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 Culture / Re: Origin Of Ikwerre Denial Of Igbo Root! (A Political View) by 4Play(m): 8:32am On Aug 02, 2020 |
I think this debate misses a salient point: Igbos are the Igbo speaking ethnic groups located in the geographical Southeast of Nigeria. Same goes for many ethnic groups including Yoruba. The idea of referring to one's self as Igbo is a relatively modern phenomenon. 100 or 200 years ago, a person from Awka would state that they are from Awka and won't necessarily describe themselves as Igbo. The idea of a common ethnic identity was a byproduct of the formation of the Nigerian state. People who shared a common language unified to better compete, as they saw it, in the face of burgeoning ethnicity driven rivalries. So whether a person/ group recognises that they are Igbo, it's somewhat neither here nor there as the nomenclatural designation of Igbo is more a linguistic marker than a biological fact. 5 Likes |
| Crime / Re: Emmanuel Adeniji: Nigerian Man Rapes 73-Year-Old Woman In Ireland by 4Play(m): 10:42pm On Aug 01, 2020 |
pocohantas: If we channel the energy we spend in Nigeria insulting women who have the temerity to allege rape to inculcating a sense of restraint and the importance of consent in sexual matters, it will go a long way in curtailing sexual violence. 2 Likes |
| Crime / Re: Canadian Lady Says Men Should Shut Up And Accept False Rape Allegations (pics) by 4Play(m): 12:11pm On Jul 30, 2020 |
lecturer50: You sure this "woman" you talked to is not Bobrisky or perhaps a figment of your imagination? 1 Like |
| Crime / Re: Canadian Lady Says Men Should Shut Up And Accept False Rape Allegations (pics) by 4Play(m): 12:08pm On Jul 30, 2020 |
Nobody has quite worked out that this is a parody twitter account. Guys here are too busy indulging in fake male victimhood, always looking for evidence that women are going around falsely accusing men. 1 Like |
| Investment / Re: Us Stocks Pick Alert by 4Play(m): 9:26pm On Jul 28, 2020 |
nna777: To enjoy long-term success, short-term traders need excellent knowledge of technical analysis and or a knack for pattern recognition. In a sense, technicals drive the market in the short-term (absent major news event) and fundamentals in the long run. For example, Microsoft's share price growth over a 5 year time frame depends to a large extent on its earnings growth. Its share price move over a week or two is largely dependent on technical analysis (unless a major news event occurs). Once a major news event occurs (earnings release, regulatory action, covid outbreak etc), the share price move in the short-term is still largely about technicals. By technicals, you are basically looking at: trends (up or down), key support/resistance levels, popular moving averages (200 & 50 SMA), candlestick pattern, etc. 1 Like |
| Investment / Re: Us Stocks Pick Alert by 4Play(m): 12:59pm On Jul 23, 2020 |
Jayjaycee18: Tesla might do a whipsaw. Many seem to expect a linear rise to $2000 but there was a lot of selling when it spiked to $1800 intraday. 1 Like
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| Politics / Re: Student Who Created Jonathan Parody Twitter Account Detained For 54 Days by 4Play(m): 4:38pm On Jul 17, 2020 |
Abuse of power by the police. The twitter profile is clearly not GEJ's as he makes it explicit that it's not him. Had he not done so and used it to solicit for business, then there would be a case to answer. 7 Likes |
| Investment / Re: Us Stocks Pick Alert by 4Play(m): 10:11pm On Jul 15, 2020 |
sonnie10: I think Moderna's positive vaccine trials is boosting so called cyclical stocks: airlines, cruiselines, hotels, cinemas, apparel, etc. These stocks have suffered immensely due to the pandemic so any suggestion of progress on the vaccine front boosts them. 2 Likes |
| Crime / Re: False Rape Allegation Should Also Be Punishable (opinion) by 4Play(m): 8:46pm On Jul 11, 2020 |
As most rapes occur in private settings with no eyewitnesses, it's inevitable that there are incidents of false accusations. But the reality is that false accusations are relatively few compared to the true incidents of rape (most of which is unreported). This obsession with the idea that women are going around falsely alleging rape and that this should be given as equal an emphasis as we give to tackling rape reflects a culture of denial that you get in a society where sexual violence is rampant. Although it's very difficult to ascertain, there have been many recent studies of false rape accusations which suggest false accusations constitute up to 10% at most of reported rapes, some suggest as low as 1-2%. Admittedly, these studies are in the west but there is no reason to believe Nigerian women are more inclined to lie about rape given a cultural context where the menfolk are more interested in accusing every female alleged rape victim of being a liar. 6 Likes 2 Shares |
| Politics / Re: FG Spent N1.25trn On Debt Service In 5 Months by 4Play(m): 9:07am On Jul 11, 2020 |
We were screaming in July 2015 when total debt was N12 trillion not knowing we will almost triple the figure in 5 years: LAGOS — Nigeria’s total internal and external debt stock stood at N12.06 trillion or $63.5 billion as at the end of March this year, up from N11.2 trillion or $67.726 billion in December 2014 according to figure released by the Debt Management Office (DMO) yesterday. https://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/07/n12trn-debt-profile-worsens-nigerias-woes/ 1 Like |
| Investment / Re: Us Stocks Pick Alert by 4Play(m): 11:04pm On Jul 10, 2020 |
OakPearl: 2 of the biggest regrets are when you sell too early and when you're waiting for a "pullback" to buy and the pullback never happens as you watch the stock accelerate higher. I had been watching Tesla in 2019 - following the debate on it when the stock price was going sideways for months. I remember coming back from Nigeria and seeing, in early December 2019, the breakout from consolidation I had been waiting for as it hit $400 but I decided to wait for a pull back. The bloody stock didn't look back and was close to $900 by February 2020 before covid-19 knocked it down giving me another buying opportunity which, of course, I didn't take! Considering I was in my village last year, this is definitely the fault of my village people. The lesson here is that if you're convinced a stock is moving higher, don't wait for the ideal entry. The main fear is buying Tesla and seeing it collapse as it's priced for perfection. But it's still definitely something short-term traders can buy for a run up toward $2k. Some other short-term plays not mentioned here, pardon me if I have missed it, are Draftking (DKNG) and Plugpower (PLUG). The latter is a lot more risky as it's run quite a bit but it's worth having a look for those who can afford to take the risk. 4 Likes 1 Share |
| Investment / Re: Us Stocks Pick Alert by 4Play(m): 8:55pm On Jul 06, 2020 |
OakPearl: The problem is very few people, not even professional investors, have a chance of knowing beforehand what stocks will prove to be a success. There is a lot of hindsight bias1 amongst investors - we look at a stock that exploded and conclude that we ''shoulda woulda coulda'' bought the stock and held on till we reaped loadsa money and that we will find the next bonanza stock(s). The reality is most stocks are duds over the long run so your chances of finding that great stock and holding on to it, as it rises and falls, are fairly slim. And it's not even about buying a growth industry stock like Tesla and NKLA with electric vehicles or Beyond Meat with artificial meat. An industry can be a success but most of the individual stocks within that industry can be widow makers. Think of the tech bubble that started in the 1990s and remember names like Blackberry, Motorola, Nokia, Yahoo.com, Palm (of Palm Pilot fame) etc. These companies operated in industries that were eventual successes but the stocks, like most stocks, proved disappointing. So, once again, my message is investors shouldn't overestimate their stock picking skills or fall foul of overconfidence bias.2 Obviously, in this environment where stocks are generally on the rise, most people might start letting their guards down. My stance remains that most people are safer just choosing indices. If you feel you are skilled enough to pick the right stocks, be prepared to lose or to experience average/mediocre returns over the long-run (over the course of years). Yes, there are anecdotes about investors/traders experiencing stunning successes but, like a lot of things in life, those are the exceptional cases and not the norm. Preaching moderation/caution to people on this thread might feel like preaching chastity to punters in a brothel but someone has to do it! 1. Hindsight bias is a psychological phenomenon that allows people to convince themselves after an event that they had accurately predicted it before it happened. This can lead people to conclude that they can accurately predict other events. Hindsight bias is studied in behavioral economics because it is a common failing of individual investors. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hindsight-bias.asp 2. Overconfidence Bias in Finance and Investing https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/overconfidence-bias/ 4 Likes 1 Share |
| Crime / Re: Dr. Olufunmilayo Sues Bola Aseyan, Demands £10,000 For Damages by 4Play(m): 12:27pm On Jul 03, 2020 |
eyinjuege: It's common sense. Most women have nothing to gain from making rape accusations as they will, irrespective of the credibility of their accusations, receive a backlash. So apart from a rare few bitter women, the mentally unbalanced or opportunists chasing celebrities, the vast majority of accusations are true and only constitute a tip of the iceberg. 2 Likes |
| Politics / Imported Fuel Dirtier Than Local Fuel by 4Play(m): 12:31pm On Jul 01, 2020 |
I found this interesting article which claims that the fuel we import into Nigeria is of a lower quality than that produced by illegal refineries in the Niger-Delta https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/jul/01/petrol-sold-to-nigeria-from-europe-dirtier-than-black-market-bush-fuel |
| Education / Re: Bowen University Sacks 100 Workers by 4Play(m): 12:15pm On Jun 25, 2020 |
This is why I thought the lockdowns in Nigeria are counterproductive. The economic hardship it will cause will be severe, longlasting and devastating on people's health. In turn, the impact of the lockdown on the spread of coronavirus will be negligible. 2 Likes |
| Education / Re: Eton College Apologises To Dilibe Onyeama For Racism. by 4Play(m): 7:32pm On Jun 23, 2020 |
koning: See below: But when the time came, Onyeama failed the entrance exams. Another Nigerian boy, Tokunbo Akintola, thus became the first black student in Eton, attracting global media attention. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-53062502 2 Likes |
| Investment / Re: Us Stocks Pick Alert by 4Play(m): 9:13pm On Jun 21, 2020 |
thesilentone: Hedge funds won't take money from small investors - this is not a thread that caters to the Dangotes or Otedolas. The assertion that retail investors - the people on this thread - struggle over the long term when buying individual stocks is so well known that it is odd we are even debating this. No one should be investing in the stock market without being aware of this. As for Buffett not buying indexes, you seem to miss the point. You buy indexes because you are not Buffett - no one here has his track record no matter how much we congratulate ourselves because of brief successes. By the way, here is Buffet's advice: Buffett is a master of value investing wherein patience, discipline, and risk aversion are the essential ingredients for success. But he acknowledges that individual stock picking is not for everybody. In fact, most average, long-term investors would benefit from a much simpler strategy, he says: investing in low-cost index funds. https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/warren-buffett-recommends-index-funds-for-most-investors I worry, knowing Nigerians' penchant for get-rich-quick schemes, that many will see the stock market as a route to riches, like the BetNaija trend, and invest in an aggressive style. We've already seen the chap from Trove attacked by an investor who lost money and it was interesting the comments he made about the investing style of many, I assume his clients. If we glamourise investing, most people here will suffer in a country where many are not financially buoyant. We have to acknowledge it is tough for retail investors and that the evidence supports this. My view is that novices should avoid stocks, many experts would even say all retail investors should avoid individual stocks but I recognise that you can become pretty good at investing with good education on it. Arguably, part of acquiring an education is by experience in buying stocks but if you go down this route, think of your investment fund as tuition fees and only do it with money you can afford to lose. PS: I have already mentioned in my earlier post what indexes an investor can buy. There are a lot more and I am a bit wary of people wanting to be spoonfed with names of what to buy. It's up to each interested person to investigate what index funds would be appropriate and what is available on the platforms they are using. 11 Likes 1 Share |
| Investment / Re: Us Stocks Pick Alert by 4Play(m): 9:54pm On Jun 19, 2020 |
Alaska90: You will find some ETFs that track the broad indices like QQQ for the NASDAQ-100 and SPY for S&P 500. There are also some that track particular sectors like XLF for banks and SMH for semiconductor companies. Newbies should start with indices whilst they read up on investing and as their investing capital and knowledge grow, they could consider the more risky bets on individual companies. If you think of the logic of it, buying an individual company is the equivalent of putting all eggs in one basket, even if you buy several such companies. In contrast, if you buy an index of 500 companies you have good diversification which is crucial for risk management even if you forgo the small probability of making a killing in individual stocks. This article highlights the problem though I don't share the bond buying view. Most stocks will cost you money. An even larger number make for lousy bets; instead of being rewarded for taking some risk, you’d likely be better off buying risk-free bonds. At least, that’s the case in the US, said University of Arizona finance professor Hendrik Bessembinder in 2017, following a groundbreaking study examining the performance of almost 26,000 US stocks over a 90-year period. https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/most-stocks-are-flops-just-1-of-stocks-account-for-all-market-gains-1.3973200?mode=amp So only buy individual stocks if you are well experienced and can afford to lose much of your capital! PS: In bear markets and again for those with money to burn and good investing experience, there are short ETFs you can buy if you are using one of those Naija apps like Chaka and Trove. Examples: Short S&P 500 (SH), Short Russell 2000 (RWM). 4 Likes 2 Shares |
| Investment / Re: Us Stocks Pick Alert by 4Play(m): 10:10pm On Jun 18, 2020 |
One key thing that hasn't been mentioned here for beginners, and arguably everyone, is that you are much better off buying an index like the S&P500 than trying to pick individual stocks. Yes, it's "boring" compared to imagining you are running a hedge fund or outsmarting Warren Buffett but if you want longevity (to thrive over decades) in this game, boring is the way to go. 3 Likes |
| Politics / Re: US Authorities Open Investigations Into Financial Crimes Of Buhari's Cabal by 4Play(m): 9:24pm On Jun 17, 2020 |
I wish this were true but unfortunately parts of the report seem made up. 2 Likes |
| Politics / Re: Atiku Shocked By Nigeria’s Debt Profile, Says Nation In Financial Crisis by 4Play(m): 4:20pm On Jun 16, 2020 |
nameo: What they ignore is that borrowing has to be sustainable. It's not a question of whether the country needs to borrow, but the scale of the borrowing weighed against the tax revenues needed to service the debt. When the oil price initially collapsed in the second half of 2014, Iweala started talking about the need to implement austerity (i.e., cut costs) and it was in that context that she made the (in)famous comment about borrowing to pay salaries. From the beginning, this government has taken the path of expansive fiscal spending as a way of stimulating the economy. But you cannot stimulate your way out of a currency crisis. The more you spend, the more you increase naira supply in the midst of a dollar shortage putting your currency under more pressure (too much naira chasing too few dollars). What it needed to do at the beginning was reduce the cost of government. Too few Nigerians (mainly politicians and govt workers) actually benefit from the government anyway. Fuel subsidy has to go too, ditto the currency regime that fixes the exchange rate to the dollar. To illustrate how something like the currency regime has been wasteful. The government's spending is mainly in naira so it would convert oil export dollars to naira. If it converts it at the then fixed rate of N197 to $1, the government was effectively shortchanging itself as the market exchange rate was over N300 whilst committing to borrowing the shortfall. So the government's expansive spending increased naira supply and facilitated naira depreciation but by using an artificially inflated exchange rate it had to borrow more than necessary to meet its spending commitments which worsened debt sustainability. The government hasn't given serious thought to economic reforms that would attract foreign nvestment like privatization (why are the Lagos ports run by government?) and deregulation (think of the downstream oil sector). The government's state-led interventionist model relies on government spending to do the heavy lifting of revitalizing the economy. It is this way of thinking that condemns Nigeria to a debt crisis. 1 Like |
| Politics / Re: Atiku Shocked By Nigeria’s Debt Profile, Says Nation In Financial Crisis by 4Play(m): 2:48pm On Jun 16, 2020 |
I remember doing a thread about this in 2017. At the time we spent 2/3rds of revenue on debt servicing and I noted how unsustainable it is. https://www.nairaland.com/3835219/fg-spends-two-thirds-tax-revenue The usual excuse is to point to our infrastructural deficits and how we need to borrow to address it. This is the mistake we made in the 1970s and early 80s and which led to a 2 decade slump in the economy. No matter how bad your infrastructure is, your debt load still needs to be sustainable. You can't keep increasing debt payments faster than your tax revenues are increasing without running into trouble. 1 Like 1 Share |
| Investment / Re: Us Stocks Pick Alert by 4Play(m): 2:40pm On Jun 16, 2020 |
Iamsoulomon: Companies also cut their dividends so dividend yields calculated on the basis of present dividends may create unwarranted expectations. 2 Likes |
| Investment / Re: Us Stocks Pick Alert by 4Play(m): 1:27am On Jun 16, 2020 |
ebuka1997: I think the Fed was crucial in stopping and reversing that initial plunge in March. But from here on, there has to be positive news flow re the pandemic and or the economy for the market to resume its upward climb otherwise we will just go sideways for the foreseeable future or resume the journey lower. All the talks of a second wave and disappointing economic data from China are not helping. 1 Like |
| Crime / Re: Names Of 15 Witches And Wizards Burnt In Cross River State (Graphics Photos) by 4Play(m): 12:11pm On Jun 12, 2020 |
That first picture is a poor photoshop. This is the downside to clinging on to traditional beliefs and views that facilitate evil. 2 Likes |
| Investment / Re: Us Stocks Pick Alert by 4Play(m): 1:21pm On Jun 09, 2020 |
DexterousOne: I know, the Feds actions can keep companies alive when they should have gone bust. Instead, you have zombie companies hoarding precious capital and market share as they continue to operate inefficiently and barely making money. A lot of the airlines come to mind as their long-term outlook remain dire. It think the dysfunction/inefficiencies are identifiable on a selective basis to specific zombie companies and assets, but in general, we shouldn't be too pessimistic about the long-term economic health of the global economy or the US stock market. 1 Like |
| Investment / Re: Us Stocks Pick Alert by 4Play(m): 12:23pm On Jun 09, 2020 |
DexterousOne: The broad market indices reflects the likelihood that the economy (both the US and global) will be in a much better place in 2 years time than it is today. The economy did not suffer an endogenous shock, i.e., where internal factors like excess credit growth causes the economy to topple over. The economy suffered because of the coronavirus and will recover once the virus is under control. Yes, there are companies with junk credit (there always are) but the Fed has bought relatively little junk credit and definitely no stocks. Investors are looking at the long-term picture and asking: What would earnings for Microsoft, Apple, JP Morgan etc look like in 2 or 3 years? They are buying stocks accordingly. 2 Likes |
| Investment / Re: Us Stocks Pick Alert by 4Play(m): 6:47am On Jun 09, 2020 |
DexterousOne: No, the stock market broadly is pricing in future economic fundamentals. The stock market doesn't wait for the economy to completely recover before rising. It rises in anticipation of economic recovery. There are some "mispricing" here and there as we have seen quite a huge influx of retail investors for a variety of reasons including US investors who due to lockdowns are dabbling in the stock market. But in general, I think the stock market is doing what it usually does - reflect the net present value of future earnings. 2 Likes |
| Politics / Re: Petrol Pump Price Reduced To N121.50 By FG by 4Play(m): 12:51pm On Jun 01, 2020 |
These reductions are paid for through corruption, waste and smuggling. The corrupt leaders have a strong incentive to fix the price of fuel at a level lower than the market price and our neighbours (Benin, Niger and Cameroon) price as it's through the subsidy that they pilfer funds. If the government wanted to help the masses, they could have kept free healthcare and free education which were introduced (at least in parts of Nigeria) way before fuel subsidy was introduced in the 1970s. It is because this fuel price setting by the government is a lucrative avenue for government officials to steal that it has survived for so long. |
| Politics / Re: Gov. Ugwuanyi Directs Fixing Of Potholes, Traffic Lights, Asphalting (Pic) by 4Play(m): 7:12am On Jun 01, 2020 |
DuBLINGreenb: He hasn't actually done anything other than direct the fixing of potholes. So it's a celebration of his expressed intention to fix roads, not the actual fixing of roads. Lacking achievements, Nigerian leaders now propagandise on the basis of their wish to achieve. 4 Likes |
| Politics / Re: Am Disappointed In Health Workers For Demanding Increment In Salary- Ogun Gov. by 4Play(m): 8:07am On May 31, 2020 |
Just when the main source of revenue - oil - has collapsed, the economy is going into a recession and the country is in the middle of a public health crisis, public sector workers demand increases in wages. People will use the corruption excuse - that politicians are corrupt- to justify unsustainable increases in wages. The reality is that state governments in the coming months will struggle to pay current wages, never mind accommodate an increase. |
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