Casualobserver's Posts
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1BillionThumbs:It seems there is a problem with the way we educate Nigerians such that they can’t think logically and seperate issues. You asked if she lied, about what because she said many things? Either way what she said was her opinion. That Lagos stinks or that Tinubu is terrible is her and your opinion! Opinions are not facts. There are people who love Lagos and think Tinububis the second coming. There are also those who hold the opinion that it is the mass influx of people like her that make Lagos smell. What is a fact is that it is against the code of conduct for government employees to criticize the government. These laws existed since independence. These laws exist in every country. You are clearly poorly educated if you don’t realize that a civil servant including corpers sign the code of conduct. Nobody forced a government worker to work for the government or a corper to sign the code of conduct. If you want to exercise your human rights to abuse the president of a state, don’t join the civil service or the NYSC or wait till you finish your service year. As for looting that’s not the subject. People introduce new subject when their intellect fails them or they realize they have lost the argument. |
AdesegunSanni89:Atiku should know better as someone who spent his career in the civil service and customs. Corpers are not allowed to criticize the government, engage in politics or insult the state of posting while a corper! Think about it, imagine your employee abusing and insulting you? What would you do? Exactly! That’s why government workers including corpers have a code of conduct. |
1BillionThumbs:While you are standing with her take time to read the NYSC code of conduct. It clearly states you are not allowed to insult your home state or criticize the government. |
AMINDA:Many politicaL office aspirants have been led down the wrong path by cyberspace presence. The voters who determine elections are not in cyberspace neither do they watch Arise news. |
The NYSC is not a paramilitary organization so she can criticize or even abuse the president. The NYSC officials were out of order. Plus she was not in uniform. That said the girl is stooopid and a symptom of the disease of our youth putting all their business on social media. Even the way she was talking with a sense of entitlement I would never hire her. I would hate to listen to or deal with such a person. |
People need to be a bit more discerning. ElRufai wanted to be a minister. Therefore he is clearly still politically ambitious. For someone who has been a governor and a minister what else is there to aim for but the presidency or possibly the VP as a stepping a stone. Park that for now. Northern ambitious politicians especially some governors want to be president. An opening is coming up for the North either in 2027 or 2031. If you as an ambitious northern politician don’t seize that opportunity, that’s your chance of being the president gone. A Northern president in 2027 cannot hand over to another northerner in 2031 or 2035 especially after denying the South its 2 terms. The idea that ElRufai, Atiku, Kwankwanso, Bala Mohammed or the likes of Sule Lamido or Tambuwal will work for each other to make one the president in 2027 is to me a fallacy! And to me this is where the alliance unravels. Atiku will run, constitutionally he can’t be a VP again meaning any northern heavy weight supporting him is basically kissing goodbye to any presidential ambition. My prediction: they will fail to form an alliance or will engage in anti-alliance activities and split the votes again. Be under no illusion, there are ambitious Northern opposition heavyweights who want to be president and would rather wait for 2031 by which time 1) Atiku their main threat would be too old to run thus giving them a smoother path and 2) they would be able to count on undiluted southern votes. Nobody is doing this out of the interests of the people. Where you stand is based on how the permutations serve you politically. It is politically suicidal for any ambitious northern heavy weight to back any northern candidate other than himself. For the same reason the likes of Fayemi, Osinbajo, Tunde Bakare etc contested against Tinubu….they knew it is then or never. After Tinubu the SW will not be president for 40 years….a generation! For an ambitious northern politician, he knows it is better to back a southern candidate in 2027. Furthermore, he also knows backing Tinububserves his interests better because he can’t contest again in 2031. If he backs a fresh southern candidate like Amaechi or Obi, they could break any agreement to serve one term like Jonathan at which point they would also have the power of incumbency. If Atiku wins he can’t handover to another Northerner so It does not serve the interest of ANY northern governor whether PDP or APC to back another Northerner in 2027 other than himself. I say this not because I support Tinubu. For me the logical, smart move for an ambitious Northern governor or politician is to back, be seen to back and deliver for Tinubu in 2027. A Sule lamido, Tambuwal, Kwakwanso, Bala Mohammed, even Saraki have nothing to gain politically by backing Atiku or aligning with ElRufai if they nurse ambitions to be president themselves. With Atiku out of the picture in 2031, the SW vote and Tinubu’s backing will play a big role if not determine which Northerner becomes president in 2031. Politicians make deals all the time, In 2011 despite ACN having a presidential candidate Tinubu made a deal with Jonathan and delivered SW votes. In 2023, Wike and Makinde made a deal with Tinubu. Again I repeat your relevance in politics is predicated on your ability to deliver votes. ElRufai has no votes backing him. The only Northerners I can see as part of any coalition especially are those who are either political lightweights or have no presidential ambition. When the time comes those who have votes and have ambitions will make the right deals for them. Leave ElRufai and his social media content. We know the fate of all social media politicians like Sowore and Fela Durotoye. So you see, personal ambition will trump any alliance and all that is happening now is just noise. The difference between this proposed alliance/merger and the Tinubu/Buhari alliance is that the APC merger was a win win for everybody involved in the merger. Tinubu did not want to be president in 2015, so he was happy just to have his party at the center…..win, Buhari became president….win, Amaechi became minister….win, Saraki became senate president….win…..none of the leaders of the blocks that merged were interested in the presidency. The eastern flank represented by Rochas and Ngige were not interested in becoming president. This merger will only produce a win for one and career extinction for the others and that’s why it won’t work. A good deal is a deal where everyone gets what he wants. |
porthouse7:I’ve told ibos this but they don’t understand. It’s not what ibos think about Obi that matters, it’s what others think of him because it is others that can make him the president not ibos. Even Orji Kalu said it that ibos have to present a candidate that is acceptable to other regions. No one can rule Nigeria without acceptance by he other regions. Obi is unacceptable by other regions and so the ibos are wasting valuable political capital and time queuing behind Obi. He is DOA! . |
JASONjnr:Have no fear, if there is one thing you can predict 100%, it is that Peter Obi will never be a president of Nigeria. Not in 2027, not ever! |
opeaskey:It is the norm now but in the past it wasn’t uncommon to have a colonel or brigadier as GOC. Abacha was GOC 2nd mech Ibadan as a brigadier general. Murtala was GOC as a colonel. Of the six GOC 1st div kaduna from formation till 1979, only Akinrinade was a major General. 1 was a colonial and 4 were Brigadiers. Obasanjo and Adekunle were GOC 3rd div as colonels. As with most government positions then, we were a growing country and not enough qualified personnel so the few who were qualified rose faster. The spate of coups and turnover of personnel didn’t help either. |
mightyhaze:Don’t worry we saw what you deleted. When you jump into every topic with tribal bias it is inevitable you make a f0ol of yourself and have to delete your post. |
@richtaiwo, if you had read the text and not just looked at the picture, it clearly states their ranks. As for positioning, Diya was the host governor, Buhari was head of state. |
ElRufai made a school boy error defecting to SDP. It shows he is not a true politician. |
Richtaiwo:Abacha became a brigadier general in 1980 and a major General in 1984. At the time of this picture he was a major general! When Abacha later became CoAS, Diya was a GOC. |
Zico5:Oga even armed robbers and drug pushers have you seen any executions in a civilian regime in Nigeria? Governors are always afraid to sign death warrants so no point asking for the impossible. As for jail terms they already exist. But you can o Lu convict a man if you have evidence. Many of these people loot in such a way it can’t be traced to them. Plus all of them have skeletons, including our saint from Anambra. You expose one they bring out your own file. |
Svoboda:SA sef should move softly. The street of the US embassy you want to name after a palestinian terrorist? haba! |
I am all for local production of petrol, a supporter of the Dangote and other local refineries and I would even support a ban on importation of refined petroleum products. I don’t see why we are spending scarce forex to import PMS when we have active refineries. However it is my opinion that we should not get carried away with the reduction in petrol prices as I believe he is playing a game to wipe out his competitors before raising prices. My reasoning is based on the fact that diesel prices from Dangote compared to PMS are priced at amuch higher premium than what obtains internationally. Which leads me to believe that Dangote’s current PMS pricing is artificial and being “subsidized” by retaining diesel at a higher price than it should. It doesn’t happen anywhere in the world where the price differential between petrol and diesel is 15-20%. That suggests artificial pricing. Below are the prices for petrol and diesel in Ghana and the uk. You can see the disparity is only about 1-5% if the ex depot price for PMS is N815, then Diesel should be no more than N870-N900 max IMHO as opposed to the current price of N1020. By keeping the price of diesel at N1020, it suggests to me he has N120 above average profit on diesel to wage a PMS price war.
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There is foolishness and there is delusion. It seems as if the Fubara camp act without thinking or are getting advice from daft people. Every step they have taken so far has backfired. Do you know what it takes to recall an elected official? Let me break it down to you. Everybody who has registered since 1999 is on the electoral register. Including those who have moved to other states, but not bothered to change their polling unit, those who have japad and those who are dead. The law now says you must gather 50% of them to recall an elected official. Do you not realize how mathematically impossible that is? The number of people that voted in the elections for all candidates is usually less than 20% of the registered voters and you think you can gather signatures of 50% of the registered voters for a recall. Do you know what it took in funds and campaigns to get the 20% to come out to vote? ….and you think you can locate 50% of the registered voters and if you do they will agree to sign the recall notice? Do you know how hard it is to get a voter to sign a recall notice? When voting I have to go to the polling unit, when recalling you have to come to my house to get my signature. Honestly there is something in the water they are giving Fubara supporters to drink. Below is an example from 2016 of the registered voters of the speaker’s LGA and the actual number of people who voted Finally don’t forget this is Wike’s local government. Even if everyone is alive and you can get to them, you can’t get 50% in Wike’s stronghold.
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ElevationD:The mistake people make with ElRufai is they don’t seem to realize he is a technocrat, he is not a grassroots politician, he doesn’t have grassroots followership. The key actors in the APC alliance were Buhari and Tinubu with large followership. This alliance will sink or swim based on Atiku and Obi. All other actors are largely irrelevant and the most irrelevant of which is ElRufai. He has a high nuisance value but little or no political value ie votes. When I say irrelevant, I mean politically and as I always say, your relevance in politics is determined by your ability to deliver votes. In PDP, CPC and APC, ElRufai’s “power” stood on the shoulder of giants. He is a brilliant technocrat a fierce critic with an intellect rare amongst the political class and a very sharp tongue but he does not deliver any votes. So in terms of delivering votes for the purpose of unseating Tinubu where he goes is largely irrelevant. The key actors are Atiku, Obi and to a lesser extent Kwakwanso. ElRufai for me is in the category of Reno, FFK etc. They are noisy but have no electoral value but you want them on your side and not on your case because they have the intelligence, articulation and thoroughness most political actors lack and you really don’t want them against you because their nuisance value and ability to embarrass the government is very high. If ElRufai had the followership and foot soldiers someone like Wike has, or the cult folloship of Obi he would be deadly…..but he doesn’t! He is piggybacking of the political structure and followership of others. So in the hard reality he is just a nuisance, an irritation but of no real consequence. Elections are won by people who can deliver votes. Wherever ElRufai is he needs others to deliver votes. |
I agree wholeheartedly that ElRufai is the opposition people that Atiku and Obi have failed to be. The problem is ElRufai has no followership. Those with followership have no intellect. |
This is all about the dollar. The number one threat to America is its unsustainable debt and the loss of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. South Africa is the weakest of the BRICS hence the attacks on South Africa. Ordinarily you’d ask yourself why the focus on South Africa by the US? |
lovelyefem:Obi can never win a presidential election in Nigeria. His only value is as VP. Rather than back Obi as president, the Northern elements against Tinubu would rather back Tinubu. Those in the North against Tinubu will see it as a case of the lesser of 2 evils. As VP, Obi adds votes to an Atiku ticket in a 1+1=2. But as the presidential Candidate. At least half the northern Atiku votes will go to Tinubu so 1+1=1.5. Don’t forget Atiku cannot be a VP again. There is no strong Northern candidate that can compensate for the absence of Atiku on the ticket and the fact that in that scenario the northern candidate will only be a VP. Peter Obi is unelectable. |
Post deleted. Accidentally responded to an eeediot |
Racoon:The analysis was largely correct until the last paragraph. Nigeria’s GDP per capita (PPP) is actually higher than its nominal GDP per capita. The purpose of GDP per capita on a PPP basis is to give a true reflection of that economy as if citizens of that country lived in the US. On a PPP basis our GDP per capita is approx $5,000 pa. What that meaNs is that the average Nigerian has an economic output equivalent of $5000 in the US. The problem is $5,000 p.a is extreme poverty in the US. So there is no disparity. |
Oghene86:If you don’t have a brain or don’t know how to use the one God gave you please borrow someone’s brain before you post. |
What utter nonsense! Did anyone hear anyone dissent when the matter was brought to the house for a vote? |
There is a reason why the current opposition are in opposition and once again we shall witness it play out before our very eyes. I have said it many times. The problem with the opposition is no gree for anybody. The reason why APC wins is because they have party disciple and enforce party supremacy. The people in the opposition are serial defectors whether Obi, Kwakwanso, Atiku or ElRufai. They are never loyal to party but to themselves and they will implode once again. ElRufai has not spent one week in SDP and he is plotting the removal of The secretary. Obi joined LO and was trying to dictate to and sideline the party exco! And you wonder why they lose elections, you wonder why they keep defecting? Q: How do you have 14m votes and lose to a man with 8m votes? A: No gree for anybody mentality! El Rufai is not doing all this just to be a minister, he (delusionally) wants to be president or VP, Obi wants to be president, Atiku wants to be president in fact he can’t be a VP again. Kwakwanso wants to be president, Bala Mohammed wants to be president. We will see which of these people whose DNA is no gree for anybody will gree for somebody this time. However make no mistake about it, the key actors in the current opposition are fractured and dispersed PDP members and what caused their down fall? Failure to agree and when they agree, failure to honour agreements…..starting with Jonathan. The key anchors of the APC (Buhari, Tinubu) have never been PDP members. |
The old adage “empty barrels make the most noise”. His desperation to grab the headlines belies his irrelevance politically. Like I always say: Politics 101: your relevance is determined by your ability to deliver votes. ElRufai does not have a followership or a political structure. He is irrelevant. |
fuckJones:Recalling an elected official is like creating a state. Theoretically it is possible but in reality it is DOA. Basically it only exists n the constitution to fulfill all righteousness. Anyone embarking on state creation or a recall exercise is either playing to the gallery, grandstanding or mentally retard3d. |
Oghene86:A lower court judge cannot cannot give a contradictory ruling to that of the Supreme Court… That is why it is called “supreme”. It’s like you people did not go to school! |
UcheKingsley1:Try and use your brains before you post. You can’t be a vice president for 3 terms so the idea that Atiku will be vice to Obi is DOA. Even Jonathan that did not do a full 8 years cannot run for president again. The law was changed in 2017.
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PresidObi:Supreme Court has already ruled on the matter. The case is redundant! When we say pay attention in school you won’t, you will be shouting education is a scam |
TimeManager:This is what we tell the Ibos and our Fubara supporters in Rivers. Know when you don’t have a good hand, stoop to conquer, play the long game, disarm your opponent then strike when you have gathered all the cards. Not this one that you make noise and gra gra up and down and telegraph your game tactics long before kickoff so your opponent has time to counter you. |
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