a black magic spell, the Old Bailey was told.

Unemployed Kuye, 50, of Edmonton, north London, pleaded guilty to manslaughter on the grounds of diminished responsibility.

Judge Christopher Moss locked up the paranoid schizophrenic indefinitely under mental health laws and described it as a "brutal" killing.

Kuye attacked his mother after letting himself into her home in Finchley, north London, with a key in May last year, the court heard.

After a lengthy argument he knifed her 21 times to the upper body, also slashing her arms and hands as he tried to defend herself.

He was later arrested covered in blood at Finchley Central station, laughing as he said: "I have had an argument with my mother."

Officers forced their way into her home where they found her body in her bedroom.

Kuye later told psychiatrists that his purpose was "to torture his mother to try to prevent her from continuing what he perceived to be black magic upon him," said Alan Kent QC, prosecuting.

Mr Kent said: "The motivation behind his attack was his paranoid and deluded belief that his mother had cursed him through witchcraft and had ruined his life."

Mrs Kuye came to Britain from Nigeria in 1961 with her husband, who died on 1984. She had eight children, including the defendant, and 20 grandchildren.

She herself believed in witchcraft and her son became increasingly interested in the subject during the four years before he killed her.

His mother helped him get in touch with a witch doctor she knew in Nigeria and he would send him money "for advice and medicine", the court heard.

Two years before the killing he began to blame her for all his problems, saying she had "sacrificed him as a child and had put a curse on him".

He believed that "he was a king and should be rich but the curse prevented this from happening".

For about a year before his mother's death he had been saying he was going to kill her, as well as other family members.

On the day of the stabbing he had been "ranting and raving" at his ex-wife and told her that "he had to go and do what he had to do", the court heard.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/killer-son-stabbed-witch-mother-21-times-1829314.html
CrimeNigerian Superstition: Man Kills Mum In UK Over Witchcraft by 4Play(op): 6:12pm On Aug 31, 2023
We really need to get rid of these superstitious beliefs. Had this guy been in Nigeria, people would have accorded his accusations against his mum some credibility instead of the schizophrenia diagnosis he got in the UK:

A mentally ill man may be locked up for the rest of his life after today admitting killing his mother because he believed she was practising black magic against him.

Nicholas Aina, 28, had stopped taking medication for his paranoid schizophrenia because he thought it would help him lose weight.

But instead he fell into severe psychosis and embarked on a knife rampage through the home he shared with his family.

Aina handed himself in to police minutes after killing 64-year-old Caroline Adeyelu and injuring his 23-year-old sister Angel Adeyelu at their home in Dagenham, east London, last October 30.

He was delusional about witchcraft, electric voltage and being the 'king of Africa', the court was told.

Aina admitted the manslaughter of his mother by diminished responsibility and unlawfully wounding his sister.

Today he was handed a hospital order without limit of time by Judge David Aubrey KC at the Old Bailey.

The judge told him: 'You have a psychotic illness, namely paranoid schizophrenia, which is a severe and enduring illness
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12465751/Schizophrenic-killer-stabbed-mother-death-thought-using-black-magic-stopped-taking-medication-wanted-lose-weight.html
PoliticsItalian PM Giorgia Meloni Claimed Nigerians Practice Cannibalism by 4Play(op): 7:09am On Aug 21, 2023
The Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, in 2019 co-authored a racist book titled the Nigerian Mafia in which, among other things, she talked about cannibalism in Nigeria.

Cannibalism and the Nigerian mafia
D’Agostino cites several interventions that point the finger at African immigration and Nigerian immigration in particular, quoting a passage which speaks of the Yoruba ethnic group, one of the largest in the African country:

Yoruba, Nigeria: Cannibalism, closely linked to the trade in human flesh, is still practiced in some areas of Nigeria, including the area where the Yoruba tribe lives. The reasons are linked to the persistence of ancient superstitions, but also to beliefs in the medical field. There are open markets where you can buy fresh human meat products as well as some body parts.
https://news.italy24.press/books/791821.html

PoliticsRe: IMF: Nigeria’s Economic Growth To Slow by 4Play(op):
I think the end point of all this debate is the country needs a massive IMF bailout (injecting forex) to make the transition to higher prices and higher CBN interest rates smoother.

In 2015, I was worried the new Buhari government will impoverish us and plunge the government into a fiscal crisis. I think we have got to that point and instead of engaging in this wishful thinking that things will work out in the end, we need to recognize that we need foreign bailout ASAP.

In economics, how you get to a goal matters as much, if not more, than the goal you are pursuing. Introducing price shocks whilst cavalierly claiming that we will be fine in the long run can introduce some negative self-reinforcing dynamics as each business closure leads to more business closures and as naira depreciation potentially leads to panic. Correct me if I am wrong, but I think the naira has fallen at a faster rate in the parallel market since Tinubu took office than it did at the same point in Buhari's new tenure. If things go badly wrong here, it will take a very long while to ever convince Nigerians to adopt much needed pro-market reforms.

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