Casualobserver's Posts
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Penguin2:I don’t know where to start or whether I should even bother. Talking about irev is a sign of someone without grey matter or at the very least someone who doesn’t understand the election process. If I hadn’t seen the irev in your response. I might have been tempted but I have no tolerance for educated person who talks about irev. Such a person is either ignorant of the process, lacking in grey matter or not worthy of engaging because he believes what he believes irrespective of evidence. I have encountered enough of such and probably you in the past to leave them to their destiny. Just as Saturday was an epiphany moment for many Obidients, in time you will see the results of what everyone can see but you. For the benefit of others who are reading, IREV plays no part is the vote counting process. Irev is not used to count votes, that is why you will only ever see individual polling unit results in irev. Irev does not collate the results. So If you like alter the results on irev, that’s your business, Inec does not use it to collate results. It is a viewing portal for the public and what it shows or is supposed to show is a copy of the original result sheet which every party agents and the police have a copy of. This is how elections work: 1. Votes are counted at the PU in presence of voters, the party agents and the police 2: the results are imputed into the ORIGINAL EC8 result sheet 3: party agents sign the ORIGINAL result sheet and are given copies as well as a copy for the police. Please it is important note at this point every body has a copy of the ORIGINAL result sheet! 4: results are posted at the PU so voters can see and snap. If not they are at least aware of the announced results. 5: the ORIGINAL results sheet (EC8) is scanned and sent to irev for the public to view. At this point The election and INEc has no more business with irev. 6: INEC takes the ORIGINAL result sheet to the collation center where party agents from various polling units come with their own copies to verify the results being collated and announced tallies with what they have on their copy…i.e that there has been no tampering of results.. It is the ORIGINAL physical result sheet that is used to collate votes not irev. As they are announcing, party agents are comparing to what they have. Sometimes you can see this on televised state and national results when the rec make genuine errors in additions. If you try to enter say 100 votes for a candidate when my copy as a party agent says 60 votes, I will object. 7: if there is a dispute, party agents will tender their copies of ORIGINAL results sheet issued to them at the PU to compare. If at the collation center a corrupt a INEc official tries to record say 100 votes for a candidate when my copy of the result sheet as a party agent says 60 votes, I will object and present my copy of what I was given at the PU as evidence. . If we can’t resolve it we ask the police for his copy. If it is clear it has been tampered it is cancelled. This is why sometimes you hear at collation centers “any cancellations?” These cancellations may be referenced later if the results of the election are affected by the cancelled votes. If it has been tampered in any way, it will be discovered. If further verification is required, the copy with the police will be referenced. If they don’t tally or their is ambiguity the entire results may be cancelled. The only time irev is referenced is if after comparing the results of the party agent and the police their is still discrepancy, then INEc will request a copy of the result on IREV. I have never known a single incident where INEC has had to reference the result on IREV. For INEc to do so, it means the police have lost their copy. The collation goes from ward to state to national. The source or genesis of the votes being collated At ANY POINT is the PHYSICAL ORIGINAL result sheet not irev. Which like I said all party agents, police have copies. So if any result is altered there is evidence. Were results altered ofcourse in some PUs, but if they made a difference there would be a paper trail. I have said it many times, it is unfortunate that sore losers have damaged the reputation and Image of one of the best electoral systems in the world. I have said it many times, you cannot rig in our current system and not leave evidence. The biggest point of electoral fraud right now is vote buying not the actual voting. There is a reason Obi and Atiku went to court to Disqualify Tinubu instead of showing where they won! Because they did not win! If they did there would be evidence no matter what anyone does on IREV. Anybody can make claims. For instance Obi claims he got 1m votes in Lagos, that means he was cheated out of 500,000 votes. Considering that the maximum number of voters per polling unit in Nigeria is 1000 and assuming that 50% of voters turned out (in reality it was around 20%). What Obi is Saying is that in 1000 polling units in Lagos (assuming 50% turnout and all the voters in that PU voted for him) How is it possible in Lagos for you to have 1000 polling units where you were rigged and you don’t have evidence? We are talk8mg about Lagos o not Katsina or Jigawa! So if some people want to put their gray matter on hold they are free to. As they say If you refuse to engage your thinking cap someone else will make us of it for you, whether an Nnamdi Kanu or a Peter Obi. |
Oh I forgot to add this very important point on why it matters. 8: humiliating performances discourages supporter turnout in future elections. In 2019, I voted for Sowore because I wasn’t inspired by Buhari or Atiku. So even though I knew he wouldn’t win, I thought let me encourage him. Hopefully people like him can grow. If I am faced with the same choices tomorrow, I will stay in my house rather than waste my day in the sun. In a, not Leaving my house to vote tpfor anybody unless I believe you have a chance. I would have voted for Durotoye or Moghalu or whoever emerged from their planned alliance at that time but I was so annoyed with them that they let their egos foil their attempts at giving us an alternative that I switched to Sowore. Which leads me to another point 9) when small/new parties fail especially woefully, it reinforces the view in voters that you can only win with one of the 2 main parties and any vote for any other party is a wasted vote. |
helinues: Putindbutt:It is not today, it’s in his DNA In 2013 it was bribing INEC officials. Note 60m in 2013 is like 600m today.
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Actually it just occurred to me that these DNA stats may be inflated to encourage people to take DNA tests. After all these DNA test centers are a business. |
Please if you want to vist Brazilian carnival or anything like that go now o because our developers will soon do their developing in Brazil now that they have a direct route and soon, the rest of us will start having problems. |
fnep2smooth:I would unpack every point you made but It’s too early in the morning on a Monday to unpack the nonsense you just wrote. It a whole lot of nonsense and a lack of understanding of Nigeria politics. The best way I can respond to your delusional and emotionally laced appraisal which is summed up in your comment that “power is acquired through principled resistance” is this: You’ve watched too many western movies, this is not a western democracy or Latin American freedom fighters.. this is Nigerian politics. Power is acquired through trust, handshakes and alliances across tribes. No more no less…always has, always will be!! If it were about principled resistance, there is no ore more principled resistance than Omowole Sowore, who has been resisting on principle since his teenage days. No principled resistance has upstaged an incumbent in the politics of Nigeria, don’t get carried away with propaganda and jargon. You will hear some people say they fought for democracy, while true, they were either in jail, killed or in exile. Their fight was heading nowhere, we were around then o! They were all noise makers o, the west did not pay them any attention besides giving them asylum. Nothing would have happened. They didn’t win the fight o! It’s only because Abacha died and Abdulsalam a politically unambitious general who himself was about to be retired by Abacha became HOS. Otherwise your “principled resistance” would have died in Jail like Yaradua or Abiola or remained in Exile! It wasn’t their fight that brought about democracy or change, it was a stroke of luck and the intervention of God that Abacha died. Of Abacha had not died he would be on his 6th or 7th term as president and nothing would happen! With the exception of the military, Principled resistance never leads to power in Nigeria o, dont let anybody fool you! And even if you are going to be principled in your resistance you must be principled and resistant. By joining the same structure of criminality in alliance to the extent of pleading with them, Obi is neither principled nor is it resistance, joining this coalition is caving in not resisting, certainly not principled resistance! All the other stuff you wrote is nonsense! |
sirfemoz:Nobody has said Obi will not win in Anambra. Nobody cares if he does. If that is all you can see you are missing the message of this election result. |
Penguin2:Obi rigged, he would have won overwhelmingly but he rigged, we saw the videos. Everybody rigs. Rigging is part of the Nigerian DNA. Obi rigged when he was governor so why suddenly would he not rig in 2023 in an election where he can declare what he wants unopposed? . It is precisely in zones where you have overwhelming support that the most rigging occurs because you have the terrain to yourself and nobody will contest the result. You lost an election so your opponent had no need to examine your votes does not mean you did not rig. You accused your opponent of rigging does not mean you did not rig yourself. That I said he rigged does not mean I was saying he still would not have won with a landslide. We have seen elections lost because a contestant overinflated the votes in his stronghold and they were cancelled, yet he would have won without the rigging. . We have seen elections where a contestant inflated the results in his stronghold even though he would have won without rigging, an example being Uzodinma in 2023. Every politician (or his foot soldiers) rigs in his stronghold if he can. As for the rest keep arguing. At this stage I am tired of years of telling you guys how things will unfold and you guys always pushing back only for them to unfold exactly as I said. The day Obi left PDP, I said he just handed the presidency to Tinubu, I got so much pushback here on Nairaland maybe even you might have been one of them. Now suddenly they now realize a divided house cannot win an election and they are running around trying to form a coalition. It really amazes me how Nigerians can’t see what is staring them right in the face! You can’t play the religious card in Benue and Plateau! The Benue conflicts turns out to be inter tribal conflicts. |
Umahi and Somulo are the only Ibos currently acceptable to the rest of Nigeria and currently Umahi is ahead of Soludo. The way our system is designed. A sub region presents a candidate and the rest of Nigeria determines whether he becomes president. You may not like what he is saying but he is speaking the truth. If Ibos were politically savvy they would take advantage of the goodwill Umahi is enjoying as a result of his excellent performance as works minister! The best works minister in my lifetime. I said it in a previous post, Tinubu gave him the role for a reason. 1) competence and 2) to boost his national profile. Remember Tinubu asked him to step down in the contest for SP and become Dg for Akpabio. Ibos should not blow this opportunity. If you miss out on 2039, the next slot is 2055! Don’t come here shouting it’s our turn or Biafra if you don’t play your politics right! |
Penguin2:Look. Ordinarily these elections don’t mean anything. These elections were significant for the following reasons: 1: it shows governors matter 2: it shows that despite hardship, the electorate are not as against Tinubu as online media will have you believe. 3: it shows the ADC members are not as influential as they claim…..even Obi! 4: it shows Obi will not perform as well in the Christian North. The religious card of 2023 is gone! That will affect his votes in SW and middle belt! 5: it shows Obi rigged a lot of SE votes. 6: it was the 1st test of the coalition and they were humiliated…..even though it was a bye election, it matters! 7: it shows Obi won’t pull as many gotes even in his SE! 8: low performance discourages supporter turnout in future elections. It is instructive to note that at the victory rally Soludo raised the hand of the senator elect and told the crowd that while Anambra is APGA but we are sending him to Abuja not to do opposition but to do alliance with the progressives in aAbuja to o which the crowd applauded! I believe SE governors were afraid to be seen to work against their own in 2023. But the defections in the SS has woken them up. Obi will do well in the SE in presidential elections but what that statement says to me is that SE governors are going to work hard to deliver votes for Tinubu in 2027 and make it harder for Obi to rig. Again like I said this is governors are important. Recent statements by Orji Kalu and Umahi reinforce the realization by SE politicians, that they need to work hard to deliver votes for Tinubu otherwise they won’t stand a chance against the SS when next presidency returns to the south. Like I always say, the entire SW votes are up for grabs from 2031-2055, possibly up to 2071, as we are not due to be on the ballot! The NW will also not be on the ballot in 2031. Those who understand politics understand these are the 2 largest voting blocks and what it means come 2031. |
WhizdomXX:Atiku does not have the votes you think he does. His votes are largely based on whatever party he belongs to and his ability to buy the primaries. That has always been his political strategy. SDP was a long time ago but even then he was piggy backing of yaradua. If you think he has votes or want to know his true voter pull look at the election results for 2007. When he contested without mainstream party votes. ACN gave him their platform but supported Jonathan! I wish people will actually study past election results before they talk they are all available on Wikipedia. Studying the results (rigged as they were) where who won etc will reveal a lot. To start with Atiku has never done well in the NW! With Buhari gone this may change. Atiku’s high election turnouts have actually been on the strength of the SS and SE…..again PDP votes! Based on my analysis of Atiku’s past election stats, Honestly I don’t think Atiku on his own glean get more than 2-3m votes. The rest will come based on the strength of his partners or party! Like I said in a previous post Obi has more organic votes than Atiku. Atiku’s election strategy is based on buying the primaries or ticket of a party and letting the structure and machinery of a party do the work for him….I.e hijacking loyal party votes . |
WhizdomXX:None of them had any chance. You think Rochas really wanted to be president? He was trying to raise his profile. I had never heard of Rochas before then. Atiku did not have any votes backing him all he had was money, so he posed no threat if he lost the ticket. Kwakwanso was trapped, so he couldn’t rebel. Governors make presidents. None of the other governors were seriously nterested. In the presidency. Kwakwanso had no choice he had only 1 state. But feel free to argue! |
Tareq1105:Exactly! I wrote something on this 6 months ago, long before the coalition….let Me dig it up! It’s long but as I predicted. casualobserver: |
DeepSight:The problem is Atiku can’t win! This election I hope has taught you what we have always said. You can’t win a presidential election without governors. All the coalition big wigs have no followership on the ground. None of them won a seat in their state. Including Atiku. I have said it and I repeat. No northern governor (….the people who actually control state votes and resources for elections) none will support Atiku because they also want to be president in 2031. Atiku’s votes are PDP votes and this election has shown that PDP is not dead! |
Softmirror:Have some sympathy towards him. He told his partners in collision wait let me show you my strength in the forthcoming elections before I Join! Instead the senatorial. Candidate he physically campaigned for for less than (two) 2%. His assembly candidate did not get 25%……total humiliation in his own backyard! His biggest worry right now is how to negotiate with the coalition after his hand has been weakened by his disastrous outing in Anambra and southern Kaduna. We u derstand APGA but how does APC alienate a man you campaigned for in your home state? Not even home state but your home city where you live? Right now his coalition members are going to tell him he doesn’t have the 6m votes he had in 2023 and should take what they give him. All over the internet it is dawning on Obidients that they have been led astray!
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Cromagnon:Oga I don’t have time to argue with you. This is a topic of last week that I have parked. if you like think a company whose business model is to sell your data will not cheat. What you see you see! TikTok Meta Uber Google have all been found guilty of breaching user data even after the users opted out of data collection or turned off certain features. Please don’t respond to me directly or I will block yOu. Not interested in anything you have to say. The irony is even the ad blockers and VPN too harvest your data illegally.
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Cromagnon:That’s actually wrong. I know what I wrote. Many companies have been fined for harvesting data without user consent. I:e even when you opt out! |
Dazzay:You probably don’t know Tinubu is building a road from Taraba to the border with Cameroon? All those Europeans that travel through Africa have to pass the road to the Cameron’s border to avoid the civil unrest in cameroun and that road is notorious INTERNATIONALLY as the worst road in Africa. If you watched that video of the Dutch lady to ride through Nigeria you would know how bad the Taraba road is. So Sit there online and think you know better than the people in the villages who are finally getting a good road that will open trade with their Cameroonian neighbors. If you want to have an idea how bad their roads are there watch below: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-GdiQIpFa4?si=LjyY8w7W9_Ha_AiG https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-d3T0srKSI?si=f-ZsVPW4wW6fSQeX https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18RDlAkC1Uo?si=vXu5W9NVmiWGIsoA
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Omoboricash:He is actually romancing Oyinlola in ADC, a man he claimed was trying to kill him. Please let’s die this Aregbesola matter. Giving oxygen to nonentities is what has propelled Obi into national prominence. |
chubinwa:It seems it has finally dawned on you that Peter Obi can never become president. Now you are playing with the idea of VP. That too is an illusion! One day it will also dawn on you that Atiku cannot win and Peter Obi can never be president or Vice President. The one lesson I hope this election has taught people is that you don’t win elections without governors and no northern governor is supporting Atiku. Why? I have said it many times….they themselves want to be president in 2031! I have written expansively about this. Every northerner with clout is looking at 2031 as his chance to be president. If Atiku becomes president he kills their chance. Atiku cannot hand over to another Northerner. So it is in their interest to bury Atiku once and for all. All the Northerners in ADC has no followers. Please this is not propaganda or banter, examine them one by one. Even Atiku himself, a lot of his votes are not his personal votes but PDP votes and PDP has just shown that they are still a force. They are still the main opposition party. Rumors of their demise was greatly exaggerated! I have been saying it for 3 years you are backing the wrong ibo man. When it comes to an ibo president the opinion of the ibos doesn’t matter. It is the rest of the country that will determine which ibo man becomes president. Peter Obi is not acceptable to the rest of Nigeria. Therefore he can never smell Aso Rock! Peter Obi is not acceptable to the people whose votes the ibos need to become president. I have been saying it for the past 2 years….Your support for OBI will set the ibos back decades! You should never have put all your eggs in one basket. I hope this realization will also cause you to reflect on what I wrote above. The quicker you start to rally behind the likes of Umahi and Soludo the better for you. Right now as it stand the SS has stolen a March on you! The next southern presidency is 2039 and it is more or less locked in the SS, After that the next slot in 2055. Think about it and ponder the damage Putting all your support behind Obi has done for the ibo presidency cause. Think about it. In 2055 all the current lot will be too old. You guys really messed up! |
Tunaji:It was meant as a joke |
Tunaji:That you mean it is very unfortunate! Enjoy your weekend!
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Tunaji:Happy birthday to the IBB that died or the one that appeared after he died? Honestly we need to review the point of wasting so much money on education or the type of education we provide in this country. We should just have sent our citizens to africa Magic theater schools instead! BTW I hope you are not a clone? |
IgOga:The ADC vanguard was the X account spreading fake news about ADC victory in Anambra. In the end it wasn’t even close 7,700 to 1900 |
Betanaija42moro:Who is this campaigning with the ADC candidate?
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Appletek:I wonder how he will negotiate for ticket in the collision |
Akinboboz:One day you will learn that fake news, propaganda and gaslight is their only way. If they tell you their name insist on seeing their birth certificate and confirm from their primary school teacher. |
madridguy:It’s not his first time. There was A 60m bribe to an INEC officer traced to him when he was governor. He and his mob will come forming saint as if we don’t know him! Note the date and especially note the last tweet on the page. He is amongst the same people who criticized Obi’s poor performance and corrupt tenure as governor now trying to paint him as a messiah and the only savior. The Ibos know what they are doing. All they want is an Ibos president and they will sink the country to achieve it. If you like let them gaslight you. Don’t be misled like Victor Banjo!
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Coalition lule!
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free2ryhme:They and their supporters will be disgraced! When we tell them you don’t win elections without governors, they said governors will stay in their parties and work for Collission. When we tell them polling units are not on Nairaland or twitter, they abuse us. When we tell them all the people in the coalition are yesterdays retired men with name but no followers they abuse us. Oya now…Shebi it is because of bye elections people like Obi refused to defect? The mic has been tested. Coalition has encountered collision! |
Ganjafama:It’s not a 4 horse race. If Jonathan is not joining unless Atiku and Obi join then Jonathan is not in the race. |
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. I knew the moment he was giving out 10million, 15 million to people everywhere, he wetting the ground and doing dress rehearsal against the coming elections.