4Play's Posts
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You know crime spreads like a virus geographically. If you don't contain kidnapping, it will spread to to proximate areas until it envelops the whole country. |
Philip Hollobone, MP for Kettering, was accused by Muslim groups of "failing in his duty" as MP.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7895995/Conservative-MP-Philip-Hollobone-refuse-to-meet-with-constituents-wearing-a-veil.html As abhorrent as the burka is, I think it's an infringement of basic human rights to tell people not to wear certain items of clothing which do not cause harm to others. |
Ibime:Paddy Lo ignores inflation, or seems to think that it's only a function of exchange rates, and the effect of the banking crises on velocity. |
In case anyone is befuddled by this debate, let me try and explain it as succinctly as possible in the way I understand the question of money supply. Under the Quantity Theory of Money, Money Supply (M) multiplied by the number of times money changes hands (Velocity) is equals to Price/Inflation (P) multiplied by the Quantity of output (T) MV = PT If the money supply is 1 trillion Naira and velocity is 5, then MV is equals to 5 trillion Naira. It follows that if output is 1 billion products then average price is 5000 Naira, therefore, PT = 5 trillion Naira. From the above, if the average price increased 20% to 6000 Naira or output quantity increased to 1.2 billion, that will make PT = 6 trillion Naira. In this case, MV will have to increase to 6 trillion Naira by, for instance, the money supply (M) increasing to 1.2 trillion Naira. The problem is that Paddy Lo claims that an increase in M is proof of an increase in T! He is engaging in a circular reasoning. In reality, an increase in M can be a result of an increase in P (inflation), which I think is the case in Nigeria, as V & T(changes in velocity and output) tend to be relatively constant as monetarists insist. If you don’t accept that V & T are constant, that introduces an additional element of uncertainty as changes in M can be a result of changes in V, T or P. Either way, you can’t assume the contentious issue, change in GDP, as a premise in your proof . Effectively, Paddy LO is making the absurdly circular argument : “ Nigeria’s GDP growth is strong (proposition to be proved). The fact that Nigeria’s GDP growth is strong (unproven proposition converted to premise) can be seen in strong M2 growth”. Yes, growth in money supply may be evidence of GDP growth but it’s not proof of GDP growth. In reality, as velocity and output tend to be constant, money supply tells us far more about inflation/deflation pressures in an economy than anything else. If money supply, going by the cited CBN figures, increased 22%, that could simply mean that inflation increased 18% and GDP growth was 4%. We don’t really know as the Govt official inflation rate of 11% is questionable. In addition, the banking crises and its attendant effect on credit can reduce velocity which will require the CBN to pump more money into the system thereby increasing money supply. Only a fool fails to exercise caution in accepting Govt stats. |
Ibime:It could be that I'm not making myself clear or that you have a problem with comprehension, I think it's the latter. To restate the money supply argument in its simplest form: Paddy Lo: Growth in M2, given stable exchange rate, indicates steady GDP growth 4 Play: Growth in M2 does not indicate steady GDP growth as alternative causes, particularly inflation, can explain M2 growth. In general, I don't think any right thinking person should believe the growth figures coming out of Nigeria, particularly over the last 2 years. We have an inflation problem, in the past 2 years we have defended the Naira from plummeting against the USD by depleting our foreign reserves from $60bn to $40bn. The country is facing serious economic headwinds, yet we are being told that we are having 7.2% growth and some muppets, in the name of patriotism, lap it all up. Beaf:Apparently, the unemployment rate is just 19% and inflation is 11%! Nigerian GDP growth, which I think is less than the official figures, doesn't affect the common man much as Nigeria has huge structural inequalities that mean that a disproportionate amount of income is 'captured' by a small segment of society. Income inequality is a worldwide problem but it's more acute in Nigeria. |
chamber2:I agree with you. I'm directing my comments at people who don't take these stats with a pinch of salt. |
Anyone up for an aid mission to the Kurdish regions? Where is the outrage, wouldn't have anything to do with Turks not being Jews, would it? |
chamber2:The reality is that Nigerian statistics are very dodgy and so swallowing Govt agencies stats is unwise. In the developed world, it's actually very difficult getting credible GDP numbers and we often have to wait for revisions to announced GDP figures years later. For instance, the US announced that Q3 '09 GDP growth was 3.5% only to reduce it to 3.0% and then 2.5% . Q1 '10 GDP was announced at 3.0% and has been subsequently reduced to 2.7% for now. If you therefore think that Nigeria's stats are credible, then you must be an ignoramus. |
[quote author=paddy_lo link=topic=480001.msg6399653#msg6399653 date=1279336647]Dude i plotted all those countries in my IMF Economic statistics/data page And it still shows a very high degree of co-rellation btw the countries with the highest M2 growth and those with high GDP growth. . .matter of fact the countries with the poorest growth rates were those with the lowest M2 growth(according to your chart)Switzerland, japan,USA,canada and UK while those with the highest were Azerbaijan,Belarus,Bolivia,Nigeria,Lebanon,zambia. . .and so on. . . of course china is an outlier,but the correlation is clear for all to see. . .click IMF link below [url]http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?[/quote]Nonsense. It fails to show M2 growth proves GDP growth. My M2 chart was for the period from October '08 to October '09. Let's look at the 2009 GDP growth from your figures: Nigeria's M2 growth was double that of China and India, both of whom had faster 2009 GDP growth than Nigeria. Amongst the countries with +40% M2 growth: Brazil(-0.18%),UAE(-0.67%),Libya(1.75%) and Belarus(0.2%) all showed less than robust GDP growth as the bracketed figures show. Can anyone but an oaf now validly claim that robust M2 growth is proof of robust GDP growth in Nigeria? |
According to Paddy Lo, from this chart, Nigeria is in better economic shape than China
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This Paddy Lo is clearly stupid. You found a link that states that M2 is leading indicator and that proves what exactly?There are many leading indicators. The stock market is a leading indicator. NSE is still below way '08 levels, does that mean that, in contradiction to your M2 figures, that Nigeria's GDP has shrunk since '08? |
[quote author=paddy_lo link=topic=480001.msg6399566#msg6399566 date=1279332550]The story u fail to tell is that it also appreciated from N138 to get to that N110 in a period of huge growth in credit supply to the private sector during soludos time In essence what matters is the stability of the naira,and it has been stable albeit within a band of N150 - N120 for 10yrs. . . http://www.cenbank.org/rates/exrate.asp?year=2004[/quote]Compared to 2008, the money supply must have barely moved. Therefore, using your twisted logic, Nigeria's GDP has barely grown since '08. From the BBC. . .The fact that u keep on mentioning Nigeria in the same breath as zimbabwe(laughable) shows u have no credibility and are grasping for strawsIt's because you're boneheaded that you can't see that growth in money supply, as acutely illustrated by Zimbabwe, is more indicative of inflationary pressures than the silly claim that it's proof of GDP growth. |
[quote author=paddy_lo link=topic=480001.msg6399555#msg6399555 date=1279332030]Measure of value of money supply. . .U cant keep mentioning Zimbabwe without u also realizing/mentioning that the zimbabwe dollar is depreciating rapidly. . . .(Hyper inflation) causing the need to print more money. . .is that too hard to comprehend? If the zimbabwe economy has total M3 at $10billion zim dollars in 2009 while the exchange rate is ZD1000 - $1 and then expands M3 to $100billion zim dollars but then the exchange rate has jumped to ZD100,000 - $1 In essence money supply has actually contracted in dollar terms. . .and u cant expect GDP growth Thats why zimbabwe has been in recession for 10yrs,and only got out of it when it adopted the US dollar as its local currency[/quote]We're going round and round in circles because you are a simpleton. Let me repeat myself. Money supply is a good indicator of inflation/deflation pressures. For instance, countries with inflation in double digits, like Nigeria, will have an expansion in money supply because more Naira is chasing fewer goods in relative terms. You cannot, in an exhibition of your startling idiocy, proclaim that growth in Nigeria's money supply is proof of the level of Nigeria's GDP growth. It could simply be proof of our long running inflation problem. Please spare us your charlatanism. |
[quote author=paddy_lo link=topic=480001.msg6399538#msg6399538 date=1279331138]Nice try but money supply in Zimbabwe measured in dollars has not grown at all since the local currency has also depreciated faster than they can print money. . . . [/quote]More moronic by the minute. So the true measure of money supply is by comparison with the USD? I believe a couple of years ago, the USD exchanged for 110 Naira, now it's 150 Naira. Adjusted for this, your rapid expansion in M2 doesn't look so robust. |
[quote author=paddy_lo link=topic=480001.msg6399527#msg6399527 date=1279330787]In essence what the article is telling u is that the fall in money supply is forcasting GDP contraction and recession in the coming months Thats why obama and bernanke are eyeing new rounds of Stimulus and quantitative easing in the future. . . Again M2 and M3(Broader money Supply) growth is a signal of healthy economic growth anybody that calls himself an economist that doesnt know that, must have gotten his degree from university of pyongyang North Korea ![]() [/quote]Again, that makes Zimbabwe and many other basketcases the fastest growing economies in the world over the past decade. |
[quote author=paddy_lo link=topic=480001.msg6399468#msg6399468 date=1279329058]U use M2 to estimate the size of an economy. . . .[/quote]This clearly shows you are a slowpoke. If you use M2 alone as a proxy for the economy's size, then US economy has expanded from Sept '08 to March '09. If you believe that, then you are even more daft than I think: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/h6.htm .and mugu how do u have GDP growth with deflation?GDP can grow with deflation but it is a harder slog. For instance, an export dependent economy can have growth in GDP even at the same time it is having deflation. Besides, despite your inability to comprehend, that the US is facing deflationary pressures does not mean that the US is in deflation. From your own quote it tells u that the fall in M3 has meant that the USA has not been recovering properlyThe point is that GDP growth can co-exist with contraction in the money supply just as a GDP slowdown or contraction can co-exist with a rapid expansion in the money supply(as in Nigeria's case). To,therefore, proclaim that Nigeria is growing because of your advised 22% expansion in M2 is ignorance in its purest form. The Prof is expressing fears because of the future potential, as can be gleaned from the M3 figures, for the US to fall into deflation given the pace of M3's contraction . It does not negate the fact that, contrary to your bovine assertion, that you can't easily estimate GDP growth from the money supply. [quote author=paddy_lo link=topic=480001.msg6399481#msg6399481 date=1279329488][color=#000099]can u please explain to us how u can have GDP growth and deflation at the same time?. . . . ![]() Deflationary pressures is a central bankers worst nightmare All asset prices go down. . .money supply shrinks,GDP shrinks It is what happened in the great depression In essence ben bernanke is printing money as fast as he can and throwing it into the economy to reflate it and grow GDP but that money is being liquidated almost as fast as he can create it. . . . Japan has just had a lost decade due to deflation. . 10yrs of no growth. . . . U must be an economic novice not to know that. . . . [/quote]Are you an id-iot by profession? I'm not making a case for the 'beauty' of deflation. I'm merely demonstrating that money supply figures are not a proxy for GDP growth. The fact that the US can experience GDP growth, 2.7% in 2010 Q1, at a time of the steepest contraction in M3 over 7 decades illustrates that your claim that the expansion in M2 is proof that Nigeria is growing is moronic. |
The US is experiencing contraction in its M3 because it is facing deflationary pressures as evidenced by today's inflation report. At same time, however, GDP has been growing. Zimbabwe, and Nigeria to a far lesser extent, have growth in money supply because they're facing inflationary pressures. To claim that money supply is a proxy for GDP growth is the work of a quintessential charlatan. By Paddy Lo's figures, a 22% growth in M2 in just one year is not necessarily something to be proud of. |
[quote author=paddy_lo link=topic=480001.msg6399390#msg6399390 date=1279326840][color=#000099]How do u think GDP is calculated/estimated with macro economic models? Listen Zimbabwe has inflation running at 5000% per annum Its exchange rate is almost 1million to 1 dollar Nigerias exchange rate has been stable for 10yrs while inflation is close to single digits[/quote]Olodo, money supply tells us more about inflation/deflation pressures and is not a proxy for GDP growth as you idiotically suggested. Nigeria having a growth in money supply is not necessarily evidence that the economy is growing. and yea the contraction in USA money supply and credit growth denotes the steep contraction in GDP we saw for 4 straight quarters up till 3q 2009slowpoke, M3(broader than M2) contracted at the fastest rate since the Great Depression from January '10 to April '10, a period which has seen GDP growth. If money supply is a proxy for economic growth, the period from January to April 2010 must have seen the steepest contraction since the Great Depression. The stock of money fell from $14.2 trillion to $13.9 trillion in the three months to April, amounting to an annual rate of contraction of 9.6pc. The assets of insitutional money market funds fell at a 37pc rate, the sharpest drop ever.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7769126/US-money-supply-plunges-at-1930s-pace-as-Obama-eyes-fresh-stimulus.html |
[quote author=paddy_lo link=topic=480001.msg6399344#msg6399344 date=1279324990]@4play [b]one more thing u have to understand is it is fairly easy to estimate GDP from money supply growth. . .and growth of Credit to the private sector with exchange rates being fairly stable,steady money supply growth will indicate to u that there is steady GDP growth From the CBN website M2(Broad money) was Approximately N11 trillion Naira as at march 2010 While at March 2009 it was at N9Trillion While Credit to the Private Sector grew from 8trillion to 10 trillion in the period(March 2009 - March 2010) Pls see CBN website below[/b] http://www.cenbank.org/rates/mnycredit.asp[/quote]Can you stop making a fool of yourself? If it was 'easy' to extrapolate from the growth in money supply, then Zimbabwe will be one of the fastest growing economies, if not the fastest, on the planet. Presumably, the US which has seen the steepest contraction in money supply since the 1930 over the past year has been experiencing a contraction in GDP over the same period. |
[quote author=paddy_lo link=topic=480001.msg6397927#msg6397927 date=1279305637]So if we are producing nearly 1million barrels of oil more(2million bpd plus 500,000 condensate) and oil prices are were on average $85 a barrel in 1q 2010 Versus $40 in 1st Qtr 2009 and 1.5millionbpd(oil and condensate). . .then that right there is a growth of close to 50% on oil GDP alone Now oil accounts for 18% of our GDP so saying every other sector was flat,from credit crunch( which i doubt)that still pushes GDP up close to 10%. . . .[/quote][quote author=paddy_lo link=topic=480001.msg6399323#msg6399323 date=1279324558][color=#000099]What are you yapping. . from the link u provide oil GDP grew at a total rate of 11.29% i.e from negative -8.08 to positive +3.21 thats a swing around of approx 11.29% [b]so even my rough estimates are correct[/quote]This man is a numpty. One minute, oil GDP growth(from the Paddy Lo Stats Bureau) grew a whopping 50% from Q1, the next, it's actually 3.21% growth from Q1 '09 to Q1 '10. Wasn't too difficult to actually check the stats instead of manufacturing figures from thin air. Now let's deal with the facts. From Q1 '09 to Q1 '10, non-oil GDP(81.3% of GDP) grew 8.15% whilst the 'oil GDP'(18.7% of GDP) grew 3.21%. That oil production is now growing compared to the contraction from Q1 '08 to Q1 '09 doesn't hide the fact that we are meant to believe that the non-oil sector has been experiencing robust growth. A 55% drop in imports is telling in so far as such a steep drop is usually indicative, unless due to some exceptional event(s), of a marked slowdown in economic activity. |
Lagos — The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Wednesday revealed that Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of this year grew by 7.23 percent with the Nominal GDP with non-oil sector being the major driver of growth.It seems Debo and Paddy Lo make up their own stats where oil, 18% of GDP, is the main driver of Q1 growth. Even our Govt ''statisticians'' won't stoop so low. http://allafrica.com/stories/201006250645.html The key question is, do you believe that Nigeria's non-oil sector grew that strongly? I would like to see how this is reflected in consumption figures. 55% drop in automobile imports is pretty indicative of a marked slowdown. http://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ext/latest_release/GDP_Q12010.pdf |
Clearly a case of deliberate provocation. |
I have always found a lot of our economic stats highly questionable. Even in the developed countries, measuring economic indicators is very difficult never mind Nigeria where there is an additional element of deception. |
THE proposed national minimum wage may develop hiccup in states, as they lack the resources to pay their workers.http://odili.net/news/source/2010/jul/15/601.html |
Has any of you realised that wage levels are partly determined by the employer's financial resources? |
What's the story here? As tragic as it is, these 'marital' murders happen a lot and there is no evidence that Nigerians are more likely to be involved in it. |
honeric01:Thanks, it was an error. Imagine if Govt workers were paid a minimum of 52000Naira per month. Converted to Naira , using Nigeria's oil revenue is probably less than $30bn. With a wage bill that large, only an id-iot would give this proposal any credibility. |
How much is the Federal Govt's revenue that people expect it to be paying |
snowdrops:They are not there to serve you. They might as well set up websites with a welcoming picture of an extended middle finger. |
@Paddy Lo Go to Google Archive and read articles about Nigeria from the 70s. Same story with Western fund managers extolling the growth potential of Nigeria. The reality is that Nigeria's potential has never been in doubt, we just have an uncanny ability to create chaos out of opportunity. |
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