₦airaland Forum

Thiefobi1:
Atiku won osun.

Exactly. Atiku also won Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa. This shows you that there's no tribal correlation in both of their victories. It was simply a referendum on what the populace felt about their choices. Tinubu was the only major presidential candidate that lost both his state of residence, Lagos and state of origin, Osun. His people clearly knew him better than the rest of Nigerians.

garykoeman:
What sani said is the plain truth.

Most of his supporters are from his ethnicity.

They are only trying to redefined his failures.

Peter Obi won Lagos.

Krankhead:
Nothing is taking shape. Tinubu will win.
How many in ADC can win election in their state.
Amaechi can't win River, Makinde can't win OYO, Aregbesola can't win Osun, Kwankwaso can't win Kano anymore. APC will win Abuja

Tell him to allow for a free and fair election and stop trying to sabotage other political parties in order to run unopposed.

lawani:
No the Yoruba Christian church votes would not have gone to Atiku. You are wrong on that. The PDP votes might go to him though but the loss would be by a wide margin

So explain why Atiku won Osun, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa and still got as high as 100k plus votes in some Southwestern states. Did they not consider that it was the turn of the South before voting Atiku? Or it just didn't matter much to them?

lawani:
Do you agree that on the overall Tinubu would have won with a wide margin both the SW and the NW if Obi did not contest? And that would be enough to win the elections not minding the fact that the rest of the country would just vote against Atiku because he is a Fulani trying to replace another Fulani or do you think ethnicity does not matter? Added together it would still be a huge landslide in favour of Tinubu

I just told you most of the votes Obi got would have gone to Atiku and you continue to be repetitive. Everyone knows Obi did Tinubu a favour by running but the reverse will be the case if Obi runs in 2027. Tinubu was never the face of the South. Religion was a more stronger factor in the South in 2023 than region and the same will still be the case in 2027. If Tinubu makes the mistake of repeating his Muslim-Muslim ticket, he will only have himself to blame. Already, the Church has continued its antagonism towards him. It will get more intense heading into 2027. This time, there will no longer be 5.6m Northern votes to carry him home.

“During your first four years in office, you did nothing, and now you want Nigerians to vote for you again for a second term? Don’t vote for them. Performance is the best form of campaign. You achieved nothing, and that is why you are busy destroying opposition parties.” -… pic.twitter.com/Ge1KQpm1jH

— Thεό Abu (@TheoAbuAgada) April 27, 2026

WizardOfNG:
Bro, dey get shame sometimes na. Do you know how you come across with your shameless effort to always dry-clean the garments of the North?

Which North does not care whether whether "Tinubu moves the whole country to the South" when even politically conscious Non-Nigerians will tell you that the North has had a historical fixation with controlling the military and armed forces might of Nigeria?

It is common knowledge Northerners accept the mantra "might is right" to bridge the huge gap, entirely the doing of their leaders, that is their reality and has put them way behind the South in terms of education, entrepreneurial capacity, technocratic efficiency, progressive thinking and capacity for solutions provision.

Can you tell us the name of the alleged coup plotters who wanted to remove Tinubu because they feel democracy is not working for them and they must use "might is right" mantra to remove PBAT?

You take this your hate of Tinubu and Yorubas too far to the extent you say thing completely at odds with the reality of Nigeria even non-Nigerians knows.

Mere CBN functions relocated to Lagos Ndume and co began making noise. Today, under Cardoso, Nigeria central bank is the reigning world central bank of the year winner. We have never won the award.

Guy, you need to change your life and mindset. Your calibration is way off. I am no enemy of the North but I believe they must not be indulged further as they will take us all down. That is something I am not willing to accept because it is time Nigeria show North tough love or allow them finish us off.

Rather Nigeria should separate, before that happens, so they have their Islamic Sharia nation while we live as we wish safely and securely in the secular and progressive South that Northerners, courtesy of their overbearing, imperialist, hegemonist and radical leaders like Atiku, have rejected

Phewww! After all the vituperations and attempts at unity begging, most of which I didn't bother to read, the bottomline remains that Tinubu is running a Yoruba supremacy agenda, not a Southern agenda. Whenever you are called out on this, you attribute it to hate. Did the North not make Tinubu president with 5.6m votes? He lost the South, winning only 4 Yoruba states out of 17 Southern states. He now has the opportunity to create a united South but greed, cronyism, tribalism and favoritism will not allow.

Speaking of hate and seccession, why did Tinubu imprison Nnamdi Kanu while pardoning Sunday Igboho who is now an active Tinubu campaigner? Is that how to build a united South? Do these words sound familiar to you? "Go back to where you came from," "drown in the lagoon," "our Lagos, not your Lagos." Tinubu has until 2027 to split Nigeria and grant you "Yoruba nessan." Any attempt to advocate for seccession after he's voted out of power will be met with decisive force by the Nigerian state.

lawani:
Let's say Obi didn't contest. The whole Yoruba would have voted for Tinubu and the NW will be split with Tinubu having the majority simply because many Hausa especially in Kano will not vote Atiku. Without Obi, Tinubu would have won with a landslide in the combination of Hausa and Yoruba land then most other people will just vote for any other person that is not Fulani since Fulani are not the only people in the North or in Nigeria

False. Atiku had more votes in the Southwest overall than Peter Obi. Without Obi, a lot of people in the Southwest would have voted Atiku due to him having a religiously balanced ticket. Tinubu can not win the Southwest in a landslide, even in 2027. Granted, muslim-muslim hindered Tinubu in some states but it was a net gain due to the votes he got from the Muslim North. Repeating the same faith ticket will grant him no advantage this time in the muslim North but can potentially cost him votes in the Northcentral. He will likely replace Shettima for this reason.

Meanwhile, Tinubu's lackeys are busy removing the speck on Obi and the ADC's eyes while ignoring the log of wood stuck in theirs.

QuantAnalyst:
Lol. You misunderstood me. I am not with any of these guys. I am just a curious observer.

Does it matter? The question still remains, where will Tinubu's votes come from even in a 3-horse race?

agadez007:
When you hear “South” from lagos Ibadan hungry media,it’s always South west
South this,South that,these are the same people that said there was nothing like South back in 2015

Exactly. The North doesn't care whether Tinubu moves the whole country to the South. But which part of the South? Buhari was nepotistic in favour of the entire North but one man is cornering everything to his tribe while screaming "turn of the South". Even when he considers the Northcentral, he goes towards the Yoruba-speaking tribes of Kogi and Kwara only.

QuantAnalyst:
How is he going to get the 25% spread in south east? Obi might clear SE with 75%. All the SE governors are with Tinubu, which means 25% is sure for Tinubu in SE.

I am still trying to figure out Atiku's path to victory.

We are now back to governors? APC had 21 governors in 2023 but Tinubu only won 12 states. Half of those 12 were non-APC states. The question you should be asking is where will Tinubu's votes come from in 2027 if Obi runs? Will he still be counting on 5.6m votes from the North?

Parachoko:
In the Middle Belt, Asiwaju defeated your Atiku.

Go and check the votes of Asiwaju in the Middle Belt and compare it to the votes Atiku got in the Middle Belt.

The result is still online, so go and cure your Ignorance

Thanks to muslim-muslim ticket. This puts to bed all claims that the middlebelt is largely dominated by Christians. It isn't. It's more or less, evenly split with a slight tilt in favour of Muslims. In anycase, all 3 candidates got over a million votes each in the middlebelt. This wouldn't change much in 2027. The middlebelt and the Southwest (yes, the Southwest) will always be split.

Parachoko:
Asiwaju is the President today because Nigerians from the South and North voted him.

Only Asiwaju had at least 25% of the votes in more than 30 states

Muslim votes alone can't make a person the President Of Nigeria

Asiwaju and the APC will humble you and Atiku again like the way they did in 2023

No. Tinubu is president because Peter Obi's defection from the PDP balkanized traditional PDP votes into two. Tinubu only won 4 Yoruba states out of 17 Southern states. It was also the first time in a long while where we had a three-horse race. Otherwise, Tinubu would have lost the election and he knows it. This is why he doesn't want Obi to be part of the coalition and at the same time, is scared of the prospects of Obi running solo. Knowing fully well that he is still unpopular in the South and the 5.6m Northern votes are no longer a guarantee.

Parachoko:
Even if they don't leave each other, they will still lose.

Atiku can't get the kind of Votes Obi got in the South East.

Atiku can't get Majority of the Christian Votes Obi got in the Middle-Belt

Atiku and Obi splitting will just make the 2027 election easier for Asiwaju

2027 no b 2023

Tinubu didn't get any votes in the Southeast, neither did he win the Christian majority votes in the Middlebelt but he's president today because the Muslim majority votes in the North made him so with 5.6m votes. Atiku need not win the Southeast in a landslide to become president. He only needs the 25% spread to become president at first ballot because he's set to get the majority votes in 2027. Believe it or not.

seunmsg:
Aminda will soon come here to blame Tinubu for what the Arewa handle posted.

Arewa handle indeed. We know who's behind the so-called "Arewa handle". Keep creating more to make yourself happy. You deserve it. This is becoming pathetic. Should we start lifting some of the inciting posts that some so-called "Yoruba Conservative" handles post on twitter and bringing it to Nairaland to make frontpage? If Tinubu and his lackeys are this invested in seeing Obi leave the coalition, why was so much resources expended in sending him away from the LP?

Lol. The Lagos-Ibadan Expressway propaganda media machinery are on overdrive due to panic and trepidation. Tinubu and his minions are now realising that they made a mistake by frustrating Obi out of the Labour party. They are now desperate for Obi to run solo. Why not just leave him at LP where he was? They have now inadvertently united Atiku, Kwankwaso, Obi, Amaechi, Elrufai, etc under one umbrella and there are no answers for that beyond using the courts to stop the party. But that will be yet another strategic mistake.

Ndimkpurummiri:
stale
The show is between Obidients and Atikulators

For good reasons. There's no such thing as bad publicity. They have you restless and glued to your seat. Are you not entertained?

Thanks for the free promotion of the coalition. Tinubu's lackeys obviously have no other job than to be stalking twitter and lifting comments and posts of random individuals to Nairaland. There was a Forum! Just like the Ibadan Declaration a.k.a the Ides of April, you all won't see the next move of the coalition coming!

No, he won't and rightly so. Next question.

With the electoral act amendment, all talks about dollarisation of primaries are dead. Whoever thinks they are more popular than Atiku should join the race and defeat him in the direct primaries.

Odin13:
Tinubu will win 27 , if Obidients keep going this way and Arewa will give him more than 6 million votes this time and no man will check

The rate of foolishness among Obidients is nauseating
How can they be fighting their own party men with heavy insult and believe only southern Nigeria can make Obi president

The middle belt is on lock for tinubu.. same is south south , their best alignment is look northward .. yet they keep insulting everyone .. while Obi like on.. Atiku has called for peace and unity within party.. Obi has never.. he’s just enjoying the vibes .. riding on foolishness

Kwankwaso don’t have Atiku aura and numbers in north

Walai anything Obi on ticket is just handing tinubu the ticket

Obi should go and deputized Atiku to gain Amana from people first

That’s fact

He’s riding to lose and he knows

Well, sometimes I marvel at his kind of politics. Obi will get less votes than in 2023 if he runs solo. Atiku has a soft spot for the East and always chooses a Southeasterner as Vice. In 2019, he chose Obi against all odds and even courted the wrath of Ekweremadu and other Southeastern governors who wanted him to pick from among the governors. The next cycle, Atiku chose Okowa and the rest is history. Atiku may likely run along with Makinde if he wins the primaries and the hostility continues. He will give Obi the right of first refusal nonetheless.

Reminds one of Buhari who kept running with Southeasterners in Chief Chuba Okadigbo and Chief Edwin Ume-Ezeoke. They kept rejecting him until he went Southwest and ended up winning without them. They play morality and emotional politics but you don't even have to be friends to align in politics. When you play national politics, the only question that matters is "what's in it for my people?"

success1smyn:
Tinubu never campaigned in the south east in 2023? Are you high or something?

E shock you abi? He only went to Enugu where he publicly declared that if the Southeast fail to support him, they will only get bread soaked in tea. He ended up winning with 5.6m votes from the North and made good on his threat. The ADC offers an opportunity for the Southeast to come into national prominence by having one foot in the door. They can then build up from there like every other region have done. The alternative is to go solo and then continue to talk about marginalisation while their unborn children contributes in paying for loans on projects that were never sited in their region. That's not smart politics. It's self-sabotage.

Not only will it shake him, it will defeat him and he knows it.

tishbite41:
Stop lying
Atiku got 6 million plus votes with PDP structures
Apart from PDP, Atiku can't get up to 3 million votes with another party in any presidential election

PDP structures? He won more APC states than PDP states. APC had 21 governors in 2023 as "structure". How comes Tinubu only won in 12 states with half of those 12 being non-APC states? What happened to the structure?

tishbite41:
Fulani supremacist permutations
😂😂😂
It's Obi or nothing
Atiku should wait for his beloved Northern turn in 2031

No, it should rather be Obi or Tinubu. Otherwise, you will end up shortchanging yourself and your region. Make your vote count. Voter apathy is not a political strategy.

Lamasta:
Atiku just wants to be a spoiler again cos I don't see him winning the general election even if he's fortunate to win the ADC presidential ticket which I doubt he will win.......

Are you willing to bet two of your balls on it? Atiku quietly got 7m votes in 2023 when even the most irrational Northerner agreed that it was the turn of the South. Is it now that Tinubu has been tried and has failed that Atiku will now stand less chance? 5.6m Northerners voted Tinubu in 2023. That numbers have greatly shrunk since then. Guess who they will be voting in 2027. Have you seen the ADC registration numbers and their spread? Northerners are more enthusiastic about the ADC than Peter Obi's base. In politics, nothing is given on a platter. The excuse about dollarisation is no longer sellable with direct primaries. Register as a member of the party and walk the talk by voting for your preferred candidate.

nobilie:
That's exactly what will happen if ADC presents Atiku. The south will not vote a northerner in 2027 but will in 2031.
Atiku will be tagged desperate if he pushes for the ticket.

Let it happen. Heaven will not fall. If the other South (mostly the Southeast) fail to see an opportunity and seize it, that's on them. Tinubu was in the same position in 2015 but he prioritised his region by aligning with the North to oust Jonathan. The rest is history. The Southeast can vote Tinubu out of spite but don't expect him to be grateful for it. He will rather see it as a form of conquest and rightly so. Afterall, he never campaigned in the East in 2023 and probably still won't do so in 2027. There's no pathway to a Southeastern presidency that does not entail going through the VP route. Uzodinma, Soludo and Umahi are only sabotaging Obi today in order to be "considered" for VP in 2039.

nobilie:
He wants to kii ADC as he did PDP.
Make him go spend him money.

Everyone knows it's still the turn of the southern Nigeria. ADC can never win with Atiku as presidential candidate in 2027.

He convened the Coalition and invited Obi to join. How is he killing the ADC by exercising his democratic right to contest? Anyone who feels it's the turn of the South is free to vote Tinubu. Obi was seen yesterday openly fraternizing with the OK promoters at the opposition summit. That's poor politics. This gives the impression that he has openly selected a VP candidate for himself in a coalition where he is yet to even win the ticket. Kwankwaso has not personally shown as much enthusiasm as Obi has on this. At least, not openly. That's mature politics from an experienced politician who is keeping all their cards close to their chest, knowing fully well that anything can happen.

seunmsg:
ADC: Atiku/Makinde
NDC: Obi/Kwakwanso

This way, everyone is fine and no need to be fighting each other over the ADC ticket.

If this materialises, the best Tinubu can hope for is to come second. Obi will still dust him in the South and parts of the middlebelt (if he still runs on same faith ticket) while the bulk of Tinubu's 5.6m Northern votes will now go to Atiku. Obi may not do better than his 2023 numbers as he has since lost some ground, but Atiku will definitely do better but may struggle with spread. (Emphasis on "may".) Unfortunately, Kwankwaso is staying put in the ADC and will likely run for Senate to position for the Senate presidency. He has nothing to lose.

Tinubu did it first. Both locally and internationally. We also have pictures of him greeting the floor, both at Eagle Square and in Turkey.

Tinubu’s lackeys now stalk social media scavenging for any and every post by random individuals (some of whom are closet APC lackeys) to discredit the opposition. Dead on arrival. Next, it will make Nairaland frontpage with the header, "Obi's ally says so and so". Atiku and Obi as at today, are both members of the same political party.

Modified: It's on frontpage. I told you so!

boxypane:
It is quite unfortunate that we are experiencing such a time of economic hardship in this country, that is the only bold swing the North holds onto, and that's why most of us who's not Obedient seek a better option for Nigeria, else what does the North have against this current government? Absolutely nothing!!! You want to mention insecurity? Ask El-Rufai or the current Vice President...
Without been apologetic, the North is a problem to the unity and progress of Nigeria than a solution.... Take a good look at your Governors or leaders as a whole, look at your states? Look at your policies (mass marriage as an achievement).....
This phase will pass and absolutely nothing can the North do.

Oh, Elrufai was responsible for insecurity in Kaduna as governor. Who then is responsible for the insecurity in Plateau, Benue, Zamfara, etc and most recently Kwara? Their governors too right? Along with the current Vice President?

Are your Southern governors performing better than their Northern counterparts? If yes, why do you want a change? Who put Nigerians into the economic hardship you speak about?

boxypane:
This your angle of North always remembers... I hope they also remember the crimes and atrocities...
Your comparison is terribly flawed. The cases involving Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Nasir El‑Rufai are not automatically identical in facts, charges, or procedural posture. Bail decisions depend on the specific allegations, evidence, flight risk, and applicable laws, not on who someone supported politically or how long they held office.
Voluntarily presenting oneself does not guarantee bail, just as prior allegations against another politician do not create a precedent for automatic release.
Framing it as a regional debt or political payback does not hold water. The real question should be: Does the law support bail in this specific case? If yes, courts should grant it. If not, due process should continue without dragging unrelated individuals or ethnic sentiments into it.

Why not start by naming a similar case where the accused was denied bail. You can keep burying your head but the fact is that, the debt will be repaid in multiple folds. It goes beyond Elrufai. It will be permanent and pensionable so Tinubu can as well give it his best shot now that he has the chance.