₦airaland Forum

Such a waste of money. Elite politicians are obsessed with airports as this their favourite means of travel. But most Nigerian airports are not viable apart from a handful like Lagos, Abuja, Port Harcourt and perhaps Enugu https://guardian.ng/news/nigerian-airports-record-n44-billion-loss-in-3-years/

That money should have been invested in roads, healthcare and schools.

babytoun:
since the 2008/09 crash i have not gone near stocks ..
imagine someone that spent much of his savings on stocks like JAPAUL, Transacorp, Oceanic Bank, Intercontinental Bank, CI leasing (i still remember i bought this one for 17 naira in 2008 the whole estacode wey my office give me for a 3 weeks work outside 9ja) . i remember when someone said IGI was doing private placement and if we bought , we would gain at least 100% when they get listed publicly...... na so i carry money put ...up till today i no know wetin happen to the IGI.....

when snake bite person e go fear even millipede...... however our people say when woman pikin drown for river ...after crying na water she go still use wash her face ...that is why i am trying to give it a try again ...from a better informed position with money i can afford to lose

so now i am learning how to still do well even when the markets are down ...my purchases were purely based on rumours and pressure from stockbrokers..... i plan to take full responsibility this time with some help from pros here

I made some catastrophic mistakes in my early days. Started seriously trading in 2009, though I remember when I convinced my parents to buy Firstbank shares in 2007 which were selling at N22 I think! The big mistakes are trying to make money too quickly and not having a well-drilled "system" for taking a position.

Regarding being in a rush to make a killing, Buffett made a salient point that it's better to start down the slow and steady path as you can reap faster rewards in the long run (this is due to compound growth).

"Getting rich slow isn't actually slower," he said. "It's slower in year one, but it might be faster in year seven."

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-airbnb-brian-chesky-get-rich-slow-ipo-filing-2020-8-1029520058

I have been recommending to the "youngsters" here that beginners should have a preference for indexes but they don't want to hear There is a saying that stocks take the stairs when going up and the elevator when going down. Imagine watching your portfolio quadruple in a year and then see it halve in a few weeks of mad selling.

I have boiled down my rules to looking for good fundamentals: strong revenue and EPS growth, free cash flow, operating income, lowish price to earnings ratio (not significantly more than 30), etc. This website is quite good for checking these things: https://stockanalysis.com/

And then for technical analysis, I look for things like break outs from a trading range, the overall trend, and distance to the 200 daily simple moving average (SMA). If a stock is more than 20% above its 200 SMA, I am very reluctant to buy.

I deviate from the above rules for pure momentum trades like with Tesla, Workhorse or Plug. With this type, my position is 1/4 the normal size.

By the above rules, a lot of the popular stocks are currently overvalued so I have been reducing positions but still hold the following: Skyworks (SWKS), Rent-a-Centre (RCII), Biograd (BIO), Kirkland Gold (KL), Lam Research (LRCX), Revolve Group (RVLV) and a few others.

So as you can all see, despite my incessant admonitions to all and sundry that playing indexes is better in the long run than individual stocks, I can't resist the temptation to buy stocks

But in all seriousness, you should put most of your capital into indexes and start to move them gradually to stocks if you find you are consistently doing well in stocks in both bull and bear markets. This should be after at least 5 years!

Corruption is a significant part of the problem but not as much as the suite of inept policies that the country pursues.

Sometimes those policies exist because they facilitate corruption like multiple currency exchange rates that allow insiders to round trip, fuel subsidies that allow govt officials and fuel importers to corner subsidy payments, state run refineries and ports that aid theft through NNPC etc.

But a lot of other policies are ostensibly "well meaning" but actually counterproductive like increases in public sector wages at rates that outstrip the economic growth rate resulting in tax revenues that barely cover salaries, regulation of electricity and fuel prices which disincentives investment as companies need flexibility in pricing, incessant import bans which reduce consumer demand, proliferation of loss-making airports which put further strain on government finances, etc.

The country's economy is puny given the population and unless there is a radical overhaul of policies, in addition to tackling corruption, living standards will keep getting worse whilst we focus on lobbing scurrilous, often ethnicity/religion motivated, accusations at political leaders instead of addressing the policy deficiencies that exist.

This is why I am wary of the vague talk of restructuring as it often reflects a desire to retire to our ethno/regional sanctuaries where we think dynamism will magically reappear. People's lives won't be better unless Nigeria as a whole witnesses a sea change in the quality of governance.

ptoall1000:
So if one has dollars now is it advisable to sell it?

Hold on to your dollar as the only sustainable way for naira to appreciate is for more forex inflows from increases in oil revenues, remittances, foreign investment, sizeable IMF emergency loans, etc.

As a substantial increase in forex inflows is not forthcoming, the CBN's diktats won't change anything in the long run.

magicminister:
STOP MESSING WITH WHITE PEOPLE!!!!
IF YOU WERE AMONG YOUR BLACK BROTHERS AND SISTERS, THIS WOULD HAVE NEVER HAPPENED!!!

I hope he is found alive and this is just one really bad hang over!


We all have to rally in support of this young man.
Please add him in your prayers and to Nigerians in Ukraine, please any one that knows something should say something!!

WE ALL HAVE TO LOOK AFTER ONE ANOTHER IN THIS WORLD THAT HATES US SO MUCH FOR OUR SKIN COLOUR!

So there are no disappearances in Nigeria? In Ukraine, white Ukrainians also go missing or get killed and it doesn't get resolved.

The problem is that countries like Ukraine and Nigeria have governments and societies that don't function properly. So it's a risk that comes with living in such dysfunctional places.

We just have to pressure on our government to put pressure on the Ukrainian government to look into this.

[quote author= post=93268006]Lol.. which Nigeria go still fire na.. [/quote]Corruption

remsonik:
Hmmmmm, yet the man is not a true servant of God here.

He generates tourism revenue for Israel through promoting pilgrimage to Israel.

Has anyone looked at MercadoLibre (MELI)? It's a strong e-commerce company in Argentina and one can think of it as the Amazon of Latin America.

It has already enjoyed strong price appreciation this year - 109% year to date - so pullback or consolidation is probable in the short run but it's a stock that seems to offer a lot of future growth.

MercadoLibre, Inc. operates online commerce platforms in Latin America. It operates MercadoLibre Marketplace, an automated online commerce platform that enables businesses and individuals to list merchandise and conduct sales and purchases online; and MercadoPago FinTech, a financial technology solution platform, which facilitates transactions on and off its marketplaces by providing a mechanism that allows its users to send and receive payments online, and allows merchants to process transactions via their Websites and mobile apps, as well as in their brick-and-mortar stores through QR and mobile points of sale.

https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/meli/

NaijaDonCast:
Atleast there a lot of traders there in Anambra making it big in business and so reduce the rate of jobless and hunger striked individuals

Who do those traders sell to? If everyone troops to Anambra to purchase things, it will make sense but that's not really the case. And why would Anambra have a third of the unemployment level of its next door neighbour Imo state? The people of Imo will just relocate to Anambra.

NBS stats are not really plausible when you think of it. Remember they also say that unemployment has barely increased in Nigeria since 2018 even with the coronavirus lockdown. Like everything government run in Nigeria, it's an incompetent organisation.

PS: 1 advantage Anambra has is that its diaspora (within and outside Nigeria) remit money back home keeping things like building/construction going. But that's not enough to make its unemployment rate significantly lower than other states in southern Nigeria.

NaijaDonCast:
I live all my life in Akwa Ibom apart from when I went for service, I want to tell you NBS are 80% correct in some Local government like they one I'm currently in the only major means of survival is bricklaying work, followed by Bet9ja employees and underpayed secondary school teaching job of about 7 to 15k salary every month, while the major rich guys are politics inclined personnel parading all over Uyo with different tinted Toyota spider

You write this as if people are gainfully employed in the rest of Nigeria. If you lived in Oyo, Anambra, Nasarawa, Benue, etc, you will also see the same phenomenon.

NBS stats are rubbish because they show inexplicable variance between states that should have similar unemployment rates. If Anambra truly had the lowest unemployment rate (13% I think) in Nigeria as NBS claims, people will start migrating to Anambra.

I understand that many people are paid to post pro-government propaganda but if things are going well for Nigerians, there would be no need for all the propaganda.

99% of Nigerians don't use these airports and operating most cost Nigeria more money than they bring in:

States governments and regional groups are mounting pressure on Federal Government and aviation agencies to reopen airports nationwide, more for political than economic considerations. This comes as the country’s Airports Authority recorded a three-year deficit of N44.39 billion, representing losses incurred in 17 airports nationwide.

Factsheet obtained by The Guardian showed that, except for the trio of Murtala Muhammed International Airport (MMIA), Lagos, Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport (NAIA), Abuja, and Port Harcourt International Airport (PHIA), Omagwa, Rivers State, no other had sufficient revenue to cover operation costs bet

https://m.guardian.ng/news/nigerian-airports-record-n44-billion-loss-in-3-years/

Most likely Enugu would be among the loss making airports if it was open.*

Nigerians are worse off than they were in 2014 and you have these moral degenerates trying to paint a picture of progress by posting pictures of loss making infrastructure that most won't use. If the overall policy environment sucks, no amount of infrastructure projects will improve lives.

*PS: According to the article I cited, Enugu was ahead of PHC and only behind Abuja and Lagos so it's one of only 4 viable airports:

Enugu will pick up because, at a time, it was behind Lagos and Abuja, even ahead of Port Harcourt International Airport.

seyisanya:
As unbelievable as it may sound, I have made four international travels in the past weeks and I can tell you that all the airlines I travelled with were in full capacity! Same as airports!!. In fact, I'm currently in a country and touristic places are filled to unimaginable capacity. By the way, this is a country still recording daily rise in cases.

Although, I might count myself lucky because the few airline stocks that I have are already more than 60% up because I was able to buy them during March lows. However, I still feel the recovery process for the travel stocks will surprisingly be rapid.

You might fly in a plane, or to a tourist destination, that is at full capacity but US airlines in general have grounded a lot of their planes for the foreseeable future. The problem is getting all their planes flying again, making profits whilst paying down the debts they have added in this period. It's one thing for an industry to get back on its feet, it's quote another for the industry's stock prices to get back to normal.

So again, airlines are good for short-term bounces but I would rather look for other less debt-laden and high-profit margin industries to play the long-term covid economic recovery.

seyisanya:
Perfect! Enough of this indirect talk down on short term wins. If you're an ETF investor, brilliant. If you only invest long-term, fantastic. No one needs to keep sounding like a broken record just to force their strategy down the throat of others.

By the way, I recently sold all my short term positions(at good gains) and move all my funds to long term positions in fundamentally-sound dividend paying stocks(similar set-up that I have adopted in my Nigerian stocks since March) because I just relocated and will be very busy in the coming months.

The fact that I am now 100% long term investor does not imply that I have the best strategy. I still respect and learn from other type of investors. Kudos to bosses like YerYer, OakPearl etc. We are not in any form of competition when it comes to investment, and no one should directly/indirectly make it seem so. Do what works for you and let others do theirs in peace.

Dude, you are emotionally projecting and no one is competing with you. If you only want to read what you agree with, consider logging off the net.

I too do frequent short-term trades but having been trading since 2006, and following the market since the late 90s, I know that long-term investments tend to yield the best returns. Where are the Nigerians on the Forbes list who made their wealth trading stocks?

Here is a thought experiment: get a list of S&P500 stocks close your eyes and blindly select a stock. If you do it 10 times, you will notice that most if not all your selections have gone up since March. This doesn't mean that blindly selecting stocks is a winning strategy but that we just happen to be in a period where many stocks have gone up.

It's one thing making money over a few months/years, doing it over the long-run is another thing altogether and I doubt that anyone here has made a significant amount in short-term trades over a decade or more. There might be one or two exceptions but it's quite rare.

Pointing this out isn't advocating "my strategy" - that's nonsense. It's just highlighting an obvious reality that comes with stocks otherwise many would have given up their jobs to simply live off scalping quick profits off stocks.

People read our posts and are influenced by it. One of my first posts on this thread was a reply to a lady who later went on to buy Chesapeake and start #boycotttrove because she lost money! My message to investors/traders: be wary of thinking short-term trades are sustainable in the long run and consider indexes if you can't afford to lose money.

mXz6:
@4Play @Oakpearl Would $JETS be a good buy for the long term?

I tend to stay clear of the airlines as even when we start flying, they need a return to full capacity to generate decent profits as the airline business is a low profit margin business in the best of times. Airlines have also piled on more debt during this crisis which needs to be paid off. They have had, and may still have again, a short-term relief rally for just surviving but it's a troubled sector.

I would rather buy the KBW for a play on banks' long term recovery. I think they are well capitalised and may have over-provisioned for loan losses that won't materialise.

PS: No opinion on this but I have been looking for an ETF on apparel stocks as people will need to go back to clothes shopping. If you find a good one, let me know!

So Imo which is a short drive away from Anambra has more than 3 times the unemployment level in Anambra, surely that will mean that the unemployed in Imo will migrate to Anambra reducing the disparity in unemployment levels.

Remember also that, according to the NBS, the residents of Ebonyi, and indeed the North, are significantly poorer than Imo residents but at the same time are far more likely to be in employment than Imo residents. So an unemployed population (Imo) has less poverty than an employed population (Ebonyi).

NBS stats tend to confound logic, people have actually been paid a lot of money to compile this data!

OvaSabi1:
Exactly. It's not discouragement, it's reality. There are some days your losses will exceed your gains. There are some years that you will make nothing. This is even for investors who are supposed to have it better. Day traders experience more losses and their eyes dey see pepper. But when they strike gold, their harvests are bountiful.

The best thing to invest in is yourself. Find different hustles and multiple streams of income and then contribute into stocks with strong fundamentals. That is what the rich do. They're off playing golf somewhere and only look at their portfolio like twice a day. That was how they started because it is a habit you need to have early.

I have attached a screenshot showing the average returns of the S&P 500 over more than 1 decade. There are some years that your returns are negative. Few people have been able to outperform the s&p 500. The s&p 500 are 500 of the largest companies in the U.S.



Cc Ehuatamuigunisi

As YerYer pointed out, in this up trending market, most people should be able to make money. There are a couple of problems - one specific to traders here and a more general issue.

Many here seem to trade the extremely volatile stocks promoted by the Naija fintech apps. I suspect those trading these stocks experience more frequent losses than would be the case if you're trading higher quality, but less volatile, stocks.

The second more general, and most important, problem is the long run return on stock investments by retail investors is poor relative to the broad index (e.g S&P 500) returns. This is why I have suggested indexes! In an up trending market, most of us are "gurus". But since we're all, I presume, relatively young and hope to successfully invest for decades, we need to invest (form good investment habits) in a way that will allow us thrive over 10/20/30 years. This is where I fear these overly rose-tinted posts about short-term wins can damage investors' ability to last the distance. People will increasingly be lured into putting their savings into this 5g or EV stock or the other high-tech name and find themselves trapped without warning. It may take months or years but it will eventually happen when we least expect it.

According to its Labour Force Statistics report released on Monday, the number of unemployed Nigerians went from 20.93 in 2018 to 21.76 million in the second quarter of 2020.

So since 2018, the number of unemployed people has only increased by fewer than 1 million. This is obviously false, particularly against the backdrop of the covid-19 induced recession, and points to a continuing trend of the NBS massaging statistics to look more palatable.

YerYer:
This forum is great. Whoever recommended Plug Power (PLUG) I thank you o. I now work mostly during the day so I'm unable to watch my usual CNBC to get ideas. I bought PLUG on Friday as its been recommended here on this thread and I'm up $1260.

I mentioned PLUG on July 10 and noted that nobody seemed to have brought it up. I did also mention DKNG in the same post which has been dogshit To be fair, DKNG popped up after my post and I made a bit from it. I have never bought PLUG though.

Some other short-term plays not mentioned here, pardon me if I have missed it, are Draftking (DKNG) and Plugpower (PLUG). The latter is a lot more risky as it's run quite a bit but it's worth having a look for those who can afford to take the risk.

Has anyone looked at Rent a Centre (RCII)? It's not one of those highfliers but it seems like a decent long-term hold in our austere economic times - it's a company that rents out goods which is great for the cost-conscious. Low PE and high dividend yields are also noteworthy.

Then Kirkland Gold also. Everyone seems to have missed the action on precious metals.

Skymoore1004:
It’s funny bc not all companies made loss but they’re tanking. I’m surprised at $DDOG

A lot of these companies have risen so much because investors had sky-high expectations. So even if the company is beating analysts' (not investors) expectations, the stock will still fall because the share price already reflected extremely high expectations.

Many of these tech names are priced to perfection and need to keep producing extraordinary earnings numbers to sustain their rise.

I think this debate misses a salient point: Igbos are the Igbo speaking ethnic groups located in the geographical Southeast of Nigeria. Same goes for many ethnic groups including Yoruba.

The idea of referring to one's self as Igbo is a relatively modern phenomenon. 100 or 200 years ago, a person from Awka would state that they are from Awka and won't necessarily describe themselves as Igbo. The idea of a common ethnic identity was a byproduct of the formation of the Nigerian state. People who shared a common language unified to better compete, as they saw it, in the face of burgeoning ethnicity driven rivalries. So whether a person/ group recognises that they are Igbo, it's somewhat neither here nor there as the nomenclatural designation of Igbo is more a linguistic marker than a biological fact.

pocohantas:
He most likely started in Nigeria, but since they will ask what she went to do in his house- he carried it and enter plane.

He should find one redpill lawyer. I am sure they can prove beyond reasonable doubt, that it is romance gone bad.

If we channel the energy we spend in Nigeria insulting women who have the temerity to allege rape to inculcating a sense of restraint and the importance of consent in sexual matters, it will go a long way in curtailing sexual violence.

lecturer50:
There is something I need to ask ladies here.

A woman told me that if a male/her boyfriend ask her "Let us have sex", she will be very angry and will leave him.

But if in the process of being together, a man starts removing her cloths even when she refuses, and then sleep with her,

she will love the man more afterwards.

She said women hate to say the word "Yes" whenever a man demands sex.

She said that no woman can ever give her CONSENT if she truly wants to enjoy the sex.

As in, a woman can only enjoy sex if it happens without her CONSENT.

If she says "Yes", it is because she wants something from you like money, job etc in exchange for the sex

But she would not enjoy it.

But for her to enjoy sex, it must be without her consent.

Why then do women shout rape whenever a man sleeps with them without their verbal "CONSENT"?

Please women I need a clarification on this.

I am so confused.

You ask her for sex, she will not like it , but want you to take her without her consent.

You take her without her consent, she says you have raped her.

You sure this "woman" you talked to is not Bobrisky or perhaps a figment of your imagination?

Nobody has quite worked out that this is a parody twitter account. Guys here are too busy indulging in fake male victimhood, always looking for evidence that women are going around falsely accusing men.

nna777:
That's one of the challenge with day trading or what we call jijo here in naija(very short term play). Most persons here are into the above.

So some are either trapped or in observation mode.

As one can't really time the market, sometimes buying a dip will result in you buying a resistance (exit point) instead of a support(entry point)(Tesla comes to mind).

Even with good results sometimes market plays its own games. Price entry, a whole dose of patience and exit is key if you will succeed both as a trader and an investor.

That is why having basic TA knowledge is very critical especially in a complex market like the US. Combined with the fact that you're trading in a foreign currency. Any loss is much more painful.

In my own opinion,with all that is going on in the US now, observation mode should be activated until the dust settles (apart from the healthcare stocks).

To enjoy long-term success, short-term traders need excellent knowledge of technical analysis and or a knack for pattern recognition.

In a sense, technicals drive the market in the short-term (absent major news event) and fundamentals in the long run. For example, Microsoft's share price growth over a 5 year time frame depends to a large extent on its earnings growth. Its share price move over a week or two is largely dependent on technical analysis (unless a major news event occurs).

Once a major news event occurs (earnings release, regulatory action, covid outbreak etc), the share price move in the short-term is still largely about technicals.

By technicals, you are basically looking at: trends (up or down), key support/resistance levels, popular moving averages (200 & 50 SMA), candlestick pattern, etc.

Jayjaycee18:
Way to go. I'm pulling the trigger anywhere between $1,700 and $1,800, depending on market reaction to its 2Q2020 earnings report. I'm certainly not waiting for it to get to $2,000. Tesla is highly volatile and one can always buy lower at price dips.

Tesla might do a whipsaw. Many seem to expect a linear rise to $2000 but there was a lot of selling when it spiked to $1800 intraday.

Abuse of power by the police. The twitter profile is clearly not GEJ's as he makes it explicit that it's not him. Had he not done so and used it to solicit for business, then there would be a case to answer.

sonnie10:
Why are Airlines stocks going up ? Nothing has really changed in terms of travel restrictions and the pandemic.

I think Moderna's positive vaccine trials is boosting so called cyclical stocks: airlines, cruiselines, hotels, cinemas, apparel, etc.

These stocks have suffered immensely due to the pandemic so any suggestion of progress on the vaccine front boosts them.

As most rapes occur in private settings with no eyewitnesses, it's inevitable that there are incidents of false accusations. But the reality is that false accusations are relatively few compared to the true incidents of rape (most of which is unreported).

This obsession with the idea that women are going around falsely alleging rape and that this should be given as equal an emphasis as we give to tackling rape reflects a culture of denial that you get in a society where sexual violence is rampant.

Although it's very difficult to ascertain, there have been many recent studies of false rape accusations which suggest false accusations constitute up to 10% at most of reported rapes, some suggest as low as 1-2%. Admittedly, these studies are in the west but there is no reason to believe Nigerian women are more inclined to lie about rape given a cultural context where the menfolk are more interested in accusing every female alleged rape victim of being a liar.

We were screaming in July 2015 when total debt was N12 trillion not knowing we will almost triple the figure in 5 years:

LAGOS — Nigeria’s total internal and external debt stock stood at N12.06 trillion or $63.5 billion as at the end of March this year, up from N11.2 trillion or $67.726 billion in December 2014 according to figure released by the Debt Management Office (DMO) yesterday.

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/07/n12trn-debt-profile-worsens-nigerias-woes/

OakPearl:
Your village people try for you na.

What of me wey village people push to offload my Tesla at $813 on May 20th
That's a whopping $700/share forfeited as of today's price of $1,500+!
I dey laugh but no be laughing matter oh.

But seriously, no one can time the market. That's the way it is.
We move.

2 of the biggest regrets are when you sell too early and when you're waiting for a "pullback" to buy and the pullback never happens as you watch the stock accelerate higher.

I had been watching Tesla in 2019 - following the debate on it when the stock price was going sideways for months. I remember coming back from Nigeria and seeing, in early December 2019, the breakout from consolidation I had been waiting for as it hit $400 but I decided to wait for a pull back. The bloody stock didn't look back and was close to $900 by February 2020 before covid-19 knocked it down giving me another buying opportunity which, of course, I didn't take! Considering I was in my village last year, this is definitely the fault of my village people. The lesson here is that if you're convinced a stock is moving higher, don't wait for the ideal entry.

The main fear is buying Tesla and seeing it collapse as it's priced for perfection. But it's still definitely something short-term traders can buy for a run up toward $2k.

Some other short-term plays not mentioned here, pardon me if I have missed it, are Draftking (DKNG) and Plugpower (PLUG). The latter is a lot more risky as it's run quite a bit but it's worth having a look for those who can afford to take the risk.

OakPearl:
Today's leading companies were totally under the radar a couple of years ago. Just for example, today's Tesla of $1,208 was trading for just $211 last August; that's less than a year ago!

We are here to conduct due diligence meticulously enough to hopefully pick tomorrow's giants and sit back for a bumper pay.

The problem is very few people, not even professional investors, have a chance of knowing beforehand what stocks will prove to be a success. There is a lot of hindsight bias¹ amongst investors - we look at a stock that exploded and conclude that we ''shoulda woulda coulda'' bought the stock and held on till we reaped loadsa money and that we will find the next bonanza stock(s). The reality is most stocks are duds over the long run so your chances of finding that great stock and holding on to it, as it rises and falls, are fairly slim.

And it's not even about buying a growth industry stock like Tesla and NKLA with electric vehicles or Beyond Meat with artificial meat. An industry can be a success but most of the individual stocks within that industry can be widow makers. Think of the tech bubble that started in the 1990s and remember names like Blackberry, Motorola, Nokia, Yahoo.com, Palm (of Palm Pilot fame) etc. These companies operated in industries that were eventual successes but the stocks, like most stocks, proved disappointing.

So, once again, my message is investors shouldn't overestimate their stock picking skills or fall foul of overconfidence bias.² Obviously, in this environment where stocks are generally on the rise, most people might start letting their guards down. My stance remains that most people are safer just choosing indices. If you feel you are skilled enough to pick the right stocks, be prepared to lose or to experience average/mediocre returns over the long-run (over the course of years). Yes, there are anecdotes about investors/traders experiencing stunning successes but, like a lot of things in life, those are the exceptional cases and not the norm. Preaching moderation/caution to people on this thread might feel like preaching chastity to punters in a brothel but someone has to do it!

1.

Hindsight bias is a psychological phenomenon that allows people to convince themselves after an event that they had accurately predicted it before it happened. This can lead people to conclude that they can accurately predict other events. Hindsight bias is studied in behavioral economics because it is a common failing of individual investors.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hindsight-bias.asp

2.

Overconfidence Bias in Finance and Investing
Understanding where the markets are going and so on is one of the most important skills in finance and investing. In this industry, most market analysts consider themselves to be above average in their analytical skills. However, it is obviously a statistical impossibility for most analysts to be above the average analyst.

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/overconfidence-bias/