AwesomeJ's Posts
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eniorisha:I'll assume that your principal is 1m. The interest due on the investment is circa 35,000. Applying a 10% withholding tax brings it to about 31,500. If you hold to maturity, that's how much you'll earn. If however you decide to terminate now, giving that you've only held for half the tenor, what you should earn becomes 15,750 approximately. As is common with most banks, a 20% penal charge of 3150 is deducted, bringing your returns to 12600. If you now buy an 80-90 day secondary market t-bill at 14% to cover the rest of this investment tenor, the returns on the t-bill will be about 33,000 bringing your total returns to about 45,600 as against the original 31,500. So clearly for every 1mill, there's about a 14,000(or 44%) advantage in terminating now and switching to tbills. I should add that the FD termination request will be processed within 24hours. Try submitting the request early in the morning, and ignore the details regarding your intention to swap for tbills. |
emmanuelewumi:Pa Emma, this is what the investor wrote: "On the terms and condition for the proof of investment I got it says( Termination of investment before maturity attracts 25% flat penalty on interest earned ) " It is stated that the penalty will be on the interest earned which in the case of premature termination, cannot be the same as interest accruable on the full investment. However, I do not mean to raise an opinion contrary to yours for while I yet toddled, you were already an investor. I salute sir. |
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TONY56:Sir, with regards to point 1, As with all investments, the 25% penal charge will be applied on only the earned portion of the interest, which in this case is about 2400 (68000*6/170). So the 25% penalty will only amount to about 600, and not 17000. Also the custodian and transaction fees are about 0.1%(980) and 0.125%(1225), commission is perhaps a max of 500, so even with the VAT, All the charges on this transaction should be under 3,000.00 Now, it is certain this investor will lose a little portion of his funds, but it will be due to the bank buying at a higher discount, and not due to the 25% penal charge. Happy weekend sir great engr. |
Matinho:I think he resurfaced as catchwindfrmkd. Meanwhile, the first bank account type that has a 500 operating balance also has a daily transaction limit of NGN 20,000. Some lies aren't so difficult to spot. |
Kemade2007:If I remember correctly, sometime in May, I placed a redemption request around 10a.m for about 75% of my investment, and the funds hit my account the same day. Stanbic is really cool. What I don't understand now is the fact that the interest on my funds from the last quarter is about 18% more than I expected, there have been some extra additions that I don't understand. Anyone has an explanation for this please? |
katamo:It just excites me to read great analysis from brilliant minds such as this. Kudos sir. |
chyima:As stated by chyima, T-bills are short term debt instruments, and so the tenors remain 91, 182, and 364 days. One of the things we need to be clear about as per this new policy is that the finance minister is only trying to adjust some of the nation's FISCAL policies, but as money market investors, what affect us more are the MONETARY policies which the CBN's MPC fixes. If Emefiele had been the one who mentioned this, I would have been more bothered. The nations sells about 5 trillion naira worth T-bills annually. Now what the minister intends doing is cancelling about 1 trillion naira of these bills and replacing them with longer-tenor foreign currency bonds. so when some of the currently running bills mature, they won't be rolled over, instead proceeds from the bond subscriptions will be used to settle the holders of the treasury bills. Now, if the finance ministry was the one responsible for issuing T-bills, or if the sole aim of issuing the bills were to be for just fiscal purposes, then one would automatically anticipate a reduction of about 20% (about 1 trillion naira) in the amount of bills that get issued. But since the bills are an important tool through which the CBN achieves a significant portion of its monetary objectives, there are no guarantees that T-bills issues will reduce by up to 20%. If this plan gets ratified by the National Assembly, I don't think the values of T-bills issued will reduce by more than 10%, and for FOREX stability reasons, the CBN is likely to yet keep rates at about16% for the longest tenor bills, and they'll probably consider a 100 basis points cut in the MPR at the next meeting. These will be to help reduce to some extent the private sector crowding out concern that the minister mentioned. The forecast is for oil prices to remain under $70 for at least the next few years, and while it is true that there'll be dollar inflows from the bonds, there'll also be outflows from investors who would like to offset naira assets in preference for these dollar bonds. So the CBN will try to strike a balance. What will eventually come out of this is that the CBN begins to bear more of the borrowing cost, while the FG bears less. This will however be a win-win for all. The CBN is able to maintain its forex stability, FG has less debt service burden, investors yet have enough incentives. Please I'd like to get other viewpoints on this. |
Investnow2017:Thanks for the kind words sir. I'm quite flattered. |
There surely won't be any 364-day bills on offer at the next auction. The NTB calendar doesn't just show maturing bills. It also shows new issues the CBN intend making for a given quarter-that what's contained in the roll over section. one would expect things like a nations borrowings to be well scheduled right? Remember before these huge deficits in the nation's budget, 364-day bills used to be on offer just once a month. |
TONY56:Wow, I could almost swear you're a young working class man sir. Your posts are way different-albeit pleasantly so- from what a typical old retiree would put up. I also studied Mechanical Engineering, but I do Finance now instead. |
mindtricks:Say you bought 364 day bills of #1,000,000 at 18% discount. Neglecting bank charges, you will be paid an upfront interest of 180k, in which case your actual investment is 820k. You could either profit or lose if you terminate before maturity. Note if you sell the 1,000,000 tbill and you get credited with less than 1 million, it doesn't necessarily count as a loss, so long adding the upfront interest to the termination proceeds gives more than 1 million, then you've profited. The only instance when you make a real loss on the investment is when you only hold for just a short while, and on termination, you have to rediscount at a significantly higher rate. These are 2 possible scenarios: 1. You hold for more time in the tenor-say 200days, and you sell at a discount which is equal to or less than you bought at. The portion of the interest that goes to the new buyer (1,000,0000*164*18)/(365*100)=80,870. This sum will be discounted from the 1,000,000.00 that you should get upon maturity, and so what you get back is 919,130. So considering that you actually put in 820Gs, your profit is 99,130 for the 200-day period. No loss. 2. If you hold the investment for only a short while say 60 days and the new discount that's bidded for your bills is significantly higher-say rates begin rise significantly , and now your buyer wants a discount of 25% The interest accruable to the new buyer =(1,000,000*304*25)/(365*100)=208,000 approx. Now pulling that from the 1,000,000 that you should get leaves you with only 792,000. Given that you originally put in 820,000 you will be making a loss of about 28,000 on the investment. |
chukzyfcbb:Thanks sir. |
claremont:The only problem with that is volatility in the FX market, because with just a 10% depreciation in the value of the local currency, you'll suffer a loss. In the six months through November 2016, the naira suffered about 50% depreciation against the greenback at the parallel market moving from about 320 in May to upwards of 480 in November. But thanks to God, this volatility is now being largely contained. So if you don't mind this risk, you're very welcome to purchase our bills, as one of the primary reasons why rates have been kept this high is lure FPIs like you to hold naira assets. With regards to quoting investment figures, I feel everyone should quote their figures as long as they are OK with it. The forum already makes us anonymous, plus when people quote 100k and 200k nobody says a word. for this reinvesting upfront interest calculation, you get the value of your returns by using the true yield. if d is the prorated discount rate in %, then %yield y=(100d)/(100-d). so a discount rate of 18.5% has true yield as 1850/81.5=22.7% so if you invest 1 million together with the upfront, your total returns will be about 227,000 as against 185,000 for 17.5% at 182 days, the prorated discount rate is about 8.75%, so the yield y=875/91.25=9.59 which becomes 19.18% per annum. Inflation is now at 16.10%, that to us should be significant. |
amjustme2:Thanks for dropping this. Here's what I think: For the rest of the quarter, discount rates will remain in the 18% range. Of the 1.23trn bills to be sold in the quarter, only about 22bn will be fresh issue. What I feel the DMO is considering now is a balanced mix of the debt portfolio to avoid getting the FG choked on debt service cost. @Mr Gavrielno, you can always request for your bank statements if the need arises, your T-bills investment must reflect in them. But as long as your bank is a licensed commercial bank, you should have absolutely no worries. |
Sylverly:The last auction held was the last for q2'17. Auction dates for the new quarter should be: 15th June, 22nd June, 6th July, 20th July, 3rd August, 17th August, and 31st August. |
For now, the probability of a default on the part of the FG is <= 0. When there are real concerns it will be super obvious. When Greece's own started, even those of us outside Europe got to know about it. If government securities will start failing, bond investors are the ones who should really be concerned because they hold longer-tenor securities. Above all, like someone mentioned earlier, if you start worrying about T-bills because you think the country could go under, then you had better dispose all other financial assets in the country: bank savings, cash, stocks, etc, because they'll all also be worthless. Finally, it will be great for those who are utterly risk averse as to be scared of T-bills, to create another thread where all their fears can be well shared. We here could really use some exits from them. |
Investnow2017:Many Thanks for your nice words sir. The good thing about great fund managers like SIAML is that they are super savvy at what they do, I expect that now that we have high rates, they will have a huge chunk of funds locked down, as so when t-bills rates start dropping, the drop in yield of the MMF will be slower and less steep, and will yet beat the 91-day t-bills benchmark. if t-bills rate fall back to one digit, I'm confident Stanbic will still be able to float an extra quarter of double digit yield. |
adecr7:The answer to your question dear sir is "is there any instance, even by the smallest chance, that people will stop buying t-bills in Nigeria?" Maturing bills are always settled with funds from new buyers, the only cost to the CBN (FG), is the portion that makes up for the upfront interests paid to those new buyers. So if I buy a 1-million naira Aug 31 T-bills, when it matures, there's more than a 100% chance that someone else would be buying those bills at an Aug 30th auction. In November 2015, CBN was selling 91-day bills at discount rates of about 4% per annum, and guess what?, contrary to our expectations, the offer was yet oversubscribed by almost 2 folds. Interbank rates were at all-time lows then, why? basically cos OMO issues were more rare than president buhari's speeches, and unlike now, FX were rarely sold to banks, and the market became awash with liquidity. So if subscriptions for CBN's bills falls to even 110% of the offer, they know how to push the percentage back up. Summary: probability of a default is less than that of no longer finding rice in the market. |
Investnow2017:Bros, I hope you don't use the option of having the interest credited to your account at the end of the quarter, if you do, you'd be losing 10% of your earnings to withholding tax. I think a better option is choosing to reinvest the interest at the end of the quarter, thereafter, you initiate a redemption equal to the amount of the earned interest, that way you're likely to get 100%, and not just 90% of your interest earnings. |
yanmiri:I did some digging trying to answer your question. For the few stocks I was able to look up, there turned out to be more overpriced than underpriced ones as far as intrinsic values are concerned. Take a look: 1. FBNH Total equity 582.575 bn, no of shares outstanding 35.8 bn, intrinsic value 16.27, market price 5.83 ratio about 36%. 2. STERLING Total equity 95.6 bn, no of shares outstanding 28.8 bn, intrinsic value 3.32, market price 0.73 ratio about 22%. The other ones are basically overvalued 3. NESTLE Total equity 30.8bn, no of shares outstanding 792 mn, intrinsic value 38.85, market price 875 ratio about 2252% 4. GUARANTY Total equity 504.96 bn, no of shares outstanding 29.4 bn, intrinsic value 17.17, market price 33.90 ratio about 197%. 5. UNILEVER Total equity 11.6bn, no of shares outstanding 379 mn, intrinsic value 30.6 market price 37.49 ratio about 122% 6. CADBURY intrinsic value 5.87, market price 9.7 ratio about 165%. 7. STANBICTotal equity 137 bn, no of shares outstanding 10.0 bn, intrinsic value 13.7, market price 24.5 ratio about 179% please note that the total equities and number of shares outstanding are based on positions as at 31/12/16. market prices are mostly for May 31 2017. The above info however is not enough to inform your investment decisions. you yet have to study these 3 and more factors really well before you buy into any firm 1.How strong are the fundamentals, for a manufacturing firm for instance, you want a firm whose top line is growing in double digits, and which is able to manage competition well, while for a bank, you want one with very low percentage of non performing loans, and for all categories of businesses, you want a lean cost to income ratio. 2. Do they consistently pay dividends, and in what range has the dividend yield been in recent times 3. Are there potentials for huge capital appreciation in the short to medium term. Along these lines, you may want to do your homework on these ones NESTLE, GTB, PRESCO, STANBIC. @ all, really sorry for the digression. felt I had to drop it, cos even I might need some of the info in future. HAPPY NEW MONTH. |
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freeman67:I think this tranche is sold out. For folks who are interested, I think our stock market is currently experiencing a rally. There are several stocks that have returned more than 50% within the first 5 months of this year alone. some have returned as much as 70%. Whoever has the interest should do their homework and diversify a little. Several stocks are yet undervalued. |
deepwater:Augusto & Co, is perhaps the most notable rating agency in the country, so with an A+ rating from them, I guess you can rest all fears regarding these papers. More so, a tier 1 bank like Access is capable of handling cashflow issues better than say a manufacturing company like Guinness, which offered similar papers last year. I leave the decision to my fund managers, I hope they buy much of it so I can start getting yields in excess of 19% soon. |
amjustme2:The fund manager has explained that the huge outflow was due to a planned redemption by an institutional investor. Stanbic's MMF still remains the largest mutual fund in the country, and stanbic's share of the market still matches those of the next 3 top players combined. With yields currently above 18%, it will only get better for them. |
Cation:Except next week Wednesday is a public holiday, The auction should hold then-wed 31st. Some of us have maturing bills that will be settled on Thursday June 1st. By the way, who has the key takeaways from the last MPC's meeting. I'm assuming it was concluded two days ago. |
chukzyfcbb:I need more enlightenment on this timing you mentioned o. One good thing about T-bills is even if there's no more budgetary provisions for new borrowings, the CBN is bound to always issue T-bills, basically cos, they'll always need the new funds to settle maturing debts. As far as rates are concerned, what I fear even more than a slowdown in economic activities are the MPC's decisions. If the CBN maintains its stance to give money market investors positive real returns, I think we may currently be having one of the longest periods of high rates in our history, because this period, which is now nearing about 12 months may continue for another 24-36 months. I feel the economy would need at least that much time to get inflation figures below 12%. The only fear now is if the CBN decides to no longer be particular about giving us positive real returns. |
Good evening house, please can anyone confirm if the MPC will be meeting next week, and also when the NBS is likely to release April's inflation figures. I pray the former happens before the latter, because I don't want any funny change from the status quo yet as far as rates are concerned. Let the rates remain high for several quarters to come. As a concerned citizen, and as one who thinks constantly about the economic well being of this nation, I often get worried when I see that our debt service cost is in excess of 60% of government revenue. But then I understand that even if it's only 10%, with the persistent leadership problems, 70% of the remaining 90% will be mismanaged, and so there may not be any significant headway. So I'd rather have the rates remain high since that's a sure way of giving more peeps little bites from the national cake. Whatever downside that has will eventually sort itself. Splendid night to everyone. |
babakess:God bless you sir. |
babakess:Thanks babakess for dropping this, I remember reading this from you originally around 2016. I also remember you or perhaps someone else mentioned then that as a young person under 35, with I guess 10m or so, one can be a millionaire for life. please if that post was by you, I'd like if you can as well dig it up and put here for some of us to see. God bless you sir. |
First I think there's only so much else to be asked, and I feel as far as this thread is concerned, there's only so much derailing talks about MMFs can do. When people make posts about ponzi schemes or some marketing stuffs or seminars, then we have some derailments. Let me give you the pattern of our discussions here on the thread: 3 days before or after an auction, we talk about what rates to expect or what rates we got. All other days in between, we'll have talks about things that could impact rates such as inflation figures, OMO, liquidity levels and new policies. When we don't have much of those, there'll be talks about other investment options in contrast to T-bills. Bonds, mutual funds, real estate and all. So feel comfortable to ask whatever questions you have. By the way, there's already a mutual funds thread created by ernie4life. see the link: https://www.nairaland.com/1912965/mutual-funds |
MyPicsSaysItall:One good thing about Stanbic IBTC Holdings is they try to integrate all their services. So whether it's banking, assets management or pension they help you with, you can always access them through any branch of the bank. Even their mobile banking app has their pension and asset management services integrated. So all you need do is visit just any branch of the BANK, and you'll get what you want. However visiting SIAML's office could be as easy as just placing a phone call. They can be reached on 01 280 5595. You'll get all your needs attended to. |
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