₦airaland Forum

drss:
at d bolded Ngozi Iweala was very right. It was the national assembly who needed more money that pecked oil price bench mark at $78 from NOI's $73. In the end the senate were proved wrong. International oil price later fell to below $78pb.
Ngozi's bench mark of $73 was the more logical one compared to that of d national assembly.

Oh really?!

Maybe you need to go back and check your records. She first started with $78, then $73, then $67. It is the National Assembly that effectively brought down the final approved budget to $53. I'll check related articles and post the link here for you.

PapaBrowne:
Apparently we have the wrong Finance Minister.
In times of Economic crisis, you need the best of heads and this lady doesn't appear like one of them.

Borrow locallyThe question is when the local economy is comatose, how would the populace buy bonds to borrow the FG money. You buy bonds when there is excess liquidity and you want to save long term. There is no money in the system, hence there is gonna be little or no investment in bonds. Worse still, Nigeria has been taken off the Emerging Markets Bond Index, so no Foreign money coming into our bonds. When that happened, the FG said, to hell with JP Morgan.


Economic management is the job of an Economist. This lady, although with a basic education in Economics is an Accountant by experience and nothing more. The ministry of Finance manages our economy. She would have been better off as an Auditor General. Financial Management in economic terms is a totally different ball game. And bad enough, her highest degree is a Post Graduate Diploma.

You set out a 6 trillion Naira budget with an oil price benchmark of $38 when oil is trading at $36 and going downhill. First error.
You decide you will raise a chunk of you finance form custom duties and taxes. You fail to realise that because the economy is weak and dollar rate is high, there would be much less importation, hence reduction in your income from customs.
Also you forget that taxes are on profits, so with a weak economy most companies would declare losses which means they would have no tax to give to you.

I fear for Nigeria. APC has already started out on a terribly wrong footing. First it appear to have no direction at all. And secondly it has the wrong kind of people running its affairs. In a time of crisis, you need the best brains AND especially those fit for purpose. Kemi Adeosun is not capable of running our economy especially in a time like this.

You are being too critical, son. Kemi may not have the same pedigree as NOI, but she cannot be discounted before she even begins the job. She will be working with an Economic Team that will include Udo Udoma (Budget & Planning), Emanalah (Trade & Investments), etc. These are really experienced folks.

On borrowing locally - most bond buyers are usually institutional investors like Pension Funds, Banks, Investment houses, etc. With the CBN's expansive monetary policy of reducing CRR & MPR, then some of the extra liquidity will find its way to bond purchases.

Nobody can predict for sure what oil price will be tomorrow. The MOF and her team can only estimate what the average price will be over the next 1 year. They could be right, they could be wrong. Even the best analysts make wrong calls. NOI, last year, presented a budget with oil price estimated at $73 and she argued that she used the 5 & 10 yr weighted moving average to arrive at her estimate. In the end, she was dead wrong.

Most of the funds expected from Customs & Excise Duties are going to be from efficiency in management & collections.

Give Kemi & APC a break. The party inherited a battered economy from the PDP. NOI & PDP should have utilized the opportunity of high oil prices to position and diversify the economy, but alas, they squandered away everything. And you have the effrontery to abuse a man who is trying to clean up the mess with very little oil revenue.

How befitting?! A depraved soul like FFK now trying to be the Conscience of the society.

I can't take him serious because nearly all his comments of late are laced with prejudice, hatred & frustration. He still cannot come to terms with the fact that his pay master lost what they had considered a Sure Bet.

The likes of FFK have been as much of a problem to Nigeria as anyone else. He is debased and chronically deficient in character. He has no moral authority to point fingers at others.

IzonOwei:
pdp is not the problem..don't you get it...Our politicians irrespective of their parties are..We should do the right thing as citizens by either lynching them or unanimously revolting to bring back the sense of accountability in our leaders..A large chunk of pdp members are now in the apc. ..even the ones who were in other parties were thieves all along..

Couldn't have said it any better.

Why people blame PDP the most is that they were in charge of the Federal Government, and so had the most responsibility of putting things right. But instead of helping the situation, they rather accentuated it by institutionalizing corruption. For instance, right now most people are not even talking about the magnitude of corruption that happens in the states - everyone is focusing on PMB and his administration.

A Mercedes Benz S550 2016 goes for $95,650, which translates to N23, 912,500

That is the base model. Chances are that they'll be going for top of the range model which could cost over $150,000.

The total number of legislatures and legislative staff is less than 2,500. How those number of persons gets a budget of N120b, while a state (with a population of over 5m) has an annual budget of less than N80b is beyond me. Also, the budget of the state includes capital projects while that of NASS is basically recurrent. Just plain ridiculous!

Pidggin:

Why is it that APC never accepts requests for live debates? I recall the president even refused to attend presidential debates, why why why

And where were you in 2011, when CPC and ACN attended live presidential debate, and yet PDP was conspicuously absent?

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Fayose should pray in God's name that the Supreme Court does not review the case and find him guilty.

Where is Peter Odili on that chart?

Vikkie14:
you asked for money to pay your final year exam, i gave you the money immediately. But, behind my back, you went to a shopping mall to get some household equipment. Who's to blame?
Dasuki asked for money to get weapons for the army, Jonathan gave the order for the money. Dasuki spent part of money and deliver the rest to the military. Who's to blame?

Jonathan was a direct beneficiary of the looted funds, so he can't feign ignorance. The money that was paid for media campaign and prayers, who was it meant to benefit - Dasuki or Jonathan?

It is preposterous to think that the President will allow his acclaimed reputation of honesty and incorruptibility to be tarnished...by accepting a questionable monetary compensation from a discredited regime.

Mai Gaskiya!

I heard that some young folks used Baba's name to mobilize funds to buy car for him. On taking the car to Baba, he asked them how they came about the vehicle. After they narrated their fund raising escapade to him, Baba ordered his security guards to lock them up in the guard room - for using his good name to go and beg for money.

Such is the Integrity of the man we are talking about here. Something our "Hero" cannot have in two life times.

oduastates:
Fani kayode has no loyalty to anyone or any issue
He attacks and attack until he is regarded as a dangerous irritant and Invited to come and eat.
He is simply advertising his skills

Only unfortunate thing this time around is that he is advertising his "skills" to the wrong target market. PMB has no place for debased characters like FFK.

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That does not tell the whole story. What if Crude rallies back to $70, will Nigerians be able to pay N160/ltr on a consistent basis?

I’m of the PDP but that government had reached a point of impunity. “The level of impunity is being shown by the investigations that are going on indicating that we needed somebody who promised us that he was going to fight corruption and to bring sanity to government expenditure.

Couldn't have said it any better. The PDP had so bastardized our sense of decency, that a lot of people had come to accept impunity and corruption as normal. In fact, you would be seen as stup¡d if you do not conform.

We truly needed someone with character and will to forcefully RESET our brains and conscience back to the right path. For this, PMB will remain a HERO in Nigeria's history, not some heroic criminal of a certain people.

Tough times awaits. Now is the time for a robust diversification of the economy.

The Saudis and Russians have Reserves of over $650 & $350b respectively, so they can survive the tough period. But alas in Nigeria, we deployed our meagre Reserves (which OBJ and Yar'Adua built up) for the election of a certain man. His election might not have been worth the blood of any Nigerian, but it was sure worth every penny of our National Treasury. Hero Indeed!

ONSA making N500m payment for Media Campaign of PDP?!

IBB thinks the clueless one was inexperienced, but I think the man was just plain indolent and wicked. He hid under his humble demeanor to perpetrate fraud of unimaginable proportions.

He told us his shoeless story and how his ambition was not worth the blood of any Nigerian. What he did not tell us was that his ambition was worth every penny in our national treasury. Apparently, he was also determined to ensure he had enough shoes by the time he goes back to the creeks.

Let it be known - if President Buhari does not recover every looted funds and jail every looter, then I will be withdrawing my support for him.

The Federal Executive Council (FEC) has over 10 intelligent lawyers (10 ministers + VP), so I believe they should all make inputs on how to best prosecute these criminals.

drberry:
Having read everything, I think the Senators canvassing for a heavy borrowing are right on this one.

To provide some perspective on the debt debate, let's consider the following:
(1) The debt to GDP ratio of the US is around 100% (i.e. over $17tn)
(2) The debt to GDP ratio of Japan is over 200%
(3) The debt to GDP ratio of Nigeria is currently around 2%
(4) If Nigeria borrows N50tn ($250bn), the debt to GDP ratio will be around 50%

The question is, if already developed & industrialized countries are taking up more debt to continue developing, does it not make even more sense for an underdeveloped country to rack up more debt to also further its industrialization and development?

On the surface, this might look as the logical thing to do, except that there are two major problems:
(1) An underdeveloped country has weak institutions to check corruption, so most of the funds might end up in the vaults of certain WITCHES, leaving future generations with a huge debt burden.
(2) The revenue of those developed countries is sufficient to service their debt repayment and their debt interest is very low (under 2%). At an interest rate of 13%, a debt of N50tn in Nigeria will require over N6tn annually for interest payment alone. When you consider that in the proposed 2016 budget, total revenue is projected at a paltry N3.8tn, then you can appreciate the folly in the Senators' proposal.

So, we need to first expand our revenue base before thinking of more debt, else investors will perceive the debt to have a high default and repayment risk. This perception will cause investors to demand for high interest to compensate for the risk or shun our bonds completely.

Our senators need to curb their enthusiasm, and look at hard facts before coming up with emotionally charged proposals.

Government policies and strategies are being rolled out gradually.

Slowly but Surely, this administration will take us THERE!

Holak:
National Assembly only approves budgets which was done. They don't approve particular sources of funds that should be used for that fund. Nothing amiss on the part of NOI except for propaganda purposes.

I'm sure you've heard of the term "Supplementary Budget".

When the Executive has the need to spend money that was not iinitially budgeted for, what they (ought to) do is approach NASS and present them with a Supplementary Budget detailing what needs to be done and how the funds will be sourced. The funds in question is outside what was initially budgeted for security/defense.

What NOI and others did was pure abuse of office and it was done deliberately to divert the funds. If their intentions were genuine, they would have approached NASS, after all, they've done so severally in the past.

An important issue has not been addressed by that response: Was the Funds budgeted for or was it extra-budgetary expenditure? If there was genuine need to use the funds, why not approach the National Assembly to inform them that there has been an inflow of funds and that they should approve for it to be used to combat terrorism.

I am seriously beginning to think NOI was indeed complicit in most of the corrupt transaction that happened during the last administration.

adconline:
1:Needless to lecture me on budget process since my earlier statement that appropriation is a prerogative of NASS hasnt been proven wrong by you. The executive prepares the budget and it's the NASS that determines who gets what and how much. It also sets crude oil benchmark.NASS has the final say on the size of the national budget.

2: VP, Osibanjo said that 2016 budget would be N8tn

https://www.nairaland.com/2717073/fg-plans-n8tn-budget-2016

3: Your numbers are missing key ingredient= source of income" you can't spend what you don't have. You alluded in your previous post that this budget proposition lacks details as the govt hasnt clearly stated the NEW revenue stream. Until then, facts aren't on your side, but sheer speculative opinion!

https://www.pwc.com/ng/en/assets/pdf/nigerias-2015-budget.pdf
http://www.yourbudgit.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/2015-Publication-BUGET.pdf

It's beyond the realm of your subconscious existentialism to infer who might be my hero.. You mere insinuation that I speak from a position of political gravitation instead of you to enunciate your "beloved facts" to withstand any intellectual, statistical, political and peer-questioned scrutiny, is indicative of how we have raised a generation with chronic encephalon docility.

(1) Budget is never the prerogative of NASS, but that of the Executive. For something as sensitive as national budget, the constitution makes is necessary for NASS to review whatever the Executive has prepared and make inputs - sometimes that may result in alteration of the budget but most times they just approve it the way it comes. It's like saying that just because the President sends Ministers to NASS for approval, then Ministerial appointment is the prerogative of NASS.

(2) The VP said that they were planning to propose a budget of N7tn - N8tn. That was a statement made over a month ago. Chances are that the dynamics of what they were considering might have changed and they had to adapt to new realities. Oil price has dropped further since that time and MTN fine has also reduced by over N250bn within that period. There could be a lot more that has changed that has made it imperative to review the budget downwards. How does adaptation amount to failure - if you know anything about economic management. In any case, as I said earlier, that comment wasn't a policy statement by government.

(3) I never said the budget lacked details, I only said I am yet to see the details. As you might have been aware by now, details of the proposed budget are beginning to come out, and by the time it gets to NASS it would have been in the public domain for everyone to analyze.

(4) Your resort to verbosity in a desperate bid to appear to have superior intellect does not impress me. You can save yourself the stress and keep that for those in your league.

adconline:
Dear Dr Milton Friedman Keynes,
Facts are sacrosanct, but opinions are free. Please lay out the facts without ur opinion for ignorant me to understand

Ok, now we are getting somewhere.

(1) Before Budget proposal is taken to NASS for approval, the Executive (FEC) will sit together and discuss it extensively to make sure all ministries are properly captured. They then approve the final document before sending it to the National Assembly.

(2) I cannot remember the government making a policy statement about proposing an N8T budget. Somebody in the cabinet may have insinuated but it wasn't a definitive policy statement

(3) Instead of trying to find straws to cling on to, you should have responded to the figures I presented in my comment. Facts are Sacred!

Your hero was a monumental failure!

adconline:
FEC doesn't approve budget.. GMB is still acting like we are in a military era. Appropriation is as exclusive preserve of the NASS, so GMB can't anticipate to spend money that's not captured as an income in the budget. From N8tn to N6tn= just 25% cut without any scrutiny??! Reality is now setting in!! We going see!!!

Quite frankly, sometimes silence can be an effective way to hide ignorance. You can't comprehend what I'm about to write, so let me not bother.

Dieziani, Dasuki, Okpo, etc

The fear of Baba is the beginning of terminal illness. But No! You guys must not die, not until we have fully recovered all our stolen loot from you. You guys can then rot in jail for all I care.

SLOWLY but SURELY...all WITCHES will be HUNTED down. Doubt Baba at your own peril.

Dokpesi had since approached Justice Gabriel Kolawole of the high court, praying for protection of his fundamental rights which he said was being threatened by the anti-graft agency.

Isn't it funny that any time corruption charges are raised against these criminals, instead of defending themselves and proving their innocence, they rather run to the court and try to hide under Fundamental Human Rights. The judiciary must not allow itself to be used to protect these criminals.

To be honest, if you had any modicum of economic intellect, you wouldn't post such trash. Simply because you already have a prejudiced opinion, you now go out to find any information that will validate your prejudice. You failed woefully this time, man.

Is the new government predicting oil price? Do you have any idea of what they call ESTIMATE in accounting? Are you suddenly becoming aware of this method of budgeting after your hero lost?

Try and avoid discussions on the ECONOMY and focus on your IPOB agenda. I am even ashamed of myself for condescending so low to respond to this junk of a post.

IzonOwei:
we would solve our problems devoid of all the leeches who have from inception designed nigeria to not benefit the niger delta...we dont want the chicken change that gets to the niger delta, we want full resource control...our governors have messed up in the past that doesnt mean we can't get it right as a group...but with the whole of nigeria still waiting for the oil which you said is becoming unfashionable we would retrogress more...too many distractions...

I repeat youre a fraud and not a niger deltan for not seeking trur federalism but hoping on an old slim man to get it right for you...

You want to keep being a slave,,,...castigate the niger delta leaders and fight for your rights...rather you still want to hide under the hausa umbrella...nonsense...

You are wrong son. In theory, nothing would please me more than full resource control, but in practice I know that it will all be a sham since the governors will become local emperors looting away everything. Before you know it, the local communities will want full resource control.

There are are developed countries who attained greatness without any Natural resource, and yet there are many African countries with abundant natural resources that are still grossly underdeveloped. That should tell you where the problem & solution lies. South Sudan broke away with their oil and yet today they top the list of failed States.

Before oil, were we not all depending on other cash crops - mainly from the north & west? Even within the Oil producing states, is it all L.Gs and communities that have oil? Assuming your community belongs among those that don't have, will you consider it fair for the core oil communities to want to control everything?

IzonOwei:
i] have always pushed for true federalism...and from your replies I can swear youre not from the niger delta because if you were you would share my sentiments... ...you are south westerner or a northerner....go hide your head somewhere..you should root for what would benefit your people and not hoping on one old bigot whose people would rather die than allow the niger delta attain full resource control...let the country practice regionalism and let the other agencies youve mentioned push the other non oil producing states forward,...rubbish....

Gejs loss is not my problem, the fools like you who would sit back to wait for an hausa man to solve your problems using your own resources is...youre an enemy of the niger delta if you ever are one(I suspect youre lying through your teeth right now)..

I will not join issues with you about ethnicity - you can believe what you want to believe. It is plain myopia to play the victim card and blame others for your woes.

The money that comes to the ND from FAAC & NDDC is more than what goes to the entire north (- Kano), and yet the region is grossly underdeveloped. Is it the Hausas or the Yorubas that have been governing the region? You are scared to look your leaders in the eye and demand accountability. Have your governors attempted to look for any other source of revenue apart from oil?

You are looking for solutions to your problems in the wrong place, and that is you may not find it soon. How much did the ND region invest in developing the Oil resources? Easy son, even your oil is soon becoming unfashionable.

IzonOwei:
so with all of this why havent we practiced true federalism??...why??...you know the answer....I want you to prove to yourself that this government remains clueless and still wants to depend on oil solely even if it sells 1 dollar per barrel...

No matter how you blame gej who by the way through the confab has pushed for true fedralism ,nigeria would never get it right using the same template...lets wait and see where all the money will come from..


This budget as reported still hangs on oil..

I can understand your sentimental attachment to the Oil issue, and that is because you think it is your commodity. For the records, I am from Akwa Ibom State and the last time I checked we were contributing the most to Federation Account.

There is absolutely nothing wrong if the budget hangs on oil. It has always been that way, even while GEJ was president. When GEJ was there, how many times did you speak about true federalism? It is obvious you are still pained by his defeat, but I would advise you to move on. He was a disgrace to his people and the entire SS. The country under PMB will be better for you, except you were a direct beneficiary of the corruption under GEJ.

IzonOwei:
this government still has not clearly defined how to rake in revenue from other sources because they are either clueless or sentimental...please with all sincerity tell me the likely sources other than oil that the fg hopes to get monies to fund the budget??...remember this government is also hoping on gas...as a supporter of the present government can you envisage realistic plans this government might have to generate much revenue(outside oil ad gas) and how they plan to go about it...

Fact is that no matter how much information I present to you, you are still going to screen such information through your prejudice. You will always believe what you have made up your mind to believe, and not necessarily the facts available.

Nigeria has other revenue generating agencies like Customs, Ports Authority, NNPC, NIMASA, FAAN, NCC, FIRS, etc. The problem in the past was that most of the revenue generated by these agencies were diverted within government circles and never got to federation account. These monies alone can contribute significantly to the FG budget, which is what I think has happened now under PMB.

Kindly note that South Africa with a much lesser GDP than Nigeria has a Federal Budget 5x that of Nigeria; their taxes alone is more than what Nigeria generates from oil. So that should tell you that the potential is there in Nigeria to generate more revenue, if only the government will be committed to transparency - something that was grossly lacking under GEJ.

IzonOwei:
please explain the bolded wih facts and stop blabbing,,...because what we both read up there is that the budget is highly hinged on oil production and sales...so explain to me how the economy is already diversified with respect to the budget...thank you...

(1) If you multiply the production rate of 2.2mbpd by $38/bbl, you can find the total $ revenue per day.
(2) Multiply the value in (1) above by 365, then you get the annual $ revenue
(3) Multiply the value in (2) above by 60%, then you get accruable $ revenue to Nigeria (IOCs and other JV partners share the other 40%)
(4) Multiply the value in (3) above by 54%, then you get FG $ share of the revenue
(5) Multiply the value in (4) above by N197, then you get the Naira value of FG revenue from crude oil
(6) Find the percentage of (5) above of N6T, then you will observe that crude oil is not that significant in Nigerian budget the way it used to be in the past.

The import of this is that FG is expecting revenue from other sources. I do not know what those other sources are until I see the full budget breakdown.

Kindly note that the steps above are a bit crude and has not taken into consideration certain circumstances, but it will give you a very close estimate of the actual.

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Cheers bro