Bevista's Posts
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Eluwilussit:@ the bolded. You want me to outlive God? ![]() |
omohayek:Fair points raised. --- The reason why IMF will rein in spending in the debtor country is to ensure prompt and regular repayment of their loan, and not to help the country. After the Global Financial Crisis, the US, UK, Japan and Europe did not follow Austerity or cut spending to put themselves on sustainable path. Instead they indulged in unprecedented spending through Quantitative Easing (QE) and Bond Purchases. --- The IMF austerity proposal usually sound logical to the untrained mind but end up being counterproductive in the long run. I don't want to go into the MAMSER and other austerity programs of the IBB government which ended up impoverishing the country. --- I'll reserve further comments on the Rothschilds subject. |
...where Jonathan allegedly persuaded the militant leader to “come to Southern Ijaw and help Sylva.”And what kind of help exactly could Mrs Jonathan be asking Ateke Tom to render? --- If this story is true, then I would consider the Jonathans to be very weak and docile. This would be a real political miscalculation, except they are trying to sulk up to Buhari. Who knows? With all the Dasuki-Gate characters pointing to GEJ approvals, it might time "scratch my back, I scratch yours". |
omohayek:IMF conditionalities are generally known to stiffle economic growth in debtor countries. I'm sure you've heard about the popular AUSTERITY conditions. --- In modern macroeconomics, it has been proven that tightening during recession simply leads to "Austerity Trap". During times of recession or economic slowdown, expansionary monetary/fiscal policies are needed to spur growth. So, they must not come here to preach Austerity to us. --- As for the Rothschilds Conspiracy Theory, there's too much to talk about, so I would rather not start |
kayfra:Thank goodness we still have folks with sound macroeconomic understanding. The president needs to steer clear of directly interfering with monetary policies. He should focus on getting his cabinet to come up with appropriate fiscal policies that covers Agriculture, Solid Minerals, Industries, Trade, etc. --- This government communication strategy is so out of sync. The government should leverage the goodwill it enjoys by effectively engaging with citizens about the direction of the government and the whole country. This is 2016 not 1980. This days, Capital move with the speed of light. Once there is uncertainty, investors immediately move to the next best destination. |
The president, by training and experience, has limited Economic knowledge. I expect the the Minister of Finance & the CBN Governor to be on top of their game for such meetings. They should interrogate any IMF proposal to ensure that every inhibiting conditions and clauses are removed before they sign anything. Ignorance or Sabotage should not be an excuse for mortgaging the future of Nigerians to the Rothschilds' Dynasty. |
kayfra:Just perfect! Couldn't dispute anything you wrote there. |
phemray:The problem is that we are building the whole country around one man - PMB. What happens when he is not there anymore? Will you still trust the next president to exercise his powers without checks? --- Democracy is not perfect. Infact, in certain circumstances it could be worse than military rule. Why it is still the preferred system of governance is because of the systemic checks & balances it provides. It is up to the leaders & citizens to make it work. |
baralatie:There are two sides to the devaluation you referenced above. If the government devalues, cost of fuel imports will increase, but government revenue will also increase since every dollar earned from crude oil sales will now be exchanged for N240 instead of N197. This will not only benefit FG, but will also benefit state governments who are currently finding it difficult to pay salaries. |
modath:*lol* @ your "longthroat" analogy. --- Back to serious business. There are a number of constraints regarding your account to account transfer explanation. First, the malam cannot even pay the dollars into his account. Even if you sold it to a BDC, they would still not pay it into their account since they would not be able to account for it with CBN. Secondly, even if they were able to pay it into their account and then transfer it to me, I still cannot transfer it out since it is considered local transfer. It is only when I get a direct international inflow that I am permitted to make international outbound transfer. --- Your sense of patriotism is well noted. |
modath:The divergence between the official exchange rate and the parallel market is becoming extreme, indicating a dislocation in the market. It is true that part of the divergence is due to speculative demand but it is also true that a large part is due to macroeconomic fundamentals. --- The only reason the price in the parallel market can converge back towards the official rate is for oil price to rebound above $50. Failing that, the CBN's hand will be forced. --- Much of the cash $$$ in the system are not necessarily illicit. If your brother in the US sends you $50k to help build a house. You withdraw the $$ in cash because you want to get a good rate from your malam friend. Are you aware that that particular $50k has been sterilized, because I cannot buy it from the malam and use it for my import business?? --- So, it is true that relaxing the policy might give room for invaluable outflows, but it will also allow for a lot of legitimate business/trade transactions. |
modath:Two Exchange Rates: The government recently permitted pilgrims to access exchange rate @ N160 while the official rate was N197. The government can have a special rate for essential items while the rest of us can access the other rate. --- I'm not proposing FLOATING the Naira and allowing it completely to the vagaries of Free Market. What I am saying is for the CBN to look at its Balance of Payments and adjust the rate to a more realistic level. That is what they have been doing for ages, so I don't know why they are grandstanding now. The rate in the parallel market can give an indication of what the equilibrium rate should be. Once you discount speculative demand, an ideal rate can be found around N240 - N250 range. --- Is it not better to encourage those with "stockpiled" dollars to release it into the banking system where it can be tracked and it can help facilitate trade? Right now, those monies are not adding any value to the Economy. Sooner or later, they may find their way out through our porous borders. |
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Kay17:If I understand your point, you are saying that there is no fundamental difference between the methods of the US government and that of the Nigerian government. MORALLY, that might be true but LEGALLY, there is a world of difference. It won't make sense for us to go into all the nuances of Morality and Legality on this platform. The Constitution is more than a mere book. It is to Law what the Bible/Quran is to Morals. It maintains order in the society else if everyone has his opinion on issues, there will be total chaos. |
The hard fact is that all accused persons will rope GEJ in by claiming that he approved all the transactions. Their hope will be that they will get soft-landing as PMB tries to protect the former president. But they will be wrong for 2 reasons. First, GEJ made those approvals to be used for legitimate purposes (atleast on official records). They will not have any documented proof of GEJ telling them to misappropriate the funds. Secondly, who tells them that PMB cannot turn the heat on GEJ if the evidences against him are overwhelming? |
I firmly believe that the President goofed wrt his comments regarding flouting court orders. A simple explanation that they were held on other charges would have been a lot better than the president's explanation. --- For those hailing the president because of "the end justifies the means" mentality, there is a terrible danger of precedence. PMB's intentions might be genuine and patriotic, what if a dubious president comes in and uses this precedence to outrightly flout laws and the Constitution? --- For those comparing this with Guantanamo Bay, what you need to realize is that the American Presidency did not flout court orders or the Constitution, they simply acted smartly and figured a way to workaround the Constitution. They went to have a terrorist detention facility (gitmo bay) in Cuba where the human rights laws of US is not binding. The Nigerian govt needs to start thinking and acting intelligently rather than resort to brute force due to lazy thinking. --- I strongly believe that the presidency should do everything within its powers to jail NK, Dasuki, et al, but outrightly flouting court orders is - in my book - way out of line. It is important not to weaken democratic values in the process of doing the right thing. --- "Power corrupts! Absolute power corrupts absolutely" |
BALLOSKI:First and foremost, the story was carried by major tabloids, particularly The Nation newspaper. Secondly, the government has not refuted the story. Finally, though I did not watch the presidential media chat, I am told that the president was confronted with the issue and his explanation was that the cars are not part of his official fleet but statutory purchases for use to carry foreign Heads of States. |
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I firmly believe that the President goofed wrt his comments regarding flouting court orders. A simple explanation that they were held on other charges would have been a lot better than the president's explanation. --- For those hailing the president because of "the end justifies the means" mentality, there is a terrible danger of precedence. PMB's intentions might be genuine and patriotic, what if a dubious president comes in and uses this precedence to outrightly flout laws and the Constitution? --- For those comparing this with Guantanamo Bay, what you need to realize is that the American Presidency did not flout court orders or the Constitution, they simply acted smartly and figured a way to workaround the Constitution. They went to have a terrorist detention facility (gitmo bay) in Cuba where the human rights laws of US is not binding. The Nigerian govt needs to start thinking and acting intelligently rather than resort to brute force due to lazy thinking. --- I strongly believe that the presidency should do everything within its powers to jail NK, Dasuki, et al, but outrightly flouting court orders is - in my book - way out of line. It is important not to weaken democratic values in the process of doing the right thing. --- "Power corrupts! Absolute power corrupts absolutely" |
Get the arguments right. We are part of TSA but opposed to Executive control of NASS, Judiciary and INEC except as the Constitution allows.Well said Mr. Dogara. --- On other matters, the current FX policy is the most hypocritical policy yet by this administration. A government that is practically forcing everyone else to stop importing is, however, very comfortable to allocate over $18m (N3.6bn) to import foreign (BMW) cars. Why not lead by example and patronize locally made Innoson cars. If you have quality and safety concerns there, why not atleast, patronize locally assembled foreign cars like Peugeot, Hyundai, etc. |
Over the last few months, the Central Bank of Nigeria has implemented a number of controls regarding FX transactions in the country, which is a direct result of the lower FX revenue from oil sales. Here, we shall discuss those policies and their implications to the larger economy. POLICY BASICS Some of the CBN's FX policy controls include: (1) Ban on deposits of cash foreign currencies into Nigerian domiciliary accounts (2) Exclusion of certain import items from having access to the official CBN exchange rate (3) Limits (and possibly outright ban) on the use of Naira Mastercard for ATM withdrawals outside the country, as well as online/POS transactions. --- POLICY JUSTIFICATION Some of the reasons for the Central Bank’s position regarding FX transactions include: (1) Protection of Foreign Reserves: Low FX ($) receipts due to declining oil prices has made it imperative for the CBN to protect the FR for use for importation of essential items. With FR standing at $29bn, Nigeria can barely meet 7 months of imports. (2) Defending the Naira: With declining FX receipts into the Foreign Reserves, the common course of action to protect Reserves is for the CBN to devalue the Naira to control demand. However, the CBN has chosen to maintain the existing exchange rate by eliminating demand. (3) Import-Substitution: It is part of government strategy to encourage use of locally manufactured/produced items instead of spending little FX on mindless exports (4) Anti-money laundering: Due to dollarization of the economy in the wake of the last presidential elections, it is the desire of government to check illicit outflows of such FX funds. The Dasukigate revelations on how FX cash was moved from the CBN only goes to reinforce this fact. --- UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF POLICY While there are noble and Nationalistic objectives for the CBN to implement the various FX controls, it seems there could be unintended consequences that may be counter-productive to the larger economy, for instance: (1) As many businesses (whose operations-chain depend on foreign inputs) find it difficult to access FX for their transactions, chances are that they will cut production resulting in lower corporate profits, lower tax to governments, and possibly personnel lay-offs. (2) According to a recent report by the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industries (LCCI), private businesses have lost over N1.4tn as a result of the FX constraints being experienced in the country over the last 6 months. The LCCI, in its 2015 economic review, said it’s 2015 Q3 business environment review showed that FX restrictions by the CBN was one of the costliest policies in Nigeria in recent years. (3) The numbers from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) puts 2015 Q3 GDP at 2.84% compared to 6.23% in 2014 Q3. The 2015 Q4 and 2016 Q1 numbers are likely to be even worse as businesses continue to hurt under the CBN’s FX policies. (4) As private citizens find it difficult to fund their legitimate personal FX transactions, there is bound to be backlash on the government. The question would be why should private citizens be the ones paying the price for the recklessness of politicians? (5) Prices in the market place are already reflecting the exchange rate of the parallel market, which completely defeats the inflation control objective of the CBN. Even banks now clear card transactions at over N250/$. (6) Foreign Investors will continue to shun Nigeria for fear of not being able to access FX when they want to exit the country. This will continue to cause the the Stock Market to drop in value. (7) There are chances of illegal outflows of FX cash through the borders. The CBN would be better off tracking these transactions through the banking system rather than allow them flow out through the borders. --- GOVERNMENT POLICY INCOHERENCE & HYPOCRISY The import substitution objective of government is very noble and a good way of shifting the FX demand/supply equilibrium in favour of the Naira. The problem with the current approach is that there is zero clarity on what the government policies are regarding the economy, agriculture, industrialization, etc. The government is putting the cart before the horse by first placing bans before properly articulating its policy objectives. The Presidency's intention to spend N3.6bn ($18m) on foreign cars smacks of hypocrisy. If the government truly believes that local consumption is the way forward, why does the government not lead by example by patronizing locally made cars (Innoson). If they are concerned about quality and safety, why not patronize locally assembled foreign cars (like Hyundai, Peugeot, etc)? --- CBN POWER TO DEFEND THE NAIRA IS LIMITED An appropriate Naira exchange rate is determined largely by FX receipts from oil sales as well as the country’s Balance of Payments. As long as oil prices continue to stay low and we continue to have a negative NET Export balance, the value of the Naira is bound to eventually depreciate. Until we can reverse the FX demand/supply dynamics by, in the first instance, producing & consuming more of locally made items, and in the second instance, promoting export to earn more FX, the Naira value is always going to be determined by factors outside the control of monetary authorities. Even the LCCI believes that a “correction towards real effective exchange rate in the form of exchange rate adjustment is likely in Q1 2016”. The reality is that, sooner or later, the CBN is bound to do the needful (Naira devaluation). It is not a sign of weakness, it is simply responding to market realities. --- POLITICAL INFLUENCE ON MONETARY POLICIES The president’s comments during his budget presentation to NASS as well as his recent media chat shows that the CBN FX policies is laced with the proverbial “voice of Esau and hand of Jacob”. Political considerations are usually at variance with monetary policy decisions; that is why Central Banks worldwide are setup to have a good measure of independence to enable them carryout their functions professionally without political influence. No matter how genuine and noble it may be, it is my candid view that it is wrong for the president to have a DEFINITIVE position on monetary policy matters. Political leaders will typically have a one-dimensionally view of issues, while monetary authorities are trained to have a multi-dimensional view on macroeconomic issues. This does not mean that monetary policies and political considerations cannot be aligned for national interest. POLICY ALTERNATIVES FOR THE CBN Monetary policies are usually not an exact science, but more of a balancing act with a lot of variables and moving pieces. Monetary authorities would typically focus on a few variables depending on their priorities. However, an appropriate policy would normally account for as many variables as possible while ensuring that the NET impact on the economy is positive. Alternative policy for the CBN to consider without hurting the Foreign Reserves include: (1) Officially depreciate the Naira to arrive at a new equilibrium demand/supply price. The rate at the parallel market can be used as a forward rate to guide the CBN in determining the new exchange rate. This will help the CBN maintain its Foreign Reserves position, while also helping to improve government revenue (especially for states). (2) After the depreciation, the CBN can maintain another exchange rate (N197) for essential items like fuel imports and critical raw materials. Other non-essential items can then access FX at the new rate. This will ensure that the bank still maintains its inflation objective. (3) If the Central Bank cannot do any of the above, they should – atleast – allow Nigerians to be able to source FX (at whatever rate available) to make legitimate transfers and payments regarding their business and personal needs. The bank should lift the ban on FX cash lodgments into bank accounts. With the recently enforced BVN, they can track all outflows to determine those they consider illicit. (4) There should be no limits placed on naira mastercards. Banks should be allowed to source FX independently and to clear card transaction at what they consider an appropriate exchange rate. (5) The CBN should also ensure that, henceforth, its policies are properly communicated. Such communication will include what the policy is about and what the policy is intended to achieve. They should adopt “forward guidance” to ensure that investors and the market are not kept in the dark about the Bank’s plans and policies. Uncertainty breeds volatility! The CBN FX policy is similar to a scenario where there is not enough PMS in the country and yet the government fixes price at N87, while also making it impossible for any marketer to independently source for the product. Now, imagine that the government demands that everyone buy from only NNPC stations at the prevailing rate, simply because they do not want transport cost to go up, thus leading to a rise in prices of items in the market. Most of you will agree that this would be complete nonsense, since most business and transporters will find it difficult to buy the scarce commodity at the few outlets. The reality is that, as painful as it may be, Nigerians would rather buy petrol at N200 for their businesses and personal needs rather not be able to see it to buy at all – atleast, pending when supply is normalized. |
Our crackdown on corruption will continue to be vigorously undertaken. I urge the courts to support our efforts and help in the recovery of stolen funds by speedily concluding trials and showing that impunity no longer has a place in our country.This is the part that gives me a good erect!on. The President’s resolve on this matter is unshakable, which must be giving wailers migraine and nightmares. |
He said that President Muhammadu Buhari had announced job opportunities for 500,000 graduate-youths to be engaged as teachers.It would be nice to know how much this will add to the FG's current wage bill. I am indifferent about this programme. I hope it turns out right. |
The TSA is to Public Sector accounting what BVN is to Private Sector accounting. --- No more shadow banking. Everyone's financial transactions will be on the radar of authorities with a click of a button. |
Rhemmymatician:Did Dasuki respect the law when he was plundering the National Treasury? |
If only you begged him earlier to release our National Treasury. No more impunity ma'am, your hubby will face the full weight of the law. |
BALLOSKI:I welcome you to try, but I can assure you that you won't find any. I have searched for it extensively myself but to no avail. I have placed several bets here on NL for anyone to provide me a credible source, and for nearly a year now, no one can come up with anything credible. |
HiddenShadow:@ the bolded. While waiting for Buhari's response, can you please tell the world how the votes of the Igbos were skewed in the last presidential elections. |
Oh really?! Since the blackmail and vilification is not working, the new strategy is to pledge loyalty and support. --- Bunch of criminals! Did you just realize now that the country was held hostage by your corrupt party? If your party had won, would it still not have been business as usual? |
“Nigerians should support the President’s efforts to tame the social monster, corruption as it stalls the even socio-economic development of the nation.The hypocrisy of Nigerian politicians is legendary. |
Considering the dimension of attacks deployed by BH in concealing bombs under hijab, it is surprising that it has not been banned already. --- France banned the damn thing and heavens did not fall. It didn't make the Muslims there any less religious. I even hear it is banned in Chad. --- This should be a no-brainer decision for political and religious leaders of the north. They should be pragmatic. Desperate circumstances require desperate measures! |
It does appear that we are coming from an era of a lily-livered president to the other extreme end of the spectrum - a hard-line president. --- The way Dasuki and Co plundered the treasury without any regards to due process, I do not think they deserve the benefit of due process in their trials. |
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