₦airaland Forum

IamNat:
Below is how I think the leading Presidential candidates will do in tomorrow's election. The numbers present are in percentage, the sum of the three party's percentage might not be up to 100 in some cases, it's because I believe that a fourth party might take the remaining percentage in that state.

1. It's a big plus for APC that they have a considerable number of Governors from their side in the north, it is the work, structure and influence of this governor that will make up for the Atiku effect in the north.

2. Unfortunately for the PDP, the PDP Governors in the south are not ready to do the work that the APC Governors want to do. Example is the G5 issues.

3. I think the Obi effect will significantly affect the PDP, a sizeable number of the votes for the PDP in the south are definitely going to the LP.


S/N STATE || APC || PDP || LP
1. Abia || 15 || 25 || 65
2. Adamawa || 40 || 60 || 0
3. Akwa Ibom || 25 || 30 || 45
4. Anambra || 10 || 20 || 70
5. Bauchi || 40 || 50 || 10
6. Bayelsa || 25 || 35 || 40
7. Benue || 25 || 40 || 35
8. Borno || 70 || 25 || 5
9. Cross River || 35 || 20 || 45
10. Delta || 25 || 45 || 30
11. Ebonyi || 35 || 25 || 40
12. Edo || 30 || 35 || 35
13. Ekiti || 70 || 15 || 15

14. Enugu || 10 || 50 || 40
15. FCT || 15 || 40 || 45
16. Gombe || 55 || 40 || 5
17. Imo || 35 || 25 || 40
18. Jigawa || 50 || 45 || 5
19. Kaduna || 55 || 40 || 5
20. Kano || 40 || 30 || 0
21. Katsina || 30 || 45 || 0
22. Kebbi || 40 || 35 || 0
23. Kogi || 55 || 30 || 5
24. Kwara || 55 || 35 || 5
25. Lagos || 65 || 5 || 30
26. Nasarawa || 40 || 35 || 25
27. Niger || 55 || 40 || 5
28. Ogun || 60 || 15 || 25
29. Ondo || 65 || 15 || 20
30. Osun || 55 || 40 || 5
31. Oyo || 55 || 30 || 15
32. Rivers || 40 || 15 || 45
33. Sokoto || 40 || 55 || 0
34. Taraba || 25 || 50 || 25
35. Yobe || 50 || 45 || 0
36. Zamfara || 60 || 30 || 0
AVG. TOTAL || 41.53 || 33.89 || 21.67



NOTE: I am a Yoruba and a Christian, I have been defending Asiwaju here because of the rude and mannerless ways of some set of people. I won't be voting Asiwaju because of the Muslim Muslim ticket, but neither will I be voting for Obi. I see better options in the candidate of the SDP or Sowore of the AAC.

Thus, my analysis is solely my opinion and I just want to put it here for references after the election. You don't necessarily have to agree with it, so please, just drop your comments without insults.

Peace!!!

The funny thing here is that you people overestimate Obi chances in this election especially in south south region.
I make bold to say Obi will not win any south south states because I don't know how SS people will leave their party and Okowa as vp to queue behind Obi that's not from SS.
Una eyes go see blood tomorrow .

dochenaj:
Your analysis is the most biased nonsense I have seen online today as far as predictions come.

That you think Tinubu will be ahead of Atiku is just plainly delusional. Winning more Northern states than Atiku, you should call your prediction "The prayer of a Yoruba Christian for Tinubu to win"

But not to worry, it is only a few hours and your doubts will clear.

Sometimes you guys forget this is politics.
Atiku is nobody in the northern politics,what was his percentage in 2007 and 2019 in the north??.
So 14 apc governors will not work for their party but rather go to sleep and allow opposition win their states easily because of nonsense ethnic consideration.
Sebi na only tomorrow,una go cry blood.

Some of LP members are mostly illiterate and love to grandstand..
Inec came out publicly they have no business with mc oluomo as a person,they are only dealing with Lagos state park and garage management.
So how does this judgement affect inec position??.

post=121016597:
Wait for BVAS

Osun state gov. election
2022...823k votes with bvas.
2018...696k votes without bvas..

Mumu..

Mumu cashtivist...
Election held in 1993 but ended with interim government.

I think this sampled poll keep exaggerating Obi chances.
From the history of electoral contests, unknown party has never won a general election anywhere in the world.
Obi has done well raising hope of many undecided and new voters especially the youths but this movement is not enough to defeat an already established parties..
Personally,I don't see any pathway to Obi victory because I don't see him scoring 25% in any 19 northern states.

It's not only tinubu buhari with his cabal want to destroy, they want to drag those of governors along also,reason they are openly dissociating themselves from him.

Follow politicians at your own risk.they can gaslight anybody to gain advantage.
They are all emilokans...

What is there to be lauded??.
We glorify little thing in this country..is ekwueme square not a public property anymore??.
Pdp had their own there I guess,same as Obi the son of the soil.
Abeg make we dey rest for this country nah.

The greatest loser in this election is inec.

Even with bullet proof bvas,over voting was established..

Expect litany of cases arising from the general elections.

The greatest loser in this election is inec.

Even with bullet proof bvas,over voting was established..

Expect litany of cases arising from the general elections.

Inec lost...

Even with bullet proof bvas,over voting was established..

Expect litany of cases arising from the general elections.

Inec lost....

Over voting with bvas?.

Expect litany of cases from the general elections.

fergie001:
Minority decision upheld Adeleke.

Majority Decision - Oyetola (314,931) Adeleke’s 219,666

Shuo!!!!

Almost 200k voters deducted from Adeleke while Oyetola lost 60k votes..
Inec is the major loser in this.

fergie001:
Minority decision upheld Adeleke.

Majority Decision - Oyetola (314,931) Adeleke’s 219,666

This is strange..
Hardly winners of elections lose at the tribunal except at appeal or Supreme Court.
This is rather strange.
Pdp need to study the loopholes in the judgment and appeal.

fergie001:
I don't know the details but it's not in PDP's favour.

Then a very fertile ground for pdp to appeal...

fergie001:
Over-voting established.... Says who!

I doubt they can establish over voting when polling units register were not presented.

fergie001:
Tribunal says the documents APC tendered to prove over-voting were incomplete due to non-inclusion of registers of voters used at the challenged unit.

Elementary school errors and to think these lawyers are SANs will surprise you.

quickberry:
💥UPDATE

Finally, Issues Of Synchronisation And Over Voting Are Currently Being Addressed By The Tribunal.

Whoever Wins This Final Stage Wins The Judgement.

It would be difficult for tribunal to pick one bvas report over another since they were both issued by same inec..time of issue may likely play a role in this.

Indispensable85:
INEC is causing confusion

That is the problem that osun election with this bvas controversy will cause in the general election.
Expect litany of election cases arising from the general elections.

IgOga:
Supreme Court ke? If APC still loose with the tribunal using APC's own document to calculate the winner then it's over .....I know lawyers will encourage APC to keep going till they get to Supreme Court sha....everybody wan to chop

I think Adeleke qualifications will be a major appeal checkpoint considering how many cases like this have been decided by the Supreme Court.

IgOga:
If PDP loose at tribunal they will appeal it.....if APC still loose with their own document admitted then it is over for Oyetola

Is pdp not going to appeal with the same documents they submitted also if they were to lose at the tribunal??.
This cuts across both parties abeg.

Indispensable85:
Since the BVAS data submitted by Apc has been admitted by the tribunal,what does that imply? What about the one issued to pdp by same INEC? Can both be admitted?

By law,since it was validly issued,it would be admitted as well but the tribunal will now has to decide on the merit of those bvas reports.

I watched the rally live on TV, I didn't see where any canopy was erected..
Hope Adeyanju brain is not paining him.

I expect Adeleke to win at the trubunal,that's always the practice...the appeal and Supreme Court are the Koko of cases like this.
Fingers crossed!!!..

Cantonese:
No cash, no problem. Transact online. No car, you have a problem with conductors. Simply make sure you do not live in Orile, while you work in Lekki. If that is the case, prepare for your marathon walk to and fro.

All the CBN has done will protect all Nigerians. With no way to send cash to the polling booths on election day, emi lo kan complains. With no way to receive bribes to vote on election day, emi lo kan supporters complain.

According to one popular cuny cuny fellow on this forum "all we want is a better country".

Some of you are so stupid to think beyond your anus...
So if this policy is intended to affect politicians, is it of tinubu status that would affect?.
Is you poor citizens that will suffer it the most not the ruling class.

garfield1:
Even in cross river that obidients think obi will win,tinubu is out campaigning lp.even pdp is doing better.apc house of assembly candidates are doing ward to ward,Vila to Vila campaign.who is campaigning for obi? These people know only apc and pdp

Leave them,it will soon clear for their eyes...
How they ever imagined obi can win any state outside south east with his structure less party is still baffling me.
Las las,these losers will all acquire ptsd in peace.

Is there something I don't understand from this naira design??.
Is apc or tinubu the only persons that would be affected by this policy?.
Is pdp not going to be affected as well??.
Why are they always sweating to pin any news on tinubu all the time?
Is this how to be an opposition?.

Every contestants are free to complain about the situation in the country but tinubu is not allowed to talk because his party is the one in power.
These same hypocrites are always quick to put buhari failure on tinubu.

YorubaNiBaba:
The shenanigans that worked against Asiwaju during the presidential primaries are at it again. They are set of people masterminding the scarcity of fuel in Nigeria.
Think of it, PMS wasn't scarce during Ileya festival. It wasn't uneasy to come by during the Christmas, neither was there any exorbitant rate at which people procured it during yuletide periods.
Throughout the past seven and half years Buhari had spent in the saddle, Nigerians didn't experience scarcity of fuel for a second, until the general elections are at our doorstep that the saboteurs in government started scheming for a way to set Nigerian masses against the APC.
When they failed to scuttle Tinubu's ambition at the primaries, they were jittery and subsequently frustrated by his rising profile and chances of winning the forthcoming election, hence the plot to sabotage his finishing touches by denying the masses access to fuel, which its biting effect is felt by every single household in the country, the reciprocity of which may not be in favour of APC at polls.
Be that as it may, only God can enthrone or dethrone..... If these people could remember how they planned against this man of shining destiny, Bola Ahmed Tinubu at the beginning and didn't succeed, they would have backed down and think beyond the reasoning of ordinary mortal.
Let me tell you, Tinubu is destined by ALLAH to become Nigeria's next president and no mortal can change it.
Do have a wonderful experience from reading through this piece!...... Ọkan yin o ni balẹ
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It's a planned sabotage..I pointed an attention of a friend earlier today that how come there were no fuel crisis in over 7yrs of buhari but the whole country is now in a mess days to election.
This is pure sabotage in other to make voters vote against the party.

Never knew pdp is this daft to have fallen for apc trap...this is how they will stay engaged with nonsense until the day of election.
No court of law convicted tinubu of any criminal proceeding...his forfeiture case was even a civil case but here they are fighting tooth and nail to divert attention from Atiku spv allegations.
Interesting days ahead.

Obi need to do more in the south east....moving everywhere without working hard on his own region may spell doom for him.This is politics, interests always come first before tribe.
Look at what soludo pulled off today in anambra.