Casualobserver's Posts
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TheGoodJoe:Did I read somewhere where you claim to be an economics student? Jesus wept! Do you also have a problem with English? Did I say anywhere that diaspora money is govt revenue? I said it is the largest source of forex FOR THE ECONOMY. That does not mean diaspora forex is owned by the government or is revenue for the government. One has to be teaching someone who claims to be an economics student economics on Nairaland! My friend you really don’t understand some basic concepts. For someone who claims to be a student of the subject. And your English comprehension is very poor. Which in itself makes communication hard work. |
TheGoodJoe:I am tired of ignorant people talking without figures. When I post I back it up with figures. Since you are so knowledgeable and so sure of yourself, I am sure you have no problem providing the data or figures, evidence that back what you say. I am telling you right now you can’t present the figures because you don’t know what you are talking about and are an ignoramus! |
djon78:Oga you clearly don’t understand how the banking system works. In the past, a man in America sends money to Nigeria he sends his through back channels because the rate is higher than the official rate. The dollars stays outside the banking system. Either in the hands of the mallam or in the hands of the recipient until they need to change it. With the reforms, you can transfer the dollar to someone in Nigeria via the official banking system. The recipient will get his Naira AT A GOOD RATE and the dollar goes into the Nigerian banking system. That receiving bank will be credited with the dollars. That bank now has dollars to sell to anyone who needs without looking for dollars from CBN. That bank has a customer that needs dollars, he doesn’t have to go to a mallam or the CBN because the bank can give him a competitive rate. That is how you formalize diaspora remittances into the system that was not obtainable previously. At the end of the day what is forex for? To make foreign transactions. If a business man can get dollars from his bank because somebody in New York has sent dollars to their account, then he doesn’t have to utilize the dollars at the CBN. Do you get it now? Nobody said diaspora forex belongs to the government. |
TheGoodJoe:I never said it was govt revenue. I said it is an important source of forex. I will get to forex later. As for revenues. As a percentage of govt revenue it has fallen drastically. Like I said (perhaps on another thread) NNPC did not even remit any revenue for 18 months. Governments largest source of revenue comes from customs duty, CIT, VAT, etc. these. Revenues far exceed our current income from oil. Also we need to seperate onshore oil that is prone to militancy and offshore oil. We are increasingly reliant and only investing in offshore oil. This reduces the need impact of militancy. The issue with militancy is they unwittingly created a system that bypasses them. The multinationals have divested from onshore and all the new investments are offshore. Now to forex: Oil is important because it is a major source of forex but for over 8 years like I said it has not been the major source of forex. The. Problem in the past was that the forex coming in was “not in system” due to the forex regime we operated. With the reforms those inflows now become “part of the system” making the forex from the government less important. |
gidgiddy:I repeat many people are commenting from a position of ignorance. Right now Nigeria makes a paltry $15 from every barrel of Oil that sells for $70. It’s like we are giving the thing away. Why? Because over the years militancy and insecurity have given the oil campaniles to claim high costs of production of $40 a barrel. This means that at $70 all we get is $15 a barrel. 70-40=30, 30/2=15…..50/50 JV. When crude was $80 and production cost was $20, it was worth appeasing militants, Now thanks to past actions of militants production costs is $40 and crude is $70. Add to that for the last 8 years diaspora remittances has been our largest source of forex, add to that we have now integrating diaspora forex inflows into official channels and reserves, addd to that we have a lot more off shore production safe from the nuisance of militants. You add these all together and although you don’t want any militant to blow up any pipeline, the impact is not what it used to be. At $15 dollar a barrel profit, with other sources of forex, with other offshore oil installations, there is less incentive to appease militants. The marginal propensity to appease the militants if you may is not what it was. |
djon78:When I post I give figures. For me to take you seriously I suggest you do your homework and actually find the figures behind the headlines you posted above. I know you haven’t because if you did you would realize I am right. For a start diaspora remittances is $20b a year. Do the math on oil. Production @1.5mpd, govt share of JV is often 50% sometimes 40%, sometimes 60%. Not all the oil we produce belongs to us this is a fallacy of many uninformed Nigerians. On average we keep 50%. That 50% is after cost of production. production cost is $40 a barrel. I think you’ll find out that at $75 a barrel, less than $10b a year from oil goes to the govt. I know it is shocking to you but they’ve been telling you for years, most weren’t paying attention. I will read the rest of your post and reply later in the mean time get some figures to back up your post. Talk is cheap, figures speak for themselves. https://punchng.com/nigerias-diaspora-remittances-exceed-90bn-in-five-years-nidcom/#google_vignetteTV
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ZombieDredd: phantomxx:I suggest you check FAAC revenues for the last few years, I think you’ll find we have been surviving largely on VAT, electronic money levies, CIT and customs duty. Many months there has been no Oil remittances. It was quite a big deal when NNPC made its first remittance to FAAC in ages. https://finance.gov.ng/federal-ministry-of-finance-abuja-press-release-faac-fg-states-lgcs-share-n1354-371-trillion-from-a-gross-total-of-n2483-890-trillion-for-the-month-of-june-2024/# Our budget this year is N54T, customs alone is expected to contribute N12T of that which is over 20%, There is VAT, there is CIT. Dangote alone paid N400b in company tax last year. Like I said, you are not as critical as you think you are…. just like what is playing out in Rivers, we deal in strategy and facts not gra gra and grandstanding and when it fails violence!
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adrusa:It depends on how far you are away from the equator. The further North you go the worse North facing becomes. It may not be such an issue in Southern Nigeria as we are closer to the equator. As for west and east I did mention about morning and evening light. Below is Kano north and south facing . You are right though it is almost immaterial in Lagos being near the equator. But in Kano you will lose as much as 30-40% in some months like January by facing north in addition to lower production for the year..
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phantomxx:I have told you: the importance of oil right now is forex. And even that has gone down from 95% to less than 50%. Most of govt revenues come from vat and taxes. Perhaps you’ve not been listening that there were months without oil remittances. The Oil sector as a percentage of GDP has gone down from 30% in the 1980s to about 7% today. Your major significance right now is forex because it still accounts for just under 50%. Atgough still significant, oil is no longer the major source of forex. That alone should tell you the trend. All the major investments are offshore for a reason. You will wake up one day and no one will care whether you blow up a pipeline or not. You will wake up one day and find out the companies have packed up never to return. Already there are no new onshore investments . You will be the ones begging people to repair the pipelines you blew up when you discover all the jobs have gone. You are important but with every passing day you become less and less important. Enjoy it while it lasts but don’t get carried away with the hype. Companies and investors ar e already making alternative investments devoid of your constant nonsense. |
DMerciful:You people should stop overestimating your importance. Oil is important but it is no longer our largest source of government revenue and from 95%, it it now less that 50% of our forex revenues. Diaspora remittances bring in more forex than the oil sector and from 30% at one time, the oil sector is now less that 7% of our GDP. You are still important but if I were you I would go gently with the delusional narratives. With every year you becoming less and less important. While you hang on to militancy and oil, it seems you may not have realized that Nigeria is slowly but gradually leaving you at the same spot. All our new oil fields and investments are offshore where you can’t touch. One day you will blow pipeline and nobody will even bother to report it. |
DeepSight:IMHO it’s an identity and acceptance problem plus a clash in parenting styles. The ones who tend to be ok are the ones who embrace their blackness or Nigerianess! |
CodeTemplar:It is not, if your roof is facing North for instance you will get very poor production the further North you go because Nigeria is in the Northern hemisphere. For Nigeria the optimal direction is a south facing roof. The next best is west or east facing. West gives you better production in the evening and east better production in the morning. If your roof type is the very steep angled send down the rain type roof and you live in Lagos, your production will be drastically reduced. The ideal angle of your roof is the angle of the latitude of your location. The more your roof deviates from that angle the lower your production. In Lagos the latitude is 6 degrees. If you install solar on a a send down the rain roof in Lagos, you will always struggle to get good production. The further north you go the better it becomes with the same roof angle. This is science. That’s why the location direction and elevation of the roof matters when giving production figures. As an example, below is the estimated yearly production of a 10kw system facing south with 45, 15 and 6 degree angles. The highest production is at a 6 degree angle which is the latitude for Lagos. Not much difference between 6 and 15 degrees but once you start moving into steep roof territory it starts to matter significantly.
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DeepSight:It’s the reality of life. There are things a woman will not dare do when she has a father to account to. There are levels to this thing One who never had a father….the worst When a young girl loses her father at a young age, the next thing to look at is her support system. The 1st step in that is her mother, Oyinbo mother = red flag. To start with even with father and mother present, half caste children are usually never ok. I grew up with many of them, only 1 in 10 amount to anything in life. They are inherently confused, wayward, antisocial behaviorally messed up children neither here nor there. Usually involved in drugs or other anti social behaviour. They usually have a problem with identity. |
Cunny man die, cunny man bury am. When Fubara tried to silence the representatives of 27 elected representatives of the people, they didn’t see the assault on democracy? When he destroyed the state assembly they didn’t see assault on democracy? Now a man who passed laws, appointed commissioners, spent state resources illegally is now a saint and those who are retrying to remove him for breaking the law are the bad guys? Both sides played a dirty game, one was too dumb to execute and lost. To the Victor the spoils of war because if Fubara had siceeeded in removing the 27, there would be no sympathy for them. He who lives by the sword and all that…also known as cunny man die cunny man bury am! |
GloryJoyeux:Do you mind sharing location (town or latitude), panel direction and tilt Thanks |
Those of us with experience with women like this told you from the start she is an entitled manipulative woman. When we told you normal women don’t have children with multiple men you called us misogynists. 2 is a mistake, sometimes it can be overlooked definitely not 3 different baby daddies. When we said even her female senators did not support her, you went after them. When we told you she has made unfounded sexual allegations in the past, you ignored it. When we said rather than backing her this is the kind of woman that spoils things for other women you didn’t listen. Oya now, prove the sexual allegations, report to police, Shebi she said she has evidence…no! Instead she is going to every station in every country doubling down looking for international sympathy! When we tell you stay away from women without fathers…this is why. Her father died at 19, next year she was married and pregnant. Is it Oyinbo mother that will control her? |
This is war and winner takes all. If the seats of the 27 lawmakers had been declared vacant would Fubara show any sympathy? He lost the battle, he should face the consequences..no mercy! |
I must say, the behavior of the ijaws tells me they have Ibo DNA. All ego , all emotion, no strategy and the inevitable default to violence when lack of strategic action fails.
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Penguin2:Abeg see this nincompoop! What facts? Like your brain and the brains of those leading Fubara to his Waterloo are capable of recognizing facts if they encountered them. I recognize an eediot when I interact with one and just don’t have anymore time for endless back and forth. Nothing concern me with Rivers matter but pure entertainment. To attempt to drag Tinubu into the matter for something you caused yourselves? We are calling your bluff. My parting message to you is this: Don’t vote for Tinubu, if you like blow the pipelines! That’s all I want you to know! I don’t have time for shalaye! Abeg let us rest. Nobody has time for adults who make choices and then start crying when the results don’t go their way. Tha
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Penguin2:Oga please stop disturbing me with your nonsense. Your problems, your making, your wahala, your consequences. If you like don’t vote for Tinubu that you didn’t vote for in 2023, if you like blow up pipeline, we don’t care! We are thinking people, we don’t do emotion and gra gra! Nobody is interested in your tales of woe! Abeg rest! |
1x2x3:It is people who we’re born after 1999 that think Lagos was developed by outsiders. I wonder why the outsiders can’t develop where they are coming from. If they are so skilled at developing? What you call development is actually chaos’s and destruction. Building over canals etc. we never had floods up til thr 1990s. |
gidgiddy:Fake coke, fake alchohol, fake spare parts, why won’t you have fake Ohaneze? |
Penguin2:Oga STFU and stop forming any fake righteousness. Where were you when the governor demolished the house of the people? Abi you don’t know th state assembly is the house of the people? Where were you when he excluded 27 members elected by the people Abi the 27 constituents don’t deserve a voice? Where were you when he and Wike were doing deals for 8 years? Which yeye people? Na now you know people? STFU! You entered a battle with emotions ego and not your brains and it has backfired…..deal with the consequences. You chose to listen to irresponsible elders instead of a truce by Tinubu. Deal with the consequences. You lay your bed…you lie on it. Don’t blame Tinubu for your problems! And if you do that’s your business. |
Penguin2:Let nobody tell you good education is a waste of money. You clearly are not well educated. Irev is a viewing portal. Like I said if you remove the 400k votes and add to his closest rival he still won so stop giving yourselves an importance you do not have! The difference between us and you like I said is that when we don’t engage in battles indiscriminately but when we do we have factored in the worst case scenario and are ready for it. Our brains lead us not ego or emotion. We don’t cheat beat and then beg the president to intervene to save us. When we tell you if you don’t vote for us Heaven will not fall, it means your votes won’t be the deciding factor and if your votes are the votes that will make the difference, even then so be it. He will go back home and receive a hero’s welcome as an ex president! He has already cemented his role in history, forex and fuel subsidy removal, tax law changes, Lg autonomy. These are things nobody will reverse and the anchors x for a prosperous Nigeria. Go to hell! Go and fix your mess and keep Tinubu and Yorubas out of it. Don’t create problems you are not ready for the consequence. Learn to control your emotions and your ego. Learn to think before you act! Our elders settle Problems not create problems. LASG assembly and Afe Babalola are 2 recent e xamples of problems that could have spiraled out of control but were settled by elders. That is why we have peace in our land! Your elders instead take sides when children are fighting and stoke the fires! A governor is supposed to lead not be led by mobs! You say you are brave and not cowards, no problem…what you see you see. Tinubu has become president, getting there was the problem, now we don’t care if he comes home! He has done in 2 years what others feared to take on in 24! Finally it is ironic that these same people will be shouting good governance. This man commited multiple impeacheable offenses including bulldozing the state legislature. I guess good governance is only required of others. I’d you like don’t vote for Tinubu, if you like blow up pipelines. Heaven will not fall Nd Nigerias will move on! |
1x2x3:Lagos is not beautiful, Lagos stinks, I am not disagreeing. I know what Lagos was like before everyone started moving to Lagos. It is a glorified slum because it is overwhelmed with immigrants. I am simply telling you that the reason Lagos is unbearable is because of unfettered immigration. I can say it, the people who cause it to stink can’t say it. If you don’t like it go home and say it when you get home! It is poor upbringing to go to someone’s house and say the house smells especially while you are there……even if it does!
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Your father is governor, tell him to teach your people how to fish. |
Well said LASG! Enough of the Wokeness that has characterized. the Sanwoolu administration. |
Amosun is a useless man but there is more to this story and why Amosun did not want anything Dangote in Ogun state. Dangote is far from a saint in this matter. If you know the root of the matter you might begin to see Amosun’s hostility towards anything Dangote in Ogun state as legitimate at least in principle….especially if you are an indigene of Ogun state. I can’t reveal as I have never heard it said publicly but I can tell you the matter affects, Ogun Ondo and Edo states. |
Penguin2:Oga don’t overestimate your importance. While every vote counts, Tinubu did not win because of rivers votes. He won by 2m votes and Rivers only gave him 230k votes. This is a fight between Wike and Fubara, nothing to do with Tinubu. As a responsible leader he brokered a peace deal. It was your chop chop elders that because of what they are collecting led Fubara astray and advised him wrongly. In the end the deal Tinubu proposed is better that the situation they now find themselves. Blaming Tinubu for this is blackmail and basically you are asking him to side with your camp and rescue Fubara for failing to heed his advice. If na your 400k votes dey give you arrogance, carry the 230k votes and rest. Worst case scenario he will come back to bourdillon as an ex president……heaven will not fall!!! A governor who behaved like Fubara did deserves to be impeached! The fact that Wike clearly still enjoys support in Rivers also says that a lot of you making noise threatening Tinubu with votes likely never voted for him in the first place so there is no vote to withdraw. You can’t withdraw something you never gave. We are not foools we are thinking people. We don’t engage in gra gra and false bravery only to go back and eat our vommit. We analyze, we strategize and we embark on battles that are winnable. If a battle is not winnable we stoop to conquer later or accept our fate. So when I tell you that Tinubu can’t be threatened with votes, trust me it is because he has done all the analysis. Something you would do well to learn before you embark on winless battles. You were warned at the start this would be the end result, you said no we are brave people, we don’t do Godfather, no be Godfather Put am into office? When Wike single-handedly campaigned and put him in office why didn’t you say no to Godfatherism then? We saw the campaigns on TV, Fubara did not speak, it was Wike talking. I didn’t know what His voice sounded like till he became governor. |
Oh He left APC? Lagos did not notice! |
sukar886:How? How many votes did Wike give him in 2023? How many of those votes will go in 2027 because of impeachment? People just make senseless emotional comments without examining the data or facts. |
technicallyrich:Excuse me whose votes won him the election in the first place when the North felt he should not contest because it was Yaradua’s and hence the North’s slot? He made a deal with Tinubu in 2011 and the SW voted for him. The SW withdrew that block vote in 2015. |
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