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Politics / Re: Naira Crash: Tinubu Government Destroying Buhari's Legacy - Opinion by 4Play(m): 8:20pm On Oct 19, 2023 |
A huge IMF loan is necessary to inject forex into the economy. We also need big hikes in interest rates to cool down inflation and make the naira relatively more attractive to hold. The fact that the CBN has not responded with rate hikes worries me and suggests a degree of ineptitude or cowardice on their part. They need to also start looking at assets (including the ports and NNPC/refineries) to sell to foreign investors as this can draw in forex. There is a whole range of policy reforms they can pursue to build confidence and almost 1/2 year is gone and they are still focusing on propaganda with a nearly comatose president who is too brain-dead to master policy details. If you want to read about the textbook case on how to get out of this malaise, look at the reforms undertaken by South Korea from 1997 after its financial crisis. 2 Likes |
Foreign Affairs / South Africa Set To Briefly Overtake Nigeria As Africa's Biggest Economy by 4Play(m): 1:26pm On Oct 17, 2023 |
Can't see this lasting simply because Nigeria has lower GDP per capita, lower levels of economic development and faster population growth which should mean we are more likely to experience "catch up" growth. South Africa is projected to briefly surpass Nigeria and Egypt as the largest economy on the continent next year, International Monetary Fund forecasts reveal. https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/south-africa-to-overtake-nigeria-and-reclaim-its-position-as-africas-biggest-economy/0w4zjb9 2 Likes |
Health / Uk-Based Nigerian Nurses In Exam Fraud Scandal by 4Play(m): 5:44pm On Sep 23, 2023 |
Almost 50 overseas trained nurses and midwives in the UK who 'likely' qualified fraudulently are still being allowed to treat patients while under investigation, MailOnline can reveal. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12545343/nurses-midwives-Nigeria-working-UK-exam-results-fraudulen.html See also story covered in Punch: https://punchng.com/exam-results-uk-nursing-council-raises-concern-over-widespread-fraud-in-ibadan-centre/ 1 Like |
Business / Re: Nigeria Downgraded From FTSE Russell Equity Index by 4Play(m): 8:53am On Sep 18, 2023 |
HopeSpencer: So to you, this is good news? You can't easily attract capital if capital repatriation is hindered. Nigeria won't grow without large scale capital importation. 3 Likes 1 Share |
Business / Re: Nigeria Downgraded From FTSE Russell Equity Index by 4Play(m): 8:52am On Sep 18, 2023 |
There has been a lot of hullabaloo about reforms undertaken by this government. A few weeks ago, for instance, I was arguing the government was wrong to immediately remove fuel subsidy. In hindsight, I have come to realise what seems to have been done is to effectively reduce subsidy, not eliminate it. That's not bad in itself (I prefer this) but the deceptiveness of government policy pronouncements fuels mistrust. The same thing is happening with the FX market where I have always thought immediate liberalization is necessary to eliminate the gap between the official and black markets and enable the market determine the exchange rate. In reality, what they have done is depreciate the official rate but the chasm between it and the black market rate remains and is increasing. In reality, not much has changed but a little bit of honesty and transparency would be useful to help buoy international investors' confidence. Nigerians already have a reputation for being deceitful, it's unhelpful if the Nigerian government conforms to that stereotype. 2 Likes |
Business / Nigeria Downgraded From FTSE Russell Equity Index by 4Play(m): 8:36am On Sep 18, 2023 |
Nigeria has been demoted from a frontier market to an unclassified market one year after an annual equity country classification review by FTSE Russell, a subsidiary of London Stock Exchange Group, placed Africa’s largest economy on its watch list of countries monitored for possible reclassification. https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/624940-nigeria-downgraded-on-ftse-russell-equity-indices.html 1 Like 1 Share
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Crime / Re: Nigerian Superstition: Man Kills Mum In UK Over Witchcraft by 4Play(m): 6:33pm On Aug 31, 2023 |
NaBanga: You might be right. The schizophrenia is there but how it manifests itself in a person could depend on the person's cultural background. There are examples of white European schizophrenic killers, and they often cite something culture-specific (like the government or aliens are spying on them). That being said, there are a lot of elderly women in Nigeria (this is quite common in Anambra which I am familiar with) who experience a lot of degrading abuse/isolation because people have concluded they are witches. 2 Likes |
Crime / Re: Nigerian Superstition: Man Kills Mum In UK Over Witchcraft by 4Play(m): 6:24pm On Aug 31, 2023 |
itsme01: They don't have death sentence in the UK, most severe is life imprisonment without parole. The schizophrenia defence has been used before in a similar case from 2009: A divorced father of three stabbed his mother 21 times after becoming convinced that she was a witch and had put a curse on him, a court heard today. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/killer-son-stabbed-witch-mother-21-times-1829314.html 1 Like |
Crime / Nigerian Superstition: Man Kills Mum In UK Over Witchcraft by 4Play(m): 6:12pm On Aug 31, 2023 |
We really need to get rid of these superstitious beliefs. Had this guy been in Nigeria, people would have accorded his accusations against his mum some credibility instead of the schizophrenia diagnosis he got in the UK: A mentally ill man may be locked up for the rest of his life after today admitting killing his mother because he believed she was practising black magic against him. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12465751/Schizophrenic-killer-stabbed-mother-death-thought-using-black-magic-stopped-taking-medication-wanted-lose-weight.html |
Politics / Italian PM Giorgia Meloni Claimed Nigerians Practice Cannibalism by 4Play(m): 7:09am On Aug 21, 2023 |
The Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, in 2019 co-authored a racist book titled the Nigerian Mafia in which, among other things, she talked about cannibalism in Nigeria. Cannibalism and the Nigerian mafia https://news.italy24.press/books/791821.html 7 Likes 1 Share
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Politics / Re: IMF: Nigeria’s Economic Growth To Slow by 4Play(m): 8:55am On Aug 15, 2023 |
I think the end point of all this debate is the country needs a massive IMF bailout (injecting forex) to make the transition to higher prices and higher CBN interest rates smoother. In 2015, I was worried the new Buhari government will impoverish us and plunge the government into a fiscal crisis. I think we have got to that point and instead of engaging in this wishful thinking that things will work out in the end, we need to recognize that we need foreign bailout ASAP. In economics, how you get to a goal matters as much, if not more, than the goal you are pursuing. Introducing price shocks whilst cavalierly claiming that we will be fine in the long run can introduce some negative self-reinforcing dynamics as each business closure leads to more business closures and as naira depreciation potentially leads to panic. Correct me if I am wrong, but I think the naira has fallen at a faster rate in the parallel market since Tinubu took office than it did at the same point in Buhari's new tenure. If things go badly wrong here, it will take a very long while to ever convince Nigerians to adopt much needed pro-market reforms. |
Politics / Re: IMF: Nigeria’s Economic Growth To Slow by 4Play(m): 8:54am On Aug 15, 2023 |
nairalanda1: The government always has a fixed price, including last year, and this is why they exceed the subsidy budget. Get rid of the fixed price and when the budgeted amount runs out for the year, fuel price can continue rising but at least injecting some subsidy funding makes the rate of increase smoother for the economy and helps with inflation (inflation is afterall a question of rate of price growth). People are fixated with the idea that subsidized fuel means the government committs to a price that fuel will be sold at because this is how we have always done it in Nigeria. It's definitely not the case that subsidy has to be structured this way and only this way. The idea that this way of removing subsidy gradually has failed before in Nigeria is incorrect because all partial removal I can recall (including GEJ's 2012 reduction) involved setting the price at a higher level which was bound to fail with time as there would be no political will/capital left to change the price again when Nigeria's persistent inflation problem rendered the fixed price obsolete/expensive. By discarding of the tendency to set fuel price, the government will allow market forces largely determine price but slow the rate of increase to allow for easier adjustment to the resulting price shock. It's the same reason why central banks often increase interest rates slowly toward a target level - to reduce risks to the economy associated with sudden price shocks. 1 Like 1 Share |
Politics / Re: IMF: Nigeria’s Economic Growth To Slow by 4Play(m): 7:24am On Aug 14, 2023 |
grandstar: They don't have to fix a price, they could set a fixed subsidy budget. Say N500bn in year one, N400bn in year two, and so on. That way, the fuel price is partly driven by market forces but the overall increase in price is limited. I am all against doing the same things that haven't worked in the past but a fixed subsidy budget (which reduces each year) is different from simply fixing a new price which is what past partial removals entailed. If your fear is that exchange rate depreciation will keep pushing fuel price up, one way of amplifying depreciation is to add to inflationary pressures. If the government isn't prepared for much higher CBN interest rates and what I suggested before (an IMF bailout to obtain scarce forex), we will learn the hard way when inflation pummels the economy to smithereens. 1 Like |
Politics / Re: Breaking: 1$ Is Now #940 by 4Play(m): 3:35pm On Aug 10, 2023 |
I was surprised to see people like Wale Edun say the naira will stabilise around N700 to the dollar. I think restoring confidence in naira will require 2 anchors which are missing. The first and quickest are significant increases in the CBN's interest rate to at least 30% to curtail inflation. I don't think the wholesale removal of fuel subsidy helped the inflation picture. The second and more difficult is a set of comprehensive reforms (privatization, deregulation, etc) that will signal to markets/foreign investors that this government represents a radical change to what preceded before. I think that whilst the devaluation of the exchange rate was welcome, the government still seems wedded to the idea of managing the exchange rate and it maintains restrictions to forex access. People may come to see what the CBN did recently as just another round of naira devaluation. One of many Nigeria has undertaken since the early 80s when 70 kobo could get you $1. |
Politics / Re: IMF: Nigeria’s Economic Growth To Slow by 4Play(m): 3:16pm On Aug 10, 2023 |
grandstar: It's precisely because inflation is high that the full removal of subsidy at once is ill-advised. The higher the fuel price, the higher the rare of inflation. High levels of inflation undermine economic confidence, currency stability and ultimately override any gains in debt sustainability. By the way, I think the government's reforms are half-baked. For instance, the spread between the official and black market exchange rates is re-emerging partly because the CBN retains restrictions on forex access to certain items and I suspect highly connected people can't let go of the round-tripping opportunities multiple exchange rates offer. At the end, foreign investors will come to see Tinubu’s policies as driven by desperation to sustain/increase government spending rather than a genuine embrace of wholesale reforms. As for the markets, I don't know if you are aware that Nigerian equity markets were one of the world's best performing in 2020 and 2022, as well as posting a decent performance in 2021. https://www.thecable.ng/nse-ranked-2020-best-performing-stock-market https://tribuneonlineng.com/nigerian-equities-market-gains-n5-7trn-to-rank-4th-globally/ https://businessday.ng/markets/article/nigerias-stock-market-ends-year-2021-with-positive-return-of-6-7/ The currency market (which is much bigger than the stock market), and the bond market to a lesser extent, are painting a different picture. Until reforms are comprehensive and inflation is brought under control, things will continue to get worse. I think the way fuel subsidy has been removed, despite the splattering of positive comments by some foreigners, will amplify Nigeria's economic problems. |
Politics / Re: IMF: Nigeria’s Economic Growth To Slow by 4Play(m): 8:45am On Jul 27, 2023 |
seunmsg: But now the government is considering costly palliatives and there is even talk of increasing public sector wages. If you are going to spend N500bn on palliatives, you might as well commit to spending only N500bn on subsidy. You have to remember that the ultimate objective of economic policy is promoting economic prosperity. Market-determined prices are a means to an end, not the end in itself. I suspect most African countries have market-determined fuel prices. But they have no prosperity. The increase in inflation, at the same time that the currency is under pressure, will mean that most people will experience worsening poverty amplifying social instability and it will make it less likely that the government can follow through with more needed reforms because it's spent so much political capital for little apparent (to the average Nigerian) benefit. 1 Like |
Politics / Re: IMF: Nigeria’s Economic Growth To Slow by 4Play(m): 8:06am On Jul 27, 2023 |
TheBillyonaire: It's the IMF's role to monitor and give advice to all countries. They give advice to the US, UK, Germany, China, etc. No country needs to take their advice but analysing economic policies and providing recommendations is part and parcel of their function. |
Politics / Re: IMF: Nigeria’s Economic Growth To Slow by 4Play(m): 7:49am On Jul 27, 2023 |
nedu666: I will say around 10 years. After the initial shock of a change in the price level of petrol, future changes will happen at a slower rate so living standards will adjust better. In the meantime, the money used in subsidizing petrol will be put to better use even if some of it is embezzled which happens with subsidy money anyway. I would have preferred that the removal is done gradually to mitigate the impact on Nigerians but better it be removed than not all. |
Politics / Re: IMF: Nigeria’s Economic Growth To Slow by 4Play(m): 6:09pm On Jul 26, 2023 |
inoki247: Removing subsidy should have long-term positive impacts but will be painful in the short-term. Personally, I would have preferred a gradual phasing out of subsidy but it's better to remove it than to leave it in place. 2 Likes 1 Share |
Politics / IMF: Nigeria’s Economic Growth To Slow by 4Play(m): 5:53pm On Jul 26, 2023 |
The International Monetary Fund has projected that Nigeria’s economic growth will decline in 2023 and 2024 due to security issues in the oil sector. https://punchng.com/insecurity-will-slow-nigerias-growth-says-imf/ 1 Like |
Politics / Re: Confiscation Order: Ibori Can Appeal To Higher Courts In UK — Sagay by 4Play(m): 3:21pm On Jul 22, 2023 |
The pertinent question is how is someone who was thieving from a UK store in the 1990s suddenly so rich? Sure, he can appeal but how did he come about his wealth? |
Politics / Re: Gunmen Kill 20, Burn Several Houses In Plateau Communities by 4Play(m): 10:50pm On Jun 21, 2023 |
LagosFirstSon: This is a stupid take. Fulani killings have been going on long before Buhari and are actually widespread across West and Central Africa. It doesn't matter who you have as president. What the president can do is significantly increase the size of the military and police, in addition to providing them with the equipmen, to combat this insecurity. 2 Likes 2 Shares |
Politics / Re: TINUBUNOMICS: Naira Depreciates By 16% To N770.38/$ by 4Play(m): 10:17pm On Jun 21, 2023 |
grandstar: I think people should worry less about the naira losing value, unless it's falling dramatically. A gradual decline to N1000 to $1 over the next 4 years doesn't worry me. If it happens within months, that will be troubling. In the long run and given high inflation in Nigeria, naira will continue depreciating unless we overcome the inflation problem. We will need higher interest rates and restraints on fiscal spending to conquer inflation. Unfortunately, we will have go backwards to go forward but we need to be a bit cautious. It's why I am worried about taking off fuel subsidy immediately instead of my preferred gradual elimination. There is only so much pain Nigerians can endure in such a short duration and you risk replaying the Russian/ex-Soviet states situation of the 1990s when market-led reforms at the end of the communist era were rushed through causing extreme poverty and financial crises and discrediting the reform process. |
Politics / Re: TINUBUNOMICS: Naira Depreciates By 16% To N770.38/$ by 4Play(m): 2:01pm On Jun 20, 2023 |
CodeTemplar: In the long run, the naira will continue to fall until we get inflation well under control. The Tinubu propagandists should have held off on talking about naira strength as this is not well founded. 1 Like |
Politics / Is Dozy Mmobuosi A Fraud? by 4Play(m): 3:18pm On Jun 06, 2023 |
The Nigerian "billionaire" who tried to buy Sheffield United is accused of being a fraudster in a new research report published today: https://hindenburgresearch.com/tingo/ We are short Tingo Group Inc (NASDAQ:TIO) because we believe the company is an exceptionally obvious scam with completely fabricated financials. 3 Likes |
Politics / Re: Seun Osewa Thought On Minimum Wage on twitter that got people talking! by 4Play(m): 2:22pm On Jun 03, 2023 |
IamV: He is on the right track. 99% of Nigerians are not civil servants or related to civil servants. The average Nigerian is a rural dweller, living on subsistence farming, cattle herding or fishing. They don't have time or even access to Twitter or much of the internet. Nobody speaks for them or tries to change govt policy to benefit them (I believe subsidy for kerosene was removed years ago to virtual silence from Nigerians). The government should aim to improve the quality of life for the average Nigerian, not the vocal urban/city dwellers who frequent places like Nairaland and Twitter. To this end, carefully targeted palliatives would be useful. They can even use the money to pay for healthcare access or access to primary and secondary education (maybe aim for free education up to SS3 level) improving health and human capital. If civil servants feel that working for the government is uniquely bad, they can try a different line of work. Nigeria can't afford another big increase in recurrent expenditure to pay higher civil servant wages. It is disingenuous to suggest that the way to provide welfare aid to reduce poverty in Nigeria is by increasing civil service pay when civil servants are arguably already better off than most Nigerians. That's why people pay bribes to be hired as civil servants! |
Politics / Re: In Case You Don't Know The Root Cause Of Our Problems Today by 4Play(m): 7:08am On Jun 02, 2023 |
No need for long explanation. There was an oil boom in the 1970s which made the overall economy buoyant except for export (non-oil) sectors of the economy like agriculture. Once the oil boom ended from 1980, and almost solely dependent on oil for exports, the whole economy went into a significant slump. 3 Likes |
Politics / Re: BREAKING: TinuBULL As Nigerian Stocks Post 5.2% Gain After Inauguration Speech by 4Play(m): 6:39pm On May 30, 2023 |
That's an impressive response even if it's just one day yet. Fuel subsidy removal will cause a lot of short-term hardship and I would have preferred a gradual phasing out but in the long run, it's a step in the right direction. 1 Like |
Politics / Re: Subsidy Removal Won’t Take Immediate Effect - Tinubu Clarifies by 4Play(m): 4:46pm On May 30, 2023 |
If this u-turn story is accurate, spare a thought for his supporters who argued yesterday that the immediacy of the subsidy removal was unavoidable. Now they have to spin the postponement as another evidence of Tinubu's earth-shattering sagacity and wisdom. 64 Likes 6 Shares |
Politics / Re: Racism, Xenophobia And Tribalism | Nigerians And Double Standards by 4Play(m): 6:43pm On May 27, 2023 |
Nigerians resent racism against blacks in the same way ISIS or Al Qaeda resent discrimination against Muslims or the KKK resent discrimination against whites. In other words, we are not against prejudice and discrimination in principle, we are just against being at the receiving end of it. |
Politics / Re: Buhari’s People Are Not Making Things Easier For His Successor, Nigerians - Sani by 4Play(m): 12:59pm On May 24, 2023 |
It will be silly if Tinubu and his defenders start blaming Buhari in a few months for disappointment with the new government when Tinubu was partly responsible for Buhari being in power. Having benefited from supporting Buhari to further his personal ambitions, the negative fallout from Buhari's ineptitude have to be taken as the logical consequences of his support. 14 Likes 2 Shares |
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