₦airaland Forum

DomPerignon:
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Obi will campaign in the SE for Tinubu's re-election.

He is going to be the latest Wike and he will be rewarded with an ambassadorial position to Indonesia for his troubles.

The betrayal that is waiting for him will turn him to an overnight BATist.

Just you wait and see.

No be Tambuwal again?

This is one of the 5 stages of grief. Reality will soon set in. What a sad sight to see. Tinubu sealed his fate by destroying the LP and PDP, thinking he will have no opposition. He ended up unifying them with Kwankwaso likely to back the coalition out of vengeance.

trutharena:
Whats so rattling about the response of Aso Rock?

No. The simultaneous comments by all of them including Festus Keyamo since yesterday clearly shows how rattled they are. Festus Keyamo hasn't slept a wink since yesterday and is still having a meltdown on twitter as at this moment. "The guy is gone!"

Does anyone wonder why all the defections by the governors still fail to give the APC any serious momentum? It's rather received with disappointment by the electorates in their states. Meanwhile, Tinubu is banking on them to deliver him come 2027. Lessons will be learnt!

Lol. After all the flowery comments as vetted from the WhatsApp group, will Tinubu be willing to ditch the muslim-muslim ticket and revert to a muslim-christian ticket? Tinubu selfishly ran a polarising ticket to ensure his own election and is still aggressively chasing after Kwankwaso, a hausa/fulani Muslim and promising him heaven and earth. But Agbadorians continue to play both sides by claiming he's the Southern candidate who cares about the South. Tinubu didn't win the South in 2023 and still won't win it convincingly come 2027.

Other political parties are biggining to best Tinubu in his own game.

Yet another thread? The fear and trepidation is now palpable. It gives us so much pleasure to see the APC in disarray.

seunmsg:
ADC in their desperation can go ahead to give Kwakwanso five ministers, complete control of the party structure in north west and the Vice Presidential ticket. I’m sure Tambuwal and others are salivating at the deal. In APC, we won’t be doing that. We will work with the governor’s camp and the ever strong APC structure in Kano.

Is Tinubu no longer the master of the deal? Why has he been failing to keep to his own side of bargains and always ends up choosing the betrayal route? This was how the "one minister plus 50 billion naira" deal with Seyi Makinde collapsed. Wike is already holding him by the juggulars for wanting to renege on a deal he already signed for Fubara to do a single term. Who's to say that Tinubu will fulfil all the bedroom promises he has been making to the defecting governors and other politicians out of desperation?

P.S: Tinubu was ready to fulfil all Kwankwaso's demands. He already dropped Ganduje and was aiming to drop Shettima. He only chickened out after backlash from the Northeast bloc of the APC. Even you severally celebrated the coming onboard of Kwankwaso to Vice Tinubu here on nairaland. What changed?

Maybe the solution is for Tinubu to ditch the muslim-muslim ticket in 2027 but fear will not allow him to try it. Meanwhile, Agbadorians on NL are promising the middlebelt that they will handover power to them in a christian-christian ticket come 2027. Why can't Tinubu demonstrate the possibility of this and show good faith by reverting to a muslim-christian ticket?

seunmsg:
It will be a great political victory if Ganduje and his camp can accept to work together with the governor.

Are you all sure you want to go through this route? With Tinubu going behind Kwankwaso's back to cut a deal with Abba in the midst of negotiations, he further seals his reputation as being untrustworthy. PDP got negligible votes from Kano in 2023 but with Kwankwaso's back against the wall, he may cut a deal with ADC. Only the naïve will question Kwankwaso's grip on Kano. Are you all sure you want to have the first runner-up, second runner-up and third runner-up from the 2023 elections uniting under one banner? The betrayal narrative will also be counterproductive to your principal's campaign.

Rigging the 2027 elections will be the fastest way to get counted. Men mount!

alanto:
If you have a strong case against Shettima approach the court with it. Was any money traced to Shettima that was used to finance terrorism?

We know you all will be at the forefront pushing these allegations against Shettima as soon as Tinubu drops him for someone else. Just as you all turned on Elrufai after hailing him for his contributions all through the 2023 campaigns. Professional shape-shifting is an extreme sport.

The desperation from Tinubu is palpable. The new agenda is to slam terrorism charges against opposition figures or even APC members who refuse to stand on the mandate. First Timipre Sylva, then Malami, Chris Ngige and now Bala Mohammed. Bauchi remains one of the most peaceful states in the North that has not been plagued by either banditry or terrorism. Tinubu cannot hope to gain Northern votes by moving this way. It will he counterproductive.

Lol. The panic and meltdown from the Agbadorian camp since yesterday is something else. Someone please tell Bayo Onanuga that we have moved past that. They better have a better campaign strategy against Obi than these played out rethorics.

Mynd44:
The thing with political statistics is that you don't even need to win all the states or even majority states.

Nigeria has 36 states (37 in election matters) and you can win just 4 states and be declared winner. It is about getting the required spread and majority.

Last election, he didn't even win Kano and Lagos which has the most numbers

You are correct. He won last election because the North contributed over 5m votes to him out of his total 8m votes. He didn't win the South. With his performance, it's hard to see him replicating such numbers in the North. The ADC is also now set to get the required spread across the South with the coming onboard of Obi. Whoever pulls the highest margin of votes will meet the requirements and end up triumphant. The destruction of the LP and PDP is beginning to look like a bad idea.

Lol. Enugu is firmly in the grip of Peter Obi. Mbah might win his re-election but Tinubu can't get much here.

P.S: All the stated projects were started by Late President Buhari. The projects have rather seen a slowdown in pace of work due to contract variations and paucity of funds under Tinubu. The finishings and quality of work under Umahi also leaves much to be desired. Click on the link and watch the video of the tarky flyover constructed. This shouldn't be a Federal government-tier standard.

Any keen observer knows Wike have been indirectly passing his messages across to Tinubu in the past few days. Tinubu's fate and performance in the Southsouth will depend on who he eventually supports between Wike and Fubara. Any of the choices will have its own consequences. Wike's outbursts are beginning to reduce Tinubu's momentum in the SS despite the whole fiasco of claiming he's campaigning for Tinubu.

WhizdomXX:
Very apt. But how far do you think Tinubu has lost those northern votes of 2023, and don't you think he's likely going to strike a deal with Kwankwaso for Kano votes again if he's running directly against Atiku. Mind you, rigging may be so high in the south western and southern states, unresisted in his favour due to lacklustre of us for Atiku especially if Obi is not brought alot om the campaign tour.. We have supported him before, can't he support our choice this time?

Kwankwaso was in discussions with Tinubu to get the V.P slot but Tinubu went behind his back to try to lure his governor from him just like he did with Uba Sani and Fubara. This infuriation as a result of the double-crossing might even see Kwankwaso joining forces with the coalition. I understand Tinubu stalling on conceding the V.P slot to Kwankwaso. Doing so will be a betrayal of Kashim Shettima and will seal his fate in the Northeast.

ken6488:
you will not understand but Obi will be another weak Jonathan yes I said that tinubu has done more for the south than Jonathan

The north is only using Obi to fight tinubu imagine joining forces with el rufia that almost wiped out southern kaduna

Really. Same Elrufai that Tinubu took everywhere during the campaign, including to Chatham house where he helped bail Tinubu out when he was stuttering? If Tinubu can work with Elrufai and benefit from him, why can't Obi? You claim the North is using Obi to fight Tinubu but Tinubu ran on muslim-muslim ticket and got 5.6m votes from the North that made him President.

ken6488:
you forgot the part where tinubu won most of the south south last election

Lies. Tinubu only won 4 states in the entire South. All 4 were from the Southwest. The 5th state he "won" in the South was Rivers and Wike will tell us how Rivers was won should Tinubu go ahead to betray him. Tinubu didn't win the South in 2023 and he still won't win it convincingly in 2027.

Watch out for Agbadorians pretending to be several things they are not. Their WhatsApp group is undergoing a serious meltdown. The new agenda is unity begging. They are in disarray! Stay alert!!

WhizdomXX:
APC answer to an Atiku Obi ticket will be quite simple.
Ensure low turnout in southeast.
Massively use APC south south governors to campaign for Tinubu as a 'southerner' against Atiku. Hold Lagos on lockdown as Obi fever may likely reduce. Repeat 2023 results against Atiku in Middle belt, by framing the contest as one of him against Atiku.
Digging it out with Atiku openly in the north, likely begging Kwankwaso to his side, banking on his APC northern governors, especially in the Northwest to campaign for him and as much as possible, try to reduce turnout in the northeast and opposition states. I admit, it will be close tho.
I would like to see how Tinubu will deal with an Obi/Kwankwaso ticket.

APC cannot aggressively campaign with "Southerner" or anti-fulani campaign against Atiku unless they are willing to ditch the muslim-muslim ticket and go all out for the South because doing so will further cost them Northern votes. It's the reason why the middle-belt will still be splitted almost equally. The Southeast only need to deliver half the votes Obi got in the last election and ADC will be home and dry. Tinubu/Southwest only delivered 2.3m votes in the APC merger and they gained a lot from it, to the detriment of the other South.

If you're talking sheer numbers, Atiku got 6.9m mostly Northern votes in 2023 at a time when the loudest voices in the North were leading the campaign for power to head South. The North also gave Tinubu 5.6m votes out of his total 8m votes that ensured his victory. The same North gave Kwankwaso 1.4m votes as all his votes were from the North. Even Obi got over 2m votes from mostly the Northern minorities. This was despite the slight voter apathy in the North in 2023. Numbers don't lie.

richmond500:
Whatever happen in Rivers state will shape ADC future.

If Tinubu allows Wike to determine who emerges from the convention or if Wike keep frustrating Rivers state while serving as minister under Tinubu, most APC faithfuls especially from the south will question their survival in APC and the presidents ability to save them from Wikes claws.

But Irrespective of what happened in Rivers state, Atiku/Obi ticket is one of the biggest challenge Tinubu will face.

You're largely correct in saying that how Tinubu handles Rivers will determine his fate, especially in the Southsouth. I don't see how any outcome will be favourable to him. Ditching Wike and throwing his weight behind Fubara will see Wike turning against Tinubu, even if covertly. On the other hand, aligning with Wike to the detriment of Fubara will see him lose a lot of political capital which he has been struggling to shore up in the South. The people's will are clearly with Fubara but Wike has the rigging machinery in his hands. With Wike, Tinubu will realise that he has dined with the devil without a long spoon.

Having said all that, APC has no answers for an Atiku/Obi ticket. A Tinubu/Kwankwaso would have had a fighting chance but it's beginning to look like that alignment will never see the light of day. Not with Tinubu going behind Kwankwaso's back to try to lure his godson away from him. Tinubu did same in Kaduna by stabbing Elrufai in his back and luring his mentee, Uba Sani away from him. There will be time for penance.

LegendHero:
That is not the question. If automatic ticket is the reason they are decamping to APC, are you saying Otti won't get automatic ticket in LP?

Anywhere in politics, when you have a governor decamping to your party, you should provide space to accommodate them especially in states where your party is weak. The first rule of politics is how to secure vote, even if you enemy can guarantee it, you embrace them.

Tell that to Ganduje's candidate, Gawuna and to DSP Barau Jibrin in Kano. Convince them both to jettison their political ambitions and embrace Abba Kabir because they are weak in Kano. Tell them to hands-off the APC they have been nurturing and handover the party structure to Abba, afterall, a governor is the natural leader of the party in a state. The APC has now become a special purpose vehicle solely set-up to ensure Tinubu's re-election or so Tinubu thinks. To him, everyone's political aspiration is expendable except his. The implosion will be unprecedented. Wait and see.

First Seyi Makinde and now Wike. All the members of G5 are gradually revealing the details of the underground deal they signed with Tinubu which he has now completely reneged upon. A man's word is his bond but not for Tinubu. Tinubu had better fall in line by ditching Fubara as expected or risk the ire of Wike.

prizeless:
What about Northern State Governors reckless borrowing? No one is saying anything about that.

Northerners will pay the debt borrowed by Northern state governors. Just tell Tinubu to keep proper records of the ones he's borrowing on behalf of Nigerians. Advice no be curse o.

LegendHero:
At the bold statement, do you mean to say Otti won’t get automatic ticket if he remain in LP?

What is your level of education abeg? If you want to run propaganda, try go school small to sharpen your brain.

Your argument of why governors are moving to APC is nauseating and can’t convince a 5 years old kid let alone adult.

Okay, then you must have the intellect of a 5 year-old. Tinubu is sacrificing the political ambitions of APC gubernatorial hopefuls by asking them to decamp and face no resistance from the APC, in order words, no opposition. There's a reason why many APC stalwarts resist these decampings in several APC states (Delta, Enugu, Osun, Plateau, etc). There's currently silent discontent in the APC because Tinubu is only concerned about his own political fortunes. Reminds one of the famous quote;

"Some of you may die but that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make"

Lol. We said it that Tinubu has no single organic supporter anywhere in the country, not even in Yorubaland. From the South to the North, anywhere you see Tinubu’s "supporters" gathered, they are always in uniform. He will cough out good money to pay for every single vote he gets come 2027 but it will not be enough.

Tabletuner:
Absolutely—Obi or anyone else *can* make that sacrifice. The point is simply that sacrifice usually carries more weight when it comes from the person who has had the most chances. In the end, though, it’s still the people’s call, not any candidate’s.

Okay. Since we are now talking chances, Atiku got 6.9m mostly Northern votes in 2023 at a time when the loudest voices in the North were leading the campaign for power to head South. The North also gave Tinubu 5.6m votes out of his total 8m votes. The same North gave Kwankwaso 1.4m Northern votes as all his votes were from the North. Even Obi got over 2m votes from mostly the Northern minorities. If you're talking strictly numbers and not emotions, then Atiku has higher chances in 2027 than Obi because Tinubu has strong-armed the South and consolidated more grounds while losing tremendous ground in the North who made him President in 2023. The only question you need to ask yourself is whether Tinubu has gained more popularity and acceptance amongst the electorates than he has lost (nevermind the defecting governors). An Atiku/Obi ticket will only need Obi to contribute half of his 2023 margins and ADC will be home and dry with the North returning the favour to the Southeast like they did with Tinubu. Don't let the Batists pretending as Obi supporters deceive you. Even Tinubu will be repeating his muslim-muslim ticket because he dare not risk losing Northern votes. That's why he's promising Kwankwaso and his governor an arm and a leg.

Why not also tell Tinubu to step down for Obi? Afterall, he's not the choice of the South because the South didn't vote for him in 2023. We know you are a closet Tinubu supporter, own it and support your candidate in peace. Obi himself has told you that no one will be stepping down for anybody. Get over it!

No need to do that. He will be voted out in less than two years time from now. Every single borrowed penny must be properly accounted for.

Akpan107:
The Tinubu and co don't even care about your analysis...

They believed with Abba of Kano joining them, they have somebody that will backup their of rigging in the Kano's elections without much noise.

If they succeed without Kwankwaso in 2027, his 2031 presidential ambition will now be killed forever, and he will eventually be political prostitute like El-Rufai

I like how all of you in Tinubu’s camp can't paint a realistic picture of his re-election without affirming that it would be via rigging. Akpan, ask around. Unlike Akwa Ibom, elections don't get rigged in the North if the people don't want you. That's the fastest way to get counted. Tinubu's rigging margins will be coming from your conquered local government in Nsit Atai but he can't rig more than your voting population. There is no equivalent of a Wike in the North who gets his way against the people's will. Every popular politician in the North is only popular with the people's permission.

tunjijones:
This one is ode. Is oyetola contesting for governorship election in osin state?

As far as intellectual luggage is concerned, you're travelling lightly. Oyetola is not contesting but he disqualified Omisore from the race. Only a slow person does not know that the APC candidate is Oyetola's stooge.