₦airaland Forum

Svoboda:
You remember when APC came second in Anambra guber election under Buhari. Ifeanyi Ubah could have pushed Soludo down to the wire but for his unfortunate demise. I told you before that there's going to be a lot of skirt and blouse voting. One thing you need to know about the SE is that when Obi isn't on the ballot, there's a lot of lukewarmness pervading the air. This is because voters look beyond party in assessing candidates. That's why the bandwagon effect pushes nass candidates in the same party with obi to victory, while those for hoa suffer a lot of losses.

slivertongue:
The North will not be as divided as the south not because it has few candidates. In 2023 the north went with Tinubu but his policy actions has destroyed the economy, many homes are in penury. These millions of electorates in the north will vote against him, votes will be shared amongst the three. In the north Atiku will get most, Tinubu then Obi. In the south Tinubu will get more then Obi, Atiku won't secure much. The south has a fairly strong candidates and is a region were the people are objective yet the quantity of votes that will be cast will fall short of the votes of the North which seeks a partner different from the Apc.

Svoboda:
You can't still assess with a small election. The person they don't want is Tinubu, and not the governor. It happened in 2023, so until we come to that point when it will be obi v Tinubu, or Atiku v Tinubu, we can't talk so confidently for now.

Svoboda:
Same way PDP won off cycles in 2014, only to lose 2015. In Enugu north, which parties were the major contenders? Was NDC on the ballot?

slivertongue:
Your writing style is now tamper with mild optimism instead of your usual braggings of the North will give Apc 70% votes. Tinubu squandered the goodwill of Nigerians. No Northern politician can make good his promises to Tinubu. They may win their seats but the people are likely to stop Tinubu like the south did in 2023. Tinubu should take another look at the economy because that will determine his electoral fate.

Ofunaofu:
Adeleke's reelection is as clear as day

Svoboda:
Which by elections? How can you assess a general election swing by using by elections that had less than 2.5% voter participation? In some cases, not more than two political parties participated. Beyond that, these are heavily concentrated elections where the govs determine over 90% of outcomes.

slivertongue:
Hard data was thrown up in 2023 yet he surmounted it. You are at liberty to call 2027 a walk in the pack but do not force your narrative on the public. Obi had no major money bag but the young people who trusted him. Obi wasnt on a major platform except for the young people who were the major platform. Obi had no this and that except the young people who formed his this and that.

APC folks should leave Atiku, Obi and Kwankwanso alone and market their party. The masses are asking for deliverables not names of opposition party members. The Nigeria of today isn't for fruitless banter and the throwing up of stats for victory, but for service by those elected to serve.

I can't be an APC supporter and spend my time on another candidate instead of marketing my party's performance. The refusal of APC folks to focus their party's performance and its impact on the people speaks volumes and the people know what to do. Those of you promoting the notion that there will voter aparthy in some places which will benefit the incumbent or that the election will be rigged in favour of the incumbent are oversimplifying matters. You've not asked what if the electorates troop out in there numbers vote and protect their votes all the way to the state coalition centers. Nigerians are no more buying the narrative that it is over before it is over.

Svoboda:
Is Obiano back in Nigeria?

Svoboda:
Obi wasn't also on the ballot in 2021 but campaigned for Val Ozigbo in PDP in 2021 guber election. Apga won 21-0, defeating Val in Aguata as well as Obi in Anaocha. 2 yrs later, Obi ran as presidential candidate of labour party, and swept the whole Anambra electoral landscape by winning almost 100% of the votes. This same sequence was repeated between 2017, when Obiano ran and won his second term against Oseloka obaze of the PDP, who was Obis candidate, and 2019 when Obi ran as RM to Atiku Abubakar, winning Anambra landslide. You see, the example of 2025 election has a precedence, and just didn't happen for the first time in George Muoghalus case.

I am taking pains to give you this perspective. Elections in Anambra have their peculiarities. You can as well glean from the two or three instances I cited above, that Obis candidate always lost in the guber vote, but Obi always won the presidential vote landslide, despite not recieving support from the incumbent governors then, and despite apga fielding candidates for president and nass. Whatever happened in 2025 was just a repeat of this sequence.

2027 will not be different. The same people who voted for Soludo overwhemingly in 2025 would move like a herd to thumbprint massively for Obi in 2027. That has been the pattern since 2019. The major determinants in Anambra politics are the church and the town unions. Not Soludo or apga structure. That day, apga structure will melt to insignificance in the heat of the massive support Obi would amass across board.

slivertongue:
I have seen your type before, you are heading towards an answer. And I repeat obi will do better than 95% in 2027

Peacecore:
He won't. He may try but not up to 40% highest he'll get 25-30% if the politicians too try for am

A chieftain of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in Katsina State, Mustapha Inuwa, has warned that supporters are beginning to lose confidence in the party as the dispute over its governorship candidate selection process remains unresolved.

Mr Inuwa, a former Secretary to the Katsina State Government and governorship aspirant, spoke on Saturday during a meeting with his supporters in Katsina.

He accused party leaders of failing to address complaints over the conduct of the party’s primaries.

The ADC chieftain said his camp had previously raised concerns with the party leadership but had yet to receive a response, prompting another round of consultations with supporters.

“The party that people have confidence in, that they have hope in, is the party that is starting with this kind of mess. It is really unfortunate,” Mr Inuwa said.

“People are disappointed. People are beginning to lose hope in ADC.”

The remarks are the latest indication of deepening divisions within the opposition party in Katsina, where disagreements over candidate emergence for the 2027 elections have triggered internal disputes and defections.

Fresh deadline
Mr Inuwa said his supporters had resolved to give the party leadership additional time to address their grievances, warning that alternative political options remained available if no action was taken.

According to him, the group may review its position within one or two weeks, depending on developments.

“We still give them time to think if they can come to terms with the truth,” he said.

“All we are asking is: do what is legal, do what is according to the law, do what the law stipulates. Especially the Electoral Act, the Constitution of Nigeria and that of the party.”

The former SSG maintained that his group was not demanding automatic tickets for any aspirant but was seeking a process that would be accepted by party members and comply with relevant laws.

‘No primaries were held’
Mr Inuwa reiterated his longstanding claim that valid primaries were not conducted across Katsina State before candidates were announced.

“There was no primary done anywhere, in any of the 361 wards, in any of the 34 local governments,” he said.

He alleged that some candidates emerged through decisions taken by a few individuals rather than through recognised party procedures.

The ADC chieftain insisted that all aspirants, including members of rival camps within the party, should be allowed to participate in any fresh primary or consensus arrangement.

“If we are to hold primaries, everybody should come, including the other camp. Let them come and participate in the primaries,” he said.

Other parties making approaches
Mr Inuwa also disclosed that several political parties had approached him and his supporters amid the lingering crisis.

“APC is looking for us. PDP is looking for us. NNPP is looking for us,” he said.

“We have options, honestly. But my main concern is the ADC.”

He, however, said no decision had been taken on a possible defection, stressing that any future political move would be made after consultations with supporters and stakeholders.

“I don’t decide on my own. We talk to the people, we ask them to go and consult widely,” he said.


Background
The dispute centres on the emergence of candidates for the 2027 elections in Katsina State.

Mr Inuwa and some other aspirants have repeatedly challenged the process that produced candidates for various positions, including the governorship ticket, arguing that it did not comply with the party’s constitution and the Electoral Act.

The controversy has already led to defections by some aspirants and heightened uncertainty within the party’s Katsina chapter as preparations for the 2027 elections gather momentum.

Despite his criticisms, Mr Inuwa said he still preferred a resolution within the ADC and urged party leaders to intervene before the crisis further damages the party’s prospects in the state.

integrity16:
Even though I tend to agree with some of your submission up there, the fact still remains that FG still take 52 percent of FAAC revenue while state and LG take 48 percent.

Even though I detest the approach of obidents in their criticism of government, I don't think it is out of place for them to ask the FG to account for its own share since the FG takes the highest percentage.

If FG cannot be properly accountable, how would state and LG be accountable? FG must lead by example, so the problem is leadership starts from top to bottom.

Peacecore:
This is just a local election contested by Nsukkarians only so relax, Tinubu's not beating Peter anywhere in the South East though he'll have good outing in Imo and Ebonyi.

HIGHESTPOPORI:
While Obi will clear the South 70 percent

vanitybutiwanti:
yes, he will contest and win again in January

saintkel:
I have nothing to say....if it's d will of d people?...so let it be

professorPABX:
Conducting governorship election at Ekiti is a wastage of resources but the Constitution must be obeyed. The real election will be at Osun and in 2027 with be at Oyo State. I was at Osogbo in April and May. There are lots of propaganda on the local radio stations against President Tinubu. The hatreds and propaganda were so much. Also, I noticed the popularity of Adeleke around Ede / OSOGBO axis. The APC candidate (I have forgotten his name) is very unpopular in this axis. I don't know how Adeleke would be defeated except Ijesa and Ife axis come with block voting. If Adeleke can disgrace and win Aregbesola as a sitting governor and native of Ilesa in this axis, I don't know how APC intend to win Adeleke except Senator Fadahunsi moves PDP votes to APC. Again, Adeleke is always winning Baba Bisi Akande in Baba's stronghold and vicinity.

Adeleke is also very popular among Okada riders and transporters

Svoboda:
You cant judge a trend by an isolated, off cycle election. People are less motivated, if not uninterested in participating. This is because the govs ensure the outcome is usually a fait accompli.

vanitybutiwanti:
it isn't dangerous, simple sharing formula arrangement with wike led PDP

vanitybutiwanti:
nop PDP is winning the senatorial by election

Svoboda:
We wouldn't judge with bye elections. You can as well see what's going on in ekiti presently.

Svoboda:
Yes. PDP won bye elections in 2014 and even ekiti, but lost general elections one year later.

Svoboda:
So, elrufai and co didn't vote for him? Tinubus greatest problem is hubris!

ifytrik:
Am going to be voting for APC candidate for the first time in my life even though I hate APC, the apc aspirant ( me ikeje asogwa) did a wonderful job when he was the commissioner for education, I just hope apc doesn't turn him to a monster

Ofunaofu:
The Tinubu Renewed hope agenda is a scam

ElevationD:
They will still vote and return to lament of the hardship that they suffer.

mrvitalis:
People don’t understand the impact of all the unviable road projects and rail projects APC have been borrowing to do since 2015 … they would keep making us poorer as a people by devaluing naira

They tell you naira is falling because we import too much , lol we don’t even import Enough

If you look at Nigeria trade balance since 2015 it’s positive 70% of the years and positive cumulatively

So why then is naira falling ? Infrastructure done with borrow money …. How ?

You borrow money to build a road that can’t generate money to pay back , when it’s time to service debt you print money enter the forex market and boom naira supply increase dollar supply remain same

In naira Nigerians earn far more than 2015 but it’s worth far less

I always urge Nigerians go and watch obi n osibanjo debate in 2019 that’s where APC policy is exposed and where Obi won me over 100%

Listen ,research and learn

Soon if we continue like this minimum wage would be 1 million but would be worth less than 70k today

saintkel:
ask inec...
Una just de do dis cos na Tinubu be una own...

MichaelSokoto:
So how many votes did he actually score na?