₦airaland Forum

Mirasteel:
The military guy isn't wrong

He is dead wrong

muyico:
Despite the accusation of votes buying, counting cont.

How do you handle the incident of vote buying

Patojargz:
You’re dull….

Not as much as you

WhizdomXX:
Who was he rigging for, is it Tambuwal or Wammako?

Tambuwal probably going by what happened

BodePolScience:
The judgement was appealed and that means the previous judgement that declared Shaibu's removal as unconstitutional isn't yet sancrosact.

It still subsists

geoworldedu:
No matter how they don't like themselves, they don't like strangers more. Go and verify.

Tinubu is no stranger, he has made long standing relations with them since 1999. Besides, late Abiola almost won the north against Tofa. Again, Tinubu Muslim Muslim ticket is very attractive to northerners.

AMINDA:
You get it. Their idea of being a master strategist is destroying political parties through inducement and subterfuge. Tinubu started this move in conjunction with Wike by sponsoring Magnus Abe to engineer crisis in Rivers state APC. APC failed to field candidates in practically two electoral cycles in the state. This anti-party move was done to deny Amaechi a foothold in his state as an aspiring contestant for the APC presidential primaries. They have now perfected the move at the national level, and it will succeed as long as there are people that money can induce. This is what our subsidy savings are being used for. It is also how nations fail.

Oga, the fact of the matter is that your Atiku has been buried

geoworldedu:
Why I believe that the best rigger won is that I stay in Lagos and I interviewed over 500 people. Maybe like 2 or 3 were talking about voting Tinubu. I had many Yoruba people campaigning for Obi. Although some of them eventually stayed indifferent when insults were too much for their tribe from the Obidients online, offline and even in public right there in Lagos.
Now what makes me think that the North was heavily rigged for Tinubu is the fact that Northerners love themselves so much and I doubt a possibility of them leaving their own Atiku and voting Tinubu, no matter what Tinubu did for them before the election. For the upcoming election, if Tinubu can pull up that amount of vote in the North again, then it will solidify my belief that it was heavily rigged for him. I don't think it is human beings, I mean normal citizens of Nigeria that will re-elect Tinubu. I heavily doubt this.

Oga, the north has never liked Atiku . North don't just like any northerners

geoworldedu:
Why I believe that the best rigger won is that I stay in Lagos and I interviewed over 500 people. Maybe like 2 or 3 were talking about voting Tinubu. I had many Yoruba people campaigning for Obi. Although some of them eventually stayed indifferent when insults were too much for their tribe from the Obidients online, offline and even in public right there in Lagos.
Now what makes me think that the North was heavily rigged for Tinubu is the fact that Northerners love themselves so much and I doubt a possibility of them leaving their own Atiku and voting Tinubu, no matter what Tinubu did for them before the election. For the upcoming election, if Tinubu can pull up that amount of vote in the North again, then it will solidify my belief that it was heavily rigged for him. I don't think it is human beings, I mean normal citizens of Nigeria that will re-elect Tinubu. I heavily doubt this.

Oga, the north has never liked Atiku

naijacann:
Every true observer knows Obi won the election with 18 to 19 states:
-The whole of 5 SE states
-The entire 6 SS states. You can imagine how ridiculous INEC was in stating that Obi lost Rivers, Bayelsa and his wife's state of AlwaIbom....smh.
-NC states of Nasarawa, Plateau, Benue, Kogi and Abuja
-NE state of Gombe
-SW states of Lagos and Ogun (and had a strong showing in Oyo and Osun but didn't win there).
His votes in Kaduna, Kano and Borno were severely reduced to make way for Tinubu to rig.

Any cogent evidence

AMINDA:
It's obvious that the PDP governors have all outplayed Wike. By decamping to the APC, they have neutralised his perceived hold on the party while leaving him with little to no leverage in his bargain with Tinubu. Even if Wike decamps to the APC today, he would take his place behind other leaders like Akpabio, Oshiomhole, even governor Sheriff in the Southsouth.

He would decamp after Tinubu is reelected and will control rivers and bayelsa APC

fergie001:
Olamaboro LGA
Igala

Some said Ofu. Federal character followed sha

aylipple:
I like your analysis, it has depth. Would love to read your take on the possible outcomes for SS/SE & SW.

For SE, obi should win though with reduced margin followed by Gej and Tinubu. Tinubu will get good votes from Imo and Ebonyi for obvious reasons. Nothing much will change in anambra and Enugu. Tinubu votes will slightly increase in Abia...

For SS, Gej will win bayelsa and rivers followed by Tinubu, Tinubu will take rivers and CRS while obi takes delta and Edo with slim margins...
Tinubu will take Lagos this time while obi and Gej follow closely. Tinubu should win Ekiti, Ogun comfortably. Osun will be divided but Tinubu should win with adeleke now supporting him. Tinubu will take ondo comfortably. If makinde is on the ballot, Oyo will be tight for Tinubu.

Ibrothehassan:
He is from Ofu LGA

Same as late Abubakar Audu

fergie001:
Ogalla is from Enugu.
Abbas is from Kano
Shaibu is from Kogi State

Where in kogi

aylipple:
Lol. I actually want GEJ to contest so that we can test something... Personally, I believe he'll lose woefully (3rd or 4th depending on if the race includes PBAT, AA, PO, RMK & GEJ).

His entry into the race will ruin PO's chances considerably as the SS & SE are his stronghold but with GEJ running, his support base will be limited to SE and if previous presidential polls are anything to go by, you can become president of Nigeria without winning or even scoring 25% of the total votes cast in the SE.

While it weakens PO & AA's chances in the SS to the advantage of GEJ, it helps PBAT's chances slightly especially in Rivers (the Wike factor & then the Ogonis/Riverine will vote massively for PBAT for obvious reasons) some parts of Delta (Itsekiri), Bayelsa (APC has a modest support base there not to mention that the Minister of State for Petroleum, Sen. Lokpobiri will be pulling some strings there too), Akwa Ibom, Cross River (not really expecting much from here but the combination of Gov. Otu & Min. John Owan Enoh may yet come in handy) & Edo (the Okpebholo effect) will churn out those numbers.

The battle will be fought & lost in the NW & NE and with a heavy financial war chest, I don't see how the coalition plan to outspend the APC (yes, money, more than ever before, will play the most important role in 2027 that's why the most impoverished the people are, the better for the incumbent. It's the unfortunate reality, sadly.

In the NC, APC will do better than in 2023 especially in Plateau, Kogi (Kogi West people will vote massively for APC than previous polls), FCT (with Wike as Minister and knowing his type of politics, PBAT will get at least 25% here) & Nasarawa. Unfortunately for the APC, they'll most likely not get as much votes as they did in 2023 in Kwara, Niger & Benue. The party will however get 25%. I predict that P.O will do better in the NC in 2027 than he did in 2023 only difference this time is PBAT will cover some grounds.

I expect AA to win convincingly in Niger, Nasarawa, Kaduna, Bauchi, Zamfara, Sokoto, Adamawa, Jigawa, Kebbi, Katsina, Yobe & Borno. It'll be a close contest between him & PBAT in Taraba & Gombe. Kano is too early to call as RMK's yet to decide if he'll be working with PBAT or he'll be running again; if the former, APC will win Kano with a moon slide but if the latter, PBAT & AA will have a photo finish of course, behind RMK. However, with the financial war chest at APC's disposal, PBAT may just weaponize the poverty prevalent in the North to his advantage.

In North - depending on states won - AA will come tops, followed closely by PBAT (all thanks to the better outing I predict APC will have in Kaduna esp. S/Kaduna, Plateau, Kogi, FCT, Taraba, Bauchi esp. S/Bauchi where Rt. Hon. Dogara hails from) then GEJ, PO & RMK.

In the SW, I predict that PBAT will have a better outing than he did in 2023 then followed by either GEJ or PO then AA & RMK.

Overall, I predict that GEJ & PO will either come 3rd or 4th in no particular order. The real contest will be between AA & PBAT.

Tinubu will get more votes in Benue and Kwara. Niger might be tight but with Bago's performance and with Muazu Babsngida supporting Tinubu, I give it to APC. Atiku can never win nasarawa sir for obvious reasons. With Tinubu winning over southern kaduna and Uba Sani performance and the collapse of pdp in kaduna, Tinubu should narrowly win Kaduna or lose narrowly. With Bala contesting or being running late to Gej, Atiku will struggle to win Bauchi.. Tinubu biggest win in NW 2023 was from zamfara and with governor Dare refusing to join ADC, it will be tight. Atiku won sokoto with 3000 margin due to Tambuwal incumbency. With APC in charge, Tinubu will win sokoto. Lamido has withdrawn his support for Atiku in Jigawa so Tinubu wins comfortably. Katsina is 50 50 but with the PDP almost collapsing into APC and with the emir of Daura publicly endorsing Tinubu plus the Grand burial of Buhari, Tinubu has the advantage. Yobe is tight but advantage Tinubu. There's no way Atiku can ever win Borno, no chance. Atiku won Kebbi because of the structure of senator Aliero who is now in APC. Kebbi is tight same as Taraba but if Kefas defects, APC gets Taraba. Atiku can only win comfortably in Gombe and Adamawa but with Fintiri supporting Tinubu, the margins might be close. Apart from these two states, Atiku cannot win any northern state convincingly.
Tinubu humiliated Atiku in Kano so whether RMK contests or not, Atiku has no chance here. the recent by elections showed us that APC completely owns the north

aylipple:
Kogi (Okuns) eating good under PBAT. Prominent Okun sons are getting strategic and very important appointments under this administration - first it was Prof. Joash Amupitan (SAN) as INEC Chairman & now, Maj.-Gen. Waidi Shuaibu as COAS.

I hope these two appointees will justify the confidence reposed in them by the President and also represent Okunland well.

I wish the new COAS success.

The chief of army staff is an Igala. Besides, you hardly find Muslims from the Okun people

Chegesnd:
Congratulations!
Three Masters Degrees!
It's your turn to chop, how I wish you were in the Navy. Na there money dey nyafu nyafu!

I am concerned with his lack of combat or battle field experience

fergie001:
Story.
The sacked Chief of Naval Staff was also from Enugu.

Where is. Gen shuaibu from?

Some said Ogalla wasn't mainstream Igbo, probably from a town linked Idoma/Igala

Ibrothehassan:
Congrats to him and the Igala nation

Which part or LGA in kogi east

dalongjnr:
Mediocrity.
I can tell you categorically that he will flop 🤧 😔.

From that profile, he is overqualified and another Lagbaja. I wonder where he hails from

osuofia2:
He is a Junior minister of state, Beta Edu was a Minister of Humanitarian affairs

He was the minister of sports before being reassigned. The constitution specifies that a state should have at least one and CRS has that. Any other thing is jara

osuofia2:
Cross Rivers State lost their chance to Plateau.

CRS already have a minister, Owan Enoh

AMINDA:
Lol. So what are you going to do with a Kwankwaso? Replace Shettima in place of him? APC currently has silent tussles that is threatening to tear the party apart in several states. There's no way that everyone can be satisfactorily accommodated. The implosion and/or sabotage is just a matter of time. Be also wary of the "Greek Gift".

States like Kano, Yobe, Bauchi, Jigawa, Zamfara, Benue and others are dealing with a very serious internal crisis which has already take a dimension to destroy the APC party.

In Kano, some APC stakeholders have already started endorsing SEN. Barau Jibrin Maliya as their candidate while others are endorsing the 2023 APC gubernatorial candidate, HON. Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna. And the crisis has already spread across some local governments and Federal constituencies like Tarauni LG where APC party LG Chairman publicly disowned Hon. Nasiru Ja’oji an aspirant for REP and endorsed his rival. Rumors are also circulating that Sen. Barau is trying to takeover the APC party leadership from former Governor Ganduje in 2026 APC congress.

In Yobe it’s already hot between Gov Mai Mala Buni and Sen. Ahmad Lawal, there is a rumor that Sen. Ahmad Lawal former Senate President is aspiring for Yobe state Governor in 2027 and all this feud started from that day…. when last did you see Gov Buni and Sen Lawal together in an occasion or special visit??

In Jigawa, it’s beyond comprehension. Gov Umar Namadi Danmodi and his predecessor current Minister of Defense Badaru Abubakar is in serious crisis which has already create a faction in the state, the rumors are spreading like wildfire that Gov Umar Namadi Danmodi has sidelined all Badaru’s people in his administration, he neither consult nor visit Badaru, his target is to takeover the state party leadership in the upcoming APC congress. Gov Umar Namadi aides are sponsoring musicians to sang a song to troll the former Governor Badaru and his people. In facts, currently all Badaru’s people have resigned from Gov Umar Namadi administration and are opposing and challenging its policies in Jigawa state. They called Gov Namadi as AMBODE.

In Bauchi, it’s a different story, the APC 2023 gubernatorial candidate Retired Air marshal Saddique Baba Abubakar is already seeing in coalition meetings with Atiku and other opposition leaders, there are about 5 Governorship aspirants from APC in Bauchi state including the current Foreign Minister Amb. Tugga, Alhaji Bala Wunti, current minister of Health, Prof Muhammad Pate….. crisis may possibly burst in Bauchi after the 2026 primaries.

In Benue, the rift is beyond my understanding, the feud between the current Governor Alia and Secretary to the Federal Government, Sen. George Akume, rumors spreading that the feud between the Governor and the SGF is connected to state party leadership, the Gov and SGF want to be in charge of controlling the state party leadership. There are also pressure against the Benue State Governor by Benue state Federal Lawmakers accusing him of running Benue like Parish.

These are Northern states only, I won't dwell on the Southern states the likes of Delta and others. Tinubu was smart enough to leave the party structure in Osun in the grip of his cousin, Oyetola by preventing the defection of Adeleke. Selfishness.

How does this help Atiku? Atiku will be humiliated in Benue, kano, Jigawa. He can only win Bauchi, Yobe, narrowly. Atiku has been overwhelmed

AMINDA:
Lol. You mean the Buy-election? Does it also mean the PDP will win the entire Oyo state with Seyi Makinde winning Ibadan North (APC stronghold) and that Anambra will massively vote the APGA candidate in the 2027 presidential election? All the APC governors won their gubernatorial elections in 2023, why didn't all the APC states, including Lagos, deliver Tinubu in the same election?

Makinde will work for Tinubu in presidential sir. In presidential, you don't need to win all states. Tinubu will humiliate Atiku in the south and drag with him up north, it's just that simple. How many times will we debate this? Tinubu has north central already and in a good place to take NW. Atiku has no chance in any southern zone

AMINDA:
Okay, so Tinubu has not lost a single voter in Northern Kaduna but he has gained all of Southern Kaduna votes? If he has lost votes, who did he lose it to? Politics is a zero-sum game. I just told you Northern Kaduna had to split their votes into 3 to accommodate Tinubu, yet he got his third highest votes from Kaduna and came second in the state but still claimed that they worked against him. Time is a gentleman.

The recent bye elections showed Tinubu is in total control of kaduna sir

AMINDA:
Maybe some have but go check the results from Kaduna in 2023. ALL of Southern Kaduna voted LP in the presidential election while the North of Kaduna splitted their votes between Atiku, Tinubu and Kwankwaso. Go figure. Tinubu was genuinely very popular in the North in 2023 and had the benefit of doubt. The same cannot be said now heading into 2027.

Chikun the heartland of SK voted APC. It simply means they have embraced APC. Northern kaduna will still divide so tinubu has kad

gidgiddy:
Yes, after defection and Supreme court decision

Why didn't they reject Nwifuru? You guys could have voted out Uzodinma

fergie001:
He is but entered into an unholy alliance for his second term. The DepnGov is from Dickson's LGA nah!

Which alliance is holy

fergie001:
Since last year the Governor mooted the idea, but Dickson was the problem and remain unmoved. Diri had no choice than to do it now.

The Deputy Governor is a Dickson loyalist and hasn't resigned from the PDP. He knows he has to otherwise he will be impeached.

Kudos, ofurumapepe

Is Diri no longer a Dickson loyallist

AMINDA:
Lol. Tinubu cannot bulldoze himself into second term. If it didn't dey, e didn't dey. We told you these defections are coerced and there's no momentum behind it but you refused to listen. If Okpebholo will have to threaten his own kitchen cabinet to forcefully identify with Tinubu, what does that say about the real electorates? This is the case in many of the states where APC minions are celebrating defections today. Even rigging at gunpoint and spillage of blood will not be enough.

Atiku is finished

gidgiddy:
You have APC Governors in the South East thanks to defection

APC win imo and Ebonyi