SpaceX: what is the difference between a poll and a model?
Both are data-driven to give detailed insights about the event and to predict the future.
They are different.
Model is what bookers use to predict match. Polls involve calling likely voters and random people with a place to get what the opinions of the people in that area thinks or the way they will vote.
Nate Silver does not call people to build his data.
A porn star became the first lady of the United States and she was hated for being a porn star. 'What a bad and disgraceful lifestyle'. A porn star said Trump paid her hush money and trumps peepee is a little bigger IjeBos'. 'what a hero she is, porn stars are people with integrity, they are the people who will save America's democracy'
Today, a career prostitute is running against a guy she would have slept with in a heartbeat to get power in any office.
🚨HOLY SH!T🚨
This is an unearthed ABC profile of San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown in 1995.
Because she copied and pasted codes from Biden's website, she does now have an original policy, even if they are similar she is not supposed to copy and paste and hope no one notices.
They did this just before the debate and it may be that she holds no real policy except from the radical ones her campaign surrogates are constantly walking back.
IjeBos: Most people who read his post got the impression he thought it was a poll. Some even felt the need to clarify it. Most people except you. Ask yourself why that is. Enjoy your bullshitting and gaslighting.
That does not mean that is what he is saying. There are two graphics in what he posted, one is the model, and the other shows polling aggregate which is part of what the model is based on.
basilico: She might pretend she will come up with new action plans , but seriously copying from Joe Bidens campaign website
She does not know her policies, Biden has not been at the white house since he dropped out of the race. Who is running the United States as Biden eats ice cream at the beach?
ijebosb: Didn't I tell you to stick to the one word sentence format due to your inability to properly conjugate verbs.
SpaceX clearly intimated that 61% was from a poll in the post he wrote. Even LordAdam assumed the same and tried to clear it up for him. Yet here you are the perpetual Liar, doing your lying thing.
What he said is not what you are implying. He said the honeymoon period is over and true polls are starting to come out.
That's is true. There is a period at the end of that sentence, then he quoted Nate Silver's model.
Ijebosc: Keep an eye on Florida. One recent Poll has Trump only up by 2. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4870702-florida-trump-harris-poll/ There is also an abortion access measure on the ballot which will drive turnout. The 60% pass rate for the measure may mean more people may even be more motivated to turn out to get it to pass. Obama also won it in 2012. And Trump won it by 1.2% in 2016.
This simpleton can't himself 😂 he will scream misogyny and racism when she loses by 20 points in Florida
Ijebosc: You're right. Maybe, it's also that Trump gave them courage to spew their nonsense. And they seem to be the most active online. It's pretty depressing.
Just not sure how we come back from this with so many people internalizing this nonsense, as now it's emotional for them. Look at this thread. People go out of their way to make nonsense arguments for things they should know better about.
I read some comments on a Harris story of Fox News' site. I couldn't believe the amount of overt and coded racism and misogyny.
basilico: Exactly. I've always called the climate change a hoax. It's really a religion , some people really believe in it. 4 days ago there was this NPR article about a new breed of chaplains. . eco chaplains to help people deal with climate grief. Absurdity taken to the extreme.
Climate change or global warming was supposed to cause historic hurricane events, as predicted. Now they are asking, where are all the hurricanes? Our cities are supposed to be flooded. Their answer is that the severe events we predicted due to climate change did not happen because of climate change.
Anyone with a scintilla of brain would ask why people like Obama are buying beach houses as they scream about rising oceans
John Kerry, speaking in 2009: "In five years, scientists predict we will have the first ice-free Arctic summer." 🤡
He forgot to mention that the poles have been ice-free for at least 80% of Earth's history. pic.twitter.com/M5tXTBLMKJ
basilico: You never understand when someone is mocking you. My God, the world needs less of your kind. What kind of analysis do you ever do with excels if you can't put two and two together
Because he is an empty barrel, waste of brain cells 😂 I know the idiot could not resist
armyofone: He is up now. 61% is a good place to be.
Have you cast your vote ? We could hitch a ride to the nearest pollung booth.
I am not able to vote because I crossed the border through Mexico. Kamel la Harris promise to give us asylum but she is almost unlikeable even if she is able to cure cancer.
Trump is never up in the polls. This is true when he beats Hillary, came close to beating Biden n Biden was up like 10points in some of these swing states.
Ijebosc: Your argument seems to be. 'Ignore everything your eyes, ears and brain tell you and what everyone else who has spoken to Trump about it says, just believe what Trump says this time as opposed to every other time he's lied.' Trump is a perpetual Liar. And if you can't see that, you have a problem with discernment.
Hatred is doing the thinking for you again. Even in the DNC Convention CNN said Trump has nothing to do with it.
basilico: Very correct. Fatah Abbas has not held elections at the West Bank because Hamas will win hands down. Palestinians prefer Hamas to Fatah. Hamas won Gaza elections in 2006 and then forcefully routed out Abbas faction. The smug West thinks Abbas is a partner in peace, he is not. His aim is to bleed concessions from Israel until they eradicate the Jews either by genocide or right of return where Arabs who are descendants of those who fled 1948 war are allowed to return to Israel and become the majority.
Abbas does not have the strong desire Hamas to eliminate Israel which is why the Palestinian people prefers hamas. Promises that can only bring destruction instead of peace
Hamas is not a reaction. Before hamas the PLO existed. They caused a lot of havoc in the Middle East including multiple assassination attempts on the king of Jordan, They colluded and supported Sadam in his invasion of Kuwait. we all knew the US kicked the Iraqis out of Kuwait. at the end of that war, Kuwait expelled thousands of Palestinian refugees in the country. They went to Lebanon when they were expelled from Jordan with the help of Pakistan (killing more than 25k Palestinians) it's called black September. Guess what happened in Lebanon when they took them in; Civil war. again, just as they did in Jordan, they formed a state within a state. Lebanon is shit today and Palestinians are one of the reasons.
Hamas is not a reaction, Hamas is a continuation of their desire to exterminate Israel right from the day the nation was created. Others gave up that ambition and embraced peace except for the Palestinians and their devil Iran
kkins25: I would argue, Hamas has existed from the very beginning. Only they weren't called Hamas. Hamas is the bigotry Manifest. And that has led to the manifestation of zionist bigotry.
That said, I don't think the Arabs will accept to live side by side with Isreal.
Otherwise, they would have done so already.
There cannot be sitting at the table with such kind of folks. Reminds of uni days. "we won't allow a Christian elect to lead as Student union government president, therefore no SUG. Either that or flames."
budaatum: Sit down and resolve their differences instead of trying to eliminate each other.
Very funny. If Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi can sit down and resolve the issue of Israel, maybe the problem is Palestine. Israeli soldiers risk their lives for Arabs captured by Hamas. These Arabs were once on the other side.
To sit down and resolve the issues, hostages must first be released, then hamas must surrender
budaatum: "The Biden administration (and America) faces a choice: continue following the Netanyahu government into the abyss, or forcefully pressure it to change course."
IjeBos: But, the author isn't arguing to disengage fully from Israel. The author is arguing for normalizing the relationship and getting it back to where Israel is the junior partner and the US is the senior party. Or the US engaging in ISrael in a way that advances our own interests rather than allowing Israel to advance their interests while hurting ours.
Look it we have Americans getting killed by Israel, while the US is the lone country using it's sway to prevent votes that would otherwise be more or less unanimous in the UN. Our uncritical support of Israel has made them worse off, not better. Has allowed their government to move far right and put them in the situation where their PM has an arrest warrant by the Haque. It's very shortsighted and Israel has handcuffed us to their public immorality.
Mr. harvard with redundancies.
All you said is BS. you have no clue what the interests of the United States are. again, keep hatred aside. Jew hatred runs in your veins. Hamas killed an American citizen no issues for you.
LordReed: An interesting read. However there is one factor the writer doesn't contend with. Religion. It is perhaps simultaneously the biggest and the least spoken about driver of this situation. A lot of religious sentiments will need to be dismantled to go in the direction the writer suggests.
that is why i said that idiot you are chatting with is driven by hate. Iran has been in a cold war with Saudi Arabia for decades and it is due to religion, dominant Sunni vs dominant Shiite. it was because of the war they lost to Iraq they decided to use proxies like Houthis and Hamas to do their dirty business. They said they were going to bomb Israel after the leader of Hamas was killed in Iran. Why haven't they retaliated? because they don't want their city to be bombed. they directed hamas and Hezbollah to attack Israel but the victims should be the aggressors because they are winning.
IjeBos: People who study the middle east, with PHD's in international diplomacy, who have lived in the Middle East and advised presidents, don't understand the middle east but someone like you, who can't even write a sentence in English, where English is your first language, does?
As usual, STFU. Go struggle and best the English Language first, before anything else. Or go to your corner and make up more lies about where you live or find new ways to hack people on Nairaland.
Shut up about a topic you have no clue about, and control your hatred so you don't speak about it. it is that simple. there are people with PhD saying men can be pregnant. see the shame PhD brought to Australia and this PhD holder