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Casualobserver's Posts

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Politics › Re: Should We Judge What 2027 Will Be By Results Of The Bye Elections? by casualobserver:
Penguin2:
In 2023, Peter Obi won the election but INEC shutdown the IREV and conjured numbers for Tinubu.

You can choose to lie to yourself and believe that Tinubu won Rivers.

If today, it’s taken as official that Tinubu won Rivers, then imagine other atrocities that happened in that election that is now official. Or those things don’t count?

And saying that Benue is inter-tribal war, what has Tinubu done to stop the war?

And how did you arrive at the war being inter-tribal when the governor of the state has told the world on national television that foreigners have invaded his state and trying to displace his people?

Or do you now know more than the governor that receives intelligence everyday?
I don’t know where to start or whether I should even bother. Talking about irev is a sign of someone without grey matter or at the very least someone who doesn’t understand the election process. If I hadn’t seen the irev in your response. I might have been tempted but I have no tolerance for educated person who talks about irev. Such a person is either ignorant of the process, lacking in grey matter or not worthy of engaging because he believes what he believes irrespective of evidence. I have encountered enough of such and probably you in the past to leave them to their destiny. Just as Saturday was an epiphany moment for many Obidients, in time you will see the results of what everyone can see but you.

For the benefit of others who are reading, IREV plays no part is the vote counting process. Irev is not used to count votes, that is why you will only ever see individual polling unit results in irev. Irev does not collate the results. So If you like alter the results on irev, that’s your business, Inec does not use it to collate results. It is a viewing portal for the public and what it shows or is supposed to show is a copy of the original result sheet which every party agents and the police have a copy of.

This is how elections work:
1. Votes are counted at the PU in presence of voters, the party agents and the police
2: the results are imputed into the ORIGINAL EC8 result sheet
3: party agents sign the ORIGINAL result sheet and are given copies as well as a copy for the police. Please it is important note at this point every body has a copy of the ORIGINAL result sheet!
4: results are posted at the PU so voters can see and snap. If not they are at least aware of the announced results.
5: the ORIGINAL results sheet (EC8) is scanned and sent to irev for the public to view. At this point The election and INEc has no more business with irev.
6: INEC takes the ORIGINAL result sheet to the collation center where party agents from various polling units come with their own copies to verify the results being collated and announced tallies with what they have on their copy…i.e that there has been no tampering of results.. It is the ORIGINAL physical result sheet that is used to collate votes not irev. As they are announcing, party agents are comparing to what they have. Sometimes you can see this on televised state and national results when the rec make genuine errors in additions. If you try to enter say 100 votes for a candidate when my copy as a party agent says 60 votes, I will object.
7: if there is a dispute, party agents will tender their copies of ORIGINAL results sheet issued to them at the PU to compare. If at the collation center a corrupt a INEc official tries to record say 100 votes for a candidate when my copy of the result sheet as a party agent says 60 votes, I will object and present my copy of what I was given at the PU as evidence. . If we can’t resolve it we ask the police for his copy. If it is clear it has been tampered it is cancelled. This is why sometimes you hear at collation centers “any cancellations?” These cancellations may be referenced later if the results of the election are affected by the cancelled votes. If it has been tampered in any way, it will be discovered. If further verification is required, the copy with the police will be referenced. If they don’t tally or their is ambiguity the entire results may be cancelled. The only time irev is referenced is if after comparing the results of the party agent and the police their is still discrepancy, then INEc will request a copy of the result on IREV. I have never known a single incident where INEC has had to reference the result on IREV. For INEc to do so, it means the police have lost their copy.
The collation goes from ward to state to national. The source or genesis of the votes being collated At ANY POINT is the PHYSICAL ORIGINAL result sheet not irev. Which like I said all party agents, police have copies. So if any result is altered there is evidence.

Were results altered ofcourse in some PUs, but if they made a difference there would be a paper trail. I have said it many times, it is unfortunate that sore losers have damaged the reputation and Image of one of the best electoral systems in the world.


I have said it many times, you cannot rig in our current system and not leave evidence. The biggest point of electoral fraud right now is vote buying not the actual voting. There is a reason Obi and Atiku went to court to Disqualify Tinubu instead of showing where they won! Because they did not win! If they did there would be evidence no matter what anyone does on IREV.

Anybody can make claims. For instance Obi claims he got 1m votes in Lagos, that means he was cheated out of 500,000 votes. Considering that the maximum number of voters per polling unit in Nigeria is 1000 and assuming that 50% of voters turned out (in reality it was around 20%). What Obi is Saying is that in 1000 polling units in Lagos (assuming 50% turnout and all the voters in that PU voted for him)


How is it possible in Lagos for you to have 1000 polling units where you were rigged and you don’t have evidence? We are talk8mg about Lagos o not Katsina or Jigawa!

So if some people want to put their gray matter on hold they are free to. As they say If you refuse to engage your thinking cap someone else will make us of it for you, whether an Nnamdi Kanu or a Peter Obi.
Politics › Re: Should We Judge What 2027 Will Be By Results Of The Bye Elections? by casualobserver:
Oh I forgot to add this very important point on why it matters.


8: humiliating performances discourages supporter turnout in future elections.

In 2019, I voted for Sowore because I wasn’t inspired by Buhari or Atiku. So even though I knew he wouldn’t win, I thought let me encourage him. Hopefully people like him can grow. If I am faced with the same choices tomorrow, I will stay in my house rather than waste my day in the sun. In a, not Leaving my house to vote tpfor anybody unless I believe you have a chance.

I would have voted for Durotoye or Moghalu or whoever emerged from their planned alliance at that time but I was so annoyed with them that they let their egos foil their attempts at giving us an alternative that I switched to Sowore.

Which leads me to another point

9) when small/new parties fail especially woefully, it reinforces the view in voters that you can only win with one of the 2 main parties and any vote for any other party is a wasted vote.
Politics › Re: Vote Buying: APGA, ADC Offer Cash For Votes In Anambra By-election by casualobserver: 10:34am On Aug 18, 2025
helinues:
ADC claimed they are different but they are looking horrible than both Apc and Pdp
Putindbutt:
Holy sh!t!... "we no dey give shishi" in the mud grin. I knew the moment he was giving out 10million, 15 million to people everywhere, he wetting the ground and doing dress rehearsal against the coming elections.
It is not today, it’s in his DNA

In 2013 it was bribing INEC officials.

Note 60m in 2013 is like 600m today.

Family › Re: 25% Of Paternity Tests In Nigeria Reveal Non-Biological Fathers – Smart DNA by casualobserver: 10:29am On Aug 18, 2025
Actually it just occurred to me that these DNA stats may be inflated to encourage people to take DNA tests. After all these DNA test centers are a business.
Politics › Re: Tinubu’s State Visit: Nigeria, Brazil To Sign MOU On Direct Flight by casualobserver: 10:25am On Aug 18, 2025
Please if you want to vist Brazilian carnival or anything like that go now o because our developers will soon do their developing in Brazil now that they have a direct route and soon, the rest of us will start having problems.
Politics › Re: South-East Presidency: I Should Be The Front Runner, Not Peter Obi - Dave Umahi by casualobserver: 10:07am On Aug 18, 2025
fnep2smooth:
As a devoted supporter of Peter Obi and the ideals he represents for Nigeria's future, I have a strong reaction to Dave Umahi's recent statements about Southeast governors supporting President Tinubu's re-election. Let me break this down with clarity and evidence:

1. The Myth of "Unanimous Support" in Southeast
Umahi claims "all five governors" back Tinubu, but this ignores critical realities:
• Partisan Divide: Three Southeast governors aren't from the APC (Enugu-PDP, Anambra-APGA, Abia-LP). Their parties haven't endorsed Tinubu, making Umahi's declaration presumptuous .
• Grassroots Disconnect: Obi won the Southeast decisively in 2023. Governors' political maneuvering doesn't reflect the people's will—evident in Obi's continued mass rallies despite government restrictions .
• Intimidation Tactics: APC governors like those in Edo and Benue have banned Obi from visiting, fearing his influence. This contradicts Umahi's "100% support" narrative .

2. Tinubu's "Favor" to Southeast: Reality vs. Rhetoric
Umahi boasts of Tinubu's infrastructure projects, but scrutiny exposes imbalances:
• Neglected Priorities: Critical Southeast projects like the Enugu-Onitsha Expressway and Port Harcourt-Enugu rail are *decades* overdue. Completing them isn't generosity—it's basic governance .
• Regional Disparity: The ₦15 trillion Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway (toll-ready by December 2025) benefits Southwest/South-South disproportionately. Meanwhile, Southeast remains underserved .
• Appointment Tokenism: Tinubu naming Umahi Works Minister (first SE appointee) is a tactical move, not transformative inclusion. The Southeast still lacks key national security/economic roles .

3. Obi's Unmatched Cross-Regional Appeal
Umahi urges Igbos to "support other regions" for future presidency, ignoring Obi's proven viability:
• 2023 Proof: Obi outperformed Tinubu in *12 states*, including Northern strongholds like Nasarawa and Southern hubs like Edo. His appeal transcends ethnicity .
• Threat to Tinubu: APC fears Obi because he splits Tinubu's Southern base. In 2027, Obi could dominate the Southeast/South-South and erode Tinubu's Northern votes—forcing reliance on rigging .
• Ethical Contrast: While Umahi brags "God used me," Obi's pledge for a *single term* prioritizes national healing over power retention—a stance even activists endorse .

4. The Fatal Flaw in Umahi's "Re-engagement" Theory
His call to "support other regions" for Igbo presidency is dangerously naive:
• History Lessons: Jonathan (South) was denied a second term despite zoning norms. Power isn't "given"; it's earned through principled resistance .
• Obi's Strategy: Building a multi-ethnic movement—like his Sokoto/Lagos campaign teams—is how Igbos gain presidency. Not through subservience to failing incumbents .
• Tinubu's Vulnerability: With Northern discontent rising (Kwankwaso attacking him) and economic turmoil, 2027 is winnable for Obi. Surrendering now betrays generations .

Conclusion: Obi’s Path vs. Umahi’s Subservience
Umahi’s speech reveals a troubling shift: from governor to Tinubu’s apologist. His "performance" boasts (e.g., Ebonyi roads) pale against Obi’s Anambra legacy—cleared pensions, education reform, and fiscal prudence without fanfare. True Igbo leadership isn’t begging for scraps at Tinubu’s table; it’s uniting Nigerians under a vision of justice and competence. Obi embodies this. When Umahi claims "we can’t get presidency by sentiments," he mistakes principle for naiveté. Obi’s 6.1 million votes prove otherwise—and in 2027, we’ll prove it again.

"Leadership isn’t about self—it’s about the people." – Dave Umahi .
We agree. That’s why Peter Obi fights.
I would unpack every point you made but It’s too early in the morning on a Monday to unpack the nonsense you just wrote. It a whole lot of nonsense and a lack of understanding of Nigeria politics.


The best way I can respond to your delusional and emotionally laced appraisal which is summed up in your comment that “power is acquired through principled resistance” is this: You’ve watched too many western movies, this is not a western democracy or Latin American freedom fighters.. this is Nigerian politics. Power is acquired through trust, handshakes and alliances across tribes. No more no less…always has, always will be!!

If it were about principled resistance, there is no ore more principled resistance than Omowole Sowore, who has been resisting on principle since his teenage days. No principled resistance has upstaged an incumbent in the politics of Nigeria, don’t get carried away with propaganda and jargon.

You will hear some people say they fought for democracy, while true, they were either in jail, killed or in exile. Their fight was heading nowhere, we were around then o! They were all noise makers o, the west did not pay them any attention besides giving them asylum. Nothing would have happened. They didn’t win the fight o! It’s only because Abacha died and Abdulsalam a politically unambitious general who himself was about to be retired by Abacha became HOS. Otherwise your “principled resistance” would have died in Jail like Yaradua or Abiola or remained in Exile! It wasn’t their fight that brought about democracy or change, it was a stroke of luck and the intervention of God that Abacha died. Of Abacha had not died he would be on his 6th or 7th term as president and nothing would happen!

With the exception of the military, Principled resistance never leads to power in Nigeria o, dont let anybody fool you!
And even if you are going to be principled in your resistance you must be principled and resistant. By joining the same structure of criminality in alliance to the extent of pleading with them, Obi is neither principled nor is it resistance, joining this coalition is caving in not resisting, certainly not principled resistance!

All the other stuff you wrote is nonsense!
Politics › Re: Labour Party Is Dead, ADC Does Not Exist In Anambra - Charles Soludo (Video) by casualobserver: 9:42am On Aug 18, 2025
sirfemoz:
What is this man saying? Anambra voting pattern has always been APGA at state level, but when it comes to National politics, they vote whoever they like. Even when Ojukwu the leader of APGA contested for presidency, he lost in Anambra. Wait till 2027, and see who Anambra people will vote for.
Nobody has said Obi will not win in Anambra. Nobody cares if he does. If that is all you can see you are missing the message of this election result.
Politics › Re: Should We Judge What 2027 Will Be By Results Of The Bye Elections? by casualobserver: 9:31am On Aug 18, 2025
Penguin2:
The only thing you said here that I agree with is that governors matter. Anyone who denies that governors matter is lying to himself. But their influence is not beyond their SSAs and the numbers their SSAs can influence and maybe the security architecture under their command.

But saying Obi rigged Southeast is just big fat lie. I’ll tell you again that the numbers Tinubu got in Imo and Ebonyi was manufactured by Umahi and Uzodimma.

Will Obi get the votes of Christian north? Only time will tell.

But if we diagnose the Christian north, the only part of Christian north that has experienced something different under Tinubu regime is Southern Kaduna with the restoration of security and the establishment of FMC and a Federal University.

But apart from Southern Kaduna, would you say the same of Plateau and Benue where killings have but doubled? Or Benue and Plateau have no brains? They will still queue up and vote Tinubu abi?
Obi rigged, he would have won overwhelmingly but he rigged, we saw the videos. Everybody rigs. Rigging is part of the Nigerian DNA. Obi rigged when he was governor so why suddenly would he not rig in 2023 in an election where he can declare what he wants unopposed? . It is precisely in zones where you have overwhelming support that the most rigging occurs because you have the terrain to yourself and nobody will contest the result.

You lost an election so your opponent had no need to examine your votes does not mean you did not rig. You accused your opponent of rigging does not mean you did not rig yourself. That I said he rigged does not mean I was saying he still would not have won with a landslide. We have seen elections lost because a contestant overinflated the votes in his stronghold and they were cancelled, yet he would have won without the rigging. . We have seen elections where a contestant inflated the results in his stronghold even though he would have won without rigging, an example being Uzodinma in 2023. Every politician (or his foot soldiers) rigs in his stronghold if he can.


As for the rest keep arguing. At this stage I am tired of years of telling you guys how things will unfold and you guys always pushing back only for them to unfold exactly as I said. The day Obi left PDP, I said he just handed the presidency to Tinubu, I got so much pushback here on Nairaland maybe even you might have been one of them. Now suddenly they now realize a divided house cannot win an election and they are running around trying to form a coalition. It really amazes me how Nigerians can’t see what is staring them right in the face!


You can’t play the religious card in Benue and Plateau! The Benue conflicts turns out to be inter tribal conflicts.
Politics › Re: South-East Presidency: I Should Be The Front Runner, Not Peter Obi - Dave Umahi by casualobserver:
Umahi and Somulo are the only Ibos currently acceptable to the rest of Nigeria and currently Umahi is ahead of Soludo.

The way our system is designed. A sub region presents a candidate and the rest of Nigeria determines whether he becomes president.


You may not like what he is saying but he is speaking the truth.

If Ibos were politically savvy they would take advantage of the goodwill Umahi is enjoying as a result of his excellent performance as works minister! The best works minister in my lifetime. I said it in a previous post, Tinubu gave him the role for a reason. 1) competence and 2) to boost his national profile. Remember Tinubu asked him to step down in the contest for SP and become Dg for Akpabio.

Ibos should not blow this opportunity. If you miss out on 2039, the next slot is 2055!

Don’t come here shouting it’s our turn or Biafra if you don’t play your politics right!
Politics › Re: Should We Judge What 2027 Will Be By Results Of The Bye Elections? by casualobserver:
Penguin2:
Don’t rejoice too early.

Even Tinubu knows that he cannot be confident of anything based on yesterday’s election.

The off cycle election is not usually organic. Only mobilized voters go to polling stations which makes the best mobilizer win.
Look. Ordinarily these elections don’t mean anything. These elections were significant for the following reasons:

1: it shows governors matter
2: it shows that despite hardship, the electorate are not as against Tinubu as online media will have you believe.
3: it shows the ADC members are not as influential as they claim…..even Obi!
4: it shows Obi will not perform as well in the Christian North. The religious card of 2023 is gone! That will affect his votes in SW and middle belt!
5: it shows Obi rigged a lot of SE votes.
6: it was the 1st test of the coalition and they were humiliated…..even though it was a bye election, it matters!
7: it shows Obi won’t pull as many gotes even in his SE!
8: low performance discourages supporter turnout in future elections.

It is instructive to note that at the victory rally Soludo raised the hand of the senator elect and told the crowd that while Anambra is APGA but we are sending him to Abuja not to do opposition but to do alliance with the progressives in aAbuja to o which the crowd applauded! I believe SE governors were afraid to be seen to work against their own in 2023. But the defections in the SS has woken them up.

Obi will do well in the SE in presidential elections but what that statement says to me is that SE governors are going to work hard to deliver votes for Tinubu in 2027 and make it harder for Obi to rig. Again like I said this is governors are important. Recent statements by Orji Kalu and Umahi reinforce the realization by SE politicians, that they need to work hard to deliver votes for Tinubu otherwise they won’t stand a chance against the SS when next presidency returns to the south. Like I always say, the entire SW votes are up for grabs from 2031-2055, possibly up to 2071, as we are not due to be on the ballot! The NW will also not be on the ballot in 2031. Those who understand politics understand these are the 2 largest voting blocks and what it means come 2031.
Politics › Re: Tinubu Congratulates Bye-election Winners, Praises INEC For Credible Polls by casualobserver:
WhizdomXX:
I would like to examine the case of Atiku, he has been getting votes right from SDP before Buhari joined the political fray. Will you say he has been buying them since that time?
Atiku does not have the votes you think he does. His votes are largely based on whatever party he belongs to and his ability to buy the primaries. That has always been his political strategy. SDP was a long time ago but even then he was piggy backing of yaradua. If you think he has votes or want to know his true voter pull look at the election results for 2007. When he contested without mainstream party votes. ACN gave him their platform but supported Jonathan!

I wish people will actually study past election results before they talk they are all available on Wikipedia. Studying the results (rigged as they were) where who won etc will reveal a lot. To start with Atiku has never done well in the NW! With Buhari gone this may change. Atiku’s high election turnouts have actually been on the strength of the SS and SE…..again PDP votes!

Based on my analysis of Atiku’s past election stats, Honestly I don’t think Atiku on his own glean get more than 2-3m votes. The rest will come based on the strength of his partners or party! Like I said in a previous post Obi has more organic votes than Atiku.

Atiku’s election strategy is based on buying the primaries or ticket of a party and letting the structure and machinery of a party do the work for him….I.e hijacking loyal party votes .
Politics › Re: Tinubu Congratulates Bye-election Winners, Praises INEC For Credible Polls by casualobserver:
WhizdomXX:
Rochas and Kwankwaso and Atiku were involved in the APC merger and they all wanted to be President. Sadly you didn't mention them except the weakest, to suit your narrative.
None of them had any chance. You think Rochas really wanted to be president? He was trying to raise his profile. I had never heard of Rochas before then.

Atiku did not have any votes backing him all he had was money, so he posed no threat if he lost the ticket. Kwakwanso was trapped, so he couldn’t rebel.
Governors make presidents. None of the other governors were seriously nterested. In the presidency. Kwakwanso had no choice he had only 1 state.



But feel free to argue!
Politics › Re: Tinubu Congratulates Bye-election Winners, Praises INEC For Credible Polls by casualobserver: 9:55pm On Aug 17, 2025
Tareq1105:
That's why they will never ever go along with Atiku bcoz they know that come 2031, it's one of their set that would be the flag bearer of the President.
Exactly! I wrote something on this 6 months ago, long before the coalition….let
Me dig it up! It’s long but as I predicted.

casualobserver:
People need to be a bit more discerning.

ElRufai wanted to be a minister. Therefore he is clearly still politically ambitious. For someone who has been a governor and a minister what else is there to aim for but the presidency or possibly the VP as a stepping a stone. Park that for now.

Northern ambitious politicians especially some governors want to be president. An opening is coming up for the North either in 2027 or 2031. If you as an ambitious northern politician don’t seize that opportunity, that’s your chance of being the president gone. A Northern president in 2027 cannot hand over to another northerner in 2031 or 2035 especially after denying the South its 2 terms.

The idea that ElRufai, Atiku, Kwankwanso, Bala Mohammed or the likes of Sule Lamido or Tambuwal will work for each other to make one the president in 2027 is to me a fallacy! And to me this is where the alliance unravels. Atiku will run, constitutionally he can’t be a VP again meaning any northern heavy weight supporting him is basically kissing goodbye to any presidential ambition.

My prediction: they will fail to form an alliance or will engage in anti-alliance activities and split the votes again. [b] Be under no illusion, there are ambitious Northern opposition heavyweights who want to be president and would rather wait for 2031 by which time 1) Atiku their main threat would be too old to run thus giving them a smoother path and 2) they would be able to count on undiluted southern votes. Nobody is doing this out of the interests of the people. Where you stand is based on how the permutations serve you politically. It is politically suicidal for any ambitious northern heavy weight to back any northern candidate other than himself. For the same reason the likes of Fayemi, Osinbajo, Tunde Bakare etc contested against Tinubu….they knew it is then or never. After Tinubu the SW will not be president for 40 years….a generation!

For an ambitious northern politician, he knows it is better to back a southern candidate in 2027. Furthermore, he also knows backing Tinububserves his interests better because he can’t contest again in 2031. If he backs a fresh southern candidate like Amaechi or Obi, they could break any agreement to serve one term like Jonathan at which point they would also have the power of incumbency. If Atiku wins he can’t handover to another Northerner so It does not serve the interest of ANY northern governor whether PDP or APC to back another Northerner in 2027 other than himself.

I say this not because I support Tinubu. For me the logical, smart move for an ambitious Northern governor or politician is to back, be seen to back and deliver for Tinubu in 2027. A Sule lamido, Tambuwal, Kwakwanso, Bala Mohammed, even Saraki have nothing to gain politically by backing Atiku or aligning with ElRufai if they nurse ambitions to be president themselves. With Atiku out of the picture in 2031, the SW vote and Tinubu’s backing will play a big role if not determine which Northerner becomes president in 2031. [/b]

Politicians make deals all the time, In 2011 despite ACN having a presidential candidate Tinubu made a deal with Jonathan and delivered SW votes. In 2023, Wike and Makinde made a deal with Tinubu. Again I repeat your relevance in politics is predicated on your ability to deliver votes. ElRufai has no votes backing him. The only Northerners I can see as part of any coalition especially are those who are either political lightweights or have no presidential ambition. When the time comes those who have votes and have ambitions will make the right deals for them. Leave ElRufai and his social media content. We know the fate of all social media politicians like Sowore and Fela Durotoye.

So you see, personal ambition will trump any alliance and all that is happening now is just noise.

The difference between this proposed alliance/merger and the Tinubu/Buhari alliance is that the APC merger was a win win for everybody involved in the merger. Tinubu did not want to be president in 2015, so he was happy just to have his party at the center…..win, Buhari became president….win, Amaechi became minister….win, Saraki became senate president….win…..none of the leaders of the blocks that merged were interested in the presidency. The eastern flank represented by Rochas and Ngige were not interested in becoming president. This merger will only produce a win for one and career extinction for the others and that’s why it won’t work. A good deal is a deal where everyone gets what he wants.
Politics › Re: Tinubu Congratulates Bye-election Winners, Praises INEC For Credible Polls by casualobserver: 9:47pm On Aug 17, 2025
DeepSight:
Humbling himself to accept being VP to Atiku is his best option.

If he goes to PDP, Wike will finish him in two seconds.

If he stays with Labour the ghosts of Lamidi Apapa, Abure and co will emerge to ensure he doesnt get the ticket.

At the end, there is a very strong likelihood he may get no presidential ticket from any party.

He had better advise himself very well.
The problem is Atiku can’t win! This election I hope has taught you what we have always said. You can’t win a presidential election without governors. All the coalition big wigs have no followership on the ground. None of them won a seat in their state. Including Atiku. I have said it and I repeat. No northern governor (….the people who actually control state votes and resources for elections) none will support Atiku because they also want to be president in 2031. Atiku’s votes are PDP votes and this election has shown that PDP is not dead!
Politics › Re: Tinubu Congratulates Bye-election Winners, Praises INEC For Credible Polls by casualobserver:
Softmirror:
Surprisingly Peter Obi hasn't made any noise since yesterday. Has anyone noticed?! 😂
Have some sympathy towards him. He told his partners in collision wait let me show you my strength in the forthcoming elections before I Join! Instead the senatorial. Candidate he physically campaigned for for less than (two) 2%. His assembly candidate did not get 25%……total humiliation in his own backyard!


His biggest worry right now is how to negotiate with the coalition after his hand has been weakened by his disastrous outing in Anambra and southern Kaduna.

We u derstand APGA but how does APC alienate a man you campaigned for in your home state? Not even home state but your home city where you live?

Right now his coalition members are going to tell him he doesn’t have the 6m votes he had in 2023 and should take what they give him.

All over the internet it is dawning on Obidients that they have been led astray!

Foreign Affairs › Re: 20 Countries Where Chatgpt Is Banned In 2025 by casualobserver: 8:24pm On Aug 17, 2025
Cromagnon:
What kind of data
Did you not provide the data yourself to them?
What did you think would happen?
They should close their eyes ba
Get real

Unless you go live alone in the forest other's will always have aves to certain information about you.

You may not greet anyone in your hood but they will know when you leave and come home
They will know which car you drive or do not
Of women come to visit they will see them

Same digitally
Oga I don’t have time to argue with you. This is a topic of last week that I have parked. if you like think a company whose business model is to sell your data will not cheat. What you see you see!

TikTok Meta Uber Google have all been found guilty of breaching user data even after the users opted out of data collection or turned off certain features.

Please don’t respond to me directly or I will block yOu. Not interested in anything you have to say.

The irony is even the ad blockers and VPN too harvest your data illegally.

Foreign Affairs › Re: 20 Countries Where Chatgpt Is Banned In 2025 by casualobserver: 8:11pm On Aug 17, 2025
Cromagnon:

You have it the info
You signed contract
So it's not without your knowledge





Read your user contract

had govt ever done anything well?
Of you don't like a software then don't use it or make your own that doesn't track anything
That’s actually wrong. I know what I wrote. Many companies have been fined for harvesting data without user consent. I:e even when you opt out!
Politics › Re: Breaking: APC Wins Taraba State Assembly Bye Election by casualobserver: 4:30pm On Aug 17, 2025
Dazzay:
If they ask you to mention a single achievement of Tinubu since he grabbed and ran away with someone's mandate now you will run away.
You probably don’t know Tinubu is building a road from Taraba to the border with Cameroon? All those Europeans that travel through Africa have to pass the road to the Cameron’s border to avoid the civil unrest in cameroun and that road is notorious INTERNATIONALLY as the worst road in Africa. If you watched that video of the Dutch lady to ride through Nigeria you would know how bad the Taraba road is. So Sit there online and think you know better than the people in the villages who are finally getting a good road that will open trade with their Cameroonian neighbors. If you want to have an idea how bad their roads are there watch below:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-GdiQIpFa4?si=LjyY8w7W9_Ha_AiG


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-d3T0srKSI?si=f-ZsVPW4wW6fSQeX


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18RDlAkC1Uo?si=vXu5W9NVmiWGIsoA

Politics › Re: Omoluabi Group Alleges Plot To Assassinate Ex-minister, Rauf Aregbesola by casualobserver: 3:39pm On Aug 17, 2025
Omoboricash:
The same Aregbeshola alleged and accused Oyinlola of assasianting him.
Till today he could not proof the world how Oyinlola plan to kill him
He is actually romancing Oyinlola in ADC, a man he claimed was trying to kill him.

Please let’s die this Aregbesola matter. Giving oxygen to nonentities is what has propelled Obi into national prominence.
Politics › Re: Advice To PO And My Fellow Obidients by casualobserver:
chubinwa:
The only way Peter obi can enter that aso rock is by becoming a vice president to Atiku. That's the only way. Else, forget it. We will continue to wail while APC terrorists continue to ruin this country with reckless abandon
It seems it has finally dawned on you that Peter Obi can never become president. Now you are playing with the idea of VP. That too is an illusion!

One day it will also dawn on you that Atiku cannot win and Peter Obi can never be president or Vice President. The one lesson I hope this election has taught people is that you don’t win elections without governors and no northern governor is supporting Atiku. Why? I have said it many times….they themselves want to be president in 2031! I have written expansively about this. Every northerner with clout is looking at 2031 as his chance to be president. If Atiku becomes president he kills their chance. Atiku cannot hand over to another Northerner. So it is in their interest to bury Atiku once and for all. All the Northerners in ADC has no followers. Please this is not propaganda or banter, examine them one by one. Even Atiku himself, a lot of his votes are not his personal votes but PDP votes and PDP has just shown that they are still a force. They are still the main opposition party. Rumors of their demise was greatly exaggerated!




I have been saying it for 3 years you are backing the wrong ibo man. When it comes to an ibo president the opinion of the ibos doesn’t matter. It is the rest of the country that will determine which ibo man becomes president. Peter Obi is not acceptable to the rest of Nigeria. Therefore he can never smell Aso Rock! Peter Obi is not acceptable to the people whose votes the ibos need to become president.


I have been saying it for the past 2 years….Your support for OBI will set the ibos back decades! You should never have put all your eggs in one basket.

I hope this realization will also cause you to reflect on what I wrote above. The quicker you start to rally behind the likes of Umahi and Soludo the better for you. Right now as it stand the SS has stolen a March on you!

The next southern presidency is 2039 and it is more or less locked in the SS, After that the next slot in 2055. Think about it and ponder the damage Putting all your support behind Obi has done for the ibo presidency cause.


Think about it. In 2055 all the current lot will be too old. You guys really messed up!
Politics › Re: Jonathan Hails Babangida At 84 by casualobserver: 2:27pm On Aug 17, 2025
Tunaji:
It means the saddest story ever.
It was meant as a joke
Politics › Re: Jonathan Hails Babangida At 84 by casualobserver: 2:15pm On Aug 17, 2025
Tunaji:
I said, "happy birthday, though", meaning happy birthday anyway.
In Yoruba, ko sa gba happy birthday be be; Either it's the real him or not, a certain IBB is still at the Hilltop in Minna.

What am I even saying I did the NYSC somehow in Paiko near Minna, so I know what I am saying, unfortunately I mean it.

Am I a clone? My clone wherever he is, he's a dead man standing.
That you mean it is very unfortunate!

Enjoy your weekend!

Politics › Re: Jonathan Hails Babangida At 84 by casualobserver: 1:22pm On Aug 17, 2025
Tunaji:
Alert Conspiracy Theory: There was this legend that Gideon Orkar actually killed IBB in the 1990 coup. Alas! another IBB came out of a tunnel.

someone like me had not heard of human cloning at that time and Yoruba people often talk about akudaaya, a concept of someone dying in one place but being seen in other places.

Now, the IBB alive now has a chronic neurological disease. I make bold to say it was an attack.



Happy birthday to him, though
Happy birthday to the IBB that died or the one that appeared after he died?

Honestly we need to review the point of wasting so much money on education or the type of education we provide in this country. We should just have sent our citizens to africa Magic theater schools instead!

BTW I hope you are not a clone?
Politics › Re: Bye-election: ADC Claims Victory Against APC In Kaduna Polls by casualobserver: 8:59am On Aug 17, 2025
IgOga:
ADC vanguard aka fake news.

Be deceiving yourself. Even elrufai has gone quiet grin
The ADC vanguard was the X account spreading fake news about ADC victory in Anambra. In the end it wasn’t even close 7,700 to 1900
Politics › Re: APGA’s Emma Nwachukwu (Onọdụgo) Wins Anambra South Senatorial Election by casualobserver: 8:47am On Aug 17, 2025
Betanaija42moro:
This is very funny. Obi and his party LP is not on the ballot, so why are you giving yourself sleepless night?
Who is this campaigning with the ADC candidate?

Politics › Re: APGA’s Emma Nwachukwu (Onọdụgo) Wins Anambra South Senatorial Election by casualobserver: 8:40am On Aug 17, 2025
Appletek:
Peter Obi is finished
They don't even rate him in his backyard.
I wonder how he will negotiate for ticket in the collision
Politics › Re: APGA's Mimi Azikiwe Wins Onitsha North Election (Video) by casualobserver: 8:34am On Aug 17, 2025
Akinboboz:
Thought someone posted yesterday that ADC candidate was winning the election, some people should just accept the reality...either ADC , APC, Pdp or Labour...no saint among them more you look,the less you see.
One day you will learn that fake news, propaganda and gaslight is their only way. If they tell you their name insist on seeing their birth certificate and confirm from their primary school teacher.
Politics › Re: Ballot Papers Pre-Thumb Printed As ADC votes Intercepted In Anambra (Video) by casualobserver: 11:06pm On Aug 16, 2025
madridguy:
This was how they rigged the election for the online president in 2023.
It’s not his first time. There was A 60m bribe to an INEC officer traced to him when he was governor.

He and his mob will come forming saint as if we don’t know him!

Note the date and especially note the last tweet on the page. He is amongst the same people who criticized Obi’s poor performance and corrupt tenure as governor now trying to paint him as a messiah and the only savior.

The Ibos know what they are doing. All they want is an Ibos president and they will sink the country to achieve it. If you like let them gaslight you.

Don’t be misled like Victor Banjo!

Politics › Re: Kaduna By-Election Results by casualobserver:
Coalition lule!

Politics › Re: Results Of Remo Federal Constituency Bye-Election In Ogun by casualobserver: 9:13pm On Aug 16, 2025
free2ryhme:
what a shame to ADC, all this noise just for what? what a shame
They and their supporters will be disgraced!

When we tell them you don’t win elections without governors, they said governors will stay in their parties and work for Collission.

When we tell them polling units are not on Nairaland or twitter, they abuse us. When we tell them all the people in the coalition are yesterdays retired men with name but no followers they abuse us.


Oya now…Shebi it is because of bye elections people like Obi refused to defect? The mic has been tested. Coalition has encountered collision!
Politics › Re: Jonathan’s Entry Would Radically Shake The 2027 Election by casualobserver: 7:28pm On Aug 16, 2025
Ganjafama:
In a four horse race : Tinubu, Obi, Atiku and GEJ, Atiku holds the aces. Jonathan knows that, that's why he's insisting that Atiku and Obi step aside for him. If Tinubu must go it has to be Tinubu vs Atiku/Obi or Tinubu vs GEJ/Kwankwaso.
It’s not a 4 horse race. If Jonathan is not joining unless Atiku and Obi join then Jonathan is not in the race.

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