₦airaland Forum

NL1960:
He does not want to leave after the 10 years. So the best way round it is to convert GTB to a HoildCo and become the CEO of the HoldCo. I heard that he has long scrapped the DMD position which has always been the succession process of GTB. Sit tight syndrome has gotten hold of him.

My thoughts too.

Reine22:
Please does anyone know if banks are selling PTA to travelers?

I got a mi from STANBIC earlier this month telling me to come buy. So I guess they are. I don't know the current cap though. It used to be $4000 per quarter.

TransAtlanticEx:
How did you "succeed" in 2016?
Were you the one that saved the naira in 2016 or the CBN?
I'm getting confused.

Every macro I didn't like, I prayed to order. I saw them in order. That's the success.

Oil at $27 topped $80 sometimes in 2018;

Inflation at over 17% moderated to about 11%

Dollar at 520 crashed to 360

Reserves at $23bn exceeded $45bn

Grarri at 1000 became 400.....

Dum20:
By addendum, i mean i was supporting your point.

People hold dollars for Eurobond, People earn dollars as income.

The response was to back up why you are doing what you are doing. You said it that you are not a speculators

Sorry then.

It would have been easier to deduce if you quoted Transatlantic or any of the other speculating guys.

TransAtlanticEx:
How do you plan to keep prices stable in an import dependent country of 200m+ people by selling $3m to CBN?
Don't this tell you you are engaging in a futile journey?
The right thing to do is join the saboteurs,weaken the naira and use proceeds for charity,else your patriotism will be round tripped to one aboki that will make all the profit.
Futile patriotism If you ask me.

My efforts are not futile. I see the impact, it's why I continue in them. I didn't give up in 2016, it paid off, I won't give up now.

Dum20:
My post was an addendum to yours.

As some people believe that everyone that have access to dollars did so for speculation purposes.

You shouldn't just assume that I have that stance now.

I have a dorm account myself.

Going by Transatlantic's suggestion on safes, you don't even need a dorm account to speculate now.

TransAtlanticEx:
Unfortunately your patriotism can't make a difference because right now you are the only Nigerian that isn't cashing out on this naira collapse like you say.
So where would your patriotism lead you?
Why not make enough free money via speculation to raise enough money you don't need so as to engage in charity,like building free state of the art hospitals,etc...?
That way your patriotism will achieve more results,than taking your fx to go and dash CBN for their incompetence in the name of patriotism

Keeping prices stable will help more people than a few hospitals I may build.
Talk about 100m people versus 1000 people. It's a huge difference.

aieromon:
SDF is MPR less 5%

11.5 - 5.0 = 6.5%

Re read the post you quoted.

The new corridor is +100/-700

SDF is currently 4.5%

cucumbar:
. Oh okay. I’m aware of this.
Your initial post suggested that there was a new directive that you can only access funds in your dorm account by converting at the cBN rate.

It's a post from someone else. Not mine.

Dum20:
There are Nigerians that work in African countries and they are paid in dollars. The dollars is paid into their Dorm accounts.

Not everyone owns a dorm account for speculation.


I wonder if this new CBN policy will affect them.

I don't know who/what you meant to quote. There's nothing in my posts that disagrees with what you stated.

TransAtlanticEx:
How much Eurobond want give you that will surpass speculative,easy earnings?
Are you out to make money or to make name?
Because any rational human being would speculate rather than invest in any sort of Eurobond because clearly,the speculation at that point you say you were in will pay better and seem more like the better thing to do.
I don't have any headache actually,I'm very relaxed tbh...

Well, it depends on who you're watching.

More importantly you can't be building something and tearing it down at thesame time.

I remember you or someone else has referred to my comments about the economy as only patriotic. That's true.

I love my nation. Where else would I love? And I'm actively involved in turning the fortunes of this country around for good spiritually.

So I'll be deceiving myself to even consider speculating or any such thing that may sabotage the progress I pray earnestly for.

I have ample supply, I'm not desperate!

cucumbar:
well, maybe in selected banks. I was privy to a withdrawal of 20k dollars like two weeks back, and I’m very sure you can withdraw in zenith bank subject to availability in the branch you wish to withdraw.

It started since late February.

It's not that you can't make withdrawals.

The rule was funds should exit a dorm account via the same channel they came in through.

So if you buy dollars from aboki and pay cash into your dorm. You can only take out that fund via cash withdrawal. No transfer.

On the other hand if funds entered your dorm through local or offshore transfer, you can only take it out via transfer. No cash withdrawal.

So it's not about the bank, it's about how the money came in.

TransAtlanticEx:

You must be the most contented person on earth.
Maybe dangote's NL account
Liar!when you Bleep up gree say you Bleep up and quit making funny excuses.

What exactly are you saying? Bleep up how?

I wasn't even talking to you now was I?

Well, i'll educate you.

I hold dollars that are lent to the FG as eurobonds. I don't need the fund. I have ample naira. I only need it to have some dollar earnings. It's serving its purpose.

I didn't buy it to speculate so I wasn't interested in selling even at 480 so what's your headache?

TransAtlanticEx:
1)I don't give opinions,I give calculated predictions(not your typical songbird).
2)Yes,only a dunce will still have his fx in any bank after all the signs and warnings(I reiterate).
Dunces were created so they can lose money they probably didn't work for to smarter people,in this case banks,BDCs,etc...

You're on your own.

Olaide1295:
A friend who has dollars at GTB mentioned it to me and then it started today. The bank said it’s a CBN policy.

Interesting.

I've always used NAFEX rate to value my USD holdings. So no difference for me.

TransAtlanticEx:
This is an economic thread.
It's in my place to let people know before time of impending economic blunders.
I wonder how smart a person who has fx in domm acct will feel when his hard earned fx is exchanged for 379 by his holding bank when abokis close by would have bought at 460.

You may try to let people know about impending economic blunders, but you'll only be expressing an opinion which no one is bound to take. And more importantly, the fact that you're giving such opinions accords you no right to garnish/tarnish it with insults.

As for VGIF, it's benchmarked against CBN'S SDF

MPR is now 11.5% with a +100/-700 bps corridor.

That brings SDF to 4.5%. (11.5-7).

ifyalways:
Both.

Well I think Agbaje's tenure will reach 10 years in 2021, maybe he's not ready to retire. But he can't be MD for longer than 10 years owing to CBN's restriction.

So what do you do?

I guess convert to a HoldCo like FBNH and STANBIC, then GTBANK becomes a subsidiary with it's own MD, and Agbaje can the climb up to become CEO of the parent HoldCo. They'll have the bank as well as a PFA, asset management firm etc as subsidiaries.

The reason for the conversion may be totally different from my opinion stated above, but the plan to convert has been announced.

ifyalways:
Really? I havent heard this news

Which one?

GT Bank Hold Co or VGIF at 4.5%?

TransAtlanticEx:
This thing no be talk.
Very naive.
Simply buy a safe(coded,armored,metallic box).
Which bank pass this one?

Did you just see the word "naive" You unnecessarily overusing it.

anyways, Your idea of buying strong safe is good. I just don't think it's in your place to say people are devoid of sense for keeping FX in banks.

TransAtlanticEx:
How bulky is $3m?
These are reasons why safe building companies are still in business.
Stop sounding naive,no right thinking person will want to risk losing all that naira because he has $3m he can clearly store at home with proper safes.
No one!

How bulky is $3m?

At least 60 bundles, that's 300 packets.

Not everyone will be able to sleep deep with that much cash at home.

Olaide1295:
Many news coming in today.

First, that CBN has reduced the MPR to 11.5% (from 12.5%). Immediate effect is that interest on Savings deposits falls to 1.15 per annum.

Second, that owners of dollars in DOM accounts can't do FX transfers again. They are now being compelled to sell to the bank.

Could you please provide a link to the second info. These FX reforms are getting interesting.

I was hoping GT Bank will buy back Investment One, as part of their HoldCo restructuring, and I'll do VGIF. Now CBN has also crashed that to 4.5%

TransAtlanticEx:
Whoever was dumb enough to leave their fx at the bank is devoid of sense and my condolence.
Daft people deserve to be cheated in life,plain truth.
I said this a long time ago and some argued

Don't localise thoughts and be quick to use words.

So because you have $50k or less, you think that's what it is for everyone?

someone with $3m should keep it under matress in your opinion? how many bundles of $100 bills would do?

ojesymsym:
This here is what they call modeling. The risk has been captured analyzed and found not to be as big as it is been speculated to be.
There is one argument that the nay sayers have been able to disprove, which is how come CBN held USD successfully at around 360 till when coronavirus kicked in? If you claim 2016 is different from 2020, what are the difference and how is the fundamentals of 2016 better than 2020?

Question for you @awesomej, we cannot deny that around December, USD was already beginning to feel some pressure and many analyst were so sure that CBN will devalue this year even though CBN came out to deny it. How come that prediction came to pass even though neither party foresaw coronavirus?

Analysts saying cbn would devalue has been happening since 2018. It didn't start in 2020. Their predictions failed in 2018, and all through 2019 especially. So it's not that they rightly predicted in 2020, the entire world just found itself in a terrible socio-economic situation.

Oil crashed in Q4 and, the OMO liquidity glut started around then too. The most scary thing then was the rate at which reserves were falling.

So for about 2-3 weeks, dollar was at 370. But it soon returned to 360, and it stayed there until the CBN suspended retail sales to BDCs.

With all the noise about people sweeping out dollars: For a population of about 100m adults, how many people would you guess to be having eurobond or dollar fund accounts as at July 2020?

With the way some people are saying boys will clear... here, you'd think at least 1m people.

The fact is not even 100k, not even 10,000 people out of 100m have investments in eurobond and dollar funds. As a matter of fact, it's just under 7,000 entities in the entire nation and perhaps in the diaspora too.

So, like I said, there are folks who can afford to buy 10,000 USD currently, but they have funds tied in properties or other illiquid assets, there are also those who can afford to, but already have their funds in foreign currencies. BUT the Really VAST majority would just rather have their bills sorted than worry about buying dollars.

So in the end, the available naira to speculate with is grossly overrated.

Check VGIF, for instance, it's perhaps the fixed income vehicle with the highest yield these days, and with all the yield seeking guys moving money there, the fund has only grown from about N2.2bn when rates crashed in October 2019 to about N6.9bn in July.

So If all those who poured the N4.7bn there chose to buy dollars at 380 instead, their money won't even be enough to buy $13m.
The bulk of that N4.7bn could have even been from institutional client(s) o.
Yet some people think $50m weekly which is $200m every month is small liquidity.

You're looking overly down on the size of the dollar supply whereas you're overestimating the size of the available naira.

The guys with real liquidity that can scare me are pension funds with trillions worth of idle cash, not all these speculators that can't even buy $100,000 in a whole year.
Regulations prevent the PFAs from speculating.

einsteine:
So you really think the Naira would appreciate at a time when rates are at 2 percent compared to when it was 16-18% ? At the moment, you can earn more on dollar denominated investments than on Naira investments (at least from a retail perspective) yet you somehow think that some magic would prevent Nigerians from converting Naira to hard currency?



And I don't understand what you mean by start buying at 440. Did you read my previous post? You say you expect dollars to sell for less than 400 very shortly, how much dollars would you be willing to sell at 410, I would be willing to make arrangements to buy ALL.

You should learn to make straight arguments.

You said 2017 was better. I've stated to you how much you're wrong in that thinking, so what you should have done is just bring counter facts on why you think the fundamentals now are worse than they were in 2017.


I said CBN is bold enough to be doing just 2% rates now, because they aren't as desperate as they were in 2017, and that's proof that now's a better time. What you should do is support your initial argument of saying 2017 was better.

By saying people are earning more in USD and all, you're leaving one argument unfinished to jump into another.

Meanwhile NGN rates dipped below USD funds around Q4'19. How come dollar remained completely stable at 360 up until COVID impacted oil earnings and restricted international travels.

Your first argument of 2017 was better is unfinished, your second claim that rate disparity in itself mounts enough presure, I've also disproved.


What's hard to get in "start buying at 440"?

Someone said people should buy at any price below 440 and sell at any price above 460. I said it would lead to losses. Some of you don't agree, so why not just follow the suggestion and stock up dollars at 440? Why do you have to wait for 410 that you're quoting when you don't even think 440 is sustainable. And why do you have to ask to buy from me? is it that hard for you to get mallams or BDCs or did I say I was trading USD?

I should be the one waiting to buy USD at 410. When you say 440 is only a temporary fall, and that there will be another spike, and you're again saying you want to buy at 410, your positions contradict.

einsteine:
So you are saying the same conditions that were around that period are also on ground now? Lol. Many of you "patriots" would eventually eat humble pie

Point out the changes.

Oil only really recovered in 2018. 2017 averaged just around $50, maybe a little over. 2017 production was also depressed by millitancy. Reserves had only just reached $30bn.

Even if it's by just 5%, our import substitution drives have reduced FX pressure.


So based on things that are facts,

State how 2017 was a better time for FX sustainability than now.

2017 was better, and CBN is bold enough to be doing 2% rates now? compared to the desperate 18%?

You don't have to be convinced. Start buying at 440!

einsteine:
Your opinion.
USD under 400 is not sustainable.

So it was sustainable for 3 years at 360, and you think 400 isn't?
Like I said, you should start buying. We'll see how it turns out.

ahiboilandgas:
yes we use to get around that range 20k,20,20,k then 10k

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/05/cbn-increases-dollar-supply-bdcs-50/

here it says it was once increased to 60k but ABCON president complained it was too much.

I assumed 20k twice weekly, but apparently, it once became thrice to top 60k. I don't think it was ever 75k.

You may yet cite any reference to the 75k, as I couldn't find any.

ahiboilandgas:
yes we use to get around that range 20k,20,20,k then 10k

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/05/cbn-increases-dollar-supply-bdcs-50/

here it says it was once increased to 60k but ABCON president complained it was too much.

I assumed 20k twice

TransAtlanticEx:
Speculators are not the only problem,there are importers too that can do a lot of turn over and swallow a huge chunk of that reserves.
Who told you BDCs use to get $40k tops pre-pandemic weekly?
They had as much as $75k weekly and now CBN can only do $20k and with resumptions of international travel,its effect might barely be felt.
You will see that on monday,unless they pump more than what they've said.

Please cite a reference to confirm BDCs got up to $75k weekly. Maybe I'll learn.