₦airaland Forum

AMINDA:
The joke is on you. Replacing Ganduje with Adamu from the Northcentral indeed. Couldn't he have found someone else from the Northcentral ab initio? Kindly tell us why Ganduje retired to London immediately after his removal until he was prevailed upon to return only to be betrayed again by Tinubu by accepting Abba Kabir and effectively handing over Kano APC structure to Kwankwaso in disguise?

Binani was the APC gubernatorial candidate in 2023 while Babachir Lawal was an SGF under Buhari who left APC due to Tinubu's muslim-muslim ticket in 2023 and supported Obi. There is no evidence that the duo were ever Atiku’s allies until they moved to the ADC coalition. The big question is why did they leave APC? Why did Tinubu betray them?

Your political naivety is very evident. Ganduje was compensated with board chairman of Faan. The joke is on you to provide evidence of your lies. So Tinubu should reject a sitting governor from defecting. Who does that? How is that betrayal? He should reject those who will increase votes tally? No wonder atiku keeps losing foolishly. You don't know what betrayal is...

Even a child knows Binani is pro Atiku and she never hid it. While in APC, she aligned with Atiku using the chinkafa de wake slogan. She openly campaigned for Atiku that is why Tinubu camp supported Fintiri. You don't know politics just like Atiku your failed master

Eriokanmi:
The apc has set a lot of bad precedents for our democracy, which have now become a norm. First, from Ahmed lawan after losing his presidential primaries bid, went back to his state and snatched the ticket from the man who genuinely won the senate primaries in his state. The party leadership , in connivance with the presidency prevailed over the rightfully elected candidate and Lawan had his way. Is that democracy ?

As if that wasn't enough, it happened in Edo state. And now, it's going to Kwara. Had it been stopped with Lawan, nobody would have been suggesting the nonsense playing out in kwara politics today. Recently, a rep guy who lost primaries was weeping and begging tinubu for a re-consideration. Only God knows how many houses he had sold but still lost
Any country where the will of the people is being genuinely rubbished or jettisoned, what happens in Nigeria will definitely happen to them. Can't everyone see the way the country is in such a disarray but our leaders don't care? When some people who aren't supposed to near power is holding sway, we should expect what has bedeveled us as a nation today. Both the bad leaders and their followers will have a share of their wickedness.

I wonder why the same kwara politicians aren't using the same energy in fighting insecurity in their volatile state, smh!

Why do you enjoy lying childishly against APC? Who won primaries in Edo and was denied? Who told you primary held in kwara and this clown won

AMINDA:
According to Daily Nigerian, Tinubu sacked Ganduje as APC chairman by having a security chief stand over him as he signs the letter via coercion. Goal-Goal. It is not a coincidence that Ganduje has disappeared from the political scene. He is still nursing his betrayal by Tinubu.

Why do you like vomiting nonsense? How was Ganduje betrayed? Ganduje was made to replace Adamu for a while until he found a permanent replacement from the north central. Did Ganduje complain to you? Was that position not meant for north central? Have you addressed atiku betrayal of Binani and Babachir

Svoboda:
You're assuming too much and make it look like the Igbos are numb to the present precarious economic reality.

Tinubu is so unsellable. Nobody is going to rationalize voting Tinubu in the SE. Also, if you're hoping on voter apathy, it's not likely to happen. It could have happened if Obi was a running mate. Now, he's a candidate. That changes a lot of things.

There was apathy in 2023 with obi on the ballot abi? Whatever happens in SE is not really important.... The SBM prediction is similar to what they predicted 2023. They predicted Atiku to gap Tinubu in NE Nw with 20%, now the gap is down to less than 5%. I expected atiku to gap Tinubu with the way obi is gaping in SE. Atiku is finished as far as the juggernauts like Wamakko, Yari, Aliero etc are with Tinubu, no way for Atiku. Except of course you want to say that kwankwaso can't deliver Kano for obi knowing that obi is more unpopular than Tinubu up north

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Who won NC in 2023? Why would they vote incompetence now with insecurity

Tinubu won NC before Incase you forgot. Lol the insecurity is caused by fulanis. Tinubu has blessed them with massive appointments. Kwara, kogi, Niger. Kwara benue divide. Obi will win only plateau and maybe fct

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Obi is winning SS and NC ,no Buhari block votes in the North,it will be shared between Atiku, Kwankwanso and Tinubu

What Tinubu will get in the north will bury obi votes down south as usual. Obi can't win NC

Svoboda:
Conduct a survey, Enugu is 70% catholic. The rest is 20% ang and 10% pentecostals. Don't judge by the big pentie churches you encounter in the urban areas. Go to the rural areas. The denominations you find there are the majority.

As for Tinubu getting more votes in the SE now, it's like you underestimate the obstinacy of the Igbo.

All those people you listed in those Igbo states would largely mind their business, or they get politically drowned. Were they not there to n 2023?

Go watch that election. Soludos will struggle to deliver his isuofia, talkless of Aguata.

Do you know in the southeast, a lot of APC members are ashamed of openly identifying with Tinubu.

They delivered for buhari, they will deliver for Tinubu sir. Uzodinma gave Tinubu the highest votes in the SE followed by umahi. If uzodinma wants to deliver for Tinubu, he will do it. You know how he arranges votes? Let me not go far. If they mind their business, Tinubu will isolate them in second tenure. Again both hope and Kalu gunning for senate presidency in 2027. The only way is by impressing Tinubu. They have no choice. Another thing you need to look at is the turnout in SE is low. Obi will clear the zone but turnout won't be up to 2 mil as usual which is a strategic loss. Again, most obi supporters are pro mnk. Some politically realistic Igbos know obi is going nowhere so voting him is a waste. Better to vote others.

Svoboda:
Obi was a running mate in 2019. The effect might not have a resounding impact like now that he's running as a candidate. That's why he's running solo now may be a blessing in disguise.

Catholics dominate Enugu, and also largely Anambra. In imo, Catholics and Anglicans dominate. You're right. Ebonyi is assemblies of God and catholics. Abia, presby, Methodist, catholic, Anglican and Assemblies.

But I ask, do you believe any of these churches would abandon Obi now and opt for Tinubu?

When it comes to denominations, they may fragment or disagree on local politics. But as long as Obi presidential ambition is concerned, once the Catholics and Anglicans speak with one voice, c est finis.

The Enugu I know is not dominated by Catholics sir. Imo followed by anambra are purely Catholic dominated. I never said they will abandon obi and vote Tinubu. All I am saying is that Tinubu will get more votes in SE than in 2023. Hope will clear orlu zone as you know and Tinubu will also get someting sizeable. Hope will also ensure senator ndubueze clears okigwe will trickle down to Tinubu. I see Mbah getting more than 25% of Enugu for Tinubu based on his performance and almost all elites in Enugu are in APC. Again, the opposition is non-existent. In Ebonyi, Anyi chuks the PDP candidate is pro Wike and therefore pro Tinubu. Hon Igariwey who was a major opposition voice is now the Apc reps candidate for Afikpo. Anyim Pius is Apc. In Abia Ouk will clear Abia north and try to impress tinubu. You already know Otti is friendly with Tinubu. For anambra, the only thing Soludo can do is to get sizeable votes in his Aguata LGA and Obiano to do same in anambra east. After what happened in the bye elections, there's some hope

Svoboda:
Obi is eating into Tinubus supposed votes because they presented his term as southern turn.

Tinubu won't get the 6m he got previously from the north. His aim was to shore up to cover for that inevitable deficit by uniting the south behind him. Obviously, that plan has all about gone up in flames.

You are missing the point, that was never the plan. The strategy is still based on 2023. Win SW, divide SS, win NC, divide NE NW or lose narrowly. Any other thing is just political talk. Obi being in the race is what is even helping Tinubu. Obi not contesting or contesting with Atiku is advantage Atiku.

Svoboda:
As long as Obi is eating Tinubus votes in the south, and Atiku is returning the compliment in the north, no problem. Atiku or Obi is a goal.

Obi is not eating Tinubu votes. Tinubu never won SE to begin with. Rather Tinubu will eat into obi votes in SE and SS. According to this poll, Atiku will come last

Svoboda:
Close isn't good enough. As long as Obi is a major contender, Tinubu is going to hover between 5% and 10% in the southeast. Fear the catholic and Anglican denominations in the SE.

Was obi not a contender on the ticket in 2019? Don't forget the Anglicans rival the Catholics and will vote against obi. Again, Ebonyi, Abia and Enugu are dominated by Pentecostal churches. Close is good enough, Tinubu doesn't need 25% in SE as long as he will get it in other states.

AMINDA:
Everywhere will be divided. Whoever emerges with the highest margin will become president and as at today, the odds favour the Atiku/Amaechi ticket.

It does not favour him sir. From this poll, he will come last. If sw is the decider, Tinubu wins. Anything division of votes favours Tinubu because he will pick votes everywhere, obi and Atiku cant

Validated:
Did you read the report? NDC currently leads APC by 44% to 25%. The remaining 23% are undecided, meaning they lean on either side.
However, nationality, NDC is OK.

Same sbm predicted obi in 2027

Svoboda:
Going by this projection, Tinubu is one foot away from losing his re-election. Even if all the 23% undecided were to go for him, it won't materialize to much. This is the region he is expected to win handsomely, considering his general unpopularity and lack of genuine organic support.

Going by that poll, we can agree that obi will win north west, divide north east and win the presidency?

Bluna:
I can only talk about where I reside.
Based on popular opinion so far, APC will struggle in Ondo, but NDC is not popular here.

One thing I've observed is that Southwest will likely experience low turnout in 2027. Many people that voted in 2023 have already lost interest in this next election.

The reason Tinubu will likely be reelected is not because he is popular, but because Atiku and Obi won't contest together on a joint ticket. This would've been the only combo to unseat Tinubu and secure victory for the opposition.

Exactly. Tinubu highest winning margin will come from Ondo. SW turnout is usually 3.5 mil since 2015

AMINDA:
As I have always maintained, the Southwest remains the most dynamic region in terms of voting pattern, only next to the Northcentral. Unfortunately for Tinubu, that is his only base. Votes will be split here, and even if Tinubu ends up with the highest votes cast here, it won't amount to much.

Where will Atiku get his votes since north east will be divided

Svoboda:
Nothing like that in this particular instance. Obi is to southeast what even Tinubu isn't to the southwest. It's like Peter Obi kept them under a spell. That's the reality. Tinubu will struggle to even generate his much touted 25% in any of those states.

What will atiku generate? Tinubu will get close to 25% in Imo , Enugu and Ebonyi this time just like buhari 2019

franchasng:
What evidence do you have to prove that Tinubu actually won because even at the Presidential Election Tribunal, INEC refused to produce the form EC8As they used to declare Tinubu winner when Obi challenged them to produce it, instead they said it's Peter Obi's responsibility to produce it to prove them wrong. The irev server they collected billions to build as guarantee backup for electoral result, they switched it off and refused to allow results to be uploaded even after making their criminal declaration because they realized the results that were later uploaded contradicted their declaration so they stopped the upload when Nigerians started challenging them.


That 2023 Presidential election result was fabricated by INEC. Peter Obi won the election but got robbed by Buhari/APC/Tinubu through INEC.

You see, you have failed to prove anything. Even obi has never said he won it. Better stop the infantile delusion

franchasng:
Tinubu did not win 2023 Presidential election, you guys should stop saying this rubbish based on the fabricated result INEC showed you gullible Nigerians.


Peter Obi won 2023 Presidential election. The people that worked under Buhari to install Tinubu thinking he would depart under health challenges for Shettima to take over and return the power to North have confessed secretly after Tinubu sidelined them the Buhari camp.



Peter Obi came first, Tinubu came second while Atiku came third but they intentionally gave Obi third to demoralize him and Obidient from making future attempts.


If you know the caliber of Northerners that reached out to Kwankwaso secretly to convince him to deputize Peter Obi, you will remain silent forever on Nigeria's political discussions.


It was Northerners under Buhari that made Tinubu President. Tinubu never won at all and he knows this truth.



Peter Obi knows he would win under any party, he is only worried about defending the votes and getting declared. This is why he worked hard to get a strong Northern Muslim to deputize him which his former running mate Datti doesn't want to understand because he thinks it's by gragra alone.....



Obi knows that the only challenge is defending his winning at the polls knowing how brutal Tinubu is in politics....and that is why he challenged Nigerians that if they don't want election to be rigged, that it will not be rigged, that the fight to defend votes should not be left for the Presidential candidate alone if Nigerians want a better Nigeria.



Based on exclusive information Obi have, he confided in Dele Momodu as a friend that he is more popular than Atiku that Atiku should just play a fatherly, elite role and allow him represent the coalition but Atiku refused because he relied on the fabricated 2023 Presidential election result where he was awarded second ahead of Obi that actually came first.

What evidence do you have to show that obi won

AMINDA:
Sanwo-olu failed to deliver Lagos because both himself and Tinubu lacked the capacity and popularity. True or false? Tinubu has the North to thank for his victory. He was totally flawed by Obi in the South. That is the point we are trying to make.

The point is that oshiomhole delivered his zone and Tinubu beat Atiku who took second home and away

AMINDA:
I thought Tinubu was the Southern candidate? Why then did he fail to win Edo? You also told us governors will deliver their states because they are now in the APC. Can you kindly tell us why Obaseki failed to deliver his state to Atiku and why Jide Sanwo-olu also failed to do the same for Tinubu? I am waiting.

Obaseki failed because he has no capacity or popularity. Oshiomhole is a senator and delivered his district. Your Atiku lost the north to Tinubu. How many times will you bring this topic? Tinubu won and that closed the chapter, Atiku is a loser and will keep losing

AMINDA:
Oshiomole couldn't deliver his state to Tinubu in 2023. Obi won Edo state.

He delivered his senatorial zone, Obaseki who was the governor couldn't deliver his state for your Atiku.

xtianchris:
Guns Ablazing comes to mind

How

Figger:
Gaza means sand in Arabic

It is an Eggon name and means something different

Svoboda:
You're getting it all wrong. I don't hate Tinubu. I couldn't have hated whom I supported in 2023 over my fellow constituent.

I just don't agree with his style of governance since he assumed power. He has since derailed from the true ideals of the APC.

Tinubu isn't on the level of Obj in terms of statehood. Post civil war story of Nigeria won't be complete without Objs historical imprints.

Tinubu is recognizing pro democracy activists something a vindictive obj failed to do. Does APC truly have an ideal or objectives? Tinubu is the real APC, the true brain behind it. Buhari represented socialist ideals, Tinubu is a core capitalist

Svoboda:
Tinubu wants an illusionary cult followership. Everything has to be about him. Even Obasanjo, in his flamboyance, didn't dwell in this idealism of commissioning monuments named after him when in office.

It's not enough that MKO never became the president that Tinubu is today. It's enough that MKOs illustrious history is consigned to the past, with no reference to his legacy and struggle.

But Tinubu can never be a Buhari, nor an MKO. He lacks the presence and charisma. So much for an Omoluabi.

Your hate for Tinubu is nauseating. Tinubu has surpassed both sha

fergie001:
Don't we know the winner of 2027 already?

A lot do not

Svoboda:
That bandwagon effect might fail woefully. Fintiri might not even struggle to win his election.

It has never failed esp in the rural areas and not with an unpopular candidate like Atiku. Fintiri is dominant in Adamawa north esp with Abbo not contesting. The Apc considered christians and non fulanis unlike ADC that fielded Muslim fulanis all through...

The fact is that as far as political gladiators like Wamakko, Badaru, Aliero, Yari, Geidam, Lamido, masari, Hunkuyi etc are with you, they will always give you 30% of their states. They are like kwankwaso in their domains with fierce loyal, die hard supporters. They delivered for PDP from 2003-2011 even against almighty Buhari. Is it Atiku that will stop them? Tambuwal in 2019 delivered 40% of sokoto to Atiku, Lamido gave Atiku 25% of jigawa. Atiku apart from winning southern kaduna got 30% of northern kaduna because of Hunkuyi. Can you tell me that kwankwaso will not deliver 30% of Kano for obi? The reality is that tinubu will divide core north unless his allies betray him

Svoboda:
Yes, the same tactical support she gave Atiku in 2023. Babachir is paperweight. Fintiri will be too absorbed in his senatorial race to do any heavy lifting for Tinubu on election day. Ribadu is also overrated. If the Christians are endeared to Fintiri, why didn't he pick a Christian candidate to complete the circle he was drawing?

Most Adamawa Christians have always been with Fintiri, irrespective. But not now that he's leaving. Mind you, Adamawa tends to switch parties at the end of an incumbents second term.

Did Bindowo finished his tenure before the switch? Babachir is a paperweight but a lot of Christian northerners are very sensitive and emotional, they tend to listen to such people who speak in favour of their religion. They are easily swayed once religion is involved...

Fintiri contesting for senate is exactly why Tinubu will benefit. Many of those that will vote him will vote other APC voters en masse from top to down. This is commonplace in rural areas.... The Apc candidate is a product of Ribadu not Fintiri. Fintiri candidate is tagwami a Christian. The agreement was for Ribadu to produce governor, Fintiri running mate

Svoboda:
So, Abbo did anti party? Because he contested and won senate under APC in 2023. So, not having Abbo will make Atiku lose Adamawa? As for seriake and Binani, story! Nigerian politics is simply too complex for straitjackets. You cant regiment politicians, least of all Binani.

Binani can support Atiku covertly not openly. She could have done it far better in ADC or another party with no presidential interests. Tinubu is aware of potential betrayers that is why he has several campaign teams and his core loyallists are in charge. His son Seyi has 4 campaign groups alone and counting....the fact of the matter is that with Fintiri in APC alongside Babachir, Tinubu will get more votes in Adamawa and atiku less though Atiku will win. The balkanization of Adamawa Emirates by Fintiri has endeared him to the christians

Svoboda:
Was abbo ever with Atiku until adc? Did Binani also tell you she's got problems with Atiku?

So Binani will abandon Atiku for obi or Tinubu?

Abbo supported Atiku in 2023 immediately tinubu declared shettima, same with bwala and Dogara while Babachir went obi, have you forgotten so soon? Binani cannot work for Atiku as far as she is in NDC, it seems you don't know Dickson. Whatever she does will be limited. Besides Atiku has picked a candidate for ADC.

Svoboda:
Fingers crossed.

Kebbi, sokoto, Katsina, Gombe, Adamawa, Jigawa, bauchi cannot overturn Kano, kogi, kwara, rivers, delta, Edo, akwa ibom, benue, cross river, Lagos, Ogun, Oyo except it is not mathematics