₦airaland Forum

BALLOSKI:
I'm a blind supporter of BUHARI in all measurements. I have never believed BUHARI actually said and , until for the first time I saw the writer of this article coming with this reference below.

I quite agree on most points you raised though.

I have seen those articles over and over again. There are some constants in them and I want to refer you to them.
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First and foremost, all the articles that reported that statement all quoted from one source - NAN. If PMB was on an open campaign ground in Owerri and made the statement as purported, why were there no other media outfits (print, TV, radio) that had an independent report of its own rather than all of them quoting from NAN.
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Secondly, if you go through the article you posted and all other ones that was written on the matter, you will observe the writer making a claim of what PMB said but not providing a "quote" of his exact words. The only quote attributed to PMB in that article and ALL other similar articles is when he said that it was unacceptable for $1 to be exchanging for N230. How does that statement imply that the president intends to make $1 = N1?
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If you can provide me with any other credible news source not referencing NAN and where PMB's exact words are "quoted", I'll appreciate.

BALLOSKI:
counter the article with facts to make the writer 'un-silly'.

First and foremost, the president has NEVER promised to make N1 = $1. I dare you to give me a valid reference where he was quoted. I do not mean article headlines or writer's conjectures.
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Secondly, the CBN has very little control over the value of the Naira. The Naira value depends largely on FX receipts from oil sales and the country's NET Export position. As long as oil prices stay low and we continue to have a negative balance of payments, the CBN's effort to prop up the value of the Naira will be vain and futile. If they insist, then there will be dire unintended consequences.
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Thirdly, a strong Naira is not even desirable. If the Naira becomes too strong, it will make imports cheaper than locally manufactured/produced goods which will simply kill local industries and export jobs.
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Fourthly, re-denominating the Naira by dropping two zeros will only increase the FACE value of the Naira without increasing its REAL value (purchasing power). All income and revenue will be re-denominated implying a zero effect. The cost of issuing new currency notes also needs to be considered.

Something never ceases to amaze me in this country.
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Most states in this country have hundreds of thousands of workers, they have capital projects to worry about, they have to also worry about security, and yet most states have budgets less than N100bn. The National Assembly - with less than 2500 staff, little or no capital projects - has a budget of over N120bn.
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Those legislators are indeed legislooters. Making money laundering laws and yet out rightly flouting them. The country is a joke. Now, I'm beginning to believe that Sub-Saharan Africa has no capacity to govern itself.

TBH, the communication strategy of this administration is a complete joke. No one seems clear on what the government policy and objectives are, especially as it concerns FX, Economy, Subsidy, etc. I expected this government to capitalize on the goodwill it enjoys to properly engage citizens on where we are going as a nation.
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Having said that, the NLC needs to be properly guided. It is beyond debate that Subsidy needs to go, especially in the face of dwindling government revenue. The difference between subsidy removal now and that of Jan 2012 is that, back then, the removal would have resulted in an increase in pump price from N67 to N141. Right now, subsidy removal will not result in any upward price review of PMS (infact, we hear that price might drop to as low as N85).
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Nigeria should take the opportunity of low oil prices to do the needful. Just bite the bullet and remove the damn thing once and for all and stop subsidizing rent-seeking marketers who will exploit arbitrage opportunities to make a killing.

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Court grants him bail for EFCC to release him, the DSS swoops in on him. By the time the court will grant him bail for DSS to release him, who knows which other agency will be waiting for him? The EFCC might even come back with fresh charges.
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PMB deploying the full powers of State on this guy. These guys have since been exploiting the judiciary to walk free. The government is now one step ahead of them in the game. Kudos to Malami.

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This is worse still in an oil-driven, mono- economy at a time crude oil is selling at $30 dollars per barrel and is speculated to go down to about $20 dollars or even lower in the next one year. The idea can only come when you diversify the economy and boost production capacity in manufacturing and other critical sectors, a direction, which the budget clearly failed to provide.

Metuh is most unqualified to raise the above points.
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A party that superintended over Nigeria's highest crude oil earnings in its history, and yet could not deem it fit to deploy those funds to diversify the economy. An administration that racked up so much debt over the last 5 years despite high oil prices. An administration that depleted our FR and ECA despite high oil prices.
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Was Metuh deaf not to hear that the borrowed funds will be used for Capital projects? Has Metuh not seen the Capital allocation to various ministries in the budget or does he expect the administration to outline every single budget item to him?
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What is Metuh/PDP proposal on how to revive the economy which they battered for 16yrs? I am not holding brief for this administration cos I don't know if they will be sincere and committed enough to properly deploy the borrowed funds, but but from a policy standpoint, their approach is the right one in the prevailing circumstances.
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My only grouse with the administration is the ridiculous FX controls by the CBN. For Christ sake, preserve your Reserves but why not allow Nigerians to source FX independently (at whatever cost) for their business & personal needs?

Strangely, he didn't say anything about the ONSA sludge funds.
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Can someone please tell him to come back home, we need those funds in his custody.

I couldn't agree more with BMB on this one.
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This is something that I think is grossly lacking in this administration, considering the level of expectations. The CBN FX policy and the subsidy issue are clear examples.

SIRTee15:
the govt cannot allow naira to be free flowing
if they allow that, the naira will move in only one direction.......downward depreciation of the naira against the dollar
the effect will be inflation spiraling out of control and higher interest rate from banks.
besides the F.G has gone to the international bond market to borrow from foreign lenders......
A weaker naira means larger amount of naira will be needed to service our foreign debts in dollars........
In the 2016 budget presented to the senate, 1.3 trillion naira was set aside for debt servicing.......at $1 to #197
if the naira is devalued to say $1 to #250, we may end up using close to #2 trillion to service our debt.
Moreover, it will be more difficult for F.G to purchase goods and services in the international market if the naira is weaker.
The truth is there's is no easy way..........
we squandered during the time of plenty and we must learn the hard way during the time of scarcity.
we have very few choices

The bolded is true, but you should also consider that if Naira were to depreciate to N250/$, government revenue from oil would also increase reducing the need to borrow that much.

“We would use those documents to prove what they stole, collect all the assets acquired from the proceeds and then jail them.”

His resolve is unshakable. Undermine him at your own peril.

And why has the whole Biafra struggle suddenly become about the South-South? Is SS now a region to be conquered?
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The most idiotic trend I find here on NL is IPOB bots calling anybody who opposes Biafra a Yoruba. They'd rather continue in their delusion and false sense of hope that the SS will support Biafra. They think supporting GEJ is sufficient to blackmail the SS to support their agenda

mekaboy:
Abeg EFCC should go and rest with all this their useless investigation. Who did not receive funding to rig election? All the funding used to put buhari there, did you investigate the source?

Did u investigate amechi or Fashola after alarm was raised ? Or did you ever investigate where tinubu gets his funding ?

Abeg make we hear word.

You are still not getting it bro.
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The objective of the investigations is not about election funding, it is about mismanagement of security funds by the ONSA. The only reason why elections funding is mentioned is because the funds from the ONSA has been traced to it. Except you can tell me which APC member and state benefited from the sludge funds from the ONSA.

It is important for the local refineries to function at optimal capacity, not just to appease the subsidy antagonists, but to promote import Substitution and help the country conserve its meagre foreign exchange.
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It is beyond debate that Subsidy needs to go, especially in the face of dwindling government revenue. The difference between subsidy removal now and that of Jan 2012 is that, back then, the removal would have resulted in an increase in pump price from N67 to N141. Right now, subsidy removal will not result in any upward price review of PMS (infact, we hear that price might drop to as low as N85).
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Nigeria should take the opportunity of low oil prices to do the needful. Just bite the bullet and remove the damn thing once and for all.

Your suggestion is a no brainer. How the political leaders of the north have not pushed for this up till now beggars belief.
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Of course, our "holier than thou" attitude will influence our judgement. We'd rather not offend Allah than apply common sense to protect lives & property. France banned it and heavens did not fall. It didn't make the Muslims there less religious.
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#CommonSensePlease!!

Explaining the selection of Elumelu as one of the most influential Africans, he said “In this increasingly global and interconnected world, we need champions; those game changers who are making a difference, changing perceptions and shaping our definition of what is possible.

Tony Elumelu is, probably, the only Nigerian that I really look forward to meeting in person.
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He is downright witty and business savvy. Getting mentored by him is a dream that shall become a reality.

rudebouy:
Assuming costs between 10 and 25 million to set up one, den multiply dat by 10,000. Dats like 25 billion plus 1 billion miscellaneous. Dats like 26 billion.

I think its doable but dem go gree do am?

You need to do your calculations again. N25m X 10,000 = N250bn. That is way above the Capital budget for Health.
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I personally think we should get beyond throwing arbitrary figures in the media just to provide a false sense of hope. Ministers should also be pushed to tell us how they intend to fund these lofty plans.

The hate promoted by NK makes him potentially worse than Hitler. I have listened to some of his broadcasts and the things he says clearly shows a demented psycho unfit to coexist in a sane society.
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The Quarantine he is staying right now is exactly where he belongs. The FG should stop at nothing to bring Treasonable charges against him for making such hateful & vile speeches.

Kanu was arrested in Room 303 while hibernating with a young girl, Maryam Ibezimakor

Is Maryam not Hausa/Fulani? I thought NK has been preaching hatred against those tribes?

If what the DSS claims in that report is true, then IPOB bots will have to wait much longer before seeing their rogue leader get freedom.

saxywale:
4.6% of global sales! These guyz called Carmudi.ng may be referring to tokunbo sales.

This report also says Nigerians would embrace hybrid cars cos of low fuel consumption and emmission. Since when did Nigerians start caring about emmission and environment?

Na mufu the road side mechanic and rafiu the rewire go fix an hybrid car when it breaks down.

That Carmudi projection is complete nonsense.

What is the global demand for cars and what is the combined output of our local assembly plants? Can any of the cars assembled in Nigeria be sold in the US or Europe? Can these assembly plants even make us self sufficient?

macklef:
Oga mi bevista dosnt seem to think deep ontop this matter.
If market forces is to decide, the demand for dollar will keep on increasing, infact some pipu will start hoarding the scarce material and the naira will suffer.

Aside that, think of it wen the naira suffers to lets say N600 just because u allowed market forces decide, how will these businessmen screaming up n down be able to make sales?
Who will buy an inflated item from u esp wen its not a basic comodity? Importers will have stock pile up and low sales.
What about this selfish students? What your parents would spend 200,000# to sales send you 1000usd they will have to spend #600,000 because exchange rate due to market forces is now 600.
Are you not punishing your parents?

The bottom line is, if we allow a free fall, everyone suffers including those in d diaspora, paraventure ur parents cant cope with the hike, worse yet the poor ones amongst us will just die
Like fowls cos the lest imported item of 160 in 2015 is sold for 200 now n 600 in d future wheras
Minimum wage is still N18,.000

But if you support the current policy, the evil is subisidized and both the ricjlh and the poor will have a stake to bear in d general problems.

Remember when we talk of Macro ecinomics 3tiers must be considered.
The cbn is considering those 3 tiers as it seems to prevent hyper inflation.
But if they dont work on increasing our GDP then we all die anyways.

Points noted. However, my earlier comment didn't mean for the Central Bank to allow Naira to float in a Free Market. What I meant was for the Bank to look at its Balance of Payments and make adjustments to reflect the demand/supply realities. That is what they have been doing for ages, so why the grandstanding now. Market prices are already reflecting the scarcity or the high dollar price at the parallel market. Manufacturers who demand foreign raw materials as production inputs are suffering. Companies will soon report lower earnings accompanied with downsizing. I understand the benefits of what they are trying to achieve but my view is that the NET benefit will be negative.

If they so choose to maintain that artificial rate, fine! But why not allow those who are willing to source dollars outside the Bank (at whatever rate) to do so and make transfers and payments easily. The Bank is stiffling the economy by not releasing FX and not allowing for independent sources. Trust me, the 2015 Q4 and 2016 Q1 GDP numbers from NBS will be gloomy.

The irony of everything is that at the end of the day, if oil price do not rebound next year, they will still have to do the inevitable - devalue the Naira.

Ridiculous! How about I also make a few predictions:
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(1) Oil price will drop further. Nigeria should pray hard.
(2) Not all "Men of God" will see the end of 2016. The church needs to pray for its leaders.
(3) BH will attack more churches and mosques.
(4) Some governors will loose their seat in the Tribunals.
(5) Some high profile politicians will be jailed, but they won't go down without a fight.
(6) Organized labour will threaten strike action.
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Now, how difficult was that to conjecture? MOG my a$$! And why do they always predict negative things? Obviously, so we can rush to them for the solutions.

“He (Fayose) is only trying to draw attention to himself. He wants a response and nobody has responded to him either at party level or governmental level.

“This is an eruption of an infantile mind, we don’t want to dignify him with any response on what he has been saying about President Buhari.”

When you condescend so low as to fight with a Pig, you get dragged in the mud. The pig doesn't mind the dirt because that is its natural habitat.
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I am very disappointed with Fayemi for dignifying the thug governor. He should have been ignored because that's where he belongs - Obscurity!

Nice one. When you listen to Kachikwu, he clearly looks the part.

Demdem2:
Like u said, whatever action taken at this precarious times will have negative effects. The govt of the day has chosen the one they feel they can live with and defend, I pray and believe it will work. It's a temporary set up. Let's be patient.

Apparently, patience is not a choice, it's a forced option. So, we'll have to deal with it and hope for the best.
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It is just my view that the measures are extreme and not well thought through. We will have a better idea of its impact on the economy when the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releases the 2015 Q4 and 2016 Q1 (GDP, Unemployment, Inflation, etc) numbers.

omohayek:
I'm not trying to shift blame to anyone: I'm not a political partisan, and don't consider GEJ to be any better than Buhari. It's possible that I got the details about what happened to the funds wrong, but my larger point still stands: the Nigerian economy needs to be much more isolated from the volatility of the oil market, and what Okonjo-Iweala was trying to do was fundamentally sound, even if the implementation was botched through misgovernment. Avoiding the dutch-disease syndrome and its aftermath is the same reason why Norway set up a sovereign wealth fund so long ago.

I completely agree with you about the decoupling of government revenue from oil. I just don't think NOI was committed enough to getting it done.

When they proposed the idea of a Sovereign Wealth Fund to the governors, the governors rejected the idea considering their experience with the ECA. What the governors suggested was that all funds in the Federation Account should be shared; any Governor who then finds a need to have its own state SWF can do so, while the FG can also have its SWF. It is on record that Amaechi was saving N1bn monthly from his allocation in the state SWF while oil price was high. If the FG were sincere, why did they not save a dime from its allocation in the SWF? It goes to prove that they simply wanted the governors to contribute so they can hand it over to Dasuki on the pretext of fighting BH.

omohayek:
I don't see any reason why the Naira shouldn't be allowed to freely float, given an appropriate fiscal framework. The main problem with the Nigerian economy is that the extreme swings in oil revenues have not been decoupled from government expenditure, leaving the economy exposed to much higher volatility than would be the case otherwise. If Nigerian governments set aside much more of their funds during the times when oil prices are high, the economy wouldn't have to suffer from dutch disease due to an overvalued currency as dollars rush in, and the saved-up funds could then be gradually run down whenever oil prices collapsed. This is precisely what Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala proposed with her Excess Crude Account, and it was working until the governors started badgering for it to be run down so that the FG could bail them out of their own financial recklessness, and the rest squandered on electioneering.

Going forward, Nigeria could enjoy a free float with little depreciation, as well as lower economic volatility overall, if the ECA were revived and used as originally intended, and budgets were drawn up with much more realistic benchmarks for the likely value of oil. The difficulty, as always in this country, is the short time horizons of politicians who only care about fixing their own immediate personal problems, no matter the long term costs to society as a whole.

I'll focus on the part of your comment talking about ECA and NOI.
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I do not agree with you trying to shift the blame from the FG to governors. President Obasanjo paid off $12bn to the Paris Club to enable them write off our $30bn debt. In spite of this huge payout, he still left over $60bn in the Foreign Reserves and over $10bn in ECA. Mind you, the average oil price during his tenure was $60.

The next administration witnessed unprecedented high oil prices. First $147 in the summer of 2008 and then over $100 between 2011 & 2014 and yet all we had was $30bn in FR and $2bn in ECA. The problem the governors had with the ECA was that the FG kept unilaterally withdrawing from the account without recourse to other stakeholders (the governors), so they had to revolt and demand payout.

morounkola:
The same people who taught us demand and supply also mentioned things like monetary policy and fiscal policy. My brother, it is tough but for this economy to move forward these actions need to be taken.

My dear, I agree that tough decisions are required in these precarious times, but I think those decisions need not be draconian. It is my humble opinion that the CBN has not chosen the most appropriate policy action regarding this issue and I am willing to bet that if oil prices do not rebound next year, they will eventually do the inevitable.

1freshdude:
You don dey speak in thongs I think? cause I cant see the relationship between the question I asked and what you answered!

Finally its not as easy as you guys think, the guys making policies at CBN are not dunce, cut them some slacks!

My bad. You win!