AwesomeJ's Posts
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NL1960:Then again, like I once read on the stock market thread, as long as your barber and cab driver haven't started talking about buying stocks, we should be safe from a bubble. |
NL1960:As long as CBN keeps one year treasury yields below 3%, the market should be able to sustain a 20x PE valuation. That would probably push NSE Index to about 50,000 pts and market cap to around N30trn. N13trn was just a couple of days back, today we're at N18trn |
ojesymsym:Well for one, if it's being hard to increase dollar reserves, then choose the other option of reducing new naira created-especially those from risk-free instruments. it has its risks though-that people would abandon t-bills and probably chase FX with their free naira. So far that risk isn't playing out. So, How low can they go? US 91-day bills is currently at 0.09%, so maybe that low, maybe even lower. |
ojesymsym:Certainly. December savings bonds will probably start seeing 0. xx% in coupon offerings. Folks are just chasing dividends. NSE gained about N1trn in market cap today, yet there are still a lot if stocks with over 7% div yield. When you contrast that with 0.3% T-bills over thesame one-year period it starts looking like gold in comparison with mild steel. |
ojesymsym:If those instruments were directly under CBN rather than the DMO, their slide would have been swifter. Nigeria's money market rates should currently rank as the Lowest in Africa. Keep 1m in t-bills to get Max of #250 per month, I remember when it was 15k per month. |
Like they say: "Witch die yesterday, child cry today" Who no know say na 0.3 T-bills trigger NSE circuit breaker! |
ahiboilandgas:I think he's only trying to point out the fact that access to credit can be super tough in the country, and that's mostly true for unestablished enterprises. He would normally attack your person rather than your message, but this last quote he made he made of you, he addressed just your idea, and that's what I did appreciate. How did you get 330? you were counting? or you extrapolated? |
Cyberknight:When you really study how they make money, if it was you, some risks won't be worth it too. That minor N20 adjustment in the NAFEX rate from 366 to 386, Zenith bank made N22 billion in H1. as low as T-bills are right now, they still get around 7% on OMO. When you discount interests from T-bills and bonds, real interests income from core lending accounts for less than 40% of banks' gross earnings-at least for the FUGAZ When you look at just retail lending, it's probably less than 10% of their overall earnings. So they really are not too bothered. It's only the LDR and ultra lean money market rates that's making them bulge a little. |
Desanta:Like, did you incorporate as a LLC? Is there a plan to scale up, maybe have a chain? List on an exchange or float debt instruments at 11%? |
Lazyyouth4u:Like Issuing power licenses to multinationals like Siemens, and GE. Let them come and set up shops, and build massive infrastructure. GE will easily have a 5GW power plant running under 2 years. The transmission and Distribution ends seem to have the larger challenges these days though. Or perhaps there're other reasons why this won't be a practicable idea. |
Lazyyouth4u:God bless you sir. Now just see the brilliant way you quoted Ahib. Let's keep this up. Maybe the last part though could use some.. God bless you. |
ahiboilandgas:Na wah! LCC will need 10 Millennia to meet up, that time, everybody don kpai. |
tnota, you may check cscs 2018 annual report. Things are so clearly spelt out there. CSCS makes money from charges on our trades on the NSE, but almost half of their revenue is from T-bills and bond interest. They had PBT of about 6bn in 2018, and while their tax should have been 1.8bn at 30% rate, it was just under 600m. They clearly stated that 3.8bn of their income was not taxable. That 3.8bn was the portion of their interest that came from T-bills and bonds. see notes 10 and 13. note 13 is on page 107. However they paid about 1.2bn eventually due to excess dividend tax. I deduce the rule guiding the excess dividend tax is that. even though they were not liable to pay CIT on t-bills and bonds earnings, if they diststribute dividends to their owners, the dividends must be such that 30% of it equals or less that the CIT they already paid. so if you don't distribute dividends, you can avoid CIT altogether. Happy new month everyone. it's a new day, a new week, and a new month. Go to church. |
@tnota, I just looked through zenith's 2019 q1, they had pbt of 57bn. at 30%, their tax should have been 17.1bn, it was just about 5bn, and the actual corporate tax was just around 300m. the rest were dividend WHT and the likes. So I think the fact that about one-third of their gross earnings for that quarter came from T-bills and bonds made their corporate tax much lower at 300m versus the expected 17bn |
NSE was 3.71% gain on Friday. |
tnota:Oh I see. I've actually thought about this. I think if your earnings are from tax free instruments and dividends, you shouldn't have to pay CIT. Like I said, i've actually thought about it. Like if I had a hedge fund, I assumed I wouldn't have to pay any CIT since my earnings are primarily from government instruments that are tax free and dividends that have been tax deducted at source. That's still my opinion, hopefully someone who's an expert will educate us on this. Meanwhile I will try look at some bank statements to see if they pay tax on their t-bills and bond interests. if I confirm they don't, it will ground this opinion more. |
TransAtlanticEx:The fact that dollar remains at 460 at the street market doesn't mean there's naira chasing them. Whether it's $1000 traded or $1m the price doesn't indicate the volume. It's only by the trade volume that you can judge whether naira is available chasing it or not, not by the price remaining constant. You know that holistic view I talked about, 364-day T-bills went below 1% for the first time since I've known t-bills, if your opinion about people pulling out was right, dollar should have gone up to 470 or 480 after Wednesday. Alternatively, on Friday, come and see liquidity on NSE, market gaining over 2.5% in one day with over N10bn traded. that's compared to the normal 5bn and 0.25% gain the the market would do in a typical session. |
tnota:Well all I know about taxes on securities is that there are instruments that are free of WHT, so the logical thing would be to choose them over those on which WHTs are charged. T-bills, bonds, and commercial papers are free. Fixed deposits and dividends are charged. apart from stamp duty, there are no charges on stocks purchases, so I don't think there'll be anything to avoid. For dividends though, if you sell the stocks after the dividends have been priced in rather than after the markdown, you should b able to avoid the tax altogether. I hope you find this useful. |
TransAtlanticEx:You'd only be able to catch up if you're able to grow your reserves at 20% CAGR too. And before you come and tell me "yes, I will even do 30" You should know it'll takes a lot of brilliant work and external factors going your way for you to even maintain your reserves talk less of growing at even 5%. Our $60bn reserves in '08 should be $108bn today if we had been able to do just 5% CAGR. you won't even be be able to do 5% talkless of 20% because when you're planning on $66 oil in January, you won't be able to sue anybody when oil goes to $15 in April. So, with constant 20% mopping up, your bubble will burst sooner or later. And you wouldn't be proving any point, you'd just be causing unnecessary chaos. |
TransAtlanticEx:We've discussed how the 465 happened now. it's negligibly correlated to T-bills crash. The crash happened in October 2019, and dollar was at 360 from October to December, went to 370 in December, and crash back to 360 in January where it stayed till March when covid struck. Monday March 9, oil lost 30% in a single day. I checked market orders on the nse full offer on almost all stocks full offer at the lowest possible price, oil price single-day crash had sent panic on holders of naira assets, that panic permeated the street FX market dollar started moving towards 390. Fuel got added when FX sales to BDCs got suspended. That's how we got to 480 and now 460. As per data for how much of retail t-bills money got into FX, the data for that can be inferred from data on bank retail customers FX deposits. that hasn't grown by up to $1bn yoy for retail customers. The CBN has access to more exact figures so they are better informed about this. |
TransAtlanticEx:You'd only be fuelling a burst waiting to happen. Don't try it. It's like having a constant salary, using one loan to repay another with interests ramping up. when the bubble will burst, you won't be able to stay afloat. If Nigeria starts with 20trn credit and you price at 20% planning to keep mopping up at 20% because you're taking a lopsided look. In just 5 years, that 20trn will theoretically grow to almost 50trn. If your FX reserves remains constant at $40bn. The value of your currency relative to your Reserves would go from #500 to a dollar to about #1250 to a dollar in just 5 years. And if you continue for another 5 years, it become about #3100 to a dollar. If something drastic reduces your FX reserves significantly, you'll be worse off. When panic sets in, and most of your citizens start losing faith in your currency, you'll become another Zimbabwe. |
Lazyyouth4u:I don't need to know how health insurance contribution works, that doesn't hold any sway in line of the argument we're having. The surcharge on gas can be viewed as contribution towards fixing road. "tax" or "contribution" in this context of pooling funds together is just nomenclature. Anyways, I don't wanna overflog this. If you don't think I get your point, I agree. I just wanted to point out that Ahib's suggestion is not silly as you're making it seem to be. It's actually practicable in my opinion. If you maintain a contrary view, it's fine. It's not a criteria to make heaven, so nobody has to be right. |
TransAtlanticEx:You're right in thinking low yields portends the risk of making the 10m available to chase FX. However it's only a risk that may end up not materialsing. That was why we didn't go from 13% to 0.9% at once. We knew of this risk, and we crashed gradually watching how things would turn out. Apparently, the risk you mentioned which I also know to be accurate, didn't materialize. There were still oversubscriptions. I agree with you the over subscriptions were mostly institutional. At the retail segment also, funds from T-bills didn't mostly go into chasing or stashing FX. Folks mostly redeployed to Bonds, mutual funds, equities and properties. So your point is only a possibility. we watched and it didn't materialize. On the other hand, continuing with a interest rate regime was not a possibility, it was a certainty. I mean when you discount 20trn worth of instruments at 20%, You've CERTAINLY created 4trn new naira on a constant FX position. If you had $40bn in reserves, each dollar in your reserves would support #500 for 20trn. But when you increase your naira position to 24trn via high interests, each dollar would then be able to support #600. Now, that's the guaranteed devaluation that we have avoided through low rates. |
Lazyyouth4u:I think you're letting the fact that the suggestion came from Ahib cloud your appraisal of it. People get taxed, or put another way, they are made to contribute towards their road maintenance each time they buy fuel into their cars. How much different is that from Ahib's suggestion? |
TransAtlanticEx:I see the angle you're viewing from. Your perspective is accurate. Just not holistic. And you should know not to suggest pit toilet trash to a pastor. |
Lazyyouth4u: |
maishai:Avoid which is okay. Evade is criminal. Dangote avoided around 85bn in taxes in 2018 or so, he didn't evade. |
TransAtlanticEx:Trans, are you in a trance? credit = debt now? The cheap credit helping our FX position is straight forward. How much naira did you get buying 10m T-bills in 2018? about 1.8m How much today for thesame 10m just 94k based on the last auction result. so you could take that 1.8m to chase USD in2018, today your 94k exerts much lower pressure. same with bank lending, banks that didn't want to lend at 27% in 2017 cos there was free 23% OMO, are now looking for customers at 15%. Most large corporates are issuing CPs at sub 7% When you mentioned that cheap credit may also lead to excessive consumption thereby increasing FX demand, that's almost true just that the issue there isn't the cheapness of the credit but rather easy access. If you give 10m to someone who knows it's secured with his salary of future retirement benefits, he's more likely to first think very carefully before accepting, even if the interest is just 10% pa. And he'll eventually utilize it well if he chooses to take it. But when you say anyone should just dial a code on their phone and they can get up to 6m instantly with no paperwork involved, that's the type that'll go into unproductive ventures like buying Benz. Even if the credit is priced at 30%. |
Lazyyouth4u:Asking as someone who wants to know, how does NHIS cover folks in the informal sector. motorists and market traders for instance. And I think it's wrong to keep saying np country taxed people at the point of purchase of goods. I have cited an example of the gas tax in some US states. That voids that argument already. |
jedisco:True. Lazyouth, I learnt folks in Carlifornia, maybe several other US states pay gas tax used for maintaining their roads. The tax is added to the price per gallon folks pay at gas stations. So when you pay $2.13 a gallon for gas, the actual gas cost which goes to Exxon and the likes may just be $2.01 the 12 cents goes to the road maintenance pool. So you see Ahib isn't wrong afterall. |
maishai:Let Inec be like SHL , candidates apply to INEC. INEC sends them link to take tests. Shl will allow you write test in your home unsupervised. less than 10% or candidates still make it. we don't have to follow the waec pattern. The challenge I see with the suggestion is who will manage the economy at the top levels, all the years we'll wait for these successful candidates to grow from the grassroots. |
Lazyyouth4u:The deduction is not a tax. it's a contribution that you own. less than 20% of the adult population does NHIS. But more than 80% recaharge airtime on their phones. |
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