₦airaland Forum

nobilie:
That's exactly what will happen if ADC presents Atiku. The south will not vote a northerner in 2027 but will in 2031.
Atiku will be tagged desperate if he pushes for the ticket.

Let it happen. Heaven will not fall. If the other South (mostly the Southeast) fail to see an opportunity and seize it, that's on them. Tinubu was in the same position in 2015 but he prioritised his region by aligning with the North to oust Jonathan. The rest is history. The Southeast can vote Tinubu out of spite but don't expect him to be grateful for it. He will rather see it as a form of conquest and rightly so. Afterall, he never campaigned in the East in 2023 and probably still won't do so in 2027. There's no pathway to a Southeastern presidency that does not entail going through the VP route. Uzodinma, Soludo and Umahi are only sabotaging Obi today in order to be "considered" for VP in 2039.

nobilie:
He wants to kii ADC as he did PDP.
Make him go spend him money.

Everyone knows it's still the turn of the southern Nigeria. ADC can never win with Atiku as presidential candidate in 2027.

He convened the Coalition and invited Obi to join. How is he killing the ADC by exercising his democratic right to contest? Anyone who feels it's the turn of the South is free to vote Tinubu. Obi was seen yesterday openly fraternizing with the OK promoters at the opposition summit. That's poor politics. This gives the impression that he has openly selected a VP candidate for himself in a coalition where he is yet to even win the ticket. Kwankwaso has not personally shown as much enthusiasm as Obi has on this. At least, not openly. That's mature politics from an experienced politician who is keeping all their cards close to their chest, knowing fully well that anything can happen.

seunmsg:
ADC: Atiku/Makinde
NDC: Obi/Kwakwanso

This way, everyone is fine and no need to be fighting each other over the ADC ticket.

If this materialises, the best Tinubu can hope for is to come second. Obi will still dust him in the South and parts of the middlebelt (if he still runs on same faith ticket) while the bulk of Tinubu's 5.6m Northern votes will now go to Atiku. Obi may not do better than his 2023 numbers as he has since lost some ground, but Atiku will definitely do better but may struggle with spread. (Emphasis on "may".) Unfortunately, Kwankwaso is staying put in the ADC and will likely run for Senate to position for the Senate presidency. He has nothing to lose.

Tinubu did it first. Both locally and internationally. We also have pictures of him greeting the floor, both at Eagle Square and in Turkey.

Tinubu’s lackeys now stalk social media scavenging for any and every post by random individuals (some of whom are closet APC lackeys) to discredit the opposition. Dead on arrival. Next, it will make Nairaland frontpage with the header, "Obi's ally says so and so". Atiku and Obi as at today, are both members of the same political party.

Modified: It's on frontpage. I told you so!

boxypane:
It is quite unfortunate that we are experiencing such a time of economic hardship in this country, that is the only bold swing the North holds onto, and that's why most of us who's not Obedient seek a better option for Nigeria, else what does the North have against this current government? Absolutely nothing!!! You want to mention insecurity? Ask El-Rufai or the current Vice President...
Without been apologetic, the North is a problem to the unity and progress of Nigeria than a solution.... Take a good look at your Governors or leaders as a whole, look at your states? Look at your policies (mass marriage as an achievement).....
This phase will pass and absolutely nothing can the North do.

Oh, Elrufai was responsible for insecurity in Kaduna as governor. Who then is responsible for the insecurity in Plateau, Benue, Zamfara, etc and most recently Kwara? Their governors too right? Along with the current Vice President?

Are your Southern governors performing better than their Northern counterparts? If yes, why do you want a change? Who put Nigerians into the economic hardship you speak about?

boxypane:
This your angle of North always remembers... I hope they also remember the crimes and atrocities...
Your comparison is terribly flawed. The cases involving Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Nasir El‑Rufai are not automatically identical in facts, charges, or procedural posture. Bail decisions depend on the specific allegations, evidence, flight risk, and applicable laws, not on who someone supported politically or how long they held office.
Voluntarily presenting oneself does not guarantee bail, just as prior allegations against another politician do not create a precedent for automatic release.
Framing it as a regional debt or political payback does not hold water. The real question should be: Does the law support bail in this specific case? If yes, courts should grant it. If not, due process should continue without dragging unrelated individuals or ethnic sentiments into it.

Why not start by naming a similar case where the accused was denied bail. You can keep burying your head but the fact is that, the debt will be repaid in multiple folds. It goes beyond Elrufai. It will be permanent and pensionable so Tinubu can as well give it his best shot now that he has the chance.

boxypane:
You could have supported your views with better scenarios or examples... You call El-rufais arrest and detention as based on trumped up charges? Why are you people always emotionally imbalanced? Go free am na.

Tinubu was also docked for far more grievous offences, but no one detained him without bail for 60 days and counting. Why is Elrufai being denied bail after voluntarily presenting himself? Can't he be tried while on bail with dignity? Is he automatically guilty now after 3 years of leaving office and after having made Tinubu president? No worries, Tinubu has since committed more atrocities since he was first docked and will certainly account for it. Northerners ALWAYS pay their debts. Time is a gentleman.

“Unless betrayed, our loyalty and fidelity to friends are permanent and pensionable. Unless reconciled, our opposition and enmity to traitors are permanent and pensionable.” - Mallam Nasir Ahmed El-Rufai

givedemwotowoto:
OP's first picture is fake.

APC Should Show Us An Arial Video of The Kebbi Rally

Look at the 2 pictures below, you’ll understand what they did:

First picture below is the original Arial picture of the event, notice how there are fewer people.

Second photo below is the AI enhanced version. It looks similar to what APC did.

Asides from the picture being fake, notice how virtually everyone in the rally was in uniforms. Nothing screams inorganic crowd like a uniformed rally in the North. They all have individual group coordinators that mobilises them for a fee.

Osebanjo:
We know sir. Good luck on your endeavors. I’m pretty sure Waziri is convinced more than ever to pick you as his running mate. But I think you’ll do better in 2031 instead really

How would he do better in 2031? Will he succeed Tinubu as president? Seyi Makinde is in the opposition. How difficult is that to understand? Did Tinubu support Olusegun Obasanjo all through his tenure? Didn't he support other candidates against OBJ? It's now Tinubu's turn and it's suddenly "Yoruba agenda" and all Southwesterners are expected to align. Even Adeleke in Osun has seen his local government funds confiscated as a pressure tactic. Is that democracy?

In politics, you have to stoop to conquer. Tinubu was in opposition and in total control of the Southwest but he had to deputise Buhari through proxy to become president. He wanted to be the VP himself but for muslim-muslim constraints. Time and event has proven that he never had any love for Buhari but Northerners still returned the favour and voted him in 2023 when the entire South didn't. Shettima is currently Vice to Tinubu and is currently "loyal", it's not subservience, it's strategy. There's no pathway to a Southeasterner becoming president that will not involve going through the VP route, whether in ADC or APC. ADC just offers a much faster and clearer line of sight with more respect. The Southeast should be strategic and seize this opportunity to become major stakeholders of the ADC now, just like the Southwest did with APC.

Obidients are fast sabotaging Peter Obi by demanding that other candidates step down for him and claiming his votes aren't transferable. That's not how to play this game of politics. Atiku equally has his supporters. He got 7m votes in 2023 at a time when Northerners gave Tinubu 5.6m votes. Much of those Tinubu's voters will no longer vote for him. Do the maths. Politics is not an emotional sport and it's not a game of superiority, or even morality. You can only appeal to people's sense of interest in politics, not pity. Power is not served on a plate. Often times, to grab power, you have to stoop to conquer.

Newsmills:
The opposite opposition members are mere noisemakers,this is pure speculative journalism,by now key government officials should find it steange to go round in abuja

If it's just noise making, can you explain why INEC came out of the blue to misinterpret a court verdict a month after the ruling on the same day that Kwankwaso decamped to the ADC and it looked like the party was fast gaining momentum? Why is he afraid of contesting in an election with other candidates?

happney65:
When Tinubu wanted to start this shenegian of wanting to be the only one on the ballot. I told people here and offline that it can't work. Because they always seem to forget what happened in the past.

Even S'eyi seems to have forgotten that before wetie e, Awolowo and others had been clamped in jail on trumped up charges of treason. And the 1965 election went even further with massive rigging.

Mama HID Awolowo in conjunction with Michael Okpara established UPGA. while rigged results were being broadcasted by Western Nigeria TV which had the Akintola's in charge, UPGA was broadcasting the real results at Awo's Oke Bola House in Ibadan.

The following year,A bitter coup happened which lead to the Nigerian civil War

Tinubu should try and continue,I want to see something. He should try it make we see.

Those who never learn from history are condemned to repeat it. Already, we can see similar patterns manifesting with the incarceration without bail of respected Northern figures and opposition voices. The only reason most Nigerians are calm is because they are hoping they can legally make their voices heard by speaking through their ballots. Attempting to deny Nigerians of that opportunity may set up a wave of chain reactions that no one can predict.

In politics, you have to stoop to conquer. Tinubu was in opposition and in total control of the Southwest but he had to deputise Buhari through proxy to become president. Time and event has proven that he never had any love for Buhari but Northerners still returned the favour and voted him in 2023 when the entire South didn't. Shettima is currently Vice to Tinubu and pretends to be "loyal", it's not subservience, it's strategy. There's no pathway to a Southeasterner becoming president that will not involve going through the VP route, whether in ADC or APC. ADC just offers a much faster and clearer line of sight. The Southeast should be strategic and seize this opportunity to become major stakeholders of the ADC now, just like the Southwest did with APC.

Obidients are fast sabotaging Peter Obi by demanding that other candidates step down for him and claiming his votes aren't transferable. That's not how to play this game of politics. Atiku equally has his supporters. He got 7m votes in 2023 at a time when Northerners gave Tinubu 5.6m votes. Much of those Tinubu's voters will no longer vote for him. Do the maths. Politics is not an emotional sport and it's not a game of superiority, or even morality. You can only appeal to people's sense of interest in politics, not pity. Power is not served on a plate. Often times, to grab power, you have to stoop to conquer.

Omowale2023:
If ADC fields a Northern, APC has won and nobody will take them serious in 2031, they will declare them a Northern party instead of a national party. This is the more reason ADC can't afford to mess this 2027 up, all of us will learn politics together.

Omowale, you did not tell us where Tinubu's votes will come from. Is it from the Southsouth, Southeast or just the Southwest? Don't tell us you are still counting on the 5.6m votes that Northerners gave Tinubu in 2023. Did you see the turnout at Seyi Tinubu's City Boy Southsouth convention in Edo state yesterday?

DomPerignon:
Typical.

As I said, I can't wait for the implosion that will happen when Atiku emerges and does not pick your Obi.

Even Amaechi and Kwankwasso will quit the party and return back to APC .

Unfortunately, out of a combination of greed, fear, and trepidation, Tinubu has dribbled himself to make that impossible by amending the electoral act. Not before decriminalising certificate forgery and age falsification, though.

DomPerignon:
Same Tinubu, I should remind you supported your Atiku and gave him the ACN ticket to contest before the merger with CPC with Buhari.

That was because Atiku had earlier saved his hide after much begging when Obasanjo was taking over the entire Southwest. The most undemocratic behaviour we have ever seen under civilian government have happened when Southwesterners are in power. Is this a coincidence or by design?

DomPerignon:
Obidients, una dey see wetin Atiku dey plan for una?

Your whole existence on Nairaland is practically about Peter Obi and Obidients. Hardly a day goes by without you creating at least 2 threads about Obi and Obidients. Worry about Tinubu, Obidients can take care of themselves.

Fear and trepidation just gripped Aso Rock!

Disgusting. APC are doing too much.

DomPerignon:
You are banking on their hate and bigotry towards the tribe and person of the incumbent but fail to see that without their unifying bigot-n-chief, they will be a headless mob and do as they please and vote any one and anything other than Tinubu.

Atiku will even do worse than Tinubu in the SE as they will see him as the one who denied them their most coveted Ibo presidency.

If it's against your tribesman, it's hate and bigotry but if you do the same to others, it's master strategy. Was it hate and bigotry that made Tinubu travel all the way to Daura to convince a retired Buhari to come use his popularity to send his Southern brother, Jonathan packing? He even refused the Speaker position and other ministerial positions heading to the Southwest just so he can sell the marginalisation story across the Southwest.

DomPerignon:
So why are the likes of Atiku not honoring that agreement?

Is this not the same reason that saw PDP implode and instead of blaming Atiku you all shifted your blames on Wike who was only demanding for equity.

Did Atiku sign any pact with Tinubu? You are funny. So all Nigerians in all opposition parties should step down and support Tinubu right?

DomPerignon:
It is up to the substantive winner of the primaries to decide who he will pick as his VP candidate. The VP nominee has no say in the matter other than to accept or refuse.

I know you know that your Atiku has since ruled out picking Obi as his running mate and this statement you made is just to massage Obi's mob supporters.

All these permutations on power shifts remain permutations.

Atiku will be doing two terms if he wins the elections and he will have little or no say on who will replace him.

And why should the north continue with the rotation when Atiku has discarded it?

What stops a northerner from replacing Atiku?

Same reason that made Northerners keep their word to vote Tinubu in 2023, thereby making him president. This speech by Elrufai at Arewa House in 2023 resonated with a lot of Northerners and inspired 5.6m Northerners to queue up to vote Tinubu, against their son, Atiku. How did Tinubu repay the favour? Where is Elrufai today? Good or bad, the North remembers and they ALWAYS pay their debts.

MAJOR THROWBACK!

Yet some ingrates say…………… 🤣 pic.twitter.com/Y2KrfifaUp

— Mal. Imran U. Wakili (PULLO) 👑 #iSTANDWITHELRUFAI (@IU_Wakilii) April 17, 2026

DomPerignon:
If Wike faction wins, the PDP will endorse Tinubu.

You should be more worried about what the deranged mob will do to scuttle Atiku at the polls.

I see them doing a massive boycott or voting massively for an obscure candidate .

There will be massive protest votes by the Obidients.

You're wrong. At least half of the Southeast will vote ADC no matter the outcome of the primaries. That will be enough. The North will take care of the rest. Tinubu should rather be worried that majority of Southerners will rather observe voter apathy than vote him. Wike's faction of PDP supporting Tinubu adds nothing to the equation.

DomPerignon:
Be rest assured that PDP will be fielding a candidate.

You should be more worried on the fallout when your principal, Atiku gets the ticket and does not pick Obi as his running mate.

The massive blowback from this will be interesting to watch as Obidients will go full rampage.

If Wike's PDP wins at Supreme court and fields a candidate, that's a minus for Tinubu as the candidate will definitely be a Southerner. On the other hand, fielding a Northerner will kill every talking point about "turn of the South". The ball is in your court. If Atiku wins the ticket, Obi will have the right of first refusal. His supporters will rather prefer he doesn't accept the VP slot, even if he supports the ticket. This will pave the way for Makinde to Vice Atiku with power heading to the Southeast next.

opes:
Makinde worked for Tinubu in 2023, likewise APC supported his re-election.

https://independent.ng/folarins-camp-in-disarray-as-tinubu-support-groups-back-makindes-re-election-bid/



https://www.google.com/amp/s/thewhistler.ng/oyo-i-never-blamed-tinubu-for-my-defeat-says-apc-candidate-folarin/amp/

Oga, Makinde would have won his re-election with or without Tinubu. Infact, supporting Tinubu costed him as his supporters ended up voting APC candidates as Senators due to lack of clarity. Tinubu couldn't even return the favour. He asked Makinde to nominate a ministerial candidate only to neglect his choice to appoint his political rival. Same thing he did to Elrufai.

DomPerignon:
Which opposition parties?

You will be surprised that APGA, LP, SDP and a host of others will adopt Tinubu as their candidate.

That is their prerogative, isn't it? That's the beauty of democracy as long as they can get their supporters to key into the Tinubu project. But Tinubu is rather interested in using might to run unopposed.

I urge all Obidients to manage their expectations and be open to all possible scenarios. To choose a Vice, you first have to secure the ticket first. Kwankwaso is interested in contesting for Senate and is positioning to become Senate President. Things are moving very fast. No time for complacency and baby politics. Get in or vote Tinubu in peace! The ADC and authentic PDP have committed to fielding only one presidential ticket in 2027.

opes:
In 2019, the now king Ladoja convinced 5 political parties to collapsed their structures for Makinde and their candidates dropped their ambitions to support him. Sharafadeen Alli was among them, as seen in the picture next to Makinde.
In 2023, APC supported him based on the alliance he had with Tinubu to win re-election.

False. In 2023, he supported Tinubu through the G5 but Tinubu and Wike ended up betraying and humiliating him as is typical. He was the one who did Tinubu a favour in 2023, otherwise, Tinubu would have lost Oyo like he lost Lagos and Osun. Seyi Makinde is fully incharge of Oyo and the people love him. His anointed candidate will defeat Adelabu and Sharafudeen any day and any time. Tinubu is not that popular in the Southwest as you lot like to pretend. Plus, Tinubu never supported Obasanjo, his fellow Yoruba brother, simply because he was in the opposition. Why expect Makinde and other Southwestern opposition figures to now support Tinubu? Makinde has scores to settle.

Svoboda:
Sometimes I feel Atiku should team up with Makinde as his running mate, while Obi contests under a different platform. This will get Tinubu effectively stranded, because he can only win the SW outright. The SE will be a no go area, while struggling in the SS, as Obi will eat up valuable votes in that region. The north would Atikus play ground of course.

You are right. Obi/Kwankwaso contesting as a third force will do serious damage to Tinubu's chances, unlike in 2023. Obi will still defeat him overall across the rest of the South but this time, there will be no 5.6m Northern votes for Tinubu. Those votes will largely go to an Atiku/Makinde combination, adding to his 7m margins in 2023. This is why Tinubu is desperate to deny Obi a platform because that's the only way they can attempt to sell the "Southern unity" card. The sitting arrangement at the summit is already speaking volumes. Overall, an Atiku/Obi combination is still the best combo but not the only one.

hegelian:
this does nothing but buttress the point he was trying to make..elevating people like this to highest offices is an insult tp the teeming people of intelligence, exposure and education sagacity of the region and the country at large.. we should not be defending mediocrity all in the name of defending tribe or religion...

Unlike Hon. Adigun Abass who is on his second stint as a federal Legislator, Northerners have never voted Nafiu Bala for any position. Along with 7 others, he was the regional Vice Chairman of a third rate political party that was the ADC before it was adopted by the coalition. Who elevated him?

Every critiscism he ever made against Sani Abacha and Goodluck Jonathan, was actually him telling on himself.