grandstar: Paul Kagame isn't an economist and must have been dazzled by the UK, US and EU's ability to print money and "get away with it".
Rwanda sadly isn't in the same league as these countries. Inflation in these countries or regions rarely exceeds 2% and with Covid19 inspired recession, inflation is basically dead in the water. A print run will not lead to high inflation as inflationary pressure is either low or non-existent. With the print run, consumer price inflation may not rise above 2%. However, there may be asset price inflation which is usually considered benign and it improves business confidence and encourages a cycle of investment.
The real downside is the export of inflation. A lot of this money will flow outside and will surely lift the price of commodities and other assets worldwide as experienced in the series of quantitative easing used in the UK, US and eventually the EU in the late 2000s and the 2010s so as to recover from the Great Recession.
Rwanda is projected to have an inflation rate of 5% this year. Were it to print money, inflation will easily hit double-digits, hurting the poor. This will also mess up the country's present brilliant economic record.
Truth be told, 3rd world nations will need a bailout. Nigeria's cash flow problem is temporary as the price of oil will recover again. It may take about 6-8 months for prices to get back to their previous levels and this will be largely due to oil cuts from OPEC member states. Global economic growth will take some time to pick up as consumer confidence will be low due to uncertainties about whether the virus has been defeated by the populace
The US, UK and perhaps the EU will or pump prime and some have done so already. Japan has already announced a massive sum. China might encourage its bank to provide tons of credit but China might be constrained due to the huge debt overload it already carries.
For Nigeria, the sensible thing might be to seek a foreign loan. $10b is the sum that comes to mind. This should tide the country through this trying period. I see no other way out.
You said Nigeria and other 3rd world countries may need another bailout or another round of bambiala? From whom? Where is that bailout money coming from? The same source that never runs dry abi? Later they will ask for another debt forgiveness. This is what I was saying. For how long will this continue? Same way America that holds more debt than any other country in the world keeps bailing out its big corporations and banks to the tune of hundreds of billions (by just printing money out of thin air) without it affecting its economy even after writing off those bailouts later on; bailouts that never get paid back. But you say Nigeria should not even try the same. All these voodoo economics shrouded in esoteric mombo jumbo has never and will never favour us in this country, not because we are the only ones that don't play by the rules/book, but because it was designed to keep us in a perpetual bambiala state. Inside life.
Dtribeless: I appreciate your attempt at a reasonable conversation. I'd like you to answer a basic question on how it will work: Will more paper not be chasing the same goods, inflating prices? US dollars, pounds, yuan and Euro are in demand (US dollars full politicians across the world soak-away so can't inflate); that's why they can do that. It's called Eurodollar: dollars outside the US. I'd appreciate a measured and respectable conversation like we've had so far. LMK.
I like the direction of Kagame's suggestion. Though I don't know how workable it would be under a democratic dispensation due to the wrangling and divisive nature of democratic systems and politics. In my opinion, the likes of China and Singapore couldn't have developed as quickly as they did under a liberal democratic setting. Even Hitler had to appropriate dictatorial and authoritarian powers to achieve everything he was able to economically during his time. Dubai that everyone touts as a model of development today is also a product of a dictatorship. It just seems like the Caucasians are the only ones that tend to attain commendable development under democratic systems. At least that is my personal observation.
I think development can only come in a restructured Nigeria, and under a 'benevolent dictatorship' setting And if our economic fortunes continues to dim with he whole COVID-19 situation, I see Nigeria restructuring by choice (or by force on the near future) even.
My proposition would be that the geopolitical units of the country draw up developmental plans that will be hinged on mass education in STEM, and human capital development. And begin increasing local capacity so that there would be less dependence on foreigners for the simplest of tasks and projects. An aggressive project of modernization based on local capacity should be embarked upon. We already have very educated and capable Nigerians that can be called upon, that have enough expertise to make this happen if the will is there. Just like the Chinese, we need to become more self-reliant.
Dtribeless: China can do that because it's a Producer economy and it's currency is in demand, albeit mostly in Asia. Only the US & Europe & China, can pull that at the moment. If we do that, like Zimbabwe, bread will cost N100,000.
Did China ask the permission of the West before becoming a 'producer economy'? When China started taking its economic destiny in its hands, didn't the Western institutions such as the IMF and World bank expect them to fail in the process?
When China embarked on ambitious developmental projects to multiply its GDP and productivity, did the Europeans and Americans give them the go-ahead? No. They just damned them and did what they had to do to get their people working and productive, thereby dramatically increasing their GDP in the process and creating value, and all the while the West was predicting their doom and shaking their heads from afar based on their own invented standards contained in their 'economic notebooks'.
Isn't the same China a respected country today? How do you think China would have fared if it had put its destiny in the hands of the IMF and World Bank? I bet you they would be nowhere near where they are today!
Dtribeless: Because their currency is in demand. Who wants Naira besides Benin and Togo. Guys, open an economics notebook. What can you buy with Naira outside Nigeria? You can't say this for other dollar & Euro and Swiss Francs. So if you print and print, you will just inflate local prices and it's back to square one. Nigeria must produce more of what it needs locally; that way it can print currency. As long as we buy foreign, purchasing in dollars, we can't print.
Which of the economics notebooks? The big powers have been breaking the economic rules and getting away with, but Africans dare not try it. America is more indebted than any other nation of the earth, yet their money no dey ever finish. Why?? Left to the West, the Chinese would never have risen to prominence economically in spite of their communist history, yet China rose to its level of development without the World Bank and IMF breathing down their necks.
Look, the economic notebook model you are touting was rigged to never work for anyone except those that wrote it (and even they break those rules yet they never suffer any consequences). Hitler didn't have to toe the line of the WW1 Victors to lift up Germany from the ruins. He simply rewrote the rules and made it work for Germany.
My point is that all these years of IMF and World Bank inspired economic policies have not lifted Nigerians and Africans out of poverty so your textbook economics will not cut it for us. We need other solutions.
I admire the boldness and innovativeness of the idea. Africa needs to find homegrown solutions to its problems if it is to ever really develop at scale. The IMF/World bank model has never helped us. Upon all the borrowing we have been borrowing since 'independence', we still aren't developing appreciably enough. In the end we will go and still beg for 'debt relief' from the same developed countries that are in far more debt than us multiple times over, and these same countries don't hesitate to borrow and print their own currency when and anyhow they feel like it.
The coming post-covid era is going to be brutal for Nigeria and Africa economically, due to dwindling revenues. Most African countries will again be forced to go and do bambiala to IMF/World Bank. For how long?
A Nigerian man based in New York, United States, has died of complications from Coronavirus.
The man named Jonathan Adewunmi, is the owner of a popular Nigerian restaurant named Amarachee in Brooklyn area of New York.
Show promoter, Paul Okoye, who is one of persons close to Adewunmi during his lifetime, took to social media to mourn his demise.
He said, “My man why? Jonathan Rip. Coronavirus why? So many things we planned this summer. Gone so soon brother.”
The Nigerian Government had last week released a list of Nigerians, who died of Coronavirus abroad since the outbreak started weeks ago.
Chairman, Nigerians in Diaspora Commission, Abike Dabiri-Erewa, made this known through a video containing the names, pictures and countries of residence of the departed Nigerians.
In the video posted on her verified Twitter handle, 13 Nigerians abroad have so far died of the virus.
Of the 13 persons, eight died in the United Kingdom while five died in the United States.
The 55-second clip listed the Nigerians killed by the virus in the UK as Dr Alfa Sa’adu, Carol Jamabo, Dr Kole Abayomi, Bode Ajanlekoko, Adeola Onasanya, Ugochukwu Erondu, Chidinma Olajide and Mmaete Greg.
Bassey Offiong, Caleb Anya, Akeem Adagun, Laila Abubakar and Patricia Imobhio on their part were killed by the infection in the United States.
Ok, and so what? Why must you people always try to tell everybody that you are billionaires? This is becoming something else. Almost everyday some person must open one thread about how igbo is the this and that of this world. What for? This is becoming something else.
A middle-aged man narrowly escaped death on Saturday after falling off from Upper Iweka Fly Overbridge, Onitsha, Anambra state.
The man was said to have attempted suicide around 4.15 pm after allegedly jumping down from the flyover following news of total lockdown by the state government.
A resident of the area who preferred not to be mentioned said he saw the body of the man lying lifeless while driving pass the area.
“They said the man just committed suicide by jumping from the Upper Iweka Flyover immediately he had news of total lockdown by the Anambra state government today,”
Reacting, police spokesperson, Haruna Mohammed, dismissed the alleged suicide report, saying the victim was still alive.
He said, “At about 4:20 pm date, a man of about 30years old whose identity is yet to be ascertained allegedly missed steps and fall down from the flyover at Upper Iweka.
“Police patrol team attached to Okpoko Division visited the scene and rushed victim to Toronto hospital for medical attention.
“Victim is responding to treatment and investigation is ongoing to ascertain the actual cause of the incident.”
Global trends have shown that governments with more timely and stricter responses to the coronavirus have been more successful in curtailing its spread. Contrasts have been made between stricter countries like China and the US, which has been laxer.
Where do Nigerian states sit on the scale of responses?
To answer this we have created a State Response Index. The Index is a dynamic measure of each state's aggressiveness in combatting the virus. It is a ranking of the intensity of each state’s response to the coronavirus crisis and is updated with additional developments from verified sources. The 10 criteria and weighting used in creating the index are outlined in the methodology below.
1. Limited welfare
Less than half of state governments have begun any kind of relief to SMEs or cash and food handouts to the vulnerable. Each state has a score out of 10 (on the far left column) based on how many measures it has adopted.
2. Affected states are responding
Thankfully, not only have the states with most of the cases embraced more stringent measures to curtail the spread of the virus but also states with fewer or no cases have implemented border closures which can hopefully help avoid the economic harm of a lockdown. Each state is shaded according to its level of responsiveness. Lagos State has 10 points after adopting all measures. -------------------------------------
Methodology
We developed the index using 10 equally weighted criteria. In calculating State Score, Stears Business only intends to provide a starting point for the discussion around a national strategy for combatting COVID-19.
The criteria were developed with reference to the World Health Organization’s Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan and Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Plans which outline the public health measures that can be taken at a country level to respond to Covid19 as well as comparative studies about how other Nations are responding to flatten the curve. We have taken what we’ve learned about the response options so far to put Nigeria’s response in context.
The index is a dynamic measure of each state's aggressiveness in combatting the virus. It is updated with additional developments from verified sources.
10 Equally Weighted Criteria for State Response (Requirements for point)
The visuals above show the state of the coronavirus response for each of the 36 states and the FCT: Abia, Abuja, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Ekiti, Enugu, Gombe, Imo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, and Zamfara. The criteria are explained below:
Movement restriction: The state must have announced restricted movement, recommended social distancing, and limited public gatherings.
Closed borders - The state must have announced a closure of its land borders at the time of the last update.
Lockdown - The state or Federal Government must have announced a lockdown that is still effective at the time of the last update of this report.
Emergency law - The state must have enacted a law related to its ability to control the coronavirus at the time of the last update.
Security - The state government must have deployed security personnel to enforce rules related to covid19.
Test centers - The state must have had a laboratory announced by the NCDC operational at the time of the last update.
Isolation centers - The Isolation centers with at least 300 beds must already be in place. An announcement of the intention to set up an isolation center does not meet the criteria.
Added ventilators - The state must have made an announcement committing to additional ventilators or received ventilators either through donations or state purchases.
SME Grant - The state must have announced plans for relief to small businesses within the State as at the time of this.
Handouts - The state must have begun cash or food handouts to vulnerable state residents.
This is serious. So it means those that are supposed to have recovered from it are still capable of spreading it after it reactivates in their system (after hiding in cells) , without even being aware. Wahala don dey.
This is becoming more like an humiliation. They should temper justice with mercy. She has apologised and admitted her mistake. Nobody is above mistake.
Pastor Mathew Ashimolowo, founder and Senior Pastor of Kingsway International Christian Centre has urged Christians around the way world to stay away from theories and claims of 5G being the Antichrist.
The KICC founder who admitted that he is not a scientist but a Pastor, stated that anytime there is a major shock around the world the church thinks it is the Antichrist. He went on to recount how the church thought Napoleon, Benito Mussolini, Hitler and many others were the Antichrist.
He also threw a shade at Pastor Chris who he said he is disappointed in for putting out a graph to show a link between 5G, Coronavirus and the Antichrist. He adviced everyone to stay indoors amid the lockdown over Coronavirus outbreak.
Pastor Ashimolowo affirmed that he knows the Antichrist will come and also play some "pranks", but insisted that the current challenges the world is facing is not the handiwork of the Antichrist. He concluded by stating that the world is facing a pandemic which Jesus spoke of in Mathew 24:8.
Recall that Pastor Chris Oyakhilome who was preaching to his congregation on a live TV program few days ago, stated that the pandemic was created to popularize the 5G network which is gradually gaining attention across the world.
He added that these are part of the Antichrist's plan for a new world order which includes; one world government, one world religion and one world economy. Pastor Chris backed his claim with Revelation Chapter 13.
mrvitalis: This is absolutely correct ...I see no reason why Lagos would get and other states won't
Compare the number of cases in Lagos (which is the epicentre of the outbreak) to other states, maybe then you will 'see' reason. If it goes out of control in Lagos, nowhere else in Nigeria would be spared.
....Urge governor to allow markets sell food items
March 31, 2020
Mike Odiegwu, Port Harcourt
Residents of Rivers State especially persons living close to Mbiama, a border community between the state and Bayelsa, have begged Governor Nyesom Wike to review his total ban on markets across the state.
The residents said unless the governor allowed the selling of food items in the markets, they would die of ‘hunger virus’ even before the Coronavirus would get to their areas.
While they appreciated the efforts of the governor to protect Rivers citizens from the virus, the residents urged Wike to either roll out relief materials or allow the selling of only food items in markets.
Mrs. Robinson, a resident of Mbiama, said the popular market had been shut down for about a week since Wike ordered the closure of all markets in the state as part of measures to prevent the spread of the Coronavirus pandemic.
She said security operatives were on rampage at Mbiama market destroying food items to prevent people from either buying or selling.
She said hunger compelled the people in the area to confront the operatives, who insisted that nobody would sell anything at the market.
She said: “It is a terrible situation. The Coronavirus is not here but hunger wants to kill us. There is no way we can buy even foodstuffs and the government has not provided any relief materials. There is nothing in place to assist us.
“The people that have managed to get to the market are stranded. Soldiers and policemen will not allow anybody to buy anything. They destroy bags of garri. They would pour water on the fire of women frying yam along the road. The security forces and the market people have been fighting.
“The people are crying that they are hungry. What I am telling you has continued for over a week now since the governor made an announcement that markets should close down. I was thinking that the sell of other things apart from food would be affected by the order.
“I don’t know why they are not allowing foodstuffs that people depend on to live their lives. How are we going to survive. The market is closed because the security operatives will not allow people to either buy or sell.
Read Also; Senegal reports 13 new cases of COVID-19 “We were hungry and I sent my children to the market but they returned without buying anything. We only eat from hands to mouths. We don’t have money. Even lock-up shops are not allowed to open. What are we going to do? It is the hunger that will kill us before the Coronavirus will even come. The suffering is too much”.
Though Wike earlier ordered that all markets should be closed to contain the spread of the virus, the governor in latest directive exempted people providing essential goods and services.
He said the restrictive orders would not affect medical and pharmaceutical personnel, food and beverages, essential oil and gas staff, petroleum products and media workers and newspaper distributors.
athaboi: why are you telling me shege now, is very simple...I asked you what he has done and you came up with sharing of food. Where exactly, I live in Lagos too...where is the food?? Who did he give?? For how long did they use the food. Nothing concern me with the governor, all I'm saying is that there must be a point for praising him and for now there's none cmon
Menene, stop disturbing my mention with this foolishness. Gaskiya I am sure that the same way you didn't know about that palliatives is the same reason you don't know "Where is the food?" If you are a true Lagosian, I that am living all the way in Abuja would not be the one telling you about the activities of the governor of the state. Walahi if you are expecting me to be the one to tell you how to get your own share of the palliatives, you are a big joker.
Shege. What point? You said he didn't 'announce palliatives', and I proved you wrong. Look, you problem with the man is personal and that is fine, but at least be man enough to admit it (nobody will beat you) instead of just throwing tantrums everywhere like a kid.
athaboi: now tell me, what has he done in this so called extraordinary time that deserve the praise The update?? The market closure?? Did he build any center for this Did he announce any palletive for the people of Lagos?? What exactly bro, talk to us
You obviously have serious issues with SanwoOlu, but that is your problem and not mine. But regardless, your type will not like SanwoOlu not because he isn't a performer, but rather because you refuse to see or acknowledge his efforts (perhaps for political reasons ). And that is fine. The palliatives you asked for, some of it have been widely reported in the news (https://www.independent.ng/sanwo-olu-distributes-food-stuffs-to-lagosians/ ) but you either deliberately refuse to acknowledge that, or you are just not as informed as you let on. Please leave my mention. Just as much as you are entitled not to agree that he is the best or like him, so am I entitled to feel that he is. It is not a contest. We move.
athaboi: bcoz he comes on air to give update?? Jez you guys should just stop already
Why do you sound so pained? Definitely not everyone likes the Lagos governor for different reasons which they are entitled to. By my own personal assessment, leadership is best defined and tested during extraordinary and trying periods. I have followed Sanwolu for sometimes and he is a very well rounded and grounded performer. Same way I rate El-Rufai high in terms of leadership even though he is NOT a PDP governor. As far as project execution and commissioning, I am aware he is not doing badly there either. Anyway, some people including yourself will have a different view on this, and that is fine. No be fight abeg.
Leadership of Ochanja Market Dealers Association, Onitsha, Anambra state said it was ready to comply with the directives by the government on shutting down markets as part of measures to curb the spread of coronavirus.
President- General of the association, Mr Nelson Ojukwu, made the disclosure weekend in Onitsha, saying the decision was reached following a meeting he had with the market leaders immediately the directives got to him.
He said they were aware of the economic implications the closure would have on the traders, but said they were ready to lose their money than risk their lives.
He prayed the closure would not last for a long time.
He said, “The leaders have agreed to shutdown the market as directed by the Anambra State Government from March 30.
“Even though the closure will bring a big set back to the economy individually and collectively, it is a necessary step to save lives.
“The market will close down on Monday as directed by the Governor while we pray that the closure will not last for long.”
Ojukwu noted that the market leaders were solidly in support of the government directives, describing it as timely as well as right step to take in order to curb the spread of the pandemic.
“Soon after the directive reached me, I immediately held meetings with all the market leaders, where we agreed to comply with immediate effect,” he said.
Ojukwu said the traders complied with provision of buckets of water and soap at the entrance of each line.
Personal Assistant to Shoe Dealers Association in the market, Mr Ebele Edoka also praised government decision in closing down the market.
“If the Governor had not issued the order, Ndi Anambra would not have taken proactive measures to prevent the spread of pandemic. A stitch in time saves nine,” he added.
Esseite: Markets and supermarkets should not be closed... it would breed hyperinflation..
I can understand supermarkets (that is if they observe social distancing), but not our open markets in Nigeria please. Open markets will spread the virus like wild fire because it will be extremely difficult if not impossible to enforce social distancing in such big markets. Knowing how stubborn Nigerians can be.
I may not be a supporter of Wike's overbearing and dictatorial tendencies in PDP, but I will have to support his and other governor's commendable decision to lockdown their states for some weeks to slow the spread of the virus. That is the only realistic thing to do at the moment. Peter Obi is just trying to sound politically correct as usual. Only healthy people that are alive can make an economy. If COVID-19 kills every single person in Nigeria there will be no economy to talk about. The health and wellbeing of Nigerians should come first.