₦airaland Forum

Kobicove:
What you people should know is this - whether Atiku steps down or not he will not be president in 2027!

Who's going to stop him?

And after Atiku steps down, Amaechi and Tinubu will subsequently step down right? Atiku got 7m votes in 2023, an election where Northerners gave Tinubu 5.6m votes. Go figure.

KosiGee:
Who the hell is Rotimi Amaechi? You are overestimating the man.

Dan Amanan Daura, Keeper of Trust. Administrator extraordinaire, one time speaker of Rivers state and president of all speakers of Houses of assembly in Nigeria, two-time governor of Rivers state with visible infrastructure and achievements, Wike's boss, two-time campaign director of President Muhammadu Buhari with 100% success rate, minister of transportation with Lagos-Ibadan Railway, Kaduna-Abuja Railway, Warri-Itakpe railway, Lekki deep-sea port, Baro port, several inland dry ports, etc in his portfolio. First runner-up in the APC primaries that Tinubu won to become president. Amaechi no small o. He has paid his dues and he is him!

Since when did having a viable opposition party become a sin? Why is a self-proclaimed master strategist and "democracy fighter" hell-bent on destroying all opposition parties using apparatus of state and our common patrimony?

aswani:
Why would people join a political party that doesn't align with their views?

Your Atiku changes Party anyhow, he has even gone back to one he left before. This is wrong, every politician should have their political leaning and find a party that has like minds to join.

Not go round jumping from one to the other monkeys on trees in the jungle.

It is wrong and exposes the propensity to loot in government rather than serve the people.

Is that why your tin-god is paying governors to decamp to his party? Is that the political ideology of his party?

"I know of States that have received over 500 billion Naira from the Federal Government as palliative, but I have never received anything.

I think the reason I don't get it is because I'm not in APC.

-Dauda Lawal, Zamfara State Governor pic.twitter.com/QvfR8olibA

— Arewa Source (@Arewa_Source) February 17, 2026

aswani:
The denial was cleverly coated.

The report was that some of the people in ADC, might be from the new KO faction, were looking to decamp, not the party being in talks to link up to PRP.

By the way oga Bolaji, which ADC faction are you denying anything on behalf of?

A political party is not a cult. Anyone is free to join or decamp at anytime they wish. It was Tinubu who criminalised defection after primaries in the Electoral Act in order to forestall the inevitable implosion of APC.

Fake news! Debunked already. Hakeem Baba Ahmed is Tinubu's mole. ADC is intact and will be on the ballot come 2027.

https://punchng.com/adc-denies-talks-with-prp-insists-coalition-remains-intact/

When Elrufai made the assertion that 100 billion naira was being deducted illegally every month from our revenues, it looked like he was just being a rabble rouser. He has now been vindicated again for the umpteenth time.

Tambuwal already told us what happened to the budgets. We now know why they barred MDAs from making payments to contractors and re-routed all payments to emanate from the office of the accountant-general. They will still be here to celebrate the "bold reforms".

Counterigbolies:
so one day ibos will defend melaye, malami, el rufai n co?

On the case of dino, this is his constituency project ooo

Oya rate him yourself

They were all in the APC and helped make Tinubu president. If Yorubas rode on their backs to get power, why shouldn't Igbos?

yomi531:
This 5.6 million Northern votes u guys keep singing wasn't gotten from NW and NE alone. Hope u know. Middle belt votes is part of it. Make una allow us hear word abeg. North this north that. Haba

Does the fact make you uncomfortable? Point out the part of the "middlebelt" that voted Tinubu in 2023 and you will still arrive at the same conclusion. Tinubu won only 4 Yoruba states out of 17 Southern states, losing woefully to Peter Obi. The North made him President.

Lithiumite:
Dino should show us how many classes he built in his fed constituency and as a senator, how many farm machinery he bought, how many PHC he improved even with basic solar power.........its Peter obi is blame for all this, if he hadn't joined that coalition of disgruntled politicians people like Dino would have been long forgotten.

Was that ever part of his job description as a Legislator? Dino Melaye's role was only to legislate and to make laws that will be beneficial to his constituency and Nigerians. Score him on that and not on the number of roads and classrooms he built. Those are responsibilities of the executive. Can judges and other members of the judiciary be also rated on the number of schools they built? That's an anomaly.

@topic, it's clear that the master tragedist is battling serious esteem issues and camouflages it with pomposity and megalomania. It's a not-so-subtle sign of someone battling with serious impostor syndrome.

Racoon:
"The NASS under the Tinubu government has decriminalized criminality by allowing forgery by giving us an electoral law that states that forgery and making false claims in electoral documents is no longer a punishable electoral offence." - Rauf Aregbesola

Hard truth. Tinubu practically amended the electoral law solely to boost his own chances and sabotage opponents and other political parties but he might just have shot himself in the foot. For example, abolishing indirect primaries in favour of conscensus will turn back around to hurt the APC more. Just like criminalising defection to other parties by aggrieved party members. It will only ensure disgruntled individuals stay behind and sabotage the party.

Akpakomiza2:
Tinubu for the first time since 1999 has increased capital expenditure to 45%

Are you having a laugh? He just signed the 2026 budget into law and 2025 budget implementation was extended to June 2026. Contractors from 2025 are still unpaid. He can extend capital expenditure to 90%, but it's all on paper. Where is the money?

Lithiumite:
Whats wrong with what uba sani said,you expectvthem to keep deluding themselves that adc isn't a threath as you northerners deceived gej in 15.......el rufai's shoes in kaduna you mean!! We await ashiru to come win kaduna fir el rufai and lets see how much the center will be able to hold between the 2 if he wins.......el rufai will be dimistufied even further post 27......buhari was the last of them after the sadauna and there can't be any such again atleast not with this current crop of northern leaders.

I will be more worried with Tinubu's chances in the South. Obi handed him his behind on a plate in 2023 across the South, including in Lagos. It was the North that bailed him out and there is no clear evidence that he now enjoys Southern support across board. If Uba Sani is letting you know that the messaging is failing in the North, then you should be very worried. He and Ribadu were supposed to fill in for Elrufai, weren't they? The messaging didn't fail in 2023 despite cash crunch and all, why is it failing now? Lessons! Sometimes, the person delivering the message is as important as the message itself. Time is a gentleman.

Akpakomiza2:
Tinubu victory over Atiku in north central wasn't marginal, stop disgracing yourself. He won Atiku by a margin of 800k more than the winning margins in NE or NW. It will grow bigger this time. Their suport for Tinubu is due to his liberalism, his fight against insecurity esp benue plateau axis and allaying fears of marginalization and not because of any vp ticket

Tinubu's margins in the NC in 2023 was because of muslim-muslim ticket, not inspite of it. The Christians in the NC largely voted Obi while Muslims splitted their votes between Atiku and Tinubu. It is naïve to think Tinubu will now win the Christian votes in the NC while running on a muslim-muslim ticket in 2027, despite failing to solve the insecurity in the region and his latest gaffe in Plateau.

Lithiumite:
You are obviously an el rufai lackey,which i agree you have a right to.......el rufai's results out of kaduna was woeful considering how much you all arrogate tinubu's votes to his perceived influence.......kano is equally as cosmopolitan as kaduna and ganduje still bested your el rufai despite Kwankwaso on the ballot......you claim other parts of the NW as been conservative politically, what has changed in that regard now.....wamakko and the apc lost sokoto by less than 2% despite being a pdp state,badaru won jigawa against atiku and yari,matawalle,shettima,shinkafi and malafa won zamfara by over 50%......buhari lost katsina by less than 10k votes,thats still very good considering the opposition candidate was a northerner,even Bagudu did far better than your el rufai......the last i checked all of these people and many too numerous to mention didn't have same entitlement mentality as your el rufai.....what positions is wamakko holding, yari,shettima,badaru and ganduje were removed but you don't see them turning renegade against their party as el rufai.

All northen govs swore to the heavens how much they loved gej and guaranteed him victory but alas their real intentions manifested at the polls.....same thing el rufai's antics can be aptly interpreted as for the 23 polls.

Talking about betrayal not being appreciated in the north,el rufai himself typifies that with his treatment of atiku post 07 till a few months ago he sulked up back to him.....I bet that can be excused because its brother against brother but tinubu's head should hang on spike because he is a southerner......nigerians are wiser and they can see through your charade.

Lol. This was Uba Sani yesterday clearly saying that the "messaging is not there" when talking about Tinubu's campaign in the North but I'm sure you're well informed on the matter than he is. Only Northern APC faithfuls can tell you about the challenges they face in trying to sell Tinubu in the North but you can continue to grandstand. The reality is that APC is struggling to fill Elrufai's shoes in the North. They are lacking an inspiring Northern figure.

APC must tell its story as 'opposition plots anarchy' - Uba Sani pic.twitter.com/o9GVs8ClKI

— Premium Times (@PremiumTimesng) April 17, 2026

Is Nigeria gradually becoming a police state? Welcome to George Orwell's 1984.

Lithiumite:
On your last point about tinubu's margin in the SW,i believe you joking, right? If not,you obviously arent having the correct 23 data......tinubu lost lagos and many cosmopolitan towns in the south due majorly to the APC's anti people policies at the time such as currency seizures,deliberatr power shortages,fuel hoarding connected to those in Buhari’s govt opposed to tinubu's candidacy.....its open knowledge, atiku and obi got a lot of support from the cabal in aso rock......all that is no more in 27.....the opposition benefited majorly from protest votes which was more manifest in obi's results.

The north Central votes obi got were majorly against the Muslim Muslim ticket of the apc which wouldn't be much of a factor in 27 as tge NC is seeing a balancing out of key strategic positions and policies in favor of the region.

Structure!! You can never overlook this and you can ignore at your own peril......no party in Nigeria today has that compared to the ruling party, PDP Structure got atiku so far in 23 but thats no more in 27 and you know therein lies tinubu's strength and he has always had a well oiled mechanism to make thus as efficient as possible.

Current economic realities are obviously against tinubu,I would atleast not be foolish to write that off but what I know for a certain is that it isn't always sacrosanct in the minds of voters as it didn't stop buhari in 19 and infact didn't help gej in 15.....many voters are susceptible to patronage and you did be foolish to ignore the efficacy of this in every election and everyone knows where that power lies at the moment.

I flipped your question back at you and you suddenly have justification as to why Tinubu failed to deliver himself in Lagos. Why then did you expect Elrufai to deliver Kaduna to Tinubu when Tinubu couldn't deliver himself in a state he governed for 8 years? If Elrufai's contribution is overrated because he didn't deliver Kaduna to Tinubu, why shouldn't we also call Tinubu overrated? Was the naira policy only a factor in Lagos? Have you forgotten Elrufai went against the Villa cabals and openly sued the Buhari government to court over the naira policy, thereby courting many enemies in the North as a result? I don't know about the SW but being ungrateful is not a virtue in other regions. I daresay that Elrufai succeeded in flipping the script and made the naira scarcity a net positive for Tinubu because he helped demonstrate that Tinubu was being victimised. Anyways, time is a gentleman.

As to your other points, I already addressed that. Tinubu's perceived gains in the Northcentral will be easily undone if he goes ahead with a muslim-muslim ticket in 2027. Plus, all candidates will get their share of the NC no matter what happens. No single candidate can win the region in a landslide.

Lithiumite:
How come your el rufai only got 29% of his kaduna's votes for tinubu as a seating gov lower than bauchi a pdp state.....el rufai got the lowest margin for tinubu as an apc state just second to Gombe which can be excused for being in same region atiku is from........el rufai got the lowest margin from the NW,lower than sokoto a pdp state at the time.......you can equally pretend not to take note of the oblivious fact all tinubu's allies in the NW are still with him,how many can atiku boast of in the south with any meaningful influence except obi or maybe aregbesola.....obi's votes are considered lost already if he isn't the principal candidate,obi cannot give anyone 100k votes if he isn't on the ballot as the principal candidate, anambra and fct council elections proved that beyond doubt.....aregbe on the other hand will be overwhelmed by the etnic card tinubu's people will pull thereby having pretty insignificant impact to atiku's course.

For the same reason that Tinubu lost Lagos. In the North, Kaduna is perhaps the only cosmopolitan state just like Lagos due to its urbanity and high population of Christians and other settlers from other tribes. This is unlike other Northern states that are very conservative. Despite this, Kaduna remains the capital of Northern politics and it sets the pace for other states. In 2023, Atiku (an influential Northerner in his own right) got 500k+ votes while Tinubu got 400k votes and Kwankwaso got 150k votes. Southern Kaduna revolted against muslim-muslim ticket and largely voted Obi who got 200k votes. Fastforward to 2027 and Atiku, Obi, Kwankwaso and Elrufai are now in the same party. Numbers don't lie.

Now, having said that, tell us why a combination of Sanwo-olu, Gbajabiamila, Fashola, Obasa and Tinubu failed to deliver Lagos despite Tinubu being on the ballot. Is it because they were not influential in their states and their influence was overrated? Why do you expect the people of Kaduna to love Tinubu more than he's loved at home? Aside Lagos and maybe Ibadan, what other SW state delivered a higher margin of votes to Tinubu than he got in Kaduna?

Lifestone:
Sorry, which North?

The North that gave Tinubu 5.6m votes. Traditionally, the NE and NW vote one-way but in 2023, they altered their voting pattern and splitted their votes 3-ways between Atiku, Tinubu and Kwankwaso to accommodate Tinubu. Northcentral will always get split no matter the permutation and in 2023, all three major candidates got over a million votes each from the region. Tinubu's win in the NC was marginal. The Christians in the North largely voted Obi in 2023 and while this may appear to have changed, it remains dicey for Tinubu and may quickly change if he goes ahead with a muslim-muslim ticket while other parties balance their ticket. The perceived support Tinubu currently enjoys among Christians in the NC is because he has tacitly implied that he will be conceding the VP ticket to the middlebelt come 2027.

BATified2023:
so it's atiku that will save Nigeria?

Same atiku that obj describe in his book "my watch"


Just tell me u can't stand a Yoruba man as president I will understand but don't come with the bullshit that atiku will save Nigeria

OBJ also described Tinubu with the below in the same "My Watch", but you continue to support him. Are you doing so because he's your tribesman?

Basic123:
Very flawed bias analysis,well,comfirmation bias and optimism bias are hallmarks of Politicians characters.So,I dont blame you.
You only considered pro-Tinubu factors in 2022 that has become Anti-Tinubu factors in 2027.You didnt considered Anti-Tinubu factors in 2022 that are now pro-Tinubu factors.No two Election have similar characters.
Next time be more holistic and objective in your analysis.

Once upon a time, Nairaland used to be filled with intellectuals who will do justice to topics by airing theor own opinions and engaging in robust debates. These days, users rather resort to posting rethorics, attacking posters for their opinions and resorting to insults without engaging the topic. It's the bane of the average Nigerian youth today. Intellectualism is dead.

seunowa:
How many number of votes could El-rufai garner for Ahmed Tinubu in 2023 presidential election. I even have regard for Ganduje during the last presidential election than El-rufai that has been decimated.....

Typical. Nothing surprising. Do you also have regard for Obi than you do for Sanwo-olu, Gbajabiamila, Fashola, Obasa and Tinubu himself? Because they couldn't deliver Lagos despite Tinubu being on the ballot. Tinubu only won 3 states in the entire North, yet, he got the highest margin of votes from the region. The hardwork done was not in "delivering" a state. Tinubu couldn't do that for himself! He was able to garner the votes he did in the North due to messaging from the likes of Elrufai like the below at Arewa House. But as expected, he was repaid with treachery and betrayal. There's no one currently doing the "messaging" for Tinubu in the North today and for good reason. No worries, Ganduje will deliver the North to Tinubu come 2027.

MAJOR THROWBACK!

Yet some ingrates say…………… 🤣 pic.twitter.com/Y2KrfifaUp

— Mal. Imran U. Wakili (PULLO) 👑 #iSTANDWITHELRUFAI (@IU_Wakilii) April 17, 2026

zoedew:
That will be okay for Tinubu fans. Votes will go into fractions.

If Tinubu wanted that, he would not have invested so much in having Wike destroy the LP and PDP who already zoned their tickets to the South.

GeneralOuki:
What has this got to do with Obi?

They always stoke ethnic tensions close to elections to promote their candidate. They have no other strategy. Tinubu's betrayal of the North and treatment of Elrufai and co is hardly different from what Op is trying to propagate. Ironsi, Balewa, Awolowo, and co were once contemporary leaders in their time, representing the interest of their people.

Let's do a simple logical mathematics, Atiku got 7m votes in 2023 at a time when a substantial number of Northern electorates, thanks to Elrufai, agreed that power should head South. This led to 5.6m Northerners voting Tinubu. Fastforward to 2027, with Elrufai under persecution and the performance of Tinubu, a substantial amount of these 5.6m voters will no longer be voting Tinubu. It's a no-brainer that most will now vote Atiku. Atiku will only need marginal votes in the South to be home and dry if he clinches the ticket. In other words, Atiku has barely lost a voter who voted him in 2023 but even if he has in some Southern states like Akwa Ibom, Osun and Bayelsa, he has potentially gained more from Northerners who voted Tinubu in 2023.

In contrast, Tinubu has encroached into Obi's base in the NC, SS and SW. Even though he remains unpopular across board. It is clear that he has not gained enough to make up for his lost Northern votes because he has failed to consolidate the Southern electorates genuinely, except getting their elites to his side. Obi has also lost some ground if we are being honest but he remains the undisputed owner of the South if he's on the ballot but he may not pull enough numbers or find enough radicalism to protect his votes in the South. Plus, unlike in 2023, not many outside the SE will be inclined to go vote Obi again just to prove a point if nothing changes.

An Atiku/Obi ticket remains the strongest combination till date. There are also talks about the NDC courting Jonathan to throw his heart in the ring. This further complicates things for Obi and Tinubu.

Bala Mohammed may join the NDC along with Seyi Makinde. Goodluck Jonathan is also being courted to fly the party's ticket. He may choose Bala as Vice. Jonathan on the ballot will serve as a third force and will further complicate things for Tinubu in the SS and NC.

SadiqBabaSani:
Atiku had some supporters who believed he was a better upgrade to Buhari, but with that interview and several others of the past, Atiku has shown he has no policy direction better than the present Borrower in Chief of Aso Rock i.e President Tinubu

Peter Obi's stance on corruption stands him out but I consider he doesn't have the stamina to deal with the political Hyenas of Nigeria.

Amaechi doesn't have the die hard followers of Peter Obi, hence it will be difficult to gather enough support across the country to sack Tinubu

Let's do a simple logical mathematics, Atiku got 7m votes in 2023 at a time when a substantial number of Northern electorates, thanks to Elrufai, agreed that power should head South. This led to 5.6m Northerners voting Tinubu. Fastforward to 2027, with Elrufai under persecution and the performance of Tinubu, a substantial amount of these 5.6m voters will no longer be voting Tinubu. It's a no-brainer that most will now vote Atiku. Atiku will only need marginal votes in the South to be home and dry if he clinches the ticket. In other words, Atiku has barely lost a voter who voted him in 2023 but even if he has in some Southern states like Akwa Ibom, Osun and Bayelsa, he has potentially gained more from Northerners who voted Tinubu in 2023.

In contrast, Tinubu has encroached into Obi's base in the NC, SS and SW. Even though he remains unpopular across board. It is clear that he has not gained enough to make up for his lost Northern votes because he has failed to consolidate the South genuinely among the electorates, except getting their elites to his side. Obi has also lost some ground if we are being honest but he remains the undisputed owner of the South if he's on the ballot but he may not pull enough numbers or find enough radicalism to protect his votes in the South. Plus, unlike in 2023, not many outside the SE will be inclined to go vote Obi again just to prove a point if nothing changes.

An Atiku/Obi ticket remains the strongest combination till date. There are also talks about the NDC courting Jonathan to throw his heart in the ring. This further complicates things for Obi and Tinubu.

seunmsg:
Another fantasy budget that can’t be funded.

No issues. We will simply shift 2026 implementation to 2027. Rinse and repeat. The bold reforms are working.

Gunayo:
Medicine after death. It will not work. The south must complete 8years. Obi/Kwankwaso is what we want anything outside this Tinubulation continues.

The problem with your postulations is that the rest of the South will rather observe voter apathy than vote Tinubu. He never won the South in 2023 and will still not win it convincingly in 2027 even if Obi is not on the ballot. A 3-horse race in 2027 will be detrimental to Tinubu's chances this time. Unlike in 2023 when the North made him President with 5.6m votes. This is why Obi was frustrated out of the LP.