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Politics / Re: Naira Crash: Tinubu Government Destroying Buhari's Legacy - Opinion by 4Play(m): 8:20pm On Oct 19, 2023
A huge IMF loan is necessary to inject forex into the economy. We also need big hikes in interest rates to cool down inflation and make the naira relatively more attractive to hold. The fact that the CBN has not responded with rate hikes worries me and suggests a degree of ineptitude or cowardice on their part.

They need to also start looking at assets (including the ports and NNPC/refineries) to sell to foreign investors as this can draw in forex. There is a whole range of policy reforms they can pursue to build confidence and almost 1/2 year is gone and they are still focusing on propaganda with a nearly comatose president who is too brain-dead to master policy details.

If you want to read about the textbook case on how to get out of this malaise, look at the reforms undertaken by South Korea from 1997 after its financial crisis.

2 Likes

Foreign Affairs / South Africa Set To Briefly Overtake Nigeria As Africa's Biggest Economy by 4Play(m): 1:26pm On Oct 17, 2023
Can't see this lasting simply because Nigeria has lower GDP per capita, lower levels of economic development and faster population growth which should mean we are more likely to experience "catch up" growth.

South Africa is projected to briefly surpass Nigeria and Egypt as the largest economy on the continent next year, International Monetary Fund forecasts reveal.

The IMF's World Economic Outlook projects South Africa's gross domestic product to reach $401 billion in 2024, surpassing Nigeria's $395 billion and Egypt's $358 billion, all at current prices.

However, this shift is predicted to be temporary, as South Africa is expected to hold the top spot for just one year before trailing Nigeria once more. By 2026, South Africa is projected to fall to third place behind Egypt, as outlined in the report released last week.

https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/south-africa-to-overtake-nigeria-and-reclaim-its-position-as-africas-biggest-economy/0w4zjb9

2 Likes

Health / Uk-Based Nigerian Nurses In Exam Fraud Scandal by 4Play(m): 5:44pm On Sep 23, 2023
Almost 50 overseas trained nurses and midwives in the UK who 'likely' qualified fraudulently are still being allowed to treat patients while under investigation, MailOnline can reveal.

The Nursing and Midwifery Council (NMC) today confirmed that 48 Nigerian professionals are suspected of paying someone to a sit computer-based exam that tests medical knowledge and is needed to work in Britain.

The NMC said it was 'more likely than not' that those it has identified obtained their result fraudulently.

However, the regulator told MailOnline that they will still be allowed to treat patients while investigations are underway — though not all are necessarily working in healthcare.

Thinktanks today slammed the decision, saying the regulator had a 'duty to protect patients' and their decision could see 'incompetent individuals threaten the health of adults and new-borns'.

The 48 people identified sat the exam, which covers drug dosage calculations and clinical questions for health issues like diabetes, at the Yunnik Technologies Test Centre in Ibadan, south west Nigeria.

An investigation by the NMC found 'evidence of widespread fraudulent activity' at the centre, meaning all the test results it has issued have now been deemed invalid.

While doubts were initially cast over 515 nurses and midwives who were tested at centre, the NMC narrowed the list of 'likely' fraudulent applicants down to 48.

These nurses and midwives will have their case assessed by an independently appointed panel to decide if they gained fraudulent entry to the NMC register.

If the panel determines they did, they would be removed from register losing the right to work as nurse or midwife in the UK.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12545343/nurses-midwives-Nigeria-working-UK-exam-results-fraudulen.html

See also story covered in Punch: https://punchng.com/exam-results-uk-nursing-council-raises-concern-over-widespread-fraud-in-ibadan-centre/

1 Like

Business / Re: Nigeria Downgraded From FTSE Russell Equity Index by 4Play(m): 8:53am On Sep 18, 2023
HopeSpencer:
.


They downgraded Nigeria in their useless ratings because investors won't be able to move their dollars out of Nigeria easily. We call it capital flights.

Oyinbo no happy that government won't let them enjoy their spoil in peace.


.


So to you, this is good news?

You can't easily attract capital if capital repatriation is hindered.

Nigeria won't grow without large scale capital importation.

3 Likes 1 Share

Business / Re: Nigeria Downgraded From FTSE Russell Equity Index by 4Play(m): 8:52am On Sep 18, 2023
There has been a lot of hullabaloo about reforms undertaken by this government. A few weeks ago, for instance, I was arguing the government was wrong to immediately remove fuel subsidy.

In hindsight, I have come to realise what seems to have been done is to effectively reduce subsidy, not eliminate it. That's not bad in itself (I prefer this) but the deceptiveness of government policy pronouncements fuels mistrust.

The same thing is happening with the FX market where I have always thought immediate liberalization is necessary to eliminate the gap between the official and black markets and enable the market determine the exchange rate. In reality, what they have done is depreciate the official rate but the chasm between it and the black market rate remains and is increasing.

In reality, not much has changed but a little bit of honesty and transparency would be useful to help buoy international investors' confidence. Nigerians already have a reputation for being deceitful, it's unhelpful if the Nigerian government conforms to that stereotype.

2 Likes

Business / Nigeria Downgraded From FTSE Russell Equity Index by 4Play(m): 8:36am On Sep 18, 2023
Nigeria has been demoted from a frontier market to an unclassified market one year after an annual equity country classification review by FTSE Russell, a subsidiary of London Stock Exchange Group, placed Africa’s largest economy on its watch list of countries monitored for possible reclassification.

The downgrade takes effect from 18 September when Nigerian index constituents will be deleted at zero value from FTSE Frontier Index Series, including the FTSE Frontier 50 Index, FTSE IdealRatings Islamic Index Series, FTSE/JSE All Africa Index Series, FTSE Middle East & Africa Extended Index Series and FTSE/MV Exchange Index.

FTSE Russell equity indices are used by investors across the world as equity benchmarks, allowing them to track the performance of specific market segments.

The decision followed a ratification by the FTSE Russell Index Governance Board and was arrived at after no improvement was recorded in the ability of international institutional investors to repatriate capital at a foreign exchange rate that would be used in FTSE Russell equity indices, a statement said.

“FTSE Russell has received feedback from market participants that although Nigeria has adopted a floating foreign exchange (FX) rate for the Nigerian Naira in the Investors’ & Exporters’ (I&E) FX Window, which is now operating on a “Willing Buyer, Willing Seller” basis, the lack of liquidity in the I&E FX Window continues to adversely impact the ability of international institutional to replicate benchmark changes,” the document said.

https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/624940-nigeria-downgraded-on-ftse-russell-equity-indices.html

1 Like 1 Share

Crime / Re: Nigerian Superstition: Man Kills Mum In UK Over Witchcraft by 4Play(m): 6:33pm On Aug 31, 2023
NaBanga:
Most paranoid schizophrenic beliefs are culture based. In the far past, it was mostly religious. Now the prevailing one (in the US) is about politicians abusing kids. The one that seems to have always been around is that someone is watching them (walking by, passing by in a car, cameras, cell phones, internet, etc). If you are around anyone with these thoughts, it's best to distance yourself. Not all of them are harmful, but you don't know the schizophrenics who will kill.

You might be right. The schizophrenia is there but how it manifests itself in a person could depend on the person's cultural background. There are examples of white European schizophrenic killers, and they often cite something culture-specific (like the government or aliens are spying on them).

That being said, there are a lot of elderly women in Nigeria (this is quite common in Anambra which I am familiar with) who experience a lot of degrading abuse/isolation because people have concluded they are witches.

2 Likes

Crime / Re: Nigerian Superstition: Man Kills Mum In UK Over Witchcraft by 4Play(m): 6:24pm On Aug 31, 2023
itsme01:
cool

You carried your 14th century witch hunting to UK... The Country where Witches and Wizards have Grand Lodge and equal rights as citizens

UK had abolished their Anti Witchcraft laws since 17th century

Well his lawyers claim he has schizophrenia and he is delusional and he would escape death sentence.

They don't have death sentence in the UK, most severe is life imprisonment without parole. The schizophrenia defence has been used before in a similar case from 2009:

A divorced father of three stabbed his mother 21 times after becoming convinced that she was a witch and had put a curse on him, a court heard today.

Kayode Kuye tortured and killed Christina Kuye, 69, because he believed she had ruined his life with a black magic spell, the Old Bailey was told.

Unemployed Kuye, 50, of Edmonton, north London, pleaded guilty to manslaughter on the grounds of diminished responsibility.

Judge Christopher Moss locked up the paranoid schizophrenic indefinitely under mental health laws and described it as a "brutal" killing.

Kuye attacked his mother after letting himself into her home in Finchley, north London, with a key in May last year, the court heard.

After a lengthy argument he knifed her 21 times to the upper body, also slashing her arms and hands as he tried to defend herself.

He was later arrested covered in blood at Finchley Central station, laughing as he said: "I have had an argument with my mother."

Officers forced their way into her home where they found her body in her bedroom.

Kuye later told psychiatrists that his purpose was "to torture his mother to try to prevent her from continuing what he perceived to be black magic upon him," said Alan Kent QC, prosecuting.

Mr Kent said: "The motivation behind his attack was his paranoid and deluded belief that his mother had cursed him through witchcraft and had ruined his life."

Mrs Kuye came to Britain from Nigeria in 1961 with her husband, who died on 1984. She had eight children, including the defendant, and 20 grandchildren.

She herself believed in witchcraft and her son became increasingly interested in the subject during the four years before he killed her.

His mother helped him get in touch with a witch doctor she knew in Nigeria and he would send him money "for advice and medicine", the court heard.

Two years before the killing he began to blame her for all his problems, saying she had "sacrificed him as a child and had put a curse on him".

He believed that "he was a king and should be rich but the curse prevented this from happening".

For about a year before his mother's death he had been saying he was going to kill her, as well as other family members.

On the day of the stabbing he had been "ranting and raving" at his ex-wife and told her that "he had to go and do what he had to do", the court heard.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/killer-son-stabbed-witch-mother-21-times-1829314.html

1 Like

Crime / Nigerian Superstition: Man Kills Mum In UK Over Witchcraft by 4Play(m): 6:12pm On Aug 31, 2023
We really need to get rid of these superstitious beliefs. Had this guy been in Nigeria, people would have accorded his accusations against his mum some credibility instead of the schizophrenia diagnosis he got in the UK:

A mentally ill man may be locked up for the rest of his life after today admitting killing his mother because he believed she was practising black magic against him.

Nicholas Aina, 28, had stopped taking medication for his paranoid schizophrenia because he thought it would help him lose weight.

But instead he fell into severe psychosis and embarked on a knife rampage through the home he shared with his family.

Aina handed himself in to police minutes after killing 64-year-old Caroline Adeyelu and injuring his 23-year-old sister Angel Adeyelu at their home in Dagenham, east London, last October 30.

He was delusional about witchcraft, electric voltage and being the 'king of Africa', the court was told.

Aina admitted the manslaughter of his mother by diminished responsibility and unlawfully wounding his sister.

Today he was handed a hospital order without limit of time by Judge David Aubrey KC at the Old Bailey.

The judge told him: 'You have a psychotic illness, namely paranoid schizophrenia, which is a severe and enduring illness

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12465751/Schizophrenic-killer-stabbed-mother-death-thought-using-black-magic-stopped-taking-medication-wanted-lose-weight.html
Politics / Italian PM Giorgia Meloni Claimed Nigerians Practice Cannibalism by 4Play(m): 7:09am On Aug 21, 2023
The Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, in 2019 co-authored a racist book titled the Nigerian Mafia in which, among other things, she talked about cannibalism in Nigeria.

Cannibalism and the Nigerian mafia
D’Agostino cites several interventions that point the finger at African immigration and Nigerian immigration in particular, quoting a passage which speaks of the Yoruba ethnic group, one of the largest in the African country:

Yoruba, Nigeria: Cannibalism, closely linked to the trade in human flesh, is still practiced in some areas of Nigeria, including the area where the Yoruba tribe lives. The reasons are linked to the persistence of ancient superstitions, but also to beliefs in the medical field. There are open markets where you can buy fresh human meat products as well as some body parts.

https://news.italy24.press/books/791821.html

7 Likes 1 Share

Politics / Re: IMF: Nigeria’s Economic Growth To Slow by 4Play(m): 8:55am On Aug 15, 2023
I think the end point of all this debate is the country needs a massive IMF bailout (injecting forex) to make the transition to higher prices and higher CBN interest rates smoother.

In 2015, I was worried the new Buhari government will impoverish us and plunge the government into a fiscal crisis. I think we have got to that point and instead of engaging in this wishful thinking that things will work out in the end, we need to recognize that we need foreign bailout ASAP.

In economics, how you get to a goal matters as much, if not more, than the goal you are pursuing. Introducing price shocks whilst cavalierly claiming that we will be fine in the long run can introduce some negative self-reinforcing dynamics as each business closure leads to more business closures and as naira depreciation potentially leads to panic. Correct me if I am wrong, but I think the naira has fallen at a faster rate in the parallel market since Tinubu took office than it did at the same point in Buhari's new tenure. If things go badly wrong here, it will take a very long while to ever convince Nigerians to adopt much needed pro-market reforms.
Politics / Re: IMF: Nigeria’s Economic Growth To Slow by 4Play(m): 8:54am On Aug 15, 2023
nairalanda1:



I liked your comment, but at the same time, the idea does not work in practice.

Remember 2022? Last year....government had a set budget for subsidy. All set in stone. Then Ukraine war happened...and crude oil prices went sky high, meaning subsidy costs went up. THEN...the weather ran amok from August onwards...raising transport costs....

At the end, subsidy costs had risen beyond what the budget could cover. Meaning government had to take money from other parts of the budget and borrow and borrow again, and even then, the government had to raise fuel prices twice

The government always has a fixed price, including last year, and this is why they exceed the subsidy budget. Get rid of the fixed price and when the budgeted amount runs out for the year, fuel price can continue rising but at least injecting some subsidy funding makes the rate of increase smoother for the economy and helps with inflation (inflation is afterall a question of rate of price growth).

People are fixated with the idea that subsidized fuel means the government committs to a price that fuel will be sold at because this is how we have always done it in Nigeria. It's definitely not the case that subsidy has to be structured this way and only this way.

The idea that this way of removing subsidy gradually has failed before in Nigeria is incorrect because all partial removal I can recall (including GEJ's 2012 reduction) involved setting the price at a higher level which was bound to fail with time as there would be no political will/capital left to change the price again when Nigeria's persistent inflation problem rendered the fixed price obsolete/expensive. By discarding of the tendency to set fuel price, the government will allow market forces largely determine price but slow the rate of increase to allow for easier adjustment to the resulting price shock. It's the same reason why central banks often increase interest rates slowly toward a target level - to reduce risks to the economy associated with sudden price shocks.

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Politics / Re: IMF: Nigeria’s Economic Growth To Slow by 4Play(m): 7:24am On Aug 14, 2023
grandstar:


Partial removal of the petrol prices has never really worked here.

Now, what if the government partially removed subsidy and pegged the price at N400, will the present drop in the Naira and inflation not make the N400 outdated?

You see citizens stating that government removed 80% of subsidy at such a time, how come the subsidy is high today? All the masses want is cheap petrol.

Though petrol is no longer subsidized, the price is not deregulated. Government needs to go the whole nine yards. Anyway, you did mention a need for caution which might also have steadied the government's hand. There's a limit to the amount of suffering the masses are prepared to tolerate.

They don't have to fix a price, they could set a fixed subsidy budget. Say N500bn in year one, N400bn in year two, and so on.

That way, the fuel price is partly driven by market forces but the overall increase in price is limited.

I am all against doing the same things that haven't worked in the past but a fixed subsidy budget (which reduces each year) is different from simply fixing a new price which is what past partial removals entailed.

If your fear is that exchange rate depreciation will keep pushing fuel price up, one way of amplifying depreciation is to add to inflationary pressures.

If the government isn't prepared for much higher CBN interest rates and what I suggested before (an IMF bailout to obtain scarce forex), we will learn the hard way when inflation pummels the economy to smithereens.

1 Like

Politics / Re: Breaking: 1$ Is Now #940 by 4Play(m): 3:35pm On Aug 10, 2023
I was surprised to see people like Wale Edun say the naira will stabilise around N700 to the dollar.

I think restoring confidence in naira will require 2 anchors which are missing. The first and quickest are significant increases in the CBN's interest rate to at least 30% to curtail inflation. I don't think the wholesale removal of fuel subsidy helped the inflation picture.

The second and more difficult is a set of comprehensive reforms (privatization, deregulation, etc) that will signal to markets/foreign investors that this government represents a radical change to what preceded before.

I think that whilst the devaluation of the exchange rate was welcome, the government still seems wedded to the idea of managing the exchange rate and it maintains restrictions to forex access. People may come to see what the CBN did recently as just another round of naira devaluation. One of many Nigeria has undertaken since the early 80s when 70 kobo could get you $1.
Politics / Re: IMF: Nigeria’s Economic Growth To Slow by 4Play(m): 3:16pm On Aug 10, 2023
grandstar:


How do you remove petrol subsidy gradually in an economy plagued with double digit inflation and a product whose international price is volatile?

If it was a product whose price was static and in an economy where inflation was low such as 2%, such would be feasible.

Shock therapy was needed. The government purse is empty. The subsidy was estimated to cost 2.3% of GDP this year alone, in a country where tax collection is barely 10% of GDP, this was clearly high.

As you yourself pointed out, Nigeria debt sustainability is poor. Shock Therapy was necessary and the markets rewarded its removal.

It's precisely because inflation is high that the full removal of subsidy at once is ill-advised. The higher the fuel price, the higher the rare of inflation.

High levels of inflation undermine economic confidence, currency stability and ultimately override any gains in debt sustainability.

By the way, I think the government's reforms are half-baked. For instance, the spread between the official and black market exchange rates is re-emerging partly because the CBN retains restrictions on forex access to certain items and I suspect highly connected people can't let go of the round-tripping opportunities multiple exchange rates offer.

At the end, foreign investors will come to see Tinubu’s policies as driven by desperation to sustain/increase government spending rather than a genuine embrace of wholesale reforms.

As for the markets, I don't know if you are aware that Nigerian equity markets were one of the world's best performing in 2020 and 2022, as well as posting a decent performance in 2021.

https://www.thecable.ng/nse-ranked-2020-best-performing-stock-market

https://tribuneonlineng.com/nigerian-equities-market-gains-n5-7trn-to-rank-4th-globally/

https://businessday.ng/markets/article/nigerias-stock-market-ends-year-2021-with-positive-return-of-6-7/

The currency market (which is much bigger than the stock market), and the bond market to a lesser extent, are painting a different picture.

Until reforms are comprehensive and inflation is brought under control, things will continue to get worse. I think the way fuel subsidy has been removed, despite the splattering of positive comments by some foreigners, will amplify Nigeria's economic problems.
Politics / Re: IMF: Nigeria’s Economic Growth To Slow by 4Play(m): 8:45am On Jul 27, 2023
seunmsg:


We’ve been doing phase removal of subsidy since 1999 and we never got to remove it fully until Tinubu came in. The problem with removing subsidy is not whether it should be gradual or at once but our willingness to allow market forces determine the price.

Labour fully accepted the removal of subsidy when price was moved to N537. Now that market forces have pushed the price above N600, they want to go on strike. Do we need anybody to explain to Labour leader that forcing government to bring down the price is a return to subsidy?

But now the government is considering costly palliatives and there is even talk of increasing public sector wages. If you are going to spend N500bn on palliatives, you might as well commit to spending only N500bn on subsidy.

You have to remember that the ultimate objective of economic policy is promoting economic prosperity. Market-determined prices are a means to an end, not the end in itself.

I suspect most African countries have market-determined fuel prices. But they have no prosperity.

The increase in inflation, at the same time that the currency is under pressure, will mean that most people will experience worsening poverty amplifying social instability and it will make it less likely that the government can follow through with more needed reforms because it's spent so much political capital for little apparent (to the average Nigerian) benefit.

1 Like

Politics / Re: IMF: Nigeria’s Economic Growth To Slow by 4Play(m): 8:06am On Jul 27, 2023
TheBillyonaire:


They monitor every economy now, not just those that seek lending, boy.

Spying for the highest bidder.

It's the IMF's role to monitor and give advice to all countries. They give advice to the US, UK, Germany, China, etc.

No country needs to take their advice but analysing economic policies and providing recommendations is part and parcel of their function.
Politics / Re: IMF: Nigeria’s Economic Growth To Slow by 4Play(m): 7:49am On Jul 27, 2023
nedu666:


Define short and long term using number of years

I will say around 10 years.

After the initial shock of a change in the price level of petrol, future changes will happen at a slower rate so living standards will adjust better. In the meantime, the money used in subsidizing petrol will be put to better use even if some of it is embezzled which happens with subsidy money anyway.

I would have preferred that the removal is done gradually to mitigate the impact on Nigerians but better it be removed than not all.
Politics / Re: IMF: Nigeria’s Economic Growth To Slow by 4Play(m): 6:09pm On Jul 26, 2023
inoki247:
Is like IMF are on drugs after telling us to remove Subsidy remove this and that we don remove now they're still yarning jargons...

Removing subsidy should have long-term positive impacts but will be painful in the short-term. Personally, I would have preferred a gradual phasing out of subsidy but it's better to remove it than to leave it in place.

2 Likes 1 Share

Politics / IMF: Nigeria’s Economic Growth To Slow by 4Play(m): 5:53pm On Jul 26, 2023
The International Monetary Fund has projected that Nigeria’s economic growth will decline in 2023 and 2024 due to security issues in the oil sector.

It stated that the country’s economy would grow at 3.2 per cent in 2023, before declining to 3.0 per cent in 2024.

The IMF disclosed this in its latest ‘World Economic Outlook Update: Near-Term Resilience, Persistent Challenges (July 2023)’ report.

Nigeria’s growth is below projections for the Sub-Saharan African region which is expected to grow by 3.5 per cent in 2023 and 4.1 per cent in 2024, according to the report.

https://punchng.com/insecurity-will-slow-nigerias-growth-says-imf/

1 Like

Politics / Re: Confiscation Order: Ibori Can Appeal To Higher Courts In UK — Sagay by 4Play(m): 3:21pm On Jul 22, 2023
The pertinent question is how is someone who was thieving from a UK store in the 1990s suddenly so rich?

Sure, he can appeal but how did he come about his wealth?
Politics / Re: Gunmen Kill 20, Burn Several Houses In Plateau Communities by 4Play(m): 10:50pm On Jun 21, 2023
LagosFirstSon:
The killing continued because Tinubu promised to continue from where Buhari stopped

This is a stupid take. Fulani killings have been going on long before Buhari and are actually widespread across West and Central Africa. It doesn't matter who you have as president.

What the president can do is significantly increase the size of the military and police, in addition to providing them with the equipmen, to combat this insecurity.

2 Likes 2 Shares

Politics / Re: TINUBUNOMICS: Naira Depreciates By 16% To N770.38/$ by 4Play(m): 10:17pm On Jun 21, 2023
grandstar:


Why the crash? Should the CBN defend the Naira? Should a new competent CBN head, preferably a western trained economist be appointed? Or is this Naira Shock therapy?

Edit: I chose to re-read the article and it provided reasons for the problem. The revelation here is that there was simply pent up demand for forex, a massive overhang from the Emefiele era. The CBN might need to increase supply of dollars to the market to cool it down.

Would an increase in interest rates by the CBN cool it down, or should the Naira be allowed to find its true value no matter how low it goes?


I think people should worry less about the naira losing value, unless it's falling dramatically. A gradual decline to N1000 to $1 over the next 4 years doesn't worry me. If it happens within months, that will be troubling.

In the long run and given high inflation in Nigeria, naira will continue depreciating unless we overcome the inflation problem. We will need higher interest rates and restraints on fiscal spending to conquer inflation. Unfortunately, we will have go backwards to go forward but we need to be a bit cautious.

It's why I am worried about taking off fuel subsidy immediately instead of my preferred gradual elimination. There is only so much pain Nigerians can endure in such a short duration and you risk replaying the Russian/ex-Soviet states situation of the 1990s when market-led reforms at the end of the communist era were rushed through causing extreme poverty and financial crises and discrediting the reform process.
Politics / Re: TINUBUNOMICS: Naira Depreciates By 16% To N770.38/$ by 4Play(m): 2:01pm On Jun 20, 2023
CodeTemplar:
Wonderful. I hope it comes down as economists have predicted.

In the long run, the naira will continue to fall until we get inflation well under control.

The Tinubu propagandists should have held off on talking about naira strength as this is not well founded.

1 Like

Politics / Is Dozy Mmobuosi A Fraud? by 4Play(m): 3:18pm On Jun 06, 2023
The Nigerian "billionaire" who tried to buy Sheffield United is accused of being a fraudster in a new research report published today:

https://hindenburgresearch.com/tingo/

We are short Tingo Group Inc (NASDAQ:TIO) because we believe the company is an exceptionally obvious scam with completely fabricated financials.

Tingo, headquartered in New Jersey, claims to have several business segments focused on providing mobile phones, food processing and an online food marketplace for farmers primarily located in Nigeria

Tingo was founded and is spearheaded by “Dozy” Mmobuosi, CEO of the key holding company entity. Dozy is regularly described by the media as a billionaire and made waves earlier this year when he attempted to acquire the now-Premier League soccer team Sheffield United.

We’ve identified major red flags with Dozy’s background. For starters, he appears to have fabricated his biographical claim to have developed the first mobile payment app in Nigeria. We contacted the app’s actual creator, who called Dozy’s claims “a pure lie”.
Dozy claimed to have received a PhD in rural advancement from a Malaysian university in 2007. We contacted the school to verify the degree. They wrote back saying no one by his name was found in their verification system.

In 2017, Dozy was arrested and faced an 8-count indictment over issuance of bad checks, according to the Nigerian Economic and Financial Crimes Commission. He later settled the case in arbitration.

In 2019, Dozy claimed to have launched “Tingo Airlines” and posted social media messages encouraging customers to “fly with Tingo Airlines today”. Media outlets later uncovered that Tingo had photoshopped its logo onto pictures of airplanes. Dozy later admitted to never owning any actual aircraft.

We strongly suspect Tingo’s cash balance, which it conveniently claims is held in Nigeria, is fake. The company collected only ~12% of the interest income one would expect from its claimed cash balances.

Overall, we think Tingo is a worthless and brazen fraud that should serve as a humiliating embarrassment for all involved. We do not expect the company will be long for this world

3 Likes

Politics / Re: Seun Osewa Thought On Minimum Wage on twitter that got people talking! by 4Play(m): 2:22pm On Jun 03, 2023
IamV:
Seun Osewa,the owner of nairaland opinion on the increase of minimum wage in respect to the increase in fuel price on twitter today got many talking .
Here's his opinion on increasing the minimum wage ;


If I may ask,what do you think about his opinion on this issue?

He is on the right track. 99% of Nigerians are not civil servants or related to civil servants.

The average Nigerian is a rural dweller, living on subsistence farming, cattle herding or fishing. They don't have time or even access to Twitter or much of the internet. Nobody speaks for them or tries to change govt policy to benefit them (I believe subsidy for kerosene was removed years ago to virtual silence from Nigerians).

The government should aim to improve the quality of life for the average Nigerian, not the vocal urban/city dwellers who frequent places like Nairaland and Twitter. To this end, carefully targeted palliatives would be useful. They can even use the money to pay for healthcare access or access to primary and secondary education (maybe aim for free education up to SS3 level) improving health and human capital.

If civil servants feel that working for the government is uniquely bad, they can try a different line of work.

Nigeria can't afford another big increase in recurrent expenditure to pay higher civil servant wages. It is disingenuous to suggest that the way to provide welfare aid to reduce poverty in Nigeria is by increasing civil service pay when civil servants are arguably already better off than most Nigerians. That's why people pay bribes to be hired as civil servants!
Politics / Re: In Case You Don't Know The Root Cause Of Our Problems Today by 4Play(m): 7:08am On Jun 02, 2023
No need for long explanation. There was an oil boom in the 1970s which made the overall economy buoyant except for export (non-oil) sectors of the economy like agriculture.

Once the oil boom ended from 1980, and almost solely dependent on oil for exports, the whole economy went into a significant slump.

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Politics / Re: BREAKING: TinuBULL As Nigerian Stocks Post 5.2% Gain After Inauguration Speech by 4Play(m): 6:39pm On May 30, 2023
That's an impressive response even if it's just one day yet. Fuel subsidy removal will cause a lot of short-term hardship and I would have preferred a gradual phasing out but in the long run, it's a step in the right direction.

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Politics / Re: Subsidy Removal Won’t Take Immediate Effect - Tinubu Clarifies by 4Play(m): 4:46pm On May 30, 2023
If this u-turn story is accurate, spare a thought for his supporters who argued yesterday that the immediacy of the subsidy removal was unavoidable.

Now they have to spin the postponement as another evidence of Tinubu's earth-shattering sagacity and wisdom.

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Politics / Re: Racism, Xenophobia And Tribalism | Nigerians And Double Standards by 4Play(m): 6:43pm On May 27, 2023
Nigerians resent racism against blacks in the same way ISIS or Al Qaeda resent discrimination against Muslims or the KKK resent discrimination against whites.

In other words, we are not against prejudice and discrimination in principle, we are just against being at the receiving end of it.
Politics / Re: Buhari’s People Are Not Making Things Easier For His Successor, Nigerians - Sani by 4Play(m): 12:59pm On May 24, 2023
It will be silly if Tinubu and his defenders start blaming Buhari in a few months for disappointment with the new government when Tinubu was partly responsible for Buhari being in power.

Having benefited from supporting Buhari to further his personal ambitions, the negative fallout from Buhari's ineptitude have to be taken as the logical consequences of his support.

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