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Our leaders are incompetent and corrupt and in large part are a reflection of the kind of people we are. But what we are going through is part of the learning process. After many missteps, we learn the hard way what mistakes to avoid. |
The OP's question only makes sense if you believe that all that is driving inflation is subsidy. In reality, inflation is also driven by the scale of the increase in government spending (FG budget went from N21 trillion in 2023, from N4.5 trillion in 2015, to N28 trillion budgeted for 2024). The increase in naira supply drives demand for dollars. Monetary policy is also too loose, CBN interest rates should not be below the rate of inflation. But when you have a CBN governor appointed partly because he was part of Tinubu's inner circle, it erodes the independence of the central bank which is necessary to restore central bank credibility. Loose monetary policy loosens the appeal of holding naira as inflation erodes the value and you can't get interest rates that offsets inflation. Psychology also drives forex markets and electing an APC stalwart who has been making noise in the past about spending to drive growth (including suggesting printing naira) and who has a chequered personal history (to put it mildly) does a lot to cement the perception that Nigeria is not turning a new leaf and will sustain with its reputation as a corruption-riddled kakistocracy. All 3 candidates would have reduced subsidy as there was no choice given the fiscal hole the country has dug itself into. Even Buhari, if he was elected to a 3rd term, would have done same. But by failing to tackle all the other issues I have referred to as we are witnessing today, it's made the situation a lot worse. |
IPOB's appeal lay in the perception that they were a means of counteracting the perceived threat of Fulanis. With Buhari no longer in power, their appeal has diminished. The sort of people who filled the ranks of IPOB (poorly educated young men) were indoctrinated to resent the Muslim north. |
The official inflation figure from the National Bureau Statistics is a lie. My guess is that inflation has gone far higher than captured in the data as naira depreciation gathered pace amplified by the reduction of fuel subsidy. |
Everydaylove:This is one of the things that annoys me with the Tinubu fan club who place blame on Buhari for today's situation. Without Tinubu's staunch support for the 8 years of Buhari's regime and before, Buhari would not have wreaked the havoc he did. To now suggest that he should be given more time to clean up Buhari's mess beggars belief. He traded his countrymen's well being, literally their lives, for his own personal ambition to be president. One cannot separate today's circumstances from the people who facilitated it. |
ivolt:Being CBN governor at a time of rapidly increasing oil prices, which comes with increasing forex inflow, is different from being governor at a time of oil prices being stagnant or falling and your predecessor ran forex reserves low and printed naira to support government spending. It's an entirely different set of circumstances. Oil prices were lower during OBJ's era than now but that is irrelevant. What matters is that they were much higher, and rapidly increasing, compared to the preceding 2 decades. That's part of why things felt better for Nigerians. |
The economic situation today is a byproduct of decades of misgovernance. That being said, Buhari made things worse in a way that meant whoever was his successor was going to oversee severe economic challenges. I think where Tinubu, and his economic team, have gone wrong is that he was part of a school of thought that still believes that the a key policy response to Nigeria's economic doldrums is a variety of monetary and fiscal stimuluses. Government spending has been escalating rapidly since 2015. But an increase in naira supply circulating in the economy, leads to an increase in dollar demand. The start of Buhari's government in 2015 led to a massive increase in fiscal spending. Whilst GEJ's last budget was circa N4.5 trillion, Buhari's 2016 budget was N6 trillion. By 2018, the FG budgeted a spend of N9 trillion, 2023 was N21 trillion, Tinubu's 2024 budget was for N28 trillion. My figures may not be exact but they reflect the general trend. To accommodate all this spending, the CBN has had to run loose monetary policy keeping interest rates low to enable the government keep borrowing. Where the bond markets have proved insufficient, the CBN has stepped in to lend to support government spending (effectively printing naira). Recall that Tinubu has been a keen advocate of more government spending to support growth: https://punchng.com/coronavirus-print-more-naira-notes-tinubu-tells-fg/. Some people have defended all this spending by saying the absolute level of government spending as a percentage of the economy is low compared to other countries. Whilst that is true, it is the "delta", the change in the rate of spending, that is the problem. If, for instance, you increase government spending almost 700% in about 8 years, at a time your main sources of revenue and forex inflow which is oil, is falling in value, you are injecting more naira into the economy to chase even scarcer dollars. Contrast this with the policy response in 2015, credit to Iweala, when the 2015 budget was N4.5 trillion, as opposed to the N5 trillion 2014 budget. This was in recognition that the government's key revenue source, oil, was falling in value. That being said, GEJ, at least pre-Iweala coming in in August 2011, oversaw a massive increase in spending which enabled him win the 2011 elections. You see, in Nigeria, the key to political popularity is spending. By the way, this is what makes Peter Obi's popularity ironic especially as he was running as a candidate of the Labour party. Most who support him would have hated his policies but assuming he maintained his tendency as Anambra governor to exercise fiscal restraint if he was president, it would have helped significantly ameliorate the havoc the expansion of naira supply is causing. With a tightening of fiscal and monetary policy, Nigeria should seek a significant forex injection in the form of an IMF (or whoever else can provide large dollar-denominated lending) loan. This will provide the CBN ammunition to stabilise the exchange rate which is in a freefall. These solutions will also curtail inflation. By the way, it is absolutely paramount that if you are taking a large forex loan, that you restrain your naira spending otherwise you end up with a large forex debt that would, in future, simply add to dollar demand. |
It actually makes "logical" sense to be anti-Igbo as the key to uniting people is to identify a common enemy. Think of IPOB and their nemesis: Fulani herdsmen. The idea that you need to suspend the use of your faculties and be very fearful of some nemesis out to get you is at the heart of most political propaganda campaigns. I suspect that the more dire the economic and security situation gets, the more you will see divide and rule tactics used resulting in more ethnicism. If things weren't dire and APC had lots of actual and tangible achievements to point to, then they could leverage these for support. Lacking evidence of positive impacts on the general public's lives, the only way to sustain support has to be through finding bogeymen via tribalism. |
nairalanda1:Subsidy has not gone though. |
The "good old days" of N800 to 1USD. |
Birdbyrde440:With inflation as high as it is, the general trend for naira is downwards. You might have some temporary spikes in naira value whenever they complete one of these external loan deals but it's not going to be long lasting unless the policymakers tighten monetary policy (higher CBN interest rates) and tighten fiscal policy (a concerted effort by the FG to curb spending). Nigerians are constantly deceived/manipulated with hope. Go back to July/August when the black market rate was N850 to $1, people were being told that any minute now, the naira will rally and those holding dollars will be severely punished. Check out this thread in August for instance: https://www.nairaland.com/7805012/huge-losses-speculators-dollars-crashed. PS: Another hopium thread in November 2023: https://www.nairaland.com/7899830/nigeria-happening-those-hoarding-dollars. Much of Nigerian politics is about maintaining support by feeding your supporters a steady diet of hope. I have seen this cycle repeat itself for decades. |
Same as before. With naira depreciation and high inflation, where should local investors put their money? I posted this before. I don't know if you are aware that Nigerian equity markets were one of the world's best performing in 2020 and 2022, as well as posting a decent performance in 2021. https://www.thecable.ng/nse-ranked-2020-best-performing-stock-market https://tribuneonlineng.com/nigerian-equities-market-gains-n5-7trn-to-rank-4th-globally/ https://businessday.ng/markets/article/nigerias-stock-market-ends-year-2021-with-positive-return-of-6-7/ |
There is no clear cut government plan to tackle the security situation which is dire. They would need a massive recruitment and equipment investment plan to boost the capacity of the military and police. This will cost a lot of money and they need to work out how to fund this. So far, no sign of urgency from this government or from the last 2 presidents. |
coleon:I don't know much about the crude oil supply arrangements to the refinery but I doubt the refinery will make much difference to Nigeria's currency depreciation issues which I think is driven by high inflation and lack of general confidence in the economy. Supposing supply is via NNPC to the refinery, wouldn't that mean forgone oil export dollars? In other words, oil that could have been exported for forex dollars is simply diverted to a refinery in Lagos leading to less forex inflow into Nigeria. The thinking is that lower import of refined crude will curb forex outflow/dollar demand. That is true. However, I suspect that much of the refinery's revenue will find its way out of the country as Dangote, just as is the case with the cement business and indeed many Nigerians/businesses, prefer to maintain financial assets offshore in more stable currencies like the dollar or Euro. The net effect on naira depreciation will be close to zero. What's driving the optimism is Nigerians desperate tendency to seek for magic/easy solutions to complex problems. Next year, they will be looking for other sources of optimism after the hullabaloo about the refinery comes to nothing. |
yoruboid:It seems apparent to me that this Abia governor is committing the typical Naija/African policy failure of reckless borrowing rationalised by references to infrastructural demands. The excuse often used for reckless borrowing - that there is a massive infrastructural deficit - is akin to overdosing on iron tablets because you realise you have iron-deficiency anaemia. Much of this borrowing makes it impossible to maintain or invest in infrastructure in the long-run (after the present governor's tenure has expired) due to the unsustainability of the debt load which imposes unavoidable fiscal costs/constraints on future governments. Infrastructure investment has to be sustainable - implemented over a long cycle - without causing fiscal crisis which could distort monetary/fiscal policy. See how the CBN ended up financing government borrowing which added to the inflation and Naira debacle Think of Nigeria in the 1970s, all the infrastructure investments - sea and airports, electrical projects, road networks etc - was still followed by economic contraction in the 1980s that was worse than that experienced by many war-ravaged countries and which only ended when China's entry into the WTO in 2000 helped fuel a commodities (including oil) boom afterwards starting in OBJ's era. It is the one way in which the rather much overhyped Peter Obi stood out from others. That he did not succumb to the typical Naija mentality of erecting financially unsustainable infrastructure projects which could be used for bragging rights. |
Update on this story: A Nigerian businessman who appeared to be closing in on a takeover of the Premier League football club Sheffield United is being sued by the US financial watchdog for a fraud, in which he is alleged to have faked documents and made up companies out of “thin air”.https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/dec/19/businessman-tried-buy-sheffield-united-accused-elaborate-dozy-mmobuosi?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other |
In late 2021, Moody's and S&P upgraded Nigeria's outlook to positive: Global leading rating agency, Standard & Poor’s has affirmed Nigeria’s sovereign credit rating at B+ and revised its outlook from negative to stable.https://www.arise.tv/s-and-p-global-revises-nigerias-sovereign-credit-rating-to-positive-from-negative/ |
Compare the amounts shared recently to the same figure in 2015 and you will see that spending in naira terms has doubled at least. The problem is partly that the purchasing value of naira has severely declined in the last 9 years as can be seen converting these sums to the dollar. Adjusted for inflation/depreciation, spending has gone down. https://www.channelstv.com/2015/06/23/faac-fg-states-lgs-share-n409-3-billion/ https://dailypost.ng/2015/08/27/faac-fg-states-lgs-share-n511-8bn-for-july/ |
We have been through this journey multiple times starting from when $1 exchanged for 70 kobo. The multi-decade collapse in the naira's value does not happen in a straight line. You have appreciation in naira which is hailed by the government and their supporters but these naira appreciations turn out to be brief as the long-term trend continues. Here are examples of articles written regarding naira appreciation in the last few years alone: https://www.nairaland.com/7730375/naira-appreciate-settle-n600-1 https://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/12/naira-appreciates-over-dollar-by-n1-at-parallel-market/ https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/08/naira-appreciates-n368-parallel-market/ https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/12/naira-appreciated-30-3-dollar-10-months/amp/ https://www.legit.ng/business-economy/money/1512144-naira-ends-2022-a-positive-days-straight-losses-dollar/ Nigeria/Nigerians have a well-embedded expectation that inflation will continue to run high and a general distrust of the economy/political leaders/institutions. As long as this remains the case (I expect it will), then the naira will continue falling. The fact that people are now celebrating naira exchanging for circa N900 to the $1 when it was exchanging for tells you a lot about how easily it is to sell hope to many, especially if the politician they're supporting is from their tribe. Nigerians love to clutch on to hope, that's why religion thrives in Nigeria. Particularly for the "Ronu" supporters confronted with myriad examples of living conditions getting worse under their tribesman, a little bit of something to hold on to and lavish praise on their "son" gets them giddy until reality sets in and they move on to the next source of hope. |
Nigeria is tragically broke. That the political class continues to lavish spending on themselves compounds the tragedy. In some of the poorest countries, whether Somalia or Afghanistan, corruption is still rampant. See for instance: https://qz.com/somalia-is-the-most-corrupt-country-in-the-world-1850063626 Acknowledging that a country is broke is not a minor debating point but an important juncture to begin to tackle it. If you say Nigeria is not broke because politicians are buying SUVs for themselves, it makes it impossible to balance the budget and curtail inflation. More damage is done by failing to spend within the limits a country's finances allows. |
This is how inflation often has to be tackled. Central bank policy rate has to be close to or above the inflation rate and they would need to be quick about raising rates to stop high inflation expectations from being embedded in the population's psyche. Here, Russia's central bank raised rates from 7.5% in July 2023 to 15% today to address inflation which has risen from 4% to 6%. This is no magic bullet but a sharp rise in the policy rate is usually the bare minimum required to tackle inflation. Russia's central bank has put up its key interest rate to 15% to try to curb inflation and bolster a weak rouble.1https://www.bbc.com/news/business-67233075.amp |
A huge IMF loan is necessary to inject forex into the economy. We also need big hikes in interest rates to cool down inflation and make the naira relatively more attractive to hold. The fact that the CBN has not responded with rate hikes worries me and suggests a degree of ineptitude or cowardice on their part. They need to also start looking at assets (including the ports and NNPC/refineries) to sell to foreign investors as this can draw in forex. There is a whole range of policy reforms they can pursue to build confidence and almost 1/2 year is gone and they are still focusing on propaganda with a nearly comatose president who is too brain-dead to master policy details. If you want to read about the textbook case on how to get out of this malaise, look at the reforms undertaken by South Korea from 1997 after its financial crisis. |
Can't see this lasting simply because Nigeria has lower GDP per capita, lower levels of economic development and faster population growth which should mean we are more likely to experience "catch up" growth. South Africa is projected to briefly surpass Nigeria and Egypt as the largest economy on the continent next year, International Monetary Fund forecasts reveal.https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/south-africa-to-overtake-nigeria-and-reclaim-its-position-as-africas-biggest-economy/0w4zjb9 |
Almost 50 overseas trained nurses and midwives in the UK who 'likely' qualified fraudulently are still being allowed to treat patients while under investigation, MailOnline can reveal.https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12545343/nurses-midwives-Nigeria-working-UK-exam-results-fraudulen.html See also story covered in Punch: https://punchng.com/exam-results-uk-nursing-council-raises-concern-over-widespread-fraud-in-ibadan-centre/ |
HopeSpencer:So to you, this is good news? You can't easily attract capital if capital repatriation is hindered. Nigeria won't grow without large scale capital importation. |
There has been a lot of hullabaloo about reforms undertaken by this government. A few weeks ago, for instance, I was arguing the government was wrong to immediately remove fuel subsidy. In hindsight, I have come to realise what seems to have been done is to effectively reduce subsidy, not eliminate it. That's not bad in itself (I prefer this) but the deceptiveness of government policy pronouncements fuels mistrust. The same thing is happening with the FX market where I have always thought immediate liberalization is necessary to eliminate the gap between the official and black markets and enable the market determine the exchange rate. In reality, what they have done is depreciate the official rate but the chasm between it and the black market rate remains and is increasing. In reality, not much has changed but a little bit of honesty and transparency would be useful to help buoy international investors' confidence. Nigerians already have a reputation for being deceitful, it's unhelpful if the Nigerian government conforms to that stereotype. |
Nigeria has been demoted from a frontier market to an unclassified market one year after an annual equity country classification review by FTSE Russell, a subsidiary of London Stock Exchange Group, placed Africa’s largest economy on its watch list of countries monitored for possible reclassification.https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/624940-nigeria-downgraded-on-ftse-russell-equity-indices.html
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NaBanga:You might be right. The schizophrenia is there but how it manifests itself in a person could depend on the person's cultural background. There are examples of white European schizophrenic killers, and they often cite something culture-specific (like the government or aliens are spying on them). That being said, there are a lot of elderly women in Nigeria (this is quite common in Anambra which I am familiar with) who experience a lot of degrading abuse/isolation because people have concluded they are witches. |
itsme01:They don't have death sentence in the UK, most severe is life imprisonment without parole. The schizophrenia defence has been used before in a similar case from 2009: A divorced father of three stabbed his mother 21 times after becoming convinced that she was a witch and had put a curse on him, a court heard today.https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/killer-son-stabbed-witch-mother-21-times-1829314.html |
We really need to get rid of these superstitious beliefs. Had this guy been in Nigeria, people would have accorded his accusations against his mum some credibility instead of the schizophrenia diagnosis he got in the UK: A mentally ill man may be locked up for the rest of his life after today admitting killing his mother because he believed she was practising black magic against him.https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12465751/Schizophrenic-killer-stabbed-mother-death-thought-using-black-magic-stopped-taking-medication-wanted-lose-weight.html |
The Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, in 2019 co-authored a racist book titled the Nigerian Mafia in which, among other things, she talked about cannibalism in Nigeria. Cannibalism and the Nigerian mafiahttps://news.italy24.press/books/791821.html
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I think the end point of all this debate is the country needs a massive IMF bailout (injecting forex) to make the transition to higher prices and higher CBN interest rates smoother. In 2015, I was worried the new Buhari government will impoverish us and plunge the government into a fiscal crisis. I think we have got to that point and instead of engaging in this wishful thinking that things will work out in the end, we need to recognize that we need foreign bailout ASAP. In economics, how you get to a goal matters as much, if not more, than the goal you are pursuing. Introducing price shocks whilst cavalierly claiming that we will be fine in the long run can introduce some negative self-reinforcing dynamics as each business closure leads to more business closures and as naira depreciation potentially leads to panic. Correct me if I am wrong, but I think the naira has fallen at a faster rate in the parallel market since Tinubu took office than it did at the same point in Buhari's new tenure. If things go badly wrong here, it will take a very long while to ever convince Nigerians to adopt much needed pro-market reforms. |
