₦airaland Forum

Svoboda:
I'm talking of now. I'm telling you a lot of northern APC chieftains will do anti party. They did it to both Jonathan and Obj, but the danger for Tinubu is that unlike both Obj and Gej, he is so unpopular across the south that those who wouldn't want to vote either obi or Atiku would completely opt out of voting completely.

You are not in APC so you wouldn't know. They have always done it and failed. Tinubu is not banking on winning the north outright like Atiku so he can afford to fail here and there. He has a lot of cushion, Atiku doesn't

fergie001:
Obi was his choice in 2027.
Obi was never his choice in 2023. He needed money and assured the Govs he will pick one of them. Ihedioha. Is going for Imo Gov under ADC. There are little or no options actually!

So sad. Imagine you are stuck with people like ihediohw, Duke, nwajiuba, amechi

Svoboda:
He won't get the spread. Will Tinubu get the highest votes cast, or is our constitution blind to this scenario?

Tinubu will get all. When he beats Atiku in Kano, Yobe Borno, Taraba,north central, how will atiku surmount that? There is absolutely no big voting state Atiku has to turn the tide... When the election gets very tight, the difference may come down to what Atiku gets in south, what Tinubu gets in north, what the running mates deliver

Svoboda:
Same way Atiku will take over Tinubus votes in the northwest. Tinubu is unsellable. A lot of APC chieftains in the north will play anti party. Their collective anger is against Tinubus govt.

In Kano, have senator kawu and co been settled?

The votes Tinubu will get in Kano will dampen Atiku's chances. Atiku has gotten weaker in north west .Tinubu won 2 states in north west so he doesn't need to stress himself much. Atiku is largely unsellable that is why he can't be president.
That strategy of banking on infighting or sabotage within a party has never worked, why not just build your party. Even if they want to work against Tinubu, Atiku doesn't offer much prospects. Obi is a no no. No one rewards loyallists like Tinubu. Tinubu can always settle kawu, how will atiku settle Binani and Abbo who are more dangerous

Svoboda:
In 2023, Atiku didn't lose because Okowa failed to deliver delta state. He failed because northerners heeded buharis call to vote Tinubu. This was largely midwifed by El rufai and co. Atiku would be a fool to believe Amaechi can win the south for him. He'd only lose if he loses majority votes in the north, which is most unlikely. Has Tinubu won new voters in the north? Your guess is as good as mine.

You are not good in electoral calculations. Even if the north delivered Atiku, he still failed to get the spread in the south and necessary votes. In national elections, you need all the help you can. Atiku can't do it alone. All those around Atiku are liabilities. What is the need of picking a running mate who can help you achieve the spread? Even if shettima loses Borno/ Yobe, he will get Tinubu significant votes. This is a key difference

Svoboda:
What political influence does the minister have? Has APC settled sen Leah? You don't know that Atiku currently dominates Kd north and central. Just ask around.

He is influential in kaduna south. I know Atiku dominates northern kaduna as of 2023 but we don't know as of now with the massive defections to APC of people like Sen Hunkuyi, Yero, Sambo.

simpleseyi:
.
Meaning that you should stop whatever you just started smoking

I wanted to say can't not can. Amechi even gave 66k not 100k

simpleseyi:
.
When Amaechi was Rivers governor in 2015, he got about 109K votes for Buhari while Wike wrote 1.4 million votes for Jonathan

Meaning

Svoboda:
In 2023, you didn't see the voters defy governors? Besides, what's Tinubus selling point? Every governing index seems to stand against him.

Besides, the Christian areas you're talking about are slippery. Let him just make sure he's in the good books of the Catholics as well as other northern Christian denominations. This is because once obis campaign gains momentum, it'd have the potential of upstaging Tinubu. Remember, the Mu-Mu ticket is still as much a factor as hunger and insecurity.

The chief of defence staff Musa has started mobilizing the Christian and minority north for Tinubu. Kaduna is slipping out of Atiku hands

Svoboda:
Even Tinubu lacks your kind of confidence.

You are not a psychic to read Tinubu's mind. Shettima is not as useless as amechi who can't deliver votes from his base. I think that is the defining factor between the running mates

Svoboda:
Makinde will dilute Tinubus votes in Oyo, a state with the highest voting population bar Lagos in the SW.

Tinubu will takeover Atiku votes in Osun, bayelsa and akwa ibom places he won 2023. Tinubu will bury Atiku in Kano which has the largest voting population in the north. Atiku can't recover from kano

Svoboda:
I also ask, are Tinubus votes in the north still intact?

Yes in the north central, Borno Yobe, zamfara

fergie001:
He didn't bank on them.
Obi was his first and only choice but the rest as they say is history.

Obi was his choice in 2023? Since he has picked them, he is banking on them

Svoboda:
He never won rivers in the first place. Whatever he loses in the south he will gain in the north. Makinde will eat Tinubus votes in Oyo like a rat.

How will atiku gain from makinde action? Which rat will eat atiku votes in Osun?

A member of the House of Representatives representing Karu/Keffi/Kokona Federal Constituency at the National Assembly, Jonathan Gaza, has emerged as the governorship candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in Nasarawa State.

Similarly, the former Minister of Information, Labaran Maku, has clinched the Senatorial ticket of the Labour Party for the Nasarawa North senatorial district at a peaceful primary election held on Saturday.

Declaring the results of both the Governorship and Senatorial primary elections at a special Congress of the party on Saturday in Lafia, the Chairman of the Electoral Committee, who doubled as the returning officer, Dr Kalu Oke, declared that Jonathan Gaza emerged unopposed after his affirmation by all the delegates present at the Congress.

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He said that the process was conducted in line with the Labour Party Constitution, the Electoral Act 2026, and the party’s 2026 Electoral Guidelines.

“Accordingly, having satisfied all constitutional and procedural requirements, Hon. Gaza is hereby declared the winner and duly returned elected as the Labour Party governorship candidate for Nasarawa State,” Oke said.

The committee chairman stated that Gaza’s certificate of return would be presented to him at the party’s national office in Abuja.

Oke also announced that Labaran Maku contested unopposed for the Nasarawa North senatorial seat and was similarly declared the winner after meeting all constitutional and procedural requirements.

Maku is also on the ballot for the same Nasarawa North seat in the upcoming senatorial by-election scheduled for June 20, 2026, following the death of Senator Godiya Akwashiki.

In his speech, the Labour Party’s governorship candidate, Gaza, pledged to deliver transformative leadership, saying he would end what he described as “business as usual” in the governance of the state if elected in 2027.

He said the people of the state are strongly united despite the current challenges in the country, expressing optimism that the Labour Party would win the governorship and other elective positions in 2027.

Gaza described his candidacy as a “social contract” with the people and promised to harness the state’s human and natural resources for development.

He said, “Those resources God has kept for the people of Nasarawa State- human and natural resources will be harnessed for development as a team, we’ll put our heads together, and with the guidance of the Almighty God, we’ll give Nasarawa State a vibrant position where God has destined it to be,” he said.

Gaza urged party faithful and supporters, and other citizens of the state, to campaign peacefully and vote for the Labour Party.

“Let us come out, campaign, vote, and elect the Labour Party for the liberation and the transformation of Nasarawa State,” Gaza
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://newtelegraphng.com/2027-gaza-emerges-lp-guber-candidate-in-nasarawa/&ved=2ahUKEwitp96yxYGVAxXgVkEAHQXcBhYQFnoECCAQAQ&usg=AOvVaw19tFO8TRlbTwmu1QdmcFyf

Mynd44
Nlfpmod
Fergie001
Dominique
Seun
Seunmsg
Saintkiel

fergie001:
It's Amaechi.
Nwajiuba was the name, but perhaps I understand he has a fallout with Ihedioha.

Look at the featherweights Atiku is banking on

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Atiku will make it up with Buhari votes in the North

He can't. Many buharists dislike him. Some will follow kwankwaso.

Svoboda:
This time significant votes won't be enough for Tinubu. He's currently bleeding votes.

It will be enough sir. The person bleeding votes is Atiku, he has lost out in Rivers

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Ameachi can't lose as far as he is in the ballot,it will be difficult for Wike to rig Rivers

It has never been difficult for Wike to take rivers even when amechi was minister sir. Rivers will be taken by Tinubu and obi, nothing for Atiku

Svoboda:
What can Wike do apart from noise? Is he going to teleguide over 2.5m voters in rivers? People don't realize that Tinubu is a hard sell. Unless there's something personal you're getting from Tinubu, nobody will stick out his neck for him.

Wike will deliver significant votes, amechi will lose his LGA as usual

AMINDA:
Still conjectures but this will be a solid ticket. Congratulations in advance to Waziri Atiku Abubakar and Rt. Hon. Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi.

Solid in losing. Amechi will fail colossally in rivers

fergie001:
Leave that CTC jareh.... I have summarised it for you.

In other words, Wike has finally won

fergie001:
I don't understand again.
Agbedi is of the Turaki faction.

He is more amenable and tolerable than the parrot ikenga.. what of the CTC

ManirBK:
that Malami is very powerful that's why I said 60/40%

We have never tested his popularity. We don't know how popular he is. He has been contesting since 2003 without success. I know the most popular person in Kebbi is Adamu Aliero

ozo13:
May be 60/40 in favor of Atiku.

What of malami

ozo13:
same kebbi

Can Tinubu win there

ManirBK:
Tinubu is the answer bro but 60/40% here Kebbi

What about gov idris and malami

ozo13:
I thank God Almighty I reported to the place I was assigned to else na casualty e for be today .

Which state precisely is?

ManirBK:
I was even telling my oga, "The wind is behind me — it will not catch me."

Who do you think will win Kebbi between Tinubu and Atiku and by what percentage

fergie001:
Once it's not a judgement I like I don't put my head to it.
In Summary, the appeal is academic so it was dismissed.

Tinubu doesn't like Ojo people from time. The State APC Chairman is from there but Na figure-head.

I will still like to look at the CTC sha