₦airaland Forum

Youngzedd:
Dangote Refinery To Save Nigeria $30bn In Forex Yearly, Says Emefiele


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRpXSX3FC48&pp=ygUPI3NhdmVuaWdlcmlhbm93#bottom-sheet


Using USD to buy products produced in Nigeria is against the law of the land.


The FG should support Dangote Refinery with their full chest. Give this man 650k crude daily and end fuel importation.

@Bolded
Unfortunately crude oil among other global commodities are exceptions to this rule..
I suppose whole-sale byproducts as well especially as DR is located in a free Trade zone

Agbalowomeri:
Make ASI retest 67k fess, I want to check something

I doubt if even COVID can do that stunt again.

Streetinvestor2:
Just like you are writing rubbish because you love the president and other reasons. Which stupid supreme Court judgement. How can a court pass judgement on a matter that was not before her.At what point was defection of law makers brought to supreme court. A case has not even gone through federal high and appeal court and you made pronouncement on it.On what facts did supreme court use to make such judgment. Stop thinking we are foolish. Since your claimed judgement has the governor not taken steps to honour what was on the judgement. He desolved the lga.Tried representing the budget....rubbish .
I wish the military will equally come for his terrible government soon

Be calming down...
ee go better

Mpeace:
"Asset" bank should be a Case study of how company majority owners and executives live large while shareholder only get "hope" as reward.

The former CEO built a world class mansion and university etc ... as he continued to "expand the bank"
The new set are saying simply saying "emi lokan" (it my turn) to "expand the bank"

They just need a benefit of doubt until 2027 when their latest modus operandi will end
Afterall, dem dey premium board, so them no go dey do anyhow.

KarlTom:
Is this a different case

I thought Ote$ (and FBNH) is charging them for about ₦30bn...

The money just dey 'reduce' after every siting

be like lawyer n Court fees bin dey inclusive for the Davido $30bn Account matter.

Now wey ee be out of Court things, na bargain Price sure pass..
Na guess I dey guess ni

Make this case kuku settle make Otudeko fit drink water drop Cup.

GeneralDae:
SEPLAT settles debt to FG.

https://nairametrics.com/2025/03/16/alleged-debt-seplat-and-chorus-energy-pays-n28-7-billion-to-nigerias-federation-account-reps/

Seplat is already to the moon..
Na Sun now eee day target for share price

Agbalowomeri:
Which one be quantum again
Una due use brokers o

Zenith bank has officially joined the bank-Brokerage gang.
They seem to be learning tge ropes gradually

GeneralDae:
They still supplied crude to Dangote refinery this past Friday though and by their statement (yet to be refuted), have supplied an average of 297k bpd since October 2024.

https://punchng.com/dangote-refinery-gets-fresh-crude-cargoes-from-nnpcl/

thanks for the update..
But it still suggests the deal isn't finalised yet..
From the page, they even had to delay the crude-shipment at the sea pending whether the naira-crude deal will continue or not.

But the major issue isn't the crude-Naira deal, it's the quantity.
@297kbpd you quoted is even less than 50% of DR requirement.

Depending solely on Nigeria will run DR bankrupt.
He will and is currently sourcing from outside.
https://businessday.ng/news/article/dangote-refinery-eyes-higher-imports-amid-talks-on-naira-for-crude-deal/


Seems NNPC in all their joint ventures don't have enough to go around after deducting statutory obligation.
But I am coming from the angle that the future-oil-contract sale might just be a blessing in disguise given current global price and possibly low demand.
(though I don't know the terms of the sale-contract)

zendi:
To flood everywhere with oil.
In other words to crash the price of crude oil.

It's up to oil companies to adapt and survive. But Trump wants cheap oil and that's the whole point of drill baby drill. Trump actually wants baby to drill himself to death.

But baby (oil companies) can adapt and survive by deploying technologies that will help them drill profitably even with oil at $30/Barrell.

Now back to the origin of this conversation.
Trump will crash oil. Oando had experienced this during Trump's first coming,
It was the drill baby drill of the US Shale Industry that took OANDO stock down to N5.
With Trump back in office, a repeat of history is almost certain. Oil glut and price crash is almost inevitable. That's why Oando is in mad quest for a Refinery.

Aradel has a Refinery, albeit a baby one.
If you can't sell your crude, you turn it to petrol and sell.

Aliko will be King beneficiary of drill baby drill with his oceanic capacity Refinery. Traders from all over the world will beg him to take crude oil. The Nigerian mafia that tried to frustrate him will beg him to take crude. And already, Refineries are shutting down all over far left Europe to depend on DangRef. Aliko will quickly climb into world's top 10.

The Nigerian Mafia
Those ones don't have crude to beg Dangote to take again.
They have sold all of them 5-10 years in advance if not more..

Shey u dey read the latest shenanigans and tit-for-tat playing out in the Crude-for-Naira Deal?
( to be or not to be going forward)

I think the mafias will be better off if crude price crashes. As they have already sold our crude 5yrs in advance at a costlier rate of $70 and above before Drill-baby-Drill ascension to power.

So weather low prices + low crude demand worldwide..
The so called mafias have secured their future clients..

Youngzedd:
I've got no worries because they've got good products and a solid management team who walks the talk.

ARADEL team always show full working, no be chochocho and buying Ad spaces and influencers

Lol.. @ Ad spaces..
When ee go strike, na spaces go dey do the Ads Free-of-Charge..

Padipadi:
You are the real olodo. Who programed what's generated?

Its not programmed.
If it were, same questions by everybody as well as repeated questions will produce the same answers to every one..

It's responses are not programmed.

KarlTom:
Gotcha

Welldone.

With Aradels 41.67% ownership of NDWestern and 20.84% of Reinessance through ND western, That breakdown suggests/Infers:
ND western holds about about 50.01% stake in Reinessance and by extension, also about 50.01% stake in the Shell acquisition as well.(20.84/0.4167)

Thus ND western are the majority holders of the consortium-Renaissance.

Therefore by extension, baring any other single majority holder in NDWestern (verification needed), it can be inferred that ARADEL with an assumed single majority of 41.67% stake in ND western==> who in turn owns a calculated-known majority stake of 50.01% in Reinessance, is the Outright Majority holder of Reinessance Energy consortium with a strong controlling and decision making interest despite its 33.34% stake.


Summary:
Aradel is the Outright Majority holder of Reinessance Energy with 33.34% stake.

The rest of the consortium outside NDWestern will make do with ==> 37.49%.
100%-(50.01% +12.5%)

I hope I dey make sense?

SonofElElyonRet:
This should pump the price till qualification day if it happens

The guess is on the premise that UBA fully comes to the market for the 40-45% balance of their capitalisation.

If they break the capitalisation method to include PP or debt instrument.
It might not happen.

courage89:
Very very interesting. Tony just cornered all the upstream business to himself. It would be nice to know Transcorp % ownership of Heirs Energies. How much of Transcorp assets was used to develop Heirs energy?

@Bolded if Na you nko?

Though I just think his Oil business aren't much in their numbers yet and as competitive as their peers..
Him never get wetin him want from that oil sector yet.

BabsO2:
What do you guess he will pay as final dividend for UBA.?

I guess interim will be sustained or a little more.

They still need to capitalize. The general public will also need incentive as RI.

BabsO2:
You say what

GABON ECONOMY: TONY ELUMELU RECEIVED BY PRESIDENT BRICE OLIGUI NGUEMA

Say no more

https://nairametrics.com/2025/03/12/billionaire-tony-elumelus-net-worth-surges-to-2-15bn-as-heirs-holdings-firms-see-record-growth/

BabsO2:
Now UCAP has done the proper thing
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/43329_UNITED_CAPITAL_PLC-PROPOSED_DIVIDEND__CORPORATE_ACTIONS_MARCH_2025.pdf

He remain CBN to stop the delay in releasing UBA .

U be really Pro-Elumelu
On his Mandate

Valthegreat:
Please I want to understand something about this 3 Transcorp PLC's is see on the exchange. If Transco Hotel is the Transcorp hotel I know and Transpower is the Ughelli power and of recent Afam power that I know too, now my question is what is now the business of Transcorp PLC?

As @Mpeace has stated and shown and to throw more Light.
Those with 100% ownership-transcorp takes the top level decisions in those, manage staff and daily resources and directly operate the company..

Those between 50-70%, Transcorp probably makes the top level critical board decisions. I don't think they directly manage the staff, resources or day to day running of the company..

A holding company makes major decisions in all of its subsidiaries. By holding at least 50% or majority stake in all its acquisitions, transcorp is a holding company.

Also, there are others not listed on NGX like the Afam Power companies, Transcorp crude oil (OPL 281), Transcorp hotel Portharcourt, etc which they control, manage staff and resources and operate day to day 100%..
These 95-100% ownership can be referred to as the core business of Transcorp PLC.(the company)

crownprince2017:
What if Tony wanted to use the money to buy stake in uba to ease meeting recapitalization of the bank..

Tony want use accounting loopholes to run us street ...

Remember, they wanted to increase their stake sometimes last year una no gree, here is the headache.

Game is game in megawealth voice.

The Deed has already started
Page 127

Streetinvestor2:
The truth is what Tony is paying out as dividend from the PAT is small.I hope the 41 billion will not be wasted and be kept back as retained earnings. I hope we don't begin to see exceptional items eating up this cash soon.

Exceptional items..

pluto09:
I didn't say they are wrong or they made a mistake.
That complex calculation is not just necessary
They are not going to pay dividend based on os of 35b or are they?

You are right though Dividend is based on 10.16bn OS.
But the earning isn't.

I guess since they didn't Outrightly cancel the OS but reserved, the earnings attributed to it will also be reserved as well, hence the abracadabra

If the reconstructed shares were cancelled(similar to selling an asset), then probably an Eps of ₦5+ isn't out of place
(similar to sharing a sale-proceed)

KarlTom:
Not really (at the bolded)

Even though I'm not a professional financial analyst, I believe that they have a very competent team.

[b]You can't expect them to make such a blatant mistake [/b]though I'm not 100% in alignment with the 'abracadabra'...

Lol.. They can make blatant mistake Oo..
no one is immune.
I believe they made an error in their Eps computation of their Q3 UFS result.

Streetinvestor2:
But this 60kobo will shared on 10B os abi the 35.32 Os.
Tony wan scam us walahi

Lol..na 35bn OS.

As i no see Q4,
From my little calculation, Q4 PAT for controlling interest no reach ₦7bn(even ₦6bn sef).
If Tony bin pay 1₦/share as final=₦10.16bn, that one na to give out 100% PAT from Q4 + dip jara from Q3
He sha needs retained earnings to settle debts and liabilities.

I prefer to look at it from PAT rather than the OS.

full year PAT--₦51.52bn
payout--(4.1bn + 6bn)10.16bn
Payout ratio≈≈20%

He should sha do better this year.

BabsO2:
The computed number is a meaningless mathematical exercise. Waste of time for the common shareholder abeg. Maybe they're trying to use the confusion to claim they have a high dividend payout ratio.

Lols.. I get you sha, but not quite meaningless per say.
It will create a false narrative on performance.
An apparent eps of ₦5 is no different from the hype then-when it was widely reported that Transcorp has done over 400% increase=in SP .
They didn't factor the re-construction.

From their 9months UFS
PAT(Q1-Q3)= ₦44.874bn
9month EPS = ₦1.104k


Q4(assumption)
By working backward, in Q4, they probably made (51.524bn -44.874bn)=
PAT =₦6.65bn
OS= 10.162bn
EPS= ₦0.65439k


Add this Q4(assumed) EPS to the 9months UFS Eps =>
₦0.65439k + ₦1.104k
=₦1.75839k
Not far-off from the Audited full year of ₦1.45k.

So, 4th quarter PAT is between₦5-₦7bn
(controlling interest).
It's obvious Transcorp never made up-to ₦1 EPS in any quarter.

If you add all dem quarterly eps together, How do you now explain Eps of over ₦5 for Full year?

Agbalowomeri:
I don't really understand the rationale for all these weighting Lol. So 1 share pre-reconstruction had same weight as 1 share post-reconstruction? Wha do we even need the weighting for when dividend will be paid based on new OS? Abi dem recently employed one intern data scientist who wan show skills 😂

I believe, iF some of the Profit was made from the old OS. Then Eps (not dividend) will consider this old OS

KarlTom:
The figure used for computing the EPS is correct.

2024 has 366 days.
The Reconstruction was completed on October 28, 2024 (valid from 31 October, 2024 using T+3).
OS of 40.64b was valid for 305days
OS of 10.16b was valid for 61days


Average OS = ((305*40.64) +(61*10.16)) /366
= 35.56b

Exactly, Another angle..
I think i prefer yours

unite4real:
I really cannot wrap my head around this robbery.

Transcorp had N51 Billion PAT. OS was divided by 4 in October and share price multiplied by 4. Yet they went ahead to use a weight average to compute EPS with about 35B shares.
I don't know if this is normal.. why don't they also prorate the value of each share as well and pay back the difference to share holders who held the stock before reconstruction.

From the N51Bn PAT, the computation was on 35 billion units when in reality the number of shares that gets paid from this is 10 billion units.
Where are the remaining dividend of the other 25 billion units going to

Hmmm.. But I want to believe by my understanding that the 51bn PAT is just consolidation from the quarterly results and not entirely new profit..
Out of it, interim has already been paid already with old OS of 40.64bn.

The report is just to present accounts for the full year with what is in the bank account.

I think the issue is we don't have a separate Q4 result for more informed decision.
All I see is- for the year ended 31st December 2024.

There would probably be issues if they had used the 35bn OS on Q4 result alone..

BabsO2:
What a meaningless eps computation that gives a lower value than reality. Same shares of 4 turned into one is being weighted. When no money was raised or shares bought back this computation is pure distortion.

Well, Shares were cancelled transferred to their reserve and their share capital was equally reduced by 4. Looks technically like a buy-back to me

I believe that should count for sth.
Also, the OS was over 40bn for about 9months.. Seems only appropriate for the full year.

Probably 10.16bn should be used only from Q4,2024 going forward I suppose.

unite4real:
I didn't expect the EPS to be less than N5. The profit after tax attributed to owners of parent is N51 Billion. So if the current OS of around 10 Billion was used, the EPS reported is wrong. Even if you used the OS figure pre reconstruction, you still cannot arrive at the N1.45 they reported.

Do they prorate EPS in a year where share reconstruction happens?

Does anyone know why this is happening

I hope the AGM will not be stormy

For the full year 2024 result, Transcorp used the fact that the OS for the entire Business year was not always 10.16bn neither was it always 40.64bn(pre-reconstruction).
Hence they used the Weighted Average of the two OS.

how?
The Weighted average between: The Pre-reconstruction OS & the Cancelled OS

Cancelled OS=
Old OS -New OS =
40.64bn -10.16bn=30.48bn

I think they believe the cancelled OS was still part of the business year capitalisation.🤷

Weighted Average=(40.16bn +30.48bn)/2=
70.64bn/2
=35.32bn OS for the year..

It kind of makes sense the weighted average OS used(35.32bn) is skewed closer to the old Pre-construction Os(40.64bn) since for over 9months of the business year-2024, the old OS was still in play..

If one divides the the controlling interest portion of the PAT by the weighted-OS (35.32bn), one will get how are they arrived at the EPS.

The details are in page 97 as @KarlTom has already pointed out.

Agbalowomeri:
But food prices have gone down

yes I agree.. but not to that extent.

But I think the extent of 40% will be felt more by heavy bulk purchases across items.
Which I never find out yet.

SocialJustice:
In eko Atlantic?

Nope.
but they have a tower already unlike First Bank I think.


Edited: I was wrong.
UBA should follow as you suggested.