₦airaland Forum

@Ozin,

Despite the Northern elites in PDP, ANPP led by Buhari has been able to win several key states including the biggest state in the North for the past 8yrs. Not to talk of Zamfara, Kebbi, Yobe, Borno, Bauchi etc

^^ You dey deceive yourself, Has enlightenment now touched the Northern part of Nigeria suddenly?

Wasn't it in 2010 that a prominent Northerner married a 13yr old and other Northerners were defending his actions?

How does High tech help ignorance and "follow-follow" mentality, Even in USA which is the base of technology quite a lot of people still believe Obama is a Moslem born in kenya

If the mere mention of Awolowo can make politicians win votes in a much more educated SW and you are mentioning High-tech.

[quote author=Ochi_Agha link=topic=575699.msg7425503#msg7425503 date=1293598638]Sorry but if that is the dream ticket, it will prove disastrous to neglect the Igbos for VP or at least the South-South in the present permutation. Any right thinking politician should know that the winning edge in the coming election will come from the South-East/South-South.[/quote]The SS has their own man as number 1 on a ticket.

Ochi-Agha, You too sit back and reason If your opinion is asked by the CPC on whom to present what would you do?

Which politician in SS can even win any votes against GEJ in the region?

Which political structure in the SE can win 3 states not to talk of 5.

You have SW a voting bloc of 6-7 states on one hand guaranteed No one in CPC alliance would ignore 6-7 states bloc votes and go and struggle with GEJ in the Niger Delta

PapaBrowne:
Nice analysis from some of the guys here!

But much of our assumptions are baseless as they consider only parties!
Who said ACN would sweep Yoruba states?? With Buhari on the Ticket more than half of the SW would vote GEJ.

The strongest voting bloc in the SW is pentecostal Christians. [/b]Their population is massive. The likes of Redeemed, Deeper Life, MFM, Christ Embassy and a host of these large pentecostal denominations are all domiciled mainly in the South West. Across the country, Pentecostals happen to be Jonathan's strongest support base and at the same time are the most antagonistic towards Buhari's ambition.Every politician knows not to ignore this voting block, hence the visit by all aspiring politicians to the stable of Pastor Adeboye. Buhari was there. Jonathan was there. Lots of others have been there.

[b]In a nutshell, a Buhari on an ACN ticket doesn't make any impact on pentecostal christians which happen to be the largest voting bloc in the south west.



In a two way contest between Buhari/ Adebayo(ACN) and GEJ/Sambo(PDP), the outcome would look like this:

South West-      Buhari-  40%       GEJ - 50%    Others - 10%
South East-       Buhari -  10%      GEJ-  80%       "       -  10%
South South-     Buhari-    5%       GEJ-  90%       "       -   5%
North West-      Buhari-  70%      GEJ-  20%    Others    10%
North East -       Buhari-   60%     GEJ-  30%     Others    10%
North Central-   Buhari   50%       GEJ-  40%       "            10%

That would give you 39% for Buhari and[b] 51% for Jonathan[/b].

The North west has Kaduna with the second highest population. First, it has Sambo on the ticket, secondly, there is a massive Christian population in the state, hence Jonathan could get 20% there.
The North East has Adamawa, Taraba and Bauchi. The first two have massive christain populations while Bauchi has a fairly sized one. Jonathan would get a good chunk of votes from here. 30% is fair.
The North Central is the popular Middle Belt. Here, Jonathan should beat Buhari. The Middle beltans are still seething with anger over the current Jos Crisis.They are not in a hurry to see any Fulani man in power any time soon. Plateau, Nassarawa, Benue, Niger, Kogi are all majority Christian states.

Religion and Tribalism would be the factors that would shape the 2011 elections. Not parties! ACN's hold on the southwest is not as strong as the religious sentiments that rule the region. Buhari's purported hold on the North doesn't extend beyond the Sharia states. This election is Jonathan's to loose. Nothing, except some  divine shift can change these facts!!

Papabrowne, You are very funny, Pentecostal what? In the SW? Look who are the people that attend RCCG? They are mainly middle class workers and executives.

If its by internet campaign and writing articles in Newspaper I would agree with you that the Pentecostal movement might have power in SW but in elections proper
How many of them vote during elections? FYI, Most of those who attend RCCG or watched Adeboye and GEJ drama at The redemption camp would be in their homes on election day, Sleeping and watching DSTV. They would even warn all their children not to step out on election day

Go and see the Agberos and those Lagos Island boys, The balogun market women, the Dugbe voters, the Danfo drivers in Ibadan, The illiterate pepper seller n Oyo How many of them care about Pentecost, LOL Soon you go change from pentecostal to rapture.

To the main intricacies of SW- What does the GEJ ticket hold for Yorubas? At best Number 5 man - Deputy Senate president(SS 1, NW 2, SE 3, NC 4th, SW 5th NE 6th), while The Buhari ticket guarantees Yoruba number 2 slot.

Its a no brainer. Do you think Yorubas would vote on a ticket that hold nothing for them? Tell me anytime in history that has happened

I am not sure Niger, Kogi and Nasarawa are majority Xtian states as you claimed, How many Xtians have been elected governors there Like Benue, Plateau.

Rhino.

You know a lot about Northern Politics. if you see the way the common Hausaman supports Buhari, Its like a cult.

I saw one poster in the market they had Buhari and they said he was Maggani Fiyafiya, Something that meant Like Insect killers, that the PDP is the insect.

PDP is the party of the Northern elites, ANPP is the grassroot movement of the North

KnowAll:
I would not vouch for Ogun State as been an entirely ACN Strong-hold. They are planning on fielding d guy Amusan who has already lost two elections. If Dimeji & Iyabo defects to ACN then they might have a chance because Dimeji, Iyabo, & Baba plus all other ACN supporters would be pitching their tent against Gbenga Daniel.

But if those duo of Iyabo & Dimeji are still in  the PDP, I can't see ACN beating PDP.

Is it not d same ACN dat lost Ikorodu which is Ijebu in a way, how much in Ijebu proper.

Which Baba are you linking with ACN? Its like you dont know the mood in the SW is to shame all appearances of OBJ.

OBJ can not even win in his own ward vs the AD in 1999 , Yorubas have always gone in the same direction which is always progressive until OBJ came with the PDP rigging machinery.

You know the only elections the ACN machinery would care about in the whole SW is Ogun and Oyo?

Lagos is a lockdown, Osun Edo and Ekiti No election, Ondo has been agreed with LP for Mimiko to keep the PDP at bay.

By the time all the ACN Juggernauts from Fashola, Oshiomhole, Aregbesola, Fayemi, Tinubu even people like Falae and other Afenifere people storm Ogun and Oyo States OBJ, Daniels and PDP would book the next flight out.

Did you hear about an anti-Akala rally held in Ogbomosho which is Akalas hometown? It had record attendance, Akala had to use soldiers to disperse people and killed many in Akalas hometown.

By the time the ACN machinery storm Ogun and Oyo, OBJ would bail out. Yorubas are simply tired of PDP.

SIA (Senator Ibikunle Amosun) lost those two time contesting against the PDP and AD/AC. Now he is contesting under the ACN So the machinery of AC and ANPP are pooled together.

Let OBJ, Iyabo, Daniels and Dimeji clone themselves, they would be soundly defeated

I think you saw where everyone said "without rigging" yet you chose not to see it

Bauchi might tend towards Buhari/ACN since its a ANPP state

But those middle belt, i would think they would think would go the way of GEJ.

I wont call Adamawa a sure place for Buhari

Still looks 50-50

Beaf:
That would make a Muslim population of approximately 1% if ALL Etsako peeps were Muslims!!!

Are you saying the population of Edo state is 50million for 500,000 to be 1% of it.

My guess would be that Moslems make about 10-15% of Edo state population which is verry Generous

Pifa:
I am not obsessed with Lagos at all. I happen to be a Lagosian (ethnic Lagosian, if you will), although I don't have a Nigerian surname, nor is my mother a Nigerian, and I've spent all but ten years of my life outside Nigeria. Perhaps that is why I don’t have the same visceral attachment to ethnicity as some of you have.

But I just don't see why a street in Lagos cannot be named after Mr. Ojukwu simply because he is not from the west or because Mr. Awolowo does not have one named after him in Enugu. Maybe the east would reciprocate, if Lagos made the first move. Lagos, after all, has always been the foremost trailblazer in contemporary Nigerian culture. It should all be done in the name of reconciliation. Yes, reconciliation! Whatever happened to that?

Obviously you dont know much about lagos State, Do you know how many Streets in lagos are named after Igbos? I gave examples of Ozumba Mbadiwe and Nnamdi Azikwe who have streets named after them

@physicsQED

I dont agree that Edo statet has more Moslem population than oyo or Osun state.

I think over 40% of Yorubas are xtians especially in oyo and Osun State.

if Moslems were in such huge numbers in Edo State, At least they Should get Deputy Governor regularly, Even Kaduna state can hardly field a Moslem/Moslem ticket and win.

Sagamite:
DK, you keep on harping about this Muller achievement. Abegi, pure coincidental, one-off luck.

This is pure undiluted crap, Coincidental one off luck ? Are you serious? I doubt you know the Muller we are talking about.

The guy scored 19 goals last season and 5 World cup goals.

He was just lucky to be in a team playing wonderful football and with a model midfield that were feeding like murrafuckers.

Cant you say the same thing about Messi who has been wonderful at club but not too fantastic at NT. That means Messi should never have won the individual honours he won because He was just lucky to be in a team playing wonderful football and with a model midfield that were feeding like murrafuckers.

There was nothing Muller did individually that showed the exceptionality of the likes of Ronaldo that can be attributed to a prodigal genius. If you have another WC tomorrow, I am sure nothing can guarantee/suggest Muller can repeat the feat. Is he scoring or has ever scored like a WC top-scorer for his clubs? Nah!

Then I say you dont know him This actually confirms it. A guy playing his first season as a professional footballer and scores 19 goals. Abeg stick to Falcons and Golden Eaglets thread

So far what his WC top-scorer achievement says about his ability is no better than what Oleg Salenko WC top-scorer said about him or Angelos Charisteas EC top-scorer says about him.

Again I would say stick to Celebrity and Romance threads. Angelos Charisteas was never top scorer in any competition.

FYI in this section facts are sacred, Brush up the facts  

Wilshere playing less than 20 games (15 games) is playing on par with (even more than) what Balotelli played at the same age of 18 (11 games), Muller (4) and Kroos (17).

Who cares about their ages? They are all young players and all qualify for the award, the fact that one is younger makes no difference.

When awarding Best player of U17 tournaments, would they consider the age that Player A is younger than player B?

And in my opinion, midfield is the hardest place to play and the hardest to breakthrew to for a young player. Lazy buggers like myself play defence because we know it does not involve a lot of running, just brain work to assess the game coming towards you and break it. Midfielders are horses and the creative engine.

Story story How come Strikers win awards time and again? Do you know Muller at all? he plays every role in AM and he has never played as a striker, Most of his goals were scored from his position on the right. Muller is an AM. Would an Arsenal fan call Nasri a striker?

Lukaku and Kroos look really exceptional and prodigies.

Lukaku and Kroos both have better stats than Wilshere and are more deserving of the honours

A Buhari/Yoruba Xtian ticket vs Atiku/SE ticket.

That leaves the SS up for grabs with the GEJ camp going to be disgruntled Also the middle belt would also be up for grabs

The SW goes to Buhari/ACN, The North would be split in the middle, The SE goes to Atiku/SE, remaining the SS, How would the SS react to GEJ being schemed out? The influence of Oshiomhole in this area can also be leveraged.

The GEJ, Duke etc would feel they have lost in the PDP schemings and I would root for the Buhari/ACN to win the Atiku/SE ticket in a free and fair election.

A Buhari/Yoruba xtian ticket vs GEJ/Sambo.

How would the Northern cabal react to their candidate Atiku not winning? Would they go back to their Zoning argument? If they do insist its an Hausamans turn to rule then this favours Buhari.

Also the SE? How would they react to this?

Buhari/ACN vs GEJ/Sambo is almost 50-50 to be though might tilt slightly in favour of GEJ right now since he has the Powers of incumbency.

Nchara:
Adelabu (Adegoke) also has astreet in Umuahia
So naming a street in the SW after Ojukwu will not be abnormal

Azikwe has a street in lagos even one of the biggest roads in Lagos is called Ozumba Mbadiwe

Eziachi:
Can you dig up your past post where you did not say so?
Now you have chosen ILL-EQUIPED. Having a jet that bombed Lagos successfully according to you doesn't sound ill equipped to me. Like I said, some of you say things in the present without remembering the future

You are a funny man, Very funny, You made a claim and you expect me to buttress your point for you?

To you the Biafra army had enough weapons to prosecute the war?  when we even saw documentaries where a Biafra soldiers said 2 soldiers had to share one rifle, When one dies, the other takes his gun.

Well we saw how that panned out for the Biafra soldiers

Eziachi:
I thought you said that Biafra had no weapon, they fought with sticks and bare hands and suddenly their jet bombed your village square. Always be consistent or try having telegraphic mind, so that you cannot forget previous poo poo's of the past.

Can you just dig out the posts which I said Biafra had no weapon?

Does ill-equipped = No weapon to you?

So If you take spears and Cock and shoot guns to war front, Can anyone say you dont have weapons

buzugee:
i think i may have a solution that will appease all parties. what is it that every nigerian loves to eat ? peppersoup. right ? what better way to honor an upper crust and imposing personality like the ikemba than to name our favorite food after him ? so next time you go to peppersoup joint just say, 'madam can i have a bowl of odumegwu' ?

I think nowadays Nigerians love Paraga/Shekpe more than peppersoup. Nigerians also love sex. maybe you should think along those lines

buzugee:
from henceforth, that schikens name is ben johnson

i am quite partial to kuramo beach. from henceforth kuramo beach will be known as odumegwu beach.

But the ashawos and Igbo sellers that own the place might revolt. Maybe they can change the Nnamdi Azikwe Road or Ozumba Mbadiwe


or just call it Ozumba-Ojukwu Road, or Azikwe featuring Odimegwu road

I dont think Edo state has more Moslems.

All their governors and even deputies are all xtians. this cant happen in a State thats even 50-50 like most Yoruba states

Buzugee,

Fela Anikulapo Kuti built a shrine for himself and would definitely not want it named after any body.

What of Kuramo beach? Ayilara/Empire? They are institutions that can be named after any dead person and they are still yet to be taken.

Your xmas sikin escaped where we tied it.

buzugee:
we will be very happy to change airport hotel ikeja to chukwuemeka ojukwu hotel but thats the best we are offering at this point in time. thats a generous offer

Do you know Lagos Airport Hotel is one of Oodua conglomerate one of the Legacies of Awolowo? How would an Oodua company be named after Ojukwu?

buzugee:
we can throw in the alade market on allen avenue just for good measure. from henceforth, it shall be known as odumegwu ojukwu market

What do you think Mr Alade would say about this?

The airport in Enugu should be named after him or even every street in the SE

Where did you get your information that Tinubu would be anywhere on the ticket? Even the news the OP posted did not have Tinubu on the ticket.

Which part of the north would vote for PDP? Kano? that had a ANPP governor for 8yrs? Bauchi? Jigawa, Sokoto, Zamfara or where exactly.

Even Umaru Shinkafi as VP was able to win Zamfara, Sokoto and Kebbi for the AD/APP alliance in 1999 How much more when an ANPP man is going to be President.

If GEJ should win the PDP ticket, what do you think would be the reaction of those Northern elites who wanted Atiku? They can either support GEJ or support a fellow Northerner in Buhari. Regarding which direction they would go, Your guess is as good as mine

Are there no more streets in Onitsha or Aba to name after Ojukwu that you want a street in lagos?

The street that would have been named after him was unfortunately bombed by Biafra jets

[quote author=Ochi_Agha link=topic=575699.msg7424109#msg7424109 date=1293571243]Agreed. But do you actually see ACN merging with other parties outside of the South-West? [/quote]Is this not what the CPC/ACN alliance is all about?

[quote author=Ochi_Agha link=topic=575699.msg7424059#msg7424059 date=1293570464]Sorry but many people view the ACN as a tribal/regional party. I don't see ACN winning outside of the South-West. PDP will rig its way to the top in the North. This election will be won in the East. The South-East is the actual king-maker. The only way ACN could possibly win is if they pick a young ACN who is Igbo. Now that would be a game changer. Sadly, ACN does not see beyond the SW.[/quote]This is not about the ACN alone its about the CPC and with the most respected Northern politician as the presidential candidate bringing with him all the machinery of the ANPP to the table.

APGA cant even boast of being able to win 3 of 5 SE states which makes them further down in the CPC alliance.

The ACN is a regional / tribal party but it guarantees 6 states with Edo possibly thats 7 states out of 36. If any party other than PDP can guarantee 7 states out of 36 then they can have the bargaining power the ACN has

damisalee:
Hi no matter wat obj has done in d past,we no fit just dey happy say him faint by d way ow authentic is dis thread! remember d "i dey kampe" & "i dey laugh".
Make we let am do im time as God want am,i believe b4 him go,changes will come 4rm his end.

'

But you follow us dey happy when Abacha died why make we no happy when OBJ faint?

I don sing so tay my voice don hoarse yet nobody spray me money. Na so una dey do?

Chelsea pipo? And una owner na Millionaire

Thats the main question Tinubu would never be Vice to Buhari.

He would rather be a kingmaker than vie for Political post. 2) Tinubu is a Moslem just like Buhari and a Moslem-Moslem icket wont work.

Any xtian young ACN member from the SW would do the trick

[flash=500,400]http://www.youtube.com/watch=/v/gEGn84Sg4RE[/flash]

As we speak Chime is still in PDP.

The decision would be made in the next few weeks, So how does that work? Would a running mate for Buhari be chosen from PDP?

While The SW have chosen to ally with the ACN any candidate the ACN supports would be voted by Yorubas

debosky:
Worry less about our celebration and go worry about the league table - two Manchester clubs and two North London clubs are currently above you.

DJ DK abeg play 'E dey pain me' for Lateefu.

[flash=500,400]http://www.youtube.com/watch=/v/dne5mzMZZw0[/flash]

[flash=500,400]http://www.youtube.com/watch=/v/MxHkr67qFa0[/flash]