₦airaland Forum

Agbalowomeri:
Sometimes hard to recover from some youthful mistakes especially money matters

Quite true. 2006-2008 years were painfully rewarding experiences some have applied to the present. Once bitten twice thrice shy. Greed is a monster. Tame it or it ruins. Always take profits. This is not a game.

owolabi5:
Please sir, what is the COMMON SENSE ENTRY POINT for PRESTIGE ASSURANCE?

Thanks baba

For Prestige, I am waiting for 0.48 sir. The price should drop further because the company needs to meet its free float requirement.

Profit Target = 6k x4 x 4 = 96k

So if entry is about 0.48, one could see a 100% gain especially if able to pay at least 5k dividend this year.


You still have to do your due diligence though.

yMcy56:
Pardon my ignorance o.
...buy the new shares have not been added to the existing one....
Is the EPS not yet on the old OS?

If it were, wouldn’t it be a worse off situation?

@yak follow up on my last suggestion…
Eterna's support based on my analysis of her volume-price dissociation is approximately 21.00. Will definitely do well based on last quarter's print. I will be picking up more should it dip to this price. If not confident sell off about half your holding when it strikes your 28. There may be a slight resistance there before it resumes the climb.

Omooloriredade:
Just in case someone sees Q1 EPS of N10 for a stock selling for N40 and was wondering:

Since that result was released. There has been a significant change that anyone looking to buy should consider.

There was a stock split (x5). So the N10 EPS in Q1 is more like N2.

As at Q2, EPS was N2.45k.

Disclaimer - Not a buy or sell recommendation.

Well observed.

EPS needs to double to make common sense at the current price.

STOjo:
"In a bull market, everybody is a Pro." Hope you have a good margin of safety?.
Ask those who have gone through that route before, They will tell you nothing is sure.
Please diversify your portfolio. Mix your greed with a little portion of fear and you will succeed. Over confidence kills.
I remember Obabo**jo (with due respect to him).

Thank you sir,

All at stake here is N1,000,000 . That’s the risk. I will not put a dime extra but just keep rolling the funds from each bus stop over to the next stock. Please don’t copy this strategy with your life savings. But, why not a little fun investing for those that this would amount to less than a 1% of their total portfolio. You can equally scale down to a level that doesn’t pinch e.g N100k to 8 step of 1.28mil. Or even 10k to it’s 8 step of 128k .

What it could kill sir, is the initial investment ne c’est pas ? All your other investments will of course continue to run.

emmanuelewumi:
100% return on a consistent basis for 8 year?

You go wound, not when the portfolio gets to N5 million and above, then the liquidity of the stock bought

Nope sir, not same stock all the way to 128 sir., rollover stock to stock. Cash out at each bus stop and eye the next entry. The only challenge I have had in the past with this is that once it’s over 50mil, you may need to split into a couple with equal potential. Will always cash out sir. Same principle you have taught here over the years just with some adjustments…..instead of waiting years, I just hit and move to another stock…..honestly sometimes you could cover 3 moves in a year.

#128: 0-8
I am going to try
8 consecutive picks with a prospect of 100% to be rolled over as below. Could last 3- 7 years or even less. It’s all about the power of compounding.


I will start at step zero of N1,000,000.

Step 0 =N1,000,000
Step 1= N2,000,000
Step 3 = N4,000,000
Step 4 = N8,000,000
Step 5 = N16,000,000
Step 6 = N32,000,000
Step 7 = N64,000,000
Step 8 = N128,000,000


Purely on Common Sense Strategy.

Let’s see how it goes. Will post my progress here.

crownprince2017:
Up till now, pa Emma, aj8, ogg, mcy et.al did not tell me their clear view of fidson based on their recent reports.


Sell or hold

Over priced based on eps. Common sense about N3.30 and still falling . Not the type I like to touch even with my health care background. Time to book whatever profits and let your principle run if you are in love with the stock.

MARKETJJC:
Aj8 what is happening in RTBRISCOE? I just dey use side eyes lookam since I came down at #1.72 but it is just moving to God knows where. Is there any other thing ?

Not yet a stock for long term hold in my opinion , though prospects from eps informed my call. Like I said in my earlier post, out at N1.60 no matter what. Well over 100% gain is good. Please Look away my brother. It will sure come back to N1.60 once the smoke clears.

emmanuelewumi:
Hope you know they had a forex gain of N6 billion in H1 which will not happen in H2

So do you want him to buy at the current price or do you agree with me that he should wait for a significant drop below this current price?

What price do you consider he ought to enter? I think he can gain from your wealth of knowledge and experience.

“Greed and fear drive the market. Just try not to take either of the two home” .


Aj8

Profit is profit. No regrets.

eziokwunwoko:
Mr aj8. Based on your Common Sense Strategy. Should I buy UAC PLC at current price?. Appreciate your response

H1 eps = 3.01
FY est = 6.00 approximately

Common Sense Value = 6 x 4 = 24

However, div of 22 kobo is rather poor so apply 75%

My Common sense adjustment on the market sentiment of dividends = 24 x 75% = 18

Market as you can see is already around this price.

So I wouldn’t buy at the current price based on the strategy.
Until it falls significantly below 18 to guarantee a profit by the time it climbs back to 18 or better still climbs to 24 on better market sentiments.

I will post UAC’s chart . That may give some further insight.

emmanuelewumi:
Only possible if you know you are gambling. But most people are gambling but think they are investing.

When your N1 million turn to N2 million in 6 months, the next target is how to turn the N2 million to N4 million in another 6 months.


What you make does not matter, what matters is the consistency of what you make and what you keep

Okay. Thank you.

yak:
Someone should advise me what to do with Eterna. I bought at #28.
Keep hope alive or sell and cut my losses?

Based on two recent insider trades, I suggest you keep hope alive. Eterna is turning positive should the current trajectory continue. I bought some at 15.50, and took some profit at 21.75 but will continue to hold. My target is 30.

emmanuelewumi:
If you made a gain of 100% in year one and made a loss of 50% in year two, do you know that you compounded annualized return in 2 years is 0%

Not if you booked the profit or took the profit off the table to buy back when the market dropped by 50%.

Let’s consider two market scenarios, M1 and M2

Start @ Market M1 investment = x

Market M1 appreciation by 100% = X * 2.0 = 2x

Assuming booked profit

Booked profit = x ( taking profit/ booking profit of x off the table)

Balance still invested @ M1 = 2x -x = x

And then,

Market slumped @ M2 = 50% of x that’s still invested = 0.5x

If the investor decides not to buy back, he /she ends up with x + 1/2 x = 1.5x from the initial of x

However, if he/she buys back at 0.5x with the x profit initially taken off the table, =

Previously Booked profit = x, now channeled to buy back at @ M2 but at a price 0.5x

holding units = 0.5x + 1/0.5x
= 3 times initial holding


Always sensible to take profits.

megawealth01:
I told someone years ago that I won't buy Nestle until it's trading sub 500...

Is this price achievable? Only Mr Time will answer this

A look at the shareholders structure will speak volumes on why this is not likely to happen. Even if the eps is sub zero for years.

emmanuelewumi:
[/b]
I am not buying. I expect the price of banking stocks to crash by first quarter of 2025.

I will then buy on the floor.


Banks will still do well and are currently cheap but can be cheaper.


My opinion though

[b]Historically true Post recapitalization.

emmanuelewumi:
At N590 Dangote cement EPS of N11.00 for H1

At N109 BUA cement EPS of N1. 01 for H1

At N37 Lafarge cement EPS of N1.80 for H1

Big brother’s Hmmmmmm

Okayoooo!!!



Common Sense Strategy.

Drama


[center][/center]

aj8:
Based on Common sense strategy , RT BRISCOE AND CUSTODIAN LIKELY TO DO 100% in a few months. I am in on RT BRISCOE.

RT BRISCOE Has done 100% . It’s now at 1.50 Well done those that took the trade. I got in at 0.73

naturalflow:
you did very well here,thank you so much.but on that transcorp,I guess you take another look.not because I am in the bus already ooo,as you also said,transcorp is a growing stock,so the EPs keeps increasing

Please look at the review.




Will still buy but only below 50k. That’s for me. I will start to take profits once it crosses 70k

dapix:
NCI- meaning Non Controlling Interest right?

Yes

Mpeace:
Hope you no want just de market transcorp. The company is doing exceptionally well these days and is about to pay an interim dividend of 10kobo this month. Full year should be good.
Some of us prefer capital appreciation to dividend, and with Transcorp the chances are very high.

No, I am not. My apologies if you perceived it that way. It's okay to stick to your trades. I fully respect your choice. My respect!

naturalflow:
Prestige assurance is taking us there!so cheap!

My Common Sense Target
90k

Q = 6
FY = 6 x 4 = 24k
Common Sense Value =6 x x4 x4 =96k [/b]

My target will be 90k

I hope I haven't missed anything important.

Do your DD Though.


Note I edited.

TRANSCORP is okay as long as you wouldn’t mind a 5kobo dividend per share bought at over N11.00 If you are willing to wait out price appreciation.

It’s not on my radar for now. Moreover, the NCI is scary.

Adinije:
@Aj8 abeg, come and give your common sense analysis on Transcorp

Not looking good. A lot of red flags. But some may argue it’s a growth stock. Well, you properly know what I think. I won’t touch it till it falls below my Valuation based on the Common Sense Strategy. But then, if Geregu is comfortable at N1000.00, who knows? The stock market is a forest. In a financial hurricane, only the Irokos will stand. Is TRANSCORP one? Maybe later. But not just yet.


Summary is viz:
Q =19.97 Kobo
FY = 19.97 x 4
Valuation = 19.97 x 4 x 4 = 319.52
= N3.19

A [b]Reserve Stock Split [/b]will increase the price, and reduce OS, but the cap will be unchanged. The company will gain in that they can offer their shares at a higher price in raising more capital in the future.

chunkuli:
@ Aj8 Please can you suggest some of these biotech companies? I trade the US biotech stocks too. Please iin other not to derail the thread, please send to Solaralph2002@gmail.com, thank you

Markets like say the US? …I have only tried it on the Nigerian Stock Market. Has worked for me for over 20 years. DO NOT APPLY TO ANY OTHER MARKET OTHER THAN THE NGX. I do trade on NASDAQ but limited to Biotechnology where I can apply my medical knowledge. For this, I simply put up notifications on Yahoo Finance to jump in at support for selected companies with huge prospects and FDA catalysts like PDUFA news, etc. The chances of being profitable increase by buying at the right price. And again, no profit is profit until taken and banked.

Noted. Don't.just buy at any price. Buy at support. After AI, the next big thing is obesity/diabetes/Ozempic and anything G1P. Use the Nasdaq screener. Search Strong buy..Biotechnology. Don't do biotech except you understand the field. Biotech is not an area you buy and go to sleep. If you are in the medical that would be a huge plus. Derailed only this once.

yMcy56:
I understood that your "Common Sense" strategy is FA based somehow....
I however will say, SA wise this stock CWG and Ikeja Hotels are promising, may not be now, but there's something that will come up along the line to make them attractive to investors.
Financial wise, there are lots of improvements Q-on-Q

For CWG, from 5 and below, I think it should be good for accumulation.......barring any unforeseen circumstances.

Thank you for your comments yMcy56. Noted.
Common sense is at N5.30 approximately. I wouldn’t buy till it’s well below that price. I will, however, based on your depth of guru insight, keep it on watch list. You have my utmost respect.

yMcy56:
Simply check your mail and reply the person....
Or, click on the notification (that someone has sent you msg) on top of the NL page once you login, it will link you to the mail.
You can dismiss the msg thereafter on NL page by clicking "dismiss".

Thank you.

ikemeze:
. Thanks . I sent you email. Please check it

Can anybody please educate me on how to check mails on this platform . Some may actual feel I am ignoring them. Ndo!

Streetinvestor2:
It is obvious you went through the result what was the percentage of forex gain to the total revenue. Or thr was no forex gain in the result .I want to be sure the present eps is not forex gain imput

PLEASE DO YOUR RESEARCH. ITS CALL DUE DILIGENCE ANYONE COULD BE WRONG AND THAT INCLUDES ME. YOU ARE YOUR CEO. WE ARE ALL TRYING THE BEST TO HELP ONE ANOTHER GET THROUGH THESE DIFFICULT TIMES. TO GOD ALONE WE OWE ALL WE HAVE AND ARE. Just note the NCI ( Non - non-controlling interest). Rather small here.

COMMON SENSE STRATEGY TO WORK MUST BE BASED ON ORGANIC GROWTH. PLEASE GO THROUGH MY EARLIER POST.

Did you notice the multiple insider trades? June 2024.